Beiträge von Eldorado

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton010702.html

GOLD

During this week I see metals struggling to fight the
dollar's rise and one can therefore do some day
trading. Sell if gold rises dollar six and buy if it
falls dollar eight. I still do not recommend holding
buying positions in gold for a period of about two
months. It is clear that gold will trade in a range of
dollar twenty one for the next few weeks from Friday's
closing.

This week range will be $428.80 to $415.20.

Concern - The dollar's rise will still be an important
factor for gold and it may take a few more weeks to
break this relation.

SILVER

This week, silver will remain stable but it may be
very volatile on Tuesday and Wednesday with prices
likely to fluctuate on both sides around the range of
fifty cents so trade carefully.

I advise that you only do some day trading. If it
rises more than 18 cents, then one can sell and if it
falls by the same amount one can buy.

One very interesting point will be that - Silver will
disconnect from the gold relationship in the next ten
days. .

April 15 – Gold $424.30 up $1.10 – Silver $7 down 4 cents

What Our Planet Knows That Theirs Does Not!

"There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution."

Aldous Huxley's lecture to The California Medical School in San Francisco in 1961

What you see happening in the markets, or reported on in MIDAS as far as what The Gold Cartel is doing, is extremely significant IMO, … EXTREMELY. From last evening’s commentary:

"What you see here is The Gold Cartel ripping off the specs and keeping gold in check to prevent the derivatives bomb from going off. The creeps sell as gold approaches $429 and buy back when gold approaches $420 because of the strength in the cash market. The crooks were in there buying today when gold took out $423, as the funds were dumping heavily."…

"The Orwellians are running out of ammo and deceitful tricks. Their huffing and puffing has little force behind it anymore. The Gold Cartel was covering shorts like mad on today's bashing they are running so scared."

The Gold Cartel stopped gold cold at $429 on Wednesday to keep the price in lockdown mode and to make sure gold volatility remained low. However, when they had a chance to bury the price yesterday, they were in there scooping up all the cheap gold they could, as the funds sold. This is the fastest cabal turnaround time from major capping to major buying ever. They used to move like this over a period of months, then many weeks, then a week, now within two days. This tells me they are running SCARED and don’t want to be overly short for too long, for one. Secondly, they have to increasingly compete with cash market buyers. If they don’t cover quickly on breaks, they might not get to take in profits from their orchestrated, anti-trust violating price capping maneuvers.

I suggest to you this telegraphs the game at these price levels is nearing an end. They don’t have the physical gold to keep their fraud going much longer at these prices. They must allow gold to rally to ration their dwindling supply and slow down the physical buying. The bum’s big hope for supply is IMF gold, which will be discussed this weekend at the G-7 meeting. Just the talk of those sales has kept a number of buyers on the sidelines. Should those hopes be dashed for all practical purposes, look for gold to take off and blow through $430. (It ought to anyway; however, we know what we are up against.)

Still, The Gold Cartel is not running for the hills yet. With the euro up .90 to 129.42, the dollar down nearly .50 to 80.49, and the stock market collapsing this afternoon, the cabal took gold from up over $2 to down slightly on the Comex session before it recovered. Talk about absurd? Gold should have rocketed up $5 on those market developments. This is why I cannot insult the mainstream gold world enough on their silence about this blatant market manipulation and hideous fraud.

By the close gold drifted back up when the DOW rallied 50 off its lows. How perverse! Who knows how low gold might have been taken when the stock market dropped like a stone late in the day. Volatility has picked up noticeably in every US financial market except gold. US interest rates, the dollar, the stock market have begun trading like pinball machines. Not gold. It just stays in a tight trading range, where it has been for a month.

The dollar hit the skids today and US interest rates plummeted – and of course the US stock market was battered. Now you know why they jacked up the dollar the past couple of weeks. The Orwellians needed some kind of cushion for what lied ahead and they got it by taking the dollar higher – which made no sense at the time unless you know what GATA knows.

What we have developing here is the perfect storm (as Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com likes to call it) developing day after day. It should send gold to the moon and will as soon as The Gold Cartel blows up. It could happen at any time. I won’t jinx it by saying the volcanic price explosion is imminent.

Here is a real plus. The Comex gold stocks dropped 150,000 ounces (1500 contracts) or the most since June of 2004. This bears watching.

Almost no one out there is short-term bullish. The lack of understanding of what this gold market is really all about is astounding. The mainstream gold world is the biggest bunch of stupids ever assembled. Either that or they are the most disingenuous liars ever to be found in one industry. The gold farce/fraud could not be more blatant. YOU and I are paying the price for this gross negligence. More below.

Silver just goes up and down on this and that. Part of the same disgraceful price manipulation scheme.

I still say gold and silver are going to blow sky high. The sooner the better.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: A call to Warren Buffet?

Friday, April 15, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.36, PM $4.49, with world gold at $422.95 and $423.35. Considering all the Indian reporting cities together, premiums were ample for legal imports. A respectable performance, considering the rupee weakened sharply on foreign liquidation of Indian shares. The Bombay Index was down 3.39%.

Confronted with world gold $4 lower than the previous close, TOCOM managed a very faint sign of interest. Volume rose 35% to the equivalent of 15,198 Comex, and open interest edged up the equivalent of 445 NY lots to equal 91,938 Comex. Mitsubishi’s data implies the public added 193 Comex to their long. The active contract closed down 8 yen and world gold went out 95c below the end in NY. (NY yesterday is said to have traded 68,143 contracts. Open interest fell 2,842 lots to 277,397.)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange was unswayed by President Bush’s call yesterday for a revaluation of the Yuan. Premiums over world gold jumped over $1 to the $4.21 - $4.55 range, which is quite high. Clearly local traders do not expect any change in the exchange rate.

Yesterday, in the words of HSBC

"Gold prices lurched lower…as the rally in the dollar and the weight of long liquidation in other commodities finally took its toll."

The toll was forcibly exacted by quite a large scale fund raid: actual volume was 24% above the estimate, and half of it was apparently done in the first couple of hours.

ScotiaMocatta’s account is

"Selling during European trading hours carried over into the New York session, bringing about fresh buying from physical traders with the lower prices. Gold spent the early part of the day trading between 425.00 and 426.00 with funds on the offer and New York dealers and physical traders on the bid. However, the fund selling finally proved to be too much putting resting stop loss orders into play…."

The UBS version is

"In New York yesterday, gold opened on the highs at $425.70 / 426.10 and attracted heavy speculative selling as the euro and gold equities came under pressure. Support at $424 was broken and the metal traded to a low of $421.75 / 422.25 to test the 200-day moving average."

Significantly, Dealer and short covering as well as the usual physical buying appeared on the lows:

UBS:

"We saw good scale down buying from a combination of short-covering and physical demand and this, together with the bounce in the euro saw gold close around $424/oz,"

ScotiaMocatta:

"The metal fell to the session low of 421.70/422.20 where dealers stepped in on the buy side. Bargain hunting then helped lift the price back near 424.00…"

This suggests that at least some professional traders do not choose to contest the Middle Eastern/Indian demand in the low $420s.

Seeing the stories yesterday of Warren Buffet allegedly cutting his dollar short positions brought back memories of the Phibro/Salomon silver position, suddenly taken on Easter Monday 1994, shocking the market, and then mysteriously liquidated. There was a story (which I believe to be true) that Buffet, then influential at the firm, ordered it sold on the grounds it was attracting hostile attention from Washington. Possibly the AIG/General Re situation is more of a problem than most assume.

JB

Two notes on JB’s always superb input:

The open interest reduction was a result of The Gold Cartel covering and in line with my earlier comments.
Buffett’s firm was Salomon Bros. Jimmy DePiazza of Phibro, a Salomon subsidiary, had the silver market cornered. Salomon was going through a bond scandal because of a huge guru bond trader named Meriwether. The government suggested Phibro dump their silver position or Salomon would have US agents all over their operation and books for years to come. Buffett caved.
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Blacklisting 'to stop thieves'

Apr 13 2005 01:38:59:230PM

Pretoria - A new initiative to blacklist all stolen cellphones will remove one of the biggest incentives for theft, which often leaves the victim dead.
It was announced on Wednesday that all cellphones reported stolen are to be blacklisted in future - rendering them immediately unusable, in terms of a new crime-prevention initiative announced by police and cellphone operators.

National police commissioner Jackie Selebi said at a ceremony in Pretoria to witness the signing of an agreement to this effect that the initiative would remove the incentive for cellphone theft and robbery and prevent stolen cellphones being used to commit criminal acts.

Selebi said: "I am glad we came together to say we need to limit the scope of criminals to use cellphones to further make this country look like a country that is not in control of itself."

He quoted research indicating that cellphone theft was the sole motive for up to half of robberies in some areas - often leaving the victim dead.

Sino Silver Announces Closing of Silver Dragon Transaction and a Supplement to the CITIC Metal Strategic Cooperation Agreement

Friday April 15, 9:15 am ET

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 15, 2005--Sino Silver Corp. (OTCBB:SSLV - News) today announced the signing of an Agreement with Silver Dragon Resources Inc. (OTCBB:SDRG - News) whereby Silver Dragon has acquired 50% of Sino Silver's interest in the net proceeds from the sale of minerals or the sale of mining rights as a result of the exploration, evaluation and development of the Aobaotugounao property located in the Erbaohuo Silver District in Northern China.
The transaction requires a payment by Silver Dragon of US$350,000 over a two year period, US$150,000 of which has been paid, along with 250,000 shares of restricted Silver Dragon common stock, plus an additional 250,000 shares to be delivered to Sino Silver in one year.

In addition, the transaction gives Silver Dragon the option of acquiring 50% of Sino Silver's interest in the net proceeds from the sale of minerals or the sale of mining rights in one additional property within the region within 30 days on similar terms.

Further to the press release of November 29, 2004, Sino Silver is pleased to announce that it has signed a supplement to the Strategic Cooperation Agreement with CITIC Metal Co., Ltd. ("CITIC Metal"), a subsidiary of China International Trust and Investment Corporation ("CITIC").

Under the terms of the supplement CITIC Metal and Sino Silver have agreed to establish a Joint Operating Committee, consisting of two designees of CITIC Metal, Mr. Sun Yufeng, President and Mr. Cao Tiezhue, Master and two designees of Sino Silver, Mr. Ian Park, President and J. Randy Martin, Director.

This Committee will review potential acquisitions of producing silver mines and/or feasibility stage silver projects in China and will undertake all legal and technical due diligence in connection with the possible acquisition of such projects. In addition, it will determine the appropriate legal structure for each separate project with equity ownership to be determined on a case by case basis and will negotiate the acquisition of the project if deemed warranted. If either party decides not to participate in any acquisition, then the remaining party may proceed alone or with a third party.

CITIC, established in 1979, is a large transnational conglomerate with 44 subsidiaries located on mainland China, Hong Kong and in other parts of the world. CITIC's core businesses include finance, energy, manufacturing, real estate and telecommunications. CITIC Metal is one of the few licensed silver importers and exporters in China. CITIC Metal is also involved in the import and export of major metals products such as ferro-niobium, nitrovan ferro-alloy and iron ore.

Certain statements in the news release contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements relating to plans for future business development activities and prospective financial matters. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, general economic conditions, specific factors affecting the silver markets, competition, interest rate sensitivity and exposure to regulatory and governmental requirements and changes, as well as those risks disclosed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-KSB for the year ended December 31, 2004.

Tschonko

Das mit ruecklaufigen merkur kapiere ich nicht vielleicht kannst du mir da auf die spruenge helfen.

Ich schau mir gleich an was mit dem goldenen adler los ist, danke.

Alles gute

XEX

Cut 'too late to save jobs'

Apr 14 2005 05:13:03:050PM



Johannesburg - The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) has welcomed the decision by the Reserve Bank to reduce the repo rate by 50 basis points, but it says far more vigorous action is needed to stem the tide of job losses in the mining and manufacturing sectors that have resulted largely from the overvaluation of the rand.
"The decision to cut the repo rate demonstrates that the government has begun to recognise the distress that high real interest rates and the related overvaluation of the rand has caused our people.

We would have preferred a deeper cut, as in real terms interest rates remain high, compared both to major economies overseas and to the historical situation in South Africa.

Still, we hope this moderate reduction is a signal that the state is no longer willing to prop up the rand at unrealistic levels," it said.

"The cut in the repo rate comes too late, however, to save the jobs of the thousands of workers on the mines and in manufacturing who have received retrenchment notices in the past few weeks.

"Government should act immediately to encourage employers to reverse these decisions. Employers should reconsider their actions in light of the setback these job losses will impose on our people and our economy," it added.

Cosatu said it was developing a plan of action on jobs and poverty to address the retrenchment issue. "We will discuss this programme at our Central Executive Committee next month," it said.

Harmony lags GFI 1.55 times

Apr 15 2005 02:08:19:597PM

Harmony's job shocker




Johannesburg - The premium of world number four gold miner Gold Fields' shares to that of rival Harmony's shares on Friday opened to 1.55 times, the widest level since Harmony launched its bid for Gold Fields on October 18 2004.
Harmony is currently offering Gold Fields' shareholders 1.275 Harmony shares for every Gold Fields security held.

Just before Harmony launched its bid for Gold Fields, Harmony and Gold Fields shares were trading at parity.

Harmony's authorised share capital stands at 1.2 billion shares.

At the end of Harmony's 2004 financial year its issued share capital was 320.742 million shares and at the end of Gold Fields' 2004 financial year its issued share capital was 491.493 million.

At the start of Harmony's bid it had approximately 879.258 million shares to issue for Gold Fields' shares, which means the maximum offer ratio that Harmony can offer is about 1.780 Harmony shares for every Gold Fields security held.

However, Harmony's two major shareholders African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and fund manager Allan Gray have said they won't support an increase in Harmony's offer to Gold Fields' shareholders.

Since the bid's launch Harmony has acquired 11.6% of Gold Fields' shares and its issued share capital has increased to 393.232 million shares, Harmony spokesperson Brenton Saunders confirmed.

At 13:50, Gold Fields' shares were quoted at R66.66, up 0.2% or 51c, 1.53 times Harmony's shares, which were quoted at R43.50, down 1.1% or 50c.

Harmony is set to release its March quarter results on April 25 and the group is expected to report its seventh consecutive loss making quarter.

Gold Fields will issue its March quarter results on April 28, with the group expected to report a profit.

Absa sees more rate cuts

Apr 14 2005 07:37:15:227PM
By: Ray Faure

Johannesburg - Another 50 basis point cut could be in the offing later in 2005, according to Absa chief economist Christo Luus.
He then expects rates to remain stable with prime at 10% until the second quarter of 2006 when a rise can be expected.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank surprised with a 50 basis point cut in the repo rate to 7% at the end of its two-day meeting.

Most economists had expected rates to remain steady.

Luus says it would appear that the major factor which swayed MPC opinion to effect a rate cut, was their "concern (with) evidence of some slackening in activity in some sectors of the economy as a result of the move by the rand to a higher trading range over the past six months".

"This," he points out, "would indicate that with inflation seemingly under control, some emphasis in terms of monetary policy conduct will now be shifting towards promoting growth."

The surprise move does make the future course of interest rates in 2005 and 2006 much more uncertain, he believes.

"The rand has reacted fairly negatively to the cut, while any further demand stimulus will possibly cause the current account deficit to rise to more than 5% of GDP in 2006.

"Depending on the extent of capital flows by then, such a deficit could imply pressure on the rand and eventually higher inflation.

"Therefore, the more aggressive the Reserve Bank now becomes with regard to interest rates cuts, the more certain the eventuality of rate increases in 2006.

"For now, we would take the view that another 50 basis point cut may be in the offing later in 2005, and for rates to remain stable (prime at 10%) until the second quarter of 2006 when a rise can be expected," Luus says.

Harmony holds retrenchments

Apr 15 2005 07:54:26:723PM


Johannesburg, April 15 (I-Net Bridge) - World number six gold miner Harmony Gold will hold off issuing retrenchment notices until next week, April 21.
Ths is while an investigation into the individual shafts affected by restructuring is done up to April 20, a Solidarity spokesperson said on Friday.

A meeting will be held on April 20 and the following day the retrenchment notices will be issued, he added.

On March 14 and March 15 2005, Harmony issued Section 189 notices of restructuring to unions and staff associations at five operations.

The Welkom 1, which employs 526 people, St Helena (817 people), Nyala (1 003 people), Masimong (669 people) and Bambanani gold mine near Welkom (1 899 workers), were issued with notices.

The notices of restructuring affect a total of 4 914 miners.

Tschonko

Aurizon erst seit mittwoch am radar, bestimmt ein guter wert langfristig gesehen. Die Juniors wurden ja maechtig gepruegelt, sitze mit allen nun auf minus 26 %. Der Profit bei den Senioren ist nun +/- null.
Als ob ich gerade angefangen habe

Der HUI, dachte ich stoppt bei 195, aber das war auch falsch, vor drei tagen habe ich meine vorraussage auf 180 gesetzt, die hat bis jetzt gehalten. Weniger waere ja ein wahnsinn bei dem gold und silberpreis.
Die P/E ratios sind ja nun unten bei allen aktien.

Das war ein haeftiger tsunami in den letzten tagen, die kaeufer freuen sich jedoch. Fuer die jenigen die gehalten haben war das eine frustrierende zeit. Viele lecken sich nun die wunden.

Sind schon bastards die vom PPT, ich wuensche denen das selbe feeling.

Well, what can I do ??

Just wait for better times :))

Ciao tschonko

XEX

valueman

schau mal am anfang vom junior thread, dann weisst du wie viele ich beobachten und pflegen muss.Plus sieben senioren aber die sind einfach. Mit Ima machts du bestimmt nichts falsch meiner meinung.
Ich kann leider nichts machen nur die attacke aussitzen und hoffe der boden sinkt nicht weiter. Die 180 am HUI haben bis jetzt gehalten.
So preiswert wie die aktien jetzt sind habe ich sie seit langen nicht gesehen. Dann wollen wir mal hoffen das die aktien baldmoeglichst aus der Intensiv station rauskommen. Es ist ja ein wahnsinn was in den letzten tagen passiert ist,das cartel hat mit voller wucht zugeschlagen.
SSRI ist ja auch ein schnaeppchen, am besten kauft du beide
Scorpio ? ist ein ganz stichiger und bei dem kann ich dir keinen ratschlag geben, der ist bei mir eingefroren mit minus 58 und war ein disaster bis jetzt. Die juniors wurden ja heftig gepruegelt, diese Gangster vom PPT. Der Markt sieht nun ausgewaschen aus,ich bin optimistisch was naechste woche angeht.

Have a nice weekend, everybody !

Gruss

Eldorado

Super Valueman, die GSS haette ich dir auch verkaufen koennen,aber nur fuer 5 Dollar !

Dieses scheiss sterndel bis jetzt.

ASM.V & NPG.V hast du die schon ?,... ich glaube die werden am montag teurer.

Wie auch immer da sind ja so viele z.Zt.

Schade meine american express geht leider nicht zum einkaufen
Das limit ist wieder ueberzogen.

mfg

XEX

Gold Futures CoT

Adam Hamilton
Archives
April 16, 2005

With gold, silver, and gold stocks all in typical technical bottoming patterns, sentiment among precious-metals investors is understandably rotten. When prices feel low people feel bad. It is always this way near major interim bottoms.

While I receive countless e-mails laden with despair during times like these, one this week did a fantastic job of summing up how so many investors are feeling today. This gentleman, talking about gold stocks in particular, wrote to me

"I am so tired of losing money on these stocks, it seems like we've been in a bear market for the last 2 years with occasional rallies that seem to get weaker. How can guys like you figure that these stocks are going to someday do well? When do I just give up? I'm at the end of my rope with everything related to Wall Street. It makes me sick and seems impossible to make money. I'm so frustrated I don't know what else to say."

It is not difficult to detect emotional extremes in others, but it is hard to remain detached enough to see into our own hearts. One of the greatest struggles in any speculator's journey is the constant war to overcome one's own destructive emotions of greed and fear, euphoria and despair.

In my own evolution as a speculator, the most effective way I have found to keep myself on an even keel and strive for total emotional neutrality is to focus on the hard data. While our personal feelings about the markets are capricious and often misleading, the underlying data is absolute. It provides a solid intellectual reference point at which to anchor to weather out the storms of sentiment that periodically batter the markets.

http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton041605.html

Peter

5 Rand, ca 0.64 Euro, Durchschnittsverdienst ca. 4000 Rand netto bei gelernten fachkraeften. Putzfrau 3-4 liter Benzin pro stunde

Friday, April 15, 2005, 12:05:00 PM EST

Master of the Universe

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGA:

The one Federal Reserve Chairman who truly has acted as Master of the Economic Universe has Spoken.

In 1980 when this Gold Bull (as the Wall Street Journal called me at the time) took off his horns, Mr. Bleiberg, then editor of Barrons, wrote a piece calling me a pinhead because I characterized Chairman Volcker as a “class act.”

At a dinner two years later when my former partner was Superintendent of Banks for the State of New York, Chairman Volcker said, “Yes, you and Sinclair. I guess I really got the gold guys.” Our answer was quite simple. “Sorry, Mr. Chairman, but you did not get these gold guys. In fact, you did us a good turn because when we saw you coming we exited gold.”

Now Mr. Volcker is back repeating to you what I told you Mr. V had said somewhat privately many months ago. However, this time he has added an EXTREMELY important caveat.

I listened hard to Chairman Volcker without emotion and paid strict attention to every word in late 1979. I did not like in the least what I heard. However, I did not argue with it because it had been said and he had the power.

Gold soon fulfilled its price objective in a practical sense and fundamentally at $887.50. Gold had balanced the International Balance Sheet of the USA. That day and through the entire night Vincent and I sold all the gold we and our firm owned. Next morning gold opened down $150.

Will you listen to Chairman Volcker now or to the top callers, the star gazers and the agents of COT? Is financial TV your only access to knowledge?

What Chairman Volcker added when speaking of the need to put in place those POLICIES that have a historical record of turning the triple deficits towards surplus was a CRITCALLY IMPORTANT caveat.

“I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.”

The Chairman has spoken again saying to you EXACTLY the same words that form the foundation of my present position on the US dollar and Gold.

Sadly, I do not expect you, the gold advisors or many others to pay heed to the words of the best mind in finance.

Sadly, I expect you to continue throwing your gold insurance and good gold shares out.

Sadly, I expect the majority of you to be coned into being long the dollar and even short the Swiss and Canadian dollar.

I know those who know the future and they are not chartists or sooth sayers who might get it right once in a row.

Chairman Volcker is the intellectual powerhouse in finance.

Chairman Volcker has spoken but this time his invitation is to re-enter gold while shorting the dollar by owning other currencies of which my choice is the Swiss and Canadian.

This is the clear implication of this world if you have the ability to listen carefully, unemotionally and act accordingly regardless of whether the establishment considers you a pinhead.

Please, read the piece below, listen, drop your emotions and grasp your intellect.

washingtonpost.com
An Economy On Thin Ice
By Paul A. Volcker
Sunday, April 10, 2005; Page B07

The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India - with close to 40 percent of the world's population -- have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable.

Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks - call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.

We sit here absorbed in a debate about how to maintain Social Security - and, more important, Medicare - when the baby boomers retire. But right now, those same boomers are spending like there's no tomorrow. If we can believe the numbers, personal savings in the United States have practically disappeared.

To be sure, businesses have begun to rebuild their financial reserves. But in the space of a few years, the federal deficit has come to offset that source of national savings.

We are buying a lot of housing at rising prices, but home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing as much as a source of financial security. As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing.

What holds it all together is a massive and growing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don't consciously borrow or beg. We aren't even offering attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar.

Most of the time, it has been private capital that has freely flowed into our markets from abroad -- where better to invest in an uncertain world, the refrain has gone, than the United States?

More recently, we've become more dependent on foreign central banks, particularly in China and Japan and elsewhere in East Asia.

It's all quite comfortable for us. We fill our shops and our garages with goods from abroad, and the competition has been a powerful restraint on our internal prices. It's surely helped keep interest rates exceptionally low despite our vanishing savings and rapid growth.

And it's comfortable for our trading partners and for those supplying the capital. Some, such as China, depend heavily on our expanding domestic markets. And for the most part, the central banks of the emerging world have been willing to hold more and more dollars, which are, after all, the closest thing the world has to a truly international currency.

The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars.

I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.

It's not that it is so difficult intellectually to set out a scenario for a "soft landing" and sustained growth. There is a wide area of agreement among establishment economists about a textbook pretty picture: China and other continental Asian economies should permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate appreciation against the dollar. Japan and Europe should work promptly and aggressively toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively and speedily with structural obstacles to growth. And the United States, by some combination of measures, should forcibly increase its rate of internal saving, thereby reducing its import demand.

But can we, with any degree of confidence today, look forward to any one of these policies being put in place any time soon, much less a combination of all?

The answer is no. So I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase. At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets, with damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates. We had a taste of that in the stagflation of the 1970s -- a volatile and depressed dollar, inflationary pressures, a sudden increase in interest rates and a couple of big recessions.

The clear lesson I draw is that there is a high premium on doing what we can to minimize the risks and to ensure that there is time for orderly adjustment. I'm not suggesting anything unorthodox or arcane. What is required is a willingness to act now -- and next year, and the following year, and to act even when, on the surface, everything seems so placid and favorable.

What I am talking about really boils down to the oldest lesson of economic policy: a strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline. This is not a time for ideological intransigence and partisan posturing on the budget at the expense of the deficit rising still higher. Surely we would all be better off if other countries did their part. But their failures must not deflect us from what we can do, in our own self-interest.

A wise observer of the economic scene once commented that "what can be left to later, usually is -- and then, alas, it's too late." I don't want to let that stand as the epitaph of what has been an unparalleled period of success for the American economy and of enormous potential for the world at large.

The writer was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. This article is adapted from a speech in February at an economic summit sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

Seit 12am. NY time ist nun wieder das PPT beschaeftigt und haut nach der mittagspause wieder auf den HUI mit den selben tricks wie gestern.

Die haben heute laenger geschlafen weil sie gestern ueberstunden machten.

Darum fehlten sie am morgen, kann man ja verstehen.

Sie wollen den Goldbugs das wochenende vermiesen.

Gut, dann halt naechste Woche, nach dem IMF meeting wo eh nichts rauskommt.

Have a nice weekend

XEX

South African Government Issues Directive to DRDGold, Harmony and AngloGold Ashanti

Friday April 15, 12:10 pm ET

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 15, 2005 -- The South African Department of Water Affairs and Forestry today issued a directive, as an interim measure, ordering three mining groups, DRDGold, Harmony and AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU - News) to share equally the costs of pumping water at a number of shafts at Stilfontein Gold Mine and Buffelsfontein Gold Mines.

The directive follows the launch by AngloGold Ashanti earlier this week of an urgent interdict following the threat by DRDGold that it would cease funding the pumping of water at the shafts after placing its subsidiary Buffelsfontein into liquidation on March 22. DRDGold has been pumping water at Stilfontein under contract for several years. The consequences of a halting of pumping would have been the flooding of several Harmony shafts and AngloGold Ashanti mines in the Vaal River area.

The interdict cited as respondents Stilfontein, DRDGold, various DRDGold subsidiaries and the Ministers of Water Affairs, Minerals and Energy and Environmental Affairs. The purpose was to force the responsible mining companies to continue their pumping activities and the Ministers to take certain actions to ensure that these companies carry out their legal obligations.

It is believed that the costs covered by the directive total some R4.3m per month in total, though this figure is still to be verified.

AngloGold Ashanti is pleased that government accepted that the threat of environmental and economic catastrophe was sufficiently serious that it issued the directive.

We accept the interim arrangement designed to ensure that catastrophe is averted, knowing that the directive is an emergency measure and says nothing about parties' respective legal obligations into the future. However, we continue to maintain that the legal obligation to continue pumping rests with Stilfontein, DRDGold and/or its subsidiaries in liquidation.

The interdict application has been postponed, but will be pursued to completion to enable the court finally to determine legal liabilities and responsibilities. We believe that it would be untenable were a precedent to be set allowing mining companies to walk away from their environmental, health, safety and economic obligations.

We further believe, however, that all parties will have to participate in seeking a long-term solution to the management of underground water in the area. We will be willing participants in this.

Mandela fighting fake jail art

15/04/2005

A row between Nelson Mandela and a former lawyer is rocking South Africa and the art world as the anti-apartheid icon prepares to file lawuits for flogging forgeries.
Johannesburg - A row between Nelson Mandela and a former lawyer is rocking South Africa and the art world as the anti-apartheid icon prepares to file lawuits concerning forgeries of his paintings recalling his long years in prison.
Mandela's lawyer George Bizos, who had represented the world's most-famous political prisoner decades ago, said action would be brought against the elder statesman's ex-lawyer Ismail Ayob and his business associate, Ross Calder, in the coming days.

"We were thinking of next week but more information is coming in from all around the world, from art galleries and art buyers and it may take a little more time," said Bizos on Friday.

Mandela decided to collaborate with "an artist to produce limited edition paintings which he signed," Bizos said.

The works have been snapped up overseas by such celebrity buyers like United States television talk-show queen Oprah Winfrey, who forked out $200 000 (about R1.26m) for a set, according to press reports.

Es sieht so aus das der HUI im moment eine Bluttransfusion bekommt.
Hanibal hat gestern zu viel genommen.
Auch keine vorattacke vor opening ist ein gutes zeichen.
Der Dow hat probleme und CNBC zeigt mir gleich welche aktien der sogenannte Warren Buffet von Arabien, nicht verkaufen wird.
Danach Rick Sentelli, Sylvia Wadwa, und die anderen muppets.
Es ist schon komisch wie so viele leute sich von medien und deren zahlen beeinflussen bzw. gelenkt werden.

Cheers

XEX