Das neue Südafrika

    @ Eldorado


    Da Du Fotos von Kapstadt reingestellt hast, nehme ich an, daß Du dort auch wohnst.
    Schöne Stadt in wunderbarer Lage !
    Steigen die Immobilienpreise in Kapstadt noch immer so stark ?
    Wenn man das vor 5 - 6 Jahren gewußt hätte!
    Würde mich freuen, wenn Du eine kurze Nachricht senden würdest !


    Gruß
    INSTERBURG


    P.S. Die Frage bez. "delete" war ernst gemeint !!!

    Hallo Eldorado,


    prima Foto, auch Dein Kommentar :D :D :D ,
    habe sehr gelacht. Habe auch Deine Beiträge vom Januar in Bezug auf die wahren Verhältnisse in RSA gelesen. Die unterscheiden sich sehr krass von der offiziellen Berichterstattung!!!
    Scheint auf Verhältnisse wie in Zimbabwe hinauszulaufen.
    Die Zukunft von SA sieht demnach sehr düster aus.
    Wo sollen die Weißen denn hin ?
    Erschreckend !
    Ich habe RSA -Goldaktien, will die Aktien ja nicht "ewig" halten, aber vielleicht sollte ich wegen politischer Risiken doch reduzieren. Ich erwarte noch dieses Jahr einen deutlich höheren Goldpreis, aber wer weiß....
    Da ist guter Rat teuer!


    Viele Grüße aus dem ,momentan, sonnigen Franken


    INSTERBURG

    Back to garlic, says Manto


    22/04/2005 13:47



    Pietermaritzburg - Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang again stressed the importance of nutrition in regard to HIV/Aids at a Pietermaritzburg gathering on Friday of organisations dealing with the pandemic.
    "Nutrition, nutrition, nutrition," the minister emphasised, saying there was scientific proof that lemon, olive oil and garlic could work wonders for people with Aids symptoms.


    The occasion marked the launch of two handbooks which serve as ethical guidelines for HIV/Aids and general medical research in South Africa.


    After the audience was addressed by university researchers and the Medical Research Council as well as the minister, they were shown a video called Power to the People.


    This is a documentary by two women who used an olive oil and lemon mix to detoxify people with Aids symptoms in KwaZulu-Natal. They say the mix gave these people an appetite. The people were also given garlic, which the video described as a natural antibiotic.


    The filmmakers showed people in various stages of illness from being bed-ridden on the first day of treatment, to being fully mobile in two to three months.


    Tshabalala-Msimang was expected to visit two other hospitals in the Pietermaritzburg area later on Friday.


    In the past Tshabalala-Msimang has come under fire for what has been seen as an overemphasis on natural remedies as opposed to recognised, conventional HIV/Aids medication.


    The names of the books are: Ethics in health research - principal structures and processes, Guidelines on ethics for medical research and HIV preventive vaccine research.


    News24/SAPA

    HANDELSBLATT, Freitag, 22. April 2005, 07:12 Uhr
    Deutsche Konzerne fördern Programme gegen die Ausbreitung von HIV


    Aids bedroht die südafrikanische Wirtschaft


    Von W. Drechsler, S. Kersting; Handelsblatt


    Wie bei Daimler-Chrysler beeinträchtigt die grassierende Aids-Epidemie auch den Produktionsablauf bei BMW und VW, den beiden anderen deutschen Autobauern am Kap. Auch deshalb haben die drei Konzerne mit eigenen Aids-Programmen auf die Bedrohung reagiert.


    KAPSTADT/BERLIN. Das schwarze Krokodil mit dem aufgesperrten Rachen ist nicht zu übersehen. Eindringlich warnt der Aufkleber die Arbeiter im Daimler-Chrysler-Werk im südafrikanischen East London seit Jahren vor Gefahren am Arbeitsplatz. Doch für ein viel größeres Gesundheitsrisiko gibt es bisher keinen Sticker: für das HIV-Virus, das Aids verursacht. Dabei werden in der Krankenstation des Autokonzerns heute schon mehr Angestellte wegen Aids behandelt als wegen eines Arbeitsunfalls.


    Wie bei Daimler-Chrysler beeinträchtigt die grassierende Aids-Epidemie auch den Produktionsablauf bei BMW und Volkswagen, den beiden anderen deutschen Autobauern am Kap. Auch deshalb haben die drei Konzerne mit eigenen Aids-Programmen auf die Bedrohung reagiert. Seit Jahren verteilen sie Medikamente gegen die Immunschwächekrankheit an ihre Angestellten und deren direkte Angehörige. Sie bieten Aids-Tests für das Personal an, HIV-positive Mitarbeiter und oft auch ihre Angehörigen werden betreut, wenn die Krankheit ausbricht. Zudem informieren die Unternehmen in Aufklärungskampagnen.


    Neben dem sozialen Engagement treibt die Konzerne auch wirtschaftliches Eigeninteresse: Manche Industriesparten am Kap – allen voran der Bergbau – müssen im schlimmsten Fall damit rechnen, dass in fünf Jahren fast ein Drittel ihrer Belegschaft der Seuche zum Opfer gefallen sein wird. Anglogold Ashanti, der weltweit zweitgrößte Goldförderer, schätzt zum Beispiel, dass fast jeder dritte seiner Bergleute mit dem Aids-Virus infiziert ist.


    Südafrika ist gewiss nicht die einzige Nation mit einem Aidsproblem. Gleichwohl ist das Land weltweit das einzige, in dem eine stärker industrialisierte Wirtschaft von einer Plage solchen Ausmaßes heimgesucht wird. Rund 5,3 Millionen Südafrikaner oder 20 Prozent der wirtschaftlich aktiven Bevölkerung sind infiziert. Täglich kommen 1 700 Neuansteckungen hinzu.


    Das hat Folgen für die Zahl qualifizierter Mitarbeiter, den Krankenstand, die Produktivität. Genau kann zurzeit niemand beziffern, wie stark die Epidemie das Wachstum bremst. Das südafrikanische Finanzministerium schätzt, dass Aids die Kaprepublik ohne Gegenmaßnahmen mindestens ein halbes Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum pro Jahr kosten würde. Anglogold Ashanti ist hingegen überzeugt, dass die Kosten der Epidemie überschätzt werden und sich in Wahrheit auf weniger als zwei Prozent der Lohnkosten belaufen. Weitaus besser lassen sich die direkten Kosten für die Aids-Programme beziffern: Anglogold Ashanti veranschlagt für dieses Jahr zum Beispiel 1,4 Mill. Euro.


    Vor fünf Jahren entwickelte Daimler-Chrysler gemeinsam mit der deutschen Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) das erste Arbeitsplatzprogramm in Südafrika; Volkswagen, Bosch, Roche, T-Systems und Eurocopter folgten dem Beispiel. Heineken wurde in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo aktiv, Lafarge in Tansania und Nigeria. Verträge gibt es auch mit Unilever und General Motors in Kenia. Seit 2004 bindet die GTZ auch Afrikas Wirtschaftsverbände ein, um mehr Firmen zu erreichen. Denn viele Unternehmen ignorieren noch immer die Gefahr. Nach einer vor kurzem veröffentlichten Studie der Universität Stellenbosch bei Kapstadt haben lediglich 58 Prozent der Finanzdienstleister und 50 Prozent der Firmen im verarbeitenden Gewerbe eigene Aids-Programme. Im Baugewerbe, in der Landwirtschaft und im Einzelhandel, wo sich das oft unausgebildete Personal leichter ersetzen lässt, sind es angeblich sogar weniger als ein Drittel.


    Dennoch macht das Beispiel der großen Vorreiter langsam Schule: Das Interesse an den Programmen werde stetig größer, heißt es bei der GTZ in Eschborn bei Frankfurt: „Und das nicht nur bei den international tätigen Konzernen, sondern auch bei kleineren afrikanischen Unternehmen.“

    Ulfur


    Thanks, mir ist das alles bekannt, aber komischerweise fuellen sich die loecher obwohl der bericht erschreckend ist und andeutet dass die schwarzen hauptsaechlich bald aus Afrika verschwunden sind.


    Kein Wunder, in keinen Puff gibt es Stichproben und monatliche checkups fuer die Damen der Nacht. Das interessiert kein Gesundheitsamt hier. Zweitens mag ein neger keinen gummi, drittens bumsen schon viele mit der anderen Hautfarbe, die Maenner sind meistens schwul, besondern in Kapstadt. Wo die Miner arbeiten sind meistens keine Nutten. Da ist es in Thailand sicherer da die Regierung besser vorgeht als unserer besoffener Mbeki als Staatschef.
    Der sagte, ich kenne keinen der Aids hat ! :D


    Ich kenne da eine wahre geschichte wo gleich 8 weisse bzw. 4 Ehepaare mit Geld und Wohlstand, krank wurden.


    Nur weil eine gelangweilte Lady von Contantia appetit auf den Gaertner hatte und es ihren Freundinnen auch schmackhaft machte, die so allein waren :D.


    BOOM, its a russian roulette here. 8o


    Die Freimaurer wissen schon warum sie den virus in Afrika gepflanzt haben. Neulich las ich einen Report das der Huehnervirus mit Post an Labors in Asien verschickt wurde und versehentlich beim Auspacken ein Typ vom Labor angesteckt hat.


    Ich sahe ein T-Shirt in Asien da war am Ruecken folgendes darauf


    Thailand 2000 SARS
    2001 Chicken Flu
    2002 ? ?(
    2003 ? ?(
    2004 Tsunami


    WHAT NOW ?

    High SA crime 'a perception' :D (they don't show us any figures)


    23/04/2005 09:13 - (SA)


    Cape Town - If crime levels in South Africa were seen to be high, this was more a result of people's perceptions than of reality, says South Africa's top crime analyst.


    According to the government news agency, BuaNews, Chris Paul de Kock, head of police crime information analysis: "People's perceptions exaggerate the extent of crime and that needs to be taken into consideration."


    Addressing the Centre for International Public Studies at the University of Pretoria on Friday, he said South Africa was not threatened by organised crime.


    De Kock said the police unit dealing with organised crime was "on top of the situation", and denied South Africa was being used as a transit point for drug smuggling.


    "Most drugs are being smuggled into South Africa from neighbouring countries."


    Few vehicles smuggled out


    There had been "an impressive reduction" of vehicle theft and car hijackings, he said.


    "Very few vehicles are smuggled out of the country."


    South Africa was part of the Southern African Police Chiefs Co-operation Organisation (Sarpcco), which was established in August 1995 to strengthen co-operation among southern African states and to foster joint strategies for the management of cross-border crimes.


    These included drug trafficking, vehicle theft, firearms, poaching, irregular migrants, traffic violations as well as trafficking in illicit gemstones.


    Countries party to the organisation included Angola, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

    http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3886937



    IT FEELS light years away from the era of apartheid, when the bizarre, brutal apparatus—of race classification, separation and enforcement—would stun the visitor on arrival in South Africa, as though he had landed on a strange planet. This correspondent last saw South Africa two decades ago, when the ruling Afrikaners (those of mainly Dutch descent who had conquered the land and its people three centuries ago, wresting power at the polls in 1948 from the whites who spoke English) had begun to agonise over whether to surrender power or to fight on from within their besieged laager. Yet they were still emphatically, deadeningly, in charge. Whites ran everything worth running.


    Now, after the miracle of the harmonious handover in 1994, the change in mood remains palpable and still, for the most part, inspiring. The visitor arrives in a country which looks, on the face of things, to be normal in a humdrum multi-racial manner. The bullying and cringeing in public places is mercifully over. 8o


    The liberals tend to decry the willingness of big business to co-operate with the ANC. “Anglo licks the ANC's boots,” says Mrs Suzman, referring to the country's premier company. The big corporations are “so scared of government, they just crawl under the table,” says Mr Leon. Black editors as well as white ones are vilified if they dissent, often with the charge that they are defending white privilege.




    ;)E ;)

    Others are already convinced that safety is in hard assets such as property. Well, while South Africa stays in a decreasing interest rate environment, as I believe it is, the property bulls should be fine. As long as they are choosy what they buy, what they pay relative to rentals achievable -- and save up for when tough times come again. Don't take on too much debt - ready for the day when tenants don't pay regularly and interest rates or municipal rates and taxes again rocket and everyone is a seller.


    The property bull in South Africa is making the JSE Property Loan Stock sector even take on some "defensive" sector attributes, like healthcare. A place to invest when worry or fear levels for other sectors rise. There are not many places the JSE investor can go for safety though.


    The main risk is probably from local factors, such as politicians doing and saying things to discourage foreign investment, just the way the good old Nats did. I didn't like hearing about government wanting to regulate judges even more. The rest of the world and thinking South Africans know that every social and economic disaster in history, started with the government of the day interfering with the Rule of Law. This aspect is being watched closely.


    Nor should Mr. Mbeki be telling "The Economist" (4th April) his government intends to accelerate the transfer of wealth from white to black. What happened to the ideal of a non-racist, democratic, free economy?


    Back to safe havens. RSA Gilts - or Treasury bonds as they are called in some countries, could still be at attractive buying levels on a two-year view. Could it be that Mr. Bush and team have to again start cutting rates in the US this year to lessen recession impact? The RSA 157 13.5% 2015 Gilt and the US 30 Year Long Bond yield trend profiles say so. The Rand's resilience after a surprise rate cut says so. The weak US$ and Wall Street says so.


    If the US even breathes it is putting its rate hike bias on hold, SA gilt yields with their still attractive return differentials, become even more attractive. And even though South Africans are happily consuming and buying from outside on credit, interest rate hikes on technical evidence may still be a year or two off if the resources boom continues as expected.
    As nervousness in global markets increases, I guess the US$ will be the earliest indicator for breather or dump on world markets next.




    23 April 2005


    Best regards
    Victor Hugo

    Gold no longer 'the economy' in SA
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The shrinking importance of the gold-mining industry to the South African economy and world production, meant that domestic gold-miners had to accept that policymakers could no longer base their decisions on the fortunes of the industry, Harmony Gold CEO Bernard Swanepoel said yesterday.


    Speaking after the release of poor results for the March quarter - which saw the company report a cash-operating loss of R55-million and a net loss, after a R1,5-billion impairment of fixed assets, of R1,6-billion - Swanepoel said that the industry needed to adjust to the fact that gold-mining was no longer 'the economy' in South Africa and that the country no longer had a major influence on the world gold industry.


    South Africa's production had fallen steadily from its 1 000 t peak in the early 1970s when it produced about 70% of world production. In 2004, output fell a further eight per cent to 342,7 t, its lowest level since 1931, and contributed only 12% to world production. The most recent decline had come on the back of a falling rand-gold price as the local currency recovered strongly and rising utility, input and labour costs.


    He said that the context required a serious rethink about the need for consolidation, which he claimed would be one of the 'obvious remedies'. The statement follows the weekend meeting of the ANC-led tripartite Alliance, where it was resolved that South Africa should seek to support the export economy through a 'competitive exchange rate', but it was unclear what further monetary policy interventions could be taken, particularly given that the Reserve Bank had only recently lowered interest rates.


    Swanepoel argued that companies were forced to take steps to safeguard their future in a far lower average rand-gold price environment, and said that Harmony was far closer to the end of its 'bitter' restructuring phase than to the start.


    Nonetheless, he again lamented the fact that consolidation had become a 'swear word' domestically, blaming this attitude on hostilities around Harmony's bid for Gold Fields. He suggested that, in another context, industry stakeholders would rallying behind the concept. However, he also dismissed Gold Fields CEO Ian Cockerill's call for 'cooperation' rather than consolidation, arguing that there was little evidence that such arrangements would work in the South African environment.


    But Swanepoel indicated that the end was in sight for the protracted battle, suggesting, too, that it he was less convinced that Harmony would need to extend it irrevocable undertaking of support from Norilsk Nickel of Russia - Norilk's support will expire on May 20, but the deal would only go unconditional in about mid-May, once the Competition Tribunal hearing, scheduled for May 3 to 6, had been finalised.


    “If the merger is not approved, which we believe is unlikely, then the deal is off. But if it is approved, the offer becomes unconditional and available for Gold Fields shareholders to decide,” Swanepoel said, adding, sarcastically, that it would be 'more democratic' in accepting the will of the Gold Fields shareholders.


    He lamented the legal costs associated with the bid, revealing that fees were expected to total R58-million 8ofor Harmony alone, and admitting that the company had only budgeted R8-million :D for legal costs at the start of the bid in October.


    In the meantime, Harmony has accelerated its own restructuring efforts in an effort to reduce cash costs to R75 000/kg from over R85 000/kg in March. It had already downsized its employee and shaft numbers; was seeking to retrench a further 4 900 people in the Free State (a process which is being contested by the National Union of Mineworkers in court); had continued, where possible, with the roll-out of continuous operations; impaired key local operations; put several shafts on to care and maintenance at a cost of R35-million a year; and was spending capital on projects that could deliver higher-margin ounces.


    The process had led to a decline in the company's production profile, which was expected to finally stabilise at around 3-million ounces a year.


    Swanepoel was philosophical, though, saying that Harmony had been forced to take some “bitter medicine, the side-effects of which were definitely felt during the last quarter”. But he added that the endeavour was nearing its end and would lead to a repositioning of the company for long-term profitability.

    Weak rand gain to turn to pain


    26/04/2005 15:14



    Johannesburg - A weak rand would give a short-term boost to consumers and economic growth, but would ultimately lead to long-term pain, according to Absa.
    "A rand targeting scenario looks set to mildly benefit the overall consumer picture in the initial stages of the change to such a strategy.


    "This is because, unlike 1997/1998, a weaker rand will take place in conjunction with lower interest rates, providing significant stimulus to credit demand as well as economic and disposable income growth," Absa consumer markets analyst John Loos said in a research note.


    Loos has simulated a weaker rand due to market speculation recently that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is perhaps shifting towards some sort of rand targeting, aimed at weakening the currency.


    This speculation arises from the surprise April 50 basis point interest rate cut, and may be fuelled further by reports of a Tripartite Alliance meeting at the weekend in which the issue of the rand's strength was discussed.


    "While everything merely amounts to speculation at present, and I am not predicting an abolition of inflation targeting, the debate exists and its potential impacts cannot be ignored.


    "I therefore asked the question as to what the impacts may be on consumer markets should this shift indeed be taking place," Loos wrote.


    In the period 1997 to 1998, when emerging markets had lost much of their appeal and the rand had been under severe pressure (in 1996 and then again in 1998 real household consumption expenditure growth measured 3.3% and 1.7% per annum for the 2 respective years, while exports fared significantly better at 5.6% and 4.6% for the two respective years.


    By design


    Currently, the reverse seems to apply, with real export growth for 2004 having grown by 2.9%, and real household consumption by a massive 6.1%.


    The return of a weaker rand, through deliberate policy design, however, would not necessarily be negative for the consumer and the retailer.


    Interest rate cuts would be utilised in an attempt to weaken the currency (as opposed to interest rate hikes to support the currency as in the late-1990s), along with higher levels of SARB intervention in the foreign exchange market.


    Therefore, while consumer product price inflation could be higher due to a weaker currency, the demand stimulus from lower interest rates and the effect that the rand would have in channelling demand more towards locally produced products (with imported goods being more costly) would stimulate short term real economic growth, employment and disposable income growth.


    Consumption would thus receive support not only from cheaper credit, but also from stronger income growth.


    Loos said however that moving past 2006 into the longer term, a few cautions must be issued.


    Firstly, the positive impact of the weaker rand is only a temporary one. Higher inflation in the rand target scenario compared with the baseline scenario implies that domestic cost structures will rise at a faster rate, ultimately leading to a recovery in the real value of the rand.


    Secondly, unless the SARB decides to abolish its inflation target, higher inflation as in the rand target case should ultimately imply a tighter interest rate policy as opposed to the base case.


    This situation may only arise beyond 2006 but it would ultimately have to come, and would then prove to be a bigger negative factor for the consumer in outer years. Therefore, it could be a minor case of short-term gain for long-term pain.


    News24/I-Net Bridge (Business)

    Shacks 'stolen' by cops :D


    26/04/2005 13:38



    Johannesburg - Twenty-seven by-law enforcement officers of Johannesburg's metro police department (JMPD) were arrested for theft on Tuesday after they allegedly demolished three shacks and sold them to a scrap metal dealer.
    JMPD spokesperson Edna Mamonyane said the group, all men, had gone to Diepkloof Zone 6 where they allegedly took a public telephone booth and left it at the department's Wemmer Complex, on the corner of Loveday street and Village road.


    Afterwards they left for an informal settlement in Lawley, south east of the city, and allegedly demolished three shacks and returned to the complex with the corrugated iron.


    The group is accused of proceeding to a scrap dealer in Industria where they were paid a cheque of R1 181 and, after cashing the cheque, split the money getting about R40 each, Mamonyane said.


    The whistleblowers were two colleagues who had been left behind and had not shared in the money, Mamonyane said.


    A six-day internal investigation began and the 27 were arrested by their own colleagues and face charges of theft.


    Mamonyane said they were taken to the Johannesburg Central police station mid morning on Tuesday "in a big truck".


    It was not clear if they would appear in court on Tuesday.


    A departmental regulation forbids them from being put into a police cell or appearing in court in uniform.


    "Their relatives will have to bring them something else to wear," she said.


    The shack did not have possessions in it at the time it was demolished.


    The people arrested were part of a team who focused purely on by-law enforcement, she explained. They wore blue uniforms and were separate from traffic officials.


    They earned about R3 000 a month.


    The telephone booth was still at the Wemmer Complex.


    News24/SAPA

    Das wäre aber langsam auch bitter nötig; trotz steigendem Goldpreis sinken Harmony und GFI lansam ins Bodenlose. Heute nur -4% im Vergleich zu gestern.... ist ja fast eine Outperformance :evil: :evil: :evil:

    Das hoffen alle die in SA Minen drinstecken. Wird wohl auch nicht zuletzt massgeblich davon abhängen was GFI in Kürze für Zahlen präsentiert. Wenn die auch nicht überzeugen gehts nochmal satt nach unten.

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