Wenn ihr mich fragt dann warted erst ab wenn der Rand eindeutlich faellt,dann wuerde ich nachlegen aber erst ueber ca. 6.50 Rand /Dollar.
Vorher ist es totes capital und geht nirgendwo hin vielleicht sideways ?
XEX
Beiträge von Eldorado
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Ich denke mir Merowinger hat recht und es ist sehr geheim was sich da abspielt. Schweiz, eines der geschuetzten Freimaurer Schutzzone neben Denmark. In der Schweiz gibt es um Kloten viele geheime Tunnel in den Bergen die sogar atomar geschuetzt sind wo sich vieles abspielt.
Der Vatikan verbirgt so viele Schaetze die gehalten und versteckt werden.Eigentlich ist es ein Konzern anstatt Kirche.
Die Wurzel von allen Uebel ist Religion !!!
Gruss
XEX
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Hast schon recht aber warum soll ich etwas reinlegen woran ich nicht glaube ? Das ueberlasse ich anderen die long in fiat sind.
Gruss
XEX
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Where does that all leave the investors ?
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There it sits, reflecting the natural or artificial light and perhaps the glow of your satisfaction and reassurance.
You are a gold or silver investor and you are contemplating this little mound of metal in the comfort of your living room or perhaps some bank deposit facility. Either way, it's your metal and you intend to profit from it in the years to come. When you look at it, you see more than your face. You see multiplied profits, wealth preservation, crisis kudos and true money.
You congratulate yourself on getting in on the bull market early. You tell yourself that anyone getting in early will likely never make a loss in his or her lifetime. That is a good assumption to be working on.
Getting into metals when everyone was getting out is a tried and trusted investment technique. It worked for equities in the late seventies and it has worked for gold since the late nineties. The problem before our hypothetical investor is when to get out.
Perhaps one could apply the reverse technique? Get out when everyone is getting in. That sounds easy, but first you must recognise and respond to a few things. The first is your greed, the second is other investors' greed and the third greed is why I write today.
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Momentan ist der zyklus ganz schlecht bei RSA GM's
Da schau ich mir lieber diese kurven an als die von HMY z.B. -
Gold & Oil
By Eric Hommelberg
April 25, 2005Gold & Oil is chapter VIII of the Gold Drivers Report. It discusses the historical Gold/Oil ratio which suggest a price of Gold exceeding $800 nowadays and shines a light a light on previous oil shocks and their consequences. This is important since the era of cheap Oil will only be found in History books from now on. Sure, Alan Greenspan comes to the rescue every now and then to assure us that high Oil prices are just temporary, but unfortunately his statements contradict those of many industry experts such as Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes who all claim that we're approaching PEAK-OIL at an alarmingly high speed. It could be very well the case that PEAK-OIL is here right now but unfortunately we've to wait a few years in order to confirm. This chapter discusses PEAK-OIL and why it is about to bring a nasty Oil shock in the coming years..Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France
April 21, 2005A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.
Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd).
"If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said. END.
You would probably wonder that if this situation is so dire indeed why politicians and or news directors don't seem to bother.
Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes says:
"My own feeling is that editors and news directors aren't interested in another Chicken Little story. No politician was going to run on a platform promising blood sweat and tears." END.
But hey, still there're brave congress man who aren't afraid to pick up the issue and to raise serious questions. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, Chairman of the Projection Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee, gave an hour long presentation on Peak Oil to the US Congress on Monday March 14:
More.....
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Harmony deep in the red
Apr 25 2005 09:36:08:733AM
By: Justin Brown
Johannesburg - World number six gold miner Harmony Gold on Monday reported a headline loss of 107c for its March 2005 quarter compared with a loss of 88c in the December 2004 quarter.
An I-Net Bridge survey of seven analysts expected the miner to report a March quarter headline loss per share of 106c.Forecasts ranged from a 76c loss to a 130c loss.
The group also reported a basic loss per share for the March 2005 quarter of 432c from 80c in the December 2004 quarter.
Gold production for the quarter declined 14% to 21 126kg from 24 604kg in the December quarter.
Harmony also announced a R1.513bn impairment of fixed assets in South Africa, which resulted in the group reporting a net loss R1.697bn from a R277m loss in the December quarter.
The group's March quarter gold price received was R83 273/kg from R84 031/kg in the December quarter.
Harmony's cash costs rose dramatically in the March quarter to R85 863/kg from R77 415/kg in the December quarter.
The group attributed the sharp increase in operating costs to a number of operational disruptions.
The company reported a cash operating loss of R54.7m from a cash operating profit of R163m in the December 2004 quarter.
The group's cash operating profit margin was a negative 3% for the March quarter from a positive 8% in the December quarter.
"The normal festive season and public holiday disruptions associated with the March quarter were compounded by several period specific events including a fire at Bambanani, a strike at the Free State operations, a 1% decrease in the rand gold price received and loss of Sunday work permission in the Free State," said Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel in a statement.
The group ended the March 2005 quarter with a negative R233m, compared with a positive cash balance of R2.337bn at the end of the March 2004 quarter.
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Harmony keeps on falling, now at 5.34 Euro !
Goldfields at 8.05 Euro !Where does it end ?
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Die lage ist nicht einfach einzuschaetzen,fuer mich ist GFI die sichere Anlage da ich das Vertrauen in den depperten Swanepoel verloren habe.
Er hat mir viel Geld gekostest mit verspielten Optionsscheinen. Ich moechte da nichts mehr nachwerfen in dieses Fass ohne Boden. Minus 46% reicht um eigentlich den Schrott zu verkaufen,da kann man lange warten um da wieder raus zu kommen.Mit dem Rand, das dauert auch noch einige zeit so wie ich es sehe. Harmony und DRD sind ein Randpoker und Harmony kostet es 445 Dollar um eine Unze rauszuholen, da gibt es andere zu kaufen !
Was mir auch gefaellt ist das GFI doch mehr foreign assets hat was in diesen Zeitpunkt des starken Rand natuerlich gut tut. Sicher ist Harmony jetzt ein bargain mit 26% unter dem NAV, trotzdem fuer mich gehoert Swanepoel gefeuert
Gruss, have a nice day
XEX
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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's Harmony Gold (HARJ.J:
Quote, Profile, Research) posted a third quarter headline loss per share of 107 cents on Monday, slightly worse than market expectations.
Harmony was expected to deepen its headline loss per share to 99 cents for the three months to end March from 88 cents in the previous quarter, according to an average forecast of six analysts polled by Reuters.The forecasts for the headline loss per share, which strips out capital, non-trading and extraordinary items, were in a range of 76 to 123 cents. Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd is the world's sixth biggest gold producer.
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http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=66245
We are not making money fast enough to cover Harmony's losses," he said. "Even if they increased the offer, the Gold Fields' shareholder would just end up with a larger slice of the world's largest loss-making gold company." South Africa's mining firms have been hit by a buoyant rand that has inflated costs and eroded export earnings, despite gold prices reaching their highest in 16 years.
Gold Fields' chief said they were still making money thanks to a strategy put in place in 2003, as well as diversifying the production base into Ghana and Australia.
"We changed from our so-called 'Walmart' strategy (high volume at low margins) and exchanged it for what we call the 'Saks 5th Avenue' (better quality, better margins," he said.
The miner hopes to continue to explore new opportunities in other countries using quality, local partners."
I said at the time when Norilsk came on board and I will repeat it: I see some very exciting opportunities of cooperating with them." "Russia is geologically blessed with good gold deposits, Norilsk understands how to work there, I would certainly hope that going forward we can cooperate." Cockerill did not think Norilsk's recent announcement it will spin off its gold activities into a separate listed company would have any adverse impact on its relationship, which he admitted had been "strained" initially by its support for Harmony in the hostile bid.
"The spin off of their gold assets is entirely consistent with what they've been telling us for some time and is an emminently sensible approach," he said.
"It doesn't change one iota what we may or may not be doing with Norilsk down the road."
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Harmony strike threatened
Monday April 25, 2005 07:35 - (SA)
By Bongolethu Futuse
By Tuesday, 4,914 workers employed by gold miner Harmony Gold in the Free State will be out of work, company spokesman Brenton Saunders says, provoking a national strike warning from the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) if the layoffs continue.
"We cannot delay the process any longer," Saunders said. The retrenchments come after 8,000 more Harmony workers were laid off in 2004.
About 850 workers have been served with retrenchment notices. There are thousands of miners who have refused to accept the notices, waiting to see what the NUM can do for them, but Saunders said that on Tuesday these workers would no longer be employed by Harmony.
Harmony has said that wages make up half its expenses, and to return its Free State mines to profitability it has to cut jobs and shut some shafts. The NUM has been in talks with Harmony's management to halt the job losses and is considering court action to force the company to retain the miners. "This is not a workers' issue. It is a managerial issue. They are making workers scapegoats," NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana said.
NUM Free State chairman Tanki Malefane said the union could approach courts early next week if talks with Harmony over the next few days failed.
"We thought that this was a positive approach to enable engagement. But if they respond negatively, we will apply to courts on Monday or Tuesday."
If the process failed, the only option left open for the NUM would be to go on a "national strike", Lekorotsoana said.
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Posted to the web on: 25 April 2005
Kebble close to deciding on DRDGOLD
John FraserMINING veteran Roger Kebble is expected to announce this week whether he will bid for all or part of the two DRDGOLD mines that were placed in provisional liquidation last month, threatening 6500 jobs.
Kebble said at the weekend that he was completing due diligence exercises on the DRDGOLD mines, which at one time he operated, and was hoping to be ready this week with a decision on whether or not to make a bid.
He said there was “always potential” to reopen the mines, which were closed due to pressures from the strong rand. The final straw came with damage caused by earth tremors at the beginning of last month.
Kebble said the issue of who would pay for pumping costs, believed to be about R85m a year, at the two mines had to be resolved.
If he does take over the mines, which are near Klerksdorp, Kebble would make an offer through Simmer & Jack, a listed company of which he is chairman. He has said in the past he would also be keen to bid for DRDGOLD’s other South African assets.
However, DRDGOLD CE Mark Wellesley-Wood said last week that restructuring of the other local operations had been completed and the company intended to retain operations in SA.
The liquidators of the two mines have invited offers for the purchase of the mine’s assets as a going concern.
Gavin Klein of Westrust, which is one of three liquidators, said the liquidators “are very keen to engage with any interested party”.
He said that one company other than Simmer & Jack was engaged in due diligence. He would not name the company.
Harmony CE Bernard Swanepoel said recently that he had decided to take a look at the liquidated mines, following an approach from the unions.
“The main aim is to save as many jobs as possible and to renew production as soon as possible,” said Klein.
He said the liquidators would want to see whether any potential purchaser would be interested in taking over the mines as a going concern or whether they would just want to cherry-pick assets.
He said the liquidators had ensured that all essential services such as the hospital, the feeding of workers, fire and security, and pumping were continuing.
Trade union Solidarity said on Friday that it had held a meeting with workers in Stilfontein on the liquidation of DRDGOLD mines.
“The biggest problem is the fact that workers’ medical aid has lapsed,” the union said.
Solidarity also alleged that DRDGOLD owed its 268 members at the mine approximately R21m in severance packages.
Solidarity spokesman Dirk Hermann said the union wanted to exhaust all alternatives before the final liquidation “in an attempt to prevent the liquidation and keep the mine going so that the workers may keep their jobs”.
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Others are already convinced that safety is in hard assets such as property. Well, while South Africa stays in a decreasing interest rate environment, as I believe it is, the property bulls should be fine. As long as they are choosy what they buy, what they pay relative to rentals achievable -- and save up for when tough times come again. Don't take on too much debt - ready for the day when tenants don't pay regularly and interest rates or municipal rates and taxes again rocket and everyone is a seller.
The property bull in South Africa is making the JSE Property Loan Stock sector even take on some "defensive" sector attributes, like healthcare. A place to invest when worry or fear levels for other sectors rise. There are not many places the JSE investor can go for safety though.
The main risk is probably from local factors, such as politicians doing and saying things to discourage foreign investment, just the way the good old Nats did. I didn't like hearing about government wanting to regulate judges even more. The rest of the world and thinking South Africans know that every social and economic disaster in history, started with the government of the day interfering with the Rule of Law. This aspect is being watched closely.
Nor should Mr. Mbeki be telling "The Economist" (4th April) his government intends to accelerate the transfer of wealth from white to black. What happened to the ideal of a non-racist, democratic, free economy?
Back to safe havens. RSA Gilts - or Treasury bonds as they are called in some countries, could still be at attractive buying levels on a two-year view. Could it be that Mr. Bush and team have to again start cutting rates in the US this year to lessen recession impact? The RSA 157 13.5% 2015 Gilt and the US 30 Year Long Bond yield trend profiles say so. The Rand's resilience after a surprise rate cut says so. The weak US$ and Wall Street says so.
If the US even breathes it is putting its rate hike bias on hold, SA gilt yields with their still attractive return differentials, become even more attractive. And even though South Africans are happily consuming and buying from outside on credit, interest rate hikes on technical evidence may still be a year or two off if the resources boom continues as expected.
As nervousness in global markets increases, I guess the US$ will be the earliest indicator for breather or dump on world markets next.23 April 2005
Best regards
Victor Hugo -
Technically Speaking with Burak
GOLD
At the beginning of the week it looked like we were going to have a real rally but by the end of the week it appears to have stalled. Again, my concern continues to be the lack of increased volume on upside moves. Oh yes, there is a slight increase but this can be attributed to just normal investor reaction. They are conditioned to buy on up moves and sit on the sidelines during down moves. The volume activity I am looking for on up moves would be in excess to this normal increase and that has not yet arrived.
On the long term I have no reason to change my prognosis from that of last week. I remain bullish on the long term. As for the intermediate term, that is starting to get more difficult. Last week things were bearish, this week improvement has entered the picture. We have gold just above its intermediate term moving average line and the line is starting to turn up. Price momentum is just above its neutral line for a weak but positive reading. Volume is still the problem although the volume indicator is positive. The intermediate term point and figure chart is the final bug-a-boo. Its last sign has been a bear signal and would need a move to the $450 level to reverse. Until such time as gold takes a real tumble or reaches that $450 price I think I will play it safe and revert to a neutral stand.
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Net asset value per share March 2005 R 57.20
Shareprice today R 42.50Discount to Net Assets 25. 6 %
Where else do you find such a discount ???
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How I Tell It
April 24, 2005
In my talks to skeptical lay investors I’ve distilled my points regarding the gold price manipulation as follows (it also helps me to understand the issues):
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
People are rightfully skeptical of conspiracy theories as they can never be proved or disproved. For example, if the CIA was behind President Kennedy’s murder (something I don’t believe is true) we would never have incontrovertible evidence of it. No Director of CIA would admit to it and no official documents would ever surface linking the Agency to the assassination.
Gold is different. If the Feds are secretly selling off the gold reserves to keep the price down, eventually the vaults will be empty and the price of gold will soar. Then the truth will come out. So if this conspiracy theory is true, it is inevitable that it will one day be exposed.
TWO SETS OF BOOKS
At bottom the gold conspiracy, if it is true, is a simple case of fraud. Every month the Treasury Dept. issues an report listing the gold reserves (sorry I don’t have the links immediately at hand: having trouble with Microsoft and lost all my bookmarked URL’s). And each report shows about 262 million ounces on hand.
Every year auditors from Office of Inspector General, Secretary of the Treasury do an audit of the gold reserves. They count all the bars and assay a few to check the purity. (James Turk got a letter from a Treasury official that described the great work civil servants put into their audit). Treasury audit reports each year show about 262 million ounces of gold.
If the government is secretly selling off the gold reserves it means all those inventory and audit reports are fraudulent. The government is keeping two sets of books. The first one has the real numbers and the second set of books, for public consumption, is nothing but lies.
Reducing the argument to this level is something everyone can understand.
EFFECT ON PUBLIC
If the Feds and their Wall Street allies are secretly selling gold to keep the markets up it means the public will be hurt when it ends. Virtually all sales pitches for the stock market now are a version of the old Dollar Cost Averaging rule. Invest in a broad basket of common stocks on a regular basis and over time you will be able to put your kids through college before enjoying a comfortable retirement on the profits.
By driving down the price of gold the Feds have created an inflated stock market. For many years now the public has never bought low, people have only bought high. Worse, they bought at an artificial, inflated and rigged high price.
When the Fed’s gold is one day gone the fraudulent manipulation will end. The gold price will go up and the stock market will fall. As it is inevitable that one day all the gold in the vaults will be gone, it is inevitable that the stock market will drop, a lot. And none of those equity based dreams will come true.
MEETING WITH SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE
This is how I tell it:
In May 2000 the GATA guys met with Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, another committee chairman (whose name escapes me) and eight of their aids. The meeting was arranged by someone who was a friend of Hastert for thirty years and it lasted for more than an hour. The GATA people were Bill Murphy, Chris Powell, James Turk and Reginald Howe. They laid out their case and left a report which is available on the Web. After it was over Hastert’s friend was told, "Stay away from gold. It is a case of national security."
National Security? This fraud is run through the International Monetary Fund which means the governments of more than 100 countries know about it. All of our enemies, real and potential, know about the manipulated gold market. The only people who don’t know are the American people. And that is what Hastert and his kind want: to keep the American people in the dark about what their government is doing to them.
Hank Fellerman
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By Greg Edwards
Dow Jones Newswires
Friday, April 22, 2005ST. LOUIS -- Wistar Holt says he's the only money manager
in St. Louis who is a true bear.How bearish is he?
The only equities that Holt buys are gold-mining stocks.
And he's been doing that since January 2001."Gold is the place to be, almost exclusively," Holt said.
His firm, Holt & Shapard Capital Management, manages
$40 million in assets for about 250 clients, mostly
individuals. The accounts are fully discretionary and
fee-based.Holt said he became concerned about the valuation of
the market in late 2000, got out entirely in January 2001,
and began looking for other investments to hedge a downturn
in the economy."The only thing I could come up with was gold," Holt said.
"It had just gone through a 20-year bear market, hitting
a low of $255 an ounce in January '01, from $850 an ounce
in May 1980." Recently it has been at about $435 an ounce.Today Holt & Shapard's investments are 70 percent in
precious metals mining stocks, 15 percent in the Prudent
Bear Fund, and 15 percentin the Prudent Global Income Fund,
a foreign government bond fund.The mining stocks are Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), Gold
Fields Ltd. (GFI), Goldcorp Inc. (GG), Hecla Mining Co.
(HL), Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE), Harmony Gold
Mining Co. (HMY), and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM).Because his portfolio is so heavily concentrated in one
area, Holt chose large-cap stocks to minimize risk."The criteria for all of these is that they are
primarily large-cap, established companies and they are
also unhedged," Holt said. "If you are in a gold bull
market, you don't want to be selling years-out production because you may be locking yourself into a price that
ends up being significantly lower than it is when that
time comes."Holt's returns, net after fees, were 31.2 percent in 2001,
155 percent in 2002, 20.1 percent in 2003, a loss of 17
percent in 2004, and a loss of 4.2 percent through the first quarter of this year.Holt isn't discouraged by the downturn this year and last:
"We think gold is still very much in a long-term bull
market," he said."I think gold will do well for several more years,
maybe even longer," he said. "At some point, gold will
get overvalued, and the market will presumably be
undervalued, and I may go 180 degrees back the other way."However, he said, "we're miles from that now."
Holt said his investing style has long been "deep value."
He spent 22 years with Wall Street firms, including Smith
Barney and Paine Webber. Eventually, he said, he no longer
fit in."My style just ran counter to Wall Street and New York,"
he said. "I was pressured to buy traditional equities, to
not be so bearish."Holt said the administration and the Federal Reserve have
done everything they can in recent years to stimulate the economy and forestall a recession."According to Austrian economics, which I subscribe to,"
Holt said, "when you massively stimulate the economy to
avoid a downturn, all you're really doing is deferring it."The downturn will be worse because of this," he said.
"That's why we remain entirely out of traditional equities." -
We love it !
but goldbugs sounds so silly, we call us better goldbulls ! ![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude")
Remember Bush got a bug name too !