Das neue Südafrika

Home is where my heart, laughter, and friends are.

Aladin

Was neues von Peter George

"Buy when there's blood in the street"

The South African gold share market is presently in one of those down cycles but opportunities abound. This report focuses on one of the SEVEN existing goldfields - the EAST RAND. The writer believes time and circumstance dictate the need for a closer look at ways in which the EAST RAND Basin could be brought back to life. Before doing so one needs to be persuaded that the current crisis in the gold market is of limited duration - that it is a time to buy and not to sell.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/george/george082405.html

Edel Man

Peter George ist schon in Ordnung,der macht wenig Sprueche.
AFL ist ein Aussenseiter und da steckt mehr dahinter als man glaubt.
A future play auf jeden Fall, IMHO.
AFL wird Hauptlieferant fuer die geplanten Atomkraftwerke die das ganze suedliche Afrika versorgen werden, ein riesiger Power Grid den man aufbauen will. (2010 bis ??). Steht hier irgendwo im Thread, schau mal.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/george050605.html

From a South African perspective, the most exciting means of entry remains near-term potential uranium producer, AFLEASE Gold and Uranium.

http://www.investmentindicators.com/index.php

Ich bin indirekt ueber Range in und was er sagt bzw. andeuted hat ist Great Basin Gold (GBN) die habe ich nun am Radar. Die anderen sagte er nicht,nur fuer members. Meiner Meinung denkt er sehr optimistisch ueber die Minen aber als Einheimischer sollte man auch Optimist sein sonst ist die Stimmung ganz im Eimer.

Gruss

XAX

gibts auch minen anleihen ich will ja nich zocken sondern sicher anlegen. aber ich will ne gute rendite.

Gold production in South Africa could decline by up to 20% this year

Excerpts from the "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster."

Restructuring at S.A.'s gold mines, together with a continuingly strong Rand forcing the prices received by the mines to loss levels for many mines and a one-day strike, hammered South African gold output down 18% in the June quarter against the same quarter last year, according to Chamber of Mines figures just released. In April the chamber reported that S.A.'s gold production fell 8.8% to 342.7 tonnes last year, the lowest level since 1931. Now take this figure, down 2.4% on the first quarter and to date the years 's gold production is dropping below the 400 tonne level, if the second half rises back to last year's levels. This is most unlikely.

What is more likely is that the fall off will continue to take annual production this year from South Africa to 360+ tonnes, a far more than projected drop, than expected. This is even more significant when one considers that a weakening Rand is moving off the screens to be replaced by a steady to stronger Rand. So there is little short to medium term prospect that gold production will improve. With the prospects of a "Royalty" still on the screen, it is more likely that these figures will continue to fall as the South African mining environment continues to discourage new investment in gold mining.
more....

http://www.321gold.com/editori…llips/phillips082905.html

Für Eldo

"An dieser Stelle fällt mir der Satz eines Farmers aus Simbabwe ein, der durch die Presse ging: Zu Zeiten grassierender Zusammenrottungen schwarzer Landarbeiter, bei denen es, von Staats wegen stillschweigend gebilligt, zunehmend zu Exekutionen weißer Großgrundbesitzer kam, fragte der besorgte Farmer seine eignen Arbeiter, ob sie ihm etwa Ähnliches anzutun gedächten, schließlich sei er ihnen doch jahrzehntelang ein guter Dienstherr gewesen. Bewahre!, dementierte man: Jeder der ihren gehe ausschließlich zu benachbarten Farmen, sei der Weg auch noch so lang."
http://www.zeit.de/2005/36/Wei_a7er_Mann?page=all

@ Ulfur

Traurige Sache was da abgeht in Zim,alles wird abgeschossen, die letzten 500 Elefanten sind jetzt Mugabe's Presidenten Herde die er nun unter Schutz gestellt hat.
Schau mal auch in New Orleans, Frauen werden vergewaltigt, gepluendert, geschossen,Raubueberfaelle, fast Anarchie nach den Hurrican, wer ist es. ?..meistens wieder die Neger, die kennen da gar nichts und nutzen es sofort aus das sogar die Armee anruecken muss um Ordnung zu schaffen.Kann ja noch verstehen wenn sie Lebensmittel stehlen aber sie suchen andere Dinge.
Sogar die Polizei verbarrikadiert sich in vielen Stationen bis die Army da ist.
Ein zivilisierter Mensch wuerde sich bestimmt nicht so verhalten und eher helfen. Man sieht wieder mal, man kann einen Neger aus dem Busch holen aber niemals den Busch aus dem Neger.
Back to the Stoneage..... Afrika ein Fass ohne Boden !

CBS/AP) With law officers and National Guardsmen focused on saving lives, looters around the city spent another day Wednesday brazenly raped women,ransacking stores for food, beer, clothing, appliances — and guns.

Mortuary crisis hits Zim

02/09/2005 13:46

Harare - Corpses are piling up at town hospitals in Zimbabwe because families do not have the fuel available to collect the bodies for burial, reported a newspaper on Friday.
The privately run Daily Mirror said scores of bodies had not been collected from provincial hospitals in Bindura, Marondera and Masvingo, among others.

The paper said at least 51 corpses were lying in the mortuary at Masvingo Provincial Hospital, despite the fact it was only supposed to hold a maximum of 17 bodies.

The hospital's administrator Vitalis Shonhai said: "The situation has worsened recently due to the fuel crisis.

Deceased's relatives are finding it difficult to collect bodies because many vehicles are grounded due to fuel shortages."

Possible fuel delivery

Zimbabwe was in the grip of its worst fuel crisis ever. Almost all fuel stations had run dry, and only motorists with access to foreign currency were allowed to purchase fuel coupons at five stations still serving the precious commodity.

In rural areas, long lines of dusty cars sit outside fuel stations for days, waiting for a possible fuel delivery.

President Robert Mugabe's government blamed the shortage - and similar shortages of electrical power - on a lack of foreign currency. ( diese hat er in die Schweiz gebracht)

Shonhai said part of the blame was also the slow pace with which the authorities were carrying out paupers' burials.

Zimbabwe's hospitals were being stretched to the limit by HIV/Aids, which killed at least 2 000 people a week.

SA stands ground on Zim loan

04/09/2005 20:25

Johannesburg - South Africa is sticking to its tough conditions for any financial assistance to Zimbabwe, despite its northern neighbour coming up with a 120-million-dollar payment, the Johannesburg-based Sunday Times reported.

Quoting unnamed officials, the paper said negotiations over the bail-out continued last week, with Harare sending an undisclosed response to South African proposals for support worth up to $500m over two years.

Zimbabwe paid back more than a third of a $295m (€235m) arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week, with the paper reporting the amount was likely to stave off an expulsion from the global lender, but was too little to enable new IMF lending.

Quoting an unnamed official, the paper said South Africa's offer continued to "rest on two pillars - economic recovery and political stability."

Further conditions for the loan - including a commitment by Zimbabwe to action that would ensure its ability to repay them still stood, the official added.

A $120m payment from sources not previously disclosed to the IMF or South Africa, could stave off expulsion from the lending club :D.for another six months, the paper said.

But it added "Zimbabwe still needs about $174m to clear its debt. Only then can the IMF consider new loans."

Zimbabwean Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono said that talks with South Africa over the payback continued, but Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa indicated last month that "any political conditionalities (on loans) are unacceptable and we will not succumb to them."

News24/AFP

Cosatu: Mbeki's grip too tight

04/09/2005 17:19

Johannesburg - South Africa's governing alliance is in crisis following the recent sacking of President Thabo Mbeki's former deputy Jacob Zuma over allegations of corruption, the South African newspaper Sunday Times reported.
All parties of the alliance - the ANC, Cosatu and the SACP - were divided internally over the course of the government, Cosatu leader Zwelinzima Vavi wrote in an editorial.

"No one can doubt that we face a political crisis.... Now divisions are evident within the ANC itself, the SACP and even Cosatu," Vavi wrote.

"There is widespread concern about where the economy is going. In these circumstances, for many alliance activists the Zuma case has been the last straw," he added.

Accusing Mbeki of political conspiracy, the unionists and the communists had both demanded that the investigation against Zuma should be stopped and the former deputy President reinstated into his old office.
Vavi said the alliance members were also opposed Mbeki's allegedly overly tight grip onto the government.

Als Zyniker könnte man sagen: Da ist zuwenig

Affenzirkus in RSA, sonst wäre der Rand nicht so stark.


aber keine Sorge. Der Affe bekommt noch Zucker!


Nun ist Affenzirkus immer relativ. Die USA hat

zur Zeit erstklassige Rotarsch-Paviane.

Tambok

"Sonst waere der Rand nicht so stark"

Also mich wundert der Rand auch, speziell wenn ich einkaufen gehe wie schnell er weg ist.

Nur kleines Beispiel

Rasierschaum 200ml 5 Euro
Filet Rind 1kg 13 Euro
Gegrilltes Huhn 8 Euro
Milch 1 liter 80 cents
Pizza take away 6 Euro
Zigaretten 2 Euro
Sandwich 3 Euro
Mineralwasser 0.75 1.50 Euro
Bohnenkaffee 1kg 20 Euro
40 Teebeutel (Kamille) 3 Euro
Schokolade (imp) 3 Euro
Wein ab 8 Euro
Waschpulver 1 kg 5 Euro

Benzin,preiswerter mit 75 cents liter (5.95 R)
1995 war es R 1.05 aber die Loehne sind nicht sechs mal gestiegen.

Essen gehen kostet ein Bier und ein Hauptmenue ca. 12 Euro.
Mit Vor und Nachspeise sowie Wein ca. 28 Euro pro Nase.
Billiges ** bis *** Hotel 90-120 Euro. Ein doppelter Bacardi Coke in der Bar 7 Euro, da macht das Leben Spass.

"Als Zyniker könnte man sagen: Da ist zuwenig"

Verdienst im Durchschnitt 400 Euro, viele weniger.
Eine Putzfrau verdient ca. 10 Euro am Tag.(4 Stunden schlafen und 4 Stunden putzen und viel essen und trinken, zusaetzlich stehlen was nur geht )
Da braucht man schon alleine 1600 Euro um so zu leben wie bei Euch.
Taxi ist 1.30 Euro pro km, wer eines braucht. Die teuersten Flugpreise in der Welt wer fliegen muss. Aber ein schwarzer Minister kassiert 20.000 Euro netto im Monat, frueher war er Gaertner fuer 200 Euro.

Die Leute verarmen hier und verschuldeten sich mit starken Rand und die Restaurants jammern da keine Gaeste kommen. Die sitzen nun bei Pizza und TV zu hause und haben kein Moos zum weggehen.

Was die Regierung fuer schoene Zahlen da rausgibt entspricht nicht der teueren Realitaet und der starke Rand hilft uns gar nichts, im Gegenteil es wird alles noch teurer, komischerweise auch die Importierte Ware.

Wenn ich mir den Filetpreis anschaue dann ist der ums zwanzigfache gestiegen in 20 Jahren, da hatten wir Sanktionen und es ging jeden besser trotz der Apartheid und Demokratie die keiner essen kann.

Affenzirkus, wer es glaubt wird seelig !

Der Rand ist manipuliert von den Amis und unserer Regierung mit einer bestimmten Absicht die ich jetzt auch noch nicht kenne aber vermute.

XAX

Und die Welt (USA) schaut zu :

Dr. Clive Roffey

So northern neighbour Bob Mugabe has passed into law a new set of draconian measures. First there is the law to abolish freehold ownership of property. If the current 'owner' of the property suddenly does 'own' the property …. Who does ….. Bob Mgabe and his cronies??

Second there is the law allowing the Zimbabwe government to withdraw the passport of any person expressing opposition to the government. This is what happens when a two thirds majority is allowed to exist. A government can claim to be elected on democratic principles and then pass unopposed into law any legislation it feels like, irrespective of whether it is in the democratic interests of the society or solely in the interests of the ruling party and its cronies.

Bob Mugabe has played the rest of the world's politicians like a bunch of idiots and South Africa in particular as the dunce of the class. These recent events magnify the necessity of our ANC government being denied a two thirds majority at the next election.

Last week the Metropolitan Police entered several restaurants in the suburb of Norwood and demanded that diners produce their driving licenses. According to police personnel this action may be repeated in other areas. Roll on George Orwell. Then there is the new section 51 legislation that forces all businesses to disclose all data on its business, products, client details etc. This is yet another Orwellian action. Although the legislation is being ostensibly carried out to obtain accurate business statistics it is yet another intrusion into the basic privacy of individuals that is supposed to be enshrined in the new constitution.

"1984" may be over two decades ago on the time line but the big brother literary principles of Orwell are alive and well and being practiced with vigor in Southern Africa.

Some two years ago I produced an analysis of the price of Brent Crude Oil when it was trading at sub $30 a barrel. I analysed that there was an upside target of $72 to75. This was once again treated with a large degree of scepticism. The oil price in New York has touched $70.85 with Brent hitting $69. At this stage I do not see much further upside for the oil price now that it is approaching my target area.

Conversely the Rand has ended its rally from R6.95 to R6.31 to the dollar. The next move on my data is for further weakness back to the R7.30 level. The Rand price of gold hit my oft stated short term target of R2950 and ounce and has reacted back to test the R2790 support level. There is still an unfilled count up to R3200 and I expect this to be achieved by the end of the year.

I attended a technical analysis conference last Thursday at which Robin Griffiths of Rathbones in London presented a global view of markets. His comments on China were most interesting. Whereas many analysts are expecting a slowing of growth he anticipates at least constant if not rising growth to continue. He bases this on the fact that China has now demographically become a large internal consumer of its own production and will not have to rely as heavily on exports in future. He expects the demand for basic resources to continue and that South Africa will remain in the forefront of the supply line with the obvious benefits to our resource companies and their shareholders.

Although gold had panic dip on Tuesday down to $429 it has merely increased the base from which the next bull phase will rise. The bigger the base, the larger the upside potential and the two year base across the $430 level is massive. This subtends a move well into the $600's once the breakout above $440 occurs.

I am receiving all sorts of email detailing a head and shoulders top on the gold shares that has supposedly developed during the past few months. My analysis is the exact opposite.

The recent short term strength of the Rand, due to dollar weakness has been ridiculously overdone. The move back to test the R6.20 level has resulted in a serious sell divergence as the RSI in the bottom frame has refused to confirm the new upside move. This is a selling area for the Rand and a signal of a major trend reversal.

The first major correction of the new gold bull market is shown on the JSE Gold index. The past month has witnessed the first minor correction in big wave 3. In addition the momentum data in the bottom frame is starting to accelerate on the upside. This is a very strong bull market signal. A move back above 1800 on the JSE Gold index will trigger a massive buying spree from all the trend watchers as the index breaks out of its major downtrend. This is EXTREMELY BULLISH data for the next two years.

more....

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey090405.html

Life is cheap in RSA

Man killed over cigarette

04/09/2005 22:38

Johannesburg - Eastern Cape Police say a 21-year-old man has stabbed and killed another man in Hilton near the town of Aliwal North after he was refused a cigarette.
Captain Ursula Roelofse said that the two were in a field arguing over a cigarette when one of them pulled out a knife and stabbed the other in the neck.

The man died shortly afterwards and the 21-year-old was arrested.

He will appear in the Aliwal North magistrate's court on Monday, Roelofse said.

Bessere Erträge der Goldproduzenten
Der stärkere Dollar hilft Südafrikas Unternehmen

Die Goldpreisentwicklung hat den Produzenten im zweiten Quartal zu höheren Erträgen verholfen. Die Stärkung des Dollars hat zudem den Druck auf Südafrikas Förderer vermindert. Die Entwicklung scheint allerdings nicht von Dauer zu sein.

Ausserordentliche Faktoren
Die Ergebnisse der Goldförderer profitierten im Vergleich mit dem entsprechenden Vorjahresquartal von den höheren Preisen. Die Gewinne wurden allerdings bei verschiedenen Unternehmen auch durch ausserordentliche Erträge positiv beeinflusst. Die südafrikanischen Produzenten konnten für einmal aufatmen. Die Kursgewinne des Dollars dämpften den Druck der hohen Förderkosten etwas. Zeitweise stieg der Rand-Goldpreis von einem Tief von 81 500 Rd./kg auf 96 500 Rd./kg. Die positive Entwicklung dürfte allerdings nicht von Dauer sein. Der Rand hat in der zweiten Juli-Hälfte bereits wieder zugelegt und den Goldpreis wieder unter 90 000 Rd./kg sinken lassen. Zu schaffen machen dürften den südafrikanischen Unternehmen im dritten Quartal zudem die Auswirkungen des ersten landesweiten Streiks, der die Produktion während vier Tagen zum Stillstand brachte. Die Ertragsausfälle werden auf 130 Mio. Rd. pro Tag geschätzt.

http://www.nzz.ch/2005/09/05/wi/articleD24D6.html