Wie schätzt ihr Balmoral ein? Habe folgende Antwortmail bekommen....
xxx, thanks for taking the time to write today. I share your frustration, acutely.
The two analysts who cover us have updated their coverage – both are attached, Barry Allan (BUY) kept his target at $1.00, Phil Ker (BUY) dropped his target to $0.50. On the newsletter front Louis James (SELL) and Byron King (HOLD) both had fairly negative comments, and Jay Taylor came out with a thorough analysis and concluded “…Balmoral is a very undervalued stock”. All three are also attached.
Despite the market response, this is a solid Initial Resource Estimate for the shallow portion of a new Abitibi gold system using real-world mining costs and a lower than current gold price, and delivers 26-42% of our target guidance of 1.5-2.5 million ounces for the system overall. Clearly however, the combination of our failure to effectively manage the market’s expectations, coupled with the all but unmanageable expectations (and rampant speculation) of ‘it should be X million ounces plus after five years’ has led to a severe selloff that continues today. It’s reactionary, and overdone by a wide margin in my eyes:
The big question, and one I’ve obviously put a lot of thought into, is ‘are we fairly valued here?’ I think that the best way to answer that is to look at what our ounces are being valued at versus the other pre-production gold companies in the Abitibi. A lot of variables still remain, but if you’re looking for a quantifiable metric, you can’t do much better.
So we have three ounce counts to consider:
- Martiniere alone – 644,000 ounces
- Martiniere plus Grasset – 644K gold + 752K gold equivalent (see attached, done at Mar 15 metal prices) = 1,396,000 ounces
- Total global gold resource - the metric used below (Martiniere, Grasset, Northshore (559,000 ounces, historical) , and N2 (668,000 ounces, historical)) = 2,623,000 ounces
As of today we have a C$37M market cap, and C$7.5M in cash, which means that we are being valued at ~C$30M, or:
- Martiniere alone – C$46 per ounce
- Martiniere plus Grasset – C$20 per ounce
- Total global gold resource - the metric used below - C$10 per ounce
I looked at 21 of our peers in the Abitibi (see most recent whiteboard attached), either existing pre-production gold companies or ones that have been acquired in the past 6 years. Despite the market reaction, with the size and quality of this Initial Resource Estimate we have clearly now joined their ranks. I wanted to answer a simple question: what is an ounce of quality Abitibi gold worth? Note that all of the numbers below are for the global resource, IE including every single reported ounce.
- Quality, comparable pre-production gold assets in the Abitibi are currently valued at between C$46 and C$157 per in-situ global resource ounce, averaging C$101. The most comparable asset to Martiniere seems to be Probe’s Val D’or East project, which carries a C$98M valuation, or ~C$70 per in-situ global resource ounce.
- Quality, comparable pre-production gold assets in the Abitibi at acquisition have averaged C$192 per in-situ global resource ounce over the past 6 years or so, with the most recent transaction being Integra’s Lamaque Project, where the global resource fetched C$172 per ounce and the core asset (Triangle) C$224 per ounce.
In light of this, it seems pretty clear that the selloff is reactionary, and overdone by a wide margin.