Das neue Südafrika

@alphoetta

Ich habe bereits geschreiben warum ich noch hier bin. Ich bin auf dem absprungsbrett sobald meine beiden kinder die schule fertig machen.
Meine tochter ist 15 dieses jahr und mein sohn wird 13 jahre.
Es wird knapp mit meinen sohn vorher die kurve zu kratzen.
Beide kinder leben seit meiner scheidung im jahr 1995 bei dem zweiten ehemann meiner exfrau und fuehlen sich dort noch wohl.
Meine exfrau verstarb leider mit 40 jahren an diabetis in 2003.
Sie sind bei mir alle 14zehn tage ueber das wochenende wenn ich im land bin.

Wir haben auch ein riesen problem mit illegalen schwarzen von den nachbarlaendern die ganz einfach in das land koennen. Es werden immer mehr und somit gewalt und verbrechen. Die korrupte polizei haelt ein auge zu und sagt, if you can't beat them, join them !
Falls sie erwischt werden kommen sie am naechsten tag wieder zurueck nachdem sie deportiert sind.

Das alte Suedafrika hatte eine stolze und starke army, einer der besten !.
Die haetten auf command go gleich bis kairo fahren koennen.
Heute sind polizei und armee ein sauhaufen, die guten weissen haben andere jobs, die meisten arbeiten im ausland.
Wir hatten auch eine atombombe, die muste De Klerk Israel geben.
Unter der Apartheid waren wir noch sicher in unseren haeusern und strassen, jetzt ist alles umgekehrt. Man ekelt uns schon irgenwie raus um dann haueser, aber keine jobs zu bekommen. Ich sehe keine zukunft fuer weisse, nur mehr fuer einige schwarze die das loch fuellen werden.

Die meisten weissen sitzen nun in der falle, wie in Zimbabwe.
Sie koennen nirgendswo hin mit ihren Pass.

Na ja, schoen ist die Landschaft trotzdem, es ist nur schade wie das land den bach runter geht.

GNIGHT

XEX

Hier ist ein link fuer Suedafrikanische Zeitungsberichte:

http://www-sul.stanford.edu/de…/southafrica/rsanews.html

Da koennt ihr ebenso lesen was hier los ist.

Leider nur bis 2002, der crime report, very sad, but please read:

http://www.brandon.za.org/crim…s_Sheet_Facts_Figures.htm

Mehr will ich jetzt zu dem thema RSA nicht mehr sagen, es reicht wohl !

Am ende sieht es wahrscheinlich so aus wie in Zimbabwe wo die welt zuschaut oder beide augen zudrueckt.

Johannesburg - Zimbabweans toiling under the "oppression" of long-serving President Robert Mugabe will know no peace until he dies, one of the country's topmost Roman Catholic clerics said on Monday.

Gruss

Eldorado

Ich sagte mal das bei ueber R 6.30/$ ueber laengere zeit viele ihr geld von RSA wahrscheinlich wieder abziehen.Wenn die zinsen/gewinn wegen randverlust in allen Fremdwaehrung geringer werden.
Wir wissen alle das die minen einen hoeheren Randpreis fuer Gold benoetigen da ca. 85% der minen z.Zt. unprofitabel sind.
Der Rand steht momentan auf 6.35 und es ist noch kein grund zur freude. In den naechsten wochen sieht man ob meine theorie stimmt. Wichtig ist wie sich der rand verhaelt nachdem die HMY/GFI sache entgueltig erledigt ist, egal wie. Erst nach diesen deal wird sich alles zeigen. Der Dollar ist momentan ebenso stark gegenueber anderen Waehrungen und bis jetzt zeigt der JSE-Gold index keinerlei Euphorie, trozt dem schwachen Rand. Er ist sogar leicht im minus. Also erstmal warten bevor man handelt, denn Afrika ist voller Ueberraschungseier und Tretminen auf die man laufen kann.

MFG

Eldorado

COSATU THREATENS RAND STRIKE !
Die miltanten Gewerkschaften haben auch mitgewirkt im kampf gegen Apartheid und koennen die Wirtschaft lahm legen mit Streiks.
Man darf sie nicht unterschaetzen und sie schreien nun fuer einen schwachen Rand, mehr Lohn und Arbeitsplaetze.
Der D-Day fuer den Rand kommt.

http://www.finance24.com/Finan…,,1518-24_1681784,00.html

Bezueglich der erwaehnten Property Blase:
Habt ihr lust zum kaufen, dann huepft auch auf diesen Zug.
Wir freuen uns darueber ! Die vermarktung und guten medien berichte ueber RSA im ausland funktionieren anscheinend, genau das gegenteil was es unter den Apartheidszeiten war.Wenn noch mehr ihre arbeitsstelle verlieren dann kann das land in eine art anarchie verfallen.
Ihr werdet ganz schoen verarscht von TV und anderen medien,..alles meine eigene meinung selbstverstaendlich.
Dafuer koennt ihr mir ruhig einen daumen unten geben, es juckt mich auch nicht wenn ihr es macht da wir nicht im alten Rom sind.
Eigentlich sollte man froh sein von leuten berichte zu bekommen die in diesen land sind, egal ob die nun objektiv oder subjektiv sind.
Jeder hat eben seine meinung und ansichten und das ist gut so !
Sonst waere es ja langweilig, oder ?
Es kann auch sein da der eine daumen nach unten fuer RSA und Rand bestimmt ist.

Die Immobilien Blase wird noch groesser :

http://www.finance24.com/Finan…,,1518-25_1682153,00.html

Und da gibt es wiederum Banken die sehen den Rand unter 6R/$
und glauben das gegenteil von mir. Anscheinend ist der Rand ein Ueberraschungsei selbst bis Ostern noch nicht geoeffnet wurde.

http://www.finance24.com/Finan…,,1518-24_1680962,00.html

Ich bin kein hellseher und verlasse mich nur auf mein Gefuehl !

Gruss

Eldorado

"Die vermarktung und guten medien berichte ueber RSA im ausland funktionieren anscheinend,
genau das gegenteil was es unter den Apartheidszeiten war."
================================================

Genau das ist die Ursache für die euphorische Berichterstattung.

Gebührenfinanziertes staatliches TV. Und die privaten

trotten hinterher. Es gibt nur Niedergang in D.

Da kommt das "Wunder" in RSA gerade recht.

Die Masse kriegt das so verkauft..

Es gibt winzige Nischen, die diejenigen, die sich für ihre Lügen

schämen, als Biotop eingefriedet haben.

Das ist auch praktisch, sollte der Schwindel auffliegen.

Herrlich ist zum Beispiel der über 80-jährige

Peter Scholl-Latour. Zu alt und zu bekannt zum Einschüchtern.

Der sagt schonmal, daß es den Farmern in RSA schlechter geht

als im Nachbarland Simbabwe unter Mugabe.

gruss

gogh

Wer meinen Kram liest weiß, daß ich da andere Konsequenzen

als Eldorado für die RSA-Minen draus ableite.

@ gogh

Ich sehe du liest recht viel, leider hast du recht was du schreibst.
Ich bin eigentlich nun muede von meinen RSA berichten und habe nun alles gesagt was ich weiss und wie ich mir hier fuehle.
Die Regierung hier beisst sich eben selber in den Schwanz mit ihrer ganzen politik. Das ganze ist bizarr und uerklaerlich was die eigentlich hinter den kulissen machen und dann spaeter handhaben. Einmal will man geld in das land locken auf der anderen seite verlieren sie mehr an arbeitsplaetzen und die kriminalitaet steigt noch hoeher. Der Export leidet ebenfalls extrem darunter. Sie haben genug geld doch weniger polizei und gefaengniss plaetze. Man baut keine neuen dazu und sie sind schon zu 20% ueberfuellt. Man laesst lieber die verbrecher auf freien fuss und erspart sich das geld.
Ich blicke da nicht mehr durch, es ist eben ein grosser affenzirkus in diesem sehr schoenen land.
Das ist auch ein grund was mich noch hier haelt, ebenso meine kinder und paar freunde die noch nicht abgehaut sind. Ich habe mich in den zwanzig Jahren entfremdet von good old Germany und sehe auch dort was die politiker ohne zustimmung des volkes gemacht haben.
Sie sind an allem schuld !
Ich schliesse nun das Thema ab von meiner seite und Frr der es aufgemacht hat kann es schliessen. Ich will wie gesagt nichts mehr darueber gross reden sonst glauben ein paar leute hier ich will mich aufspielen oder wie einer mal gesagt hat, diesen thread zumuellen etc.. .

Bildet Euch nun selber eine Meinung, ihr habt alles zum lesen, webseiten etc. Ich hoffe meine beitraege haben geholfen um RSA besser zu verstehen.
Wo der Rand nun hingeht, fragt mich nicht mehr.
Es ist mir unerklaerlich warum in so einen scenario er ueberhaupt so stark ist und warum so viel gebaut wird. Alle die ich kenne haben keine Erklaerung dafuer und wundern sich, gleichzeitig gehen sie in deckung.
Es ist ein cowboy land und hippo land mit tiefminen in die man fallen kann wenn man nicht aufpasst. Wenn ich auswandere dann in ein land mit wenig negern, ohne das ich hier rassistisch erscheinen will. ! Es gibt auch gute hier, leider zu wenig.
Ich habe sie alle kennengelernt, die meisten jedoch von euch, noch nicht.

Kleiner Buchtip:

Wer noch nicht David Icke kennt der sollte mal sein buch:
And the truth shall set you free, lesen, oder I'm me, I'm free.
Publisher ist Bridge of Love, vielleicht wegen zensur bei euch nicht erhaeltlich, leider in englisch geschrieben.
Er uebertreibt ein wenig doch vieles ist leider wahr.Spaeter sah ich dass er in vielen recht hat. Mit den buecher die danach kamen musste er sich laecherlich machen,weil man ihn auf die fuesse getreten ist.
Er gab mir mit den zwei eine neue denkweise ueber die Welt und ihre Fadenzieher.

So, jetzt macht ihr hier bitte weiter, dann habe ich etwas zum lesen.

Herzliche Gruesse und danke fuers lesen meiner Kommentare.

Eldorado

Also ich spuere da nichts von geringer inflation, gerade das gegenteil.
Es zeigt wieder wie gelogen wird, ebenso bei euch in Deutschland.

Inflation at record low 30/03/2005 12:23 - (SA)

Johannesburg - South Africa's CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage costs) was up 3.1% year-on-year (y/y)for metro and other areas in February - the lowest CPIX ever - compared with 3.6% y/y in January, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
CPIX was up 0.1% month-on-month (m/m) in February compared with a 0.5% m/m increase in January.

Headline consumer prices - the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas - was up 2.6% y/y in February from a 3.0% y/y increase in January.

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, was up 3.1% y/y in February compared with a 3.7%y/y rise in January.

Inflation beats economists' expectations

South Africa's CPIX, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for its inflation target, was expected to rise to 3.3% y/y, according to a survey of economists conducted by I-Net Bridge. Economists' forecasts for CPIX ranged from 3.0% y/y to 3.5% y/y.

The February headline CPI for all items was also expected to ease with the median forecast at 2.7% y/y and the range from 2.5% y/y to 2.9% y/y.

South African economists have racted to South Africa's consumer price index excluding mortgage rate changes (CPIX)for February.

"The February CPIX figure was slightly better than what I had expected, most probably due to the decline in the petrol price during February. However, inflation is likely to tick up in March and April due to the petrol price in March and April," commented John Loos, Economist at Absa Bank.

Investec economist, Annabel Bishop expects February's CPIX inflation rate to be the low point.

"We expect petrol price hikes, indirect tax increases and rand weakness will cause CPIX to rise back above 4.0% this year. We still expect that the inflation target will be consistently achieved in 2006 and, consequently, that interest rates will remain on hold this year.

Interest rates

With inflation expected to be higher for the rest of the year, economists are predicting interest rates to be kept on hold after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in April.

"The figure is pretty much as expected, but the main concern is on the outlook for the next few months. The trend seems to be higher at the moment and I don't think this figure justifies an interest rate cut at all," said Colen Garrow, economist at Brait.

Absa's John Loos believes there could be room for a rate cut in the second half of the year.

"I don't see any change to the repo rate at the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB's) April meeting. I see think there is room to cut interest rates, but only in the second half of the year.

"The SARB is waiting for a decline in local consumer spending, which I think will start coming through in the months ahead, a decline in the international oil price and a fall in the local petrol price," said Loos.

Die enttäuschende Entwicklung bei DRD-Gold, das vor kurzem stattgefunden Erbeben in SA mit einigen Toten und der Zerstörung einiger Minenschächte - und jetzt das Wasser :

One of the world’s largest miners, AngloGold Ashanti, could lose one-quarter of its output to flooding at three mines in the Vaal Reefs area of South Africa.
According to the news service, the mines have in the past been kept dewatered by pumping at nearby mines owned by troubled producer DRDGold. That company, however, is unexpectedly liquidating one of the mines in question, meaning that pumping could end and cause flooding at AngloGold’s facilities.

Hi

A stronger rand drove the JSE into the red yesterday, after worse-than-expected US GDP data saw the dollar lose ground. Further euro strength against the greenback could see the rand back below the 6.28 level.

A currency trader told I-Net Bridge that 6.28 remained the key level – and if that breaks, the rand could strengthen to 6.24-6.25.

"At the moment, the euro is still bid and it is the only factor to drive the rand through 6.28. If the euro strengthens towards $1.30, the rand should go below 6.28 again," he asserted.

However, should the rand fail to break 6.28, it would likely bounce towards 6.35 again and possibly test its recent worst level of 6.39 reached on Tuesday, the trader said.

XEX

Nicht nur Gold ist in trouble !!!

SA fruit industry in trouble
30/03/2005 21:24 - (SA)

Cape Town - More than 100 000 permanent workers in the deciduous fruit industry and at least 400 000 of their dependants could lose their livelihood as a result of the devastating effect of the drought on the export market in particular.
The gross turnover of the deciduous fruit export market is expected to drop by an estimated R2bn this year from last year.

This warning comes from professor Daan Louw, lecturer in agricultural economy at the University of the Free State and Agri Western Cape spokesperson for the fruit industry.

He said the gross returns for export grapes alone would drop by about R1bn from the previous year.

Louw said more than half of the country's 2 500 deciduous fruit farmers were battling because of the drought.

"People have not lost jobs on a large scale yet, but it could happen within the next few months. This industry is very labour intensive and up to 40% goes into production costs - workers could definitely be affected," he said.

To export fruit, the fruit has to be of top quality and to ensure this quality, orchards have to be irrigated. However, water restrictions have been introduced at most government water schemes.

When fruit is not properly irrigated, the quality is not only poorer, but the fruit is also more susceptible to diseases and damage from the sun.

Many farmers are cutting down on their post-harvest irrigation and this will have an effect on the next year's harvest. The new harvest therefore does not begin with a good reserve.

"Even if we get good rains, the next harvest will also not be good because of the post-harvest cuts," Louw said.

The areas that are worst affected are Olifant's River, Ceres, Tulbagh, Wolseley, Berg River, Hex River and Villiersdorp.

The Elgin-Grabouw area is in a better position and the Langkloof is not affected.

Fussball WM 2010 RSA

Bei einem offiziellen Fussballspiel in Soweto wurde vor kurzen ein Schiedrichter von einen Zuschauer am Platz erschossen weil er glaubte er hat einen falschen Elfmeter gepfiffen. Einen Regenschirm Moerder hatten wir auch, ein neger auf der Uni in Kapstadt war unzufrieden
mit dem weissen professor's bewertung stach ihn mehrmals nieder bis er starb. ...That's a University !!

Gester war ich mit meiner Thai freundin um ihr visa zu verlaengern.
Zu 98% stehen dort weisse in der Schlange die etwas brauchen.
4 Schalter, einer besetzt, 80 min hat das gedauert,plus R 420, ja und dass bei den vielen arbeitslosen ???
Aber das ist normal bei Home Affairs !

Heute habe ich 45min gebraucht ueber die Telefon Auskunft die nummer von der Deutschen Botschaft zu bekommen, viel musik und werbung, dann ansage try later, etc. etc.
Besetzt natuerlich von einen schwarzen den ich nicht verstand und er mich nicht, habe ich dann die nummer doch bekommen nachdem ich buchstabiert habe.

Meiner meinung kann die WM schon alleine aus organisationsgruenden
nicht stattfinden, geschweige von den oeffentlichen transportmitteln die bis heute noch nicht existieren.

But its a sunny day in RSA !

Gruss

Eldorado

Fußball WM 2006 in Germany

hier wird jedes Ticket nur mit Passeport-Nr. auch für

Deutsche verkauft.

Für die Übertragung/Geschenk an einen anderen braucht man den Notar.

Warum wohl?

Weil es hier mehr regnet und Regenschirme in großer Zahl vorhanden sind.

Von den Schiedsrichtern ganz zu schweigen.

Cloudy Morning in Germany

gogh

Der Bin welcher auch immer, mag keinen fussball,glaube ich zumindest !

@Eldo,

ein Bin braucht sich nur als Oliver Kahn zu verkleiden.

Dann kommt er aus Mitleid überall rein. Und mindestens

vier Frauen kann er auch mitbringen.

Jetzt verstößt es in Asien schon gegen die

poltical correctness, den Schiedrichter zu verprügeln.

Wenn´sganz schlimm kommt führen die

Nordkoreaner noch die Parlamentarische Demokratie ein.

gogh

SPIEGEL vom 31.03.05

SCHIEDSRICHTER-PRÜGEL
========================

Nordkorea droht drastische Strafe
===========================

Nach den Ausschreitungen beim WM-Qualifikationsspiel zwischen Nordkorea und Iran (0:2) hat der asiatische Fußball-Verband ein rigoroses Durchgreifen angekündigt. Möglicherweise wird das gesamte Team Nordkoreas bestraft. Große Bedenken meldet Japan an, das im Juni zum WM-Qualifikationsspiel in Pjöngjang antreten muss

You probably already know that 20,000 mineworkers at Harmony Gold's Free State operations (in South Africa) are on strike. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) is threatening to expand the strike action to all of Harmony's operations, affecting as many as 50,000 workers.

A similar NUM strike at Gold Fields that caused 30,000 workers to walk out on Wednesday was called off on Thursday after a court labeled the action illegal. There are strict rules that both sides (the mines and the NUM) have to abide by in order for a strike to be legal.

South African mine production currently accounts for about fourteen percent of global gold mine output, with Harmony producing roughly one quarter of all the gold in South Africa. If the strikes at Harmony continue and impact all of Harmony's mines, global mine production of gold could be reduced by three to four percent -- temporarily, of course. Should the NUM be successful at reinitiating strikes at Gold Fields, half of South Africa's gold production could be at stake, or seven percent of the world's mine production.

These strikes are in response to proposed job cuts by Harmony, and are also an attempt to coerce the mining companies to increase wages by raising the living allowances paid to workers. Labor contracts for the gold mining industry in South Africa are negotiated primarily between the mines and the labor unions, of which the NUM is the largest. The current labor contracts expire in July this year and when the mines and the unions begin their labor negotiations, strikes are often called to put pressure on the mining companies. This year we are seeing tension between the companies and the unions before the labor negotiations even start. Or perhaps this is the start.

If labor negotiations get particularly ugly this year we could see strikes initiated at Harmony, Gold Fields and Anglogold. If the strikes continue for an extended period of time, would the resulting loss of gold production cause the gold price to rise across all currencies?

A general strike in South Africa back in 1987, when South Africa produced forty percent of the world's gold, caused the gold price to temporarily rise by almost ten percent. I find it hard to believe that a temporary loss of gold production from South Africa would have a very material impact on the gold price these days when South Africa only produces fourteen percent of the world's gold.

What's more, there is virtually no evidence that minor, short-term changes in mine production have any lasting impact on the gold price. Looking at the data from 1990 onwards I found no correlation between the difference between mine supply and fabrication demand and the gold price. See "Gold, a commodity?" at http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=47 for more details.

In the unlikely event that we do see a spike in the gold price due to labor unrest in South Africa, remember, it's a spike. It's not the marker of the beginning of a long-term increase in the gold price. If the gold price rises in anticipation of a general strike in South Africa it will most likely decline rapidly soon afterwards.

Gold mining is very important to the South African economy. Both the mining companies and the labor unions understand this and as much as they'll threaten each other and poster, they will resolve their differences and life will go on.

From a practical standpoint, as investors, rather than looking at the labor situation and wondering what impact it will have on the gold price we should be looking at those companies that appear to be taking it on the chin, but that we know will not get knocked out: Harmony and Gold Fields.

If you've been waiting for a good opportunity to buy South African gold stocks I suspect you're looking at one right now. And between now and July, when labor negotiations start in earnest, you may get an even better one.

That's not to say the South African gold stocks have bottomed. But they're certainly a better investment today than they were six months ago. I'm also not advocating buying South African gold stocks. I'm not convinced that the strength in the South African rand is behind us, and the combination of currency risk with the social and political risk in South Africa makes South African gold mining stocks unattractive in my opinion. But that's just my opinion. The point is that if you're going to buy South African gold stocks then buying them during labor negotiations, when they typically get trashed in the news and whacked in the market, is a much better strategy than buying them when everyone loves them.

Paul van Eeden

Selling South Africa, Inc.
By: Barry Sergeant
Posted: '31-MAR-05 15:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- The news is out: South Africa’s current-account deficit exploded by 135%, from R18.9 billion for 2003 as a whole, to R44.4 billion for 2004. The single biggest item within the current-account, the trade account, collapsed from a surplus of R26,6 billion in 2003 to just above zero in 2004.
Seen another way, the current-account deficit measured an increase of 113%, as it rose from 1,5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2003 to 3.2% in 2004. The explosion was driven by a rand bull market - particularly against the dollar - of 36 months’ duration. The process has steadily cut the cost of imports, driving inflation to historic lows, pushing interest rates to the lowest levels in 24 years, and generating, of course, a consumer boom of note.

The problem is that current-account deficits must be financed, and with foreign capital, on which front, domestic officials have so far steadfastly insisted, there have been no real challenges. The reality is that South Africa has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, attracting “hot” money from global capital portfolio flows into domestic overnight accounts.

Such transactions, known as “carry trades” can dry up in hours, never mind days or weeks. Despite similar, low rates of inflation in South Africa and the US, core interest rates are, respectively, 7.5%, against 2.75% in the US, where rates are rising. So far, it has been a no-brainer to borrow in dollars and invest in rands.

But it may be no coincidence that the heaviest bloodletting in global stock markets during March 2005 was seen not only in global emerging markets (GEMs), but specifically in those GEMs with worrying, and rising, current-account deficits. The majority of the effected stock markets are located in the axis that links emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

Measured in dollar terms, stock markets in Turkey have fallen 19% this month, the steepest fall of any bourse in the world, followed, in order, by Hungary, Poland, South Africa (-12%) and the Czech Republic. Asian markets, which are underpinned by current-account surpluses, sometimes-massive ones, fell by lesser amounts.

Certain current-account deficits have made for big news in the past few years. But where South Africa’s latest alarming figures have been all but ignored by investors, there has been no question that the US current-account deficit is the world’s most watched figure. In its publication World Economic Situation and Prospects 2005, the UN stated that the US current-account deficit, which last year rose 25% on 2003’s figure to a record high of $666 billion, was simply the largest external imbalance in the world. The UN warned over the persisting possibility of “an abrupt and globally damaging correction.”

However, the attitude towards South Africa’s current-account deficit may at last be changing. Monde Mnyande, head of research at the Reserve Bank, South Africa’s central bank, this week stated that the current-account deficit “is something to worry about.”

In a note to clients, back in January, Citadel Investment Services, noting that South Africa’s international trade balance had swung from a sizeable surplus to a gaping deficit, argued that “if the pace at which this trade balance has deteriorated were to continue, South Africa would be in a similar position to that of the US in a matter of six to nine months.”

March’s bloodletting in global market set in on March 22, when the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, raised core interest rates for the seventh consecutive time, and hinted that it may accelerate its programme of further hikes, given signs of rising inflation, not least inspired by record dollar crude oil prices.

That triggered a global switch out of GEM equities and bonds, into dollar assets. However, it is now equally clear that not one of the 24 developed country stock markets is going to end March with a net gain.

The bottom line is that global financial risks are on the rise. Previous periods of Federal Reserve monetary tightening have typically culminated in a financial crisis, not least devaluation of the Mexican peso in 1994, and the Asian currency crisis in 1997-8, to mention just two examples.

Back to the present tense, where South Africa’s current-account deficit continues to balloon. As Shireen Darmalingam, an economist at Standard Bank puts its, “the rand’s relative strength has thus far dampened exporting companies' profits and has hurt trade competitiveness. This could cause the trade deficit to widen in the months ahead. Domestic demand, however, is likely to continue supporting imports in the coming months.”

Hi

Traps for RSA

Ich habe gestern erfahren das eine deutsche firma hier die modersten geschwindigkeitsmesser und cameras aufgestellt hat mit einem neuen deal der einerzeits diese gratis aufstellt und wartet sowie das die firma dafuer 40% von den strafen die bezahlt werden davon bekommt.
Die schwarzen die in blechhuetten wohnen zahlen bestimmt keine strafe da es kein meldegesetz und TUV gibt. Den gibt es nur bei Eigentuemerwechsel und die meisten fahren ohne fuehrerschein herum.
Ebenso braucht man nur Kraftfahrzeugssteuer jaehrlich bezahlen und man braucht keine haftpflicht versicherung in diesen land. Der einzige schutz dagegen ist eine vollkasko. Sonst sagt der neger, sorry and bye, bye !

Arms for RSA (Backhand deals ??)

'Arms offsets R5bn off target'
01/04/2005 11:51 - (SA)

Johannesburg - South Africa's industrial offset programme relating to the country's multi-billion rand arm deal has come under fire from the official opposition - with the focus falling on Ferrostaal for allegedly not achieving nearly 70% of its commitment.
The Democratic Alliance is calling for the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mandisi Mphalwa, to impose penalties on 3 of 5 corporations involved in the arms deal.

Included in the arms deal is the purchase of 4 corvettes from the German Frigate Consortium, 3 submarines from Ferrostaal, 28 Gripen fighters from BAE/SAAB, 24 Hawk jet trainers from BAE and 25 light utility helicopters from Agusta. Thales is involved in the provision of the weapons system for the corvettes.

Ferrostaal, which represents the German Submarine Consortium, has not provided R4bn in investments in terms of its offset commitments, claims shadow trade and industry minister Enyinna Nkem-Abonta, a Democratic Alliance MP.

He told a news conference at parliament that BAE/SAAB and Thales were also defaulting on their offset obligations - to a combined value of some R5bn.

"The 1999 arms deal was signed on the condition that the international contractors benefiting from the procurement would direct specified amounts of investment to South Africa as part of the National Industrial Participation programme. All of the contractors also agreed to specific sales commitments that would form part of their offset contracts.

Penalties

"The estimated penalty that can be imposed for this shortfall is R136m (for Ferrostaal)," said Nkem-Abonta. In addition BAE/SAAB's shortfall was R845m or 6% of its obligation "with an estimated penalty of R315m. Thales' shortfall is R263m or 15% "with an estimated penalty of R93m".

Drawn from official documents Ferrostaal has invested just €220m (about R1.7bn) in offsets compared to the €720m (about R5.8bn) pledged by the end of 2004. It had created just 297 jobs.

Its total obligation is about R24bn by 2007 with a contract value of R8.2bn for the provision of submarines.

BAE/SAAB had meant to invest and be involved in procurement sales to South African companies to the tune of $2.3bn (about R14bn) - including $300m in investment and $2bn in procurement sales.

In fact by April 2004 this had reached US$2.16 billion (about R13.4bn), including $300 million in investments and $18.6 billion in sales. This was a shortfall of about $134m or about R840m - or about 6% of offset obligation as at April last year.

Thales was down 15% on obligations by the first milestone or by about R260m (US$41.7m) by April 2003 - the latest figures available.

However, Agusta had achieved its first offset milestone in April 2004 of $42.6 million (R265m) and Thyssen Krupp (German Frigate Consortium) had achieved its first milestone of $56.5 million (R352m) while for procurement sales but the assessment for $147 million (R916m) for its offset investments is to be carried out this year.

The total offset obligation so far was R23.5bn of which ... R17.5bn has been forthcoming, say DA researcher Tim Harris. These figures do not include the offset investments of Thyssen Krupp.

Rand action threat- govt calm 29/03/2005 20:31 - (SA)

Government will continue to consult with business and labour to overcome unemployment and increase investment in spite of a threat by the Cosatu to strike against unemployment and the strong rand.

In a calm reaction to the Cosatu threat, government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said the process of consultation was continuing.

Cosatu has warned of a "job-loss bloodbath", saying spiralling unemployment was already behind unrest in poorer townships.
"We are finalising some of the economic programmes for this year, especially through our consultations in the Presidential working groups," said Netshitenzhe.

The SA Chamber of Business (Sacob) said it did not support Cosatu's approach to resort to industrial action and the DA called it "illogical".

"Many of their 'demands' will worsen unemployment, while strike action itself will further deter investors from establishing job-creating operations in South Africa," said DA finance spokesman Ian Davidson.

Sacob called for a solution to the problem "through proper dialogue through the correct channels, in which the determinant of the rand's value through market forces must not be disregarded."

"The chamber is well aware that many businesses are under serious pressure from circumstances associated with the current strength of the rand," said Sacob spokesman Bill Lacey in a statement.

It also suggested that a further liberalisation of exchange control might provide one possible option.

Cosatu spokesman Patrick Craven told Sapa no dates had been set for the strike. However, the union body would "definitely be mobilising among all members, especially among mining and textile workers.

"If we see a serious move on behalf of business to cancel retrenchments that have already been announced - that would be progress."

A Cosatu statement over Easter weekend called on the government to declare a state of emergency regarding job losses. It also called for strong measures be taken to end the overvaluation of the rand, especially through a reduction in the real interest rate.

The DA called the interest rate demand "ridiculous", saying it showed "an alarming misunderstanding of the reality of monetary policy in South Africa".

Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine said: "I do share Cosatu's concern about the high rand causing people to lose jobs.

"But the trend of the world and South Africa has been more and more towards high-tech and knowledge-intense activities."

He said labour-intensive sectors such as mining, manufacturing and agriculture were worst hit in the climate of unbalanced economic growth performance driven by a strong rand and reduced pressure on interest rates.

"Tough as it is for Cosatu", South Africa could not employ more people in these low-skilled sectors as long as there was a minimum wage and countries such as India and China were prepared to pay workers less, said Jammine.

AUF NACH CHINA !