Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Tuesday, June 01, 2004, 11:16:00 AM EST

Gold Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

My firm belief is that the price of gold is only starting its price appreciation despite the claptrap coming from all the purely technical analysts who have no fundamental understanding of gold and what drives it. Right now the fundamentals are in place for gold to deliver $480 plus.

Afghanistan cut the jugular vein of the former Soviet Union so what makes you think that Iraq and Afghanistan are not going to mortally injure Western capitalism?

Will Iraq become a democracy with its newly-appointed government or can you democratize a country that is devoid of democrats? With recent poles showing strong support for the fanatical martial cleric al-Sadr, can elections be expected to institute a democracy?

If Saudi Arabia does in fact flood the market with oil, will that action signal the end of the Saudi Royal Family in a blood bath? Is Western capitalism changing its traditional form both of government and of balance sheet health?

Is Western capitalism on the same road to nowhere that the Soviet Union took when it invaded Afghanistan with the purpose of imposing Soviet autocracy on that traditionally ungovernable country?

Have you checked the definition of the word "Sovereignty?"
The American Webster dictionary defines this word "sov·er·eign·ty" as follows: "n. pl. sov·er·eign·ties - Supremacy of authority or rule as exercised by a sovereign or sovereign state. Royal rank, authority, or power. Complete independence and self-government. A territory existing as an independent state."

If this is not what is turned over to the appointed members of the new Iraqi government, will it not be embarrassing to those who state it has occurred? Does the management of Iraq really believe that Americans are so stupid that they do not know what words mean?. Well, maybe.

The answers to all of the above questions are the fundamental factors that will impact the dollar which in turn will impact gold. This is what the nit wit technicians should have known when they issued their bearish forecasts about gold and their even dumber bullish dollar pronouncements.

Shame on every gold advisor who pushed you into a loss for no reason whatsoever. Shame on you for following them. Greater shame on you for sending them your money.

Shame on the web sites that post every opinion so as to lead you into the type of confusion that sets the stage for the gold geezers to issue their bearish technical calls in the face of fundamentals that are going to give you gold over $500 in the near future.

I pose the final question: Why in the world sell gold this morning at $399.80 when it is going to or above $480 by August 15th. If you were fooled once by the nit wits, are you going to be fooled twice?

Who with credentials was out there yelling, "stop the madness" to you when gold was being hammered and the professional interests were covering as fast as they could?

Gold at only $400 is madness in light of the fundamental condition now present and forming in the market.

Remember that oil impacts the dollar and the dollar impacts gold.

Das waren noch Zeiten!

Im Gegensatz des heutigen zum Absurdum geführten Fiat Money System, konnte man sich in früheren Zeiten noch auf Papier Geld verlassen.

Damals gab es auch noch keine private Federal Reserve Bank!

Der Dollar hatte einen ehrlichen inneren Wert, und war begehrt, weil er durch physisches Gold, oder Silber gedeckt war, und nicht nur wegen irgendwelchen Fantasie Zahlen die heute auf den Papier Dollars stehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Auch mit Silber gedeckten US Dollars war früher gewährleistet, dass die Menschen keine Angst vor US Papier Geld zu haben brauchten.

Ein wenig Geschichte!

Kommt mir irgenwie alles sehr bekannt vor!

Leider sind die meisten Menschen ob in den USA, in Europa, oder anderswo sehr vergesslich, und können Zusammenhänge nicht frühzeitig genug erkennen. Sonnst würde der Goldpreis trotz Preis Manipulation bereits heute bedeutend höher stehen. Aber das kommt mit Sicherheit alles noch.

Geschichte neigt leider dazu sich zu wiederholen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldtrend.de/grafik/goldanimation.jpg]

http://www.goldtrend.de/html/20040223.htm

Hyperinflation 1923

Auf dem Höhepunkt der Inflation zirkulierte in Deutschland eine wahre Flut von Papiergeld. Innerhalb von wenigen Monaten hatte sich die im Umlauf befindliche Geldmenge jeweils verzehnfacht.

Für die astronomisch hohen Beträge, die auf den Banknoten vermerkt waren, standen jedoch keine Werte mehr. Für die wöchentlichen Lohnzahlungen wurde körbeweise Papiergeld von den Banken abgeholt. Die Hyperinflation hatte dazu geführt, dass Länder, Kommunen, Reichsbahn und große Privatunternehmen eigenes Geld (Notgeld) gedruckt haben. Direkt nach der Lohnzahlung wurden die Geschäfte gestürmt. Denn, wenn man heute noch für seine Millionen Mark Mehl, Milch und Reis kaufen konnte, so war die Wahrscheinlichkeit groß, dass dieses Paket morgen schon wieder 1,5 Mio. Mark kosten würde. Die Lebensmittel aber, die man zu Hause in der Vorratskammer aufhob, würden auch nächste Woche, nächsten Monat, teilweise nächstes Jahr zu gebrauchen sein. Bei dem Papiergeld war das nicht der Fall. Obwohl damals Deutschland voll von Millionären war, konnte sich kaum jemand ein Haus oder einen Urlaub leisten. Das Geld war wertlos.

1871 wurde die Reichsmark eingeführt und war stets mindestens zu einem Drittel durch Gold gedeckt, für den Rest gab es andere Sicherheiten. Wie eigentlich immer was es der Krieg, in diesem Falle der erste Weltkrieg, in dessen Umfeld die Golddeckung aufgehoben wurde.

Im August 1914 wurde durch das Ermächtigungsgesetz die Reichsbank von der Pflicht enthoben, die Reichsmark jederzeit gegen Gold zu tauschen.

Der Verlauf des Krieges und die anschließenden Reparationszahlungen an die Alliierten führten nicht dazu, dass die Werte hinter dem Papiergeld in gleichem Masse anstiegen. Vielmehr verschuldete sich Deutschland durch seine Rüstungsausgaben so sehr, dass die Inflation bereits Ende des Krieges begann. Mit der Festsetzung der Reparationszahlungen 1921 beschleunigte sich die Inflation und wurde schnell zur Hyperinflation.

Da die Reichsbank alleine mit dem Gelddrucken nicht nachkam, halfen Gemeinden sowie Unternehmen aus: Sie druckten ebenfalls Geld und nannten es Notgeld, mit dem sie ihre Angestellten dann bezahlten. Für dieses Notgeld bekamen Arbeiter und Angestellte dann Sachwerte wie Weizen, Zucker oder Kohlen. Am Ende waren 700 Trillionnen Reichsmark und weitere 524 Trillionen Mark Notgeld im Umlauf.

Reichsfinanzminister Hans Luther macht angesichts dieser Lage am 16.11.1923 vor dem Reichstag darauf aufmerksam, dass es nur eine wirklich gute Lösung gebe:

Rückkehr zu einer durch Goldreserven gedeckten Währung.

Am Dienstag, dem 20.11.1923, wurde dann eine Billion Papiermark durch eine Rentenmark abgelöst. Auch gegen-über dem Ausland verpflichtete man sich zu einer Deckung der neuen Währung durch die Goldreserven.

Der Begriff Goldmark statt Rentenmark setzte sich im Volksmund aufgrund der Golddeckung durch. Ein klares Zeichen dafür, welchen Stellenwert das Gold beim Volk hatte.

Luther ist es in kurzer Zeit (durch eine Golddeckung,TG) gelungen, das Sanierungswerk zum Abschluss zu bringen. Am 20.11. wurden die Noten-bankpressen für Papiergeld stillgelegt. Verantwortlich für den Erfolg war aber auch das Verhalten der Bevölkerung und der Regierung: Des Zahlenzaubers der Inflation überdrüssig, wurde die neue Währung anerkannt. Beendigung der öffentlichen Schuldenwirtschaft. Luther formulierte treffend, die öffentliche Hand und die Wirtschaft müssten mit einem Schlag von „der süßen Gewohnheit der Inflation“ ablassen und die Vorstellung aufgeben, der Staat könne jederzeit mit der Notenpresse Geldmittel bereitstellen.

Und heute?

Der Euro ist bereits zum Scheitern verurteilt. (Fast,TG) Keine Golddeckung und die ersatzweise Bindung an die Wirtschafts-Leistung der jeweiligen Länder ist durch Frankreich bereits zu Genüge missachtet worden und durch Deutschland gebilligt – denn demnächst wird auch Deutschland in der Position von Frankreich stecken.

(Voraussage ist zwischenzeitlich bereits eingetroffen! TG)

http://www.goldtrend.de

Warren

Bin mir sogar sicher, dass Sinclair Recht behalten wird mit seiner Gold Preis Prognose von 480.- Dollar per Unze bis mitte August 2004.

Kann mir sogar noch weit höhere Gold Preise vorstellen, wenn der Dollar endlich ins Trudeln gerät. Bei der von der FED praktizierten wahnsinns Geldmengen Ausweitung, des Haushalts-, und Handelbilanzdefizites, und vor allem wegen der Geschwindigkeit der Ausweitung der Geldmenge, und der Defizite, lässt sich dies nicht nur vermuten, sondern wird zwingend erfolgen. Damit meine ich nicht die jetzt noch gesteuerte Dollar Entwertung mit allen charttechnisch inszinierten Spielen der BoJ, EZB, FED, und ihrer Primary Dealer, sondern eine durch diese Institutionen nicht, oder nur noch sehr begrenzt kontrollierbar werdende Dollar Abwertung.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Warren

Schau Dir einmal die heutige Preisentwicklung dieser wichtigen Lebensmittel an. Die offiziellen US CPI Zahlen sind ein Witz, die Berechnung abenteuerlich, wenn nicht sogar kriminell?

Inflation in Reinkultur !!!

Crude Oil ist heute wiederum um für die Weltwirtschaft gefährliche weitere 2.45 Dollar gestiegen!

Der DOW konnte sich wieder einmal mehr allen fundamentalen zum Trotz gerade noch halten.

Die Nasdaq hat sogar nochmals einen Tick zulegen können.

Der Dollar Index ist eine einzige Farse. Hat zwar heute wiederum trotz aller Bemühungen von interessierter Seite, ein wenig nachgegeben.

Gold ist heute zuerst massiv gestiegen, und wurde wiederum kurz vor 400 Dollar massiv in kurzer Zeit um fast 5.- Dollar abverkauft.

Gold darf NOCH nicht steigen. Schon gar nicht über die 400.- Dollar Marke!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

CMANSON

Sinclair sagt nicht, dass der Goldpreis genau am 15. August 2004 bei 480.- stehen wird. Er hat nur bereits angekündigt, dass falls der Goldpreis bis spätestens am 15. August die 480.- Dollar nicht erreicht, er sich von seiner bisherigen puplizistischen Arbeit verabschieden, und ebenso auch seine Homepage schliessen will.

Das war jedoch eine wie ich glaube, Überreaktion auf den grossen Gold Preis Abverkauf seit Januar, entgegen aller positiven Fundamentaldaten fürs Gold, und seinen früher gemachten Ankündigungen, über einen weiter massiv steigenden Goldpreis, der bis jetzt leider NOCH nicht eingetreten ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

June 1 - Gold $394.40 down 70 cents - Silver $6.04 down 11 cents

How Long Until Gold Vaporizes?

Zitat

"It is inevitable, that eventually the people will demand absolute security from the state... And absolute security is absolute slavery." --Taylor Caldwell

The Gold Cartel rarely disappoints its contingent and fellow groupies. As mentioned yesterday, over the past many years gold has not been allowed to rally, or is held in relative check, on the days when its price should rocket. "As we know, gold has become a "reverse barometer indicator. The days when it should take off most, cabal forces sit all over it to calm down financial markets," MIDAS – 5/31.

Whenever you think this manipulation can’t get any more blatant, it does. There is no better example of the ubiquitous cabal gold price fixing scheme than what occurred today. This is what gold had going for it, at a time when we have the least amount of spec longs relative to the commercial shorts over the past year or two:

*22 dead in oil town Khobar, Saudi Arabia with 3 out of 4 terrorists escaping.
*36 more dead in Baghdad today as a result of two major explosions.
*Oil trades over a record high of $42 per barrel, and closes at $42.33, up a whopping $2.45.
*Soybeans lock limit up with July beans at $8.64, up 50 cents.
*July corn locked limit up at $3.24, up 20 cents.
*July wheat closed up 26 cents to $3.88.
*The CRB soars to 281.75, up 4.50 and would have been more if grains not subject to limit gains.
*The word on the floor is that Bush is sending out the fleet towards the China sea to demonstrate to the Chinese that the US is serious about defending Taiwan. The Feds believe China may try to extract concessions about Taiwan for their support in the Security council for Bush's UN-Iraq proposal.
*Even with rumored intervention to prop up the dollar, it closed down .07 to 88.91. Most currencies fell against the dollar with the euro up .12 to 22.22.

How pitiful it will be to read later on how the mainstream bullion dealer gold analysts decry the poor gold action in light of international/financial market events. The commentary of these mega-lightweights is only worth noting to prove up what stooges they are. When a market acts in contrary fashion to what it ought to 100 times in a row, you would think some of these morons would want to understand the why of the peculiar gold action. Not these nitwits, they just go on and on as if they are performers in the Matrix or Stepford Wives.

The gold open interest fell a surprising 5,799 contracts to 234,516, which is extremely bullish for the weeks ahead. This tells us even further that the cabal’s gold takedown in April and in early May effected many tech specs to go short, which they have continued to cover on the rally. The Gold Cartel, who was happy to take on those shorts between $371 and $380, is now letting them out below $400, which is why the open interest continues to contract.

What this latest OI drawdown means is there is even more room for the specs to pile in to the long side with 70,000 new positions and take gold through $430. The 200-day moving average was taken out briefly in the early going (the cabal sucked in some spec buyers this time) before The Gold Cartel blasted bullion. They put their "Do Not Pass Go" sign up again this morning.

Gold input from London:

*Our bullion dealer source is looking for gold to perform solidly in June, reaching $420.

*Gold demand has surfaced from the unlikeliest of places.

Silver was sluggish right from the get-go, refusing to follow gold’s early advance after it had come in modestly higher. This is not unusual. Silver really moves when it wants to and not when other markets dictate it should.

The silver open interest remains relatively low at 85,686, up 207.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

The John Brimelow Report:

Is India back?

Monday, June 1, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums:

Monday: AM $3.35, PM $4.47, with world gold at $394.40 and $395.40. Below, and approaching, legal import point.

Tuesday: AM $5.61, PM $4.95, with world gold at $394.40 and $395.40. Above, and questionable, for legal imports.

While this is somewhat surprising given the rise in world gold, Friday is reported to have been the first day for three weeks to see net foreign portfolio investment on the Indian stock market: maybe commercial confidence in India is starting to improve. Shanghai Gold Exchange returned to slightly positive this morning as well.

Japan continues to be a follower in gold. On Monday world gold rose during Japanese hours: up $1.70 on NY’s close at the end of the Tokyo day. TOCOM volume rose 4.7% to the equivalent of 23,863 Comex lots; the active contract was down 11 yen. Open interest rose the equivalent of 790 Comex lots. Today world gold edged up another 25c; but volume slumped 48% to only the equivalent of 12,380 Comex; open interest slipped by 156 Comex lots. (On Friday NY traded 56,124 contracts of which 16,670 could be attributed to switches) -heavy for a shortened day. Open interest fell a startling 5,799 contracts.)

The mid $390s represent, of course an extremely critical level for gold technically on various measures. Not surprisingly, UBS yesterday observed:

"In Asia, gold traded lower on some aggressive selling from one Australian bank"

(A proceeds-maximizing seller moving the market with no London or NY market open?) And today, a record high in Oil and a floundering dollar has had no price effect: gold being smashed down from a post-weekend-adjustment rally on quite heavy volume. But, as UBS notes, there is huge scope for the Bulls on the basis of the CFTC data:

"Net longs increased only a fraction to 7.1 million ounces despite the $11/oz rally in the gold price to $388/oz. Since then we have seen gold rally further while Comex open interest fell, probably representing further short covering…. We estimate that the net long position probably stands at about 8.5-9.5 million ounces, still much lower than the 22.5 million ounces seen at the start of April. The conclusion is that there is plenty of room for speculative buying to lift gold should investors and funds climb back in - a break of the 200 day moving average of about $396 may be the trigger…"

With open interest down over 18,000 contracts since last Tuesday, and gold rising some $10, one can only marvel at the confidence of the short sellers who drove gold down below $380 in mid-May.

JB

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Well, what a surprise! With all that is going on in the world, the US stock market, led by the DOW, made one of its patented late day Hail Mary rallies again, just when it appeared it might really break down. "What great market action," will be the cry of the pundits on CNBC. I am not going to say too much on this – am too disgusted – except to say this Orwellian routine will end VERY badly. Nelson Hultberg is right. Our country is hurtling towards Mussolini's Economic Facism. Big business, big government, the money-center banks and the financial press are so intertwined, they have corrupted our formerly free financial markets and free financial market press.

The DOW finished the day at 12,201, up .13, while the DOG gained 4 to 1990.

Sep bonds closed at 104 15/32 down ¾.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal reserve added $6.75 Billion to the repo pool today June 1st 2004, an action that upped the repo pool's size to $48.20 Billion. This is getting up in size and it will be interesting to see how much longer the DOW can resist going sharply up with this much pressure under it. The Fed has been busy adding liquidity to the overall M-3 aggregates as Dr. McHugh opines below:

Financial Markets Forecast and Analysis
by Robert McHugh

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1597&pv=1

One can draw no other conclusion [From the Fed's massive 6 week add of $122 Billion to M-3 levels] except that the Fed is acting irresponsibly in its managing the money supply, in fulfilling its duty to "maintain a stable currency." I reject the notion that the Fed is acting irresponsibly. No, something is up, bigger than we have ever seen in the history of the United States. Let me ramble. Perhaps they simply see the ominous technical landscape we have been warning about in recent issues, and are attempting to pull out all the stops to avert the predicted crash. The recent rally in just about everything is similar to 2003's market behavior when the Fed pumped massive amounts of liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. This time seems different. The amount of liquidity is too large. The Fed is deflating the value of the monetary base by a fifth! Why are they willing to do this? Wisdom says something bad is up - big time.

The good doctor of economics is very jittery over the M-3 levels and we can’t blame him for noticing the obvious M-3 dislocations. However, if the Fed is deeply worried about a DOW "crash" they aren’t showing it in their repo pool activity. It’s just been business as usual with more and more repos in a gentle up slope of support (As shown by the pool’s 30-day ma). Dr. McHugh is ignoring the reality that the Fed can create a trillion dollars of repos in a few minutes to buy DOW futures. The idea of a DOW crash in today’s government manipulated "market" misses the mark. It won’t crash through an ocean of repo support.

What WILL happen is something the Fed hasn’t planned for, something they forgot in all their numerous "models" and in all probability that accident will surface in a rush to one or more of the strategic commodities. Because the stocks of the COMEX and LBMA commodities (Including the SPR-Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are limited, a large player can simply exhaust them in a single afternoon of trading. The resulting default in the commodity will wreak havoc in all the financial markets (Such a default would take several months to play out before the final announcement). All the M-3 liquidity in the universe can’t replace an exhausted stock of a "national security" commodity.

Such a default will occur (or more likely be announced) at the least expected moment. It is this default risk that today’s players on the COMEX aren’t paying enough attention to. They have been seduced by the past history (late 1970’s) of strong leverage in commodity squeezes but the Fed has invested an enormous body of research and manpower to thwart the price spikes of past history. We shouldn’t underestimate the Fed when they focus on a narrow target.

Where one wins against the Fed is to obtain the strategic commodity itself while you can and then bank of natural high leverage in the aftermath of the inevitable defaults.
Mike

The legendary Catherine Austin Fitts with a few thoughts:

Bill:

Just read Midas.

[B]Why don't you mention the fact that the US Treasury has to date refused to produce audited financial statements ever since the laws kicked in the mid 1990's requiring them and has over $3.3 trillion of undocumentable adjustments between 2001 and after 9-11 stopped reporting even that?

The cartel can not manipulate the gold market unless they can finance such manipulation. Financing such manipulation requires running the US Treasury operation illegally -- in a manner that could not continue if the laws regarding transparency are in effect. As long as the US Treasury apparatus can be used to spend very significant sums of money outside of the law and engage in ongoing accounting and securities fraud using agencies like FHA, Ginnie, Army, Navy, etc... they can finance a multitude of manipulations and other illegal activities. The gold manipulations are one of them. The manipulation of the gold market is an integral part of the sources and uses of the black budget.

Want to stop an army? Pull the plug on their gas supply. The gold cartel's primary gas supply is US Treasury accounting and securities fraud.

It's a lot easier to prove that the US government has refused to comply with the laws requiring audited financial statements than it is to prove that they are manipulating the gold market. That is because they provide the documentation to prove it. It is on the record -- Rubin, Summers, O'Neill, Snow. All of em.

See Kelly's O'Meara's latest

http://www.insightmag.com/news…d.Unbalances-658744.shtml

Or all the articles and background:

Where is the Money?

http://www.whereisthemoney.org

Missing Money -- Links and Articles
http://www.solari.com/learn/missingmoney.htm

Lots of love,
Catherine

**Catherine Austin Fitts is the President of Solari, Inc. ( http://solari.com), a former Assistant Secretary of Housing – Federal Housing Commissioner in the first Bush Administration and a former Managing Director and member, Board of Directors, of Dillon, Read & Co. Inc.

Speaking of audits – isn’t it about time Fort Knox and the US gold reserves be independently audited:

Hi Bill,

Not that it is all that big a deal, but I thought you would be amused to know that last night at our dinner party for my wife's sister and her husband and cousin, my dear brother-in-law, a delightful man who drives a truck, piped up out of the blue with the remark, "All the military guys know there is no gold in Fort Knox."

I nearly fell out of my chair.

We weren't even talking about investments, let alone gold. I think the subject of the conversation was more along the lines of things the public is not generally aware of.

Anyway, this morning I asked Jack again about his remark, and he told me that he completed his tour of duty in 1990, but he insisted at that time, "among the the sergeants", it was well known and common knowledge that the gold supposedly in Fort Knox was long gone.

Now that, if true, certainly puts the lie to the idea that gold just sits there collecting dust.

Whoever said it doesn't earn interest?

Maybe it doesn't earn monetary interest obviously, because it doesn't have to, but certainly gold earns much OWNERSHIP interest. It earns LOTS of that kind of interest, and IT MUST BE SOMEWHERE if it is not in Fort Knox and OWNED BY SOMEONE, but the taxpayers are purposely kept in the dark about WHO represents that considerable ownership interest.

Shall we assume that the gold really has been moving all along, only surreptitiously? One then doesn't have to wonder why all the secrecy and obfuscation if it should turn out that the transfer of ownership from the American people to ?? whoever?? has been illegal.
My best
Phil

Silent Gold Cartel associate is pulling back:

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - AIG International Limited, part of American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG - News), will no longer be a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) market maker in gold and silver, the LBMA said on Tuesday.

LBMA Chief Executive Stewart Murray told Reuters AIG had been reclassified as a member and so would still trade, with effect from close of business on Friday May 28.

AIG (XETRA:IREG.DE - News) was a first-tier market maker and dealer in over-the-counter spot, forward, option and swap markets in precious metals. Murray said the company requested to be reclassified….. –END-

Crude oil commentary this morning from AD:

Bill,

The bond market is in a spectacular decline today. Crude oil, as I predicted, has recovered from its temporary pull back. As a result of these two factors it looks as if the ESF was actively rescuing the dollar today.

Spot tanker rates do not indicate that anyone is actively looking for a significant amount of extra tonnage. Saudi has done the jawboning that they can produce more but there are no takers. The world needs light, sweet crude not the heavier higher sulfur contents that are typical of Saudi production. So the Saudis are not looking to ship any more because no one wants it. World demand for refined products is now greater than world refining capacity. At this point the refiners have to be very particular about what quality of crude they buy. OPEC does not have any spare capacity to produce the grades of crude that the world needs right now. They have spare capacity in what the world doesn't need. Non-OPEC meanwhile is pumping all they can.

The world doesn't have very much spare capacity in the tanker fleets, particularly with the new European rules requiring double hull vessels. The oil industry has production bottlenecks, transportation bottlenecks and refining bottlenecks. Anyone hoping that the oil price is going to significantly correct downwards is doing exactly that...hoping. The oil crisis of 1973 is generally attributed to the Arab Oil Embargo as protest against the US support of Israel. In fact that was just the catalyst. At that time oil demand and supply were balanced on a knife-edge...it just needed a disruption of any nature to spark the crisis. Today we are in the same position of being finely balanced. Any major disruption today from strikes, civil unrest, terrorism etc will be the catalyst that will spark a major oil crisis where the oil price will not only make new records in nominal dollars but in 1973 dollar terms too....which would be a number north of $80.

I hear the Federal Reserve is sponsoring research on alternative energy source engine that is fueled by out of the money derivative contracts. Apparently this energy source is expected to be huge and perhaps even renewable!

For anyone who thinks the Cabal's $6 rule in Gold is an unbreakable rule I would remind him or her that gold HAS BEFORE and CAN AGAIN go up $100 in a single day. The Nobel Prize Laureates of LTCM made the catastrophic error of thinking that market prices move in a continuum where equilibrium between supply and demand is continuously adjusting itself...markets will from time to time deliver a discontinuity, a catastrophic event. And contrary to popular belief they are not totally unpredictable, the forces can be seen to be building for some time, the failure point timing, however, is almost impossible to predict.

Oil is high on my choice of possible catalysts that will trigger a discontinuity in markets.
Cheers
Adrian

Another good reason for gold not to rise, which was released before today’s substantial move in the grains:

May 28, 2004

April Farm Prices Received Index Up 7 Points
Index Reaches Record High

The US Department of Agriculture announced that the All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in May stood at 132 (1990-92=100), up 7 points (2.5%) above April's upward revised index.

Agricultural prices are an indicator that BTM closely watches for signs of inflation. May's farm prices received level of 132 was the highest level since the index began in 1910. The largest contribution to the increase came from livestock products (up 9 pts. or 7.1%), also at a record high. Year-over-year the prices received index is up 26.0 percent.

-END-

The Elephant Hiding In The Corner

I would like to discuss the notion that J.P. Morgan overtly acts as the Fed's de facto agent in financial markets. My best guess is that there are few market watchers who would dispute this notion. Now I would like everyone to consider the size of J.P. Morgan’s derivatives book – which stood at 36 and change Trillion at the end of Q4 2003. These statistics are public knowledge and are lodged with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of the United States. I remember reading in a recent Midas commentary the size of Morgan’s derivatives book and it got me thinking. The last time I looked up the same statistics regarding Morgan was early January 2004. At that point in time the latest available reporting was at Sept. 30 2003 (end of Q3) when ‘the book’ was only 33.654 Trillion. I didn’t think too much of this at first but now I’ve gotta admit I’m really scratching my head about the increase.

Just for fun I reviewed my trusty GDP figures from Q3/03 at 8.2% versus Q4/03 at 4.1%. The thinking here was perhaps if the economy ‘exploded’ with growth in Q4/03 it might account for some of the roughly 3 TRILLION GAIN IN 3 MONTHS. But low and behold GDP actually decelerated over this time frame? Now I know the guys at Morgan are supposed to be the best and the brightest but surely to heavens they didn’t discover the wheel in Q4/03 – and the whole U.S. economy is 11 Trillion/yr. So how would anyone possibly offer an explanation as to how Morgan’s derivatives book bloated 3 TRILLION in 3 MONTHS?

If you think like me and read the same kind of stuff, you remember that Alan Greenspan has ‘lobbied hard’ to keep derivatives in the realm of the unregulated – meaning away from public scrutiny. Many academic papers have been written on the adverse consequences derivatives might have on the global financial system. By some accounts we have even had near brushes with financial Armageddon in the case of a couple of loose cannon Nobel-laureates in the LTCM crisis (sound familiar Al?). There have even been muted cries in some vestiges of sanity that derivatives trading must be regulated. But not easy Al – nope, to hell with the prying eyes of regulators in J.P. Morgan’s wonderful derivatives book. The man must be a true free trader right to the bone. Gotta wonder what regulators might find if they ever did an independent audit of Morgan’s derivatives book?

Since one of my favorite things in life is connecting dots, I now draw your attention to a recent Sol Pahla offering (The Perfect Storm) where Sol stated, "The feds will attempt to try to save the economy by trying to monetize the debt as no sane nation is going to keep buying this toilet paper forever. By doing so they will keep driving energy prices higher." Now I ask you dear reader, "As expressed by the recent bulge in the Morgan Chase derivatives book - what if they already have?"

By Rob Kirby

Gold share news:

Wheaton, Iamgold reject rival bids

Both move ahead with merger plans Shareholders meeting to be held June 8

The boards of Wheaton River Minerals and Iamgold Corp. say they believe their proposed merger is still a better opportunity than rival bids last week by two American companies, which are seeking to prevent a marriage of the two mid-sized Canadian gold producers.

Vancouver-based Wheaton River was first to reject an unsolicited shares-and-cash offer from U.S. silver producer Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp., valued at $2.5 billion when it was made last Thursday.

Toronto-based Iamgold followed suit yesterday, rejecting an all-stock bid from Golden Star Resources Ltd. of Denver that was worth $1.2 billion….

The XAU fell 1.43 to 88.38 and the HUI dropped 3.89 to 196.35, down 3.58.

The Gold Cartel made its usual points today:

*Don’t invest in gold in days of crisis/market stress, or we will hurt you.

*No reason to stress out investing public – if there were real problems in the financial markets gold would soar – look - it is down on the day.

The cabal has huffed and puffed once again and aggravated us all in the process. At some point in the not too distant future, they are going to run out of breath. They will have huff and puff one time too much and it is going to bury them. With the US money supply doing what it is doing, oil soaring, commodity prices readying to move into new high ground, Iraq becoming more of a horror show by the day, the US deficits out of control, gold demand on the rise, and their gold short position an untenable one in the long term, The Gold Cartel will vaporize one day. POOF! Gold is likely to rally $100 in a week out of nowhere as sheer panic sets in when the cabal loses control of this too obvious rigging operation. What goes around, comes around.

Those not long gold, or invested in the shares, may have little opportunity for decent risk market entry, which is why it is so important to keep in mind:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

From Mahendra:

A GREAT FOUR WEEKS OFFER FOR MY WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

Dear Friends,

While I was in Dallas, Bill suggested to me that many more people will have a chance to benefit from my insights if I adjusted the price of my weekly newsletter. He proposed that I reduce the cost so that the newsletter can be accessible to a larger audience. I have given careful thought to Bill's proposition and since I have also received many similar requests from people in different parts of the world, I am glad to announce that for next four weeks you can subscribe for the whole weekly newsletter for just $190. I have therefore reduced the cost from $2850 to only $190. This offer is valid till 30 JUNE 2004. After that I shall announce a new price which may be a little bit higher.

Subscribe for any one subject from my newsletter list and you will receive the rest at no extra charges. You will automatically get the additional ones absolutely free. Once again, this offer is valid for only four weeks.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www2.cdn-news.com/database/fax/2000/bonanza.jpg]

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: BZA

JUNE 1, 2004 - 18:28 ET

American Bonanza Drills 3 Metres Grading 51 Grams Per Tonne Gold, and Mobilizes Fourth Drilling Rig to Copperstone

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/sc…pl?/current/0601187n.html

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Barclays to join London gold fix from June 7

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays (BARC) PLC, said on Tuesday it would start to take part in London's gold fixing sessions from Monday, June 7.

The bank announced last week it had bought a vacant seat in the London Gold Market Fixing from NM Rothschild and Sons Ltd.

The fixings are an open process at which participants can transact business on the basis of a single quoted prices.

Orders can be changed throughout as the price is moved higher or lower until such time as buyers' and sellers' orders are satisfied and the price is said to be "fixed".

Late in April, the London Gold Market Fixing said chairmanship of the twice-daily process -- previously chaired by Rothschild since 1919 -- would rotate annually among member firms, with Scotiabank, through its precious metals division ScotiaMocatta, elected as the first chair from May 5.

The fixing is now done over the telephone by member firms HSBC (HSBA), ScotiaMocatta, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn) and Societe Generale (SOGN).

©2004 Reuters Limited.

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/n…ate=20040601&cat=INDUSTRY

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http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/40536.html

Wednesday, June 02 - 2004

United Arab Emirates

Q1 gold sales in UAE up 41pc

UAE retail sales of gold surged by 41 per cent in the first quarter to reach USD436m, although this reflected the higher price of gold compared with a year ago and the volume increase was lower. The World Gold Council said the growth of the UAE and Dubai Shopping Festival helped to boost sales.

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http://www.thisismoney.com/20040602/nm78950.html

Demand for gold up 30%

Jane Padgham, Evening Standard

2 June 2004

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.thisismoney.com/ima…opcaps/dropcapg_56x47.gif]OLD was in big demand during the first three months of this year, despite a sharp increase in its price triggered by the sliding dollar.

Figures today from the World Gold Council show consumer demand for the yellow metal - including jewellery and retail investment - was up by 12% in tonnage terms on a year earlier and 30% in dollar terms.

The gold price during the quarter averaged $408 an ounce compared with $352 in the same quarter last year.

In India, already the world's biggest gold-consuming nation, demand increased by 21%, boosted by a strong economy and rural customers benefiting from the after-effects of 2003's good monsoon rains.

Jewellery is the main use for gold in India. When a Hindu woman marries, she is normally expected to bring a dowry of gold to her marriage. A bride will wear up to 200 grams of gold on her wedding day in earrings, a nosepin, ring, necklace and bangles.

In contrast, demand from institutional investors was subdued. Having snapped up gold in January amid expectations of further price rises, profit-taking set in and new investment dried up.

Gold struck a peak of $425.50 in January, shortly before the dollar went into a tailspin. The report notes that the speculative sell-off of gold investments appears to have continued in the second quarter of the year and may even have intensified.

However, Jill Leyland, senior economist at the World Gold Council, said that worsening financial market jitters and geopolitical tensions could tempt more speculative buyers into the market in the coming months.

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http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-06/artikel-3473928.asp

Mittwoch, 2. Juni 2004

Gold- und Ölpreise ziehen an

Der Goldpreis ist weiter gestiegen. Auch der Kurs der Futures für Öl der Sorten Light Crude (leichtes US-Öl), Heating Oil und der führenden Nordseesorte Brent Crude zog im New Yorker Terminhandel an. Sowohl Light Crude als auch Brent Crude verzeichnete damit ein Rekordhoch. Hintergrund dieses Ölpreisanstiegs ist die anhaltende Unsicherheit über die Ölversorgung aus Saudi-Arabien, dem größten Ölexporteur der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (OPEC). Extremisten des Terrornetzwerks El Kaida hatten am Samstag das Ölzentrum in der Stadt El Chobar überfallen, mehr als ein Dutzend Menschen erschossen und zahlreiche Ausländer als Geiseln genommen. Die Ölanlagen sind jedoch unbeschädigt davon gekommen.

Ein starker preistreibender Einfluss kommt aber auch aus den USA. Trotz der geringen US-Benzinvorräte machten US-Behörden die Hoffnung auf eine Wende zunichte, indem sie ein Aussetzen der neuen Umweltschutzbestimmungen ablehnten. Der Schwefelgehalt im Benzin muss nach den neuen US-Umweltschutzvorschriften niedriger sein als früher. Viele Raffinerien in den USA und in Venezuela können diese Normen nicht erfüllen, somit fallen Produktionskapazitäten aus. Es lohnt sich nicht, die teilweise maroden Raffinerien mit ausreichender Entschwefelungstechnologie aufzurüsten, infolge dessen geraten die USA noch stärker in die Abhängigkeit von Öl- und nun auch von Benzinproduzenten in der Golfregion und in Fernost. Zudem fällt immer wieder die eine oder andere US-Raffinerie aus.

Einen starken bullischen Effekt haben weiterhin die finanzkräftigen Fonds, die jede Gelegenheit bei leicht nachgebenden Kursen zu Zukäufen nutzen und ihre Anteile an Long-Kontrakten (steigende Kurse) weiter erhöhen. Ursache für ihre lang anhaltende bullische Einstellung ist der über den Erwartungen liegende Anstieg des weltweiten Ölbedarfs. Weltweit wächst der Ölbedarfs, wobei insbesondere China, Indien und andere Fernoststaaten für einen Nachfrageboom und damit für Preissteigerungen sorgen.

Am Donnerstag treffen sich die OPEC-Vertreter in Bereit um über die weitere Ölversorgung zu diskutieren. Allgemein wird von den Märkten eine deutliche Ausweitung der offiziellen Fördermenge erwartet. Da aber die meisten OPEC-Staaten bereits an ihrer Kapazitätsgrenze produzieren, müsste die höhere Produktion vor allem von Saudi-Arabien, Kuwait und den Vereinigten Arabische Emirate getragen werden. Aber selbst ein solcher Schritt kann vermutlich kaum den derzeitigen Aufwärtstrend der Preise brechen.

Beim ihrem Treffen am 10. Februar in Agier beschlossen die Ölminister der elf OPEC-Staaten überraschend eine Drosselung der Fördermenge, da sie im Frühjahr einen saisonbedingten Preisverfall befürchten. Infolge der hohen Ölpreise ging man allgemein davon aus, dass die Quoten nicht verändert werden, sondern dass lediglich auf Einhaltung der bestehenden offiziellen Quoten gedrängt wird. Das hieße immerhin eine reale Reduktion der Ölströme um 1,5 bis 1,8 Mio. Barrel pro Tag. Doch die OPEC gingen weiter. Auf Drängen Saudi Arabiens wurde eine Quotensenkung von 1 Mio. Barrel pro Tag ab dem 01. April beschlossen. Am 31. März einigten sich die OPEC-Vertreter in Wien darauf, die im Februar beschlossene Fördermengendrosselung auf 23,5 Million bpd (barrel per day) ab 01. April umzusetzen. Die OPEC-Staaten benötigen die höheren Einnahmen zur Sanierung ihrer Staatshaushalte und für die Erschließung neuer Ölquellen.

Auch das Drängen der US-Regierung wurde von der OPEC ignoriert. Die Kürzung führt voraussichtlich dazu, dass sich die Benzinpreise, die in den USA ohnehin schon auf Rekordhöhe liegen, weiter verteuern. Dies würde im bevorstehenden Präsidentschaftswahlkampf die Chancen von George W. Bush auf eine Wiederwahl schmälern.

Inzwischen macht sich auch die OPEC Sorgen über die Folgen des anhaltenden Preisanstiegs für die Weltwirtschaft. Das Kartell betont immer wieder, dass diese Preissteigerungen weder die Absicht der OPEC sei noch auf eine ihrer Maßnahmen zurückgehe. Experten zweifeln zudem, dass die OPEC die Lage entschärfen könnte, dazu seinen die anderen fundamentalen Daten zu stark. Derzeit produziert die OPEC rund 2 Mio. Barrel pro Tag über den Quoten, damit würde eine Quotenanhebung real keine Verbesserung bedeuten.

Der Irak will nach Aussagen seines Ölministers Shamkhi Faraj die Ölexporte von rund 1,5 Mio. bpd im Mai auf 2,0 Mio. Barrel pro Tag (bpd) im Juni steigern. Gleichzeitig soll die Produktion von etwa 2,1 Mio. auf 2,6 Mio. bpd angehoben werden.

Längerfristig besteht die Möglichkeit steigender Preise, da der Ölbedarf in den kommenden Jahren rasant wachsen wird. Neue Märkte wie China verursachen eine zusätzliche Verknappung des Ölangebots. China benötigt für sein beeindruckendes Wirtschaftswachstum viel Öl. Zudem wächst im Reich der Mitte der Autoabsatz beträchtlich und dementsprechend auch der Benzinbedarf. Allein in China wuchs die Ölnachfrage im ersten Quartal um etwa 1,0 Million Barrel pro Tag. Durch seine Verschwendung ist das Reich der Mitte, die mittlerweile sechstgrößte Wirtschaft der Erde, zum zweitgrößten Ölverbraucher aufgestiegen. Nach dem BIP-Wachstum von 9,1 Prozent in 2003 waren Sorgen vor einer Überhitzung der Wirtschaft aufgekommen und die Regierung in Peking reagierte mit Maßnahmen zur Abkühlung der Konjunktur. Diese Maßnahmen gegen eine Überhitzung der Konjunktur zeigen bereits erste Wirkungen.

Preisentlastend wirkte bisher, dass die wichtigsten Nicht-OPEC-Länder Russland, Norwegen und Mexiko eine Reduzierung ihrer Liefermengen ablehnen. Zusammen mit den zunehmenden irakischen Exporten könnte die Kürzung der OPEC etwas kompensiert werden. Kürzt das Kartell die Fördermengen um die Preise stabil zu halten, droht ein Verlust von Marktanteilen an Nicht-OPEC- Mitglieder.

Der Kurs des Euro stieg von 1,2241 Dollar am letzten Handelstag auf nun 1,2277 Dollar. Mitte Februar erreichte der Euro ein Rekordhoch von 1,2927 Dollar, und liegt heute über seinem Kurs bei der Einführung der Gemeinschaftswährung am 04. Januar 1999 von 1,1886 Dollar. Ein schwächerer Dollar macht das in US-Dollar angeschriebene Gold und Öl für Anleger aus anderen Währungsräumen billiger und damit attraktiver. Allerdings führt er auch dazu, dass die OPEC nichts gegen die hohen Preise unternimmt, da die Einnahmen des Kartells an Wert verlieren.

Feinunze Gold: 395,50 Dollar +0,60 Dolllar

Feinunze Silber: 6,055 Dollar -0,055 Dollar

Light Crude: 42,33 Dollar +2,45 Dollar

Brent Crude: 39,08 Dollar +2,50 Dollar

Heating Oil: 1,0641 Dollar +0,0612 Dollar

Die unterschiedlichen Preise werden durch die Qualität des Öls gerechtfertigt. Je höherwertiger das Öl ist, um so kostengünstiger ist seine Weiterverarbeitung.

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