Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Nach welcher Berechnungsgrundlage man beim Goldpreis im 1. Quartal dieses Jahres von einem 150 Jahreshoch spechen kann, ist mir ein völliges Rätsel?


    Ob das wohl etwas mit dem Namen Haliburton zu tun hat?


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]


    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/324952.htm


    Second quarter will be hedge barometer


    By: Dorothy Kosich


    Posted: '25-MAY-04 06:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) -- Gold analysts Jessica Cross of Virtual Metals London and Ted Reeve of Haliburton Mineral Services in Toronto recently reported that gold mining companies reduced their hedging programs by 2.5 million ounces to a total of 68.3 million ounces during the first quarter of this year.


    Despite the decline in the global hedge book, the duo's analysis also determined that mining companies are increasingly using hedging as a tool for project financing.


    The decision by mining companies to use hedging to help finance new mines and mine expansion "is a healthy response to higher dollar gold prices and as such this trend should be both expected and welcome," they wrote. "It is evidence of rejuvenation of the primary gold industry and in itself a very necessary occurrence."


    In all, seven companies added 613,000 ounces to the hedge book. Project-related hedging which occurred during the first quarter include 21,000 ounces as forwards by Dioro Exploration, 275,000 ounces as forwards by Highlands Pacific, 40,000 ounces as forwards by Oxiana, and 320,000 ounces as puts and forwards by Resolute.


    Cross and Reeve insisted that the real test of the extent of the project financing by hedging will be found during the second quarter of this year. "At the end of the first quarter, the price in fact was at a 150-year high of $427/oz and the subsequent fall has no doubt had a major impact on the attitudes of the primary decision makers. How is the collective mining industry going to respond to a gold price struggling to maintain a range of $375-$390/oz?"


    Four responsible for major decline


    In The Hedge Book, Cross and Reeve determined that four companies--Barrick, Placer Dome, AngloGold and Ashanti--were responsible for 60% of the net global fall in hedging with Barrick accounting for 20%. The largest hedge book remains the Americas with a hedge impact of 35.1 million ounces, a drop of 1.5 million ounces. The African book also fell by 700,000 ounces to 16.5 million ounces while the Australian book was essentially the same.


    Interestingly, their analysis suggests that, due to the dominance of forwards, the hedge book is less sensitive to a wide range of prices than is commonly believed. "The greatest influence of changing gold prices is seen symmetrically in the amount of calls sold and puts bought."


    Of the 100 mining companies studied for the hedge survey, 61 had a hedge program at the beginning of the quarter. By the end of March, 48 companies reduced their hedging, four eliminated hedging, and seven increased their hedging. The four who closed out their hedge books accounted for 70,000 ounces.


    The global hedge book is dominated by forward contracts, which accounted for 78% of the total hedge impact. "In the Americas, where in tonnage terms the great contraction of the hedge book was measured, Barrick and Placer Dome led the field and by a wide margin, being responsible for three quarters of the regional decline," said the report. The Americas hedge impact during the first quarter of this year was 35.1 million ounces.


    The merger of AngloGold and Ashanti impacted 85% of the African hedge book for the first quarter. In Australia, Newcrest and the Sons of Gwalia were the most apparent de-hedgers, the analysts said. The hedge impact of the Eurasia hedge book fell by 100,000 ounces to 1.7 million ounces during the quarter. "The Eurasia region is much less hedged than our other regions with only 2 months of production covered," noted Cross and Reeve. "This is mainly because of a number of unhedged companies with relatively larger production, such as Norilsk, Zijin Mining and Highland Gold." Xstrata accounts for most of the Eurasia hedge book.


    Notwithstanding the broader decline in hedging, the mark-to-market position of the global hedge book at the end of the first quarter of 2004 was negative $5.2 billion, compared to negative $4.9 billion as of the fourth quarter of 2003. "One must be careful when drawing conclusions from of mark-to-market values," warned Cross and Reeve. "Mining companies are under no obligation to close out their entire hedge books now, and obviously most will not."


    Cross and Reeve also stressed that the valuations are sensitive to a combinations of U.S. dollar gold prices, local currency gold prices, interest rates, swap rates and volatilities.


    The analysts questioned if companies will buy back their hedges more aggressively at lower gold price levels in the belief that the price will recover back to over $410/oz. Cross and Reeve noted that April and May have been difficult months as NM Rothschild gave notice of withdrawing from commodities. They also expressed concern regarding the opposition by the Dutch government to mining projects, which, the analysts called "a major setback for the mining industry". The final straw, they noted, may be the efforts of the Chinese government to prevent their economy from overheating.


    "Against this background of lower Q2 prices, our next report will no doubt reveal interesting changes in the global hedge book. Further declines can be expected from Barrick and AngloGold and thus we anticipate a substantial contraction of the global book between April and June this year," they concluded.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.miningweekly.co.za/images/min/top/masthead.gif]


    http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/sector/gold/?show=51108


    Gold
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    25 May 2004

    African gold giant turns attention to China


    The newly-formed African gold giant, AngloGold Ashanti, has signalled its intention to participate in the burgeoning economic growth out of China as it speeds up the pace of business development and prospecting across the world.


    President Sam Jonah, who has taken over responsibility for new-business development and exploration, has recently returned from China and is reportedly bullish on prospects for the gold-miner in that country.


    weiter....

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    http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=71201


    Artikel vom 25. Mai 2004, 21:45 Uhr / Quelle: Blick Online

    18´000 Gotteskrieger in 60 Ländern?


    LONDON – Drei Jahre nach dem Beginn des «Krieg gegen den Terror» dürfte US-Präsident Bush ernüchtert sein: Schätzungen zufolge treiben sich zehntausende Al-Kaida-Kämpfer in der Weltgeschichte rum.


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    Anschlag auf das World Trade Center: Eine Reaktion auf die amerikanische Überlegenheit? FOTO: RDB


    Lebt Osama bin Laden noch? Ist er tot? Fragen über Fragen – und keine Antworten. Bis heute nicht, fast drei Jahre nach den Anschlägen auf die USA und dem daraus resultierenden «Krieg gegen den Terror». Dafür ist der frühere irakische Staatspräsident Saddam Hussein hinter Gitter.

    Wenn auch über den Verbleib von Osama Bin Laden nichts bekannt ist, über seine Gotteskrieger weiss man allerhand – vor allem beim Internationalen Institut für Strategische Studien (IISS) in London. Die dort tätigen Experten gehen davon aus, dass der Rest der Al-Kaida-Führung noch immer intakt ist.


    Bis zu 1000 Terroristen sollen in den Irak eingesickert sein. 20'000 wurden seit 1996 in Trainingslager in Afghanistan für den Dschihad geschult. Insgesamt befänden sich mehr als 18'000 mutmassliche Terroristen auf freiem Fuss.


    Welche Länder von Anschlägen bedroht sind? Europäer und Israelis – und überhaupt US-Bürger. Dafür könnten die Islamisten durchaus auch auf Massenvernichtungswaffen zurückgreifen.


    Und natürlich hagelte es auch Kritik an der USA. Diese hätten nicht verstanden, dass die Anschläge vom 11. September 2001 die gewalttätige Reaktion auf die amerikanische Überlegenheit gewesen seien. Sie raten den Vereinigten Staaten deshalb, ihre Politik der Alleingänge zu mässigen.

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    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=517286&section=news


    Bundesbank-Präsident Axel Weber


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/images…39_RTRDEOP_2_PICTURE0.jpg]


    "Sollte der Ölpreis auf dem derzeit hohen Niveau verharren, wäre eine weitere Zinssenkung möglich."

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    http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=517075&section=news


    Berlin (Reuters) - Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist allein wegen eines kräftigen Impulses vom Export im ersten Quartal gewachsen, während die Binnenkonjunktur schwach blieb.


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    melde gehorsamst:


    macht statistisches bundesamt auch schon hedonische buchführung wie amis.


    computer- prozessor ist viermal so schnell wie vorher zum gleichen preis - und schon sind preise um 300% gesunken.

    schwejk


    Natürlich gibt es auch hierzulande Möglichkeiten von Seiten des statistischen Bundesamtes zu schönigen bzw. zu mildern.


    Dazu zählt in der Tat dein Beispiel mit den Prozessoren. Ein PC ist nämlich im Warenkorb vorhanden.


    Werde morgen mal gucken, ob ich den aktuellen Warenkorb & Zahlen auftreiben kann....

    Hi Schwejk,


    ich lese ja auch schon eine Zeit bei Deinen Infos mit, aber heute habe ich das Gefühl, Dich erstmals richtig verstanden zu haben (hedonische Buchführung).


    Also bitte, fühle Dich nicht unnötig kritisch verstanden, doch: Jeder hat jetzt wohl gemerkt, daß Dein Name für eine (bzw. "die") verschmitzte Kritik, ganz a la "braver Soldat" steht.


    Deswegen ist und wäre es kein Stilbruch oder auch sonst kein Beinbruch, wenn Du einfach weiterhin unter "Schwejk" schreibst, aber in allgemeinem deutschen Jargon "postest" (ja, diese ekelhaft - überflüssigen Anglismen).


    Nun, ich weiß ja, jeder hat seine (...) Heimat, aber mich würde auch keiner verstehen, wenn ich so betont schreiben würde, wie die Sprache in meiner bayer. Heimat nun (gottseidank) ist, wie sie ist.


    Auch wenn´s manchmal noch donaumonarchisch "juckt", schreibe einfach ein Eck unkomplizierter. Wenn´s inhaltlich paßt und gedanklich anregt, wird sich die Gemeinde Deiner Leser bestimmt mehren ...


    Nichts für ungut.


    mfg
    Hallo

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com




    May 25 - Gold $388.20 up $2.70 - Silver $6.06 up 8 cents


    Make That 8 In A Row For The HUI


    Now I've been out in the desert, just doin' my time
    Searchin' through the dust, lookin' for a sign.
    If there's a light up ahead, well brother I don't know
    But I got this fever burnin' in my soul
    So lets take the good times as they go
    And I'll meet you further on up the road
    ...Bruce Springsteen (Further On Up The Road)


    Yesterday, I lamented the fact gold was only allowed a $1.20 rally with oil rising close to $2 on the session and with the currencies rebounding smartly. Clearly, The Gold Cartel had gone into action as they have done for so many years. Evidence that assessment was right on the money surfaced in the gold open interest numbers. Specs covered shorts, while the cabal forces dumped some of their recent long positions, selling them to the specs. Consequently, the open interest fell another 4533 contracts to 246,319. Can anything be more obvious than what is going on here?


    Then there is the obvious predictive HUI action (more on this below). As one Café member says:


    "Clear the 3-4p ET hour of every trading day to watch the HUI chart and be ready to respond to any abrupt and inexplicable movements, up or down. Whoever is controlling the gold price in the futures price is trading on that knowledge in the share market in the last hour the day before."


    The past couple of months the peculiar HUI action late in the day is becoming as obvious as the $6 rule has been for some time.


    Gold came in $3 higher, shot up to more than $4 on the day and that was it. Comex option expiry was today. Losing on their $380 and $385 calls with the euro flying, the collusive ones were not about to lose out on their $390 calls. Plus, they needed to call out the reinforcements today, so they could cap, cap, cap and then see if they could knock gold down tomorrow to protect their expiring Over The Counter call positions.


    How many times over the past number of weeks have I mentioned gold surging after the opening, for the first half hour to one hour, and then related that was it for the rest of the trading session? Gold either is held to those gains, or taken down somewhat. As a veteran commodity trader, I can tell you price patterns such as this do not occur over and over and over again. NEVER! Except in rigged markets!


    Gold has plenty of resistance from $390 to $395. Once cleared, it has $430 written all over it:


    June
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/64


    The dollar fared poorly following President Bush’s presentation to America last evening, a speech which offered little news. It closed at 89.89, down .70, while the euro leaped .91 to 120.99.


    Silver came in slightly higher, dipped fractionally, then rose in quiet fashion the rest of the trading session. JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and HSBC were early buyers. Goldman Sachs stopped an early dime rally dead in its tracks. Yesterday’s decent rally was without much new spec participation as the open interest fell 33 contracts to 88,355.


    Silver has now rallied around 60 cents off its low without any fanfare. The beat up specs are paying little attention. While silver did leave a tiny gap today, there are several huge ones to fill on the upside, which is just what I believe is going to happen in the weeks/months to come.


    Yesterday I neglected to mention silver gave us an outside day reversal to the upside. The technicals in silver continue to firm up.


    Silver has some resistance from here up to $6.25. If it clears that level, silver could run very quickly to the upside:


    July
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/74


    Solid bottoming formation in the CRB:


    June
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/64


    The CRB rose 1.16 to 275.64, even with crude oil falling 58 cents to $41.14.

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