Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

There is a tale of two planets the way I see it. The Wall Street planet believes interest rates should stay down, the stock market should soar, and real estate prices should continue to rise in meteoric fashion. They believe the US economy is rocking along and corporate profits in the coming quarters should take the market much higher. They don’t believe the budget and trade deficits matter much.

Many who live on our GATA planet see the factors which kept the market up as behind us – namely low interest rates, government economic stimulus, and various tax cuts. We see the horrendous deficits as a serious problem. We know the gold price was rigged for nearly a decade. This price suppression scheme hid many structural deficiencies in the US financial system.

Our planet views the dollar drop as US inflationary. Their planet is in denial, or has been. Today the light bulb might have gone off for a few. The US has big problems and they have to be dealt with.

Some on the Wall Street planet decided to move to ours, the GATA planet. The DOW fell 116 to 10,457, while the DOG was belted 34 down to 2070. This Greenspan comment had a number of the WS planet people taking flights to our domain:

``Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that any one who has not appropriately hedged his position by now, obviously, is desirous of losing money,'' Greenspan said at a central bankers' conference in Frankfurt.

The bonds dropped a point to 112 20/32.

Still, considering the magnitude of Greenspan’s comments, the reaction was subdued considering the recent stock and bond market rallies. Watch for the trickle to turn into a flood in the days, weeks and months to come. We are going to have to jack up our own real estate prices on our planet very soon. Time to think about an immigration policy.

Mahendra is unreal. He called the oil move down and then in his commentary last weekend he said: "This week will be very interesting for oil because I see a sudden rise in oil prices from Thursday." Crude oil rose $2.22 per barrel today to $48.44. His clients are cleaning up. Congrats to our friendly seer.

John Brimelow Report

Advantage physical

Friday, November 19, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.17, PM $7.83, with world gold at $442.65 and $443.80. Very ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay, but the other importing cities Reuters monitors present the same picture. The world’s largest buyer of bullion is a firm bidder for imports at these prices. This occurred despite slight weakness in the rupee, faltering under the Reserve Bank’s clear determination to block further appreciation.

On previous surges in world gold in recent years, Indian prices have slipped decisively below import point some weeks and $20-$30 below the short term peak. This time, as far as India is concerned, the rally has quite a bit further to go.

TOCOM gold was comatose, completely overshadowed by turbulence in the platinum contract (which traded almost three times as much $US volume). On the equivalent of 11,736 Comex contracts, open interest was static (down 64 Comex lots) the active contract closed down 3 yen, and world gold stood 5c above the NY close at the end of trading. (NY yesterday traded 110,839 contracts, of which 24,730 could be attributed to switches. Open interest slipped 2,271 lots.)

However there was interesting news from Japan: a Reuters story confirming that there has been an upswing in demand for physical gold from the public:

"TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Japanese investors are flocking to gold coins and bars amid an increased willingness to diversify into hard assets after a series of typhoons lashed the country and a major earthquake struck last month… The retail arm of Japan's largest bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Group, said its sales of gold to investors rose sharply in October and the trend was carrying over into this month… Tanaka did not disclose specific volumes of gold, but said sales of gold coins and bars rose 30 percent in October from a year earlier and jumped 60 percent against the previous month…"

Of course, there have been some signs of this from the import data for some months. Previous bullion buying binges in Japan have started out being advertised as having such causes, and then turn out to have financial structure anxiety roots as well. Government guarantees of bank deposits is set to lapse on March 31 next year.

Increasingly it appears that the propensity to hold bullion in the different parts of the world has shifted. Very bad news for Bears.

If the Bank of France sale, announced with a fine sense of timing this morning, is within the Washington Accord, it is not news.

The advent of the ETF has of course made assessment of NY trading murky. Consequently the insights furnished by the overseas physical markets become more important. Right now, the signs are all Bullish.

JB

Back to the day’s action. The outside market gold factors don’t get much more bullish:

*The Greenspan bearish dollar comments were dramatic with the dollar falling .40 to 83.32 and the euro rising .40 to 130.15. The yen rose to 103.04.
*Yesterday, because of the new ETF, gold drew more attention in one day on CNBC than it did for all the previous 356 days combined.
*Oil rose SHARPLY.
*The CRB made a 23-year high close at 288.98, up .98.

Still, The Gold Cartel capped the price all day long. Gold made it to Mahendra’s long predicted price point of $448, to the penny almost, and then the crooks whacked it lower a bit late. Just once for gold to pop $3 in the last ½ hour of trading like a free market would after such an incredible run and making continuous 16-year highs. When that occurs, we will know the bums are on their way out.

The DEC gold chart, not bad all – like the Energizer Bunny:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

The gold open interest fell 2271 contracts to 360,976 with the DEC dropping 16,282 to 226,917. The floor said there wasn’t much switching today for being this late in the lead contract month. Maybe as much as yesterday. That should leave more than 200,000 contracts open with only 5 trading days left until first notice day. The Comex is closed next Thursday and Friday. We could really get some fireworks the next two weeks.

Silver continues to act like it has a lead weight around its neck. No zip at all. The silver open interest fell 665 contracts to 125,865 with the DEC dropping 4323 to 78,055. The silver stocks have risen the past couple of days to 102,870,931.

Never seen anything like the sentiment in gold for such a bull market. The more gold rallies, the less people care. There isn’t the least bit of froth as far as the gold market is concerned. SO BULLISH! Been talking this way for months and the price keeps rising. The latest:

*Money is not coming in to the major gold funds.
*Small specs have little interest on the long side of futures (UNBELIEVABLE, for the third week in a row the small specs got MORE SHORT! Their long position went up by 2,265 contracts. However their shorts increased by 3,454)
*The Café Sentiment Indicator is a mediocre 5. That is about the highest it has been the entire move up, which is terrible. Last year it was a 9.
*US gold coin interest is only STARTING to accelerate.
*Gold shareholders can’t wait to sell.
*Interest in the smaller golds is pathetic. Not much better this week in most of the seniors.

Seems it is mostly the biggest, smartest money in the world that is taking the plunge into gold. Wait until the public wakes up. Yukon Gold Rush here we come.

Sudden drop in the dollar, sudden rise in gold. What’s the difference?

Seems Clement and Greenspan could be at loggerheads here.

As far as gold is concerned, it is a currency. Who out there in the investment world could possibly think gold is not discussed at length behind closed doors by the very same people? They are petrified gold could spiral upward in an out of control nature. They know the alarm bells this would sound in the financial market community and among the dumb-downed financial market press. To grasp current central banker mentality you only need to review what John Brimelow brought to our attention on Wednesday re: former Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s memoirs:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

It is a mistake Greenspan and the rest of The Gold Cartel are going to prevent from happening again at almost at all costs. Have prevented would be the more appropriate way to describe it as the management of the gold price rise has been going on for years. This is the reason for the $6 Rule, etc.

What is so loathsome is how the central banks and Gold Cartel lie about what they have been up to regarding bullion. Worse is the silence of the mentally challenged in the gold industry who give them a pass on their nefarious activities.

That is the bummer side of today’s MIDAS. Now for the good stuff. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The chickens are coming home to roost. The Gold Cartel has cooked its own goose by deceiving the public for so long – most likely a decade now. The bad guys are running out of available physical gold to continue their scam. They are running out of ammo and options to keep the gold price from exploding at some point down the road – like in the months to come.

By continually keeping gold from doing what it wants to do, The Gold Cartel has allowed demand to soar while they are dumping CHEAP GOLD to manipulate the price. The Indians, Chinese, Russians, Arabs, etc., are all over it. They are not blind. They have seen the handwriting on the wall for some time as far as the dollar is concerned. They keep loading their boats as do the big smart money hedge funds.

As a result of the price suppression scheme, the cash market remains firm as the price rises. Thus when the bad guys try to knock out the specs in one of their patented attacks, it is met with a new wall of buying. This has been going on for months, as you well know because MIDAS keeps bringing it to your attention, over and over again. The cabal’s old ways of doing business are just not working anymore.

Germany's Eichel Calls For Common Plan On Dollar

By Emily Church
CBSMarketWatch.com
Friday, November 19, 2004

LONDON -- German Finance Minister Hans Eichel is calling for Europe, Japan, and the United States to work together on currencies.

In an interview on German radio ahead of this weekend's gathering finance ministers and central bank chief from the top 20 economies, Eichel said "within the trioka -- i.e. Japan, America, and Europe -- we'll have to sit down together and try to reach a common solution," AFX News reported, citing the interview with DeutschlandRadio Berlin.

Earlier, in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Eichel urged further moves toward greater exchange rate flexibility among the West's key Asian trading partners.

Also on Friday, German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement called on policy makers to take action against any sudden drop in the U.S. dollar. The dollar's fall "deserves our whole attention, especially from those responsible for monetary policy," Clement told Bloomberg News in an interview in Bangkok. He didn't specify what action the policy makers should take, the report said.

-END-

Thoughts and recap on Greenspan:

*Whatever happened to Charlie McCarthy Snow and his strong dollar garbage talk?
*Greenspan is saying what all of us here at The Café knew many, many months ago. What could be more obvious?
*Wall Street is horrified that someone would actually tell it like it is.
*Now that the election is over, Greenspan is willing to tell the truth. What a guy!
*Greenspan is covering his butt. He knows what is coming.
*When you HAVE to let the "S" hit the fan, you might as well do so right after the election and get it over with.

What to make of this? First, those out there in the gold world who still don’t "get it" that the official sector and The Gold Cartel are all over the gold price, they truly must be a bunch of morons. The French announcement at this point in time tells us how orchestrated the gold market really is and how concerned the banking elite in the world are that the price will explode - or in other words, dramatically reflect the deficiencies showing up all over the place in the fiat currency system.

I keep waiting for gold to do just that, explode. Yet, it would appear this is becoming less and less likely until there is some financial crisis out there and The Gold Cartel is overpowered. Now, this could come at any time, like next week. However, the gold action over the last few weeks reveals how determined the manipulators are to keep the gold price action under control, even as they sound their bugle for retreat.

For the mental midgets out there who STILL don’t "get it," one only needs to review the latest commentary on the dollar:

On the Greenspan comments:

Greenspan cements market view US wants weaker dlr

By Jamie McGeever
NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - If financial markets felt any lingering doubt that U.S. policymakers want the dollar to depreciate, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan blew it out of the water on Friday, analysts say.

The Fed chief told a conference in Frankfurt the U.S. current account deficit cannot widen at its current pace indefinitely and that, given the size of the trade deficit, foreign demand for U.S. securities will wane at some point.

"It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point," Greenspan said.

"This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or ... seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing of the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable," the U.S. central bank head warned in a speech.

Increasing domestic savings and cutting the budget deficit are key to correcting the massive U.S. external deficits, he said. But it was his remarks on the current account gap and foreign demand for U.S. assets that currency dealers seized on.

Although Greenspan has highlighted these concerns before, and he did not specifically mention the dollar or exchange rates in his Frankfurt speech, analysts say the implication is clear: a weaker dollar is needed to help correct the deficits and U.S. policymakers won't stand in its way.

"Greenspan has said most of these things before, when he has had his back against the wall in Q & A (question and answer) sessions, but these are prepared remarks," said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist with ABN AMRO bank in Chicago.

"It makes it clear that U.S. policymakers do not want to stand in the way of market adjustment that leads to a lower dollar. This really lays it out. It makes it clear that all of the policymakers in the U.S. are on the same page about it," Anderson added.
Jason Bonanca, director of foreign exchange research at Credit Suisse Firs Boston in New York, agreed. "It's a helluva speech. It's remarkable. In the short term, I think what he's calling for here is a weaker dollar, even though he's tightening (monetary policy). I think this is a watershed."

Currency markets immediately sold the dollar, pushing it to fresh 4-1/2-year lows against the yen and near-9-year lows against the Swiss franc.

Stocks also fell sharply, reflecting the reaction across asset markets to Greenspan's concerns about foreign funding of U.S. deficits.

-END-

Associated Press
Bank of France to Sell Gold From Reserves
11.19.2004, 07:15 AM

French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer have finalized discussions on the sale of a portion of France's gold reserves.

Noyer confirmed his intention to sell 500 to 600 tons of the 3,000 tons of gold kept in vaults underneath the Bank of France headquarters in Paris over the next five years, the Finance Ministry said in a statement Friday.

The sale will be accompanied by an increase in cash reserves. Noyer will determine the rate at which the gold is sold, paying particular attention to the precious metal's market price.

At the end of five years, profit generated will yield more than euro200 million (US$262 million) per year in interest. This sum will go to the state to help pay off France's euro1 trillion (US$1.3 trillion) debt and to finance long-term employment, notably in the area of research, the ministry statement said.

-END-

November 19 – Gold $446.40 up $4.30 – Silver $7.57 up 4 cents

Gold Keeps On Rising/A Tale Of Two Planets

The secret of joy in work is contained in one word - excellence. To know how to do something well is to enjoy it...Pearl S. Buck

GO GATA!!!

The morning commenced with all sorts of commotion. The dollar was tanking to begin with when Alan Greenspan spoke bearishly on the greenback on a panel in London (see below). Color the dollar south for the rest of the day and for a long time to come (barring normal short-term corrections here and there). This blunt commentary from the Fed chairman is very unusual and has big picture connotations. His comments today will not be transitory. They will be of a longer lasting nature.

Then the French announced they will sell 500/600 tonnes of gold over the next five years. Since they specifically mentioned five years, it should mean their sales will be in accordance with the new Washington Agreement.

Bin dabei und habe keinerlei Einwände dagegen, dass HORSTWALTER als Koordinator auch mitspielen darf ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Spancer
Er hat recht, copy &paste und möglichst noch in Englisch, das ist das maximum was hier die meißten User zu stande bringen.

Hallo Spancer,

welche Beiträge kamen denn von Dir ???

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Dear Members,

This week my editor is on a holiday, so you will find this newsletter in broken English but I am sure that I will be able to convey a message to all my members. If you don't understand something, please don't hesitate to send me an email.

Finally gold closed at a 16 year high on Friday, the currencies have gained strongly against the USD as I had predicted in 2001, that valuation of the US Dollar would have a big question mark. Coffee and Grain found a strong ground and oil remained in a uncertain direction but the stock market is going in the opposite way of what I saw. Here is my prediction for this week in a simple language.

Prediction from 15 November to 19 November

GOLD

During the last week gold performed according to the wave of nature. During this week I am expecting some volatility in gold prices on Wednesday or Thursday because of some sudden unfavourable news for gold will come out, but gold will absorb all the negative hits and will stand firm. I am expecting that this week gold can go down to a maximum of $433 level and will form a strong bottom there, so it is very clear that gold won't trade below $433.

This week as well as next week will be a turning point for gold, as it will start rising against all other major currencies of the world. I was waiting for this to happen since a long time and I am excited that soon it will happen. Euro, Pound, Yen and Franc will start losing their value against gold very fast so be careful not to sell gold if US Dollar is getting stronger against the other currencies.

Whenever I spoke with the media in the past, I always said that "Gold would rule this century" and even today I am saying the same thing but adding a little more here "This month is for gold".

There will be an Interesting fight between the price range of $433 to $444. I am expecting gold to break $444 on Tuesday and will move up quite fast so hold your position till Tuesday. If gold is showing some sign of weakness on Wednesday than you should sell at least fifty percent of your position FOR SHORT TERM but buy it back on Friday.

Metal stocks will give a strong performance.

WARNING - Don't short gold and silver thinking that they are sitting on high prices.

I will send a alert news on Wednesday.

SILVER

My favourite of 2004 is still waiting to show its power and real value, in fact I see a big competition coming between gold and silver prices, I also see silver will win this battle. During this week silver prices will move between $7.48 to 7.98.

Strong warning - Don't short silver. Buy long term silver options and silver stocks. CDE is my favourite stock.

PALLADIUM/PLATINUM/COPPER

During this week Palladium and Platinum will move up in direction, copper will come down for 48 hours during the middle of the week but it will rise again on Friday.

Buy palladium and platinum on Monday and hold the position in it for the whole week. Sell copper on Tuesday and buy it back on Friday.

PAL is my favourite stock and for short term you can watch SWC.

CURRENCIES

US dollar will try to bounce back from its current low but this move will be artificial, so don't think that Dollar has come out from weakness. Strength in USD should be taken as an opportunity to sell because it will fall again quite fast. I also see many buyers of USD will be in problem.

Will Saturn be able to fulfil my dream price of Japanese Yen to reach 80 (predicted when it was 135 and now is at 105.50), Euro 1.38 (predicted when it was 0.83 and now at 1.29) and Pound 2.10 (predicted when it was 1.38 and now it is 1.855)?

A favourable news for dollar will come during this week but it won't help US dollar much and after a small rebound it will collapse again.

I will update again on Wednesday or Thursday.

OIL

This week will be very interesting for oil because I see a sudden rise in oil prices from Thursday. One can buy for short term on Thursday. As you all know that my astrological calculation favoured oil since last two years and my predicted price target of $55 was fulfilled last month (It doesn't mean that in future it won't rise again).

The least it can touch is $43.80 and the most it can go up is to $53 again.

STOCK MARKET

I have been wrong on stock market prediction since last three weeks. I am doing detailed study on short term movement of the stock market because in the past fifteen years I have been 98% accurate on its long term movement. I see this Wednesday it should start falling. I will write more on stock market on Wednesday after it closes.

COFFEE

It is rising and will rise for few more months. On Wednesday and Thursday coffee prices will remain weak but one can buy before Thursday closing.

First target of $98 is not very far.

COTTON

Monday and Tuesday cotton prices will remain to the up side but the middle of the week they will fall. Those who are thinking of investing for two months can start adding position from Friday.

GRAINS

In the month of May/June 2004 I recommended to sell the previously held positions and to go short in grains, we all witnessed that how fast they collapsed. Now they are all in my buying list and specially CORN looks to be the favourite.

During this week you will receive a few news alerts (predictions) from me. I want you to perform well during this year.

Thanks & GOD Bless

Mahendra 14 Nov

Last evening from Mahendra:

Dear Members,
I mentioned a few important points in my this week's newsletter and I would like review them again.

GOLD

From my newsletter:

1. This week as well as next week will be a turning point for gold, as it will start rising against all other major currencies of the world.

2. There will be an interesting fight between the price range of $433 to $444. I am expecting gold to break $444 on Tuesday and will move up quite fast so hold your position till Tuesday. If gold is showing some sign of weakness on Wednesday than you should sell at least fifty percent of your position FOR SHORT TERM but buy it back on Friday.

My latest view after watching Tuesday and Wednesday's trend:

I was expecting gold to cross $444 on Tuesday but it happened on Wednesday and also it didn't show a weak sign so it a clear indication that now gold doesn't want to move down even when the weak planetary combination are taking place. Hold your position but don't add new position on Thursday and Friday. One can partly book profit around my foremost predicted target $448. I see a small drop for a few hours in the next 48 hours but don't do a mistake to short it because bull run in gold is not yet over.

All my members must remember my advice - Don't short GOLD because this year target is not yet fulfilled.

SILVER

Tuesday and Wednesday silver prices remain stable without much movement, any downward trend in gold might effect silver for the few hours.

CURRENCIES

From tomorrow I see a diminutive correction in all major currencies against dollar, so book partly profit but don't short all major currencies against USD because still bull-run is not over.

STOCK MARKET

Stock market went up more then 100 points and closed 60 point up. I spent last two days in detail astrological study on stock market and here is my final verdict - Stock market can remain positive till next Tuesday but than after no power on earth can help to market to rise. From now and next Tuesday is I don't see rising but it will remain volatile. SO ONE CAN HOLD SHORT POSITION IN MARKET.

COFFEE

From my newsletter - It is rising and will rise for few more months. On Wednesday and Thursday coffee prices will remain weak but one can buy before Thursday closing.

First target of $98 is not very far.

On Monday when trading started nobody ever though that COFFEE would sky rocket by $11 in three hours without any news, but it happened!. My first target of $98 was very close but still has not fulfilled. I am still waiting for it to happen soon. On can even buy at this price.

GRAINS

From my newsletter - In the month of May/June 2004 I recommended to sell the previously held positions and to go short in grains, we all witnessed that how fast they collapsed. Now they are all in my buying list and specially CORN is my favourite.

All the grains are pad-locked in the wave of nature (astrology is nature).

Final Note:

I am charging high fee for my newsletter, so it becomes my duty to guide on each important stage.

Enjoy the week, I will be watching and guiding you time to time.

Thank you for your support and faith in my work.

I will forward you again small alert tomorrow.

Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra 17 Nov 20.40pm
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/

Bill's faith, All credit goes to him because he and 321gold introduce me to metal community in 2001. Today Bill's comment on my work on http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

"My man Mahendra the seer did it again. He is amazing. He called for $444 gold the middle of last week by yesterday. Got it today. His long-standing call for $448 gold is still on. Once again he blows away the analysis of the Goldman Sachs and Barclays of the world. Their gold market analysis is pitiful. Neither have credibility. Both have been consistently wrong for 3 years".

Once again I am putting here this week newsletter to review. I still believe that astrology has a unique role to play in the most unpredictable world financial market.

The gold shares continue to act terribly. More and more investors seem to be selling ahead of the "expected" collapse. The XAU lost 2.03 to 108.31 and the HUI gave up 5.26 to 239.87. Once again HUI 240 could not hold. Many of the shares are trading as if gold just broke down below $400 per ounce. How strange!

Gold remains THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime. The general investing public does not even have it on its radar screen yet. What an opportunity to pick up some of these beaten-down shares.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Catherine Austin Fitts, former Managing Director of the highly regarded investment house Dillon Read, is re-entering the investment business. It is with great pleasure I post this note from Catherine:

Bill:
With the key litigation milestones behind us as of August 2004, I am proceeding to build Solari, Inc. Here is the description I promised.

Initially, our fee business is composed of two types of clients whose primary interest is accessing traditional business and investment advice integrated with an understanding of the political "dark side" of our government and markets:

Investors:

I am providing investment strategy advice for high net worth individuals and am in discussion with private firms which manage assets for them. So far, clients want advice on the full spectrum of personal and professional risk issues a family is managing these days.

Entrepreneurs:

I am providing risk management advice for entrepreneurs who are dealing with a variety of fraud, corruption or dirty tricks as well as related litigation.

In addition, we are developing a prototype for the starter kits for Solari Investor Circles, investment clubs that focus on local and alternative investment -- of which precious metals will be an important category. The starter kits will be launched as a beta "freeware" through the web in January. The goal of the Circles is to help teach small investors how to profit from shifting their time and money away from the "political economy" back to the "real economy." We are accepting donations through our website to support the freeware access. Based on grassroots networking efforts over the last three years to determine the optimal design for this product, we believe that there are approximately 500-1,000 early adapters ready to prototype Solari Investor Circles as soon as the beta starter kits are available.

Once the Solari Investor Circles starter kits are launched we will proceed with a first round of financing to capitalize Solari, Inc. Our business goal is to create a venture firm that will attract local and global investors into returning profitably to the "real" economy.

Solari - Who We Are
http://www.solari.com/about/index.htm

Catherine

Heads-up on the DEC option front:

Bill,
Just checked the open interest in the Dec gold call options at the Nymex web site.
I was surprised to see the numerous options that will probably expire worthless.
If gold closes above $440, open interest will increase by almost 25,000 contracts (see table below).
If there is a price spike above $500, open interest will increase by more than 63,000 contracts.
What a delta surge that would be!
And these are the tip of the iceberg compared to OTC options.
All the best,
Raymond

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/Midas1118.gif]

Some precious metals thoughts from Germany:

Dear bill,
since I first went to my local bank to buy 2 kilograms of silver and 50 grams gold (end of '01) a lot has changed.

When I tried to get my first silver, the bullion dealer at my local bank was surprised, why I didn't take gold instead. Reason: on silver buying in Germany we have to pay additionally 16% VAT, on gold none. It took about 10 days to complete that order.

Nowadays it's totally different. I get gold and silver within 2 days (only last order took 4 days). They had some difficulties with getting the silver bullion.

I am usually there every other month to do some bullion buying. Last time I had some small talk with the bullion dealer at the bank. I am by far not the only one in our town (population about 26,000) who buys silver by the kilograms.
Gold/silver bullion and coin buying has - according to him - nearly tripled within the last 12 month.

One of the leading bullion dealers here in Germany, 'pro aurum', wrote last week in their customer informations, that volume on gold and silver bullion sales were that strong that they couldn't complete orders as timely as they usually try to do.

-*-*-*-

Unfortunately, Bill, here comes my portion of salt into the GATA-point-of-view-soup:
Through Reginald Howe, Frank Vereroso, James Turk, Mike Bolser and others we have some good knowledge of who sold when, BUT: Who bought it all?

We know:
- India is increasingly buying over the years,
- Japan has and had its seasonally buying,
- China is increasingly taking some,
- Turkey is frequently buying,
- Surely, from the Middle-East comes buying again and again,
- Russia is - at least holding the bigger part of it's production for itself
- as the newest one, Argentina is on the buyers side,
- on Europe/US I can get no numbers (except from GFMS, but I have
some doubt on that numbers)

When I add all together, I get - over the thumb - at least a difference of about 1000 tons/year of gold, leaving with unknown destinations.

So we have - somehow - a situation where we know by far more about the sellers than about the 'real' buyers.

To me that sounds like from Sun Tsu or the classic chinese strategies 'Make noise in the east, but attack in the west'.

The Reason is: When somebody tries to get a mayor portion of all gold - he too, is interested in low prices, (until he got what he wants) so he is very possible an active part of the suppression gang.

Without a knowledge on the buyers - witch should match the knowledge on the sellers, GATA (and it's supporters) are still somehow vulnerable.

Best Regards

Klaus D. Brakebusch
Frankfurt, Germany

Klaus,
Nice input. Good stuff and thanks. However, disagree totally with your conclusion. It is those buyers who are loading up on gold, which if anything will bag the West, not bury us gold longs.

Silver guru and GATA friend David Morgan just came out with:

Silver and China Special Report

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/china-davidmorgan.pdf

Treasury Secretary Snow is losing all credibility with his inane comments:

Asia News
Markets see Snow comments as green light to sell dollar

LONDON : Far from reversing the dollar's slide, comments from US Treasury Secretary John Snow have been taken by markets as a sign that Washington welcomes a weaker currency, to the alarm of eurozone officials as the euro hit new highs.

Snow's repeated insistence on a tour of Europe this week that the US "strong dollar" policy remains intact has been received with increasing disbelief by dealers, who chased the euro to a new record high of 1.3074 dollars……

For the full story:

Click here: Channelnewsasia.com

-END-

Gold ETF approaches 4 mln shares traded

By John Spence, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:26 PM ET Nov. 18, 2004

BOSTON (CBS.MW) - By lunchtime on its first day of trading, StreetTracks Gold Shares (GLD: news, chart, profile) traded over 3.7 million shares, well over the 2.3 million underwritten shares that were priced in the initial public offering.

After a long wait and much anticipation, the first exchange-traded fund that invests directly in gold bullion began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.

"This one is going to go gangbusters," said Jim Wiandt, editor of IndexUniverse.com.

"It opens up a new asset class to investors," he added. "And arguably, this could completely tilt the gold market and have macro-economic consequences."

The World Gold Council is the fund's sponsor and Boston-based State Street is the marketing agent.

Blocks of 100,000 shares are redeemable into gold bullion, and shares should be priced at about 10 percent of the price of a troy ounce of gold.

Earlier this week gold reached a 16-year high and some observers are calling for it to hit $450 before the end of the year. The new gold ETF could open a floodgate of new cash into gold as it will make investing in bullion easier for investors and many analysts said anticipation of the gold ETF was pushing gold higher before the launch.

"The introduction of the StreetTracks Gold ETF represents a major step forward for the ETF industry and investors by allowing individuals and small institutions an easy and cost-efficient vehicle to invest in gold as an asset class," said Jim Pacetti, head of consulting firm ETF International. "Previously, one had to use either the physical gold with the associated storage and insurance costs and wide spreads or use derivatives."

The World Gold Council first filed the prospectus with the SEC in May 2003 and managed to beat ETF giant Barclays Global Investors to the punch by being first to market.

BGI has filed a gold ETF with the SEC to be called iShares COMEX Gold Trust, which is slated to list on the American Stock Exchange.

Together, these products could gather $2 billion in assets in the next six months, Pacetti believes.

"There is certainly retail demand, but one interesting aspect of this story is that many institutional players had before been restricted from either holding gold directly or holding futures on gold," added Wiandt.

Both ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold owned by the trust, less the expenses of the trust's operations.

The funds will pay their fees by selling off small amounts of gold bullion. In other words, the fractional amount of physical gold represented by each share will decrease over the life of the trust.

Gold, like artwork, is classified as a collectible by the IRS and is therefore taxed at a higher 28 percent capital-gains rate in the United States after being held for more than one year.

According to filings, both ETFs will be structured as grantor investment trusts rather than registered investment companies, and expenses will be priced identically at 0.4 percent of assets. The Bank of New York will be the trustee for both ETFs.

Elsewhere, gold ETFs have already been listed in England, Australia, and South Africa.

In midday trading, shares of the gold ETF were down 0.7 percent to $44.12.

John Spence is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch in Boston.

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