UBS Global Research
20 January 2021
SSR Mining
2021 Guidance, More Investment Planned
SSR releases Dec-20 production results and issues 2021 guidance
SSR’s 2021 guidance is for production to be 720-800koz, inline with our expectations
but with higher costs and investment planned. Around US$100m more is planned to be
spent during 2021 than we expected, driven mostly by capitalised stripping (~US$50m)
and exploration (~US$50m). Management indicated this spend is to contribute towards
maintaining production at 700-800kozpa for the next 5 years, and extending mine
lives. We model group production declining to ~690kozpa by 2025e, so this higher
level of spend may lift our production forecasts if exploration is successful.
Management have guided for cashflow to be heavily weighted to H2 due to a heavier
investment spend in H1. This means that while a maiden dividend is set to be declared
in 2021Q1, material dividend upside surprise is likely to also be weighted to end of
2021. Free cashflow is a key component of our Buy thesis, with SSR trading on ~12%
FCF yield. We only model a 3% dividend yield so there is material upside risk to returns.
Dec-20 Production and 2021 Guidance in more detail
A summary of production for Dec-20 and 2021 guidance is on Figure 1. Production for
Dec-20 was 220koz on a group basis, +6% ahead of UBSe driven mostly by Marigold
which produced a record 77koz. Guidance for 2021 is 720-800koz, relatively in-line
with our forecast of 769koz. Costs guidance is US$1,050-1,110/oz, +6% higher than
UBSe at the midpoint. Marigold’s year of cash harvest appears to be more likely to
come in 2022. The guidance implies 2021 is a very high stripping year and that ore
stacked will still be below reserve grade.
Modelling Changes – cut to valuation from A$ appreciation
We have maintained our production forecast for 2021 at 769koz, but lifted our costs
on an AISC basis US$1,101/oz, the upper end of guidance. Higher costs drive a 4%
downgrade to our FY21e NPAT to US$449m. Our NPV is cut by 7% to A$28.35ps,
driven partially by higher costs but also due to appreciation in the AUD. We value SSR
using a gold price of US$1,900/oz and AUD of US$0.77 (vs US$0.74ps prior).
Valuation: A$28.35ps (DCF, US$1,900/oz long-term gold price)
Our price target of A$28.00 (previously $30.00ps) is based on our NPV.