Von Blase keine Spur, schöne Umfrage.
Grüße
GOLD IS NOT FINISHED – HERE’S WHY
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Every year, around the beginning of May, we take a trip over to a local coffee shop to see what the average Joe thinks about the markets. The most efficient way to do this is to administer a poll to this crowd of mostly working class professionals in their 20s, 30s and 40s. While not the most scientific of polls, the data below is quite informative.
@Eldo, ich glaub Deinen Einstiegskurs hast Du bald wieder. Hoffe es sprudelt nächstes Jahr.
International Frontier Resources Corporation: North Sea Exploration Well Planned
Tuesday May 23, 8:00 am ET
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(CCNMatthews - May 23, 2006) - International Frontier Resources Corporation (TSX VENTURE:IFR - News) announces that letter agreements have been signed with Palace Exploration Company (E&P) Limited ("Palace"), Oilexco North Sea Limited ("Oilexco" TSX: OIL LSE- AIM: OIL), Gulf Shores Resources Ltd. ("Gulf Shores" GUL TSX-V) and Eternal Energy Corporation ("Eternal" EERG - OTC) under which Oilexco, Gulf Shores and Eternal will drill a test well to evaluate the Laurel Valley prospect located in Quad 14 in the Outer Moray Firth area of the UK North Sea. The Laurel Valley #1 well will evaluate two prospective Jurassic oil targets and the Lower Cretaceous section identified on a 255 square kilometer 3D seismic survey. Drilling costs will be funded by Oilexco 75%, Gulf Shores 12.50% and Eternal 12.50%.
Drilling operations, using the Sedco 712 rig currently under contract to Oilexco, will commence on or before December 31, 2006. After drilling, working interests in the blocks will be held Oilexco - 45.00% (operator), Palace & Challenger - 26.00%, International Frontier - 10.4375%, Eternal - 9.1875% and Gulf Shores - 9.3750%. The agreement is subject to approval of the UK Department of Trade and Industry and execution of formal farm-in agreements.
The Company also reported today that a seismic review - farm-in option letter agreement has been executed covering blocks 21/8, 21/14 and 21/15b located in the Central Graben area of the North Sea. Under the agreement International Frontier, Oilexco, Gulf Shores and Eternal have until July 15, 2006 to elect to drill a farm-in well on the Quad 21 acreage held by Palace and Challenger Minerals (North Sea) Limited.
Commenting on the agreements company President, Pat Boswell, said the company is pleased to partner with Oilexco who have gained the reputation of being one of the most innovative and aggressive exploration companies in the UK sector of the North Sea. Oilexco had the foresight to contract a drilling rig under a long term arrangement when demand for rigs in the North Sea has reached record levels. Having a rig under long term contract allows Oilexco to develop any exploration successes in a timely fashion.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060523/200605230328771001.html?.v=1
Wow das ist ja ein Brocken, hoffe ich hab eine gute Fangquote! 
Hab zum Glück noch ca. 1/3 Cash und fange an nach und nach aufzustocken. Am Anfang hatte ich das Gefühl, ich hätte mich zu früh getrennt von einigen Aktien (hab auch einige Prozente liegen lassen), aber im Moment freut mich der Cashanteil sehr. Meine Strategie in solchen Marktsituationen ist, sich auf seine Kernaktien zu konzentrieren, die man wirklich gut kennt und bei einer Übertreibung nach unten, kräftig aufzustocken. Die Aktien, die ich nicht so gut kenne (egal ob im plus oder minus) fliegen sofort raus. Bei WEL bin ich mir sehr sicher, daß sich der Markt irrt und nicht ich.
Hoffe wir lassen uns alle nicht allzu sehr frustrieren.
Grüße
Weiter gehts mit der Aufstockung der Positionen. Den zwischenzeitlichen Buchgewinn von 70% hats fast komplett zerbröselt, heute Position um 80% aufgestock. In Frankfurt gabs eben sehr günstige Stücke abzufischen.
Grüße
Gestern gabs schlechte erste Bohrergebnisse von Eden Lake:
"Although no economic grades of mineralization were intersected, the 2006 drill program confirms that carbonatite is more common in the topographically low areas of the property and contains rare earth-bearing apatite. Five of the holes intersected altered (fenitized) rock, which is a common alteration at the edges of carbonatite masses."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060519/200605190328980001.html?.v=1
Gestern gabs ja echt einiges zu bestauen zwischen 15.30h und 22h MEZ! Neben den hier schon erwähnten, will ich noch einen schönen vorstellen: Abcourt (ABI.V)! Vom Tief 0,70 CAD auf Schlusskurs 1 CAD! Das sind sagenhafte 43%! Was mir allerdings noch nicht so gefällt, warem die Volumen. Was sagt Ihr dazu? Könnte auch gut eine Shorteindeckungswelle vorm Wochenende gewesen sein, oder?
Grüße
@Eldo
Hab mir heute den MLNEF mal näher angesehen. Auf der Homepage (http://www.mlim.co.uk/uksite/fund-centre/ff-973793.asp) sind leider nur Fondsdaten zum 28.02.06 verfügbar. Hast Du aktuellere Fondsdaten bzgl. Premium to NAV und Holdings?
Laut Februar-Daten bestand eine Prämie zum inneren Wert i.H. von 4,8 %, die gegenüber der 1,3%-Prämie im Januar 2006, kräftig gestiegen ist.
Evergreen, Q-Cells, Solarworld, Suntech Power hast Du ja bereits als Einzelpositionen im Depot. Das gebundene Kapital in diesen Aktien würde ich wieder frei machen, außer Du willst die Positionen stärker gewichten.
Ein großer Vorteil des Fonds liegt auf jeden Fall in der Kenntnis der in London gelisteten NE-Aktien, wie z.B. Gamesa und Clipper Windpower. Was mich auch sehr interessiert, sind die bis zu 25%, die der Fonds in nichtbörsennotierte Beteiligungen investieren darf.
Zur Zeit halte ich nur meine beiden Kanadier Carmanah und Xantrex und den amerikanischen Dünnschichter Daystar Technologies. Also Platz für den Fonds hätte ich.
Grüße
Heute die JNR Resources (JNN.V) abgefischt. Die Kurse fangen an zu drehen, aber obs das schon war?
Grüße
Die Shoties sind am Werk. Hier die Rangliste der 20 am meistgeshorteten Aktien an der TSX:
Platz 4 Kinross Gold
Platz 5 Cambior
Platz 6 Goldcorp
usw.
Gestern und heute stark zurückgekommen, hat sich bei 1,50 CAD gefangen. Spekulative Einsteigsmöglichkeit meiner Meinung nach.
Grüße
Yesterday, was an ugly day across the board. It didn’t matter
whether you were in the banking sector or the mining or the
oil and gas sector, it was universally ugly. Caught in the
down-draft was International Frontier Resources, a junior that we
follow because of their number of high profile, high reward,
high risk plays in the North Sea and also their joint ventures
with Husky, EOG Resources and Pacific Rodera up in the
Mackenzie Valley of northern Canada. Every winter drilling
up there tends to attract a little attention. Yesterday though,
the partners announce some of their drilling results and the
market was less than impressed. What the market heard was
that in two drill stem tests on the shallow primary objective,
yielded a combined flow rate of 5 million cubic feet per day of
sweet gas. A 5 million mcf/d well in Alberta or Texas or most
other places is a dream come true for many oil and gas companies,
but up in the high cost Mackenzie Valley where there
is also no pipelines, some people consider it disappointing.
What got missed in the news release was the fact that they
only tested between 13% and 33% of what could be a huge
hydrocarbon column which could as little 164 feet, but also
could be as large as 328 feet. In other words, there is a whole
bunch more testing to be done here and there is still lots of
upside. Then again, there is that ugly market.
Kommentar von Canaccord macht Hoffnung:
Here in Edmonton yesterday, it hit 31 degrees Celsius and for
those still on the prehistoric system, that works out to 88 degrees
Fahrenheit. I’m sure you know how far north the “City of Champions”
is, but if not, take a look at a map. We are up there. So it’s a record
historical high yesterday and signs again that the weather patterns
are changing, which is not the point.
Look at what has happened to wheat prices yesterday. When most
commodities were getting absolutely clobbered, wheat prices in Kansas
were hitting nine-year highs. Why? Well, it’s the weather, silly!
Big heat everywhere, particularly where they grow wheat and eventually
we get to our point. Natural gas.
If you had any doubts before, this past winter showed just how
dependent natural gas prices are on weather. The chart on gas shows
how it soared like so many other commodities last fall and winter and
then plummeted. Last winter had a big surprise – there was no winter.
Here in Edmonton, center of the resource financial world and good
hockey, we had no snow until February.
Gas prices plummeted to a third of what it had been in just a very
small period of time.
There are few big river systems left in North America to dam and
there haven’t been many nukes built in decades and coal takes a lot of
money to get a plant built and usually they are quite dirty. So if you
are a big utility and want a quick and easy power plant that’s got off
the rack engineering, and want it built in two years and sometimes
shorter, these little natural gas powered plants are the answer. And
there have been plenty built in the past few years. But with no demand
last winter. And remember, the big utilities run their billion dollar
nuke plants or coal plants non-stop—the little gas plants service
seasonal demand.
Now comes summer and a hot summer with power demand for air
conditioning could help the gas sectors woes. With drilling costs
through the roof, service costs so high, trouble finding labor and land
costs setting ever new records, six dollar gas means a lot of companies
aren’t making much money, if at all. There have already been
announcements by Encana that they have cut their exploration budget
for natural gas by half a billion dollars and corporate biggie CNQ has
cut exploration by 150 wells, which helps (if you are not looking for
gas, you are certainly not finding it). But inventories remain high—
currently at 2,080 bcf, 494 bcf higher than last year and 722 bcf higher
than the five-year average!
So this heat that’s hitting much of North America early this year,
gives hope to the gas bulls who ideally look for a hot summer, then a
big hurricane season to knock off production in the Gulf Coast, followed
by a cold winter.
@Edel & Eldo
Es gibt wichtige News von Doug Casey zu Canwest. Ein Forbes-Reporter bastel an einer Story über Canwest und es könnte weiter runter gehen. Ich halte.
Grüße
Casey Research Special Bulletin: Collateral Damage
May 17, 2006
CanWest is having a bad day. Here’s what we know.
Last Friday we received a call from a reporter from Forbes working on a story that, reading between the lines, seems to question whether or not the CanWest concession is, in fact, a legitimate oil sands play.
The nub of the issue, as we interpret it, has to do with one of the early investors in the company, back when it was early stage with a dream and a prayer of finding bitumen in Saskatchewan. (An entity owned by us, DCDG, LLC., was also an investor at that stage, but only with an inconsequential position -- view the company's SB-2 Registration Statement by clicking on this link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/ed…6014740/v040271_424b3.txt).
While it is only conjecture at this point, our interpretation is that Forbes is about to do one of its famous attack pieces on this particular financier (who has nothing to do with the day to day running of CanWest, by the way) and by extension CanWest. Looking at today’s price action, we can only surmise that word of the pending article is getting around and those in know are trying to get out while the getting is good. In the same way that CWPC has risen in near meteoric fashion, it now looks set to come off substantially. Remember, the reverse side of a hockey stick is just as steep as the front.
What’s the smart move here? Run for cover, or view the sell-off as a buying opportunity?
After listening to the reporter, we believe his initial understanding of the CanWest property is a misunderstanding. Starting with the fact that the financier in question is simply just another investor in the company, and has nothing to do with its management. While many reporters write their stories in their minds before setting a word to paper, then ignore everything except confirming facts – and that well may be the case here – our sense is that this particular reporter is doing his homework. Hopefully between now and press time he’ll get the data he needs to clear up his concerns. If not, and if CWPC is painted with the same negative brush as the companies actually managed by this individual, then the fall-off in CWPC that began today could continue until after the full impact of the article is felt, which will be after it hits the stands in a week or so.
While the prudent thing to do is to pull your original investment out of the stock, and that is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, after double-checking our original work, we remain confident in the company’s new management team and the merits of its underlying assets. As a result, we’re holding on to our shares, and will look upon any continued fall out from the Forbes article to create an excellent speculative opportunity for a second bite at the apple.
Let me stress again that this is still largely in the realm of conjecture. At press time the reporter was still very much in research mode, so there is a good chance he’ll discover the CanWest story, as attention-grabbing as it has been, is completely legitimate and will leave it out of his broader story. In which case, we would expect to the stock to rebound, high and fast.
If you sell now, and some newer subscribers may even be selling at a loss, and there is no story, then you could well miss the turnaround and have to buy back in at higher prices. If he persists in putting CanWest into his story, and the stock takes a further hit as a result – possibly sending it below the $6.00 mark -- then buying more makes a lot of sense to us.
As with all investments, whether you stay, go, or buy more will be more a function of your psychology and personal financial situation than anything else. As just mentioned, we are confident enough in our work that we are holding, and will look to buy with both hands once it looks like CWPC has bottomed.
We’ll keep you posted on this drama as it unfolds.
Nein, war leider nichts. ich bin raus heute mit -30%, StoppLoss. Die Unterstützung wurde nachhaltig durchbrochen und die Nachricht wars:
18.05.2006 US-Erdgasvorräte weiter gestiegen
Die Erdgas-Lagervorräte der Vereinigten Staaten sind in der vergangenen Woche um weitere 2,57 Milliarden Kubikmeter gestiegen. Dies meldete heute das US-Energieministerium. Das Land verfügte damit insgesamt über Reserven im Umfang von 58,9 Milliarden Kubikmeter. Dies liegt 13,98 Milliarden Kubikmeter oberhalb des Vorjahresniveaus und 20,44 Milliarden Kubikmeter über dem 5-Jahres-Mittel.
An der New York Mercantile Exchange verbilligt sich der Juni-Erdgasfuture aktuell um 19,9 Cents oder 3,3 Prozent auf 6,93 Dollar.
Der schlechte Kern der Feasibility-Studie (Kommentar von Canaccord):
Yukon Zinc came out with their feasibility study on their Wolverine Property in the Yukon a few days ago and the results weren’t good. Then the stock was halted to announce that as bad as those results might have been to some, that actually, they were worse.
They suggested they made an error in their computation and because of this error, the real numbers suggested increase in mining costs from $24.93 to $35.18 per tonne and overall operating costs per tonne moved from $90.26 to $100.51 per tonne. All in all it means a cumulative life-of-mine operating costs just got bounced by $54 million. Ouch!
Artike stammt aus dem Mai 2005, es gibt aber Parallelen.
US Energy Investor: "I believe there is a strong possibility natural gas will be the big story this summer with price spikes to well over $10 per mcf."
http://www.admiralbay.com/glob…ural_Gas_Set_to_Spike.pdf
Grüße
@Eldo
da hab ich auch noch eine Australien-Empfehlungen, hatte ich alle schon Mal am 04.04.06 vorgestellt:
- Energy Resources of Australia (ERA.AUS)
ERA betreibt das Ranger-Uran-Bergwerk imNorthern Territory von Australien. Der größte Uranproduzent des Landes wird kontrolliert vom Bergbauriesen Rio Tinto (68,4 Prozent). Weitere Anteile halten der weltgrößte Uranförderer
Cameco aus Kanada (6,7 Prozent), die französische Cogema (7,8 ) sowie Japan Australia Uranium Resource Development (10,6). ERA produzierte 2005 gut 13 Millionen Pound Uran U3O8 (ein Pound sind 454 Gramm). Das entspricht etwa 60 Prozent der Fördermenge des Weltmarktführers Cameco.
Der Gewinn stieg um zehn Prozent auf 40 Millionen Australdollar.
Da die Lieferverträge mit Kraftwerksbetreibern lange laufen, profitierten die Australier noch kaum vom fulminanten Anstieg des Uranpreises von 7 auf zuletzt 40 US-Dollar je Pound. Der Malus verschwindet mit neuen Verträgen.
ERA besitzt mit 518 Millionen Pound etwa die Hälfte der Uranvorkommen Camecos. Gemessen am Marktwert von 2,5 Milliarden Australdollar bringt ERA aber erst ein Zehntel von Cameco auf die Waage.
Grüße
nach Börsenschluss kam heute die Hammernachricht zu Admiral Bay (ADB.V):
Admiral Bay Announces Completion of US$40,000,000 Credit Facility
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/060516/200605160328195001.html?.v=1
Das erinnert mich doch ganz stark, an den Beginn des Höhenfluges bei Falcon Oil & Gas:
- die Kreditgebende Bank ist die australische Macquarie Bank (wie bei Falcon)
- MC Admiral 69 Mio. CAD, Kreditvergabe i.H. von 40 Mio. CAD
- sofort verfügbar 15 Mio. CAD zur Beschleunigung der Gasprojekte im Cherokee Basin (Kansas) und dem Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania (auf Abruf weitere 25 Mio.)
- Kredit wird durch die Assets von Admiral abgesichert (da muß ganz schön was schlummern, Banken geben nicht gern solche Riesenkredite)
- weiterhin erhält Macquarie einen non-transferable share purchase warrant, der es ihr erlaubt ca. 5 Mio. Admiral Bay Aktien zu 1,60 CAD bis zum 16. Mai 2008 zu erwerben - aktueller Kurs 0,96 CAD
Grüße
@Eldo
schau mal in den Rohöl-Thread!
Grüße
