PS: Ich hatte vor einiger Zeit die These aufgestellt, dass "die Chinesen" die Anomalien im Preisverlauf im Silber im Herbst 2010 bewirkt haben könnten. Insbesondere erscheint mir das Statement des CFTC Bürokraten und die absurde Max Kaiser Kampagne als sehr sehr anrüchig.
Für mich macht es momentan wesentlich mehr Sinn, wenn JPM "seinen eigenen Chinesen" erschaffen hat. D.h. man hat im Herbst 2010 alle Silberinvestments deren man habhaft werden konnte, zusammengerafft. Dann hat man den Kurs soweit hochgetrieben, wie möglich. und hat dann Kasse gemacht. Die Verluste an der Comex waren zu vernachlässigen. Dito mit leichtem Versatz in Gold.
Nun akkumuliert man wieder alles EM dessen man habhaft werden kann. Die Verluste in anderen Gescäftsbereichen von JPM sind in ihrer Wirkung auf den POS noch viel unmöglicher einzuschätzen als die winzige Shortposition (in USD!!!). (JPM oder irgendein Short muss kein Silber liefern! Geld ist ausreichend!)
Was schrieb Alasdair Macleod kürzlich in "The gold bullion market" bzgl. JPM:
"There is continual debate about this position, which was apparently inherited from Bear Sterns, when JPMorgan took it over. Those of you who have followed this debate will know that JPMorgan are routinely accused of market manipulation and even illegal dealing.
However, the head of JP Morgan’s, commodities division (Blythe Masters) publicly stated on TV recently that they did not run uncovered positions. I cannot believe a senior executive of JPMorgan goes on TV to tell a straightforward lie.
So, taking her statement at face value, JPMorgan’s silver position, which they took on from Bear Sterns, has to be for a client, and that is most probably China, who besides being a major producer is the largest refiner of silver concentrate and doré (which is semi-refined ingots). Others have suggested the Fed, who certainly have a history of market manipulation. But I can’t see any logical reason why they should manipulate silver: Gold yes, silver no. This also explains why JPMorgan has been unable to comment and enquiries by the CTFC have yielded no comment, until Ms Masters narrowed the field for us.
So the variable we need to know is actually how many months forward are the Chinese government looking to sell their refined output. Given that management of commodities dealing is a centralised government function, this is probably both a strategic, political decision and a commercial decision. Bear in mind that from a commercial point of view, the Chinese want low silver prices, but from a strategic point of view they probably want to build a strategic reserve. However, they have been shortening their time horizon, which we can deduce from the green line on the chart above has gone from many months (like six plus when you allow for forward purchases by fabricators) to perhaps less than three months. Looked at another way, on the price decline from Feb 28 when silver was at $37, the commercials have bought back 27,800 net contracts of silver (139 million oz). That is up to last Tuesday (2nd May).
So, a legacy COT report which looks bearish on first sight is not bearish at all. All we can conclude is that someone, most probably China, is controlling the price, and has been reducing their position. Commercial considerations mean that ideally for China the price of silver should not rise too fast. But it is already under-priced relative to gold at over 50 to 1, and the next rise in the gold price only needs to take investment demand above 100m ounces annually for the price itself to take off again."
Interessant in diesem Zusammenhang ist auch der Inhalt eines "consolidated class action complaints" gegen JPM bzgl. "manipulate prices of silver futures and options traded on the COMEX", eingereicht am 12.09.2011 von Lovell Stewart Halebian Jacobson LLP beim Southern District Court of New York. Dort wird auf über 80 Seiten detailiert beschrieben wann und wie JPM manipulierte - die short postion, die im März 2008 von BS übernommenen wurde, wird hier mit 130M Oz beziffert. So mal abgesehen davon, daß China ein Interesse an einem niedrigen Silver Future haben könnte und dieses auch versucht un/mittelbar durchzusetzen, besteht imo kein Zweifel daran, daß JPM in der Manipulation (in jede Richtung) des Futures involviert war und sicher auch noch ist.
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