Vorschau von Jon Kaplan:
ZitatMULTI-YEAR EXTREMES OF MANY KINDS INCREASE IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS (November 27, 2005): In the past few weeks, there have been an unusually high number of extremes in the financial markets, indicating that many asset classes have recently made, or are about to make, major changes of direction that should create new trends which will persist for several months or more. Sentiment toward long-dated U.S. Treasuries was close to an all-time bearish extreme three weeks ago; since then, Treasuries completed an important double bottom on November 4, and have been rallying steadily ever since. The U.S. dollar index had an all-time record commercial net short position as of November 15; the following morning, the U.S. dollar completed a two-year high and appears to be set for a decline that will likely last for several months, and perhaps approach the historic lows of December 2004. Equity mutual funds currently hold only a 3.8% cash position, even lower than the previous record of 4.0% in September 2000. Some measures of investor bearishness are close to an all-time record low, while others are at an all-time record low, indicating virtually no fear of a significant stock market decline. Thus, U.S. equities are set for what will likely be a substantial and sustained pullback which will likely continue until the autumn of 2006. Sentiment toward precious metals, including gold and gold mining shares, is close to its highest levels since the early 1970s. Short-term strength is still possible, but over the next several months, gold mining shares will likely decline an average of 20% from current levels.
In real estate, there is all-time record positive sentiment that one's house is the best of all possible investments, even as prices have been declining modestly in the U.S. since June. The collapse of the U.S. real estate market may be the only financial event of the coming decade which is long remembered by almost everyone, just as the stock market collapse of 1929-1932 is virtually the only financial event of that era which is known by the average person today. With so many extremes available, an intelligent contrarian will have established, and continue to build, a diversified position in all of these asset classes, fading the crowd in each case.
Beim US$ gehe ich mit ihm noch einig, auch was Aktien anbetrifft, erwarte ich substantielle Rückgänge. Könnte natürlich sein, dass dies die PM Aktien, zumindest kurzfristig, mitzieht.
Aber, dass er bei der Goldparty (früherer Beitrag) ungern mitmacht, na ja, da könnte er was verpassen...
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
Silberpreise in 1998 US$:
