Nick Goodwin, gold analyst at T-Sec
By: Alec Hogg
Posted: '26-APR-05 10:22' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
MINEWEB: Let’s bring Nick Goodwin from T-Sec, our gold guru, in now. Nick, we had quarterly results to the end of March from Harmony. One doesn’t know what to believe from Harmony nowadays. I say this with some circumspection, because those numbers, pshew, they’re now doing a Nedcor trick almost. It's not only the full results. David, you’re nodding your head here. They now talk about quality ounces, growth projects, leveraged ounces. My word, the last time we saw this kind of fudging of the numbers was with Nedcor. Do you agree, Nick?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, basically yes. You just have to decipher it all. They grouped the various mines together, and you have to go back and obviously group the mines going back a year or so.
MINEWEB: But I thought the whole point of putting all the mines together was that you would stabilise all these different impacts. Otherwise why not just list the operations separately?
NICK GOODWIN: Yes, I prefer that, to actually see each operation listed so we can see what’s actually happening there, because you’ve now got mines in the Free State listed with mines in Evander, listed with mines on the West Rand, and so on. And it makes it quite complicated. But you can unravel all this if you just look at the cash flow situation, and unfortunately the cash flow situation is not very good in this quarter. Last quarter they had a net cash outflow of R274m, and this quarter it's R533m.
MINEWEB: R533m in cash? That’s half a billion rand in three months!
NICK GOODWIN: Yes that’s correct.
MINEWEB: Where are they going to get the cash to replace it with?
NICK GOODWIN: Well, look, they sold their interest in ARM which will give R1.2bn So that will see them right for a while. They are desperately trying to get their costs down, so they will be about the R75,000/kg area. They say they’ll do it later this year. It's currently at R86,000/kg, which is above the gold price, in fact, So this quarter unfortunately at the gold profit level they actually had a negative margin there.
MINEWEB: So that’s why they’re trying to confuse us un-specialists. Clearly you can decipher it all Nick, but David, it was what, Nedbank?
DAVID SHAPIRO: Yes, we’ve been talking about trend analysis, and I think if you want to interpret what happened there four years ago, or five years ago, the share was at R40. In 2001 it went up to about I think R190 or R185 a little later. It's now down at R40. So if you draw the chart in your mind, I think you can get a very good idea of what this all means.
MINEWEB: And thank the Pope that you didn’t buy the shares at R105. And also, you’ve got to hand it to Mzi Khumalo – he might have got the shares in a strange way, but he certainly knew when to sell, didn’t he?
DAVID SHAPIRO: Yes.
MINEWEB: Put R1bn in his back pocket. I guess now, looking back, if Mzi had held on to the share he wouldn’t be worth too much money. I notice, Nick, though, and this was very surprising, going through the unit trust quarterlies, neither of the South African gold funds – Old Mutual or Stanlib funds – neither of them actually own any Harmony shares. Old Mutual’s got AngloGold. Even Durban Deep’s in there, Gold Fields and Western Areas. Stanlib’s got Aflease, AngloGold and Gold Fields. But no Harmony.
NICK GOODWIN: Well, look, it obviously was the right thing to have done over the last few quarters. In fact, look I know they’re specialised funds, but nobody should have had any gold shares – not for the last two years. So even the Gold Fields Harmony Bid shouldn’t have been a problem for you, because you shouldn’t have had the stock in any case. And I think that’s still the situation. I don’t know if you recall at one of your shows a few months ago I was calling Harmony down to R40, which it hit today. And I think the gold index went through some very important levels today. It's been struggling to get through on the downside of the sort of 1450 area for about seven or eight months, and today it broke through there convincingly. And now we’re going to see it slide – it's basically going to slump now, very much a type of pattern that you get near the end of a bear market. So we could see the index slumping to the 1200 area now, and then it will have a bit of a pickup to 1300 and eventually go down to 1000, which is what I’ve been speaking about for a long time. And then there’ll be some really very good bargains there, and we can see a share like Harmony being in the sort of R30 to R35 area, a share like Gold Fields sort of R40, R45, AngloGold sort of R140 and so on. Durban Deep – I think we’ve seen the worst there, and I think R4, R4.50 for Durban Deep, believe it or not, is actually a buy. But we now have to wait for the final leg of the bear market to complete itself, and then there will be some amazing bargains – like we saw in 1997, which was the pattern of the previous bear market.
MINEWEB: Well, the Harmony share price today dropped 8% to close at R40 on the dot in the post-close auction. The last trade before that was R41.36, then it traded at R40, and then it closed at R40, exactly as Nick Goodwin had to say. He’s been spot on so far – I’m sure that you should take his advice right now.