Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

    New high silver close for the move:


    December silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4


    The silver open interest fell 2746 contracts to 118,975. The DEC fell over 13,000 contracts to 22,000. Of interest is the silver open interest is 4,000 off its peak made earlier this year, while gold is 50,000 contracts over its 305,000 peak earlier this year. A LOT of room for silver specs to pile in on the long side.


    Special note: Something is in the works for silver which should give the shorts a real jolt. Should know before the end of the year if it will come to pass. Am unable to elaborate any further except to say it will make those who refuse to understand gold and silver are money to take notice. Will be wake-up call time, a significant one!


    All the gold and silver longs on the Comex are winners. All the shorts have losing positions.

    What’s going on out there?


    *As mentioned Friday, the so-called bullion dealer pros like Citigroup are neutral to bearish. If you went to them about whether to buy gold shares, you would run away as fast as possible after reading their analysis (inept), what with the likes of their prediction of an average gold price of $425 for next year. Citi, like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, is nothing but a disinformation machine.


    *MOST of the long-term gold bulls are short-term bearish. Almost to a man and woman (the attractive Aden Sisters), they are looking for gold to be bopped anywhere from $18 to $75 before the gold bull gets on tracks. Meanwhile, gold is going almost straight up.


    It has risen $17 to $20 since the New Orleans Investment Conference when speaker after speaker called for a correction. What confuses me is how few of the market pundits have respected the breakout out through $430, a talked about key resistance level for a very long time. This was a big deal and gold has rallied $23.40 since then, yet the higher the price goes up, the more the gold bulls yawn. Certainly they could not be paying attention to what gold did after taking out $330, another very key technical level.


    *As oft-repeated in this column for years, there is almost NO understanding of what this gold market is really all about. Who out there talks of how the price was artificially suppressed for nearly a decade by the corrupt Gold Cartel? Who speaks of the monstrous 16,000 tonne short position? These are essential aspects of the gold market which are not even mentioned, much less discussed.


    This is CRITICAL information for understanding gold. The gold price at $450 is an illusion. As mentioned by the Russian Central Bank, gold should be $750 JUST to have kept up with inflation since 1980. Gold is undervalued at the moment by $300 per ounce at a minimum. Gold in the $450’s is chump change stuff. This doesn’t mean gold explodes to $750 overnight. The Gold Cartel and "officialdom" are doing all they can to keep the price under "control." The problem for them is physical demand is soaring just as the gold supply is dwindling. Meanwhile, the dollar is a disaster, not just waiting to happen, but happening.


    *Both stunning and unprecedented. For the FOURTH week in a row, the small specs went more short than long, according to the latest COT report released this afternoon - to the tune of another 2,000 contracts. Never seen anything like this. Normally, the little guy would be pouring into the long side with gold fever exuberance. Not this time. He is looking for a correction in the gold price along with MOST of the pundits. This is not the sort of company one would like to have in a market which is trending practically straight up.


    Something else to cover here. There is little fear out there among the investing public as to what I believe is going to hit the US and world financial markets like a tidal wave. When our stock market is belted, the US interest rates soar, the US real estate market is shocked (or some combination thereof), FEAR will set in and set in BIG TIME. This will add an entire new dimension to gold/goldshare demand in the months to come.


    Gold is going to explode. If not by the end of the year, then by early next year. There are too many reasons to own gold. Once the investing public around the world catches on to what we know, they will all want IN. Investment light bulbs are going to go off at the same time everywhere. The tiny gold market will not be able to handle the demand. There will be few offers in the gold share market and the shares will go berserk in a vacuum. This time is coming and few out there "get it.


    This is why it is so important to stay in position. This is THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime. Time to be there.

    November 29 – Gold $453.40 up $1.70 – Silver $7.74 up 6 cents


    Gold And Silver Longs Cleaning Up, Shorts Confused/CLASSIC Bull Market Action


    You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one...John Wooden


    GO GATA!!!


    Both gold and silver came in on the downside, shooting to fill the gaps left from their Wednesday finish. This is a result from two up days in overseas trading while the Comex was closed. Before even an hour of trading was up, mission accomplished.


    From there on it was CLASSIC bullish market action in both precious metals. Silver led the way, leaping 15 cents out of nowhere. It took out its overnight spike high of $7.75 basis the December contract made on the evening of November 17th. The floor views this bullishly as the "trapped" money who bought into that rally is now off the hook.


    In very unusual action for gold, it ground its way back up after falling early. It made new high after new high in deliberate, calm trading. From a technical standpoint it is JUST the sort of market performance us bulls like to see. The gold bears and those out of the market have to have that nagging, squeamish feeling as to the way gold continues to trade. It bends only slightly here and there, but does not break, and then quietly makes new high after new high 16-year closes.


    One of the main reasons why is the cash market is on fire and has been ALL THE WAY UP. This comment has been of a staple of the MIDASes for many months now, thanks to John Brimelow and our STALKER source input. Ironically, it is hardly mentioned anywhere else. Even if this critical piece of information is occasionally mentioned, it is only in passing. There is almost no emphasis on one of the most essential aspects of the entire market, that being the strength of the physical arena. Incredible!!


    Seasonal input: the strongest gold seasonal part of the year kicks in the middle of November. So far so good. For silver it is the end of November. So far so good.


    Received a call from our STALKER source who relayed this feedback from his London precious metals dealer friend:


    *Have gone from a correction is coming, to 50-50 on that correction (this mentioned in recent MIDAS commentary) to one of significance not likely at all.


    *Demand for physical gold "AMAZES" him.


    *Greenspan’s comments a week ago Friday has people stirred up.


    *General consensus of the dealers over there very positive, in complete contrast with the market pundits, especially the ones on this side of the ocean.


    *Looking for $466 to $468 within two weeks. This dealer is known to be extremely conservative.


    *Previous silver prediction of $8 to $8.50 by year-end still the same.


    My friend Harvey Gordon of El Dorado gold in Phoenix continues to report of "generic" gold coins. Harvey says he has never seen it like this before.


    The gold open interest fell 217 contracts to 352,421. The DEC dropped over 53,000 contracts to around 55,000. There was a good deal of switching today. Still, this is a large number.


    Good news: a comeback in the gold euro price which fell all the way down to 338+ at one point. It has rallied back and closed at 341.80. It must take out 344 to kick the gold market into full bullish gear as far as the Europeans are concerned.


    The euro itself closed at 132.76, down .17 with the dollar gaining .15 to 81.96.


    The norm has been for the pundits to talk of the gold market as nothing more than a dollar bear market. In an overall big picture sense, this has been fairly true. However, if you go back a couple of years ago, when the dollar began its swan dive, you will find gold broke higher first, for weeks, BEFORE the dollar began to fall. Gold LED the dollar plunge, not vice-versa.


    My point is many of the pundits cannot see the forest for the trees. Gold has risen mostly in dollar terms, especially this last part of the run, because The Gold Cartel has engineered it this way to dampen gold investment excitement in the rest of the world. By keeping gold in check in various currencies, it has also affected the profitability of many gold producers. Costs, relative to the dollar gold price have soared, and a number have not benefited from the dollar rise in the price. This has led to subdued interest in the gold shares, which has kept public interest in the sector at minimal levels, hence partly the reason for the mediocre Café Sentiment Indicator. All this while gold soars to one 16-year high after another, flying more than $20 above a key resistance level at $430.


    Speaking of the Café Sentiment Indicator, I was stunned to return home from my Thanksgiving Day Holiday in San Diego to see it had sunk to a 4. The rise in the price of gold is creating no interest or excitement as far as the general public is concerned. Never seen anything like this in all my life. You won’t find any more bullish charts than these, yet few are paying attention:


    December gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4


    Gold Weekly
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

    Zitat

    Original von hpopth


    Wenn die Bundesbank ihr Gold verkaufen will muß sie ja zunächst die Bestände in Amerika verkaufen ( in Deutschland ist nicht viel vorhanden)und ob die Amerikaner dem Zustimmen ist doch fraglich.



    Hallo hpoth,


    die Fragestellung ist sicherlich berechtigt. Andererseits werden gerade die Amerikaner wohl auch für einen Verkauf sein, damit der "böse" Goldpreis einen Dämpfer bekommen möge ;-)))



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Das bedeutet doch, Gold hat sich gegen Zentralbankverkäufe gut entwickelt ... !!!



    Aus der FTD vom 29.11.2004


    Euro-Notenbanken stoßen Gold ab 



    Von Mark Schieritz, Frankfurt


    Die Notenbanken der Euro-Zone trennen sich von ihren Goldreserven. Wie aus entsprechenden wöchentlichen Berichten der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) hervorgeht, verkaufen die europäischen Währungshüter seit Ende September kontinuierlich ihre Goldvorräte.



    Demnach wurden in den vergangenen neun Wochen regelmäßig Bestände abgestoßen. Bislang summiert sich der Wert der Verkäufe auf 290 Mio. Euro. Derartige regelmäßige Goldverkäufe durch die Notenbanken sind ungewöhnlich. In den ersten 32 Wochen des Jahres waren die Notenbanken nur in zwei Wochen aktiv gewesen. Der Verkauf in den vergangenen Wochen könnte darauf hindeuten, dass die europäischen Zentralbanken ihre Bestände systematisch verringern wollen, was den angespannten Staatshaushalten zugute kommen würde.


    Hintergrund ist das im März dieses Jahres unterzeichnete zweite Goldabkommen. Darin haben sich die Notenbanken gegenseitig das Recht eingeräumt, in den nächsten fünf Jahren insgesamt 2500 Tonnen des Edelmetalls zu verkaufen. Offiziell haben bislang nur die Niederländer und Österreicher angekündigt, Gold verkaufen zu wollen.



    Aus den EZB-Berichten geht nicht hervor, welche Euro-Notenbank die Verkäufe getätigt hat, allerdings handelte es sich nicht um Verkäufe zur Münzprägung.



    Verkaufsoption gesichert


    Die Bundesbank hat sich eine Verkaufsoption auf 600 Tonnen Gold gesichert, insgesamt besitzt die deutsche Notenbank knapp 3500 Tonnen. Bundesbankpräsident Axel Weber hatte vergangene Woche gesagt, er werde noch in diesem Jahr ankündigen, ob die Notenbank von dieser Option Gebrauch machen werde.



    In Bundesbankkreisen gilt es jedoch als wahrscheinlich, dass die Entscheidung positiv ausfällt. Am Goldmarkt wird jetzt darüber spekuliert, ob die Bundesbank bereits vor der offiziellen Ankündigung mit den Verkäufen begonnen hat, was rechtlich möglich wäre. Der Zeitpunkt wäre durchaus günstig: Der Preis für die Feinunze Gold erreicht zurzeit immer neue Höchststände und stieg vergangene Woche erstmals über 450 $, also knapp 340 Euro. In den Büchern der Bundesbank steht die Unze Gold mit einem wesentlich geringeren Wert.



    Mit großer Sympathie dürften mögliche Goldverkäufe in Berlin beobachtet werden. Die Differenz zwischen Verkaufserlös und historischem Buchwert des Goldes geht in den Bundesbankgewinn ein, den die Notenbank an Finanzminister Hans Eichel abliefert. Alle noch in diesem Jahr verbuchten Transaktionen kommen dabei dem Staatshaushalt 2005 zugute.



    Defizitverfahren ist möglich


    Sollte es Deutschland nicht gelingen, den Etatfehlbetrag wieder unter die von der EU gesetzte Marke von 3,0 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts zu drücken, droht ein Verfahren in Brüssel. Aktuellen Schätzungen zufolge wird es für Eichel äußerst knapp, dieses Ziel zu erreichen, sodass nach Meinung von Beobachtern derzeit "jeder Euro zählt".



    Nach Schätzung von Experten würde der Verkauf von einer Tonne Bundesbankgold den Gewinn der Notenbank um etwa 10 Mio. Euro erhöhen. Allerdings ist es laut Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, Goldexperte bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, fraglich, ob die Bundesbank, selbst wenn sie es wollte, noch in diesem Jahr genug Gold am Markt loswerden könnte, um den Haushalt zu retten. "Die Notenbank muss vorsichtig agieren, sonst treibt sie den Preis nach unten."

    Zitat

    Original von gogh
    Mir geht es nicht um das Schwätzen an und für sich.



    Hallo gogh,


    mir auch nicht. Aber ich hatte halt die irrige Meinung, nach mehrjährigem beschäftigen mit Thistle würdest Du auch einige Infos über Thistle Anleihe haben. Also: Kauf weiter die Aktien bis der Arzt kommt :D


    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil



    Hallo gogh,


    mit Verlaub: Ich bleibe bei meiner abweichenden Meinung. Die Bedingungen werden sich mit Sicherheit im Rahmen einer eventuellen Umstrukturierung ändern.


    Weisst Du nichts zu meinen Fragen ???



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Der Kursverlauf lässt wirklich nicht mehr viel Spielraum nach unten; auch wenn natürlich noch 100 % des Einsatzes verloren werden können ;-)))


    Thistle hat für das Hedgen und die Kreditfinanzierung wirklich teuer bezahlt ... Auch die „Durchhaltepolitik“ in den südafrikanischen Projekten (vor allem President Steyn Gold Mines) ging schwer nach hinten los. Dies alles ist nun klar und auch eingepreist. Heute stehen wir vor einer Marktkapitalisierung vor nur noch ca. 10 Mio. EUR.


    Thistle wird von vielen als im Prinzip insolvent gesehen. Welche Chancen bestehen noch, dass es doch nicht so kommt ??? Auf der Passivseite der Bilanz finden sich Verbindlichkeiten von 76,8 Mio. USD. Eine Menge Holz, insbesondere beim Vergleich zur aktuellen Marktkapitalisierung. Davon entfallen allein 47,2 Mio. USD auf die realisierten Hedge Verluste. Zusammen mit dem Ursprungskredit von 5,9 Mio. USD entfallen nun also 53,1 Mio. USD (wenn ich alles richtig kapiere) auf Meridian Capital Limited. Ich vermute mal, die haben nicht gekauft, weil Sie gar keine Chance mehr bei Thistle sehen, wollen aber natürlich möglichst wenig an die Aktionäre abgeben ...


    Bleiben vor allem noch die Wandelanleihen über 24 Mio. USD (mit starken 10 % verzinslich). Ist diese Anleihe eigentlich börsennotiert ? Wo kann man deren Kursverlauf ansehen ? Was ist über die Struktur der Bondholder bekannt ?



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Zitat

    Original von Twinson



    mit dem Drachen sollte man aber evtl. noch warten, weiß das derzeit wieder etliche Drachen bestellt wurden und diese werden im Groß über Ebay abgewickelt. Im EK sind diese mittlerweile bereits zu 475 Euro zu haben; daher sollte auf die PP Version nochmal ein Stück günstiger werden...



    Hallo Twinsson,



    wo kann man denn den Drachen zu 475 EUR beziehen ? Da hätte ich auch Interesse !



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Zitat

    Original von Silbertaler
    Ich habe den ersten Silberbrief aufmerksam und sehr interessiert durchgelesen. Erst mal finde ich, dass der erste Ansatz schon sehr anerkennswert ist.



    Hallo Silbertaler,


    so sieht auch mein Grundsatzurteil aus. Ich finde es auch bedenklich, wenn man als mehr fundamental orientierter Anleger gleich die "Dreiecke" verdammt ... Charttechnik hat sicher auch Ihre Berechtigung und kann insbesondere für Timing-Gesichtspunkte wertvolle Ergänzungshinweise zur Fundamentalanalyse bieten.


    Unterm Strick denke ich, ist der Silberbrief auf jeden Fall sein Geld wert. Eine Schwierigkeit könnte in der "kostenlos-Kultur" des Internets liegen, viele User sind einfach (noch) nicht bereit, für gute Recherchearbeit auch etwas zu bezahlen ...



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    A faction of Café members are pro the new GLD entity and a faction are against. In time we ought to know what the real deal is.


    What I find troubling is that Barclays is also coming out with their own gold ETF. I can’t think of a firm more bearish on gold the past three years than Barclays. They have been bearish ALL THE WAY up and remain bearish. Their analysis has been beyond awful. You have to wonder then why are they coming out with this gold vehicle at this point in time.


    Several Café members excerpted a small portion of the GLD filing for your perusal:


    http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/bro…any&CIK=0001222333&owner=


    "Their management has "no experience of operating an investment vehicle like the Trust....."


    "The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940..."


    The Trust does not have "the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936."


    "The operations of the Trust and the Sponsor depend on support from the WGC (World Gold Council). This support may not be available in the future...."


    The "Shareholders will not have the rights enjoyed by investors in certain other vehicles."


    "Crises may motivate large-scale sales of gold which could decrease the price of gold and adversely affect an investment in the Shares."


    "The Trust's gold may be subject to loss, damage, theft or restriction on access."


    "The Trust may not have adequate sources of recovery if its gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed and recovery may be limited, even in the event of fraud, to the market value of the gold at the time the fraud is discovered."


    Shareholders’ recourse against the Trust, the Trustee and the Sponsor, under New York law, the Custodian, under English law, and any subcustodians under the law governing their custody operations is limited. The Trust will not insure its gold. The Custodian will maintain insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate. The Trust will not be a beneficiary of any such insurance and does not have the ability to dictate the existence, nature or amount of coverage.


    Therefore, Shareholders cannot be assured that the Custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the gold held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. In addition, the Custodian and the Trustee will not require any direct or indirect subcustodians to be insured or bonded with respect to their custodial activities or in respect of the gold held by them on behalf of the Trust.


    Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s gold which is not covered by insurance and for which no person is liable in damages."


    "The ability of the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal limited, which increases the possibility that the Trust may not use due care in the safekeeping of the Trust's gold."


    "Gold held in the Trust's unallocated gold account and any Authorized Participant's unallocated gold account will not be segregated from the Custodian's assets. If the Custodian becomes insolvent, its assets may not be adequate to satisfy a claim by the Trust or any Authorized Participant. In addition, in the event of the Custodian's insolvency, there may be a delay and costs incurred in identifying the bullion held in the Trust's allocated gold account."


    "In issuing Baskets, the Trustee will rely on certain information received from the Custodian which is subject to confirmation after the Trustee has relied on the information. If such information turns out to be incorrect, Baskets may be issued in exchange for an amount of gold which is more or less than the amount of gold which is required to be deposited with the Trust."

    Golden Star Resources had some bumps in the 3rd quarter as far as costs and mining were concerned. From what I know this is almost all behind them. So is their $401 realized average gold price from their sales. Who knows, GSS could average $440 per ounce this quarter. The difference goes directly to the bottom line.


    Last year with gold at $420, GSS traded as high as $8.64. With gold $32 higher, the share price is another halfer. Go figure.


    Golden Star Resources chart (hit GSS in the US)


    http://www.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx


    I have the utmost confidence in the superb management of each company. Both of these firms are home run plays. If not, big egg on my face and a leaner wallet than I would like.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    The gold shares showed signs of life with the XAU gaining 2.66 to 109.87 and the HUI jumping 6.11 to 243.32. However, many gold companies remains woefully undervalued.


    Two of my major holdings can’t get out of their own way. Last year Golden Star Resources ($4.35 up a 7 pitiful cents) and ECU Silver (31 cents Cdn, up 1 cent) were two of the hottest stocks out there. This year they are bow-wows. Having spoken to management of both firms recently, they are either two of the greatest buys out in the gold/silver share universe, or I am clueless on each.


    Michel Roy, ECU CEO, has spent years turning this firm around and FINALLY has got the company just where he wanted it all along. The market doesn’t think so, halving its share price from last year. Michel:


    Dear shareholders,


    It is sad that the market did not fully appreciate the importance of the last press release for your Company. The settling of all litigations related to the operation of our mines has been the prime objective of management since I accepted the position of president in 1999. This has created an intolerable situation whereas the planned share pricing for the private placement needed to finalize this key agreement was not in line with the market. We faced a choice of either risking a default on the settlement agreement resulting in losing five years of efforts or changing the private placement pricing to reflect the current market conditions.


    Management's top priority is to maximize the value of the Company for our shareholders. In order to achieve this we have been working on: 1) eliminating the risks related to the Company because of the legal problems, 2) increasing the reserves base and 3) achieving positive cash flows. We have clearly achieved the first two objectives and we are well on our way to achieving the third. On December 1st we will make the second payment of US$500,000 to settle once and for all, the outstanding litigations. We will complete the life of reserves mine planning next week so that the independent consultant can finalize the 43-101 compliant report on the reserves. We need a few more numbers before we can release the milling results but you can expect a general update early next week. Our planning should assure us of being very cash-flow positive as early as this coming January.


    We are currently working on the 2005 financial projections These projections will be based on various scenarios which will include our existing production, production from the planned expansion of our current mill, production from custom milling, and production from acquisitions,


    Truly yours,
    Michel Roy


    ECU Silver chart (hit ECU in CA)


    http://www.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx

    More from “Mr. Gold”:



    Friday, November 26, 2004, 2:29:00 PM EST
    Gold Summary


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    The unexpected, considered impossible by some, has occurred, yet the world is asleep to the event.


    On this momentous currency day, the gold market was all but closed, with only light European activity. The USD commodity markets were closed. What happened today is really bad news for the shorts and the derivative-laden gold producers who are asleep with their "no-margin call", margin-call risks. .


    The U.S. dollar closed below the low of 1995, and, as we all know, the Mother of All BEARISH Necklines recently gave up the ghost. .


    I believe government spinners will start spinning how they can cut the deficits while still reducing taxes and warring in many places. I think it may be difficult for the U.S. Treasury Secretary to give speeches about the "Strong Dollar Policy," because, like the error-prone weatherman who fails to look out his window before making forecasts, he has failed to check the quote on the U.S. dollar. The only way he could keep a straight face is to genuinely not have a clue about what he speaks.


    I don't think it matters one hoot if all the firepower of the U.S. government is turned on stopping the dollar's decline, because in my opinion, a pull-back to the underside of the BEARISH neckline of all time is the best-case scenario for the Humpty Dumpty Dollar. That is the best that can be done, yet it may not even happen. .


    This is serious. This is the real-time death-rattle of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice. This is the birth of the Russian ruble, Chinese currency and Islamic dinar as currencies of preference. I still look at the euro as a basket of junk, preferring, as you know, the Swiss and Cando as my currencies of choice. The Swiss, because it is the traditional currency of the old European super-wealthy, and the Cando, because it's a resource-based nation, even if a few provinces are somewhat strange. One takes pride in being among the last socialist jurisdictions on the planet, while another is convinced it is in Europe. But they gave the world John Candy and half the original cast of "Saturday Night Live", so they must be okay. They are holding hostage the one man who should be the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Secretary of the Treasury, all at once, and that is Canadian Dr. Reuven Brenner. He is the only renowned economist who has both the theory and practical application of economics and the markets down cold. Free Brenner and send him to the U.S. Fed, please.


    CLICK HERE and pin these charts on your wall to remember the day the U.S. dollar died.


    Build up your financial foundation with gold strength. Do not allow small reactions to shake you out. Traders buy the break-out from short-term down-trends in gold. Keep your gold shares. The game has taken a most serious turn much earlier than it should have.


    -END-

    From “Mr. Gold”:



    Friday, November 26, 2004, 12:14:00 PM EST
    Gold Community Warning!


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    China has announced that it is considering the sale of U.S. dollar-denominated Federal Debt held as reserves by the Central Bank.


    This comes on the heels of Russia's decision to consider doing the same thing as a means of shifting to Euro-based items. Keep in mind, central banks do not hold significant dollars as dollars, or euros as euros, but rather as debt instruments, so the reduction of dollars in favor of other currencies mainly means the sale of U.S. Federal Debt Instruments and the purchase of alternative debt instruments in their place.


    Mark today, November 26th, as the end of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice.


    The U.S. dollar is now trading directly on the 1995 low, having broken down the BEARISH NECKLINE of the Head-and-Shoulders of all time, with a measured move between .7300 minimum and .5100 maximum.


    Intervention aside, the U.S. dollar dies once we have three closes below .8197. I would be floored if there is no attempt to prevent this here and now, as defined by next week. However, it is totally hopeless in my opinion, as no intervention can stop the crash of the common stock of the U.S.A., the U.S. dollar.


    Hold gold -- your investment and insurance -- close to your chest, and do not listen to the pea-brains that have taken the place of the Prechterites within the gold community, possibly costing you the opportunity of a lifetime as they look for tops.


    Gold shares will soon out-perform gold itself, as new and more knowledgeable international investors enter the smallest capitalized investment market on the planet, gold shares.


    Avoid those juniors and major gold companies that have derivative risk. Do not buy the bull of "margin-free gold derivatives" as that is such spin, and even makes the U.S. government look like kindergarten spinners.


    Change your mortgages immediately to a fixed rate from a floating rate. Make sure no debt you hold balloons in 2007. If you can pay down debt immediately, do it! If you do not own real gold, it is late, but there is time to buy some. Do not sell good, well-managed properties, shares of gold exploration and development companies that are free of derivative risk and have no insider stock-option plan, or royalty gold shares with the same criteria of excellent gold companies.


    The next four years are going to be dillies.


    Do not listen to gold-community nuts that spend their time always looking for tops.


    -END-

    On the gold shares:


    Dear Bill,
    "I have been thinking about the HUI and XAU under-performing gold and sent this chart back on April 29, 2004 and I insert the comments which you kindly included in the April 29, 2004 MIDAS commentary.



    As I have told you I started in the brokerage business in 1980. In late summer 1982 the Dow broke 1000 prompting me to explain to each of my clients that I felt the stock market landscape had changed, as a new, all time high had been reached. Even though I was armed with charts and graphs from the best of the day, including Mr. Yale Hirsch's famous long-term chart, few clients invested. The Dow reached 1500 not long after and investors started to put their toes in the water. The Dow promptly corrected back to the neckline and investors bailed. The famous Bull Market followed. I view this market in much the same way. You break resistance, like a plane going through a sound barrier with a bang, followed by the hush of no resistance. Like the Dow in 1982 and the XAU now, they were powerful breakouts. We have pulled back to powerful support. I believe, given the fundamentals behind the initial move, these support levels will hold. This is not a short-term prediction but a long-term view. What has changed except the share price? Mr. Hamilton stated last week, assuming nothing has changed in his work since, that gold shares and gold are well priced at these levels. Investors could be selling gold at bargain prices today when we look in the rearview mirror 5 years from now."


    So where are we today?


    In the fall of 1992 and the spring of 1993, I over weighted clients in gold shares. I began taking money off the table at the end of 1993 and early in 1994 when shares like Agnico Eagle had tripled. At that time investors were buying gold shares and gold funds. Gold shares didn't do much during the next year other than drift sideways (I repurchased too early, I can say in hindsight), although some individual gold companies did very well, many investors sold in late 1995. This year has been similar in that we began the year, late December 2003 early January 2004, with a high followed by a retest in April when gold reached a little higher high but had no follow through. Today, some gold companies are making new highs like Nova, Greystar, Linear and Virginia while others like Golden Star and Minefinders are lagging. This could be the result of several things; tax loss selling, mutual fund companies selling and short term investors selling. You may recall that in late 2001 Kinross sold from $1.40 down to $0.95 (pre reverse split) in days because a large fund was selling, only to rebound in 2002 by 100%.


    In short, for the investors who buy lawn mowers in the winter and snow blowers in the summer, this could be a very good time to buy quality producing or near production gold and silver shares.


    Have a great Thanksgiving Bill (I am thankful for many things not the least is of which was the formation of GATA).
    John C. Newell

    A very sad note to bring to your attention – a Chris Powell GATA dispatch:


    GATA's great friend, novelist Arthur Hailey, dies at 84 at home in Bahamas


    9a ET Friday, November 26, 2004


    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:


    The novelist Arthur Hailey, a great and long-time supporter of GATA and gold, died Wednesday. His obituary from today's edition of The New York Times is appended. We will convey our condolences and gratitude to his family.


    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


    * * *


    Novelist Arthur Hailey of 'Airport' Dies at 84


    By Michelle O'Donnell
    The New York Times
    Friday, November 26, 2004


    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/26/nyregion/26hailey.html? pagewanted=all


    Arthur Hailey, the best-selling author whose exhaustively researched suspense novels like "Airport" and "Hotel" also became screen hits, died in his sleep on Wednesday at his home in the Bahamas, his agent, Nancy Stauffer, said yesterday. He was 84.


    His wife, Sheila, told The Associated Press that doctors believed that he had suffered a stroke.


    Mr. Hailey produced a string of best-sellers, achieving international fame in 1968 with his novel "Airport" (Doubleday), a page-turner about an airport manager's ordeal after a bomber boards a plane flown by the manager's womanizing brother-in-law. It inspired a 1970 movie starring Burt Lancaster and Dean Martin.


    Other novels by Mr. Hailey include "Hotel" (Doubleday, 1965), "The Moneychangers" (Doubleday, 1975), and "Overload" (Doubleday, 1979). There are 170 million copies of his books in print, The Associated Press reported.


    Critics often dismissed Mr. Hailey's success as the result of a formulaic style in which he centered a crisis on an ordinary character, then inflated the suspense by hopping among multiple related plotlines. But he was so popular with readers that his books were guaranteed to become best-sellers.


    If there was a formula to Mr. Hailey's work, it was certainly in his approach to each book. Mr. Hailey, who dropped out of school at 14, would spend about a year researching a subject, followed by six months reviewing his notes, and, finally, about 18 months writing the book, according to the Dictionary of Literary Biography.


    That aggressive research -- tracking rebel guerrillas in the Peruvian jungle at age 67 for "The Evening News" (1990), or reading 27 books on the hotel industry for "Hotel" -- gave his novels a realism that appealed to readers, even as some contemporary critics complained that he used it to mask a lack of literary talent. Such criticism seemed to hardly thwart the prodigious Mr. Hailey, who twice came out of retirement to produce top sellers.


    Arthur Hailey was born to working-class parents on April 5, 1920, in Luton, England. At 14, after he failed to win a scholarship that his family's poor finances required, he left school, despite a strong interest in reading and writing. "The saddest day of my life," he told The Daily Telegraph of London in 1998.


    He overcame his lack of education -- and an inclination to airsickness -- to become an airman in the Royal Air Force during World War II.


    After the war, disillusioned with what he saw as a socialist trend in postwar Britain, he moved to Canada, where he worked first at the Maclean-Hunter Publishing Co., then in sales.


    Although he had written on the side, he remained largely unsatisfied in his work until a psychological profile suggested that his vast creativity needed another outlet, according to the Dictionary of Literary Biography.


    The turning point came in 1955, when he was aboard a flight and began daydreaming about what would happen if all the passengers and crew were incapacitated and if it were left to him to land the plane.


    In a blitz of work over two weekends and five weeknights, he produced a teleplay that became "Flight Into Danger," produced to critical acclaim by the Canadian Broadcasting Co. and later sold to NBC.


    "I was now able to write full time," Mr. Hailey wrote in Maclean's in 2000. "That was all I ever wanted to do."


    In addition to his wife, Mr. Hailey is survived by six children: Roger, John, and Mark, from a marriage that ended in divorce; and Jane, Steven and Diane, from his second marriage.


    -END-


    Arthur came to visit Reg Howe and me at a London Gold Conference several years ago. What a nice guy and a HUGE GATA supporter. During the Denver Gold Group conference he announced in a public letter that he dumped all his Barrick Gold stock because of their hedging policies and bought into the non-hedgers. A great move financially and one which received a good deal of publicity.


    We shall really miss this good man who was constantly in contact with Chris Powell and me over the years.

    Am I too over the top on my criticisms of The Gold Cartel crowd. Don’t think so. Can’t get on the case of these bums enough. The latest on ANOTHER one of them. AIG made hundreds of millions on their participation in the gold/silver scam, especially in silver.


    AIG to Pay $126 Million to Settle U.S. Probes


    By Jonathan Stempel
    Reuters
    Wednesday, November 24, 2004


    http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=6911964


    NEW YORK -- American International Group Inc. on Wednesday said it agreed to pay $126 million to settle federal criminal and regulatory probes into whether the big insurer helped two companies fraudulently inflate earnings.


    AIG announced the settlements after The Wall Street Journal said federal prosecutors were examining whether Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, AIG's 79-year-old chief executive, in 2001 manipulated AIG's stock price to save money in buying insurer American General Corp.


    The insurer still faces New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's probe into insurance brokers' alleged collusion with insurers to fix prices. Spitzer accused broker Marsh & McLennan Cos. in a lawsuit of bid rigging, which led to the ouster of its chief executive, Greenberg's son Jeffrey……


    The Journal, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, said the criminal inquiry into Hank Greenberg centers on AIG's $23 billion purchase of Houston's American General in August 2001. It said the inquiry is in the early stages and may not lead to charges.


    Greenberg is said to have called the office of Richard Grasso, then chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, to ask him for help in propping up AIG's share price, to keep AIG from having to issue more stock to pay for American General.


    Though Grasso was out of the office that day, traders who worked for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. unit Spear, Leeds & Kellogg ultimately bought AIG shares, though it was unclear if this resulted from Greenberg's request, the newspaper said.


    Goldman Sachs declined to comment.


    -END-

    At the New Orleans Investment Conference my friend Frank Veneroso went on and on how the copper market was rigged on the long side by a number of dealers around the world. He was vehement in his assertions.


    On that note one of your fellow Café members sent us the following as a reminder what the CFTC is all about and how full of crud they are (a keeper when the gold scandal breaks down the road). From Bruce:


    This is very, very interesting and relevant.


    This CFTC (The Commodity Futures Trading Commission) action against a scheme to "manipulate the price of Copper" is older news here and yes I know it is not Silver or Gold. BUT it is very relevant to "today" what is happening now in what the CFTC is saying, claiming, and promising in their commitment for the future to protect "all markets" from price manipulation.


    The CFTC states, "This is an historic moment in the Commission's work to protect the people of the United States, the United States cash and futures markets and thir participants against market manipulation. Today's settlement imposes a substantial civil monetary penalty($150 million paid to the United States Treasury) in response to misconduct which caused very serious harm to the United States markets and users of copper. This settlement comes after a long and difficult investigation, in which the Commission has worked in unprecedented cooperation with regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom, in particular the Financial Services Authority, and with the Japanese Government."


    "This settlement culminates one important part of an extensive investigation that has demonstrated our ability to address the challenges of today's international markets. THE RESULT TODAY DEMONSTRATES OUR COMMMITTMENT TO PROTECT OUR MARKETS AND THE CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES *FROM PRICE MANIPULATION NO MATTER WHERE THE THREAT ORIGINATES*."


    I myself add, WHAT ABOUT GOLD ??. Bruce!


    http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf98/opa4144-98.htm


    ***

    On the New Yorker article:


    Bill, after I read the New Yorker article by Surowiecki, I just had to write something.


    I suppose by now all gold bugs have been apprised of James Surowieckis hatchet on gold in the New Yorker


    http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki


    It’s salutary to read the people who disagree with the GATA perspective on gold, especially if the appropriate conclusion is that we are right and THEY are wrong. I don’t know why this appeared in the New Yorker instead of MONEY magazine, where a similar attack on gold wackos was published not long ago, but I felt it would be appropriate to point the usual slants of the gold haters. Surowiecki has obviously been reading some of the gold bug stuff:


    One gold bug even filed a lawsuit against various government officials and big banks alleging a conspiracy to sabotage gold prices with surreptitious sales. Another compared a skeptical journalist to Joseph Goebbels. Notice how he juxtaposes Goebbels (I don’t know the provenance of that comment) with Reg Howe s lawsuit, which was not dismissed on its merits not even close. (A lot of respected financial writers who are not gold bugs have wondered how the price movement of gold could make sense without manipulation.)


    Surowiecki starts his piece with a reference to Ozzie Osbourne’s insistence on an ear, nose and throat specialist backstage at his performances, leading up to Bette Midlers European tour at which she insisted on being paid in gold. The relevance of Ozzie Osbourne here escapes me except to create an atmosphere of crazy obsessions, which the author later attributes to gold bugs.


    But more to the point, the author makes some awkward comparisons and draws questionable conclusions. For example, after pointing out that gold is not selling above its price in 1988 (while the S&P 500 has almost quadrupled), he notes that in 1980 ten ounces of gold would have bought you a nice car. Today, it would get you a nice bike. I’m not sure what he considers a nice car, but a $4500 bike is way out of my league. Of course, its absurd to pick the spike of $880 an ounce as a benchmark. We all know that those poor bastards that bought gold at $800 and hung on to it suffered terribly, but that’s the case of everyone who buys at the peak of a bull market. We all know as well that gold went into a 20-year bear market, as some of us fear the equities market may do in the near future. He also notes that the price of gold is up forty per cent in the past two years (due to the trade deficit and war). If we take the bottom as $250 and the recent price as $450, I reckon the increase to be a lot more than 40%.


    Surowiecki then goes into the gold-is-a-commodity, albeit not an especially useful one. Of course, we’ve all been conditioned by history, by myth, by Mr.T to think of gold as money. Had to throw Mr.T in there, I suppose he is one of the cranks. Well Gold IS money, always has been. Then he gives himself away:


    The world’s central banks and the International Monetary Fund still have vaults full of bullion, even though currencies are no longer backed by gold. Governments hold on to it as a kind of magic symbol, a way of reassuring people that their money is real.


    Any subscriber to LeMetropoleCafe has real doubts about just how full those vaults really are, AND there must be some reason why the public needs assurance that their money is real. AND its interesting that the only way central banks can make their money appear real is by having a lot of gold.


    Just because it has a long history of being used as money doesn’t mean that it has a future. In the end, our trust in gold is no different from our trust in a piece of paper with one dollar written on it. The value of a currency is, ultimately, what someone will give you for it whether in food, fuel, assets, or labor.


    What Bette Midler was saying, I think, and I wholeheartedly agree, is I don’t trust that paper, but I trust gold. What will ultimately drive rank-and-file investors into gold is the fear of a depreciating dollar. When I wanted to buy Euros and Pounds a couple of years ago, my little bank in my little city really wasn’t prepared for such a transaction so I bought gold and silver coins. Those coins are worth about the same in Euros and Pounds as they were then, but they’re worth about 30% more in dollars, and, frankly I trust those coins more than Euros and Pounds. There is a noticeable absence in Surowiecki’s piece about the depreciating dollar. I’d like to end with a scene from forty years ago when I was stationed in the Army in Korea. In those days we were paid in MPCs (Military Pay Currency). We paid for our purchases at the PX in MPCs and you could exchange them for Korean Hwan with the ladies in back of the Korean National Bank, although greenbacks were worth about 10% more. There were a lot of MPCs floating around the city of Seoul, the product of various black markets (I like to think of it as a gray market, less sinister a form of exchange not exactly legal, but necessitated by currency and product manipulation by our respective governments). Then, one day, all the gates were closed and we had to turn in our MPCs for new MPCs. Koreans appeared from all over trying to trade MPCs to the GIs. The old money was soon worthless. MPCs were fiat paper money. We all thought greenbacks would live forever. Now I’m not so sure. Were the old MPCs money? I have a 1,000,000 drachmae (Greek) note from the 1940s. Is it money?


    (How many of you remember the shock of seeing the copper showing on the edges of our quarters? Didn’t you feel cheated?)


    Ransford Pyle
    Gainesville, Florida