Beiträge von Eldorado

Lancelot valueman

Ihr habt beide meiner meinung recht aber man sollte sich erstmal bewusst sein wer nun am billigsten gold aus der Afrikanischen Erde rausholt. Was helfen die resources von Harmony z.B. wenn es 445 Dollar kostet um es rauszuholen.Sobald ein Aufwaertstrend kommen sollte werde ich die haelfte von Afrika verkaufen, ein fass ohne boden ist es und bleibt es mit schwarzen management.Sobald Gewinn da ist kommen die und wollen wieder mehr von den Minen.

Wahrscheinlich nur mehr Rangy und GFI, vielleicht ein paar GSS werden gehalten.

Es gibt bessere Plaetze als Afrika, z.b. China und Mongolia die das Loch fuellen, bzw.Produktionsverluste der Affenminen.

Ich will bestimmt nicht in 15 Jahren noch in Minen investiert sein und mir sind die long life reserven in diesen fall auch wurst. Bei Gewinnmitnahme kaufe ich physical gold,das habe ich dann garantiert und bin dann auf Swanepoel nicht angewiesen.

Gruss

XEX

GOLD ( bis 29.04.2005)

Last week it inched upwards closely emulating the Euro’s move. This shows that it still has a very strong bond with the dollar’s movement. For the last four months I have been waiting for a sign of the breaking relationship between gold and the dollar but it hasn’t come. For that time, no convincing move has been witnessed in gold and it is one of the reasons why I have not given the buying signal. The other reason is that for the last three months, the period has been decidedly unfavourable to gold. However, this is poised to change soon.

For a short period, this week will be a positive time for gold except Monday and Tuesday. One can buy gold on Tuesday and sell it by Friday. This is because it looks very weak come Monday and Tuesday of next week.

For this week, the range of gold will be 428.40 to 439.20. The breaking of either side of these prices could result in a 2% move in the gold prices.

For the last one and half months, metal stocks have not performed well. This was bound to happen as the outlook regarding gold prices wasn’t very positive. Though gold prices have not fallen that much, negative planetary movements have affected metal stocks quite adversely.

For this week however, the outlook for metal stocks is quite favourable and one can therefore buy them for a short period.

SILVER

During this week silver will strongly move up after facing a tough time on Monday and Tuesday. One can therefore buy silver on Wednesday and sell it on Friday. In comparison to gold, silver is going to remain positive for the next one month. Similar to last week, silver will also have a wide range movement during this week.
The range will be $7.11 to $7.38.

CURRENCIES

Last week, the dollar was weak and all other currencies gained strongly against it. This is a great opportunity to get out from all currencies and just hold buying positions in the dollar. Go short in the Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and the Yen. I see the Euro soon touching $1.25

I WARN CURRENCY TRADERS TO TRADE CAREFULLY AS I SEE A ANOTHER VERY STRONG WAVE COMING IN THE DOLLAR.

Last week, currencies and oil gained strongly against the dollar. Gold and silver traded in range while coffee, grains and bonds gained handsomely as predicted. The stock market is in the grip of nature and faithfully following its course.

I WARN CURRENCY TRADERS TO TRADE CAREFULY AS I SEE A ANOTHER VERY STRONG WAVE COMING IN THE DOLLAR.Let us watch and see how commodities including gold will move when the dollar rises. The coming period will be very interesting as well being a decisive time for commodity traders.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra 23 April 2004

Bank chief says China may speed currency revaluation

By Geoff Dyer in Boao, Hainan
Published: April 25 2005 03:00 | Last updated: April 25 2005 03:00

China could accelerate plans to reform its controversial currency regime, because of mounting international pressure, the head of the country's central bank admitted at the weekend.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said the government was still working on the "sequencing" of a potential policy change, but acknowledged that encouragement from abroad could result in a quicker decision.

"If there is more pressure from outside, it may force us to speed up our reform," said Mr Zhou, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia on Hainan, an island in southern China.

The pressure on China to let its currency rise against the US dollar has increased in the last week, after the US and several other members of the G7 group of leading industrial nations called for China to take immediate action on its foreign exchange policy.

The US Congress and European Union are examining possible tariffs or other restrictions on Chinese imports. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and John Snow, US Treasury secretary, said last week it was China's responsibility to act now.

Non-tradeable forward contracts based on the renminbi jumped sharply last week as investors expected Beijing to ease its dollar peg. The discount on one-year non-deliverable renminbi-dollar forwards widened 550 points on Friday and 950 points during the week to 4,600, the widest level since early January.

This implied that the market was betting on an exchange rate of Rmb7.818 to the dollar in 12 months' time. Although China has fixed its currency at around Rmb8.3 to the dollar for over a decade, the government has indicated for some time that it was preparing a shift in policy. China's sharply rising exports and foreign exchange reserves have prompted growing accusations that the currency is undervalued.

Mr Zhou stressed there was no timetable yet for a change in policy. "We have a very clear target in this regard, but we have our own sequence," he said. "We are doing some preparation, for example the reform of the financial sector, to enlarge the role of the foreign-exchange market." Another leading Chinese official at the conference said investors should not expect a large currency appreciation.

"You can't expect the renminbi to appreciate by 10 per cent tomorrow. It would be disastrous for China as well as to other countries," said Wei Benhua, deputy chief of the state administration of foreign exchange. "If we adjust a little bit it will not contribute a great deal to reducing the trade deficit with the US."

And the beat goes on

Wenn ihr mich fragt dann warted erst ab wenn der Rand eindeutlich faellt,dann wuerde ich nachlegen aber erst ueber ca. 6.50 Rand /Dollar.
Vorher ist es totes capital und geht nirgendwo hin vielleicht sideways ?

XEX

Ich denke mir Merowinger hat recht und es ist sehr geheim was sich da abspielt. Schweiz, eines der geschuetzten Freimaurer Schutzzone neben Denmark. In der Schweiz gibt es um Kloten viele geheime Tunnel in den Bergen die sogar atomar geschuetzt sind wo sich vieles abspielt.
Der Vatikan verbirgt so viele Schaetze die gehalten und versteckt werden.

Eigentlich ist es ein Konzern anstatt Kirche.

Die Wurzel von allen Uebel ist Religion !!!

Gruss

XEX

Petzi

Hast schon recht aber warum soll ich etwas reinlegen woran ich nicht glaube ? Das ueberlasse ich anderen die long in fiat sind.

Gruss

XEX

Where does that all leave the investors ?

There it sits, reflecting the natural or artificial light and perhaps the glow of your satisfaction and reassurance.

You are a gold or silver investor and you are contemplating this little mound of metal in the comfort of your living room or perhaps some bank deposit facility. Either way, it's your metal and you intend to profit from it in the years to come. When you look at it, you see more than your face. You see multiplied profits, wealth preservation, crisis kudos and true money.

You congratulate yourself on getting in on the bull market early. You tell yourself that anyone getting in early will likely never make a loss in his or her lifetime. That is a good assumption to be working on.

Getting into metals when everyone was getting out is a tried and trusted investment technique. It worked for equities in the late seventies and it has worked for gold since the late nineties. The problem before our hypothetical investor is when to get out.

Perhaps one could apply the reverse technique? Get out when everyone is getting in. That sounds easy, but first you must recognise and respond to a few things. The first is your greed, the second is other investors' greed and the third greed is why I write today.
... more..

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/watson/watson042505.html

Petzi

Momentan ist der zyklus ganz schlecht bei RSA GM's
Da schau ich mir lieber diese kurven an als die von HMY z.B.

Gold & Oil

By Eric Hommelberg
April 25, 2005

Gold & Oil is chapter VIII of the Gold Drivers Report. It discusses the historical Gold/Oil ratio which suggest a price of Gold exceeding $800 nowadays and shines a light a light on previous oil shocks and their consequences. This is important since the era of cheap Oil will only be found in History books from now on. Sure, Alan Greenspan comes to the rescue every now and then to assure us that high Oil prices are just temporary, but unfortunately his statements contradict those of many industry experts such as Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes who all claim that we're approaching PEAK-OIL at an alarmingly high speed. It could be very well the case that PEAK-OIL is here right now but unfortunately we've to wait a few years in order to confirm. This chapter discusses PEAK-OIL and why it is about to bring a nasty Oil shock in the coming years..Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?

By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France
April 21, 2005

A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.

Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd).

"If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said. END.

You would probably wonder that if this situation is so dire indeed why politicians and or news directors don't seem to bother.

Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes says:

"My own feeling is that editors and news directors aren't interested in another Chicken Little story. No politician was going to run on a platform promising blood sweat and tears." END.

But hey, still there're brave congress man who aren't afraid to pick up the issue and to raise serious questions. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, Chairman of the Projection Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee, gave an hour long presentation on Peak Oil to the US Congress on Monday March 14:

More.....

http://www.321gold.com/editori…erg/hommelberg042505.html

Harmony deep in the red

Apr 25 2005 09:36:08:733AM
By: Justin Brown

Johannesburg - World number six gold miner Harmony Gold on Monday reported a headline loss of 107c for its March 2005 quarter compared with a loss of 88c in the December 2004 quarter.
An I-Net Bridge survey of seven analysts expected the miner to report a March quarter headline loss per share of 106c.

Forecasts ranged from a 76c loss to a 130c loss.

The group also reported a basic loss per share for the March 2005 quarter of 432c from 80c in the December 2004 quarter.

Gold production for the quarter declined 14% to 21 126kg from 24 604kg in the December quarter.

Harmony also announced a R1.513bn impairment of fixed assets in South Africa, which resulted in the group reporting a net loss R1.697bn from a R277m loss in the December quarter.

The group's March quarter gold price received was R83 273/kg from R84 031/kg in the December quarter.

Harmony's cash costs rose dramatically in the March quarter to R85 863/kg from R77 415/kg in the December quarter.

The group attributed the sharp increase in operating costs to a number of operational disruptions.

The company reported a cash operating loss of R54.7m from a cash operating profit of R163m in the December 2004 quarter.

The group's cash operating profit margin was a negative 3% for the March quarter from a positive 8% in the December quarter.

"The normal festive season and public holiday disruptions associated with the March quarter were compounded by several period specific events including a fire at Bambanani, a strike at the Free State operations, a 1% decrease in the rand gold price received and loss of Sunday work permission in the Free State," said Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel in a statement.

The group ended the March 2005 quarter with a negative R233m, compared with a positive cash balance of R2.337bn at the end of the March 2004 quarter.

Harmony keeps on falling, now at 5.34 Euro !
Goldfields at 8.05 Euro !

Where does it end ?

Tschonko

Die lage ist nicht einfach einzuschaetzen,fuer mich ist GFI die sichere Anlage da ich das Vertrauen in den depperten Swanepoel verloren habe.
Er hat mir viel Geld gekostest mit verspielten Optionsscheinen. Ich moechte da nichts mehr nachwerfen in dieses Fass ohne Boden. Minus 46% reicht um eigentlich den Schrott zu verkaufen,da kann man lange warten um da wieder raus zu kommen.Mit dem Rand, das dauert auch noch einige zeit so wie ich es sehe. Harmony und DRD sind ein Randpoker und Harmony kostet es 445 Dollar um eine Unze rauszuholen, da gibt es andere zu kaufen !
Was mir auch gefaellt ist das GFI doch mehr foreign assets hat was in diesen Zeitpunkt des starken Rand natuerlich gut tut. Sicher ist Harmony jetzt ein bargain mit 26% unter dem NAV, trotzdem fuer mich gehoert Swanepoel gefeuert

Gruss, have a nice day

XEX

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa's Harmony Gold (HARJ.J:

Quote, Profile, Research) posted a third quarter headline loss per share of 107 cents on Monday, slightly worse than market expectations.
Harmony was expected to deepen its headline loss per share to 99 cents for the three months to end March from 88 cents in the previous quarter, according to an average forecast of six analysts polled by Reuters.

The forecasts for the headline loss per share, which strips out capital, non-trading and extraordinary items, were in a range of 76 to 123 cents. Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd is the world's sixth biggest gold producer.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=66245

We are not making money fast enough to cover Harmony's losses," he said. "Even if they increased the offer, the Gold Fields' shareholder would just end up with a larger slice of the world's largest loss-making gold company." South Africa's mining firms have been hit by a buoyant rand that has inflated costs and eroded export earnings, despite gold prices reaching their highest in 16 years.

Gold Fields' chief said they were still making money thanks to a strategy put in place in 2003, as well as diversifying the production base into Ghana and Australia.

"We changed from our so-called 'Walmart' strategy (high volume at low margins) and exchanged it for what we call the 'Saks 5th Avenue' (better quality, better margins," he said.

The miner hopes to continue to explore new opportunities in other countries using quality, local partners."

I said at the time when Norilsk came on board and I will repeat it: I see some very exciting opportunities of cooperating with them." "Russia is geologically blessed with good gold deposits, Norilsk understands how to work there, I would certainly hope that going forward we can cooperate." Cockerill did not think Norilsk's recent announcement it will spin off its gold activities into a separate listed company would have any adverse impact on its relationship, which he admitted had been "strained" initially by its support for Harmony in the hostile bid.

"The spin off of their gold assets is entirely consistent with what they've been telling us for some time and is an emminently sensible approach," he said.

"It doesn't change one iota what we may or may not be doing with Norilsk down the road."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Harmony strike threatened

Monday April 25, 2005 07:35 - (SA)

By Bongolethu Futuse

By Tuesday, 4,914 workers employed by gold miner Harmony Gold in the Free State will be out of work, company spokesman Brenton Saunders says, provoking a national strike warning from the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) if the layoffs continue.

"We cannot delay the process any longer," Saunders said. The retrenchments come after 8,000 more Harmony workers were laid off in 2004.

About 850 workers have been served with retrenchment notices. There are thousands of miners who have refused to accept the notices, waiting to see what the NUM can do for them, but Saunders said that on Tuesday these workers would no longer be employed by Harmony.

Harmony has said that wages make up half its expenses, and to return its Free State mines to profitability it has to cut jobs and shut some shafts. The NUM has been in talks with Harmony's management to halt the job losses and is considering court action to force the company to retain the miners. "This is not a workers' issue. It is a managerial issue. They are making workers scapegoats," NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana said.

NUM Free State chairman Tanki Malefane said the union could approach courts early next week if talks with Harmony over the next few days failed.

"We thought that this was a positive approach to enable engagement. But if they respond negatively, we will apply to courts on Monday or Tuesday."

If the process failed, the only option left open for the NUM would be to go on a "national strike", Lekorotsoana said.

Posted to the web on: 25 April 2005
Kebble close to deciding on DRDGOLD
John Fraser

MINING veteran Roger Kebble is expected to announce this week whether he will bid for all or part of the two DRDGOLD mines that were placed in provisional liquidation last month, threatening 6500 jobs.

Kebble said at the weekend that he was completing due diligence exercises on the DRDGOLD mines, which at one time he operated, and was hoping to be ready this week with a decision on whether or not to make a bid.

He said there was “always potential” to reopen the mines, which were closed due to pressures from the strong rand. The final straw came with damage caused by earth tremors at the beginning of last month.

Kebble said the issue of who would pay for pumping costs, believed to be about R85m a year, at the two mines had to be resolved.

If he does take over the mines, which are near Klerksdorp, Kebble would make an offer through Simmer & Jack, a listed company of which he is chairman. He has said in the past he would also be keen to bid for DRDGOLD’s other South African assets.

However, DRDGOLD CE Mark Wellesley-Wood said last week that restructuring of the other local operations had been completed and the company intended to retain operations in SA.

The liquidators of the two mines have invited offers for the purchase of the mine’s assets as a going concern.

Gavin Klein of Westrust, which is one of three liquidators, said the liquidators “are very keen to engage with any interested party”.

He said that one company other than Simmer & Jack was engaged in due diligence. He would not name the company.

Harmony CE Bernard Swanepoel said recently that he had decided to take a look at the liquidated mines, following an approach from the unions.

“The main aim is to save as many jobs as possible and to renew production as soon as possible,” said Klein.

He said the liquidators would want to see whether any potential purchaser would be interested in taking over the mines as a going concern or whether they would just want to cherry-pick assets.

He said the liquidators had ensured that all essential services such as the hospital, the feeding of workers, fire and security, and pumping were continuing.

Trade union Solidarity said on Friday that it had held a meeting with workers in Stilfontein on the liquidation of DRDGOLD mines.

“The biggest problem is the fact that workers’ medical aid has lapsed,” the union said.

Solidarity also alleged that DRDGOLD owed its 268 members at the mine approximately R21m in severance packages.

Solidarity spokesman Dirk Hermann said the union wanted to exhaust all alternatives before the final liquidation “in an attempt to prevent the liquidation and keep the mine going so that the workers may keep their jobs”.

Others are already convinced that safety is in hard assets such as property. Well, while South Africa stays in a decreasing interest rate environment, as I believe it is, the property bulls should be fine. As long as they are choosy what they buy, what they pay relative to rentals achievable -- and save up for when tough times come again. Don't take on too much debt - ready for the day when tenants don't pay regularly and interest rates or municipal rates and taxes again rocket and everyone is a seller.

The property bull in South Africa is making the JSE Property Loan Stock sector even take on some "defensive" sector attributes, like healthcare. A place to invest when worry or fear levels for other sectors rise. There are not many places the JSE investor can go for safety though.

The main risk is probably from local factors, such as politicians doing and saying things to discourage foreign investment, just the way the good old Nats did. I didn't like hearing about government wanting to regulate judges even more. The rest of the world and thinking South Africans know that every social and economic disaster in history, started with the government of the day interfering with the Rule of Law. This aspect is being watched closely.

Nor should Mr. Mbeki be telling "The Economist" (4th April) his government intends to accelerate the transfer of wealth from white to black. What happened to the ideal of a non-racist, democratic, free economy?

Back to safe havens. RSA Gilts - or Treasury bonds as they are called in some countries, could still be at attractive buying levels on a two-year view. Could it be that Mr. Bush and team have to again start cutting rates in the US this year to lessen recession impact? The RSA 157 13.5% 2015 Gilt and the US 30 Year Long Bond yield trend profiles say so. The Rand's resilience after a surprise rate cut says so. The weak US$ and Wall Street says so.

If the US even breathes it is putting its rate hike bias on hold, SA gilt yields with their still attractive return differentials, become even more attractive. And even though South Africans are happily consuming and buying from outside on credit, interest rate hikes on technical evidence may still be a year or two off if the resources boom continues as expected.
As nervousness in global markets increases, I guess the US$ will be the earliest indicator for breather or dump on world markets next.

23 April 2005

Best regards
Victor Hugo