Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Will irgendwie keine richtige Freude aufkommen heute

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif]

Gold und Silber Bugs sind aber nicht die einzigen die heute keine Freude haben!

Die Aktien Bullen haben heute gewaltig eins auf's Gemüt gekriegt!

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Die aktuellen Rohstoff, und Comodities Preise!

Soviele rote Pfeile habe ich in den letzten Monaten noch nie gesehen

http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp

Soviel freigewordene Mittel wollen doch wieder investiert werden. Das ganze *Fiat Money* wird doch jetzt wohl nicht etwa in Staatsanleihen, und Obligationen flüchten wollen.

Morgen gehts vielleicht schon wieder zurück ins Gold!

kalle14

Zitat

Da kommt noch ganz ,ganz Dicke wat auf uns zu!!!!!!!!!

Aber wat den Kalle?

Das ist die grosse Frage!

Wenn ich wie heute (fast) sämmtliche Comodities nachgeben sehe, wenn die Börsen fast alle weltweit an Wert verlieren. Wenn Gold und Silber ebenfalls stark verlieren, Oel jedoch steigt, und der Dollar mit dazu, habe ich so ein komisches Gefühl im Magen, das mir sagt, irgend was kann da verdammt nochmal nicht mehr stimmen.

Als ich heute die Meldungen zum Weltgeschehen, speziell auch die über Saudiarabien, gelesen habe, kam mir wieder einmal mehr in Erinnerung, dass W.Bush vor dem letzten Irak Einmarsch, vom Parlament verlangt hatte ihm militärisch freie Bahn gleich für mehrere arabische Länder zu gewähren, nicht nur für den Irak. Glücklicherweise wurde dieses Ansinnen vom US Parlament damals abgelehnt.

Heute mehren sich aber die Zeichen, dass er eventuell schon bald das US Parlament wieder zu weitergehenden Ermächtigungen drängen könnte. Dazu braucht er aber, vorderhand wenigstens noch, wirklich handfeste Gründe. Die hat er noch nicht. Doch ich glaube er arbeitet gerade daran sie zu schaffen.

Ich befürchte, dass falls er seine Wiederwahl bewerkstelligen kann, wird wirklich wat ganz dickes auf uns zukommen.

Amerika kann, und wird keinen Oelpreis von 100 Dollar pro Barrel abwarten, bis "gehandelt" wird. Die Europäer werden ihm wohl aus Eigennutz dabei ebenfalls unterstützen. Ob der Rest der Welt dabei nur zusieht wie beim Einmarsch in den Irak darf stark bezweifelt werden.

Es ging, und geht weiter ums Oel, und Machterhalt Kalle!

Gold stört dabei vorderhand noch!

Gold wird aber trotzdem im Preis steigen, weil es plötzlich auf einmal alle haben wollen, und nicht genug davon da ist. Genau so wie beim Oel.

Wenn es soweit ist, werden sich Millionen von Papier Gold, und Derivative Besitzer noch gewaltig wundern.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

May 6 - Gold $387.80 down $5.40 - Silver $5.80 down 29 cents

Orchestrated Gold Share Sell-off Yesterday Predicted Today’s Action

Zitat

"But actually, he thought as he re-adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even a forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. For example, the Ministry of Plenty's forecast has estimated the output of boots for the quarter at 145 million pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two millions. Winston, however, in rewriting the forecast, marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions, so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfulfilled. In any case, sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions, or than 145 millions. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. Likelier still, nobody knew how many had been produced, much less cared. All one knew was that every quarter astronomical numbers of boots were produced on paper, while perhaps half the population of Oceania went barefoot. And so it was with every class of recorded fact, great or small. Everything faded away into a shadow-world in which, finally, even the date of the year had become uncertain."George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty Four

Dear Congressional Staff member (sometime in 2006 again):

It’s a day later and you will be able to recognize (by what transpired the past 18 hours) how obvious and extensive the manipulation of the gold market really was. As noted in yesterday’s commentary the gold shares collapsed in the last 30 minutes for no apparent reason. The US stock market was quiet, as were all the financial markets. Only the gold shares were battered in a bout of program trading. What you need to do is find out who the major gold share sellers were and then tie them to a pattern over the years.

The hardest core conspiracy theorists in the GATA camp emailed me last evening categorically stating gold was going to be mauled today by The Gold Cartel as a result of yesterday’s obnoxious ploy by this bunch of crooks. They were dead on, as usual. Once again the junta stole money from honest Americans. Clearly The Gold Cartel head maestro put out the late word yesterday to his colleagues in the cabal that gold was to be hit hard today, which is why Goldman Sachs was selling during the Comex session. This latest manipulation could be the second most blatant one after the Bank of England gold sale auction announcement in 1999. What we have here is nothing less than a criminal operation run by a bunch of white-collar thugs. They must be punished and some need to be put in jail. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee now has 7 plus years worth of evidence on these bums and will be happy to bring much of it to Washington to present to your investigating committee.

I look forward to hearing from you.

BILL MURPHY
CHAIRMAN
GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE

After The Gold Cartel trashed the shares yesterday, they went after gold and silver today. GOLDMAN SACHS was a featured seller once again this morning.

Both gold and silver were pounded from the get-go and spent the day submerged. There was no bounce at all. Figuring out this market on a short-term basis has been brutal. I certainly am no help, not when you have a 500-pound gorilla who pushes both gold and silver wherever it wants and when it wants to. The gorilla seems to have a temper tantrum the worse it gets for the US economic, financial market and geopolitical scenes. Thus, the more gold should being going higher, the more the cabal takes it down, giving us the "Reverse Gold Barometer" effect.

Tomorrow’s US jobs report should have the markets all over the place. No way I can predict how gold and silver are going to react. What I am very comfortable with is stating those who hang on to their physical and share positions are going to be very happy campers in six months.

The funds joined Goldman Sachs' early selling lead, but then stopped after an hour with gold down $5 to $6. The cabal was looking to get more bang for their buck than they ended up with.

The gold open interest rose 1442 contracts to 248,305, while the silver open interest rose 893 contracts to 94,059.

A silver market update. The fundamental news is just as bullish as it was months ago. A prominent dealer now has to pay a 50 cent premium to obtain small lots. He used to pay 12 cents. Large buyers who want hallmarked bars from the refiners such as Engelhard and Johnson Matthey have to pay a hefty 32 cent premium. It is still difficult to accumulate silver in size.

Silver has come right back to its 200-day moving average.

The bond vigilantes are doing their thing, taking long rates up in the US because of the obvious growing inflation. The 30-year finished the day at 105 31/32, down 13/32, a new low for the move. The bond market is too big for the Working Group on Financial Markets and The Gold Cartel to control; therefore, it functions like a normal free market usually does. In the late 1970’s inflation was rampant in the US. Interest rates soared, the dollar was strong, and gold exploded. What has changed since then: The Gold Cartel, plain and simple.

The dollar rose .59 to 90.09, while the euro fell .90 to 120.66.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report

Bridgewater on TIPS

Thursday, May 06, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $ 9.89, PM $8.51, with world gold at $391.70 and $391.95. Ample for legal imports. Standard London today notes: "exceptional physical demand from the Indian sub- Continent", which, from a firm which actually does deal in India (unlike some others) is meaningful.

Japan, re opening, traded the equivalent of 24,836 Comex lots, with open interest falling 673 Comex. World gold slipped 20c from the NY close, to $393.15. (NY traded 42,145 contracts yesterday: open interest rose 1,442 lots.)

Persistent selling throughout the NY day yesterday capped gold. Then the tell- tale abrupt sell-off (some 2%) in the major gold shares in the last half hour of Stock Exchange activity warned experienced observers of today’s raid, which was entirely a US phenomenon. Notably, gold itself showed no inclination to weaken before today’s Comex open.

HKSB has published a useful piece of research discussing the relationship between US interest rates and gold:

Zitat

"… plotting gold against the Fed Funds rate (both nominal and real) over the last twenty years shows virtually no correlation whatsoever."

Furthermore:

Zitat

"In three out of the four occasions since the mid-1970s when US interest rates were increased after a period of relatively low rates, the dollar was lower rather than higher in the period following the move to higher rates."

Even more comforting from a forward looking point of view was yesterday’s Treasury announcement of hugely increased TIPS offerings. Bridgewater comments:

Zitat

"On Wednesday, the US Treasury made a comprehensive announcement on their plans for the US TIPS market going forward. The plan is very aggressive…the US Treasury would like to see TIPS compete against real assets such as real estate and timber in institutional portfolios."

and adds:

Zitat

"The rapid increase in the TIPS program comes at a time when inflation-indexed (I/I) bond markets around the world are also growing extremely rapidly… The increase in global supply and number of sovereign issuers has caused inflation-indexed bonds to evolve into a global asset class from what was a collection of largely independent sovereign markets a few years back."

Needless, to say, the fact that the US Treasury judges the strong appetite for inflation-proofed securities is likely to be sufficiently sustainable to be worth responding to is an odd background for heavy NY pressure on gold.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Another Hail Mary comeback by the DOW. It has become almost as predictable as the orchestrated gold interventions. After dropping 135 points, it rallied to close at 10,241, down 69. The DOG finished at 1938, down 19, around its 200-day moving average.

"The Bank of England raised rates to 4.25%."

The US inflation picture continues to worsen, one more reason for The Gold Cartel to attack gold, the poor man’s guide to the US inflation picture.

May 6 - WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. first quarter business productivity grew at a respectable pace, the government said on Thursday, but unit labor costs unexpectedly edged higher in a mild challenge to the Federal Reserve's view inflation is no threat…

Unit labor costs jarred slightly with this outlook, rising 0.5 percent over the first quarter, and the fourth-quarter measure was revised up to an unchanged reading from the originally reported 0.4 percent decline. Wall Street had expected no change in first quarter unit labor costs. -END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve's New York Office "Desk" issued $9 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today, May 6th 2004. These repos will expire or "mature" on May 20th 2004. They join other un-expired issuances that constitute the "repo pool". It is this pool of assets that the Federal Reserve's primary dealers (Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, USB etc) have access to for conducting what the Fed calls their "monetary policy".

Their "monetary policy" logically does not support gold, gold shares or commodities in general since the "value" of these items compete with the government's money as a store of private wealth and they have done so for millennia.

Instead, the efforts of the Fed and primary dealers, who routinely receive effective securities grants (in Billions of never-to-be-returned permanent open market operations) are directed to support the paper bond and equity markets through a vast array of interventional tools not least of which is the repo pool for the DOW and the GSE's (Fannie and Freddie) for the bond market.

The DOW's support flows from the primary dealer's purchase of the DOW futures, "diamonds". This futures market is far smaller than the DOW itself and yet nearly all trading houses, mutual funds and institutional buyers look to the futures position and are guided by its general direction. Thus, the DOW futures "tail" wags the DOW "dog". Indeed, all futures markets possess the same kind of influence. Fannie and Freddie are the conduit for a rising sea of government credit (into housing) which fuels their growing paper power.

The moving averages of the repo pool shown on my charts reveal that each time the DOW slipped it was due to a reduction in the aggregate repo pool's own moving average (see:
http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis

for today's repo updated chart.

The "Iraq War Rally", slickly peddled by the Fed's primary dealers, was no rally at all. It was the Fed itself through its acolytes ramming the markets higher as an anesthetic to what they surely knew to be a financial disaster in the making. Paul O'Neill and Lawrence Lindsay were only two of the most visible financial opponents to the invasion (proving that voiced principles are dangerous).

Examine the orange spheres at the beginning of the War. They carry much more interventional "weight" than temporary repos. They were placed there to juice the market and the are always ready to prevent a DOW fall.

But the narcotics of the repo pool lose their potency over time as the sickly DOW patient builds tolerance to the drugs of government intervention. The black line on my repo chart points exactly towards 11,750 on Labor Day 2004, just in time for the election. It is like propping up a dead banana republic dictator in the castle window to reassure the masses. The generalissimo DOW isn't what CNBC says it is.

In the commodities markets the dwindling supply of gold coupled with oil's growing scarcity are twin threats that can't simply be printed away by greedy bureaucrats, which may come as a surprise to Ben Bernanke's twisted "printing press" logic.

But what can be the exit strategy?

Many, if not all, macroeconomic experts continue not to see one. In my view the COMEX precious metals section will simply default, trapping (with zero gain) all those who hope for leverage in the precious metals markets. The financial propaganda will brand gold bugs as terrorists funders.

This once unthinkable event, isn't so unthinkable in today's world of unthinkable occurrences. The bond markets would muddle through with their own government futures ramming tools (see:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/bolser121703.html)

the DOW would do likewise while the gold markets of the outside world would open days or weeks later thousands of dollars per ounce higher. Zero supply, infinite demand. In the words of the Bank of England's Sir Eddie George: "...an abyss".

When the last bar is gone, the unthinkable COMEX default will happen and the way to prepare is to buy metal on the dips and especially solid small exploration firms. Thus one is taking the safe path of metal and obtaining their leverage with exploration which will benefit greatly.
Mike

Chuck checks in twice:

Bill:
Needless to say, these days are very trying. The most certain thing is the imminent change in all the markets. It is so frustrating to see the gaps in the golds day in and day in while the stock market confidently holds all day.

It is obvious to me that we are near a watershed event. The complacency is about to change into fear and then panic. My guess is that we are going to shift gears in the commodity ring. Even a $40 oil brings yawns and boredom. What will it take?

As the golds continue their descent, my thoughts are why are they doing something that they have never done before except in 1974 when they spiked up in October and the market bottomed that very week. But this time, the stock market have not been declining. This means something either the final exhaustion of the sellers or a monumental deflationary collapse. There are too many technical signs that indicate that we are near the final washout……

Several things stand out here technically. One is the relentless dumping of the smaller exploratory companies without care to price, and the gaps down in the listed golds every day. The other is the huge change in the COTS in the past few weeks. I assume this means something as Sinclair has been pointing out. We have never had this kind of sell off in a stock market that is so vulnerable. I can understand if the stock market has been crashing like the golds. I have allowed for the gold selling off in a liquidity crisis, but not selling off in advance.

Also, the dollar should be ready to fall here, so at this point I can't get too vexed. Even today, instead of the market being down a couple hundred of points, it's rallying on a Thursday close. What markets!
Chuck

This past Saturday I went to a Black-Tie affair in Dallas to support battered kids. The place was packed, but the attendance was modest. However, notables were there in abundance. Texas congressmen like Pete Sessions, TV reporter Ashley Banfield, the host of the TV show "The Bachelor," etc. For the first time since maybe high school I said the Pledge of Allegiance AND sang "God Bless America" back to back. For a brief moment it brought back cherished memories of how I used to think of our country. It was stirring. Then, I came back to the real reality show and to how far we have fallen. No free press, no free markets, an Administration who takes to war on false pretenses, one which has maimed and killed so many brave soldiers (inflaming the world in the process), and now scandal after scandal is surfacing about what we are doing over in Iraq. This is sickening:

Wed, May 05, 2004

U.S. Troops Said to Mistreat Elder Iraqi
By SUE LEEMAN, Associated Press Writer
LONDON - U.S. soldiers who detained an elderly Iraqi woman last year placed a harness on her, made her crawl on all fours and rode her like a donkey, Prime Minister Tony Blair 's personal human rights envoy to Iraq said Wednesday.

–END-

Sure, this is not representative of our armed forces, but more and more of these stories are popping up. What is really awful is our military leadership, (Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Myers) couldn’t even be bothered to read the report on this disgrace within months after it was written. Both ought to be replaced along with so many others in New York and Washington. Until drastic changes are made across the board, the US will continue to deteriorate.

They will say what they want about GATA. What I am proudest of is the efforts and results the GATA ARMY has achieved over the last five years. "Bad things happen when good people do nothing" does not apply to so many in our camp.

The establishment needs to be put in its place for a change. My friend Aaron Russo is a man who can do it. From Richard Russell commentary last evening:

To make a short story shorter, in the space two-and-a-half years, Bush has succeeded in turning the entire Arab world against us. At the same time, he's succeeded in creating a widening rift between the US and Europe.

Aw let's skip all the politics and backbiting and complaining, But wait, not if my old buddy, Aaron Russo can help it. Aaron, as leader of the Libertarian Party, will be running for US president -- and I can tell you on good authority that Aaron is mad as hell, and he's not going to take it anymore. In fact, Aaron never has "taken it." If you don't believe me, check out Aaron Russo and the Libertarian Party (they actually believe in the Constitution) on Google. –END-

Yesterday’s blatant Gold Cartel selling of the shares ahead of today’s orchestrated gold and silver sell-off set me off again today about Pan American Silver CEO Ross Beaty’s inane comment concerning "this conspiracy-theory drivel." The man must be brain dead on the subject, or blind. Or maybe his company is in such debt with the bullion banks in the cabal, he has taken to refusing to acknowledge how they have been beating his brains in all these years?

I’ll never forget talking four years ago to one of his major supporters and visible shareholders, Bill Fleckenstein, who is a talented fellow for the most part. I thought Fleckenstein might be a good one to get in our camp. He could not have been more hostile. Bewildered, I took a gander at his web site. Mr. Fleckenstein had one major sponsor at the time: JP Morgan. That said it all. The daft Mr. Beaty can be reached at:

rbeaty@panamericansilver.com

Good grief, as if today wasn’t bad enough:

Bin Laden Said to Offer Gold for Killings

Associated Press

CAIRO, Egypt - A statement attributed to Osama bin Laden offered rewards in gold Thursday for the killing of top U.S. and U.N. officials in Iraq.

The transcript of an audio recording dated Thursday appeared on a Web site known for militant Islamic messages. The Web site gave links to hear the statement, but none were working.

"You know that America promised big rewards for those who kill mujahedeen (holy warriors)," the transcript read. "We in al-Qaida organization will guarantee, God willing, 10,000 grams of gold to whoever kills the occupier Bremer, or the American chief commander or his deputy in Iraq."

He was referring to L. Paul Bremer, the chief U.S. administrator in Iraq, and top military officials.

The authenticity of the statement could not immediately be verified.

-END-

Probably another Gold Cartel planted story!!!

Derek VanArtsdalen from San Antonio:

Hi Bill,

Here's Jim Sinclair's input on what's happening in the gold market right now. It's apparently the biggest paint job since the Golden Gate bridge. While the suckers are being bullied out, the smart money is positioning for the upside. Only makes sense, probably, since SOMEBODY's on the other side of the action. I mean, there's still a buyer for every sale made, right?

Here's Jim's latest:

"News flash! It’s the same old game being played. Gold was firm in the US overnight and as the COMEX opening approached and the cash market shifted to COT, market makers in the US weakened gold into the open and then by the grace of COT, COMEX traders moved it lower.

This routine is almost a repeat of what we saw in the 70’s. The actors may be different but the game is the same: cover your short positions before going long.

Rest assured, there will be no Academy Award for this performance. These guys are about as smooth as number 10 sandpaper on a baby’s behind. All you need to do is properly interpret the reports. Of course, not all of you have the facilities to do this. On top of that, it requires the floor knowledge of who is doing what in what size and the actual timing. The sells are small but loud. The buys are big but quiet. The operation is painted on the COMEX and the covers are in the cash market and the COMEX.

So here is another variety of "Rumour Control." There has been an attempt to manipulate gold in the past few weeks by "Chart Painting." Is it not natural that major COT traders would try to manufacture a chart that helps them shift from the short to the long side? Would it not be a temptation for those influential enough to get articles into major financial publications to start the story that China is going to collapse along with demand for key industrial commodities such as base metals. How many commentators seeing that story simply accept it and repeat it to their viewers. What a great way to move a market into your ball court.

So my conclusion is that COT has only a few days left because their action is so transparent that the professional community will mimic COT in going to the long side. Major cyclical changes have taken place and the fundamentals more than ever support the long side. Today’s German manufacturing report is not what the Euro is made of.

This week or early next should limit COT’s attempt to paint the charts and gold will take off to and through $419.70 and $430.31.

In 101 days or less it will trade at $480."

Keep at it, Bill, and don't let the bastards get you down...
Derek

$480 sounds awfully good to me. I believe COT is Jim’s term for Gold Cartel. Good to have Jim around. He has me looking calm and conservative.

A GSS note:

Bill,

After several days of relentless selling by Morgan Stanley, as you could see by the screen captures of the last half hour yesterday, we finally may have some good news on the Golden Star front. As you can see by this summary of today’s trading, Morgan Stanley was still the largest net seller, but if you look to the bottom of the chart, you’ll see the largest net buyer was Goldman. This is the first time I’ve seen Goldman appear as a large net buyer since last fall. As they shorted the stock a few dollars higher, this turns out to be a pretty good trade for them. As I mentioned yesterday, brokers can short on the TSX and cover on the AMEX and the AMEX only shows market makers but not house positions as the TSX does, so it’s difficult to be certain about who’s doing what.

In the end, it’s still disgusting that these guys get away with trading like this.

Take care,
Bill Christie

The gold share sell-off continued today as investors chucked them with abandon. The XAU dropped 2.23 to 82.53, while the HUI fell 6.34 to 178.40. Both indexes have come back to fill their gaps left two days ago.

Just went for my daily workout before finishing this commentary, a trot up beautiful Beverly drive in Highland Park, which is adjacent to Dallas. Good to get the negativity out of my system.

Who knows what the next week is going to bring. The more bullish the gold fundamentals get, the more The Gold Cartel leans on bullion. It is perverse. That said, I am in Jim Sinclair’s camp when it comes to the future. By year’s end the gold and silver prices are going to stun most observers. My two largest holdings by a good margin are Golden Star Resources ($4.49 down 23 cents) and Samex Mining (64 cents, down 8 cents). My year end prediction for Golden Star is between $11 and $14. For Samex it is $1.50 to $7, depending on drill results this summer and fall.[/size]

We shall see.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!