Beiträge von Eldorado

Astro for a change,vielleicht nur ein Geruecht ?

On Tuesday, May 17, the traditionally very positive and harmonious trine of Venus-Jupiter takes place. One would think this would have a buoyant effect upon the stock markets of the world that day, or the day before. But the next day, May 18, Venus will square Uranus, which could reverse the positive impact very quickly. However, both of these signatures are relatively weak historically in comparison to the Mars-Uranus conjunction of May 15 in regards to market reversals. They are also relatively weak in comparison to the Neptune retrograde event, which takes place on May 19. This later event has a huge 86% historical correlation to primary or greater cycles in U.S. equities within 10 trading days. The fact that the two Venus signatures occur between these two Level signatures may mean we see a sharp reversal in between May 15-19, making it appear the Venus signatures were perhaps more important than they usually are. In any event, traders should prepare for a fascinating week, and one that might coincide with a sharp price reversal in many markets, such as crude oil, precious metals, and even stocks.

DEEP IMPACT....

Hands off China's Monetary Policy

By Tim Wood
16 May 2005 at 05:47 PM EDT

NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- China in 2005 sounds a whole lot like Japan a decade earlier except the fracas this time is over monetary rather than trade policy. The value of the Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi, has become critical to commodity fundamentals as well as equity valuations for companies targeted by China for acquisition.

China’s Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, has made it clear that the value of the renminbi will be dictated by domestic requirements, not foreign pressure. However, Wen also reaffirmed the commitment to liberalizing the foreign exchange regime in time.

Given Wen’s statement, Mitsui Global Precious Metals made a timely call against prospects for revaluation. Analyst Andy Smith noted last Friday that there was no reason to change the peg which has worked well for China from any perspective.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=9775

Posted to the web on: 17 May 2005
Kebble may shed diamond mine
John Fraser

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Resources Editor

THE Kebbles’ JCI may sell its entire stake in the Letseng diamond mine in Lesotho, leaving it to focus on gold.

The move reflects the belief of JCI boss Brett Kebble that gold may soon be uncoupled from the dollar, and thereafter soar in value.

Kebble has already said the company that houses the stakes in Letseng of JCI and its empowerment partner, Matodzi Resources, is to be listed in Johannesburg and London, while the Lesotho government will retain its 24% stake.

He said at the weekend that JCI could sell its entire 38% stake, which, with the repayment of loans from Matodzi, could bring in about R1bn.

This would be used to reduce JCI’s gearing, and also to follow its interests in a R816m Western Areas rights offer that was announced last week.

Western Areas needs the cash to finance the capital expenditure required to increase production at its South Deep joint venture with Placer dome of Canada.

Kebble said the rights offer would not be underwritten, as 85% of shareholders, including JCI, had said they would follow their rights.

Instead of paying an underwriting fee, there would be a discount of 0,5% to those following their rights.

The proceeds of the rights offer would be used by Western Areas to fund its share of the balance of expansion costs at the South Deep Twin Shafts complex. This investment will double production to about 800000oz of gold a year, with cash costs falling to R57000/kg.

The funds raised through the rights offer would also be used to pay back the R174m that Western Areas had borrowed from JCI.

“JCI is disposing of its interests in diamonds and putting it into the South Deep project,” said Kebble.

He said relations with Placer Dome were better than they had been since the late 1990s and the mine has “one cracker of an ore body”.

Kebble did not say whether JCI might retain a residual stake in Letseng “but we do have buyers for the whole thing”.

“We have a very clear plan to unlock the value in the group, and that starts with the Letseng transaction,” he said.

“We are then able to capitalise Western Areas, and the project will roar ahead.

“We had the chance to reduce JCI’s stake (38,2%) in Western Areas or to hang on to diamonds, and my position on gold has changed and improved,” Kebble said.

In its results for the March quarter last week, Western Areas reported a sharp fall in gold produced to 1402kg, from 1891kg in the December quarter.

Cash costs shot up to R87278/kg and the gold price achieved fell to R58193/kg. The loss for the period was R159,9m, down from a profit of R160,4m in the December quarter.

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) Central Committee has nominated gold miner Harmony Gold and global resources BHP Billiton's coal, chrome and manganese mining operations in for membership of the "worst employer club", NUM said in a statement today.

The NUM also awarded gold miner DRDGOLD an "honorary life" membership of the "worst employer club", after awarding the gold miner worst employer status previously.

The nominations will be forwarded to the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu), to which the NUM is affiliated.

Ulfur

Danke fuer deinen Report den ich nicht kannte.
Zum Schluss heisst es man sollte mit wenig Kapital Apollo treu bleiben.

Hoert sich ja gut an, so kurz vor der Pleite.

Gruss

Eldo

@ Ulfur

In einen persoenlichen email an Ferdie Dippenaar habe ich das Thema Offshore Accounts angeschnitten und ebenfalls wie das Management zu Tiefpreisen sich mit Aktien die Taschen gefuellt haben.

Ich habe die Antwort nicht aufgehoben aber sie war folgend:

Die Directoren von Harmony sind im Vergleich zu anderen im Goldminenbereich unterbezahlt und Bernd Swanepoel's Jaehrliches Einkommen ist nur 6 Millionen Rand.

Es ist eine Luege und Vendetta der Konkurenz die Directoren der Firma haetten Offshore Accounts,weder er noch Swanepoel haben welche. Fuer was braucht man einen Offshore Account wenn nur 5000 GBP darauf liegen. Wenn aber nun die Scorpions aktiv werden dann ist mehr an der Sache dran, die bekamen den Ermittlungsbefehl vom Staatsanwalt und Finanzamt.(SARS). Falls es bewiesen wird sollte sich Swanepeol von Harmony gefaellig verabschieden und dafuer bestraft werden, meiner Meinung.

Gruss

Eldorado

Ja, viele gute Aktien hier... nicht schlecht Herr Specht,da sind immer ein paar Nieten dabei im Vergleich. :D...

Buy low, sell high, wie wahr, wie wahr.

@ PL

Good to hear from the Wolf and Lemming Butcher.

Where is the money or show me the money !...

Cheers

Eldo

THE FINAL FLUSH X(OUT.....

Die einzigen die sich halten sind die Suedaffen Minen, ich glaube der Boden ist nun erreicht ... Gold ueber 418 ist gut, aber der HUI weiter am fallen ist bedenklich. .
.... Is it a bluff or is it real ???

..........

afm

I think the dollar strenghts came also because they had cool numbers out of the US and also thought the Chinese will follow the the command of the yankees,...(see Hainan US Spy Plane), :D.. the chinese will never surrrender and lose their face to the Americans and they just do business with them til they will hit them badly and give them what they deserve. (Fiat Dollars)

As soon as they can they will screw them with Fiat Dollars and Bonds for tangibles . :D....

Anyway,right now its a disaster for Goldbugs or a huge buying, or entry ,into gold chance of the century,.. I would love to have ,.....still don't forget .......

do not buy and hope just because many think that gold can only go higher. Be defensive and you will not have to suffer
two crashes within a decade which is highly likely at this point. Some may argue that gold stocks are in a correction, not a crash. Call it whatever you want, the fact remains that $HUI has now lost 35%, that is the same as if the Dow was at 6500; headlines all over the world would be screaming crash, 8o........
unfortunately, gold stock investors are suffering in silence.

Petersilie oder Petzis hatten kurzfristig recht,aber nur kurzfristig ..IMHO !

Tough times we are going through, Grrrr !!!

Hang in or Quit, the battle is still on for another few days.

Good luck, ... what ever , its a major attack of the dark side (PPT) against Gold which will end soon, D day is the 19th for me,. "the final big battle.
USD/Index against Gold"",418>427 USD.. > 170 HUI... IMHO

Or 418> 410 ?? , we'll see !!.

Parsley said 410, I doubt it.

If it happens, I'm out of here for good.

Salute, keep the faith !!!

....The USD/Index is running out of steam in my opinion.

The sun will shine again for gold,sooner or later, that's what I believe in.

You got to believe in something, or you better die or surrender, Amigos.

Vivir !

Eldorado

You may think I'm nuts, ?(....... I give a damn, I'm me, I'm free !

There has been no real strong selling or panic, just a complete dearth of buying power. The latter is usually a contrariarian indicator...buy when no one else wants to. Timing is the big wild-card here. A break-down of bullion can lead to real selling. If the buyers don't step in then things have the "potential" to get ugly very quickly.

Things are oversold...but not that oversold. :))

It is important to remind oneself that in the currency market, even small "bounces" can be multi-month, indeed multi-year affairs.

Trading thoughts.

Let me start with a definition. To me an investor is a speculator who deeply regrets not having used stops and is now holding on to large paper losses.

The most bullish thing that can happen is for bullion to have a strong snap-back rally back over 427 USD. I think that would be a good entry, with a point slightly above the trend-line becoming your stop. (I think if it breaks the trend-line it is becasue gold is taking a swan dive)

In other words I have changed my mind from last week. My stops would not be "reasonable"...they would be anal.

I would buy only on some kind of resistance metric being taken out on the hope you are catching a break-out.

A bullion move down to support at 415 which results in a snap-back is much tougher to call. It could be a true inflection point, or we could simply be bouncing back to the trend-line to confirm that what once was support is now resistance.

The prior and continuing underperformance of equities puts a pall on the whole sector. For myself I still have zero exposure to golds. My overall thoughts are to stand aside until I see bullion at a nice discount to its 200 dma (very oversold) or until I seem some resistance barriers being taken out.

Bottom picking without the benifits of market depth information is really shooting in the dark.

Good trading, ......GUYS

Here is Alan who lost his glasses.....

.....http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-…?Action=Story&Command=621

OOPS

http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-…?Action=Story&Command=621

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, May 15 (Reuters) - The Rolling Stones' smash hit "(I can't get no) Satisfaction" may be on the lips of many Bay Street gold stock investors and not only because the legendary rockers announced this past week that they'll play in Toronto in September.
Unlike the seemingly ageless and fit-looking rock stars, gold shares listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange appear decidedly haggard, having lost on average 18 percent of their value so far this year.

And, if some analysts are right, the bleeding isn't over.

Gold really needs to break to a new high to convince people that the rally is still alive -- that there's going to be enough move at the (miners') revenue line to overcome all the problems we know are taking place at the cost line," said Victor Flores, gold analyst at HSBC Securities in New York.
But if his industry colleagues at Merrill Lynch are right, the price could get worse before it gets better.

According to the investment bank, the gold price and gold equities have fallen in the late spring to mid-summer almost every year since 1989 because of seasonal factors, including the end of the jewelry-gobbling wedding season in India and as European fabricators let gold stocks run down.

"Bullion could decline to $410 an ounce by July," Merrill and others cautioned in a report last week. But it sees the dip as short-lived and is still targeting a $440 average in 2005.
The biggest driver of bullion's run-up in the current cycle is weakness in the U.S. dollar, as a softer dollar makes the precious metal cheaper to buy in other currencies.

But the greenback hasn't fallen as much as many expected and even Murenbeeld, well known in the gold industry for his gold price forecasts and a self-proclaimed "dollar bear", has lowered his predictions.

Bullion was stuck near three-month lows of $419 an ounce on Friday, weighed down by a rise in the greenback after surprisingly strong U.S. economic data. The Toronto Stock Exchange gold index fell 8 percent over the past week, helping to depress the overall market 2.5 percent to 9,278.45.

Some industry players have blamed gold share weakness on the launch of new bullion investment products, called exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that give investors an avenue other than stocks for getting exposure to the gold price.

But others like HSBC's Flores said ETFs only trade a slim one to two million contracts a day. "That is not enough volume to account for the death and destruction that we have seen in the gold equities," Flores said.

For the next few months, investors may find it more lucrative trading in Rolling Stones tickets than gold shares.

@ valueman
@ Ulfur

Stichtag sollte der sein....

http://www.mweb.co.za/events/b…ctijf_latestclips~32910~2

China presents two stories at once. In the long run,
the dragon's rise seems inexorable. It's hard to imagine anything that could thwart it. In the short run, however,
China must deal with dangerous internal weakness, namely
a rotten banking system, poor internal controls and a
dangerous torrent of "hot money" - speculative capital
in pursuit of aggressive returns - that threatens to boil
over the economy and unleash massive instability down
the road when it withdraws, similar to the Asian currency
crisis of the late '90s."

Ich bin mir sicher ihr wisst schon welcher nun der Beste im Fernen Osten ist......

Mal abschalten....it's time !

afm...

I got to run now and get more out of the.. ""picture"".

Gruss

Eldorado

INSTERBURG

Freut mich das Dir die Drooys gefallen.
Du bedankts dich immer fuer jede.
Gogh oder jemand anders soll mal hier weiter machen weil ich nun in Urlaub will. (see Maya)
Hatte viel Spass aber nun ist es Ist hoechste Zeit,da wartet noch andere Arbeit auf mich, Amigos ;).
Don't worry, be happy, die CD ist nun zu Ende, da waren gute songs drauf......

Nah Neh Nah
Far Gone Now
Sunny Days
Sally
Something's Got A Hold On Me
I Don't Want To Know
What's A Woman?
Night Owls
Pack Your Memories
With You
Travelling Light
One silver dollar
Remember...

Jeder weiss hier ueber den Fiat Dollar & PPT bescheid, denke ich mal.
Mit vorsicht zu geniessen .......

afm

Ganz kurz, klar ist die Zukunft in Asien wo sonst ???
Die Chinesen sind die naechste Weltmacht und die USA ist irgendwann auf den zweiten Platz...... (2015 - ???)
Mit Mac Donalds kommst nicht weit.

XEX

afm

Ob nun der Real Estate Deal nun so wichtig ist das Gold steigt glaube ich nicht, aber man kann sich oft taeuschen. Gnight,
I watch a video with my kids and friend now... I call it a day !

And watch your assets later !