Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI
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Es gab mal einen Song:
"It´s all over now"
Die Platte kann der DJ schon mal raussuchen.
Ich denke sowohl HAR als auch GFI- Aktionäre können gut darauf tanzen.
gogh
REUTERS 01.02.05
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Norilsk move signals collapse of Harmony bid
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Tue February 1, 2005 4:08 PM GMT+02:00JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Harmony Gold's hostile bid for Gold Fields is terminally ill, signalled by Russian Norilsk Nickel's reluctance unconditionally to tender its Gold Fields stake, fund managers and analysts say.
Sixth biggest gold producer Harmony, which launched its all-share bid in October, said on Tuesday Norilsk would not have to fulfill its vow to hand over its 20-percent Gold Fields stake if Harmony failed to get a majority of its rival.
"I think Harmony's offer is pretty much dead in the water. They have two choices, they either have to to abandon it or increase it and try to pursue it," an analyst said.
Harmony, seeking to create the world's top-ranking gold company by buying number four Gold Fields, got 11.5 percent of Gold Fields in the first stage of its offer, but received virtually no shares in the second stage as the bid value tumbled.
"I think the thing is probably over, I can't see them getting 30 percent excluding Norilsk," said a fund manager who holds Gold Fields shares, but declined to be named.
Norilsk had signed an "irrevocable agreement" to sell its stake to Harmony, but agreed on a "clarification" after Harmony scrapped a condition that it needed a majority of Gold Fields.
"For me it's a negative, because if Norilsk were so sure the bid was going to succeed they would just tender," said Patrice Rassou, fund manager at Old Mutual Asset Managers, which owns around five percent of Gold Fields.
"I don't think Harmony will get the 50 percent, so in a way Norilsk is saying they would rather have Gold Fields (shares) than Harmony."
Norilsk has already succeeded in one of its main objectives when it teamed up with Harmony by helping shoot down Gold Fields proposed merger with Canada's Iamgold in December, analysts said.
Now that the value of Harmony's bid has tumbled by around 40 percent, Norilsk would rather hold on to its stake and seek to merge its gold assets with those of Gold Fields, they added.
HARMONY RESISTS HIGHER OFFER
Harmony, which posts second quarter results on Thursday, is in a fix after the value of its bid slid by around $3.5 billion since it was launched to around $5.1 billion on Tuesday.
The offer is under water by around seven percent, meaning investors would get more for their Gold Fields shares by selling them on the open market then tendering them to Harmony.
Rassou reiterated he would need a much higher offer to tender his Gold Fields stake to Harmony, joining other shareholders calling for a sweetener.
But loss-making Harmony can ill afford one and last week, Harmony's biggest shareholder African Rainbow Minerals said it would oppose any higher bid.
Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel told Reuters on Monday the offer -- which was extended until March 18 awaiting approval from competition authorities -- was full and fair, and there was no reason to increase it.
He also said the low level of acceptances was not surprising since most shareholders decide at the very last minute whether to accept takeover offers.
If Harmony fails to get a majority of Gold Fields and Norilsk does not tender its stake, it will be left with a sizeable minority stake.
Analysts said the best path for Harmony would be to sell the shares, since it could use the cash after bleeding red ink for five quarters due to a strong rand cutting export income and making many of its mines uneconomical.
This would be the equivalent of an expensive rights issue, analysts said.
But Rassou said such a sale on the open market might be difficult since it would depress the price.
"If the market knows there's an overhang, then I don't know how they'll realise the stake, it's a bit tricky for them," he said.
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Right on bro'
http://www.reuters.co.za/local…Key=en_ZA&storyID=7498992
Norilsks Rolle bleibt einigermassen im Dunklen. Fest steht die russische ZB hat 2004 40T Gold gekauft. Wird der Rubel auch mal wieder eine Währung, wie die D-Mark es einmal war? Und war Norilsk ein Testfall um zu sehen wieweit man die globale Goldproduktion in die kleinen Putinhändchen bekommen könne?
Immerhin, hat hier die Vernunft gesiegt. Ähnlich, wenn auch nicht wirklich zu vergleichen ist der läppische Versuch von der kaputten Glamis zu sehen Goldcorp und Wheaton einzusacken. - pathetisch!
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gogh, frr,
aber definitiv ist es noch nicht aus, oder?
Kann mich noch nicht hundertpro freuen.GG und WHT passen gut zusammen. Manche stört da die Verwässerung
wegen WHT-Kupfer, mich nicht.
Glamis halte ich nicht für kaputt, aber die hauen die schöne GG zusammen. GG CEO weiß auch, was sache ist, der hält Aktien von 100 M
von seiner Fa.Ich hab WHT noch vor Übernahmeangebot von GG getauscht in GG, Glamis hatte ich auch, GFI hab ich.
Wenn der GG und WHT klappt, steht noch heuer die nächste Übernahme an, das wird noch ein richtig schönes Ding.
Grüße tschonko
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Bin mal auf die zahlen gespannt !
Dear
Your note dated 2 January 2005 refers.
Please accept my apologies for my delayed reply as the quarterly results preparation took top priority over the last couple of days.
We are sorry to hear about what happened to you recently. We fortunately, and I suppose unfortunately, live in South Africa by choice, and as a result have to deal with issues such as the one you mentioned.
I personally, however, love the place, and even after travelling the world, still come back because its home and the only country that I would ever want to live in.
Regarding Harmony. As things change, and cycles change, we hope to offer you the investment case that we have in the past. This will materialise, there is no doubt about it.
Lastly, we did see the little character that Gold Fields has developed. May I suggest taking time at 12:00 noon JHB time tomorrow to listen to Bernard Swanepoel present the company’s results for the quarter ended December 2004. He will then give feedback on a number of issues which I am sure will be meaningful to an informed individual such as yourself.
Best wishes,
Ferdi Dippenaar
Marketing DieectorHarmony Gold Mining Co Ltd
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"Bin mal auf die zahlen gespannt "
Wieso gespannt?
Der gezeigt Quartalsverlust wird etwas größer sein als im letzten Quartal.
Wird ein kleinerer Verlust gezeigt, wurde an der GuV gedreht. Das
wäre ein schlechtes Zeichen.
Wird ein deutlich größerer Verlust gezeigt, wäre das ein Hinweis
auf ernsthafte Maßnahmen. Also gut.
Aber vor allem vor lauter Bäumen den Wald sehen! HAR ist im Kern gesund.
Regards
gogh -
Auf die minus zahlen die sie bekannt geben !!! 
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BUSINESS DAY vom 03.02.2005
Harsh warning for Gold Fields bosses
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GOLD Fields bosses yesterday received a harsh warning from rival Harmony that they would have no future in a merged company if Harmony took over Gold Fields.
Harmony yesterday outlined a reorganisation of the company's management team, reflecting the strain CE Bernard Swanepoel and his existing lean-and-mean team had endured during the bid drama .
The new structure will bolster support for Swanepoel by providing two experienced right-hand men.
"However, nowhere does there appear to be a gap or two for a Gold Fields executive, if Harmony fulfils its ambition of taking over the rival," said a local mining analyst.
Another observer said that if Harmony's takeover bid was in trouble, as hinted by Gold fields , "this is less a management reshuffle and more a matter of shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic".
Gold Fields said this week Harmony's hostile bid was "under water" and doomed with its current offer being worth considerably less than Gold Fields' market price.
Harmony said it was redeploying top executives "to oversee the company's growth strategy".
Swanepoel said that should he get competition authorities' nod to implement the proposed merger "the realignment will position Harmony to extract the value promised to shareholders and successfully integrate Gold Fields assets".
"These appointments are in line with our strategic goal to control Gold Fields.
"Bolstering the team in this manner will ensure that we obtain maximum value from our investment, devote appropriate and necessary focus and ensure we have the capacity to run assets of the combined company."
He said he wanted to free up his time "to be responsible to my employees, shareholders and board to deliver what we know we can".
Executive d irectors Ferdi Dippenaar and Ted Grobicki, who have acted as Harmony's chief spin doctor and head of Australian operations respectively, will in future "work alongside Swanepoel".
Dippenaar's investor relations role "will be filled by a new senior appointment in due course". Gold Fields' chief spin doctor, Willie Jacobsz, is said to have little hope of making the short list for the post.
Graham Briggs, Harmony country manager in Papua New Guinea, will be CE of Harmony Australia; Nomfundo Qangule will remain financial director; Philip Kotze, Peter Steenkamp and Bob Atkinson will be operations directors for longlife, leveraged and growth-asset portfolios respectively.
Meanwhile, Gold Fields is believed to be trying to strike a deal with main shareholder Norils k Nickel , which had earlier pledged its 20% Gold Fields stake to Harmony .
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Cents sind wohl Rand-Cents
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dann in €., py mal Daumen:
Quartalsverlust gemeldet knapp 0,10€ (mit 100% Lügenzuschlag 0,20€)gogh
Harmony reports loss in earnings
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World number six gold miner Harmony Gold (HAR) on Thursday announced it saw a loss per share for the December quarter of 80 cents from a loss in the September quarter of 106 cents.
At the headline level, Harmony saw a loss per share of 88 cents in the December quarter from 110 cents in the September quarter.
Harmony also announced that it wouldn't be paying an interim dividend, after paying a dividend per share of 40 cents for the half-year to December 2003.
The group also said that its 11.5% stake in Gold Fields (GFI) was worth about 3.8 billion rand. Harmony is currently bidding to merge with Gold Fields to create the world's largest gold miner.
Harmony's December gold output was 24,604 kilograms, down 5% from 25,822 kilograms in the September quarter.
Harmony put its cash operation profit at 163 million rand for the December quarter, up 23% from 133 million rand in the September quarter.
Cash operating costs from Harmony's South African operations rose to 79,222 rand per kilogram from R78,897/kg in the September quarter. Cash operating profit increased to 97.367 million rand in the December quarter from 96.066 million rand in the September quarter.
"Harmony today consists of a combination of assets, a grouping consisting of operating mines which, in terms of its low cash cost profile compares with the best in the South African industry and some ore bodies which continue to offer optionality and leverage to a higher rand per kilogram gold price scenario," Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel said.
"The same applies to Gold Fields if the shafts are evaluated on a stand alone profitability basis. This supports our compelling logic for the merging of the two companies to create the world's largest gold producer with a low cash cost profile, but with significant optionality that comes with its South African exposure. A true value proposition to all stakeholders, ie shareholders, employees and communities," Swanepoel added.
I-Net Bridge -
Nicht mal eine Dividende,nach dem Abwurf !
Da muss am Rand gedreht werden oder der Sattel wird gespannt.
So ein scheiss Gaul bis jetzt, schlechter kann es nicht mehr werden.
Oder ???? Mit der Rio Tinto,haette ich eine !
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Swanepoel´s Tage gezählt? Institutionelle fordern seinen Skalp
Swiny bereit, sich ins eigne Schwert zu stürzen, wenn Übernahme scheitert.
Keine Gefangenen! Swanepoels Ego: Verliere Geld, aber ja nicht das Gesicht.
Nur große Institutionelle könnten die Operation durchführen.
Ferdi und Grobi könnten mit über die Wupper gehen.Harmony Gold CE's days are numbered
By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '04-FEB-05 11:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Bernard Swanepoel will not be chief executive of Harmony Gold for very much longer. That is if the institutions that have had enough of the massive value destruction wreaked by his ill-conceived hostile bid for Gold Fields have their way. According to the instigator, institutional investors with 45 percent of Harmony’s shares want Swanepoel’s scalp.
A hostile take-over bid is the commercial version of a war where no prisoners are taken, and the victor sweeps the whole caboodle. And in Harmony Gold’s hostile bid for Gold Fields, Swanepoel, loyal to the principles if nothing else, has indicated that he is prepared to fall on his sword if the bid fails.
There will be no believable face saver in this case.
In the current circumstances, there appears to be agreement on only one issue: the value destruction in the all-paper bid has been appalling and needs to be cauterised, not just staunched. However, Swanepoel’s ego stands in the way. It is the old attiude: Lose money, not face.
It is only large institutional shareholders that have the power to administer the necessary surgery. But, given the rules of war, no institutional shareholder worth its salt would go on the record and confirm that a plan is underway to assemble institutional votes on the bid, and call for Swanepoel to step down.
Mineweb reliably understands that the informal massing of shareholders in Harmony now totals around 45 percent of its issued share capital. Despite the value destruction, the two stocks are still worth plenty enough: Gold Fields currently carries a market capitalisation of $5.5 billion; Harmony is worth just over half of that.
However, it is all too simple to say that Harmony’s stock price is down 34,6 percent (in rand terms) since it announced the bid on October 18, and that Gold Fields is down 26 percent. Other objective factors have been in that cocktail, not least the gold prices, currency movements and company results.
The systematic value destruction, isolated in its effect to Harmony and Gold Fields, has flowed from the uncertainty surrounding the bid (not least on a ruling from South African competition authorities, anticipated next month), Swanepoel’s obduracy, and perhaps greatest of all, the market’s interpretation of the workings of the offer.
As an example, RBC Capital Markets recently downgraded its recommendation on Gold Fields, but of more interest, cut its a 12-month target price for Gold Fields to $9,33 a share, from $14,85 (the stock is currently trading at $11,22). While Georges Lequime of RBC Capital Markets had no worries over operating issues at Gold Fields, he voiced concerns over the “uncertainty with regard to the outcome of the Gold Fields takeover bid, as well as the growing financial cost.” This, said RBC Capital markets, has caused investors to remain on the sidelines; there was a distinct possibility that the merger will not be consummated. Indeed, ironically, Gold Fields’s stock price was being “heavily supported by the deal tension.”
The meaning of the latter comment is hardly obscure: each day, it seems, there is another rumour that Harmony will increase its all-paper bid for Gold Fields. Those who believe the rumours naturally buy more Gold Fields, and sell down Harmony. Such has been the rumour mongering that it would be no surprise were the relevant authorities to announce an investigation into trades in the two stocks.
Then, of course, there has been the hundreds of millions in fees, etc., earned to date by the six investment banks (and a number of law firms) retained by the two warring gold companies. Then there is the issue of gold price and currency; as one analyst put it: “We believe that the fundamental problem with the Harmony bid is that they are offering Gold Fields shareholders a higher risk proposition, albeit very attractively priced, while the market is becoming progressively more risk averse in a strong rand environment.”
Harmony itself has sensed that Swanepoel’s case itself is terminal. Earlier this week, Harmony announced a management realignment, “repositioning key managers to oversee the company's growth strategy.” Executive directors Ferdi Dippenaar and Ted Grobicki would work along-side Swanepoel, said the announcement.
They are unlikely to be working alongside him unless, that is, they are also about to walk the plank.
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/mining_finance/410766.htm -
nett, was hier für Gerüchte gestreut werden. Würd mich nicht wundern, wenn da ein paar von Gold Fields dahinterstecken. Das wird in nächster Zeit vermehrt passieren. Patiences pay. In diesem Monat oder nächsten erwarte ich eine Zinssekung in Südafrika, dann gehts los bei Harmony
gruss
steph -
Vielleicht habt ihr den schon gelesen ?
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=18
TOP STORY
Chances of rate cut at 60 percent
The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in interest rates by the South African Reserve Bank stands at about 60 percent, according to an economist.No change in rates expected
Western Areas:
http://business.iafrica.com/news/507273.htmGFI/HMY:
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Bzgl. Rand:
http://www.faz.net/s/RubE4DDED…Tpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html
Schauen wir mal was am 10. Februar passiert am Kap.
Gestern ist bei mir ein vor einigen Wochen eigentlich als Abstauberlimit gesetzter Harmony-Kauf bei 6 Euro aufgegangen.
Mittel bis langfristig sehe ich den Rand aus fundamentaler Sicht auf jeden Fall schwächer. Kurzfristig spielt hier immer die Markspsychologie eine entscheidende Rolle und die spricht eigentlich (noch) gegen eine Rand-Schwäche. Wenn alle auf ein Ereignis (Schwächerer Rand) warten tritt dies selten ein. Erst wenn sich die Marktteilnehmer mit einem dauerhaft hohen Rand "abfinden" wird sich etwas bewegen, aber dann geht es schnell.
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Fresh from being turfed out of Zimbabwe, trade union Cosatu is now putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates today.
The labour union argues that a strong rand has led to a strong inflow of short-run capital, which has boosted the rand at the cost of exports and employment. (so schnell wie es reingekommen ist kann es wieder raus gehen !)
Wir spueren hier nichts vom starken Rand und bezahlen importierte gueter noch zum alten wechselkurs,nebenbei bemerkt. Cosatu is calling for a 100 basis point cut in rates later today. Analysts say such a cut would see the rand test R6.40 to the dollar.
Rand in for a rough ride ? :
http://www.finance24.com/Finan…8,1518-21_1660279,00.htmlhttp://www.finance24.com/Finan…,,1518-25_1660413,00.html
GFI/HMY:
http://www.finance24.com/Finan…,,1518-24_1659851,00.html -
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das gibts doch echt nicht. Die machen doch ihren ganzen Export kaputt !!!
bin aber trotzdem zuversichtlich, dass es in den nä. Monaten klappen wird. Irgendwann muss er runter !!!
gruss
tobi -
11 February 2005
Dear (Eldo)
RUMOURS of my demise are not only exaggerated, but probably just wishful thinking. Unfortunately for Gold Fields management, I am not going to go away and Harmony is not going to withdraw its offer for Gold Fields. The only thing we plan to do with our 11,5% stake in Gold Fields is to increase it, whether under the subsequent offer or gradually over time until we acquire control of Gold Fields. And Norilsk has confirmed that the only thing it plans to do with its support for the spirit and business logic of our subsequent offer is to reaffirm it.
Harmony’s shareholders gave us an overwhelming 87% mandate to pursue the proposed merger as an extension and logical next step in the strategic direction that has served our shareholders and the South African gold-mining industry well over the past 10 years. Though we are “no-frills” mine operators, we have phones and we know that our shareholders still believe in the compelling business logic of the formation of the merged company and a future full of possibilities overwhelming the fractious present.
For the South African gold-mining industry, consolidation is important to create synergies, eliminate wasteful duplication and extend mine lives. Through reinvestment of the wealth thus created, we can continue to maintain a sufficient pipeline of new projects, create thousands of shaft-based jobs and extend the profitable life of this 120-year-old foundation of SA’s prosperity.
So while Gold Fields management vainly sought a rerating by attempting to list its assets overseas (where risk is on the rise), we believe a continuation of the listing in SA for all of the assets of the combined companies is a much surer path to sustainable growth and a well-deserved rerating.
Just as it took Harmony to identify the value destruction inherent in the failed IAMGOLD transaction (which received only 23% support — a shareholder revolt if ever there was one), Harmony’s track record shows that it will be equally competent to identify opportunities to enhance and extract value for Gold Fields shareholders through initiatives including cutting unnecessary costs and consolidating assets. This is particularly important now Gold Fields management finds itself in a strategic vacuum.
The merged company will:
· Be value-creating. The merger will revitalise mature assets and rescue current replacement projects while finding significant cost savings, particularly important in the face of continuing rand strength.
· Have a fully integrated portfolio of assets from exploration to beneficiation.
· Be less vulnerable to the effect of rand fluctuation, while still providing exciting leverage to increases in the gold price.
· Be a global benchmark for gold production, with geographic diversity and increased dollar-denominated earnings.
· Be an unashamedly South African-domiciled national champion, building a global benchmark by extending the viability and competitiveness of the merged assets, and at the same time constructing an attractive equity proposition with critical mass for fund managers around the world.
In two public letters to Gold Fields management, I have suggested that we sit down to decide how best to put our two companies together to achieve the vision laid out above for our employees, shareholders, the South African fiscus and the image of SA as an investment destination. Norilsk also called for a meeting — in Moscow — to encourage Gold Fields to recommend the merger.
Rather than igniting a discussion about how best to accommodate the natural, inevitable and desirable consolidation in the South African gold-mining industry, where Harmony has played an integral role, my appeals have resulted in frivolous and expensive court challenges and what appears to be sly innuendo in the form of leaks to hedge funds and arbitrageurs, planted market rumours of increases to the subsequent offer, and financially illiterate calculations of value destruction.
In fact, the combined market capitalisation of Harmony and Gold Fields, two unhedged South African gold producers fully exposed to fluctuations in the rand-dollar exchange rate, has declined only 6% relative to that of the hedged AngloGold Ashanti, which has half of its production offshore. This illustrates that any so-called value destruction in our share prices is mainly due to macroeconomic circumstances and not to the bid.
Indeed, Gold Fields’ share price is inflated. Examination of the history of the behaviour of share prices in bid situations all over the world shows that were Gold Fields management to get its wish for our subsequent offer to go away, Gold Fields shareholders would see a drop in their share price equivalent to the subsequent offer premium.
With no discernible new direction and their previous stated strategy in tatters, Gold Fields management should embrace our subsequent offer rather than impose conditions or reject outright the wishes of their two largest shareholders: Harmony and Norilsk.
Experience indicates that significant reduction in layers and numbers of managers not only saves costs, but, more importantly, is the first step to empowering the people in the production engine room of the organisation. Our tested systems, belief in people’s abilities and our proven implementation strategies give me confidence in the future of a Harmony combined with Gold Fields.
This has always been a matter for shareholders to decide. The best way to accommodate shareholder democracy is to provide information, performance records and vision.
Our two sets of shareholders will be the final arbiters in the debate about what is best for our companies.
Bernard Swanepoel
Chief Executive
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
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Harmony - Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold Fields
HAPSHarmony - Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold FieldsmergerHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)(Registration number 1950/038232/06)Share code: HAR ISIN: ZAE000015228("Harmony")NEWS RELEASE FROM HARMONY11 February 2005Competition Commission recommends approval for Harmony-Gold Fields mergerHarmony has today received notice from the Competition Commission that it isrecommending approval for Harmony"s proposed merger with Gold Fields to theCompetition Tribunal. The recommendation comes with a condition that no morethan 1500 employees at a managerial or supervisory level be retrenched as aresult of the proposed merger.Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel said he was pleased that the recommendationhad come through within the regulated time period. "We are comfortable with theprinciple behind the condition that the Competition Commission has recommendedsince we"ve said all along that no more than 1500 retrenchments at a managerialor supervisory level were envisaged as part of the cost savings and synergies weplan to extract from Gold Fields" operations. We are now approaching the finalhurdle in our plans to merge Harmony and Gold Fields. We remain convinced that amerger between the two companies will deliver a value proposition to allstakeholders, i.e. shareholders, employees and the various communities in whichwe will be operating."According to the Competition Act of 1998, the Competition Tribunal is requiredto set a date for a pre-hearing or a hearing within ten business days ofreferral by the Competition Commission.ENDS
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Die Silberpfeile drehen heute schon beim kurz vor dem Start die Motoren hoch und warten auf das gruene Licht !
Ich hoffe die Rennleitung drueckt auf den Knopf.
Mahendra hatte Recht so wie es aussieht.Have a nice golden or silver weekend
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