Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

Bill,
You might want to include this gold ETF article from Investors Business Daily in a satirical manner in Midas. Some of the comments by the institutional mutual fund managers are so stupid that they are worth noting. One says, "no more than a couple of percent in gold." (Now really Bozo, exactly what will a couple of percent do to your portfolio?) Another says, "it doesn’t do much of anything for your portfolio except get you the rate of inflation over time." (Oh my, well that is a h_ll of a lot better than the market over the past 4 years. And, I believe gold is up 75% since 2001 which is much better than the LBS inflation statistics!!!)

It is amazing what length these idiots will go to in order to protect themselves from criticism for not being in the #1 investment class since 2001!

-END-

This says it all:

Bill,
In my nearly 2 years of following the gold market, today has to be the most blatant day of manipulation and capping I have ever seen. It is very frustrating that they can do this. This was a day when gold should have gone well over $450 and instead they hand us a $1.10 cent loss on the day. I am sure this is part of their tactic so that they can create bearish sentiment even at over $447. They will reap what they sow. Their day is coming.
Wendell

Will report in from San Diego tomorrow. Out of here.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

If the gold shares are a leading indicator for the price of bullion, gold is going to completely collapse, like to $375. The XAU sank 2.54 to 107.71, while the HUI couldn't wait to take out 240 on the downside again. It closed at 237, down 5.02. More than pitiful.

As has been the case for some time, John Brimelow reports of a very firm cash gold market. While John reports on the Indian premiums (which are an indicator of local demand for gold in India itself versus the supply available), I also view it as an indicator of world demand. The reason is the Indians are competing against the Russians, Chinese, Arabs, etc., for the world supply out there. In days of yore the demand would dry up as the price rose sharply. The Indians would sit back and wait for the specs to be liquidated. Then they would re-enter the market. This worked for them for many years.

Now, if I am right, The Gold Cartel’s supply is gradually drying up. They are able to handle a controlled retreat with what they have been doing, but are unable to orchestrate a LASTING bombing. It would eat into too much of their ammo. Since the Indians are competing with all kinds of new investment demand for gold, their local bullion dealers need to keep their bids high to satisfy the buying requirements of their consumers.

Therefore, in this scenario, price dips in the near future should be minimal, or if sharp, ought to be very brief. Once the market breaks the shackles of the crooks and soars, the price will outrun the physical market and then gold should go through a normal and healthy correction.

Meanwhile the gold shares could not act worse. There is little conviction out there and almost no understanding of what the gold market is really all about. This is why I consider the World Gold Council and a good deal of the rest of the gold establishment to be a disgrace. They have done nothing to present the evidence GATA has uncovered of blatant price suppression. Matter of fact they have done what they could to do their own bit of suppression. Without the price manipulation gold would be hundreds of dollars higher and your share prices would be through the roof. We would all be smiling, happy campers. Instead, you have ennui and increasing despair as the share price action worsens relative to where the price of bullion is.

14:27 GFI HMY announces GFI's motion for preliminary injunction has been denied (14.28 -0.47)
GFI's motion to block HMY's hostile bid was denied. The court also ruled that the evidence submitted failed to support GFI's claim that HMY misled shareholders relative to disclosure of its gold reserves. Note that GFI's bid to South Africa's Supreme Court to block HMY's hostile bid failed (see 11/11 comment).
* * * * *

The heat must be on Barrick Gold to come out with this:

High gold prices don't deter Barrick hedge cuts

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Today's higher gold prices won't stop Barrick Gold Corp. from reducing its hedge book, the world's third biggest gold miner said on Tuesday, adding that it remains "very committed" to bringing down the bulky forward sales position.

"A higher gold price does not preclude us from reducing the position. As prices are high we can blend lower-priced contracts (with sales at spot prices) and still experience earnings and cash flow growth," Jamie Sokalsky, Barrick's chief financial officer, said.

So much for their brilliant move years ago to build up their hedge book with gold below $300 per ounce. Hubris bites the dust.

-END-

Rhody on rates:
It would appear that monetary interests and option/futures issuing commercials used leased gold to attempt to hammer gold back below $440 today. They failed. That means options on up to 50,000 contracts for gold futures were in the money. I can't remember the last time that happened. One month gold lease rates rose by 50% to .12% from .08%. These rates are still very low, but it's the most action I have seen in leasing for a long time. With gold breaking out, leasing is a sign of desperation. Silver lease rates are now 1.5 to 3.5 times the rates for gold, and it is because gold rates rose relative to silver rates.

Silver's action shows a little upward action on lease rates that may be providing metal to inhibit silver breaching the top of its channel. For the last week or more, silver's price action has been very subdued as it rubbed along the underside of its up-channel. I should add that silver also did not correct today and that means more damage was done to the CABAL in the options market. Now if a mere 10% of futures are exercised, available supplies of COMEX silver will be wiped out.
Regards, Rhody.

Jim Puplava will be doing interviews with notables at the San Francisco gold show this Sunday. The interviews will air the following Saturday (December 4) on the Financial Sense Newshour (http://www.financialsense.com).

I was asked to comment on the Central Fund of Canada's dismal performance as compared to the price of the metal it is based upon. Its substantial premiums of months ago have collapsed as the gold price has risen. All I can say is this fits right in with the rest of the market sentiment, which is generally abysmal. It is proof how FEW out there understand what this gold market is about and how few have any faith this price advance can hold. If they only knew this is only the very BEGINNING of the move.

On Gold Cartel honcho and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers:

Hi Bill,
I was somewhat amused to read Larry Summers’ comments regarding his concerns about the current account deficit (see Marshall Auerback’s article at http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp ).

Within the past two weeks we have had Robert Rubin warning us about the danger of the US Budget Deficit, Alan Greenspan and now Larry Summers warning us about the current account deficit.

With regard to the budget deficit, the US is barely kept from recession by running by the 5+ % budget deficit while achieving stellar growth of about 3% (the budget deficit is really about 8% when you consider the Social Security "surplus" which is being spent every year). And the current account deficit is the result of policies which Greenspan and Summers have been encouraging for years.

What is really happening here is that we are being "warned" about these dangers by the architects of the stock market bubble who, by suppressing the price of gold while massively increasing the money supply, figured they had invented a perpetual motion machine.

Well they were wrong and, with the consequences of their loose money policy now coming home to roost, they have now pushed the US economy to the brink of precipitous decline.

By "warning" us they are really taking our eyes off the ball of what got us here in the first place all the while buffing their images as "concerned citizens".

Thanks Bob, Al and Larry for the warning – but no thanks.
Sincerely,
Dave.

Thanks to those in the GATA ARMY who have contacted the SEC about the gold ETF. The ball is now in their court:

Dear Mr. Harcos:

Thank you for your email to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC is currently accepting comments regarding the Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change and Notice of Filing and Order Granting Accelerated Approval to Amendments No. 1 and No. 2 Regarding Listing and
Trading of streetTRACKS® Gold Shares. Comments due: November 26, 2004 at
http://www.sec.gov/cgibin/ruli…-2004-22&action=Show_Form

Thank you for providing us the opportunity to review your concerns.

Sincerely,

APRIL B KEYES
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(202)942-7049

Chuck checked in last evening:

I was surprised not that gold didn't pop today, but that everything was so muted. Judging by the continued very bearish put-call ratio in stocks, I still believe that the next big move will be down. The only timing problem is that we are so late in the year for anything meaningful to occur. Only gold such as last year turns down in December.

My guess on the lack of any mention or enthusiasm is the same as my interpretation of the exploration companies; no one wants to get in here. They are either scared of a sharp drop or can't see what is going on in gold. I still think that a bounce in the dollar once it has its customary reaction of making gold people even more nervous than they always are, will be the elixir for the shares.

I still see a lot of put buying both in the XAU and in the futures' options. December 1 last year marked the beginning of the gold share correction, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it mark the beginning of the move upward.

It is like reading the Book of Revelation--a lot of pain but the ending is glorious. Given the very short week, I am not expecting anything dramatic but it might be the type of holiday where they try to pull something off. Patience. Chuck

This is some story. Wall Street doesn’t want to hear this one either:

On State Street: Economic 'Armageddon' predicted

By Brett Arends
Boston Herald
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

http://business.bostonherald.c…s/view.bg?articleid=55356

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
last week, including a group at Fidelity. His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic "armageddon."

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, "It struck me how extreme he was -- much more, it seemed to me, than in public."

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that "we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon."

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Less a case of "Armageddon," maybe, than of a "Perfect Storm.

Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.

To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.

That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

Sustainable? Hardly.

Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.

Today the figure is 85 percent.

Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.

You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.

Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra force. The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro. Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.

It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts agree.

The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates, on Friday.

Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard the presentation concluded that a "spectacular wave of bankruptcies" is possible.

Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable that America is living in a "debt bubble" of record proportions.

But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real terms. Inflation of 7 percent a year halves "real" values in a decade.

It may be the only way out of the trap.

Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.

You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent.

-END-

Not what the US wants to hear:

China tells US to put its house in order
By James Kynge in Beijing, Chris Giles in London and James Harding in Santiago
Published: November 22 2004 18:36 | Last updated: November 22 2004 18:36

In a mark of China's growing economic confidence, the country's central bank has offered blunt advice to Washington about its ballooning trade deficit and unemployment.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Li Ruogu, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, warned the US not to blame other countries for its economic difficulties.

"China's custom is that we never blame others for our own problem," said the senior central bank official. "For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The US has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others."

Mr Li insisted an appreciation of the Chinese currency would not solve the US's structural problems and that although China was "gradually" moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility, it would not do so under heavy external pressure.

"Under heavy speculation we cannot move [towards greater flexibility] and under heavy external pressure we cannot," said Mr Li. "So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."…..

-END-

From The King Report:

Barron’s Randall Forsyth cites Northern Trust chief economist, Paul Kasriel’s "Household Deficit". The ‘HD’ shows US consumers are consuming a record more than they earn. For Q3, Mr. Kasriel estimates the Household Deficit is $342B annualized. Paul blames Easy Al’s easy money for the consumption orgy. You can see the disturbing chart of the "Household Deficit" in the PDF version of our report.

The FT’s Philip Coggan citing, Merrill’s Trevor Greetham (director of global asset allocation), highlights the investment cycle. "The reflation phase occurs when output growth is sluggish, profits are weak and inflation and interest rates are falling. The recovery phase sees output growth accelerating, profits rising but inflation and interest rates staying low. In the overheating phase, output growth is above trend but bottlenecks are starting to appear. Inflation rises and central banks push up interest rates. Then there is the stagflation phase when output growth slows but inflation remains high, meaning central banks are reluctant to cut rates. Broadly speaking, bonds are perceived to be the best asset to hold during reflation, equities during recovery, commodities during overheating and cash during stagflation."

Dollar bearish news which hit the tape early:

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded within a half cent of a record against the dollar after Russian central banker Alexei Ulyukayev said Russia may lift the share of its foreign-exchange reserves held in euros.

``Most of our reserves are in dollars and that's a cause for concern,'' he told reporters in Moscow. ``Looking at the dynamics of the euro-dollar rate, we are discussing the possibility to change the reserve structure.''

More on the same:

Gold and currency reserves to be reviewed

RBC, 23.11.2004, Moscow 14:43:36.A large share of dollars in Russia's gold and currency reserves is a cause for reflection, Central Bank Senior Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukayev reported at today's press conference. According to him, the Central Bank orientates not towards the profitability of investments but at their reliability. However, on the other hand, the Central Bank cannot ignore the present tendencies. On the basis of forecasts on changes in currency rates, the Central Bank is planning to discuss the possibility of changing the shares of euros and dollars in Russia's gold and currency reserves, Ulyukayev said.

As reported earlier, Russia's gold and currency reserves have advanced $37bn this year and 40 percent of this sum accounts for the Stabilization Fund.

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The markets are becoming more and more detached from reality. Either that or The Working Group on Financial Markets has gone into overdrive to rig them all in tandem. The dollar finished the day at 82.99, down .24, with the euro gaining .47 to 130.82. The bond market, which ought to be reeling with the tanking of the dollar, only closed slightly lower. The DOW rallied from way off its lows to close HIGHER at 10,492, up 3 with the DOG recovering to close only 1 lower at 2084.

Who knows when, what and how? Something HUGE is about to engulf the world financial markets in the weeks to come.

Some US economic news:

11/22 18:00 Follow-up: Semi equipment book/bill
The 3-month average of bookings rose 3.1% to $1.392B; billings rose 0.2% to $1.443B.
* * * * *

17:58 Semi equipment book/bill is 0.96 in October vs First Call 0.92
September was revised to 0.94 from 0.96.
* * * * *

10:00 Oct. Existing Home Sales reported 6.75M vs. consensus 6.72M
* * * * *

10:00 Follow-up: Sept. Existing Home sales revised to 6.76M from 6.75M
* * * * *

John Brimelow Report (Early Version)

India stilll buying despite record high world gold
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.90, PM $6.85, with world gold at $446.70 and $447.85. Ample, and adequate for legal imports. These are the highest world gold prices since I have been collecting these figures.

Despite heavy foreign portfolio inflows again today, and the fact that the $US Index hit a nine year low before the close of business in India today, the rupee did not break $US1 = R45 . Clearly, the Indian authorities are unwilling to yield any more competitive ground to the Chinese. But the country remains a buyer of world gold anyway.

The ECB reported the sale of about 2.5 tonnes of gold by a captive Central Bank.

ACCESS volume overnight was a heavy 9000+ contracts (despite TOCOM being closed), and, of course, despite the wide dollar swoon, gold was pressured on the NY open today. But for the rest of the week the physical market will be unrestrained by COMEX: the Bears need to do better than this.

More later.

JB

November 23 – Gold $447.40 down $1.10 – Silver $7.54 down 1 cent

Gold Cartel Blocks Gold From Taking Out $450

Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it is said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it is said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it. Believe only what you yourself test and judge to be true...Buddha

Horns clipped. The action since the New York close yesterday was all over the place. Going to bed last evening gold was down $2 with the yen up sharply due to currency intervention fears. In early European trading the euro and pound soared. However, under a blatant and traditional price-capping drill by cabal forces, gold could only manage to eke its way above $449. This was only a prelude by the cartel reserve forces, who handed the baton over to their main army in New York, the one which has done the majority of the gold smashing over the years.

Today was no different. With the currencies surging, gold was taken right down like a wrestler being pummeled by an opponent. One reason could not be more obvious and flagrant: New York option expiry. It is bad enough all the options below $450 were in the money. The number at that level was enormous (including the OTC ones). They wouldn’t allow them to go off for two reasons other than just to pay investors honest gains at that strike level. Two of them:

*A move above psychologically important $450 would set off a flurry of talk of $500 gold and raise the excitement level re gold investing – a Gold Cartel no-no.

*As mentioned last evening, gold was just breaking out in terms of foreign currencies, something The Gold Cartel has prevented to-date. Today’s attack crushed the breakout. Gold in euros closed around 342.30 after plunging to 341.70 at one point.

Gold was taken down to $446.60 on the Comex when huge buying surfaced to stop the descent.

Facts are sometimes important to deal with, rather than hyperbole (I realize Wall Street shuns this form of rationalization). How has the new WGC ETF affected the gold market since its inception? Hard to know for sure. However, if you compare the gold price action vis-à-vis the currencies prior to its launch to the past four trading sessions on Comex, it has done nothing. Impact: zip. Gold is trading exactly the same as it has for months. Go to the video tape for proof. Should "GLD" have made a significant impact, gold should have far outpaced the way it was trading before the launch. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Wish it were otherwise. Gold would be $475 now.

This leads to one of two conclusions with the onus on the mainstream gold world to determine which one is so:

*GLD is somewhat of a fraud in the sense that it is having so little impact considering the huge volume numbers reported.

*There is massive Gold Cartel intervention which has countered this enormous new demand for gold as a result of this very visible and popular new trading entity.

Has to be one or the other! Which is it World Gold Council?

The gold open interest rose to another multi-decade high at 370,786, up 5,632 contracts. The DEC lost 42,906 contracts, as expected, and now stands at 170,472, still a huge number.

The silver open interest dropped 1542 contracts to 123,952 with the DEC losing 12,302 to 59,317.

The CRB made a new 23-year high today before settling at 288.74, up 1.27. Meanwhile, US Treasury bonds won’t go down. The only rational reason I can come up with is there is enormous hidden fear in the investment world of a US financial market debacle due to a collapsing dollar.

Zitat

Original von option63

vielleicht machen wir hier eine kurze, spontane umfrage? alle, die dafür oder dagegen sind, sollen es hier kurz!!! posten. in einer woche zählen wir aus.
was denkst du darüber?

Hallo option63,

scheint wohl die einzige Möglichkeit zu sein. Du darfst die Stimmen hier auszählen ;). Hast Du innerhalb der Woche eine nachweisbare Mehrheit für einen eigenen GATA Thread, stellen wir um. Ansonsten bleiben die GATA Texte Bestandteil dieses Threads, wie es schon immer war.

Der Ordnung halber: Ich stimme für Verbleib in diesem Thread.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von extrel
[
ich hatte vor einiger Zeit schon mal dazu aufgerufen, in einem Team Übersetzungen vorzunehmen, damit alle etwas von den Texten haben. Die Reaktion darauf war, "finde ich gut, habe aber selbst nur wenig Zeit" usw.

Ich habe den Eindruck, dass diese ganze Diskussion nichts bringt. Beide Seiten haben ihre guten Argumente. Lassen wir es einfach so, wie es ist. Wer die Berichte lesen will, soll es tun, wer sie nicht lesen will, braucht sich ja nur am Aviatar Schwabenpfeils zu orientieren und weiterscrollen - sorry ääh Entschuldigung, weiterblättern.

Lasst uns lieber über die Entwicklung am Goldmarkt diskutieren und verlagert die Diskussion über Sinn und Unsinn von englischsprachigen Postings in ein eigenes Forum.

Hallo extrel,

ich weiss Du meinst es gut. Aber ich denke, es müssen auch einmal Konflikte vernünftig ausdiskutiert werden können. Sollte dies auf goldseiten.de nicht mehr möglich sein, fällt für mich hier der Hammer.

Auch mir fällt allerdings auf, dass einige hier "Weltmeister im Fordern" und "nicht einmal Kreismeister" in der Realsierung sind.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von option63
extrel, meine freundin arbeitet dort, somit kenne ich die preise... da kostet das getränk bald mehr als die eigentliche leistung.

die 10 euro für eine flasche bier waren auf den 'normalen' verkaufspreis bei aldi und co bezogen.

ps, den vorschlag mit einem extra-thread für die eifrigen gata-poster etc. finde ich auch überlegenswert.

@ Gogh:

danke, dass Du Dich um meine Arbeitsbelastung sorgst. Aber offensichtlich funktioniert mein Gedächtnis noch einigermassen ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Hallo Ottis,

wie Du sicher weißt, gab es keine speziellen News. GSS ist sehr markteng und da können auch solche Schwankungen vorkommen.

Noch ein Tip: Wenn Du den obenstehenden Kurslink benützt, findest Du ganz rechts unten ein Kästchen "powered by Globeinvestor.com". Wenn Du dann dort die ganz linke Option "News" wählst, siehst Du alle Unternehmensmeldungen von GSS.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil