Beiträge von Tambok

Für Indian Summer noch ein bischen früh.

Aber wer weiß, können morgen ja mal ne Ausnahme machen so ab 14.30 UHr MEZ

Toronto ist seriös, aber Vancouver.....................

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.echoworld.com/B01/B0109/109c-RStu-Elch.jpg]

In Down_Under geht´s in ein paar Stunden wieder los.

Und ich denke die kommende Woche mit den GM rauf.

Der Can_Dollar ist zu dicht am USD, eine Bremse.

Am Aesch der Welt iat´s freier; zumindest vorübergehend.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.staff.uni-marburg.de/~naeser/buchheim.jpg]

ELDO,

wenn ich Deine NachUrlaub-Postings lese denke ich, daß Du

am Tegernsee heimlich Tips von Lothar Günther Buchheim

bekommen hast. Das ist der, der DAS BOOT geschrieben hat.

Was Du von den Zulus hälst, sagt der über seine Nachbarn

am Tegernsee. Letztens konntest Du dir vorstellen in

Kärnten zu siedeln, das war sicher der Tag der Begegnung.

Laut Bucheim muß man sich am meisten vor Leuten

hüten, die Tuja-Lebensbäume an der Grenze pflamzen

und dann mit der Heckenschere auf 1,5 m gleichmäßig stutzen.

Die Millionäre in den Nachbarvillen bezeichnet Buchheim

gleichmäßig und öffentlich als Gully-Ratten. Der ist Multimillionär

und zwar hauptsächlich, weil er als erster Deutsche Expressionisten

gesammelt hat. Afrikanische Masken hat er auch.

Im Ernst, mach ambesten einen Copyright-Vermerk in jedes

Posting mit Kalenderjahr und fortlaufender Nummer.

Ansonsten sind die Sachen gemeinfrei und jeder darf alles drucken,

ohne daß Dir auch nur ein Lolly zusteht.

Guten morgen allerseits,

das einzige was ich von dem letzten dutzend Postings hier im Thread
kapiere ist der Pferdeschwanz auf der Matratze, der fragend alle anschaut.

Habe mich aber auch nicht mit Canadian Juniors beschäftigt und
meide alle Silberminen wie der Teufel das Weihwasser.

Verluste mach ich zwar auch, aber auf Tambok-art.

Wie sprach Paulus zu den Korinthern, jeder soll auf sein Facon selig werden.

Daran sollte man beim Investieren in China denken.

Denn die Chinesen haben das verinnerlicht.

(vergleichbar wie die Kreuzfahrten in Arabien unvergessen sind)

Der Boxeraufstand
===============

Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts machen sich ausländische Mächte in China

unbeliebt. England, Frankreich, Russland, die USA und Deutschland

beanspruchen Gebiete und Vorrechte für sich. Ihre Missionare stellen

das traditionelle Denken, der Chinesen auf den Kopf. Während die

Kolonialherren durch Industrialisierung und Handel immer reicher

werden, müssen Einheimische hungern. Bei vielen Chinesen kommt deshalb Hass auf.

Die sogenannte Boxerbewegung, ein Geheimbund aus Kampfsport-

begabten, jungen Männern, macht sich zum Ziel, die verabscheuten

Ausländer mit Gewalt zu verjagen. Sie zerstören Kirchen, töten

Missionare und chinesische Christen - der Kaiserhof schaut zu. Im

Frühjahr 1900 rückt der Aufstand aus den Provinzen bis nach Peking vor.

Am 20.Juni eskaliert der Konflikt: "Boxer" töten den deutschen

Diplomaten von Ketteler und beginnen mit der Belagerung des

Botschaftsviertels, das großteils von hohen Mauern umgeben ist.

Hier glaubten sich die Diplomaten aus Europa, Japan und den USA

sicher, hierhin flohen chinesische Christen. Jetzt müssen sie alle, etwa

3000 an der Zahl, um ihr Leben bangen, notdürftig verteidigt von einer

Schutztruppe, verpflegt mit schrumpfenden Vorräten. Ihre Rettung kommt

am 14. August, als internationale Truppen Peking erreichten und die

Stadt einnehmen. Im September 1901 muss China das so genannte

Boxerprotokoll unterzeichnen - die darin geforderten

Entschädigungszahlungen ruinieren das Reich finanziell.

Wasserstands-Meldung zum Wochenende ASX:

BTV 0,046 ASD bei über 30 Mio Stück Umsatz.

(keine Ahnung warum 10% der Aktien an einem Tag neue Besitzer fanden)

NUSTAR NMC 0,060 ASD
(den Meldungen an die ASX ist zu entnehmen,
daß SBM ganz raus ist. Vielleicht bedeutet das ab sofort
mehr Beweglichkeit -auch beim Kurs-.)


Sollte nicht etwas Extremes passieren,

was bei so kleinen Klitschen nunmal gefährlich ist,

sind wir bei beiden erst ganz am Anfang.

Tschonko,

habe gerade erst Dein Posting von gestern abend gesehen,

obwohl ich viel hier lese.

Erstmal möchte ich die Feststellung bestätigen, daß ich

"auch zocke". Ein theoretischer Hintergrund macht mir Spaß und ist

sowas wie ein Stützkorsett. Andere haben dafür die Astrologie.


Von den Austral-GM verspreche ich mir einiges.

Irgendwie leuchtet mir das mehr ein als Canadian-Juniors.

Es riecht mehr nach Erde. Vielleicht hat es mir nur die

naive, fast bäuerliche Sprache auf den Austral-Homepages angetan.

Welche ich preferiere hatte ich gesagt.: CRS, DOM, PSV, EQI,

PPD, MEE, NMC, SGX und Basis PEM, SMY.

Amerikas habe ich auch APG, QRL, RIC, K, TWG, IMG, DSM

also durchaus auch sowas wie Juniors.

Malachite, den Namen habe ich gehört, weiß aber nicht um was es da geht.


gruss

tambok

2. Art. zu JCI s. u.
===========

Wie steht´s um WAR?
=================

Aus MININGMX.com vom 03.08.05

le vulnerable to shareholder activism
==============================

: Tue, 02 Aug 2005
[miningmx.com] --

Gray, the Cape-based fund management company, has raised the

prospect of legal action if Brett Kebble, CEO of recently suspended

Randgold & Exploration, has irretrievably sold down the company’s stake in Randgold Resources.

That would be one conclusion from intriguing comments made by

Stephen Mildenhall, chief investment officer of Allan Gray, which has

interests in a number of Kebble aligned firms, principally a 25% stake in Western Areas.

Speaking to Business Day, a South African newspaper, Mildenhall said

Allan Gray would “consider its options” regarding the alleged sale of 9.9

million shares in Randgold Resources by Randgold & Exploration. At a

market value of some R1.3bn, the sale of these shares is a large

enough transaction to have required the sanction of Randgold &

Exploration shareholders. This is in terms of South Africa’s Companies

Act, a fact Mildenhall acknowledges.

The word from the Kebble camp is that Brett Kebble regards the loaning of the shares as “a technicality”. That sounds familiar if not ominous since a court investigation into Brett Kebble’s alleged share price manipulation, dating back to 2000 and involving the shares of Harmony Gold and former gold company, Randfontein Estates, has similarly been explained by Kebble.

In an interview with Miningmx, Mildenhall repeated his concerns: “We would take it very seriously if Randgold & Exploration had sold its shares in Randgold Resources. It’s a very significant event. We will consider all our options.”

Brett Kebble isn’t currently speaking to the press about this matter, but a danger for him is that even if Randgold & Exploration’s financial figures are submitted next week as expected, and the firm resumes trading on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE), he will have erred enough to be charged with fresh allegations of corporate malfeasance.

This, in turn, raises the prospect that his position at Western Areas,

where he is also CEO, becomes compromised; untenable even.

Assuming this turn of events, it’s possible Western Areas could ‘come

into play’, although as Steve Shepherd, an analyst for JP Morgan,

observed: “there aren’t any natural buyers’.

Western Areas’ market attractiveness is profoundly constrained by a gold

hedge account having pre-sold a large share of South Deep’s gold

production until 2014, a 350,000 oz/year gold mine on South Africa’s

West Rand that Western Areas shares in a 50:50 joint venture with Placer Dome.

In a report written last month, the ‘toxic’ hedge book was estimated by

RBC Capital Markets analyst, Georges Lequime, to have a liability of

about $230m. “That sounds close to our estimate of the liability,” Shepherd said.

“That’s a quantifiable liability that can be dealt with,” said another analyst

who declined to be named. Were Kebble forced to resign from Western

Areas, it’s entirely possible Allan Gray would settle the hedge book with a

R2bn rights offer that would also serve to dilute JCI’s 39% stake in Western Areas.

But it’s a complicated matter. Placer Dome has pre-emptive rights over Western Areas’ 50% stake in South Deep. Though it must be doubted the Canadian miner has the appetite to absorb the whole of South Deep, it would certainly use its pre-emptive stake to take a lead position in developing a new, more co-operative partner.

In this light, Placer might conceivably frame a deal with an empowerment angle whilst simultaneously avoiding diluting its own 50% holding.

And what of Anglo American? It was hoping to disinvest of its 15% stake in Western Areas via an empowerment deal with Inkwenkwezi, a company established by Kebble using his long-standing contacts.

If Kebble’s mining empire is sinking beneath a pile of debt, Anglo will surely remain a shareholder in Western Areas. Perhaps it would still want to sell its shares? This is not to properly mention the potential role of Gold Fields, a firm that has long been associated with the deeper reaches of the South Deep deposit.

There are more angles to the future of Western Areas than a treatise on Pythagoras.

In the meantime, Mildenhall said his company would be examining the accounts of Randgold & Exploration next week. “We will see what the adjustment is,” he said of Randgold’s own disclosure that the value of the 9.9 million shares in Randgold Resources would be listed in investments and not equity accounted.

“Randgold had an extension to submit these financial figures. To miss that is inexcusable,” Mildenhall said.

Most of Allan Gray’s R900m investment in the Kebble companies is in Western Areas (about R80m is in JCI and Randgold & Exploration). But Mildenhall is adamant there’s value yet in Randgold.

Allan Gray has also recognised the long-term value in Western Areas, and has a track-record of shareholder activism. Its resources investment officer, Sandy McGregor, is a non-executive director of Western Areas. “Any number of people could run Western Areas,” Mildenhall said.

» JCI, Randgold suspended by JSE
» JCI throws Matodzi lifeline
» DRDGOLD issues writ against JCI
» JCI walking fine line
» Screws tighten on JCI

JCI's debenture conundrum
==========================
Vic de Klerk
Posted: Tue, 02 Aug 2005
[miningmx.com] -- THE reasonably sharp fall in JCI’s price from 29c to the current 16c/share during the past month is probably the result of cash flow problems rather than any of the scores of other uncertainties plaguing the group. Those include issues such as criminal charges against the Kebbles (father Roger and son Brett) and also the JSE threatening to suspend the company’s listing because its financial statements for the year to March 2005 are still outstanding.

Furthermore, nothing has come so far of the group’s black partner – OrlyFunt – which was going to be listed without delay and make JCI’s shortage of cash disappear.

The cash flow sword hanging over JCI’s head arises from its obligation to redeem the 307m debentures it issued – and also listed on the JSE (code JCDD) – by January next year at a cost of more than R405m if interest is included. JCI simply doesn’t have that kind of cash; nor does it have sufficient liquid or other assets that can be sold in order to meet that obligation.

Speculators – they clearly aren’t investors – in these debentures are also starting to have increasing doubts about whether they’ll receive the promised 125c cash per debenture by 16 January 2006. An interest payment of around 6,6c is also payable in December this year.

There are currently plenty of sellers of these debentures at 86c. Speculators believe that, as so often in the past, the Kebbles will again pull a very big rabbit out of a very small hat and they can now buy the debentures for 86c and earn no less than 50% over just on six months.

For investors who still own some of these debentures and can’t afford to lose their money it would be best to sell to one of the few buyers prepared to pay 80c.

A return of 100%/year is wonderful, but in the case of JCI even the possibility of that return wouldn’t make up for the risk involved.

Keine Sorge: Droopy paddelt ein schnelles Einbaum für seine Aktionäre

Alooa tambok

aus Fiji-Times-online 02-08-05

Gold production falls
================

(Tuesday, August 02, 2005)

EMPEROR Mines' gold production fell during the June quarter but the
========
company believes a recovery plan will get its Vatukoula mine in Fiji back on its feet.

The company reported a drop in production compared to the previous

quarter, partly due to equipment failure which prompted a warning in May

that the company expected a full year loss of more than $18million.

According to Melbourne Age, the company had produced 18,989 ounces

of gold in the June 2005 quarter compared to 34,539 ounces in the

previous corresponding quarter.

The company has finalised a financial and operational plan to restore

the mine to positive cash flow and creating a sustainable, long term

future for the company and its Fijian operations.

"The plan involves total capital expenditure of $15million over the next 12

months which will reduce operating costs by about $10million per

annum," Emperor said.

It also envisages production of about 650,000 tonnes of ore per year at

about eight grams of gold per tonne to produce 145,000 ounces of gold a year.

[I

aus Business Day vom 02-08-05

Randgold & Exploration explains delay
==============================

Gold miner Randgold and Exploration (RNG) detailed the reasons for the

delay in the release of the group's audited financial results for the year

ending December 2004.

Yesterday, Randgold and Exploration's shares on the JSE were

suspended as a result of the company's failure to submit its audited

2004 annual financial statements by last Friday.

On April 29, Randgold published preliminary results for the year ended December 31, 2004. During the final audit, certain issues related to the Randgold accounts arose which slowed the completion of the annual financial statements, the company said. Previously, Randgold's investment in London-listed Randgold Resources was accounted for by equity accounting. In the course of the year, Randgold and Exploration loaned 9.9-million shares in Randgold Resources to Bookmark Holdings and although these shares were to be returned to Randgold, in terms of accounting rules there should have been a change in accounting for Randgold's investment in Randgold Resources. Expert advice was sought and after lengthy consideration it was concluded that the method of accounting had to be changed to one of investment accounting, which would see the fair value of investments reflected. As a result of the change, Randgold's preliminary results as previously published are to be revised to show the impact of taking the change in the market value of Randgold Resources to equity reserves and bringing to account a portion of the attributable income on an equity method. Another issue which arose was that the audited financial statements of a group subsidiary, Kabusha Mining and Finance changed significantly from those provided for in the preparation of the reviewed preliminary financial results published mainly as a result of the liability that has been raised of 52 million rand owing to Benoryn for Aflease (AFL) shares purchased. "This amount was not reflected in the accounts provided to compile the reviewed preliminary results," Randgold said. In the preliminary results, the fair value adjustments on listed investments were accounted for in equity reserves and the reduction in value was considered as not to be permanent nature. "Because of the continued low market price of these investments subsequent to year-end, in conjunction with the auditors it has been decided to account for this in the income statement now," Randgold and Exploration said. During the audit, obtaining information on the Angolan diamond concessions proved "extremely difficult" and was only resolved at the beginning of July. Final geological reports were only received late last week and the valuations are now complete, the company said. "We are working round the clock to incorporate the outstanding information into the final accounts. It is a large task but one that we believe is nearly complete. Given this, we are hopeful that the suspension will be short lived," said Randgold's Financial Director Hennie Buitendag. "On behalf of all of us at Randgold I would like to apologise for our failure to file on time; it is deeply regretted," he added.

@Eldo,


"verhext" scheint nur DRD.

Von Harmony und den Kebble-Minen (Rangy, JCI) erwarte

ich Performance.


Nachgekauft habe ich kleine und mittlere Australier:

Croesus, Dominion, Metex , Perseverance, Pan Palladium

und am Verücktesten Explorer Batavia Mining BTV (MKP ca. 10 Mio USD).


[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.haskinspress.com/images/delia-2-fish_72.jpg]

Sirene angelt große Fische. Einer ist noch rot.

Gruss

Tambok

Aus MININGMX.com vom 01.08.05

JCI, Randgold suspended by JSE
============================

Posted: Mon, 01 Aug 2005
[miningmx.com] -- JCI and Randgold & Exploration have been suspended from the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE) for failing to publish their financial figures, a development that raises questions over the health of the Kebble family empire.

“The JSE Limited wishes to advise that, as a result of the company’s failure to comply with the JSE’s listings requirements by not submitting its provisional annual financial statements timeously, the listing of its securities has been suspended with immediate effect,” the JSE said of JCI in an announcement this morning.

The JSE made a similar announcement about 10 minutes later in respect of Randgold & Exploration.

John Burke, head of listings at the JSE, told Business Day today: “If we don’t have the reports by (today), then we will suspend them.” Quoting JCI spokesman David Barritt, Business Day said JCI staff were “working over the weekend to sort this issue out”.

Brett Kebble, who is CEO of both companies, said recently that he was seeking more information regarding the company’s investments in certain Angolan diamond ventures. But the market is awash with speculation that Kebble’s mining empire is about to crumble under pressure of debt.

For instance, Kebble is short $13m in development of South Deep, a gold mine on the West Rand of Johannesburg that another firm, Western Areas, owns in joint venture with Placer Dome. JCI has leant money to Western Areas which the latter is hoping to pay back by means of a rights offer.

Another Kebble related company, Matodzi Resources, is flirting with bankruptcy after it was required by the JSE to restate its accounts such that certain preference shares had to be recorded on the balance sheet as debt. JCI offered to convert the preference shares into ordinary shares taking a 57% stake in Matodzi and diluting the company’s empowerment status.

The suspension of JCI therefore also raises questions about its ability to bail out Matodzi Resources.
we will suspend themThere are other suggestions that Brett Kebble’s mining investments are struggling to make ends meet. Randgold & Exploration is thought to have sold down its 32% stake in Randgold Resources, a UK and US listed gold mining and exploration company. Kebble said the shares had been optioned out and could be repurchased, but Mark Bristow, CEO of Randgold Resources, said there was no evidence of such lending of shares.

It is thought that Kebble sold Randgold Resources shares to help meet financial commitments elsewhere within his network of mining investments.

And yet Kebble related companies continue to grow their businesses elsewhere. Finance Week reported this week that OrlyFunt, Brett Kebble’s newly created empowerment vehicle, had bought 38 million shares in Sekunjalo Investments, an investment holding company with interests in healtcare and information technology.

There is further trouble on the horizon for Kebble. The Nasdaq exchange in the US has threatened to delist Randgold & Exploration if it fails to publish its annual report.

"ein schüchternes Märchen und die alte Leier"

Überschrift frei ins Dramatische übersetzt

von tambok

aus MarketWatch vom 01.08.05

A cautionary tale and a 'classic script'
=============================

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --






I've been thinking about this because of China's revaluation of the yuan. Things seem to have quieted down, just as John Dessauer predicted in his Dessauer's Investor's World. (See my July 25 column.)

In his most recent comments, Dessauer doesn't comment at all about exchange rates -- not unusual for him, despite his letter's international orientation -- and, in his blithely bullish way, has gone back celebrating earnings results and deriding worries about a U.S. housing bubble.

A be-on-alert view on the greenback comes from the respected Bridgewater Daily Observations, an institutional service put out by Connecticut-based money managers Bridgewater Associates.

Bridgewater emphasizes that "this is a regime change, not just an exchange-rate change."

It argues that "due to the Chinese peg, Asian monetary policy has basically been locked into a dollar system. No Asian country wants to lose competitiveness to China."

China's official removal of the dollar-peg system in favor of a basket of currencies "means that the Asian dollar-based monetary system is about to collapse," Bridgewater warns.

Bridgewater makes a powerful analogy to the international economic situation in the late 1960s and the early 1970s -- fascinating to me because the resulting disruption, and the discrediting of a conventional wisdom that was at least as entrenched as today's free-market triumphalism, spelled a spectacular boost to the investment-letter industry.

Japan, Bridgewater says, played the role back then that China fills today:

"The circumstances were similar -- i.e. a) real per-capita incomes in Japan were very low relative to the U.S. (60%); b) the trade balance/ current account growth rates and investment/ savings were huge, and (c) the Japanese were trying to hold the exchange rate the same via huge bond purchases.

"The flip side of this is that the U.S. is moving toward a balance-of-payment crisis that is quite similar in its dynamic (although the imbalances are now greater in degree) to the dollar/debt crisis of the early '70s. ... While this process has been, so far, playing out in slow motion, the dollar crisis is unfolding entirely according to the classic script of a pegged currency falling apart."

One consequence, according to Bridgewater: "substantial adjustments" in U.S. bond yields that "have been held artificially low by the direct influence of central-bank bond purchases and the indirect effect of the China peg on U.S. economic conditions."

Bridgewater also points out that in the 1970s, U.S. debtors tended to retreat to gold.

Bottom line: "Even a moderation in [foreign] demand for U.S. assets would lead to a major second wave of weakness in the dollar. Outright selling of U.S. assets (which would force the U.S. to massively cut consumption) could be devastating.

"We believe the odds of a dollar/U.S. debt crisis in the next 12 months are elevated (say 50%)."

It puzzles me that so few commentators seem aware of Bridgewater's type of analysis, not just on Wall Street but even among investment letters. An arguable exception: the really hard-core gold bugs who remember the 1970s, like Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell

On Friday, Russell said: "The U.S. is losing control of its money. The control is gradually and subtly switching to our creditors, the Chinese and the Asians. The direction of the yuan in terms of dollars or dollars in terms of yuan may be the 'next big thing.' "

Because the downside is huge, any risk of the dollar becoming undermined is worth noting.

Indeed, Growth Stock Outlook's Charles Allmon said again last week that he thinks price of gold and the Dow Industrials ($DJ: news, chart, profile) could cross again -- say, in the 2,500 range.

I know, I know -- but it looked improbable before the 1970s currency crisis, too.

Tag Eldo,

soviel wie Du reist, das muß man jahrelang üben.

Aber ganz ohne Folgen für die Psyche ist es nicht

geblieben, wenn Du davon redest 7 Wochen Postings lesen zu wollen.

Wahrscheinlich über die ausgefallensten Exoten-Explorer.


Habe in den letzten Wochen einiges mit kleinem Gewinn verkauft:

Kinross, Goldfields, Lihir, Aquarius Platin.

Vielleicht kauf ich heute noch etwas Kinross zurück.

Überhaupt solange der PoG langsam nach oben krabbelt,

braucht man die Extrem-Exoten nicht.


Gruß

Tambok

BTV bei 0,041 ASD, knapp 20 Mio Stück Umsatz.


Übrigens heute kam der 4. Quartal-Bericht Croesus CRS raus.

SIEGEL schreibt in seiner Kolumne sinngemäß.

"CRS berichtet schlechte Zahlen und der Kurs steigt 4,5%."

Für meine Begriffe sind die Zahlen gut. Das haben einige

ebenso gesehen.

Der nächste Qurtalsbericht per 30.09.05 wird´s zeigen, wer auf´m Holzweg ist.

aus MINING WEEKLY 29.07.05

Kebble hits back as Placer claims $13m shortfall
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Western Areas CEO Brett Kebble has hit back at his Canadian partner Placer Dome, which claims to be owed $13-million by Western Areas to fund further development at the massive South Deep gold-mine on South Africa's West Rand.

Bloomberg reported yesterday that the Vancouver-based company said it would seek “remedies” for the failure of its partner to pay its share of development costs. It was suggested that Placer might force Western Areas to sell its share of gold production from South Deep to cover the shortfall.

South Deep is an equal joint venture between Western Areas and Placer Dome, and is the site of a multi-billion-rand twin-shaft project, which is some two years behind schedule in ramp-up to full production.

In a statement Kebble claims that the $13-million loss could be traced directly to a lack of preventative maintenance while Placer Dome was managing the mine and prior to the appointment of an 'independent' CEO at South Deep in June last year.

He said that Western Areas shareholders had lost “a small fortune” as a result of “mismanagement” and that Western Areas was “simply not prepared to keep on paying for their (Placer's) mistakes”.

Kebble said the claim would now form part of an expanded arbitration proceeding, adding that Western Areas had also already notified Placer of its intention to claim substantial damages due to management failures when the Canadian group was in charge of the mine.

In the statement, Kebble said that the $13-million related to additional losses suffered by Western Areas in the first quarter due to production problems, which he claimed were directly attributable to the poor management by Placer.

Kebble said, however, that he was determined to maintain cordial relations with Placer Dome “but they must appreciate that our historical and current claims must be taken seriously and that we cannot be held accountable for decisions made on their watch”.

He confirmed, meanwhile, that South Deep had enjoyed a strong second quarter ended June, with unit cash costs down 20% on the previous quarter. He said that a 24% increase in gold production over the previous quarter had boosted Western Areas' performance.

“We have not yet completed the accounting but my feeling is that the second quarter will be as good as the record breaking December quarter,” he said.

Kein Thema für WAR; aber für Kebble-Aktivitäten insgesamt

MINING WEEKLY vom 29.07.05

'Win-win water solution possible in North West'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South African gold-miner AngloGold Ashanti indicated, at its half-year results presentation in Sandton yesterday, that it was optimistic of a positive resolution to the water-pumping problem in the Klerksdorp-Orkney-Stilfontein-Hartebeesfontein (Kosh) area both for the mining industry as well as for the country as a whole.

AngloGold Ashanti South Africa region CEO Robbie Lazare said that there were ongoing court applications on which the company would not comment, but he indicated that serious and constructive discussions were under way involving three separate government departments as well as other mining groups.

Lazar added that discussions are progressing and that the situation needs all stakeholders to cooperate.

The three government departments currently involved include the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (Dwaf), the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (Deat) and the Department of Minerals and Energy.

To date, Dwaf has issued four directives compelling the miners, AngloGold Ashanti, DRDGold, Harmony Gold, Stilfontein and the liquidators of DRDGold's North West operations, to share pumping costs and provide the department with information.

Deat has since stepped into the fray and indicated that it too may issue directives that mirror those issued by Dwaf unless miners provide it with compelling reasons not to.

Last week, the department said that it would be evaluating responses before deciding on a course of action. It could not immediately be contacted for an update.

It now appears, however, that that the departments will be working together to resolve the issue, according to Lazare.

CEO Bobby Godsell indicated that the company aimed to turn the water problem into a valuable resource to the benefits of the whole country. This is a view oft stated by Simmer & Jack Mines CEO Gordon Miller, who would like to see Stilfontein turned into a water utility.

Godsell did not discuss a possible solution in detail, but said he had been proud of the contribution that AngloGold Ashanti was making to the debate as well as the model of cooperative governance that is now emerging.

However, the issue is beset with legal problems. Harmony Gold has taken the matter on appeal, which is yet to be heard, and a contempt of court order against Stilfontein - brought by Dwaf and AngloGold Ashanti - is complicated by the fact that Stilfontein's board of directors resigned en masse recently.

Decision has been deferred to an unspecified date as closing arguments were heard this week.

Aus Aljazeera-Online vom 28.07.05
===========================

Yuan float a move towards new currency zone
==================================
By Jude Wanniski

Thursday 28 July 2005, 1

To those of us who have followed the mysterious world of floating currencies and exchange rates since President Nixon cut the dollar loose from its gold anchor in 1971, the Bush administration’s pressure on China to break the yuan’s 11-year link to the dollar is one of the most interesting political issues of the year.

After several months of increasingly shrill complaints from members of Congress about the flood of cheap imports from China and the US trade deficit, China has now taken a major step to complete control over the yuan (renminbi or RMB). Where it had no control of its national currency during the years it totally accepted the Federal Reserve’s management of the dollar through the link, at 8.28 to the dollar, it has now broken free.

China’s first step was to appreciate the yuan to 8.11 to the dollar; but that from now on will move in one direction or another depending upon its relationship to a basket of currencies of its major trading partners.

This tiny 2.1% appreciation against the dollar will actually benefit the Chinese economy, because the dollar is now in inflationary terrain, the price of gold being at $425 oz when it should be under $400. The move thus removes that much inflationary pressure from the yuan and reduces the cost of capital for all yuan transaction, foreign and domestic.

It will not harm the US economy in the least, only benefit China. It is obvious from the shape of the new regime that the People's Bank of China has borrowed an idea from Singapore's central bank, which also manages its currency against an unspecified basket of other currencies - a mystery formula that permits it the greatest freedom in seeking the best "money" for domestic and export purposes.

Mystery basket

In a real sense, where American politicians have been accusing China of "manipulating" its currency by rigidly fixing it to the dollar, China can now really "manipulate" behind the curtain of its own mystery basket. In the 27 July Wall Street Journal, the deputy director of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Fang Xinghai, put it this way:

"China could have implemented the new currency regime without any initial revaluation. But the decision to accompany it with a small revaluation was a clever move that responds to both China's growing external surpluses and American demands for an appreciation in value of the yuan.

Since the new basket arrangement aims to keep China's nominal effective exchange rate relatively constant, it's quite impossible for the yuan to appreciate against the dollar by the much larger amount that many US politicians have demanded, unless the dollar declines dramatically relative to other major currencies.

Because the other major central bankers at least keep an eye on the price of gold, for signs of incipient inflations or deflations, it would be "quite impossible" as Fang suggests, for the dollar to decline dramatically against other major currencies unless the dollar/gold price shot up, above $450 oz, heading toward $500.

Optimum currency area

This has been exactly the advice China has been getting from Canadian economist Robert Mundell, who spends much of his time in Beijing and has listed a dozen reasons why China should resist a "significant" revaluation of the RMB that have been well-publicized in the Chinese press.

Because Mundell got his 1999 Nobel Prize in economics for work he did on "optimum currency areas" that led to the creation of the euro, his arguments carry great weight with the People's Bank of China. The fact he is Canadian also helps with the government, which is aware of the American advice to Moscow in 1989, the "shock therapy" that led to the great inflation of the rouble and the break-up of the Soviet federation.

The idea of an "optimum currency area" or "zone" is that neighbouring countries or those that engage in significant trade with each other benefit enormously from using a common currency-which is the effect when China gives the RMB a value it keeps identical to the dollar. Several other Asian countries have monetary policies that keep their currencies in line with the dollar and, ipso facto the RMB, becoming part of this broad trading zone.

Malaysia, for one, immediately joined China in revaluing its currency by 2.1%. In that sense, Malaysia clearly signalled that it was joining an RMB zone, moving away from a dollar zone.

RMB zone

An RMB zone? Yes. Unless the United States ends its own dollar manipulations, which show up in the serious fluctuations in the dollar/gold price, the Asian economies will almost certainly move toward a Chinese currency umbrella, providing a superior "money" that will end the dollar’s dominance in Asia.

Money, remember, is not only a medium of exchange to facilitate trade. It is, even more importantly, a unit of account that enables domestic and international producers to draw contracts over time. The superior money is one that holds its value in real terms over the lives of contracts short and long. When a currency fluctuates against gold over time, the costs of doing business increase as interest rates must climb to cover the risk.

In the United States, my own work shows that between 1945 and 1971, when the dollar was fixed to gold at $35 oz under the 1944 Bretton Woods arrangement, the real economy in the US grew by 4% per year. From 1971 when the dollar was floated to 2004, real growth of the US economy has managed only a pitiful 0.3% per year.

New Bretton Woods

Unless these inefficiencies are removed with a new "Bretton Woods arrangement," as Mundell calls it, Beijing, at some point, may decide that the costs of importing inflations and possibly new deflations outweigh the benefits of its imprecise currency zone. The intermediate step it has now taken moves it toward a fixed yuan/gold price. You might easily imagine the implications of this development.

China’s economy is not yet big enough or secure enough to take on an international banking role, but at current growth rates relative to the US, it could rival the US economy in several years. With a convertible currency in the near future, it could take the next step toward fixing the yuan/gold price instead of importing its monetary policy from one or several other nations.

It would be natural for Japan to break away from its currency zone with the US and join China's, as its trade with China continues to exceed its trade with the US.

Malaysia's Mohammed Mahathir had dreamt of pulling Islamic nations out of their dependence on the dollar by joining in a fixed rate system among them, behind a gold dinar. As his success has been limited, it may be that China will get there first. Not this year or even next, but sooner than later.

Jude Wanniski is a former associate editor of The Wall Street Journal,
======================================================
expert on supply-side economics and founder of Polyconomics, which helps to interpret the impact of political events on financial markets.

Man sollte sich mit dem Gedanken anfreunden,

daß Drooy mit circa 1,00 USD fair bewertet ist.

Jedenfalls indiziert das der Kursverlauf der letzten Wochen.

Der folgende MINEWEB Artikel vom 28.07.05 ist
nur von begrenztem Interesse

DRDGold looks to stretch BEE

Posted: '28-JUL-05

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --DRDGold, the South African and Australasian gold producer, says it aims to stretch its empowerment credentials over all its South African operations instead of bulk BEE at specific mines.

Khumo Bathong Holdings (KBH), DRD’s black empowerment partner at its Crown Gold Recoveries is the proposed empowerment partner that will acquire 15% of the South African assets.

In 2002, KBH bought a 60% stake in Crown Gold Recoveries. DRDGold now wants to take 45% of that stake and swap it with a 15% stake in DRD’s Blyvoor gold mine.

“The effect would be the ownership by KBH of 15% of all of DRDGOLD"s South African operations,” said a company statement, “DRDGOLD will facilitate the BEE transaction through vendor financing.”

The Memorandum of Understanding that has been signed so far also provides an option for a KBH lead, broad based consortium to buy a further 11% in DRD’s South African assets.

South Africa’s black empowerment legislation requires 26% ownership by 2014.

Re-opening operations

On Thursday, DRD also announced that its board will decide on August 24 whether or not to proceed with two growth projects at its Blyvoor mine.

One is to re-open the number 2 sub-shaft at a cost of R80.5 million and another is the expansion of the slimes dam project costing R2.3 million.

DRDGold says the number 2 sub-shaft project would produce about 770,491 ounces gold reserves and would restore Blyvoor’s life to 17 years. The first phase has been modelled at a gold price of R84,056/kg

The company says the move is motivated amongst other things, by “The need for replacement reserve tonnage in the face of steady decline in the number 5 shaft grade profile.”

The slimes dam project expansion is expected to be complete by the September quarter of this year. It would increase gold production by 12% to 230 ounces a month while decreasing operating costs.

Blyvoor produced 1,319 ounces or 3% more gold in the June quarter compared to the March quarter at cash operating costs of R81,606/kg

ellenlanger Artikel, aber alles kursrelevant

Board meets on South Deep gold expansion Thursday
===========================================

Posted: '27-JUL-05 15:28' GMT Mineweb
=================================

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- The Western Areas and Placer Dome

joint venture (PDWA JV) board is set to meet on Thursday (July 28) to

approve the proposed expansion project at the South Deep gold mine,

says chief executive, Brett Kebble.

“Should this plan be approved by the PDWA JV board, it could lead to an

increase in production to more fully utilise capital invested,” according to

the Western Areas annual report released at the end of June.

Following this development, South Deep is expected to operate at a

monthly mill throughput of 320,000 tonnes of reef and cash costs of

R57,000/kilogram, doubling annual gold production to approximately
=====================================================

800,000 ounces. The capital expenditure net of revenue attributable to
=============

Western Areas over the next three years is R500 million.

This would be another step in sorting out the financial difficulties that

currently beset Western Areas. The company’s auditors, KPMG, even

issued an emphasis of matter paragraph in the annual report.

To finance its half of South Deep’s expansion and existing capex,

Western Areas is looking to raise R800 million through a rights offer

which it announced earlier this year.

The circular for the offer will be sent out next Friday says Kebble, while

the actual offer will be complete by the end of August.

At the company’s annual general meeting on Wednesday, Kebble told

shareholders that, while the latest rights issue was not being

underwritten, the company’s large shareholders had given assurances

that they would follow their rights.

“Why pay underwriting costs if most shareholders are going to follow

their rights?” Kebble asked one inquisitive shareholder at the meeting.

Last year, JCI, underwrote a R400-million rights offer, which was

eventually 63% subscribed. As a result of the underwriting, JCI, where

Kebble is chief executive, increased its Western Areas stake to 39.5%.

This time round, “JCI will apply for as many excesses as it possibly can,”

says Kebble. Although JCI’s current cash flow situation is also not so spiffy.

At Wednesday’s AGM, shareholders approved the issue of 36 million new shares.

No price has been given yet, but Western Areas share price has been

slipping of late. On Monday, the shares traded at a 12-month low of

R17.75 each, considerably off the R30.50 per share price of last year’s rights issue.

When the upcoming rights offer was first announced, Western Areas

shares were trading at R23 each.

The hedge
========

Kebble told Mineweb on Wednesday that the Western Areas turnaround

will go in the order of “Mine plan, rights issue, hedge.”

In this year’s March quarter, Western Areas received R58,193/kg for its

gold, compared to the quarter’s spot price that averaged more than R83,000/kg.

On top of this, the long-term derivative liability stands at R1.8 billion in the

company’s end-2004 balance sheet.

Negotiations under way with the hedge banks, according to Western

Areas, to restructure the derivative structure so as to reflect the forecast

South Deep production profile more appropriately.

The main banks involved are said to be the AIG Group and Investec.

The annual report says that the gold committed in the derivative structure

equates to only 5% of Western Areas’s attributable reserves and so the

company would like to stretch it out to suit the mine plan better.

Western Areas’s attributable interest in the proven and probable

reserves categories amounts to 27.8 million ounces, with another 37.4

million ounces of resources. According to the annual report, the reserve

alone should support mining activities for more than another 60 years.

Operationally better

Without the hedge, South Deep is said to be doing much better.

The June quarter was said to be 20% higher in terms of production than

the previous quarter while also generating cash flow. The March quarter

produced 1,452 kilograms of gold, which points to gold production of

around 1,727 kilograms for the June quarter.

“We were operationally cash-flow positive for the June quarter, net of the

hedge,” said management at the AGM, “We should continue building up from there.”

Roger Resigning

Brett Kebble's father, Roger Kebble, also withdrew his nomination to be

re-appointed to the board at the last minute.

In a letter to Mafika Mkwanazi, the chairman of Western Areas, Kebble

senior gave two reasons for his departure, one relating to commitments

elsewhere and another at a potential conflict of interest.

“During the last week or two, my time and commitment to Simmer & Jack

has become time consuming and urgent,” said the withdrawal letter, “In

addition to the former, there are areas of potential conflict with Simmer’s

current interest in the Harmony number 4 shaft (Ezulwini).

Roger Kebble is chairman of Simmer & Jack, which recently acquired

and is attempting to turn around the North West gold operations that

DRDGold placed in liquidation earlier this year.

Share bottomed?

Mkwanazi and Brett Kebble both, not surprisingly, said that they felt the

company’s share price had bottomed out at the recent lows.

Kebble said that those who bought in at the R18 a share level would be

rewarded. Mkwanazi said that he himself was looking to enter the

market at these low levels and would one day leave the shares for his children.

But they are not alone, independent analyst, George Lequime at RBC

Capital markets, recently gave Western Areas a rating of “outperform, speculative risk.”

Price-target impediments to the RBC analyst’s 12-month price target

price of R27.50 per Western Areas share include gold price fluctuations,

rand exchange rates, inflation outlook, the production build up and

working cost projections, as well as the company’s ability to raise the

funding required to meet its forecast cash outflows.