ZitatOriginal von hpopth
Wenn die Bundesbank ihr Gold verkaufen will muß sie ja zunächst die Bestände in Amerika verkaufen ( in Deutschland ist nicht viel vorhanden)und ob die Amerikaner dem Zustimmen ist doch fraglich.
Hallo hpoth,
die Fragestellung ist sicherlich berechtigt. Andererseits werden gerade die Amerikaner wohl auch für einen Verkauf sein, damit der "böse" Goldpreis einen Dämpfer bekommen möge ;-)))
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
Das bedeutet doch, Gold hat sich gegen Zentralbankverkäufe gut entwickelt ... !!!
Aus der FTD vom 29.11.2004
Euro-Notenbanken stoßen Gold ab
Von Mark Schieritz, Frankfurt
Die Notenbanken der Euro-Zone trennen sich von ihren Goldreserven. Wie aus entsprechenden wöchentlichen Berichten der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) hervorgeht, verkaufen die europäischen Währungshüter seit Ende September kontinuierlich ihre Goldvorräte.
Demnach wurden in den vergangenen neun Wochen regelmäßig Bestände abgestoßen. Bislang summiert sich der Wert der Verkäufe auf 290 Mio. Euro. Derartige regelmäßige Goldverkäufe durch die Notenbanken sind ungewöhnlich. In den ersten 32 Wochen des Jahres waren die Notenbanken nur in zwei Wochen aktiv gewesen. Der Verkauf in den vergangenen Wochen könnte darauf hindeuten, dass die europäischen Zentralbanken ihre Bestände systematisch verringern wollen, was den angespannten Staatshaushalten zugute kommen würde.
Hintergrund ist das im März dieses Jahres unterzeichnete zweite Goldabkommen. Darin haben sich die Notenbanken gegenseitig das Recht eingeräumt, in den nächsten fünf Jahren insgesamt 2500 Tonnen des Edelmetalls zu verkaufen. Offiziell haben bislang nur die Niederländer und Österreicher angekündigt, Gold verkaufen zu wollen.
Aus den EZB-Berichten geht nicht hervor, welche Euro-Notenbank die Verkäufe getätigt hat, allerdings handelte es sich nicht um Verkäufe zur Münzprägung.
Verkaufsoption gesichert
Die Bundesbank hat sich eine Verkaufsoption auf 600 Tonnen Gold gesichert, insgesamt besitzt die deutsche Notenbank knapp 3500 Tonnen. Bundesbankpräsident Axel Weber hatte vergangene Woche gesagt, er werde noch in diesem Jahr ankündigen, ob die Notenbank von dieser Option Gebrauch machen werde.
In Bundesbankkreisen gilt es jedoch als wahrscheinlich, dass die Entscheidung positiv ausfällt. Am Goldmarkt wird jetzt darüber spekuliert, ob die Bundesbank bereits vor der offiziellen Ankündigung mit den Verkäufen begonnen hat, was rechtlich möglich wäre. Der Zeitpunkt wäre durchaus günstig: Der Preis für die Feinunze Gold erreicht zurzeit immer neue Höchststände und stieg vergangene Woche erstmals über 450 $, also knapp 340 Euro. In den Büchern der Bundesbank steht die Unze Gold mit einem wesentlich geringeren Wert.
Mit großer Sympathie dürften mögliche Goldverkäufe in Berlin beobachtet werden. Die Differenz zwischen Verkaufserlös und historischem Buchwert des Goldes geht in den Bundesbankgewinn ein, den die Notenbank an Finanzminister Hans Eichel abliefert. Alle noch in diesem Jahr verbuchten Transaktionen kommen dabei dem Staatshaushalt 2005 zugute.
Defizitverfahren ist möglich
Sollte es Deutschland nicht gelingen, den Etatfehlbetrag wieder unter die von der EU gesetzte Marke von 3,0 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts zu drücken, droht ein Verfahren in Brüssel. Aktuellen Schätzungen zufolge wird es für Eichel äußerst knapp, dieses Ziel zu erreichen, sodass nach Meinung von Beobachtern derzeit "jeder Euro zählt".
Nach Schätzung von Experten würde der Verkauf von einer Tonne Bundesbankgold den Gewinn der Notenbank um etwa 10 Mio. Euro erhöhen. Allerdings ist es laut Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, Goldexperte bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, fraglich, ob die Bundesbank, selbst wenn sie es wollte, noch in diesem Jahr genug Gold am Markt loswerden könnte, um den Haushalt zu retten. "Die Notenbank muss vorsichtig agieren, sonst treibt sie den Preis nach unten."
ZitatOriginal von gogh
Mir geht es nicht um das Schwätzen an und für sich.
Hallo gogh,
mir auch nicht. Aber ich hatte halt die irrige Meinung, nach mehrjährigem beschäftigen mit Thistle würdest Du auch einige Infos über Thistle Anleihe haben. Also: Kauf weiter die Aktien bis der Arzt kommt 
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
ZitatAlles anzeigenOriginal von gogh
Mit Verlaub, das Entscheidende ist ganz was anderes.
Nämlich: die Bedingungen für den Wandel in Aktien.
Hallo gogh,
mit Verlaub: Ich bleibe bei meiner abweichenden Meinung. Die Bedingungen werden sich mit Sicherheit im Rahmen einer eventuellen Umstrukturierung ändern.
Weisst Du nichts zu meinen Fragen ???
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
Der Kursverlauf lässt wirklich nicht mehr viel Spielraum nach unten; auch wenn natürlich noch 100 % des Einsatzes verloren werden können ;-)))
Thistle hat für das Hedgen und die Kreditfinanzierung wirklich teuer bezahlt ... Auch die „Durchhaltepolitik“ in den südafrikanischen Projekten (vor allem President Steyn Gold Mines) ging schwer nach hinten los. Dies alles ist nun klar und auch eingepreist. Heute stehen wir vor einer Marktkapitalisierung vor nur noch ca. 10 Mio. EUR.
Thistle wird von vielen als im Prinzip insolvent gesehen. Welche Chancen bestehen noch, dass es doch nicht so kommt ??? Auf der Passivseite der Bilanz finden sich Verbindlichkeiten von 76,8 Mio. USD. Eine Menge Holz, insbesondere beim Vergleich zur aktuellen Marktkapitalisierung. Davon entfallen allein 47,2 Mio. USD auf die realisierten Hedge Verluste. Zusammen mit dem Ursprungskredit von 5,9 Mio. USD entfallen nun also 53,1 Mio. USD (wenn ich alles richtig kapiere) auf Meridian Capital Limited. Ich vermute mal, die haben nicht gekauft, weil Sie gar keine Chance mehr bei Thistle sehen, wollen aber natürlich möglichst wenig an die Aktionäre abgeben ...
Bleiben vor allem noch die Wandelanleihen über 24 Mio. USD (mit starken 10 % verzinslich). Ist diese Anleihe eigentlich börsennotiert ? Wo kann man deren Kursverlauf ansehen ? Was ist über die Struktur der Bondholder bekannt ?
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
ZitatOriginal von Twinson
mit dem Drachen sollte man aber evtl. noch warten, weiß das derzeit wieder etliche Drachen bestellt wurden und diese werden im Groß über Ebay abgewickelt. Im EK sind diese mittlerweile bereits zu 475 Euro zu haben; daher sollte auf die PP Version nochmal ein Stück günstiger werden...
Hallo Twinsson,
wo kann man denn den Drachen zu 475 EUR beziehen ? Da hätte ich auch Interesse !
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
ZitatOriginal von Silbertaler
Ich habe den ersten Silberbrief aufmerksam und sehr interessiert durchgelesen. Erst mal finde ich, dass der erste Ansatz schon sehr anerkennswert ist.
Hallo Silbertaler,
so sieht auch mein Grundsatzurteil aus. Ich finde es auch bedenklich, wenn man als mehr fundamental orientierter Anleger gleich die "Dreiecke" verdammt ... Charttechnik hat sicher auch Ihre Berechtigung und kann insbesondere für Timing-Gesichtspunkte wertvolle Ergänzungshinweise zur Fundamentalanalyse bieten.
Unterm Strick denke ich, ist der Silberbrief auf jeden Fall sein Geld wert. Eine Schwierigkeit könnte in der "kostenlos-Kultur" des Internets liegen, viele User sind einfach (noch) nicht bereit, für gute Recherchearbeit auch etwas zu bezahlen ...
Gruß
Schwabenpfeil
A faction of Café members are pro the new GLD entity and a faction are against. In time we ought to know what the real deal is.
What I find troubling is that Barclays is also coming out with their own gold ETF. I can’t think of a firm more bearish on gold the past three years than Barclays. They have been bearish ALL THE WAY up and remain bearish. Their analysis has been beyond awful. You have to wonder then why are they coming out with this gold vehicle at this point in time.
Several Café members excerpted a small portion of the GLD filing for your perusal:
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/bro…any&CIK=0001222333&owner=
"Their management has "no experience of operating an investment vehicle like the Trust....."
"The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940..."
The Trust does not have "the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936."
"The operations of the Trust and the Sponsor depend on support from the WGC (World Gold Council). This support may not be available in the future...."
The "Shareholders will not have the rights enjoyed by investors in certain other vehicles."
"Crises may motivate large-scale sales of gold which could decrease the price of gold and adversely affect an investment in the Shares."
"The Trust's gold may be subject to loss, damage, theft or restriction on access."
"The Trust may not have adequate sources of recovery if its gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed and recovery may be limited, even in the event of fraud, to the market value of the gold at the time the fraud is discovered."
Shareholders’ recourse against the Trust, the Trustee and the Sponsor, under New York law, the Custodian, under English law, and any subcustodians under the law governing their custody operations is limited. The Trust will not insure its gold. The Custodian will maintain insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate. The Trust will not be a beneficiary of any such insurance and does not have the ability to dictate the existence, nature or amount of coverage.
Therefore, Shareholders cannot be assured that the Custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the gold held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. In addition, the Custodian and the Trustee will not require any direct or indirect subcustodians to be insured or bonded with respect to their custodial activities or in respect of the gold held by them on behalf of the Trust.
Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s gold which is not covered by insurance and for which no person is liable in damages."
"The ability of the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal limited, which increases the possibility that the Trust may not use due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold."
"Gold held in the Trust's unallocated gold account and any Authorized Participant's unallocated gold account will not be segregated from the Custodian's assets. If the Custodian becomes insolvent, its assets may not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant. In addition, in the event of the Custodian's insolvency, there may be a delay and costs incurred in identifying the bullion held in the Trust's allocated gold account."
"In issuing Baskets, the Trustee will rely on certain information received from the Custodian which is subject to confirmation after the Trustee has relied on the information. If such information turns out to be incorrect, Baskets may be issued in exchange for an amount of gold which is more or less than the amount of gold which is required to be deposited with the Trust."
Golden Star Resources had some bumps in the 3rd quarter as far as costs and mining were concerned. From what I know this is almost all behind them. So is their $401 realized average gold price from their sales. Who knows, GSS could average $440 per ounce this quarter. The difference goes directly to the bottom line.
Last year with gold at $420, GSS traded as high as $8.64. With gold $32 higher, the share price is another halfer. Go figure.
Golden Star Resources chart (hit GSS in the US)
http://www.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx
I have the utmost confidence in the superb management of each company. Both of these firms are home run plays. If not, big egg on my face and a leaner wallet than I would like.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
The gold shares showed signs of life with the XAU gaining 2.66 to 109.87 and the HUI jumping 6.11 to 243.32. However, many gold companies remains woefully undervalued.
Two of my major holdings can’t get out of their own way. Last year Golden Star Resources ($4.35 up a 7 pitiful cents) and ECU Silver (31 cents Cdn, up 1 cent) were two of the hottest stocks out there. This year they are bow-wows. Having spoken to management of both firms recently, they are either two of the greatest buys out in the gold/silver share universe, or I am clueless on each.
Michel Roy, ECU CEO, has spent years turning this firm around and FINALLY has got the company just where he wanted it all along. The market doesn’t think so, halving its share price from last year. Michel:
Dear shareholders,
It is sad that the market did not fully appreciate the importance of the last press release for your Company. The settling of all litigations related to the operation of our mines has been the prime objective of management since I accepted the position of president in 1999. This has created an intolerable situation whereas the planned share pricing for the private placement needed to finalize this key agreement was not in line with the market. We faced a choice of either risking a default on the settlement agreement resulting in losing five years of efforts or changing the private placement pricing to reflect the current market conditions.
Management's top priority is to maximize the value of the Company for our shareholders. In order to achieve this we have been working on: 1) eliminating the risks related to the Company because of the legal problems, 2) increasing the reserves base and 3) achieving positive cash flows. We have clearly achieved the first two objectives and we are well on our way to achieving the third. On December 1st we will make the second payment of US$500,000 to settle once and for all, the outstanding litigations. We will complete the life of reserves mine planning next week so that the independent consultant can finalize the 43-101 compliant report on the reserves. We need a few more numbers before we can release the milling results but you can expect a general update early next week. Our planning should assure us of being very cash-flow positive as early as this coming January.
We are currently working on the 2005 financial projections These projections will be based on various scenarios which will include our existing production, production from the planned expansion of our current mill, production from custom milling, and production from acquisitions,
Truly yours,
Michel Roy
ECU Silver chart (hit ECU in CA)
More from “Mr. Gold”:
Friday, November 26, 2004, 2:29:00 PM EST
Gold Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
The unexpected, considered impossible by some, has occurred, yet the world is asleep to the event.
On this momentous currency day, the gold market was all but closed, with only light European activity. The USD commodity markets were closed. What happened today is really bad news for the shorts and the derivative-laden gold producers who are asleep with their "no-margin call", margin-call risks. .
The U.S. dollar closed below the low of 1995, and, as we all know, the Mother of All BEARISH Necklines recently gave up the ghost. .
I believe government spinners will start spinning how they can cut the deficits while still reducing taxes and warring in many places. I think it may be difficult for the U.S. Treasury Secretary to give speeches about the "Strong Dollar Policy," because, like the error-prone weatherman who fails to look out his window before making forecasts, he has failed to check the quote on the U.S. dollar. The only way he could keep a straight face is to genuinely not have a clue about what he speaks.
I don't think it matters one hoot if all the firepower of the U.S. government is turned on stopping the dollar's decline, because in my opinion, a pull-back to the underside of the BEARISH neckline of all time is the best-case scenario for the Humpty Dumpty Dollar. That is the best that can be done, yet it may not even happen. .
This is serious. This is the real-time death-rattle of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice. This is the birth of the Russian ruble, Chinese currency and Islamic dinar as currencies of preference. I still look at the euro as a basket of junk, preferring, as you know, the Swiss and Cando as my currencies of choice. The Swiss, because it is the traditional currency of the old European super-wealthy, and the Cando, because it's a resource-based nation, even if a few provinces are somewhat strange. One takes pride in being among the last socialist jurisdictions on the planet, while another is convinced it is in Europe. But they gave the world John Candy and half the original cast of "Saturday Night Live", so they must be okay. They are holding hostage the one man who should be the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Secretary of the Treasury, all at once, and that is Canadian Dr. Reuven Brenner. He is the only renowned economist who has both the theory and practical application of economics and the markets down cold. Free Brenner and send him to the U.S. Fed, please.
CLICK HERE and pin these charts on your wall to remember the day the U.S. dollar died.
Build up your financial foundation with gold strength. Do not allow small reactions to shake you out. Traders buy the break-out from short-term down-trends in gold. Keep your gold shares. The game has taken a most serious turn much earlier than it should have.
-END-
From “Mr. Gold”:
Friday, November 26, 2004, 12:14:00 PM EST
Gold Community Warning!
Author: Jim Sinclair
China has announced that it is considering the sale of U.S. dollar-denominated Federal Debt held as reserves by the Central Bank.
This comes on the heels of Russia's decision to consider doing the same thing as a means of shifting to Euro-based items. Keep in mind, central banks do not hold significant dollars as dollars, or euros as euros, but rather as debt instruments, so the reduction of dollars in favor of other currencies mainly means the sale of U.S. Federal Debt Instruments and the purchase of alternative debt instruments in their place.
Mark today, November 26th, as the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice.
The U.S. dollar is now trading directly on the 1995 low, having broken down the BEARISH NECKLINE of the Head-and-Shoulders of all time, with a measured move between .7300 minimum and .5100 maximum.
Intervention aside, the U.S. dollar dies once we have three closes below .8197. I would be floored if there is no attempt to prevent this here and now, as defined by next week. However, it is totally hopeless in my opinion, as no intervention can stop the crash of the common stock of the U.S.A., the U.S. dollar.
Hold gold -- your investment and insurance -- close to your chest, and do not listen to the pea-brains that have taken the place of the Prechterites within the gold community, possibly costing you the opportunity of a lifetime as they look for tops.
Gold shares will soon out-perform gold itself, as new and more knowledgeable international investors enter the smallest capitalized investment market on the planet, gold shares.
Avoid those juniors and major gold companies that have derivative risk. Do not buy the bull of "margin-free gold derivatives" as that is such spin, and even makes the U.S. government look like kindergarten spinners.
Change your mortgages immediately to a fixed rate from a floating rate. Make sure no debt you hold balloons in 2007. If you can pay down debt immediately, do it! If you do not own real gold, it is late, but there is time to buy some. Do not sell good, well-managed properties, shares of gold exploration and development companies that are free of derivative risk and have no insider stock-option plan, or royalty gold shares with the same criteria of excellent gold companies.
The next four years are going to be dillies.
Do not listen to gold-community nuts that spend their time always looking for tops.
-END-
On the gold shares:
Dear Bill,
"I have been thinking about the HUI and XAU under-performing gold and sent this chart back on April 29, 2004 and I insert the comments which you kindly included in the April 29, 2004 MIDAS commentary.
As I have told you I started in the brokerage business in 1980. In late summer 1982 the Dow broke 1000 prompting me to explain to each of my clients that I felt the stock market landscape had changed, as a new, all time high had been reached. Even though I was armed with charts and graphs from the best of the day, including Mr. Yale Hirsch's famous long-term chart, few clients invested. The Dow reached 1500 not long after and investors started to put their toes in the water. The Dow promptly corrected back to the neckline and investors bailed. The famous Bull Market followed. I view this market in much the same way. You break resistance, like a plane going through a sound barrier with a bang, followed by the hush of no resistance. Like the Dow in 1982 and the XAU now, they were powerful breakouts. We have pulled back to powerful support. I believe, given the fundamentals behind the initial move, these support levels will hold. This is not a short-term prediction but a long-term view. What has changed except the share price? Mr. Hamilton stated last week, assuming nothing has changed in his work since, that gold shares and gold are well priced at these levels. Investors could be selling gold at bargain prices today when we look in the rearview mirror 5 years from now."
So where are we today?
In the fall of 1992 and the spring of 1993, I over weighted clients in gold shares. I began taking money off the table at the end of 1993 and early in 1994 when shares like Agnico Eagle had tripled. At that time investors were buying gold shares and gold funds. Gold shares didn't do much during the next year other than drift sideways (I repurchased too early, I can say in hindsight), although some individual gold companies did very well, many investors sold in late 1995. This year has been similar in that we began the year, late December 2003 early January 2004, with a high followed by a retest in April when gold reached a little higher high but had no follow through. Today, some gold companies are making new highs like Nova, Greystar, Linear and Virginia while others like Golden Star and Minefinders are lagging. This could be the result of several things; tax loss selling, mutual fund companies selling and short term investors selling. You may recall that in late 2001 Kinross sold from $1.40 down to $0.95 (pre reverse split) in days because a large fund was selling, only to rebound in 2002 by 100%.
In short, for the investors who buy lawn mowers in the winter and snow blowers in the summer, this could be a very good time to buy quality producing or near production gold and silver shares.
Have a great Thanksgiving Bill (I am thankful for many things not the least is of which was the formation of GATA).
John C. Newell
A very sad note to bring to your attention – a Chris Powell GATA dispatch:
GATA's great friend, novelist Arthur Hailey, dies at 84 at home in Bahamas
9a ET Friday, November 26, 2004
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The novelist Arthur Hailey, a great and long-time supporter of GATA and gold, died Wednesday. His obituary from today's edition of The New York Times is appended. We will convey our condolences and gratitude to his family.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Novelist Arthur Hailey of 'Airport' Dies at 84
By Michelle O'Donnell
The New York Times
Friday, November 26, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/26/nyregion/26hailey.html? pagewanted=all
Arthur Hailey, the best-selling author whose exhaustively researched suspense novels like "Airport" and "Hotel" also became screen hits, died in his sleep on Wednesday at his home in the Bahamas, his agent, Nancy Stauffer, said yesterday. He was 84.
His wife, Sheila, told The Associated Press that doctors believed that he had suffered a stroke.
Mr. Hailey produced a string of best-sellers, achieving international fame in 1968 with his novel "Airport" (Doubleday), a page-turner about an airport manager's ordeal after a bomber boards a plane flown by the manager's womanizing brother-in-law. It inspired a 1970 movie starring Burt Lancaster and Dean Martin.
Other novels by Mr. Hailey include "Hotel" (Doubleday, 1965), "The Moneychangers" (Doubleday, 1975), and "Overload" (Doubleday, 1979). There are 170 million copies of his books in print, The Associated Press reported.
Critics often dismissed Mr. Hailey's success as the result of a formulaic style in which he centered a crisis on an ordinary character, then inflated the suspense by hopping among multiple related plotlines. But he was so popular with readers that his books were guaranteed to become best-sellers.
If there was a formula to Mr. Hailey's work, it was certainly in his approach to each book. Mr. Hailey, who dropped out of school at 14, would spend about a year researching a subject, followed by six months reviewing his notes, and, finally, about 18 months writing the book, according to the Dictionary of Literary Biography.
That aggressive research -- tracking rebel guerrillas in the Peruvian jungle at age 67 for "The Evening News" (1990), or reading 27 books on the hotel industry for "Hotel" -- gave his novels a realism that appealed to readers, even as some contemporary critics complained that he used it to mask a lack of literary talent. Such criticism seemed to hardly thwart the prodigious Mr. Hailey, who twice came out of retirement to produce top sellers.
Arthur Hailey was born to working-class parents on April 5, 1920, in Luton, England. At 14, after he failed to win a scholarship that his family's poor finances required, he left school, despite a strong interest in reading and writing. "The saddest day of my life," he told The Daily Telegraph of London in 1998.
He overcame his lack of education -- and an inclination to airsickness -- to become an airman in the Royal Air Force during World War II.
After the war, disillusioned with what he saw as a socialist trend in postwar Britain, he moved to Canada, where he worked first at the Maclean-Hunter Publishing Co., then in sales.
Although he had written on the side, he remained largely unsatisfied in his work until a psychological profile suggested that his vast creativity needed another outlet, according to the Dictionary of Literary Biography.
The turning point came in 1955, when he was aboard a flight and began daydreaming about what would happen if all the passengers and crew were incapacitated and if it were left to him to land the plane.
In a blitz of work over two weekends and five weeknights, he produced a teleplay that became "Flight Into Danger," produced to critical acclaim by the Canadian Broadcasting Co. and later sold to NBC.
"I was now able to write full time," Mr. Hailey wrote in Maclean's in 2000. "That was all I ever wanted to do."
In addition to his wife, Mr. Hailey is survived by six children: Roger, John, and Mark, from a marriage that ended in divorce; and Jane, Steven and Diane, from his second marriage.
-END-
Arthur came to visit Reg Howe and me at a London Gold Conference several years ago. What a nice guy and a HUGE GATA supporter. During the Denver Gold Group conference he announced in a public letter that he dumped all his Barrick Gold stock because of their hedging policies and bought into the non-hedgers. A great move financially and one which received a good deal of publicity.
We shall really miss this good man who was constantly in contact with Chris Powell and me over the years.
Am I too over the top on my criticisms of The Gold Cartel crowd. Don’t think so. Can’t get on the case of these bums enough. The latest on ANOTHER one of them. AIG made hundreds of millions on their participation in the gold/silver scam, especially in silver.
AIG to Pay $126 Million to Settle U.S. Probes
By Jonathan Stempel
Reuters
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=6911964
NEW YORK -- American International Group Inc. on Wednesday said it agreed to pay $126 million to settle federal criminal and regulatory probes into whether the big insurer helped two companies fraudulently inflate earnings.
AIG announced the settlements after The Wall Street Journal said federal prosecutors were examining whether Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, AIG's 79-year-old chief executive, in 2001 manipulated AIG's stock price to save money in buying insurer American General Corp.
The insurer still faces New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's probe into insurance brokers' alleged collusion with insurers to fix prices. Spitzer accused broker Marsh & McLennan Cos. in a lawsuit of bid rigging, which led to the ouster of its chief executive, Greenberg's son Jeffrey……
The Journal, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, said the criminal inquiry into Hank Greenberg centers on AIG's $23 billion purchase of Houston's American General in August 2001. It said the inquiry is in the early stages and may not lead to charges.
Greenberg is said to have called the office of Richard Grasso, then chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, to ask him for help in propping up AIG's share price, to keep AIG from having to issue more stock to pay for American General.
Though Grasso was out of the office that day, traders who worked for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. unit Spear, Leeds & Kellogg ultimately bought AIG shares, though it was unclear if this resulted from Greenberg's request, the newspaper said.
Goldman Sachs declined to comment.
-END-
At the New Orleans Investment Conference my friend Frank Veneroso went on and on how the copper market was rigged on the long side by a number of dealers around the world. He was vehement in his assertions.
On that note one of your fellow Café members sent us the following as a reminder what the CFTC is all about and how full of crud they are (a keeper when the gold scandal breaks down the road). From Bruce:
This is very, very interesting and relevant.
This CFTC (The Commodity Futures Trading Commission) action against a scheme to "manipulate the price of Copper" is older news here and yes I know it is not Silver or Gold. BUT it is very relevant to "today" what is happening now in what the CFTC is saying, claiming, and promising in their commitment for the future to protect "all markets" from price manipulation.
The CFTC states, "This is an historic moment in the Commission's work to protect the people of the United States, the United States cash and futures markets and thir participants against market manipulation. Today's settlement imposes a substantial civil monetary penalty($150 million paid to the United States Treasury) in response to misconduct which caused very serious harm to the United States markets and users of copper. This settlement comes after a long and difficult investigation, in which the Commission has worked in unprecedented cooperation with regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom, in particular the Financial Services Authority, and with the Japanese Government."
"This settlement culminates one important part of an extensive investigation that has demonstrated our ability to address the challenges of today's international markets. THE RESULT TODAY DEMONSTRATES OUR COMMMITTMENT TO PROTECT OUR MARKETS AND THE CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES *FROM PRICE MANIPULATION NO MATTER WHERE THE THREAT ORIGINATES*."
I myself add, WHAT ABOUT GOLD ??. Bruce!
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf98/opa4144-98.htm
***
On the New Yorker article:
Bill, after I read the New Yorker article by Surowiecki, I just had to write something.
I suppose by now all gold bugs have been apprised of James Surowieckis hatchet on gold in the New Yorker
http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki
It’s salutary to read the people who disagree with the GATA perspective on gold, especially if the appropriate conclusion is that we are right and THEY are wrong. I don’t know why this appeared in the New Yorker instead of MONEY magazine, where a similar attack on gold wackos was published not long ago, but I felt it would be appropriate to point the usual slants of the gold haters. Surowiecki has obviously been reading some of the gold bug stuff:
One gold bug even filed a lawsuit against various government officials and big banks alleging a conspiracy to sabotage gold prices with surreptitious sales. Another compared a skeptical journalist to Joseph Goebbels. Notice how he juxtaposes Goebbels (I don’t know the provenance of that comment) with Reg Howe s lawsuit, which was not dismissed on its merits not even close. (A lot of respected financial writers who are not gold bugs have wondered how the price movement of gold could make sense without manipulation.)
Surowiecki starts his piece with a reference to Ozzie Osbourne’s insistence on an ear, nose and throat specialist backstage at his performances, leading up to Bette Midlers European tour at which she insisted on being paid in gold. The relevance of Ozzie Osbourne here escapes me except to create an atmosphere of crazy obsessions, which the author later attributes to gold bugs.
But more to the point, the author makes some awkward comparisons and draws questionable conclusions. For example, after pointing out that gold is not selling above its price in 1988 (while the S&P 500 has almost quadrupled), he notes that in 1980 ten ounces of gold would have bought you a nice car. Today, it would get you a nice bike. I’m not sure what he considers a nice car, but a $4500 bike is way out of my league. Of course, its absurd to pick the spike of $880 an ounce as a benchmark. We all know that those poor bastards that bought gold at $800 and hung on to it suffered terribly, but that’s the case of everyone who buys at the peak of a bull market. We all know as well that gold went into a 20-year bear market, as some of us fear the equities market may do in the near future. He also notes that the price of gold is up forty per cent in the past two years (due to the trade deficit and war). If we take the bottom as $250 and the recent price as $450, I reckon the increase to be a lot more than 40%.
Surowiecki then goes into the gold-is-a-commodity, albeit not an especially useful one. Of course, we’ve all been conditioned by history, by myth, by Mr.T to think of gold as money. Had to throw Mr.T in there, I suppose he is one of the cranks. Well Gold IS money, always has been. Then he gives himself away:
The world’s central banks and the International Monetary Fund still have vaults full of bullion, even though currencies are no longer backed by gold. Governments hold on to it as a kind of magic symbol, a way of reassuring people that their money is real.
Any subscriber to LeMetropoleCafe has real doubts about just how full those vaults really are, AND there must be some reason why the public needs assurance that their money is real. AND its interesting that the only way central banks can make their money appear real is by having a lot of gold.
Just because it has a long history of being used as money doesn’t mean that it has a future. In the end, our trust in gold is no different from our trust in a piece of paper with one dollar written on it. The value of a currency is, ultimately, what someone will give you for it whether in food, fuel, assets, or labor.
What Bette Midler was saying, I think, and I wholeheartedly agree, is I don’t trust that paper, but I trust gold. What will ultimately drive rank-and-file investors into gold is the fear of a depreciating dollar. When I wanted to buy Euros and Pounds a couple of years ago, my little bank in my little city really wasn’t prepared for such a transaction so I bought gold and silver coins. Those coins are worth about the same in Euros and Pounds as they were then, but they’re worth about 30% more in dollars, and, frankly I trust those coins more than Euros and Pounds. There is a noticeable absence in Surowiecki’s piece about the depreciating dollar. I’d like to end with a scene from forty years ago when I was stationed in the Army in Korea. In those days we were paid in MPCs (Military Pay Currency). We paid for our purchases at the PX in MPCs and you could exchange them for Korean Hwan with the ladies in back of the Korean National Bank, although greenbacks were worth about 10% more. There were a lot of MPCs floating around the city of Seoul, the product of various black markets (I like to think of it as a gray market, less sinister a form of exchange not exactly legal, but necessitated by currency and product manipulation by our respective governments). Then, one day, all the gates were closed and we had to turn in our MPCs for new MPCs. Koreans appeared from all over trying to trade MPCs to the GIs. The old money was soon worthless. MPCs were fiat paper money. We all thought greenbacks would live forever. Now I’m not so sure. Were the old MPCs money? I have a 1,000,000 drachmae (Greek) note from the 1940s. Is it money?
(How many of you remember the shock of seeing the copper showing on the edges of our quarters? Didn’t you feel cheated?)
Ransford Pyle
Gainesville, Florida
Down Under thoughts:
G'day Bill,
Your comments on Wednesday:
"Incredibly, there is. The gold industry itself is beyond hope. What a bunch of lightweights! No other industry in the world would allow these in-your-face price-fixing shenanigans to continue without an uproar - and I mean a BIG UPROAR. Well, we know they are a gutless lot."
If one looks at the "Hedging positions" of companies over the last 8 years or so, and then you realize that the majority of "top" management of the gold companies was/is largely run by Accountants who actually implemented the hedge books, it should come as no surprise that this "top" management is actually "top" heavy, and thus lacks the drive to succeed in finding and developing gold mines. They are, generally, "whimps"!!!
Och aye,
Haggis
And now is back up:
What follows are some excerpts from Bloomberg (the entire Bloomberg piece which was already circulated to Café members) who commented on the essay (with my comments in parentheses:
Pimco's McCulley Says
'Little to Fear' From Dollar's Slide
By Monee Fields-White
Bloomberg News Service
Thursday, November 25, 2004
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…sid=aCGwucPkXkgw&refer=us
The United States, as a net international borrower, has "little to fear" from the dollar's slide, said Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co.
A falling dollar may spark faster inflation, which typically benefits borrowers, McCulley said in a monthly report on Pimco's Web site. The firm manages the world's largest bond fund. The U.S. currency is down almost 17 percent since the end of 2001, based on the Federal Reserve's Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index.
"If you are a borrower, higher inflation is actually your friend," said McCulley, who helps manage about $100 billion of the firm's $400 billion of assets. Treasury Secretary John Snow should "quit embarrassing himself and the president by uttering the words 'strong dollar.'"….
(McCulley sounds like MIDAS on Charlie McCarthy Snow)
The Fed has "won the war on inflation," McCulley said in May. The inflation rate for personal consumption expenditures, the largest component of gross domestic product, was 0.7 percent excluding food and energy prices in the third quarter, the lowest since the last quarter of 1962, the government said on Oct. 29.
(If you want to understand one of the motives of rigging the price of gold by the Gold Cartel and why the Wall Street bullion dealers have offered such inept gold analyses to the investing public the past three years, one can ponder simplistically on what McCulley is saying, especially over the past month. Gold has only been able to rally in dollar terms. Each time it is about to break out in euros, for example, it is bopped. Those who say gold is only rallying in dollar terms are correct as of late. Thus, the INFLATION ISSUE is diffused. Wall Street and the establishment cite how gold is only rallying because the dollar is tanking, not because there is any US inflation out there. By keeping the gold move related only to the dollar drop, the bond vigilantes are less spooked. If gold were approaching $500 at the moment, which it should be, talk of inflation would be everywhere.
On a side note, McCulley contradicts his boss Bill Gross who recently stated that inflation was understated in the US, as in understated CPI numbers, etc.)
"The right time for America to debauch its currency, as all right-thinking countries who issue debt in their own currency should want to do, is when a falling dollar inflicts more growth pain on countries with appreciating currencies than it does inflationary pain on the United States," McCulley said.
(Inflicting pain is not the way to make friends and influence people. Course the US is good at this and one of the reasons we are hated around the world. It is because of our arrogance. Take the suppression of the gold price, for example. Had it not been for the price-rigging, the soaring gold price would have greatly stimulated the economies of many poor countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Employment would have plentiful (miners etc.) and there would have been tens of millions more funds to address their horrific disease problems.)
-END-
Mitsui may not be an official member of The Gold Cartel, however, Andy Smith is their most visible spokesman. Talk about garbage. This is the sort of crud he has fed to the press the entire move up. Yes, he has called a few pops to the upside, always with the same snide remarks. However, even when calling the upside he made it known he was really long-term bearish. Thus, market goes up. He is right. Market goes down his bearishness was validated. A win-win situation for this brilliant pundit. I like Andy personally, but have had it with him professionally. He has been wrong for years and will be for years to come.
Emails poured in yesterday on the following titled email sent out by GATA’s Chris Powell
[GATA] Bond boss admits that the great scheme is to rip off the developing world:
***
The reason the emails poured in was the essay was taken down. It was initially posted at:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/L…mmentary/FF/2004/FF_Nov_2 004.htm
