Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    For more than a year now I have been commenting that the dollar has to decline in the face of rising interest rates for the gold price (in US dollars) to sustain a meaningful rally. Every time I make that comment, someone points out that rising interest rates typically result in stronger currencies. Therefore, why would the dollar fall if interest rates are rising?


    History repeats, but never exactly. While there are often precedents for current situations the circumstances are rarely identical, so we have to be careful when we make assumptions based on past experiences or events.


    It is true that higher interest rates typically lead to stronger currencies, but the US balance sheet, income statement and dollar are in uncharted waters and never has globalization been as prevalent as it is now. Japan owns roughly seven hundred billion dollars worth of US Treasury securities and China has in the order of two hundred billion dollars.


    Were it not for Japan and China, the US dollar would be trading a lot lower than where it is today. During the past decade the United States has racked up enormous trade deficits with those two countries. Under normal circumstances the net amount of dollars (trade deficit) paid to foreign corporations would be sold on foreign exchange markets. As the trade deficit widens, ever more dollars are sold, putting pressure on the dollar to decline. Eventually the weakening dollar would cause the prices of imported goods to rise and the rising costs of imports would ameliorate the trade deficit. This is the free market's natural balancing system.


    But Japan and China wanted to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Put another way, they wanted to prevent the dollar from falling in response to the rising trade deficit. So instead of selling the excess dollars into the foreign exchange markets they used them to buy US Treasuries. This kept the dollars out of the foreign exchange markets and helped the US finance its budget deficits.


    It was a win-win situation -- or so it seemed. The US could spend, and spend, and spend... and Japan and China would send their savings over to finance the binge. Now, however, the situation has gotten so out of hand that there is mounting pressure on China to let its currency, the renminbi, float against the dollar.


    Calling for a stronger renminbi is in essence the same as calling for a weaker dollar. Now let's go back to the mechanism that kept the renminbi, and the Japanese yen, from rising against the dollar: excess dollars were invested in US Treasuries instead of being sold into the foreign exchange markets.


    If the Japanese and Chinese are to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will start selling more dollars into the foreign exchange markets and that means they will have less dollars to invest in US Treasuries.


    This is not trivial matter. Between January and November last year, Japan and China bought about thirty percent of all the new Treasury securities the United States issued. Even a small decline in the amount of US Treasury purchases by Japan and China could have a dramatic effect on US interest rates.


    If the demand for US Treasury securities (bonds) declines then bond prices are likely to decline as well. US interest rates are determined by US bond prices: if bond prices fall, interest rates rise. Therefore a decline in demand for US Treasuries from Japan and China means an increase in interest rates for the US.


    Now let's go back to the free market mechanism again. If Japan and China allow their currencies to appreciate against the dollar it also means that they will sell more of the dollars that are accumulating from the US trade deficit into the foreign exchange markets. This additional dollar-supply will result in the renminbi and yen strengthening, and the dollar weakening. It is precisely what the US and Europe are asking China to do.


    So a revaluation of the renminbi will cause more dollars to be sold (downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate) and less US Treasury securities to be purchased (downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on interest rates). Also, if China lets its currency appreciate then I doubt that Japan will continue to try and support the dollar by itself. So the same goes for Japan.


    Now, we can argue for days and weeks about how severe the dollar decline will be, how high interest rates will go, what impact that will have on the US economy and, by extension on the global economy. The bottom line is that China will most likely allow its currency to rise this year; Japan will follow suit. That is the same as saying the dollar will continue to decline only this time against the Asian currencies as opposed to the euro and other Western currencies. And, as you saw, the decline in the dollar will occur simultaneously with rising US interest rates.


    As a result the gold price, in US dollars, will continue to rise, punctuated perhaps by talk of IMF gold sales and other miscellaneous events.


    This rise in the gold price, as has been the case for the past three years, is mostly a dollar phenomenon. It's a bear market in the dollar, not a bull market in gold.


    Paul van Eeden

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    Harmony - Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold Fields


    HAPSHarmony - Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold FieldsmergerHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)(Registration number 1950/038232/06)Share code: HAR ISIN: ZAE000015228("Harmony")NEWS RELEASE FROM HARMONY11 February 2005Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold Fields mergerHarmony has today received notice from the Competition Commission that it isrecommending approval for Harmony"s proposed merger with Gold Fields to theCompetition Tribunal. The recommendation comes with a condition that no morethan 1500 employees at a managerial or supervisory level be retrenched as aresult of the proposed merger.Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel said he was pleased that the recommendationhad come through within the regulated time period. "We are comfortable with theprinciple behind the condition that the Competition Commission has recommendedsince we"ve said all along that no more than 1500 retrenchments at a managerialor supervisory level were envisaged as part of the cost savings and synergies weplan to extract from Gold Fields" operations. We are now approaching the finalhurdle in our plans to merge Harmony and Gold Fields. We remain convinced that amerger between the two companies will deliver a value proposition to allstakeholders, i.e. shareholders, employees and the various communities in whichwe will be operating."According to the Competition Act of 1998, the Competition Tribunal is requiredto set a date for a pre-hearing or a hearing within ten business days ofreferral by the Competition Commission.ENDS

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    11 February 2005



    Dear (Eldo)


    RUMOURS of my demise are not only exaggerated, but probably just wishful thinking. Unfortunately for Gold Fields management, I am not going to go away and Harmony is not going to withdraw its offer for Gold Fields. The only thing we plan to do with our 11,5% stake in Gold Fields is to increase it, whether under the subsequent offer or gradually over time until we acquire control of Gold Fields. And Norilsk has confirmed that the only thing it plans to do with its support for the spirit and business logic of our subsequent offer is to reaffirm it.


    Harmony’s shareholders gave us an overwhelming 87% mandate to pursue the proposed merger as an extension and logical next step in the strategic direction that has served our shareholders and the South African gold-mining industry well over the past 10 years. Though we are “no-frills” mine operators, we have phones and we know that our shareholders still believe in the compelling business logic of the formation of the merged company and a future full of possibilities overwhelming the fractious present.


    For the South African gold-mining industry, consolidation is important to create synergies, eliminate wasteful duplication and extend mine lives. Through reinvestment of the wealth thus created, we can continue to maintain a sufficient pipeline of new projects, create thousands of shaft-based jobs and extend the profitable life of this 120-year-old foundation of SA’s prosperity.


    So while Gold Fields management vainly sought a rerating by attempting to list its assets overseas (where risk is on the rise), we believe a continuation of the listing in SA for all of the assets of the combined companies is a much surer path to sustainable growth and a well-deserved rerating.


    Just as it took Harmony to identify the value destruction inherent in the failed IAMGOLD transaction (which received only 23% support — a shareholder revolt if ever there was one), Harmony’s track record shows that it will be equally competent to identify opportunities to enhance and extract value for Gold Fields shareholders through initiatives including cutting unnecessary costs and consolidating assets. This is particularly important now Gold Fields management finds itself in a strategic vacuum.


    The merged company will:


    · Be value-creating. The merger will revitalise mature assets and rescue current replacement projects while finding significant cost savings, particularly important in the face of continuing rand strength.


    · Have a fully integrated portfolio of assets from exploration to beneficiation.


    · Be less vulnerable to the effect of rand fluctuation, while still providing exciting leverage to increases in the gold price.


    · Be a global benchmark for gold production, with geographic diversity and increased dollar-denominated earnings.


    · Be an unashamedly South African-domiciled national champion, building a global benchmark by extending the viability and competitiveness of the merged assets, and at the same time constructing an attractive equity proposition with critical mass for fund managers around the world.


    In two public letters to Gold Fields management, I have suggested that we sit down to decide how best to put our two companies together to achieve the vision laid out above for our employees, shareholders, the South African fiscus and the image of SA as an investment destination. Norilsk also called for a meeting — in Moscow — to encourage Gold Fields to recommend the merger.


    Rather than igniting a discussion about how best to accommodate the natural, inevitable and desirable consolidation in the South African gold-mining industry, where Harmony has played an integral role, my appeals have resulted in frivolous and expensive court challenges and what appears to be sly innuendo in the form of leaks to hedge funds and arbitrageurs, planted market rumours of increases to the subsequent offer, and financially illiterate calculations of value destruction.


    In fact, the combined market capitalisation of Harmony and Gold Fields, two unhedged South African gold producers fully exposed to fluctuations in the rand-dollar exchange rate, has declined only 6% relative to that of the hedged AngloGold Ashanti, which has half of its production offshore. This illustrates that any so-called value destruction in our share prices is mainly due to macroeconomic circumstances and not to the bid.


    Indeed, Gold Fields’ share price is inflated. Examination of the history of the behaviour of share prices in bid situations all over the world shows that were Gold Fields management to get its wish for our subsequent offer to go away, Gold Fields shareholders would see a drop in their share price equivalent to the subsequent offer premium.


    With no discernible new direction and their previous stated strategy in tatters, Gold Fields management should embrace our subsequent offer rather than impose conditions or reject outright the wishes of their two largest shareholders: Harmony and Norilsk.


    Experience indicates that significant reduction in layers and numbers of managers not only saves costs, but, more importantly, is the first step to empowering the people in the production engine room of the organisation. Our tested systems, belief in people’s abilities and our proven implementation strategies give me confidence in the future of a Harmony combined with Gold Fields.


    This has always been a matter for shareholders to decide. The best way to accommodate shareholder democracy is to provide information, performance records and vision.


    Our two sets of shareholders will be the final arbiters in the debate about what is best for our companies.



    Bernard Swanepoel


    Chief Executive


    Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    @patrone


    danke,ich kenne mich dort sehr gut aus.
    Habe schon genug thai gold gekauft,damals bei 265 Dollars.
    Habe nicht viel zeit in bkk, muss mal wieder ins nana und soi cowboy :D
    Sting Ray leder habe ich noch nicht , kann man damit zustechen oder ist das ein neuer verhueterlie ?

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Thanks Ulfur ! :))




    How to Enjoy Life


    1. Pursue Achievable Goals


    2. Keep genuine smiles.


    3. Share with others


    4. Help thy neighbors


    5. Maintain youthful spirit


    6. Get along with the rich, the poor,
    the beautiful and the ugly.


    7. Keep cool under pressure


    8. Lighten the atmosphere with humor.


    9. Forgive the annoyance of others


    10. Have a few pals


    11. Cooperate and reap greater rewards


    12..... Treasure every moment with your loved ones.


    13. Have high confidence in yourself


    14..... Respect the disadvantaged


    15. Indulge yourself occasionally


    16. Surf the net at leisure


    17. Take calculated risks


    18. Understand "money isn't everything."


    19. Have good thoughts about others.


    and remember.... to Have a Nice Day! ;)

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    GO GATA GO:


    Nice to have some fun for a change. People who know me (like bro Tim) have to put up with me whistling the Princeton fight song (Hold That Tiger), sort of one I guess, when I am in a fun mood because the markets have surprisingly gone my way. Two times out of three when I blurt out that tune it is a top. Oh well.


    One day does not make a market, yet at least we have some sanity back for one trading session. Yet, it was the same drill when gold wanted to explode after going up $4 on the day. THE GOLD CARTEL, led by Deutsche Bank JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, sold and sold to dampen any serious excitement. And, of course, the $6 Rule reigned again as the high for the trading session was up $5.80. In light of what other commodities did and the dollar falling, the recovery move was modest at best.


    Silver was another matter. For a couple of weeks MIDAS has touted how explosive silver was. Nothing happened except it drifted off. I reported that the biggest player on the floor, Morgan Stanley, was ravingly bullish. Then I got the goofy comment two days ago VIA my STALKER source how the big physical players in London told him they were going to teach the paper guys on the Comex a lesson. These were the same characters who were maligning the Comex shorts for suppressing the price while demand was so strong in London. As I previously stated, what was sent my way made no sense. So much so I asked my contact to double check the plan of these dealers with a second phone call.


    Boy, did it create a commotion. A number of savvy traders asked me whether it was a setup because of the high Café circulation. At the time I said perhaps. Based on today’s action I say most certainly, OR this particular STALKER input (from his London silver source, not the gold sources about the Chinese buying, etc.) was just off the wall. Then again, the word to me was they were going to attack in the near future. To be fair maybe they were waiting for a rally such as this to pounce? We shall see.


    Regardless, the score for the day is Morgan Stanley 1, Mahendra 1, Stalker silver bullion dealer source 0.


    Word to me this morning from a savvy bullion dealer is the hedge funds are all over silver and plan to take it to $8. There are a number of people in our camp who believe silver is going to lead gold on the way up because its fundamentals are so much stronger. One thing for sure…if my information is correct that the Chinese have tied up 75% of this year’s silver production, the price must go bonkers. No way around it. Mahendra called today. He is as bullish on silver as ever.


    The silver open interest fell 1936 contracts to 93,408.


    The gold open interest fell 1862 contracts to 253,548.


    Neither gold or silver left a gap to fill below - a nice technical plus.

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Ich bin mit den heutigen tag zufrieden und meine aktien haben sich wieder erholt das ich den schnorchel nun aus dem mund nehmen kann.
    Mal schaun wie es weiter geht, zeit wird es ja das gold und silber wieder hoch kommt. Hoffentlich hat es nur tief luft geholt und arbeitet sich wieder,natuerlich mit counter attacks wieder auf den wert wo es gefallen ist. In wenigen tagen/wochen werden wir sehen wer nun die neuen schlaege austeilt. Nur nicht den tag vor dem abend loben, jedenfalls sieht es besser aus. Ich moechte mich erstmal bedanken fuer die folgenden tips von euch. Ihr habt mir ebenfalls neue pferde vorgestellt in diesen thread:


    DEZ CSG.TO QRL.TO PMU.TO RBI.TO RDV.TO PLL.V TWG.TO


    Sobald ich kann $$ :D, werde ich dort auch Anleger.
    Die tips von frr sind auch nicht schlecht aber es ist sehr wenig volumen um momentan einzusteigen. Ich behalte sie im Auge.


    Ich bin weg vom 16 Feb - 16 Maerz, ab ins land of smile, vielleicht laueft mir der vermisste Thai guru dort ueber den weg.
    Ich schreibe noch bis zum abflug und hoffe der boden haelt wenn ich abhebe waerend ich mich mit anderen dingen :D dort beschaeftige. Ich schau mal hin und wieder ins forum bei irgend einen internet cafe. Wir werden alle noch sehen was aus den ponies in diesen thread wird.
    Ich bleibe positiv und weiss die konsolidierungen und merger werden weiter gehen.Irgendwann gibt es dann nur mehr 5 grosse wie bei den Oilfirmen und die brauchen viele pony zum ueberleben. Und irgenwann wird auch produziert wenn der preis und nachfrage stimmt.
    Wie am Anfang gesagt es wird ein jahr der juniors und bald kommen die besten ponies auf dem radarschirm der anleger and investment funds.
    That's what I believe !


    Good luck guys ;) Go gold go, go silver go !! :)


    Ps:


    Der markt sollte nun ausgewaschen sein und viele aktien gingen von den schwachen haenden in die starken ueber. Viele mussten kapitulieren und aergern sich wenn es nun wieder aufwaerts geht.


    Keep the faith, Cowboys ! Its a rough ride,alway be one with juniors and seniors like Dis- Harmony.



    Regards


    Eldorado

  • Juniors aus Kanada

    Think Sino or have some vino, cowboys ! :D


    SINO SILVER CORP. SIGNS DEFINITIVE CONTRACT TO ACQUIRE A 60% INTEREST IN SINO-TOP



    February 10, 2005


    VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA: SINO SILVER CORP. (OTCBB: SSLV) is pleased to announce that subsequent to the previously signed Memorandum of Understanding, a definitive Joint Venture Contract has been signed with Sino-Top Resources & Technologies, Ltd. (â?oSino-Topâ?), its shareholders and two of three affiliated parties (with such third partyâ?Ts signature to be obtained) for the acquisition by Sino Silver of a 60% equity interest in Sino-Top. All necessary applications and documents have been submitted to the Chinese authorities for approval of the acquisition. Sino-Top has exploratory rights in four properties located in the Erbaohuo Silver District, Inner Mongolia, China, as well as the right to acquire exploratory and mining rights in seven additional properties in the same region.



    Sino Silver will contribute to Sino-Top a total of $1 million for its 60% equity interest, with $500,000 due at closing and the balance to be paid over 2 years. Sino Silver previously placed $100,000 of the closing amount in escrow. The additional seven properties can be acquired upon the contribution to Sino-Top by Sino Silver of an additional $2 million over a two year period.



    The Joint Venture Contract provides for a five member Board of Directors, with three members appointed by Sino Silver. The Joint Venture Contract contains standard representations and warranties and closing is subject to a number of conditions, including Chinese government approval. Government approval is expected shortly but cannot be assured.



    Sino Silver is also taking steps necessary to secure adequate financing to consummate the Sino-Top acquisition and provide short-term working capital.





    Ian G. Park, Chairman & President


    SINO SILVER CORP. (http://www.SinoSilver.com)