The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)
Beiträge von Eldorado
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On Thursday the 14th of April, we had what appears to be a fairly classic case of capitulation. DROOPY plummeted from $.80 to an intraday low of $.30 before closing at $.66, down $.14 for the day. When shareholders get fed up and throw in the towel, that's a bottom.
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The 0.5% interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank caught every economist on the wrong side of the track. To a man (or woman) they all forecast no rate cut. The Rand immediately collapsed from R6.10 to R6.30 against the dollar. I believe it is immaterial whether this rate cut was introduced for economic reasons in view of falling manufacturing output or large current account deficit, as an aid to exporters or for political reasons related to union pressure.
What really matters is the effect on the South African market and economy. First reactions are that as mortgage rates have also dropped by 0.5% the housing boom will continue unabated. In addition consumer spending and borrowing are expected to increase. But the main effect as far as I am concerned is on the currency. This rate cut, with the distinct probability of more to follow in the coming months, will dramatically reduce the interest rate differential between offshore borrowing rates and local bond rates making it far less attractive to deposit money in the South African financial markets. This is likely to be further influenced by rising offshore borrowing rates. The bottom line is that a capital outflow of all the funk money that poured into the country during the period of the strong Rand is likely as it repatriates to the offshore havens. As a strong currency play and interest rate differential market, South Africa is finished.
This can only be good for the economy as investment in capital goods and industry is what is required, not funk money that will desert at the drop on an interest rate.
The bounce in the Rand from R6.10 to touch R6.32 is a perfect signal to buy resource stocks as their export revenues will rise. The real analysis of the JSE now lies with an analysis of the Rand. Some schools of thought expect a gentle slide back to R6.70 at which point they anticipate a return to strength. Most economic observers are indicating a Rand back to at least R8 to the dollar. There are even some analysts believing that the Rand has seen its ultimate lows and will now revert back to test the previous weak lows of R14 to the $. I have consistently looked for a weaker Rand to move back to around R6.70 in the short term. After that I have to review the position but the data tends to indicate that further weakness is likely.
Read more:
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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey041705.html
Another article:
If you follow the myriad of "Gurus" all professing to have some magic "voodoo" which allows them to predict price and time movements, you will soon realize that following the crowd is a real good and real fast way to lose money. If "gurus" were worth a damn, they would give their service away, they wouldn't need to charge for it. But it's in the nature of man to want to follow the crowd and to listen to those who preach what they want to hear. That's why the scalliwags will always be present in the financial arena and always do quite well for themselves.
Commodities in general have been correcting and have a lot further to go. This includes oil as well as base metals. Moly is down from $35.50 to $32.45, oil from about $58 to $52 and I expect them to continue to correct. This does not mean it's a good time to sell, on the contrary, it's a good time to buy. Jim Rogers makes the most valid of points about where we stand in a commodities bull market. He points out that there are 40,000 stock mutual funds and 6 commodity funds. That's not a top. That's actually pretty close to a bottom, it doesn't get much worse.
Baby Bush and the Beltway Bandits continue to rape American taxpayers as they press on with their cornucopia of corruption and deceit. Congress abdicated their role as the institution responsible for declaring war when they passed a resolution allowing Baby Bush to invade Iraq pending two conditions, (1) Certification that Iraq possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction and (2) Certification that Iraq was connected to 9/11.
Neither was true which makes the invasion illegal even according to US law, which Attorney General Gonzales considers quaint. Wars are easy to start and nearly impossible to end. You can no more win a war than you can win a case of the clap, everyone loses in a war. And they are expensive. Without doubt, when the reckoning is made, the Iraq invasion will prove to be the straw that broke the back of the dollar. The only real issue is if our Republic ends with a whimper or a bang.
After some 150,000 Iraqi deaths and 1600 American lives thrown away, Bush and crew seem tempted to try it again since they did such a wonderful job in Iraq. Our new target is Iran which Bush believes is on the verge of gaining nuclear weapons even though he can't figure out Israel posses a far great arsenal of WMD. If we attack Iran it will be obvious in the first week that we have bitten off far more than we can chew. For the first time since I have been alive, I firmly believe we are on the verge of a global nuclear war which we will lose. You can forget an Israeli attack in Iran, their aircraft lack the range and Israel has no friends anywhere in the region. If there is an attack on Iran, it will come from us and a short time later oil will be $100 a barrel. You won't be able to give dollars away.
There are some really valid reasons to invest in gold and precious metals, both in the physical and the shares. The dollar may be in a short term correction higher but like a row boat 500 meters upstream from Niagara Falls, the future is predictable and it's not a pretty picture. The dollar and our republic are toast. We are in a slow motion crash but make no mistake, Rome burns as Nero fiddles.
I wrote a piece in January, suggesting we were at a bottom. I was about half right. Silver hit the basement in January but gold and precious metals shares continued down until a temporary bottom in February. We have tested that bottom with a slightly lower XAU and HUI. Both of them seem to be discounting $350 gold which isn't in the cards. We had a hard crash in the metals shares on Friday and that's a good time to be buying. We have been in a 17 month correction since the beginning of December of 2003 and that's long enough for me. I believe if you invest now you will be soon rewarded.
The easiest money to be made investing in metals shares is to buy just before a mine goes into production. It's the most predictable move in mining. I mentioned Desert Sun (DSM-T $1.66) and Endeavour Silver (EDR-V $2.13) in January and both of them had nice (and predictable) moves higher. But the stock which is just screaming BUY-ME, BUY-ME has to be Excellon. (EXN-V $.20 Canadian 150 million shares fully diluted)
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Precious Metals Bulls, take heart, paper shares are merely a trade, a hedge in the Short to intermediate Term, before uncertainty unfolds.
This is precisely why; we have remained congruent with respect to GOLD and SILVER: "Own the Metals first." Nothing suits Precious Metals more than uncertainty. CONfidence lost is certainty gained; five thousand years of History remain entirely congruent in this simple exercise. GOLD and SILVER are money, they are sound, honest and remain Debt free.
The paper shares, at some point in the not too distant future will go up in flames as well; they are merely a leveraged play in the Metals. The opportunity to position in the shares after we complete this most recent, forced trend reversal will provide an enormous potential for Capital Gains.
This most recent attack was perfectly orchestrated. Those who recognized the assault in advance moved aside and now have the ability to repurchase shares at much lower price levels, thereby gaining in terms of both positions for entry as well as being able to purchase more shares.
We trade for position, and seek to make the greatest returns when we Buy and collect when we Sell.
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Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Mike Hartman's new essay, "The Stakes Are Very
High," concludes that government intervention in
the markets is now pervasive and obvious. GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy's commentary at
LeMetropoleCafe.com is quoted. You can find
Hartman's essay at Gold-Eagle.com here: -
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Ich weiss nicht was du mit glattgestellt verstehst.
SSRI ist fast oder schon am boden und ist mit einen bein ueber die technische klippe, bzw. charts gefahren. Ich wuerde die blind kaufen selbst wenn die gefahr besteht das sie nochmals 3 % sinken.Im grunde genommen sind fast alle im HUI/XAU ueber charttechnische levels gefallen am Freitag.
So what, sei nicht zu smart !
Smartinvestor war in panik stimmung vor der attacke und hat die haelfte SSRI dummerweise verkauft. .....Who the hell is Falko Bozicevic ??
.......Wir nehmen im Gegenzug zum morgigen Schlußkurs die Aktien der Baader Wertpapierhandelsbank wieder ins Depot
Der Trottel hat sogar Harmony verkauft und Nova Gold,der ist ausgewaschen und hat jetzt Baaden in der hand anstatt silber.Smartinvestor, fuer den kritischen Anleger !
http://www.smartinvestor.de/Der Bericht wurde am 12.April geschrieben, zwei tage vor dem crash !
Ich waere schwer entaeuscht wenn der XAU unter 85 geht und der HUI unter 180 faellt.
In ein paar tagen weiss ich ob sie halten.
In the end, its up to you.
BUY, SELL, HOLD !
Gruss
Eldorado
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Roffey ist ja ganz optimistisch mit seinen vorraussagen,entweder kracht der rand oder gold steigt enorm. Naechste sitzung der reserve bank wird wieder eine zinskuerzung sein,vermute ich. Wahrscheinlich kommt wieder der boss von NY vorher zu besuch.
Wie schon oft geauessert fuer mich ist da manipulation im spiel und es kann durchaus passieren was er sagt.
Wir werden es ja in sechs monaten sehen ob er recht hat.
Auf alle faelle stinkt das ganze, erst recht der shareprice der ja laecherlich ist.
Naechste Woche gehts in die naechste runde.
Das PPT wird wieder aktiv sein,das steht fest.
Last men standing !
Mfg
Eldorado
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Herr Meier der auch angibt er ist gleichzeitig Nahost und Militaerexperte glaubt mit seinem Expertenwissen folgendes:
http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…/artikel.php?storyid=1041
Die Antwort hier im forum ist aber :
http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/thread.php?threadid=1664&sid=
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Herr Meier sollte mal seine subjective aussage GATA (LMC) presentieren, die lachen ihn jedoch aus und zeigen ihn fakten das er total falsch liegt. Fuer mich arbeitet er indirekt fuer die leute die gold und silber fans demoralisieren wollen und heult mit den woelfen vom PPT.
Zitat Herr Meier:
""Der Kunde erwirbt einen Anteil an einem Gold-Standardbarren ca. 400 oz / 12,5 kg mit einer minimalen Feinheit von 995/1000. In der Regel benützt der Kunde ein Metall-Konto lediglich als Handels-Plattform. Selten kommt es zu einer physischen Auslieferung"".
Moechte mal sehen ob seine bank in kuerze z.B. 500.000 Unzen silber oder gold physisch liefern kann.
Die halten meiner meinung vielleicht gerade max. 10% von dem was sie am papier verkauft bzw.verleiht haben.
Laut LMC oder GATA wurden fast 5 Jahresproduktionen leer verkauft ueber JPM Chase und Citi Bank, etc.
Die sitzen auf eine derivative bombe und werden von der Federal Reserve gestuetzt mit allen tricks in der kiste weil sie eben nicht liefern koennen. Das sogenannte PPT (Plunge Protection Team) sitzt in der Klemme und ich freue mich auf den Tag wenn sie baden gehen mit dem grossen Schwindel den sie ueber Jahre gemacht haben.
Ich kann ueber den Bericht von Herrn Meier nur grinsen
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude")
Er kann sich sein papier behalten, seeing is believing !
Ein banker wie er, der auch gleichzeitig angibt er ist ebenso militaer experte und Nahost experte ?(, kann ich so und so keinen glauben schenken.
Auf alle Faelle moechte ich mich von ihn nicht militaerisch beraten lassen, dann kann ich gleich auf ein himmelsfahrt kommando gehen.Ja, die Banken... sie verleihen geld und gold was sie nicht besitzen und verlangen dafuer zinsen und verwaltungsgebuehren. :))
Gruss
Eldorado
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Gunned down for R10
17/04/2005 08:19 - (SA)
Sonia Molema
Pretoria - The last time a Soshanguve teenager saw her father alive was on Monday night when he went to the local tuckshop to buy candles. A few minutes later he was lying in a pool of blood, dead.
Peter Kekana, 48, was allegedly shot dead by tuckshop owner Hellen Malapile, 41, after a heated argument over his R10 change after buying candles and matches with a R20-note.
Kekana died on the spot after being shot at close range with two bullets to the head.
Back at home Stephina Kekana, 16, waited for her father to return with candles, unaware that the two gunshots she heard earlier had ended the life of her father.
When residents ran to the tuckshop after hearing gunshots, she joined them, unaware that the person who lay dead was her father.
"I pushed the crowd to have a clear view of the person who had been shot dead. I recognised my father by his blue sandals.
"I came closer to the body and confirmed it was him. I called out his name but I got no response."
Stephina said she cried and desperately tried to wake her father up.
Her mother Rebecca, who was coming from work, also joined the crowd unaware that the person who was shot dead was her husband.
'I thought I was dreaming'
"It thought I was dreaming when I saw my husband's lifeless body on the ground," she said.
An angry mob then went on a rampage and set Malapile's house and tuckshop alight. They also wanted to stone her but she was saved by the police.
Malapile's assistant, Magdeline Moropola, told the police that an argument over R10 change led to Kekana's death.
Apparently, Kekana bought a packet of candles and eight boxes of matches from her and claimed he had given her a R20-note.
He argued that his change was supposed to be R10, but the assistant said she insisted that he had given her R10 and not R20.
Moropola told the police that Kekana allegedly tried to take R10 out of the till. She then called her employer, Malapile, who after a lengthy argument with Kekana allegedly shot him at close range.
Investigating officer Desmond Leemise said a murder case had been opened against Malapile, who appeared briefly at the Soshanguve magistrates' court on Friday. The court date was set for April 20 and Malapile was remanded.
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Halbe position von MGN ist noch im Depo. Bei dem tsunami am Donnerstag und Freitag habe ich nichts gemacht.
Plus minus null mit MGN, mal schaun was naechste woche passiert.Have a nice sunday too !
XEX
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Hot Inflation Meteorites
Big Picture As our cartoonist shows, below, planet earth is about to be bombarded by hot inflation meteorites. It's coming as a surprise/shock to mkts (especially bonds). But page 1 HSL cartoon on May 9, 2004, showed inflation was quietly launched in 2004 (unseen by outmoded & govt "adjusted" indices, like the CPI's in various nations). We forecast it would evolve into high-pitched inflation in 2005-06. Then, move into stagflation in perhaps 2006-7, then into recession -- perhaps in 2008-09. Precise dating isn't possible, but this is a long-range guided Biggy Big Picture as I see it. And the heating-up inflation stage is now becoming apparent in the US, UK, China, Oz, NZ & a few other places. It'll be broader & more extreme as we move into Q2.
