Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

November 24 - Gold $449 up $1.60 - Silver $7.60 up 6 cents

The Drama Builds!

The most common sort of lie is the one uttered to one's self...Friedrich Nietzsche

GO GATA!!!!

"The gold market is not rigged."

"The gold market is not capped."

"There is no Gold Cartel."

"There is no such thing as a wild conspiracy to manipulate the gold price."

Nietzsche must have had the brain dead in the gold world in mind when he uttered his well known line above. After the last two days of blatant gold price manipulation, how could there be anyone out there left who STILL doesn’t get it?

Incredibly, there is. The gold industry itself is beyond hope. What a bunch of lightweights! No other industry in the world would allow these in-your-face price-fixing shenanigans to continue without an uproar - and I mean a BIG UPROAR. Well, we know they are a gutless lot. So, GATA will run with their ball in spite of many of them, like we have for six years. Meanwhile, no way am I going to hold back my contempt for most. What a legacy to leave their kids. We will win this thing. To heck with this dopey industry. The Gold Cartel is doing down.

For the third time in a week I am referring to what John Brimelow brought to our attention last Wednesday re: former Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s memoirs. It is more appropriate than ever to bring it back to your attention on a day such as this:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

What else need be said? Greenspan (last Friday) and the finance ministers at the G-20 meeting last weekend told the world the dollar had to go down. To make sure the drop would not accelerate out of control, they must have agreed to make sure the gold price did not rise above $450 for the time being. Case closed. Joint intervention it is. For the brain dead in the gold world further explanation is in order: intervention means manipulation, suppression of free market forces, and price-capping. Intervention means various entities are conspiring to achieve their own objective.

This is what is so aggravating about the negligent World Gold Council. So what if they bring a gold ETF on board compared to exposing this blatant price-fixing scheme which is keeping gold hundreds of dollars per ounce below where it ought to be in a freely traded market? What, NET, has this GLD accomplished? Nothing. Zip. Zero. Gold is trading no differently than it has for months. The new (and perhaps substantial) buying brought in by this new trading entity is MEANINGLESS compared to the intervention thrown at the market by The Gold Cartel and allies. Exposing the gold sham for what it is would be worth 100 gold ETFs.

Woke up in San Diego this morning, early, and went right back to bed when I saw how gold was not allowed to get above $449/$450, even though the dollar was continuing its free-fall.

Meanwhile, the US bond market and stock market seem oblivious to the dollar collapsing. While gold is stuffed, they continue to go on their merry lofty price ways. American investors can go into denial if they want, like they did during the summer of 1987. However, what about foreigners who have invested in our financial markets? Their investments are being routed with the dollar tanking like this.

Short-term most pundits might find it hard to get a handle on what there is in store for the rest of this year, for good reason. Clearly The Gold Cartel is trying to set up gold for a trashing when the dollar corrects for some eventual reason. It is ironic that most everyone is dollar bearish and it keeps going down and down and down. Yet, at the same time, there are far more short-term gold bears than bulls at the moment. Two more well known pundits exited the long side of bullion yesterday. The dollar move down is not affecting the dollar bears, only the gold bulls. Then again, there is no Dollar Cartel.

Who would be bearish, or out of the long side of gold, if one only looked at a gold chart? If it were not gold, would so many be looking for an immediate correction? The Gold Cartel has been very effective in conditioning market participants on what to expect re future price action. Till now anyway. The gold chart reveals a gradual move up of new high after new high. The irony is how FEW in the investment world are bullish vis-à-vis what the chart tells us. The real surprise would be for gold to take off from here, not correct. ALMOST EVERYONE expects gold to retreat. Look at the continually horrendous gold share action to understand what most share investors believe is coming down the near-term pike. Yet, the share action has predicted a gold drop for many, many weeks – while gold goes up and up, even with the nauseating capping.

Those in the gold correction camp have a reasonable expectation when viewing how aggressive The Gold Cartel is with their gold price-capping activity in light of the dollar dive bomb. However, what would disturb me if I were in that camp is the amount of company there is of those who think the exact same way. What they may be overlooking:

*We have a four day gold holiday coming into play. Players around the world might be reluctant to put on new long positions with Comex closed for four days.

*Why buy here with The Gold Cartel so blatant in their price-fixing drills? The big money is probably on the sideline and waiting for gold to take out $450 before adding to established positions, or making new ones. A breach of $450, after all the cabal selling the past week, will reveal weakness on the cartel’s part. The sharks, smelling blood, will know that.

*The CRB made a 23-year high today, closing at 291.61, up 2.89. It won’t be too long before it takes out 300, a key psychological level which will create a good deal of hoopla and inflation commentary. The increased focus on increasing inflation in the US will add to gold fever excitement/demand.

*At some point the US stock and bond markets are going to give up their levitation routines. The Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) can only do so much. The problems facing the US, so well articulated by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, are not going away. They are worsening. When fears of US financial market distress mount, more and more smart money is going to turn to gold as “the go-to investment.” The dollar might firm up a bit as our interest rates shoot up with gold taking off at the same time.

The dollar closed at 82.46, down .53. The euro was last seen in flight at 131.66 and still rising. With what commodity prices and the dollar did today, it doesn’t get any more gold bullish as far as outside markets are concerned. You should be making a fortune as the gold price soars. Instead, you are being ripped off. If you have not already done so, join the GATA ARMY and do something about it. Scream bloody murder to your gold share CEOs.

Get this. Two days ago gold in euros was breaking out at 344. Today it was last seen at 340.94, which is horrendous and a real momentum stopper for those in foreign countries beginning to be excited about a bull move in gold. Why is gold in euros retreating with so many bullish factors going for it? The corrupt Gold Cartel; pure and simple.

This is our Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US. I am very thankful for my good health (knock on wood) and wonderful family. I am also grateful I have the opportunity to expose the bums whose secretive actions will eventually wreak havoc on the unsuspecting American public.

The gold open interest number revealed a staggering DROP of 18,148 contracts to 353,638. No reason to get into the DEC numbers when the US Government won’t let gold go past $450, unless the longs find a way to squeeze Uncle Sam. Here is the reason for the huge decrease. It was option related. Perhaps 15,000 of the drop could be linked to the 450 calls not going in the money. Delta hedgers sold futures positions as Tuesday wore on when it became very apparent that price level would not be breached and they would not have to deliver to long option holders.

The major gold price-capper today: You guessed it, Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs. Same ole, same ole.

Gold closed at another new 16-year high.

Silver continues to meander with little conviction either way. It is SO CHEAP. The shorts are going to be annihilated within the next few months.

The silver open interest dropped 2232 contracts to 121,720.

Just in. We are getting the attention of the SEC:

Bill is this buck passing or what?

From: SEC Help [mailto:help@sec.gov]
Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 2:54 PM
To: Schilling, Danny
Subject: SEC Response - File # HO1034317

Dear Mr. Schilling:

Thank you for contacting the SEC.

I have searched the SEC public database and did not find any notice that the SEC has information that there this security does not have any gold. However, you should conduct your own research on any security before you invest.

Leslie M. Garner
Attorney
Office of Investor Education and Assistance
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Mutual Funds & Personal Finance
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Gold ETF Gets Off To A Glittery Start
BY MURRAY COLEMAN
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

The first U.S. exchange-traded fund that invests in gold bullion debuted last week amid record first-day trade, but some money managers and market observers are urging caution.

StreetTRACKS Gold Shares on Thursday set a volume record for derivatives on its opening day on the New York Stock Exchange. Some six million shares were traded. The next day more than 11 million shares of the ETF, which is distributed by State Street Global Advisors and sponsored by the World Gold Council, changed hands.

Each share of Gold Shares represents 10% of an ounce of gold. On the first three days of trading, its shares closed at 44.38, 44.78 and 44.97.

The demand for an easier and more direct way to invest in bullion as a hedge against inflation or a weak dollar was evident in the heavy volume in the ETF's first days. But not everyone was biting. David Fry, founder of the ETF Digest, is advising his 1,000 subscribers to hold off. Why?

He's not convinced that investing in pure bullion, rather than stocks of gold mining firms, is the way to go.

Another drawback: Since the ETF invests in gold, gains realized on sales of shares will be taxed at the collectibles rate of 28% instead of the lower capital-gains level of 15%.

So Fry is continuing to tell investors interested in gold to stick to stocks. "With stocks, you can get a dividend, which is a nice little extra," said Fry. "I'd rather wait until an ETF comes out that's based on a broad-based gold stock index than pure bullion."

The ETF might have greater appeal to stock speculators who aren't familiar with futures, options or coin markets.

Difficult Entry

"It's been very hard for individuals to get into the market," said Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, which runs $410.6 million in precious-metals funds. "And pension funds have told us that it's just too hard to get special approval from their trustees to go out and make complicated moves to include gold in their portfolios."

The price of bullion usually fluctuates less than gold mining stocks. That can be a plus or minus, depending on what's happening in the market. If gold is falling a lot, bullion is going to provide a less bumpy road down than stocks. But if prices are rising, stocks are typically going to do better.

"People need to realize this ETF is going to swing to whatever's happening in the gold market at any given time," said Mark Johnson, manager of USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund.

That's why some fund managers say they're not concerned about the short-term popularity of the new ETF. "Gold's volatility gives managers like myself a definite advantage over passive ETFs," said USAA's Johnson.

While most of his holdings are in gold stocks, he can also invest in other metal sectors. Right now, about 20% of the $337.8 million fund's assets are invested in other metals and cash.

"With such a volatile asset class, a manager's ability to go to cash and other commodities is critical," said Johnson, who also advises fund investors not to own more than a few percentage points of gold in their portfolios.

Investors pinning their hopes on gold ETFs will find their returns diminish greatly over time, says Johnson. With the commodity-based ETF, you miss out on the effect that improving stock dividends and rising earnings estimates have on stock prices, he said.

A stock-based index or mutual fund also doesn't have to worry about storage and handling costs for the underlying commodity. State Street's new ETF, since it's buying bullion directly, will pass those costs along to investors. It intends to sell part of its inventory to defray those costs and other administrative fees. The ETF will charge shareholders 0.4% of assets to cover expenses.

"The more investors State Street Global attracts to their new ETF, the more bullion they're going to have to buy," said ETF Digest's Fry. "That means it's difficult right now to tell just how expensive owning an ETF like this is really going to wind up being for individuals."

More To Come

More are likely on the way. ETF giant Barclays Global Investors has filed to come out with a similar bullion-based ETF. The American Stock Exchange also has created a new index of gold stocks. It says negotiations are under way for a distributor to offer a gold ETF in the U.S. based on that bogey.

"The bottom line with gold is that it doesn't do much of anything for your portfolio except get you the rate of inflation over time," said Scott Salaske, vice president at Portfolio Solutions, which runs $400 million in assets for individuals.

Many investors want to jump into commodities in times of rising interest rates. Salaske says his firm prefers Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, as a hedge. Those are Treasury bonds that are indexed to the consumer price index.

"The price of gold can be heavily influenced by people piling into the market for something like this new ETF," said Salaske. "With TIPS, the only real question is how much the CPI's going to rise."

It's also easier to track Treasuries and the CPI than gold futures markets, he adds. "And with TIPS, you're at least guaranteed a real return," said Salaske, "even if inflation's zero."

-END-

Bill,
You might want to include this gold ETF article from Investors Business Daily in a satirical manner in Midas. Some of the comments by the institutional mutual fund managers are so stupid that they are worth noting. One says, "no more than a couple of percent in gold." (Now really Bozo, exactly what will a couple of percent do to your portfolio?) Another says, "it doesn’t do much of anything for your portfolio except get you the rate of inflation over time." (Oh my, well that is a h_ll of a lot better than the market over the past 4 years. And, I believe gold is up 75% since 2001 which is much better than the LBS inflation statistics!!!)

It is amazing what length these idiots will go to in order to protect themselves from criticism for not being in the #1 investment class since 2001!

-END-

This says it all:

Bill,
In my nearly 2 years of following the gold market, today has to be the most blatant day of manipulation and capping I have ever seen. It is very frustrating that they can do this. This was a day when gold should have gone well over $450 and instead they hand us a $1.10 cent loss on the day. I am sure this is part of their tactic so that they can create bearish sentiment even at over $447. They will reap what they sow. Their day is coming.
Wendell

Will report in from San Diego tomorrow. Out of here.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

If the gold shares are a leading indicator for the price of bullion, gold is going to completely collapse, like to $375. The XAU sank 2.54 to 107.71, while the HUI couldn't wait to take out 240 on the downside again. It closed at 237, down 5.02. More than pitiful.

As has been the case for some time, John Brimelow reports of a very firm cash gold market. While John reports on the Indian premiums (which are an indicator of local demand for gold in India itself versus the supply available), I also view it as an indicator of world demand. The reason is the Indians are competing against the Russians, Chinese, Arabs, etc., for the world supply out there. In days of yore the demand would dry up as the price rose sharply. The Indians would sit back and wait for the specs to be liquidated. Then they would re-enter the market. This worked for them for many years.

Now, if I am right, The Gold Cartel’s supply is gradually drying up. They are able to handle a controlled retreat with what they have been doing, but are unable to orchestrate a LASTING bombing. It would eat into too much of their ammo. Since the Indians are competing with all kinds of new investment demand for gold, their local bullion dealers need to keep their bids high to satisfy the buying requirements of their consumers.

Therefore, in this scenario, price dips in the near future should be minimal, or if sharp, ought to be very brief. Once the market breaks the shackles of the crooks and soars, the price will outrun the physical market and then gold should go through a normal and healthy correction.

Meanwhile the gold shares could not act worse. There is little conviction out there and almost no understanding of what the gold market is really all about. This is why I consider the World Gold Council and a good deal of the rest of the gold establishment to be a disgrace. They have done nothing to present the evidence GATA has uncovered of blatant price suppression. Matter of fact they have done what they could to do their own bit of suppression. Without the price manipulation gold would be hundreds of dollars higher and your share prices would be through the roof. We would all be smiling, happy campers. Instead, you have ennui and increasing despair as the share price action worsens relative to where the price of bullion is.

14:27 GFI HMY announces GFI's motion for preliminary injunction has been denied (14.28 -0.47)
GFI's motion to block HMY's hostile bid was denied. The court also ruled that the evidence submitted failed to support GFI's claim that HMY misled shareholders relative to disclosure of its gold reserves. Note that GFI's bid to South Africa's Supreme Court to block HMY's hostile bid failed (see 11/11 comment).
* * * * *

The heat must be on Barrick Gold to come out with this:

High gold prices don't deter Barrick hedge cuts

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Today's higher gold prices won't stop Barrick Gold Corp. from reducing its hedge book, the world's third biggest gold miner said on Tuesday, adding that it remains "very committed" to bringing down the bulky forward sales position.

"A higher gold price does not preclude us from reducing the position. As prices are high we can blend lower-priced contracts (with sales at spot prices) and still experience earnings and cash flow growth," Jamie Sokalsky, Barrick's chief financial officer, said.

So much for their brilliant move years ago to build up their hedge book with gold below $300 per ounce. Hubris bites the dust.

-END-

Rhody on rates:
It would appear that monetary interests and option/futures issuing commercials used leased gold to attempt to hammer gold back below $440 today. They failed. That means options on up to 50,000 contracts for gold futures were in the money. I can't remember the last time that happened. One month gold lease rates rose by 50% to .12% from .08%. These rates are still very low, but it's the most action I have seen in leasing for a long time. With gold breaking out, leasing is a sign of desperation. Silver lease rates are now 1.5 to 3.5 times the rates for gold, and it is because gold rates rose relative to silver rates.

Silver's action shows a little upward action on lease rates that may be providing metal to inhibit silver breaching the top of its channel. For the last week or more, silver's price action has been very subdued as it rubbed along the underside of its up-channel. I should add that silver also did not correct today and that means more damage was done to the CABAL in the options market. Now if a mere 10% of futures are exercised, available supplies of COMEX silver will be wiped out.
Regards, Rhody.

Jim Puplava will be doing interviews with notables at the San Francisco gold show this Sunday. The interviews will air the following Saturday (December 4) on the Financial Sense Newshour (http://www.financialsense.com).

I was asked to comment on the Central Fund of Canada's dismal performance as compared to the price of the metal it is based upon. Its substantial premiums of months ago have collapsed as the gold price has risen. All I can say is this fits right in with the rest of the market sentiment, which is generally abysmal. It is proof how FEW out there understand what this gold market is about and how few have any faith this price advance can hold. If they only knew this is only the very BEGINNING of the move.

On Gold Cartel honcho and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers:

Hi Bill,
I was somewhat amused to read Larry Summers’ comments regarding his concerns about the current account deficit (see Marshall Auerback’s article at http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp ).

Within the past two weeks we have had Robert Rubin warning us about the danger of the US Budget Deficit, Alan Greenspan and now Larry Summers warning us about the current account deficit.

With regard to the budget deficit, the US is barely kept from recession by running by the 5+ % budget deficit while achieving stellar growth of about 3% (the budget deficit is really about 8% when you consider the Social Security "surplus" which is being spent every year). And the current account deficit is the result of policies which Greenspan and Summers have been encouraging for years.

What is really happening here is that we are being "warned" about these dangers by the architects of the stock market bubble who, by suppressing the price of gold while massively increasing the money supply, figured they had invented a perpetual motion machine.

Well they were wrong and, with the consequences of their loose money policy now coming home to roost, they have now pushed the US economy to the brink of precipitous decline.

By "warning" us they are really taking our eyes off the ball of what got us here in the first place all the while buffing their images as "concerned citizens".

Thanks Bob, Al and Larry for the warning – but no thanks.
Sincerely,
Dave.

Thanks to those in the GATA ARMY who have contacted the SEC about the gold ETF. The ball is now in their court:

Dear Mr. Harcos:

Thank you for your email to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC is currently accepting comments regarding the Order Granting Approval of Proposed Rule Change and Notice of Filing and Order Granting Accelerated Approval to Amendments No. 1 and No. 2 Regarding Listing and
Trading of streetTRACKS® Gold Shares. Comments due: November 26, 2004 at
http://www.sec.gov/cgibin/ruli…-2004-22&action=Show_Form

Thank you for providing us the opportunity to review your concerns.

Sincerely,

APRIL B KEYES
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(202)942-7049

Chuck checked in last evening:

I was surprised not that gold didn't pop today, but that everything was so muted. Judging by the continued very bearish put-call ratio in stocks, I still believe that the next big move will be down. The only timing problem is that we are so late in the year for anything meaningful to occur. Only gold such as last year turns down in December.

My guess on the lack of any mention or enthusiasm is the same as my interpretation of the exploration companies; no one wants to get in here. They are either scared of a sharp drop or can't see what is going on in gold. I still think that a bounce in the dollar once it has its customary reaction of making gold people even more nervous than they always are, will be the elixir for the shares.

I still see a lot of put buying both in the XAU and in the futures' options. December 1 last year marked the beginning of the gold share correction, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it mark the beginning of the move upward.

It is like reading the Book of Revelation--a lot of pain but the ending is glorious. Given the very short week, I am not expecting anything dramatic but it might be the type of holiday where they try to pull something off. Patience. Chuck

This is some story. Wall Street doesn’t want to hear this one either:

On State Street: Economic 'Armageddon' predicted

By Brett Arends
Boston Herald
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

http://business.bostonherald.c…s/view.bg?articleid=55356

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
last week, including a group at Fidelity. His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic "armageddon."

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, "It struck me how extreme he was -- much more, it seemed to me, than in public."

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that "we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon."

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Less a case of "Armageddon," maybe, than of a "Perfect Storm.

Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.

To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.

That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

Sustainable? Hardly.

Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.

Today the figure is 85 percent.

Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.

You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.

Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra force. The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro. Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.

It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts agree.

The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates, on Friday.

Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard the presentation concluded that a "spectacular wave of bankruptcies" is possible.

Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable that America is living in a "debt bubble" of record proportions.

But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real terms. Inflation of 7 percent a year halves "real" values in a decade.

It may be the only way out of the trap.

Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.

You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent.

-END-

Not what the US wants to hear:

China tells US to put its house in order
By James Kynge in Beijing, Chris Giles in London and James Harding in Santiago
Published: November 22 2004 18:36 | Last updated: November 22 2004 18:36

In a mark of China's growing economic confidence, the country's central bank has offered blunt advice to Washington about its ballooning trade deficit and unemployment.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Li Ruogu, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, warned the US not to blame other countries for its economic difficulties.

"China's custom is that we never blame others for our own problem," said the senior central bank official. "For the past 26 years, we never put pressure or problems on to the world. The US has the reverse attitude, whenever they have a problem, they blame others."

Mr Li insisted an appreciation of the Chinese currency would not solve the US's structural problems and that although China was "gradually" moving towards greater exchange rate flexibility, it would not do so under heavy external pressure.

"Under heavy speculation we cannot move [towards greater flexibility] and under heavy external pressure we cannot," said Mr Li. "So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."…..

-END-

From The King Report:

Barron’s Randall Forsyth cites Northern Trust chief economist, Paul Kasriel’s "Household Deficit". The ‘HD’ shows US consumers are consuming a record more than they earn. For Q3, Mr. Kasriel estimates the Household Deficit is $342B annualized. Paul blames Easy Al’s easy money for the consumption orgy. You can see the disturbing chart of the "Household Deficit" in the PDF version of our report.

The FT’s Philip Coggan citing, Merrill’s Trevor Greetham (director of global asset allocation), highlights the investment cycle. "The reflation phase occurs when output growth is sluggish, profits are weak and inflation and interest rates are falling. The recovery phase sees output growth accelerating, profits rising but inflation and interest rates staying low. In the overheating phase, output growth is above trend but bottlenecks are starting to appear. Inflation rises and central banks push up interest rates. Then there is the stagflation phase when output growth slows but inflation remains high, meaning central banks are reluctant to cut rates. Broadly speaking, bonds are perceived to be the best asset to hold during reflation, equities during recovery, commodities during overheating and cash during stagflation."

Dollar bearish news which hit the tape early:

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The euro traded within a half cent of a record against the dollar after Russian central banker Alexei Ulyukayev said Russia may lift the share of its foreign-exchange reserves held in euros.

``Most of our reserves are in dollars and that's a cause for concern,'' he told reporters in Moscow. ``Looking at the dynamics of the euro-dollar rate, we are discussing the possibility to change the reserve structure.''

More on the same:

Gold and currency reserves to be reviewed

RBC, 23.11.2004, Moscow 14:43:36.A large share of dollars in Russia's gold and currency reserves is a cause for reflection, Central Bank Senior Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukayev reported at today's press conference. According to him, the Central Bank orientates not towards the profitability of investments but at their reliability. However, on the other hand, the Central Bank cannot ignore the present tendencies. On the basis of forecasts on changes in currency rates, the Central Bank is planning to discuss the possibility of changing the shares of euros and dollars in Russia's gold and currency reserves, Ulyukayev said.

As reported earlier, Russia's gold and currency reserves have advanced $37bn this year and 40 percent of this sum accounts for the Stabilization Fund.

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The markets are becoming more and more detached from reality. Either that or The Working Group on Financial Markets has gone into overdrive to rig them all in tandem. The dollar finished the day at 82.99, down .24, with the euro gaining .47 to 130.82. The bond market, which ought to be reeling with the tanking of the dollar, only closed slightly lower. The DOW rallied from way off its lows to close HIGHER at 10,492, up 3 with the DOG recovering to close only 1 lower at 2084.

Who knows when, what and how? Something HUGE is about to engulf the world financial markets in the weeks to come.

Some US economic news:

11/22 18:00 Follow-up: Semi equipment book/bill
The 3-month average of bookings rose 3.1% to $1.392B; billings rose 0.2% to $1.443B.
* * * * *

17:58 Semi equipment book/bill is 0.96 in October vs First Call 0.92
September was revised to 0.94 from 0.96.
* * * * *

10:00 Oct. Existing Home Sales reported 6.75M vs. consensus 6.72M
* * * * *

10:00 Follow-up: Sept. Existing Home sales revised to 6.76M from 6.75M
* * * * *

John Brimelow Report (Early Version)

India stilll buying despite record high world gold
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.90, PM $6.85, with world gold at $446.70 and $447.85. Ample, and adequate for legal imports. These are the highest world gold prices since I have been collecting these figures.

Despite heavy foreign portfolio inflows again today, and the fact that the $US Index hit a nine year low before the close of business in India today, the rupee did not break $US1 = R45 . Clearly, the Indian authorities are unwilling to yield any more competitive ground to the Chinese. But the country remains a buyer of world gold anyway.

The ECB reported the sale of about 2.5 tonnes of gold by a captive Central Bank.

ACCESS volume overnight was a heavy 9000+ contracts (despite TOCOM being closed), and, of course, despite the wide dollar swoon, gold was pressured on the NY open today. But for the rest of the week the physical market will be unrestrained by COMEX: the Bears need to do better than this.

More later.

JB

November 23 – Gold $447.40 down $1.10 – Silver $7.54 down 1 cent

Gold Cartel Blocks Gold From Taking Out $450

Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it is said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it is said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it. Believe only what you yourself test and judge to be true...Buddha

Horns clipped. The action since the New York close yesterday was all over the place. Going to bed last evening gold was down $2 with the yen up sharply due to currency intervention fears. In early European trading the euro and pound soared. However, under a blatant and traditional price-capping drill by cabal forces, gold could only manage to eke its way above $449. This was only a prelude by the cartel reserve forces, who handed the baton over to their main army in New York, the one which has done the majority of the gold smashing over the years.

Today was no different. With the currencies surging, gold was taken right down like a wrestler being pummeled by an opponent. One reason could not be more obvious and flagrant: New York option expiry. It is bad enough all the options below $450 were in the money. The number at that level was enormous (including the OTC ones). They wouldn’t allow them to go off for two reasons other than just to pay investors honest gains at that strike level. Two of them:

*A move above psychologically important $450 would set off a flurry of talk of $500 gold and raise the excitement level re gold investing – a Gold Cartel no-no.

*As mentioned last evening, gold was just breaking out in terms of foreign currencies, something The Gold Cartel has prevented to-date. Today’s attack crushed the breakout. Gold in euros closed around 342.30 after plunging to 341.70 at one point.

Gold was taken down to $446.60 on the Comex when huge buying surfaced to stop the descent.

Facts are sometimes important to deal with, rather than hyperbole (I realize Wall Street shuns this form of rationalization). How has the new WGC ETF affected the gold market since its inception? Hard to know for sure. However, if you compare the gold price action vis-à-vis the currencies prior to its launch to the past four trading sessions on Comex, it has done nothing. Impact: zip. Gold is trading exactly the same as it has for months. Go to the video tape for proof. Should "GLD" have made a significant impact, gold should have far outpaced the way it was trading before the launch. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Wish it were otherwise. Gold would be $475 now.

This leads to one of two conclusions with the onus on the mainstream gold world to determine which one is so:

*GLD is somewhat of a fraud in the sense that it is having so little impact considering the huge volume numbers reported.

*There is massive Gold Cartel intervention which has countered this enormous new demand for gold as a result of this very visible and popular new trading entity.

Has to be one or the other! Which is it World Gold Council?

The gold open interest rose to another multi-decade high at 370,786, up 5,632 contracts. The DEC lost 42,906 contracts, as expected, and now stands at 170,472, still a huge number.

The silver open interest dropped 1542 contracts to 123,952 with the DEC losing 12,302 to 59,317.

The CRB made a new 23-year high today before settling at 288.74, up 1.27. Meanwhile, US Treasury bonds won’t go down. The only rational reason I can come up with is there is enormous hidden fear in the investment world of a US financial market debacle due to a collapsing dollar.

Zitat

Original von option63

vielleicht machen wir hier eine kurze, spontane umfrage? alle, die dafür oder dagegen sind, sollen es hier kurz!!! posten. in einer woche zählen wir aus.
was denkst du darüber?

Hallo option63,

scheint wohl die einzige Möglichkeit zu sein. Du darfst die Stimmen hier auszählen ;). Hast Du innerhalb der Woche eine nachweisbare Mehrheit für einen eigenen GATA Thread, stellen wir um. Ansonsten bleiben die GATA Texte Bestandteil dieses Threads, wie es schon immer war.

Der Ordnung halber: Ich stimme für Verbleib in diesem Thread.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil