Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Minenaktien-Berechnungen

    Die short seller von den Hedge Funds hauen dir kurzfristig die Rechnung wieder kaputt.
    Emotionen und Reaktionen sind nicht berechenbar, trotzdem liegt Saccard schon gut mit seiner Bewertung.
    Politische Probleme, Umweltschutz, Unfaelle, P/E Ratio, alles spielt da mit.
    Im Endeffekt macht der Markt was er will und macht seine eigene Bewertung.

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Dann gehts halt erstmal sideways weiter, so what !
    Die naechste Woche interessiert mich am meisten.
    Wichtig ist das Ruhe in den Markt kommt und sich die Preise/Aktien erstmal stabilisieren, das ist doch schon was... 580 plus ist doch ok.
    Der Rest geht dann automatisch,die Politik geht weiter und neue Nachrichten aendern schnell etwas.
    Die geopolitischen Spannungen nehmen zu und nicht ab.IMO


    Mal schaun :rolleyes:

  • Minenaktien in der Wirtschaftskrise

    So auf die schnelle habe ich was gefunden, kann sein das es so ablaueft.
    Also bei einen weltweiten Crash die EM Aktien nicht verkaufen, aussitzen, abwarten, oder put optionen kaufen ist die Antwort.
    Wenn die Regierung den Zugriff aufs Konto/Depot oder Handel der Aktien verbietet haben wir Pech gehabt. :(


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/silberman072406.html


    Gold Stocks


    There is no denying that Gold Stocks have sold off with the Stock Market even though the Price of Gold has been rising.


    The fact that Gold Stocks fell whilst Physical Gold rose does not surprise or worry me at all. It is quite common that during an advance Gold Stocks get ahead of Physical. This can result in Physical 'catching up' after gold stocks have topped out - and we see this divergent behavior.


    However, the correlation with the stock market is the Million Dollar Question. Yes, Gold Stocks are equities and yes, they will be influenced by the broader stock market. But fundamentally Gold Stocks are counter cyclical because the product they mine moves in an inverse relationship to paper assets.


    Once irrationality sets in and the stock market really starts to fall I would say, based on recent experience, Gold Stocks would initially fall alongside.


    However, at some point investors in Gold Stocks will focus on their business and not the fact that they are stocks. When will that happen? When the Fed starts to Panic and 'attempts' to restore confidence through the Printing Press.


    Keep your eye on the BIG Picture:


    Chart 1 - Gold Stocks (red) vs. S&P500 (blue) vs. Gold/HUI ratio (green)


    Rest assured, the stock market and Gold Stocks will ultimately detach and Gold Stocks will perform their counter cyclical duty.


    Chart 1 shows how Gold Stocks rallied whilst the stock market fell during late 2000 - 2002 (grey block).


    In fact, chart 1 shows Gold Stocks led Gold Bullion higher (green line HUI outperformed Physical Gold) during the Panic moments of the SM Crash.


    Will Gold Stocks violate Long Term Trend lines? How low will Gold Stocks go before detaching from the SM? The answers to these questions are unknowable at this time.


    So what do we do?


    When faced with a credible risk to your position it is prudent to purchase Put Option insurance.

  • Minenaktien in der Wirtschaftskrise

    Jeder moechte es einfach,schnell und bequem haben, aber so einfach ist es auch nicht.
    Wer sucht der findets auch heisst es so schoen. ;)
    Gehe auf die Spalte ""letzter Beitrag"" und klick auf den Pfeil, dann siehst du was aktuell ist und kannst antworten oder frragen.
    Unuebersichtlich wird es mit zu vielen threads.
    Ich habe ueber 360 Aktien, was meinst was los ist wenn ich fuer jede einen thread aufmache, dann flippt ihr aus. X(
    Also ein bischen buendeln bitte !
    Aufgeklaert sind schon viele hier, don't you worry.


    Aber lass mal gut sein, das regelt sich von selber.


    Pfirty


    XEX

  • Minenaktien in der Wirtschaftskrise

    Glaube nicht das du damit etwas unterbrichst wenn du es im ""wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter"" reinlegst.
    Bei Gold und Silber.. Info und Vermutungen gehts auch.
    Zu viele threads sind nicht gut wenn du mich fragst.
    Wirst schon sehen wie aktuell und wichtig das Thema sein wird und wie viele darauf antworten lieber Baron.


    Mfg


    XEX

  • Minenaktien in der Wirtschaftskrise

    Gute Fragen,benoetigt aber keinen eigenen thread IMO.
    Ich denke mal bei allgemeinen Panikverkauf trifft es erstmal auch die EM Aktien und haerter die Juniors dieses kurzfristig. Danach sollte der PoG steigen und dann die EM Aktien auf neue Hoehen jagen und noch mehr die Juniors. Man sollte da mal in der Vergangenheit nachschaun, heisst aber nicht das es so kommt wenn vorher, so wie jetzt die EM schon korregiert/manipuliert wurden.

    Bin gespannt was Saccard und die anderen dazu sagen. :rolleyes:


    Mfg


    Eldo


    Hast Recht, Wolken ziehen am Horizont auf...

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Annan warns of Iraq civil war


    2006-09-19



    UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned on Monday that urgent action is needed by the entire international community to drag Iraq back from the brink of all-out civil war.
    Speaking as Iraqi leaders defended their policies to potential aid donors at the UN general assembly, Annan joined their appeal for a quick and massive international effort to strengthen the embattled government in Baghdad and "bring Iraq back from the brink".


    "If current patterns of alienation and violence persist much longer, there is a grave danger that the Iraqi state will break down, possibly in the midst of full-scale civil war," Annan said.

  • Polyus Gold / PLZL, PGIL, PGILF (RU, LSS, OTC)

    Ich habe mir angeschaut wo es ueberhaupt die Polyus zum handeln gibt.
    Am pink sheet und in D, :(.. nirgendwo ein gutes volumen ist dann uninteressant. Ein russisches Rubel Konto oder handel in Moscow bestimmt nicht. Ich lege sie mal auf den Radar und warte auf Volumen oder besseres listing auf einer internationalen boerse wie London z.B.

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    ;)Genau, die hab ich beim Onkel Harry gesehen, einmal gekauft nie mehr nachgeladen, heute 70% im plus und sie hat alles mitgemacht.
    Ich wuenschte alle waeren so wie Viceroy, eigentlich wird wenig ramba- zamba um die gemacht, ganz eine stllle ist das in den medien.
    Da Saccard so gut rechnet habe ich gestern auch die Gammon wieder aufgestockt.
    Bei Minefinders, angeblich noch preiswerter laut Saccard habe soweit genug, irgendwie reizt sie mich nicht dort nachzuladen, weiss auch nicht warum.
    Da in letzter Zeit zu viel geredet wird das ECU ein Zockerstock ist und eigentlich ueberbewertet ist habe ich die haelfte verkauft und bin bei der plus - minus null. Vorher brachte sie mir 450% Gewinn, ich habe sie alle rechtzeitig verkauft und danach wieder gekauft.
    Fortuna ebenfalls halbiert ohne Verlust, vielleicht war es ein Fehler.
    Noch gutes Gefuehl bei EDR ASM ABI GGC BCM FR FSR MAG SBB MSV KRE EPZ im Silberlager z.B.
    Ich verkaufe lieber ein paar Junior Pferde und kaufe dann welche wie Gammon oder Silver Wheaton,.... der Nerven halber. :D
    Mal schaun wie es weiter geht...


    Have a nice day


    XEX

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Global: Commodities as an Asset Class


    Stephen S. Roach


    In a low-return world, high-yielding commodities have become the siren song of the asset-liability mismatch. Well supported by seemingly powerful fundamentals on both the demand (i.e., globalization) and the supply sides (i.e., capacity shortages) of the macro equation, investors have stampeded into commodity-related assets in recent years. Once a pure play as a physical asset, commodities have now increasingly taken on the trappings of financial assets. That leaves them just as prone to excesses as stocks, bonds, and currencies. This is one of those times.


    Previously, I argued that Chinese and US demand were both likely to surprise on the downside -- outcomes that would challenge the optimistic fundamentals still embedded in commodity markets (see my 15 September dispatch, "Whither Commodities?"). I also hinted that the asset play could well reinforce this development -- largely because commodities have now come of age as a legitimate asset class in world financial markets. This companion note develops the asset-driven adjustments that could well lie ahead in commodity markets. The sociological context is key to this dimension of the issue: Virtually every major institutional investor I visit around the world -- from pension funds and insurance companies to mutual fund complexes and hedge funds -- has a large and growing commodity department. The same is true of foreign exchange reserve managers and corporate treasury departments of multinational corporations. One major Wall Street firm is now run by a former commodity executive, and another has turned over management of its global bond division to the architect of its thriving commodity business.


    Like all such trends, the expansion of the commodity culture is rooted in performance. It's not just the physical commodities themselves -- most commodity-related assets in cash and futures markets have also delivered outstanding relative returns. For several years, the so-called commodity currencies of Australia and Canada have been on a tear, and big commodity producers like Russia and Brazil have led the recent charge in high-flying emerging markets. Within the global equity universe, the materials sector has been the number-one ranked performer over the past year -- up 14%, or double the 7% returns of second-ranked financials. And, of course, there is the growing profusion of commodity-related ETFs. Meanwhile, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) now collectively manage over $70 billion in assets -- more than three times the total three years ago -- and the IMF reports inflows of approximately $35 billion into commodity futures last year alone." (See the IMF's September 2006 Global Financial Stability Report).


    Significantly, the consultants are now urging institutional investors to implement a major increase in their asset allocation weightings to commodities. A recent Ibbotson Associates study recommends that commodity weightings in a multi-asset balanced portfolio could be increased, under conservative return and risk-appetite assumptions, to a high of nearly 30%. That would be more than three times current weightings and greater than seven times the estimated $2 trillion value of current annual commodity production (see T.M. Idzorek, "Strategic Asset Allocation and Commodities," March 2006, available on http://www.ibottson.com). The Ibbotson analysis praises commodities for their consistent outperformance and negative correlations with other major asset classes -- going so far as to praise commodities for actually providing the protection of "portfolio insurance." It concludes by stressing "&there is little risk that commodities will dramatically underperform the other asset classes on a risk-adjusted basis over any reasonably long time period." Laboring under the constant pressure of the asset-liability mismatch, yield-starved investors can hardly afford to ignore this enthusiastic advice. As a result, with multi-asset portfolios likely to have ever-greater representation from commodities, the financial-market dimensions of the commodity trade are likely to become increasingly important.


    This transformation from a physical to a financial asset alters the character of commodity investments. Among other things, it subjects the asset to the same cycles of fear and greed that have long been a part of financial market history. From tulips to dot-com and now probably US residential property as well, the boom all too often begets the bust. Yale Professor Robert Shiller puts it best, arguing that asset bubbles arise when perfectly plausible fundamental stories are exaggerated by powerful "amplification mechanisms" (see Shiller's, Irrational Exuberance, second edition, 2005). That appears to have been the case in commodities. In this instance, the amplification is largely an outgrowth of the China mania that is now sweeping the world -- the belief that commodity-intensive Chinese hyper-growth is here to stay. That's why I blew the whistle on this one: Not only do I believe that the Chinese authorities will make good on their efforts to cool off an over-heated economy, but I also suspect they will succeed in engineering a well-publicized shift toward more efficient usage of energy and other commodities (see my 2 June essay, "A Commodity-Lite China"). The potential for post-housing bubble adjustments of the American consumer could well be the icing on this cake -- not only lowering US commodity demand through reductions in residential construction activity but also by reducing end-market demand in China's biggest export market. The recent data flow hints that such adjustments are now just getting under way -- underscored by reports of a meaningful slowing of Chinese investment and industrial output growth in August and a continuing stream of bad news from the US housing market.


    Meanwhile, the performance of commodity-based financial assets is starting to fray around the edges. That's true of energy funds as well as those asset pools with more balanced portfolios of energy, metals, and other industrial materials. While most of these investment vehicles have outstanding 3- and 5-year performance records, the one-year return comparisons are now solidly in negative territory for many of the biggest commodity funds. And this is occurring at the same time that the MSCI All-Country World index has delivered a 14% return for global equities over the past year. Underperformance for a few months is hardly cause for concern, but for both relative- and absolute-return investors, negative comparisons over a 12-month period are raising more than the proverbial eyebrow. As usual, the "hot money" has been the first to head for the exits, but more patient investors may not be too far behind. Shiller-like amplification mechanisms could well compound the problem. Just as they led to near parabolic increases of many commodity prices in March and April, there could be cumulative selling pressure on the downside -- taking commodity prices down much more sharply than fundamentals might otherwise suggest.


    For my money, there is far too much talk about the globalization-led commodity super-cycle. It gives the false impression of a one-way market, where every dip is buying opportunity. Yet commodities as a financial asset are as bubble-prone as any other investment. As is always the case in every bubble I have lived through, denial is deepest when asset values go to excess. That's very much the case today. After three years of extraordinary outperformance, denial over the possibility of a sustained downside adjustment in commodity prices is very much in evidence -- underscoring the time-honored sociology of an asset class that has gone to excess. Meanwhile, China and US-housing-related fundamentals are going the other way -- setting up increasingly tender commodity markets for unpleasant downside surprises on the demand side of the global economy. The herding instincts of institutional investors could well magnify the price declines -- when, and if, they emerge. All this suggests there is still plenty of life left in the time-honored commodity cycle.


    Barton Biggs always used to chide me that "Dr. Copper" was his favorite economist -- possessing an uncanny knack to provide a real-time assessment of the state of the global economy. I suspect that the good doctor has now taken his or her finger off the pulse of the real economy and spends far more time looking at Bloomberg screens. Pity the poor patient -- to say nothing of the doctor!



    Your always worried about a bubble analyst, :D

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…/contemporarysolution.mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…ST/DORE/MP3/Historysm.mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…AND%20GOLD/Pay%20Me...mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/MP3/Hole.mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…E/MP3/InflationNation.mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TE…/DORE/MP3/GoldenEagle.mp3


    http://www.boogiewoogie.com/TEST/ARTIST/DORE/Disaster.mp3

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    http://gata.org/node/4388


    Iran knocks bank boycott, considers dumping dollars


    Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2006-09-17 16:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
    Iran Vows Legal Action
    on U.S. Move Against Bank Saderat


    From Agence France-Presse
    via Financial Express, Mumbai
    Sunday, September 17, 2006


    http://www.financialexpress-bd…9/17/2006&section_id=2...


    China sees no need for great FX reserves shift


    Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2006-09-17 17:04. Section: Daily Dispatches
    From Reuters
    Sunday, September 17, 2006


    http://za.today.reuters.com/ne…type=businessNews&stor...


    SINGAPORE -- China has no need to make a big change in the composition of its $954.5 billion stockpile of reserves, the country's foreign exchange regulator said in remarks published on Sunday.


    Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told the publication Emerging Markets that China had already shifted some of its foreign currency reserves out of the dollar, :D diversifying most recently into the South Korean won. :D (Gold) ?


    "Until now we haven't made a huge adjustment to our reserves composition because China's trade is largely in U.S. dollars," Hu was quoted as saying.


    The dollar as a consequence constitutes a large chunk of the currency basket against which China manages the yuan, "so there's no need to shift greatly from this", she added. ;(


    Emerging Markets is being published in conjunction with the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The paper did not say when it interviewed Hu.


    She said diversification was a long-standing portfolio management practice for China that predated the scrapping of the yuan's decade-old dollar peg in July 2005 and switch to a managed float.


    "Over the past few years, we have already diversified our reserves away from exclusively U.S. dollar to other currencies -- euro, yen and we have also moved now to the Korean won -- so that's already evidence of diversification," she was quoted as saying.


    China does not disclose the breakdown of its reserves, the largest stash in the world.
    Bankers assume that at least two-thirds of the reserves is invested in dollar assets.


    * * * :rolleyes: :rolleyes:540 tonnen Gold ist 1% der Forex wenn ich mich nicht verrechnet habe....
    Eigentlich koennte die noch 2000 tonnen brauchen dann haben sie 5%..offiziell ! :D