Beiträge von Eldorado

Zitat

Original von Ulfur
[ORION DAGENS ANALYSE MANDAG 18.04.2005
DAGENS CASE - CRU 6,92

Oppdatering styrker vår tro på aksjen
Vi snakket fredag med lederen i Crew, Jan Vestrum, og han gav oss en oppdatering på status og fremdrift i selskapet. Ifølge Vestrum arbeider ledelsen nå særlig på tre felter, og disse er som følger:
# Mindoro Nickel. Det arbeides iherdig med å få på plass en avtale om utvikling av dette gigantiske nikkelfeltet på Filippinene. Man forhandler i første rekke med to kinesiske gruveselskaper, og Vestrum så optimistisk på muligheten for å få til en god løsning innen utgangen av første halvår.
# Due diligence i forbindelse med oppkjøpet av APEX Mining på Filippinene. Basert på ressursgjennomgangen så langt virket Vestrum optimistisk og overbevist om at selskapet her har gjort et meget godt kjøp.
# Oppkjøp. Vestrum viste til Crews målsetning om å vokse fra å være et lite til å bli et mellomstort gullselskap. Han sa at dette er noe som det arbeides aktivt med og at man ikke skal utelukke et større oppkjøp i nær fremtid. Han sa at Crew i en sådan transaksjon ville være den ledende part og at eventuelle oppkjøp trolig ville bli finansiert gjennom en blanding av kontanter og nyutstedte aksjer. Sett i lys av det sistnevnte var han opptatt av at aksjekursen i Crew reflekterer potensialet i selskapet noe som han ikke nødvendigvis så var tilfelle i dag.

Nalunaq. Vi spurte også Vestrum om status for Nalunaq. Gruvedriften har så langt lidd under høyere kostnader og lavere volum enn ventet, men Vestrum sa at de fleste oppstartsproblemer nå var løst.

Med bakgrunn i samtalen har vi likevel valgt å nedjustere inntektsestimatet fra $11,5 mill for det nylig avsluttede kvartalet (regnskapsmessig selskapets tredje kvartal) til $8,0 mill. Samtidig har vi hevet anslaget for inneværende kvartal (regnskapsmessig selskapets fjerde kvartal) til $15,2 mill.

Crew (USD) Res.Q2 Estimat Q3
Omsetning 5,8 8,0
EBITDA -1,1 1,1
Driftsres. -2,4 -0,3
Res.f. skatt -4,4 -2,1
EPS (NOK) -0,15 -0,08

Resultatmessig forventer vi et underskudd på $2,1 mill i siste kvartal. Mer interessant er imidlertid at inneværende kvartal ligger an til å gi et overskudd på $14,1 mill før skatt. Den sterke resultatfremgangen reflekterer dels høyere inntekter fra gruvedriften på Nalunaq. Dernest solgte Crew sine aksjer i Seqi Olivin til LKAB for $10 mill, og gevinsten fra denne transaksjonen vil bli inntektsført dette kvartalet.

Konklusjon:
Fredagens samtale med ledelsen styrket oss i troen på at Crew er inne i en god utvikling, og vi ser flere kurstriggere i ukene fremover. Vi gjentar herved tidligere kjøpsanbefalinger.

Alles anzeigen

Jetzt kenne ich mich voll aus, Ulfur

Spass beiseite, TVI.TO TVI Pacific hatte auch probleme mit den rebels und umweltschuetzern, bzw. Indianer dort. Aber es scheint sich nun alles geloest zu haben, weil sie ja Phillipinos sind und eher auf die Canadian Companies losgehen. Die schiessen erst und fragen spaeter,sie lieben musik und ihre schusswaffen !

Gruss

Eldorado

Capstone Gold CSG.TO ist ein schnaeppchen, leider kann ich nicht zugreifen bei 85 cents.

Peter kriegt ein sterndel fuers staendige fragen !

XEX

http://www.agora-inc.com/repor…133043&u=1390100&l=775153

Peter

Eine blaue gibt es in der Apotheke, 50 - 100mg Peter und nach stunden siehst die mehere sternderl, sie aber auch !

Aber erst nehmen wenn alles klar ist, sonst hast nur kopfweh am naechsten morgen.

Wenn du begeistert bist dann kaufe gleich aktien von pfizer.

XEX

Wie hat der eine analyst gesagt ?

Mein Kollege hat emotional kapituliert aber nicht verkauft.

Ich renne nicht mit der herde und mache das gegenteil was das PPT erreichen will. Und wenn ich dabei hops gehe !

Wird scho wieder tschonko, alles ist vergaenglich,nur der eierkopf bleibt laenglich.

XEX

Ja Peter, kommt mir vor wie DRD am Donnerstag.
Muss mit kurzfristigen zinkpreis verfall zu tun haben nehme ich an.
Es hat ja alle getroffen, kupfer, zinn, blei, nickel, you name it.
Rohstoffe werden anscheinend manipuliert fuer ein paar tage.
Damit die US wirtschaft und Dow besser da steht, ganz klar !

Die Drecksaecke manipuliern alles zu ihren gunsten und hat mit demand und supply gar nichts zu tun.

Schade die CZN.TO wuerde ich gerne kaufen, aber die munition wurde letzte woche leider schon verschossen.

Ist so als haette man DRD fuer 50cents gekauft am Donnerstag.
Zur zeit ist CZN bei 38 cents, war schon auf 25 cents !!

Die spinnen die Roemer !

XEX

Was ist denn heute los mit Canadian Zinc, die fallen wie ein stein.

@ gold-loewe

Gut gebruellt am Anfang, herzlich willkommen von meiner seite.
Ich habe auch so angefangen, wie jeder.
Du hast Recht mit GATA aber die wissen auch nicht den genauen zeitpunkt wann das Cartel bzw. PPT in die knie geht.
Die munition die sie haben ist ja ein wahnsinn, selbst 61trillionen USD stoppten den dollar bis jetzt nicht. Der kommt aber als inflation zurueck und backfires eines tages. Das Wort Inflation fehlte die letzten Jahre und das nehmen die medien seit monaten wieder in den mund was wiederum gut fuer gold ist.

Gruss

Eldorado

GFI zieht bald den Hasen aus dem Hut , besonders wenn sie sich mit norilsk verbuenden sollten. Dann wird Swanepoel die klappe runterfallen,bzw.seine Burenohren.
GFI wird dann mehr in Russland und Mongolia taetig werden und sich mehr ins Ausland verlagern wo die produktions kosten geringer sind.
Ian Cockerill ist ein weitsichtiger mann und Swanepoel so kurzsichtig wie eine muraene der aber seine Aktionaere blutig gebissen hat.

IMHO

Gruss

XEX

Ich glaube ihr koennt nun den alarm wieder abblasen :

Gold 410 unsw. waere ja ein wahnsinn meiner meinung, ausserdem hat das PPT schon um diese grenze bitter gekaempft.

Macht besser einen Alarm thread auf fuer DOW, DAX etc.

IMHO

Oder ihr lasst blasen.

XEX

Stellt euch vor die bohren ins bulleye !

Wie Excellon vor kurzen, die trafen gleich in die mitte.

Ich hoffe es geht bergauf mit den juniors, tiefe kurse haben wir nun genug gehabt.

Unsere Pferderl auf dem ringelspui !.

Hop, Hop, bald im galopp.

Ciao

XEX

Ja da kommt freude auf !

@ peter ... Gmorning 2 !

Es wird eine turbulente woche,der tag faengt schon bedenklich bzw. bearish an.Ich hoffe es uebertraegt sich nicht auf den HUI und XAU.
Das problem ist wenn die anderen aktien maerkte sinken ziehen sie auch die Gold und Silberaktien mit.

Der Druck besteht weiter auf diese Aktien und man kann schwer eine prognose machen.

Das Unwetter ist noch nicht vorbei Peter.

Gruss

Eldorado

Barrick Targets Russia, Central Asia to Cut Costs (Update1)

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp., the world's third-biggest gold producer, plans to get as much as a fifth of its output from Russia and Central Asia by 2010 to reduce costs.

Toronto-based Barrick expects to be extracting between 15 and 20 percent of its gold in the region by then, Chief Executive Greg Wilkins said today in Moscow. The company doesn't produce gold in Russia now.

Extracting gold in Russia should cost less than $200 an ounce, compared with Barrick's current average of $220 to $230 an ounce, Wilkins said. The Toronto-based company expects the international gold price to be in the ``mid-$400s'' an ounce for the next two to three years.

``We have no direct production in Russia now, but there are significant opportunities here and the supply and demand fundamentals of gold are favorable,'' Wilkins said in an interview at the opening of Barrick's new Moscow office.

Barrick also wants to increase its 10 percent stake in Celtic Resources Holdings Plc, a Dublin-based company that plans to develop gold assets in Kazakhstan and the northeastern Siberian region of Yakutia.

Barrick and Celtic will develop the Nezhdaninskoye deposit in Yakutia, with Celtic owning the operating company.

Joint Projects

Barrick also holds a 14 percent stake in Highland Gold Mining Ltd, a London-based company that mines for gold in Russia. The two will jointly develop the Taseevskoye deposit in the Chita region in Russia's far east.

Wilkins said Barrick is looking at 10 to 15 more sites in Russia and Central Asia. The company wants to increase output by at much as 11 percent to 5.4 to 5.5 million ounces this year as three mines in Peru, Argentina and Tanzania start production.

Barrick shares fell 2 percent to 28.50 Canadian dollars at 9:09 a.m. in Toronto.

Wilkins said he was open to the idea of talking to Russian companies about joint participation in the auction for Sukhoi Log, Russia's biggest untapped gold field with at least 1,000 tons of reserves.

The Russian government said March 22 it wouldn't hold a tender for the field this year, and that only Russian companies will be able to bid when it does sell the field.

Developing Sukhoi Log will cost about $1.5 billion, ``so business prudence means you would need partners,'' Wilkins said. Barrick is not talking to potential partners yet because the rules and timing of the tender are unknown, he said.

Colorado-based Newmont Mining Corp. is the world's biggest gold producer by 2003 output, followed by AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. of South Africa.

Taylor On US$ & Gold

Richard Richard talked once again about deflation and the dollar short thesis; I believe the person who recently began circulating this thesis was Bob Hoye, who we interviewed a couple of months back. As Bob notes, the senior currency has always tended to be the strongest currency in major post-bubble eras in the past. In any event, Russell pointed to the stronger dollar, still very low U.S. interest rates, the stock market decline, and declining commodity prices as all suggestive that we could be heading toward deflation.

I could not agree with him more. The equity markets are looking forward and they do not like what they are seeing. What do they see? We won't know until later, but I think it is entirely possible they are getting a preview of the second Great Depression within 100 yeas as we have been suggesting was coming our way. The signs Richard Russell has oft stated are certainly not suggestive of the kind of healthy and growing economy talking head after talking head is suggesting on CNBC.

Friday we saw more strengthening of the dollar and the long bond. As can be seen from the chart above, the dollar has actually now broken above its downtrend line that began in 2002 albeit not as yet in a convincing manner. Consistent with recent "strength" of the dollar has been a recent strengthening of long U.S. Treasury instruments. Note the sharp rise in our the 20-year to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds which are contained within the Lehman iShares that trade under the symbol TLT. The rally in the ETF has allows us to narrow our loss in this Model Portfolio selection from just under 4% last week to 1.7% this week.

Gold Shares Remain Dreadful Performers, But That Should Soon Change

Gold shares are still acting dreadful. As can be seen on the chart on the left, both the GoldColony.com Index and J Taylor's Gold Stocks have hit new lows since about September 2003. I think Richard Russell is probably right in suggesting gold investments will initially be adversely affected when deflation gets the upper hand in the economy because people will first scramble for dollar liquidity before trying to hang on to their gold stocks.

The washout in the small cap gold stocks may be especially pronounced. But quite frankly, they are so cheap now, compared to what many of these companies have going for by way of the metal values they already have in the ground or are in the process of outlining. A couple of examples are once again mentioned in this weekly letter. But I truly believe this current period of weakness will most likely be seen as a golden buying opportunity for junior gold stocks. The succession should be as follows: 1) Investors scramble for cash by selling stocks, art objects, second homes and virtually everything they don't have to have to stay alive. They do this so they can remain financially solvent and hang on to the things they have to have. 2). Financial institutions begin to default, thus causing a lack of confidence in retaining fiat money in banks and other institutions. That leads people to seek the ultimate safety in money, which is beyond any doubt, gold. It is safe because unlike fiat money, it is an asset money, not a liability money as is the dollar. 3) As citizens and investors move from fit to gold, the real price of gold begins to rise dramatically. (Think Dow/Gold at a 1:1 ratio). As gold rises, the scramble for "money in the ground" will be increasingly more intense. In the gold shares, the initial move will be to the major mining firms and then down the food chain. Ultimately, the frenzy into this sector is likely to be so great that companies merely with the name "Gold" in them will likely rise significantly in value, though nominal values for these shares may be much more temperate than was true during the inflationary Internet mania. However, what we need to keep in mind during the deflationary era are "real" prices for gold and gold shares. With prices of virtually everything dropping, nominal values become of a secondary importance to purchasing power.

Major Gold Stocks Remain Weak

The chart of the XAU on your left demonstrates the weakness in the gold share markets last week. However, note the bull market remains very much in tact though the higher trend line displayed was violated on Friday. I would be concerned if the lower trend line were violated, but at least for now it appears quite safe. It is likely in my view that we will look back at this time as an excellent buying opportunity for the gold shares and especially for the juniors.

Aside from Cash, Gold Is Where We Want to Be

Bob Hoye gave an example of how gold tends to perform so well during deflationary periods of time. This is important to note because as I said earlier, most buyers of gold buy the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation when in fact, historically, gold acts best during deflation. Quoting Mr. Hoye from his "Pivotal Events" of this past Thursday:

"As the great financial bubble failed in October 1825, the biggest broker, Poole & Co. in London, was considered too big and important to go under.

"The Bank of England agreed, but the speed of the decline rendered any assistance impossible and the biggest broker in the world's financial capital defaulted. On that bubble collapse, initial pressure didn't clear the market until January 1826.

"The secular contraction, with the usual 3-4 year business cycle prevailing, endured the typical 20-25 years until 1844. On that post-bubble contraction, copper's real price went from 137 to 81 as gold's' real price increased from 107 to 174."

The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriar...arty041805.html

On Thursday the 14th of April, we had what appears to be a fairly classic case of capitulation. DROOPY plummeted from $.80 to an intraday low of $.30 before closing at $.66, down $.14 for the day. When shareholders get fed up and throw in the towel, that's a bottom.

The 0.5% interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank caught every economist on the wrong side of the track. To a man (or woman) they all forecast no rate cut. The Rand immediately collapsed from R6.10 to R6.30 against the dollar. I believe it is immaterial whether this rate cut was introduced for economic reasons in view of falling manufacturing output or large current account deficit, as an aid to exporters or for political reasons related to union pressure.

What really matters is the effect on the South African market and economy. First reactions are that as mortgage rates have also dropped by 0.5% the housing boom will continue unabated. In addition consumer spending and borrowing are expected to increase. But the main effect as far as I am concerned is on the currency. This rate cut, with the distinct probability of more to follow in the coming months, will dramatically reduce the interest rate differential between offshore borrowing rates and local bond rates making it far less attractive to deposit money in the South African financial markets. This is likely to be further influenced by rising offshore borrowing rates. The bottom line is that a capital outflow of all the funk money that poured into the country during the period of the strong Rand is likely as it repatriates to the offshore havens. As a strong currency play and interest rate differential market, South Africa is finished.

This can only be good for the economy as investment in capital goods and industry is what is required, not funk money that will desert at the drop on an interest rate.

The bounce in the Rand from R6.10 to touch R6.32 is a perfect signal to buy resource stocks as their export revenues will rise. The real analysis of the JSE now lies with an analysis of the Rand. Some schools of thought expect a gentle slide back to R6.70 at which point they anticipate a return to strength. Most economic observers are indicating a Rand back to at least R8 to the dollar. There are even some analysts believing that the Rand has seen its ultimate lows and will now revert back to test the previous weak lows of R14 to the $. I have consistently looked for a weaker Rand to move back to around R6.70 in the short term. After that I have to review the position but the data tends to indicate that further weakness is likely.

Read more:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html

Another article:

If you follow the myriad of "Gurus" all professing to have some magic "voodoo" which allows them to predict price and time movements, you will soon realize that following the crowd is a real good and real fast way to lose money. If "gurus" were worth a damn, they would give their service away, they wouldn't need to charge for it. But it's in the nature of man to want to follow the crowd and to listen to those who preach what they want to hear. That's why the scalliwags will always be present in the financial arena and always do quite well for themselves.

Commodities in general have been correcting and have a lot further to go. This includes oil as well as base metals. Moly is down from $35.50 to $32.45, oil from about $58 to $52 and I expect them to continue to correct. This does not mean it's a good time to sell, on the contrary, it's a good time to buy. Jim Rogers makes the most valid of points about where we stand in a commodities bull market. He points out that there are 40,000 stock mutual funds and 6 commodity funds. That's not a top. That's actually pretty close to a bottom, it doesn't get much worse.

Baby Bush and the Beltway Bandits continue to rape American taxpayers as they press on with their cornucopia of corruption and deceit. Congress abdicated their role as the institution responsible for declaring war when they passed a resolution allowing Baby Bush to invade Iraq pending two conditions, (1) Certification that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction and (2) Certification that Iraq was connected to 9/11.

Neither was true which makes the invasion illegal even according to US law, which Attorney General Gonzales considers quaint. Wars are easy to start and nearly impossible to end. You can no more win a war than you can win a case of the clap, everyone loses in a war. And they are expensive. Without doubt, when the reckoning is made, the Iraq invasion will prove to be the straw that broke the back of the dollar. The only real issue is if our Republic ends with a whimper or a bang.

After some 150,000 Iraqi deaths and 1600 American lives thrown away, Bush and crew seem tempted to try it again since they did such a wonderful job in Iraq. Our new target is Iran which Bush believes is on the verge of gaining nuclear weapons even though he can't figure out Israel posses a far great arsenal of WMD. If we attack Iran it will be obvious in the first week that we have bitten off far more than we can chew. For the first time since I have been alive, I firmly believe we are on the verge of a global nuclear war which we will lose. You can forget an Israeli attack in Iran, their aircraft lack the range and Israel has no friends anywhere in the region. If there is an attack on Iran, it will come from us and a short time later oil will be $100 a barrel. You won't be able to give dollars away.

There are some really valid reasons to invest in gold and precious metals, both in the physical and the shares. The dollar may be in a short term correction higher but like a row boat 500 meters upstream from Niagara Falls, the future is predictable and it's not a pretty picture. The dollar and our republic are toast. We are in a slow motion crash but make no mistake, Rome burns as Nero fiddles.

I wrote a piece in January, suggesting we were at a bottom. I was about half right. Silver hit the basement in January but gold and precious metals shares continued down until a temporary bottom in February. We have tested that bottom with a slightly lower XAU and HUI. Both of them seem to be discounting $350 gold which isn't in the cards. We had a hard crash in the metals shares on Friday and that's a good time to be buying. We have been in a 17 month correction since the beginning of December of 2003 and that's long enough for me. I believe if you invest now you will be soon rewarded.

The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)

http://www.321gold.com/editori…iarty/moriarty041805.html

Precious Metals Bulls, take heart, paper shares are merely a trade, a hedge in the Short to intermediate Term, before uncertainty unfolds.

This is precisely why; we have remained congruent with respect to GOLD and SILVER: "Own the Metals first." Nothing suits Precious Metals more than uncertainty. CONfidence lost is certainty gained; five thousand years of History remain entirely congruent in this simple exercise. GOLD and SILVER are money, they are sound, honest and remain Debt free.

The paper shares, at some point in the not too distant future will go up in flames as well; they are merely a leveraged play in the Metals. The opportunity to position in the shares after we complete this most recent, forced trend reversal will provide an enormous potential for Capital Gains.

This most recent attack was perfectly orchestrated. Those who recognized the assault in advance moved aside and now have the ability to repurchase shares at much lower price levels, thereby gaining in terms of both positions for entry as well as being able to purchase more shares.

We trade for position, and seek to make the greatest returns when we Buy and collect when we Sell.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/jmackenzie041705.html