Dies könnte vom echten Nostradamus stammen. Die Frage bleibt wie willst Du Deine finanzielle Gesundheit aufrechterhalten, wenn rund un Dich das globale Finanz- u. Währungssystem zusammenbricht?
Klingt nach Panikmache? Dann schau einmal genauer um Dich und versuch zu verstehen wie eine globalisierte Welt mit einem Währungssystem, dass einzig auf "Kredit", id est Debit aufgebaut ist überleben kann. Darüberhinaus haben Finanzderivate, also reine Wetten, getarnt als Risikostreuung, oder Absicherung in der Grössenordnung von 600 Billionen US $ vs 50 Billionen $ globale Wirtschaftskraft als Nationalprodukt ausgedrückt, das Risiko eines Mega Unfalls (a la' LTCM) wahrscheinlicher werden lassen.
Gold ist Niemandes Verbindlichkeit und hat über Jahrtausende seinen Wert bewahrt. Keine Papier Konfetti Währung hat historisch überlebt; Die Dollar Hegemonie wird dies auch nicht tun.
Die Frage bleibt - wie weit sind wir in der Entwicklung fortgeschritten? Nun seit 1913, der Einführung der FED ist vom Wert des US Dollars nur noch 3 Cent an Kaufkraft "wert".
Don't worry, be happy and buy another SUV and or home - Or buy some portfolio insurance ... Gold!
Or learn what others have to say:
@all
(jrmfl) May 20, 07:41
received this email late in the day yesterday, was forwarded by a sub who is an institutional client. make of it what you will, it is merely a perspective, like everything else here, from an HK trading desk.
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My son, who works for HSBC in Hong Kong managing trader of the debt department phoned me to tell me a big storm brewing at end of month.
It revolves around the CDOs, Collaterized Debt Obligations. I won't go into details, but what we just saw past weeks was tip of iceberg. I can't explain all but these hedge funds are long the hi beta element of the CDO and will have to act by the end of the month. i.e unload. FORD & GM being dropped from Lehman's index with 80 billion GM and FORD reduced to junk debt.
This will increase the weight on the junk debt market by 25% and this market CANNOT sustain that increase. THE 80 BILLION IS NOT YET PRICED IN AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DO TO GET SIZE IN THE JUNK TO UNLOAD. THERE WILL BE NO MARKET WHEN THE TIME COMES. THEY ARE ALREADY TO PULL THE TRIGGER. HEDGE FUND MANAGERS WILL BE FORCED TO BALANCE BY END OF MONTH. A DISASTER IS BREWING WHICH I SUSPECT WILL CAUSE A MAJOR SELL ON THE STOCK INDICES. A TRUE CREDIT CRUNCH.
The Junk market cannot sustain this 25% increase. Liquidation, however is a MUST because hedge fund losses are mounting by the 100s millions and they need to unload by end month. This is just an addition onto other hedge fund woes including yesterday's announcement for a floor as well as a ceiling put on any Far East reflation.
These funds are wrong footed here to the tune of several 100 million as well. These past days feel like a spoof to get markets up so the big boyz can unload. Highs now and down in June sounds about right. My son is convinced the sell-off will cause panic in the streets.
Regards,
X
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some marco/micro ramblings on the blinking lights:
we are going dark, in good time, but not before the cycle has wound up.
lights out, but not until the fed has attempted to monetize the governments way out of their hole.
or...has the action of the fed reached a new level of desperation. the last month has been over the top. the last 5 days have been over mount everest. the pig is desperately trying to go down, no matter how hard they try to prop it. and yet the pig is up 4% in 4 days as a direct result of their propping.
stage managed, centrally planned school of marxist physiocracy at work, making certain we are ruined beyond ruin. there is simply no other explanation.
have at it... even das capital held little mention of the socialist alternatives, but instead attacked the predatory nature of our system.
apparently, they don't give a damn what the market wants because they have figured out how to control the price. now, price has nothing to do with the market. it's insane. notice how the fed defends the derivatives markets. because no one needs them more than the fed. without the derivatives market, they would have to fork over 10 times more cash than they already do. and...their footprints would be bigger than they already are.
they are knee deep into the equities markets; they must be waist deep in the bond market. and both markets are priced to perfection.
considering gnp and its net income from abroad are heavily weighted into our phantom gdp figures, the efforts being made to maintain the machinery, structures and 'productive' financial endeavors will continue without measure.
factors that should produce 'stability' only produce waste.
the building has been burned to the ground and now we are simply detonating its foundation. waste is everywhere, especially within the fed's manic desperation... none of us find this useful or even purposeful for our own well being.
when the day comes when the foreign central banks stop throwing good money after bad, a nuclear bomb is going to go off in the financial markets, we just don't know when that's going to happen, but can look for signs.
basic economic models assume:
output: y = f(n,k,l)
that is not the issue, the real issue is incomes:
y = consumption (c) + government spending (g) + investment (i)
given consumption is credit based asset inflation thru alan's wealth effect... less consumption is forthcoming.
investment? who in their right mind 'invests' in distorted price signals with little if any intrinsic value?
that leaves... 'g'
and i see no signs of that letting up.
hyper inflation of asset base stocks is going to spillover into price in exchange. We produce very little, yet consume a disproportionate amount. I sincerely doubt out paper airplanes will replace hard work when it comes time to rebuild capital stocks.
if you somehow are managing to hold onto conventional monetary analysis implying 'deflation' is a pure monetary phenomena, you have a lot of explaining to do... as we are deflating with rapid expansion of both monetary facilities and credit.
the issues remain capital & cash flows. free flowing property... we do not have this, what we have is a constricted system designed to channel flows.
when an economic system can no longer perform due to dislocations, it matters little how much money you print.
that only serves to exacerbate the dislocation in terms of price, function, flow and form.
foundational economists having embraced all sorts of seemingly benign 'truths' and have much to learn as well, we all do.
adam smith's wealth of nations could not have imagined the wrath of globalization.
ricardo... ditto. competitive advantage for which... the lowest cost producer? someone wins, another loss. how is that mutually advantageous? it is not, the simple fact is the imf loans made to nations thought to be prime candidates for ca, found a concentration of industry in a few hands. this nation prospered under protectionist agenadas. pat buchanan wrote and excellent treatise on out nations history which contained a good deal of economic fact, very little of it was dependent on ca.
marx.... divides property into property owners, the rest are a proletariat herd at their beck and call... people embrace economic slavery for the greater good.
idiocy, putin has made that quite clear.
von mises believed in the competitive efficiencies of markets, but failed to recognize the rising tide of intervention until it was too late, instead following a value of money and independence of capital and property, by far the best, one step short of brilliant.
keynes, a meddler... pure and simple, he did not believe in markets, but intervention.
freidman, a kook... adjusting the monetary base for stability is utter devoid of any logic.
now we're faced with a fabain new age of purism for the greater good, dream of the blue turtles...
it is all run by computers programmed by fallible humans with one eye on the prize... utopia.
what folly,
excavating ground for greenhouses today, good weekend all, adding QEE and riding.
Post von John MacKenzie (Gold Eagle)
