Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • Hallo Pfannkuchen,


    nicht heulen, freu dich und kaufe etwas billiger nach. Oder siehst Du in
    den herkömmlichen Märkten zur Zeit günstige Gelegenheiten?
    Nein, also, was spricht gegen ein Investment in Gold, Silber und Platin?
    Die hohen Preise? Dass ich nicht lache, Silber ist, inflationsbereinigt, nahe
    seines 100 jährigen Tiefs, Öl ist, ebenfalls inflationsbereinigt, billiger als in
    den 70er und 80er Jahren, als alle Welt von der Ölkrise sprach.
    Wer sich von solchen Kurskapriolen wie heute beeindrucken lässt, der
    sollte jede Investition in Edelmetalle bleiben lassen. Warum fragst Du?
    Weil diese Leute überhaupt keine Ahnung haben. Die Ausweitung der
    Geldmenge M3, der in vielen Kreisen wenig bis gar keine Bedeutung bei-
    gemessen wird, verheißt nichts Gutes. Die jüngsten Steuerschätzungen
    für Deutschland, katastrophal.
    Überall auf der Welt brennt es. Nichts ist mehr sicher, angefangen bei
    der zahnärztlichen, hausärztlichen oder Altersversorgung. Die Arbeits-
    plätze hängen am seidenen Faden, die Konjunktur und der Konsum in
    den USA sind aufgebläht und abhängig von historisch niedrigen Leitzin-
    sen. Gleichzeitig liegt die reale Inflation in den Staaten nach meiner
    Schätzung (Ölpreis usw.) aktuell bei mehr als 5 %. Im Fernsehen und
    Radio hört man davon nichts; ich nenne so etwas gelinde ausgedrückt
    Manipulation. Was also tun?
    Ja, richtig: Kaufe Dollars, US-Staatsanleihen, am Besten die dreissigjäh-
    rigen, leihe dein Geld Fannie Mae oder Freddie Mac und vergiss nicht,
    shorte Gold und Silber, denn die sind uninteressant und nur für Spinner
    und Hirnamputierte. Und diese lassen sich bekanntlich leicht abzocken...


    Gruss


    Warren

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold.org/img_splash/structure2/top-logo.gif]


    http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/pdf/supply_demand010604.pdf


    PRESS RELEASE


    WGC Reports Gold Consumer Demand Up Q1


    2004 London, 2 June 2004:


    Figures published today by the World Gold Council reveal that consumer demand for gold has improved over the last year. Consumer demand for gold (jewellery and net retail investment) was up by 12% in tonnage terms, and by 30% in dollar terms, in the first quarter of 2004, compared to the somewhat depressed levels of a year earlier. The World Gold Council reports that although complicated by the sharp upward movement in the gold price, consumer demand for gold actually increased in monetary terms during the period since 2001. Commenting on the supply/demand dynamics for the first quarter 2004, James Burton, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council (WGC), said:


    “In the face of a 55% rise in the dollar gold price, historically we would have expected consumer demand to recede due to the sensitivity of Asian and Middle Eastern markets to price volatility.


    Actually this quarter, the money flowing into gold from consumers was 37% up on Q1 2002 in dollar terms, and 25% higher than in Q1 2001, demonstrating a positive underlying trend.” He warns, however, that the global economic and political uncertainty of Q1 2003 depressed the figures of the same period a year ago.


    Zitat

    “It is fair to say that confidence is returning to gold, yet gold continues to face competitive pressures for share of wallet in all of its key markets,” he said.


    Jewellery Demand Among the markets participating in the recovery in jewellery demand for gold, strong year-on-year rises were recorded in India (21%), Vietnam (36%) and Turkey (38%) in tonnage terms. Highlights for the largest international markets are:


    • India and East Asia - Jewellery demand was up in India by 21% in tonnage terms and 33% in local rupee terms on Q1 2003. 


    This is due to favourable (rupee) price trends, a strong economy, and rural consumers (who account for over 60% of demand) benefiting from the after effects of 2003’s generally good monsoon.


    - In China demand rose by 6% in tonnage terms and 23% in price (renminbi) terms. 


    Despite the booming economy, demand for gold jewellery is still somewhat dampened by the overhang from the earlier restrictions and state controls. The strongest demand in the quarter was for 18 carat gold. This follows the WGC-backed ‘K gold’ initiative that promotes 18 carat gold, both yellow and white, in Italian-inspired design. This has been selling well with 60-70% of demand in white gold, demand for which has also been stimulated by the high price of platinum.


    • Middle East and Turkey - The strong oil price provided a background of consumer optimism in Saudi Arabia and UAE, where both countries reported strong year-on-year rises in tonnage terms, with an increase of 11% and 22% respectively. 


    - Jewellery demand showed a 14% recovery in Egypt helped by price trends and by the reduced black market rate for the US dollar. Jewellery imports resumed following the disappearance of the local price discount to international prices and scrap outflows lessened.


    http://www.gold.org


    - Sustained high economic growth coupled with strong promotional spending and heavy media coverage resulted in jewellery demand in Turkey leaping by over a third in tonnage terms from what was already a strong Q1 in 2003.


    • USA - Jewellery demand in Q1 in tonnage terms in the USA was 6% higher than a year earlier (23% in dollar terms).


    The year started well, albeit from a depressed Q1 2003, with a strong Valentine’s Day and this positive trend has continued into Q2. Industrial Demand The first quarter of this year saw a steady rise (8% in tonnage terms and 26% in dollar terms) in industrial demand for gold. The improvement began in mid-2002 as the beneficial technical properties of gold were increasingly employed within new electronic products, and the electronics industry recovered.


    Investment Demand Net retail investment is up 14% year on year in tonnage terms.


    Demand in Japan was particularly strong (up 48%) on the back of continued concern over the economy.


    In Vietnam, demand more than doubled.


    After the heady rise seen in 2003, net institutional investment demand paused for breath in the first quarter. Demand was brisk in January fuelled by the market’s expectation of further price rises as well as growing interest in commodities and in alternative investments generally. However, the fall-back in the gold price caused a natural shift in many investors’ attitudes; as existing profits were taken, new investment dried up.


    Supply


    Overall supply of gold was 7% lower in tonnage terms than one year earlier.


    The first quarter of 2004 saw the announcement of the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA 2)* in March, confirming the importance of gold as a central bank reserve asset.


    Net central bank selling of 96 tonnes was lower than a year earlier with sales by Switzerland, Norway and routine sales by the Philippines, partly offset by an acquisition of 28 tonnes by Argentina.


    Early indications for Q2 2004 Jewellery Initial indications are that demand for jewellery continues to remain robust in key markets and comparisons with Q2 2003 will be favoured by the effect of SARS a year ago.


    Provided there is no sudden price increase, consumer demand should be generally higher in tonnage terms than a year earlier. This is not expected to be the case in India, despite a good May wedding season, because of the exceptional levels of Q2 2003. Initial import numbers for the US suggest that there has been some recovery in demand, whilst the immediate outlook for all the Middle East regions, including Turkey, is for continued good growth off the back of soaring oil prices and strong economies. James Burton added: “While early indications are positive, it is the World Gold Council’s function to play a key role in maintaining momentum, and ensuring that gold jewellery is a desirable and relevant product for women in our key markets. Overall, we anticipate that the results of initiatives with leading retail partners will start to have a positive impact on figures going forward. In addition, our promotional activities in China, which saw the introduction of K-gold in Beijing in the beginning of Q2, and our Italian-designed Gold Expressions range, which has been promoted throughout all of our major markets, will help to build on the early positive results of Q1.”


    http://www.gold.org


    Investment The speculative sell off of gold investment appears generally to have continued, and may have intensified. However, volumes may be positively affected by the increase of tonnes in trust in the WGC-backed Gold Bullion Securities (GBS). When re-launched in the beginning of Q2 in response to market feedback, GBS saw a doubling of net assets under trust to US$660m**. Central Banks In Q2, we will continue to see controlled sales of gold by some central banks within the confines of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. James Burton commented: “Now that the central banks have concluded the second CBGA in a timely fashion, the market is likely to take any further central bank activity in its stride. The renewed agreement has set an official framework and will prove to be a significant anchor for the gold market in the future.”


    Contact:


    For further information, contact Anita Saunders, head of public relations, on 0207 826 4716, or 07769 682373


    or e-mail anita.saunders@gold.org.


    Footnotes:


    * Like its predecessor, Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA 2) will run for five years, from September 2004 to September 2009. The maximum amount of gold that can be sold is higher than CGBA 1 at 2,500 tonnes (compared with 2,000 tonnes) over five years. Interestingly, while the first agreement specified that sales each year would be “around” 400 tonnes, under CBGA 2 sales each year will be a maximum of 500 tonnes. **Correct as of 26 May 2004.

  • Anmerkung zum WGC Gold Bericht


    Folgende rot hervorgehobene Aussage ist nachweislich falsch !!!


    Zitat

    Net central bank selling of 96 tonnes was lower than a year earlier with sales by Switzerland, Norway and routine sales by the Philippines, partly offset by an acquisition of 28 tonnes by Argentina.


    Die phillipinische Zentralbank hat schon längstens praktisch alles Gold geswappt (gegen Fiat Money getauscht)!


    Das Gold ist schon lange weg! Ganz einfach nicht mehr physisch vorhanden, an ein Finanzinstitut vermietet, gegen Fiat Money und etwas Zinsen abgegeben, als der Goldpreis noch unter 280.- Dollar pro Unze stand.


    Dieses Gold physisch zurückzuerhalten ist praktisch unmöglich, da werden nun dieses Goldvorräte die nur noch auf dem Papier zum Schein bestehen, halt als "Routine Gold Verkäufe" ausgegeben. Ähnlich wie bei den SNB Verkäufen von gesammthaft 1300 Tonnen Gold geschehen.


    Die Phillipinen können gar keine routine Gold Verkäufe vorgenommen haben. Was das WGC als routine Gold Verkäufe der Phillipinen vermeldet, sind nichts anderes als Ausbuchungen der bereits vor Jahren physisch ins Ausland verschifften Goldbestände.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    Ein Beweis:

  • Hallo Warren !!!


    Wir haben das Problem das die Medien und die Finanzwelt auf biegen und
    brechen mannipuiert werde. Dein Kommentar ( Posting ) bzw. deine Antwort hinsichtlich des Forumsmitglied Pfannekuchen ( User ) können schlichter,sachlicher und zutreffender nicht sein. Ich hatte am Sonntag
    ein Schlüsselerlebnis der besonderen Art. In Freundeskreisen, am Sonntag wo 3 Wohlstandsrentner über den Spritpreis jammerten, wurde auch der Vorschlag geäußert, die Ökosteuere zurückzuziehen. Wohlweislich machte ich sie darauf aufmerksam das dann auch Ihre Rente gekürzt werden müsse, da diese ein Bestandteil Ihrer Rente sei. Der Rest war schweigen im Walde. Des weiteren war eine Frau anwesend, die bis vor kurzem noch bei der Dresdner
    Bank beschäftigt war, mit beachtlicher Abfindung nach hause geschickt wurde, jetzt 1 1/2 Jahre arbeitsloß ist u. dann in Rente geschickt wird.
    Sie ist 54 Jahre alt. Nach dieser Info, wurde meine Freundin schlagartig sehr schweigsam, sie ist in der Reisebranche tätig ( 22 Stunden), muß gewaltig um ihren Arbeitsplatz kämpfen, fährt erst mit dem Auto zum Zug, und dann mit der S-Bahn in die City. Sie ist 54 Jahre alt, muß so wie die Dinge stehen noch 13 Jahre arbeiten, und hat mit tötlicher Sicherheit weniger Rente als bewußte Bank-Person. Pech gehabt ???. Ja das hat sie.
    Aber warum ? Blindheit, Ungerechtigkeit, Betrug, Manipulation, Lügengebilde usw. usw.sind die Ursache des Glaubens an die da Oben. Betrogen ist derjenige der an die glaubt, die Lügen, Betrügen, Manipulieren und uns ihre eigene Wahrheit verkaufen wollen, nur um Ihren Arsch und Ihre Macht zu retten. Hier sind wir wieder
    am Anfang der Geschichte die mit Spinner, und Gehirnamputierten begann. Ich komme jetzt zum Ende des Posting. Meinem Nachbarn sagte ich heute Abend, wenn unsere Regierung einen Weg wüßte, eine Wärungsreform ohne Machtverluste zu erleiden, hätten wir sie eher Morgen als Übermorgen. Das wars


    Gruß Jürgen
    Altgermane

  • Die Alarmzeichen häufen sich immer mehr!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://globalelements.ft.com/FTCOM/Wrapper/gen_logo_home.gif]


    http://news.ft.com/servlet/Con…944457521&p=1012571727088


    Personal debt in UK reaches 'alarming' levels

    By Anna Fifield, Economics Reporter
    Published: June 2 2004 10:27 | Last Updated: June 2 2004 10:27


    Mortgage lending soared to a new record in April, taking Britons' overall debt to their highest level yet, figures from the Bank of England showed on Wednesday.


    Consumer debt is on the brink of exceeding Britain's annual national income, further increasing the chances the Bank will raise rates again next week to curb the continued run-up in debt.


    Mortgage lending rose by a record £9.8bn in April, accelerating from the £9.2bn increase in March and breaching the previous monthly record of £9.6bn in September last year.


    Coupled with a £1.33bn increase in credit card and other unsecured lending during April, slower than the previous month's £1.65bn rise, total net lending rose by £11.1bn to £985bn during the month.


    Economists called the numbers "alarming".


    Zitat

    "This is yet more evidence that consumers and house buyers have not been deterred by the Bank's gradualist approach so far to tightening monetary policy," said Howard Archer of Global Insight

    .


    The continued increases in debt levels enhanced the case for a second successive quarter-point rate rise when the Bank's monetary policy committee meets next week, Mr Archer said, even though the data related to the month before the May increase.


    At current growth rates, total net lending will breach the £1,000bn mark later this month. This is equivalent to Britain's annual economic output, and is as much as the external debt of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia put together.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com




    June 2 - Gold $391.30 down $3.10 - Silver $5.81 down 23 cents


    Will Tomorrow Be The Turnaround Day?


    Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other one thing...Abraham Lincoln


    GO GATA!!!!


    Simply put, if a market is not allowed to go up, it will go down. That is the message The Gold Cartel sent to the hedge funds and other specs inclined to try the long side of this market. Yesterday, oil closed in all-time high ground and gold was shellacked off its high in the US. Today, the dollar was hit fairly hard early and the same bunch of crooks came back in to take gold down sharply after it had rallied $2.50 following the Comex opening. The cabal gold blast in the early going sent out a strong message to the specs: stay long at your own peril. They made it clear that no matter what the outside markets do, they are not going to ALLOW gold to rise for the time being – well, at least for yesterday and today.


    You have to wonder what is going on behind the scenes which has The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets in such a twit? These past two days the manipulation of the gold price has been particularly egregious and blatant. Could there be some derivatives problems brewing?


    Rumor floated this AM from a private news service:


    Follow-up: China rate hike speculation


    We noted rumors of a near-term China rate hike in our 10:26 comment. Two possible catalysts for this speculation are an AFP report today that China's bank regulator ordered a halt on loans to unapproved projects, and a forecast from China's State Information Center, a semi-official agency, that Q2 GDP growth would be a very strong 11.4%. The primary effect of the speculation has been a sell-off in metals including gold and copper, and a related decline in stocks such as AA, PD, and NEM. Oil prices are also near session lows. Industrial stocks such as CAT and DE which have suffered in past China-related declines have held up better.


    -END-


    The gold open interest fell another 5855 contracts to 228,721. The Gold Cartel really stuck it to the specs; first on the long side and then on the short side. For the moment, the specs may be burnt out and fed up with taking on the casino. Many probably figure there are fairer venues to place their bets. However, this huge drop in open interest sets the stage for them to come piling in once gold takes out its 200-day moving average right above $397, followed by a move above $400.


    I’m sure many traders are also loathe to be long gold ahead of the big jobs report Friday. Could the "something wrong" out there be the jobs report will be a major disappointment? Is the Gold Cartel knocking bullion preemptively?


    After a higher opening, silver weakened very fast and led gold down. There were few bids below the market and it tanked very easily. Don’t know what to make of it. Silver really took a hit!


    The silver open interest rose a piddly 195 contracts to 85,891.


    One plus is the silver warehouse stocks are continuing to drop. The new number is 118,379,579 ounces. This is only a beginning, however, if we get below 110 million ounces some bells and whistles will start going off.

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    An "Australian" culprit?


    Wednesday, June 2, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.21, PM $5.27, with world gold at $394.30 and $395.40. Right at legal import point. The rupee gained for the sixth day running, and the stock market firmed again, with overseas buyers net positive for the third day.


    Japan was (understandably) not particularly impressed by gold’s Western Hemisphere performance yesterday. On aggregate volume equal to only 14,213 Comex lots (15% above yesterday), the active contract rose 13 yen and open interest edged up by 741 Comex contract equivalent. World gold went out $1.25 above the NY close. Inspection of the Trade House long data suggests that there is some modest accumulation by the general public: modest, however, considering the keen awareness in Japan of the Oil price. NY yesterday traded 56,452; open interest dropped a further 5,855 contracts to 228,721.)


    Gold, of course, began the NY day yesterday with the sort of surge one might reasonably expect given global events and the oil price action over the long weekend. In Standard London’s words:


    "Steady moves up in gold continued through London hours with New York opening firmly at $396.00 bid. Increasing geo-political tension and USD weakness saw aggressive Fund buying return to the market and gold soared to the day’s high bid of $398.70."


    Very rapidly, this move was crushed. Macquarie offers the most coherent explanation:


    "With floor locals and short term specs long, heavy Australian bank selling squashed the rally, sending gold back to almost unchanged on the day into the close."


    a point which most Bullion Bank commentators missed (or ignored) but which is seconded by UBS:


    "Gold opened at the 200 day moving average level of $396 in New York yesterday and…hit a high of about $398.50…spent the rest of the session under pressure, not helped by the decent XAUAUD related selling noted (probably a small producer hedging deal out of Australia) and ended around $396.30, barely a dollar above the lows."


    This "small producer", also noted by UBS as an "aggressive seller" via an Australian bank on Monday (in the absence of London or NY) has successfully prevented gold clearing the c.$396 200 day average for three days now, quite an achievement. Opportunistic traders will certainly have taken note. Gold’s friends will doubt that the order was either Australian or a producer.


    Those interested in the likely disposition of the enhanced oil revenues accruing to parties in unfashionable areas of the world would do well to consider the implications of


    http://www.counterpunch.org/cassel05292004.html


    From this it appears that Washington, by the utilization of "National Security Letters" is not only able to force an Internet Service Provider "to provide passwords and identifying information that will allow the government to target people….The same mechanism of NSLs is used to obtain information from librarians, health care providers, and business records of individuals and entities. The party from whom the government demands information is forbidden from telling the client that the FBI is being provided information…"


    such that the plaintiffs in an ACLU lawsuit protesting this have been banned from disclosing their identities. The Founding Fathers would have immediately recognized this style of government: as stemming from Czarist Russia. Any one whose funds are accessible via a computer linked to the "World Wide Web" has something to think about.


    JB

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The euro followed gold down. Gold began to break after the euro rose around 80 points. It was not until gold tanked that the euro followed suit, closing at 122.18, down .40. The dollar was flat.


    Kuwait came out saying oil would drop $6 to $8 per barrel in the weeks to come and crude was hit hard, falling $2.37 per barrel.


    The DOW gained 60 to 10,263, while the DOG fell 2 to 1988.


    A highly regarded money manager receives market input and analysis from many sources. He says so far Mike Bolser has nailed the stock market better than any of these Pros.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $3.5 Billion in repos today June 2nd 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to dip to $36.95 Billion. The repo pool's 30-day ma trend is maintained in an up slope adding support in a gradual manner so as to keep the DOW futures fed and happy.


    Recall that the daily add of repos is carefully structured in order to confuse anyone attempting to obtain useful trend information. Indeed, I have found after years of observation that the Fed never exposes its main control metric to direct public view. They always shield the indexes by at least three levels of opacity. Only after going to a 30-day moving average of the repo pool did the true nature of its support activity become visible. First it was necessary to aggregate the pool size and this required a running total including expirations. Then it was necessary to add the DOW to the chart in order to search for correlations, Finally it was necessary to add moving averages to both the repo pool AND the DOW before the relationship could be seen. This appears to be the chart (Or one like it) used by the Fed itself.


    Interventional Analysis


    What I do is radically different from what is known as "Technical Analysis" or TA. Understanding how government intervenes in free markets to obtain its goals requires special computer techniques such as multi-phasic regression, the application of fraud detection algorithms, basic statistical science and cryptanalysis.


    Conventional TA is flawed in that it uses plainly visible price and volume indicators, draws lines from peak to peak and looks only backwards assuming that the controlling forces will always remain static. The assumptions made in TA are not valid in a manipulated environment of "national security" finance. They are valid in a free market.


    In proving COMEX gold preemptive selling, I used a simple but powerful premise, historical probabilities. By recording 15 years of daily COMEX data it became clear that extreme (4 standard deviation) events correlated with other gold cartel happenings and this analysis was used in Howe v. BIS.


    Current gold interventional changes


    Last week I alerted readers to a potential change in one of my metrics. It has continued through Tuesday of this week and intensified to the point where I can safely say that the Fed has made a significant alteration to its gold market capping methodology. The DIVG 200-day ma has moved from a linear 9% upslope towards a flat phase. The leveling off move is un-mistakable and signals the Fed is attempting to more strongly defend a specific DIVG level, possibly DIVG=343 to 345.


    Since the DIVG is the product of the PM Fix and the major currency dollar index (MCDI), a flat DIVG 200-day ma means that gold and the MCDI will move exactly in opposite directions AND by the same magnitudes. In other words, instead of gold gaining against the dollar it will stay even for the duration of this new attempted defense level.


    The last time the Fed tried this they failed as we can clearly see by examining the yellow 200-day ma trace. They defended three times and then gave up, retreating to the higher level of today. They defended the DIVG level of 323, the value prevalent at the last dollar/euro parity, Dec 5, 2002. We will have to wait for about ten days to have the full tracing but we can expect more hammering on the COMEX and LBMA right around $400 gold and MCDI = 87.


    Why now?


    One should not waste too much energy guessing why the Fed is acting now to recap the DIVG 200-day ma. If you must ask, the simplest answer is usually correct. They are in deep trouble with other strategic commodities and this is the likely correct answer. In any case, the pressure on them is up and the probability of an accident is much higher today than it was two weeks ago.


    Mike


    http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis


    The latest from Mr. Fed:


    Rate hike pace likely to be measured - Greenspan


    WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said low inflation and underutilized resources meant the Fed could likely raise interest rates at a measured pace, according to a letter released on Wednesday.


    "The current backdrop of low inflation and underutilized resources suggests that the transition to a more neutral policy stance can be undertaken at a pace that is likely to be measured," Greenspan said in a May 14 letter to Democratic Sen.
    Paul Sarbanes of Maryland.


    Greenspan also said in the letter it would be inappropriate to judge the likely pace of Fed rates hikes on the basis of past episodes. –END-


    From The King Report last evening:


    Remember when Bush’s chief economic adviser, Larry Lindsay, was fired for stating the cost of an Iraq incursion would be about $200B? Bushies said the cost would be $60B. The cost is already $119B and it’s estimated to be $170B+ by the end of 2005. The administration says the US will be out by 2006. Most analysts estimate the total cost will be $300B to $500B. Yet intractabulls and shills still base their forecasts on Bush administration data and estimates. At one time it would’ve been careers.


    We are once again disgusted at the duplicitous headlines over the ISM and other ‘opinion surveys’. This headline appeared yesterday on Reuters: "U.S. manufacturing chugged to a full year of expansion in May, pushing factory hiring to its highest in 31 years, a survey released on Tuesday showed." The reality is manufacturing employment is lower today than it was a year ago; and it’s substantially lower than 1973. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm


    For the past several weeks we have been ‘banging the table’ that despite all the cant about the Fed hiking rates Easy Al has gone to turbo-charge on the monetary aggregates. Now, more analysts are recognizing that Easy Al is back doing his one trick – creating massive amounts of credit. The question is why?


    When Richard Russell speaks, one should listen: "What in hell is the Fed doing, and why?" The Greenspan Fed has boomed the broad M-3 money supply by $155 billion over the last four weeks (up a huge $46.8 billion in the most recent week). At this rate, M-3 is climbing at a $2 trillion annualized rate (a mind-blowing annualized growth rate of just over 22 percent!).


    What is the Fed thinking? They’re acting as if we’re facing some kind of monster crisis, a crisis that will require this incredible increase in liquidity. Does the Fed know something that we don’t know? Is there some great danger looming just over the horizon? Or is the massive increase in liquidity simply Greenspan’s way of paying President Bush back for reappointing him to another four years as Fed chief?" http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf


    Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports planned job cuts increased 1.6% to 73,368 in May compared with 72,184 in April. They are 6.9% higher than last May. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in planned job cuts and the first y/y increase since December. New era ‘boom times’ sure have some strange features.


    -END-


    Gold demand input:


    June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Jill Leyland, senior economic adviser at the World Gold Council, talks with Bloomberg's Jeremy Naylor in London about world gold demand, sales of gold by central banks and the outlook for second-quarter demand for gold jewelry. The World Gold Council said gold demand rose 11 percent in the first quarter.


    On silver:
    Dear Bill,
    Thanks again for putting on that Mahendra party. It was a great time.


    I was re-reading the CFTC response again and I noticed something else that's bullish for silver. The CFTC admits that silver inventories are only 27.5 weeks, down from 2.5 years in 1989, and the stockpiles continue to decrease as we have a supply deficit. If the government numbers are right, and we deplete the stockpiles at the current rate, we would be out of silver in less than 4 years! I hadn't noticed anyone else make this point before, but it's great for our camp in the long run. Today was not a good day for silver, as you know.


    Jennifer Barry
    Discount Silver Club



    The way it is:


    Bill,
    What I feel is a real injustice in this country is that the privileged few enjoy going outside of the law with impunity. The tragedy is that innocent investors have lost a tremendous amount of money believing that investing in gold is fair and honest. While the government comes down hard on the Marthas, they look the other way when the privilege few abrogate the law.


    My supposition for the criminality is that during the era of Reagan, the robber barons were given a green light to loot the world. It backfired on them when they grabbed such a big handful of loot from the world's jar; their hand got stuck in the neck of the jar and threatened the bankruptcy of the entire world. In order to prevent this, the central banks used every approach they could muster to bail out the robber barons. Unfortunately the gold investors were one of their myriad victims. Evils such as this are the reason I believe we don't have a freedom democracy. One law of reality is that a fraud will become pregnant with baby frauds that threaten to become five hundred pound gorillas. Today there is big trouble in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, increase in oil price and the concomitant increase in the cost of living, threat of the interest rate increase and my last look the price of gold is down about six dollars and thirty cents. The reason for this is they are putting their finger in the hole of the stonewall of gold to prevent a deluge.


    ***


    The gold shares continued to set back, digesting gains after their previous run up. The XAU lost .56 to 87.82 and the HUI fell 2.32, down 193.93. Both closed well off their lows.


    The best news (only good news) of the day:


    Dear Bill,

    TODAYS DOWNWARD TREND I WAS EXPECTING TOMORROW BUT HEPPENED TODAY, SO BIG TURN AROUND IN METAL FINALLY WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY... WATCH THATS WHAT PLANETS ARE INDICATING ME...
    NOW WE ARE READY AND AFTER DOWNWARD TREND OF 40 DAYS NOW I AM PREDICTIONG MAJOR RISE IN GOLD AND FINALLY IT WILL CROSS 400 MARK DURING NEXT WEEK.


    THANKS & GOD BLESS

    MAHENDRA


    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    After a brief exchange, Mahendra came back with:


    Dear Bill,

    It is good thing that metal came down today, it is a great positive sign, I know nobody will understand me but this is the fact.


    NOW TELL YOUR GOLD COMMUNITY TO GET READY, FASTEN SEATBELT, GOLD BELOW $400 WILL BE HISTORY SOON IN FEW DAYS.

    I AM WITH YOU.

    THANKS & GOD BLESS

    MAHENDRA

    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    Don’t forget to check out Mahendra’s subscription offer at his site.


    Let us hope Mahendra is right. Maybe he will be, maybe not. For sure, no equivocation on his part and his notes picked up my spirits. These past two days, with such high expectations in the early goings, have felt like being in the ring with Mohammed Ali.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    Appendix


    To: Chairman and Board of CFTC


    I am trying to understand you and your Board’s reasoning regarding the casual inattention by COMEX to the blatant market manipulation of silver and gold through naked short sales. You recently tried to justify your regulatory inactivity in a letter to a inquiring congressman. I read it and was astounded by its contents. In light of this type of bad news we see daily in the newspapers, I do not see how you could possibly justify no evidence of illegal intervention or market manipulation? News like this, even in small doses, has always caused markets in precious metals to rise as investors seek safety.


    Let’s just look at a few of this last week’s news items which logically should have driven the prices of gold and silver up. Any small combination of them should have caused the market in precious metals to rise significantly, as they have done historically over the centuries with lesser combinations of disturbing news. However, precious metals prices decreased or remained almost static during this period. How could this be true without manipulation or illegal market intervention and huge naked short selling?


    Reflect on these news items published just this last week:


    1.The Attorney General warns us about al Qeida terrorist strikes within the US this summer.
    2.The number of attacks on civilians and soldiers in Iraq has rapidly accelerated.
    3.Orders for durable goods in the US fell 2.1%
    4.Sales of new houses fell 11.8%, the biggest drop in a decade.
    5.30 year mortgage rates rose almost 1%.
    6.US crude oil stocks fell by 700,000 bbls.
    7.al Qeida terrorists attack and kill 20 inside Saudi Arabia.
    8.Silver warehouse stocks fell 750,000 ounces in the last 2 days.
    9.The Fed increased M3 money supplies by $156 Billion over the last 4 weeks.
    10.The dollar fell against the Euro, New Zealand $ and Australian $.
    11.Bianco reports institutional bond managers more bearish than they have been in the last 15 years.
    12.Bond dealers are short the bond market for the first time in 15 years and bonds are at multi-generational lows.
    13.There is a 27 trillion dollar overhang of interest rate derivatives and a 41 billion dollar overhang of gold derivatives in one single trading house – JP Morgan to be exact.
    14.The EU is lobbying for the oil trade being switched from dollars to a basket of currencies.
    15.There is increasing talk on the financial pages questioning the accuracy of the government published economic data.
    16.The General Accounting Office stated that published government financial statistics may not be reliable.
    17.The Federal Reserve Band has not produced an audited statement since 9/11/01.
    18.The Federal Government has not been able to balance their books for the past 7 years and has published data reflecting at least 3.3 trillion dollars of undocumented adjustments.
    19.The Agriculture Department’s All Farm Products Indicator for May rose 7% over April’s number and is at the highest level since 1910.


    And that is just a smattering of one weeks news items.


    In the face of all this news, gold and silver prices do not react with a rise. If fact, they decrease. The 8 large COMEX traders continue to manipulate silver using naked short selling in such volumes that it exceeds 7 times world mine production and is many times greater than all discernible world inventories. And you, as our market regulators, do nothing and even look the other way to please those that injure the free market.


    I find the facts and conclusions stated in your letter to be disingenuous, unrealistic, and unwarranted, if not outright fabrications. One day soon, your statements and inaction will come back to haunt both you and the country and you will have to answer to your perfidious inattention to your sworn duties and responsibilities as regulators. Your comeuppance will be rewarding to watch but it will be sad to see the effects your blind inactivity will have on the country.


    Please get real – there may still be time to head off the problem. Give us back the free market.


    Do something to reflect honor on your sworn duty! Or resign and let someone else with integrity do so.


    Walter Ryan


    waltryan@earthlink.net

  • der brave soldat schwejk meldet ganz gehorsamst, daß,
    wenn jemand etwas "verkauft", was ihm nicht gehört, der ein betrüger ist;


    daß, wenn ein treuhänder etwas "verleiht" - und das noch im wissen, es nicht mehr in gleicher güte zurückerhalten kann, dafür aber noch kassiert - ohne wissen des treugebers, er untreue begeht;


    daß, wenn kohlhausen und eichel den koch-weser herholen, damit der betrug und untreue zur "spielregel" freier marktwirtschaft macht, sie dann verbrecher sind;


    daß niemand aber sagen darf, daß es sich um verbrechen handelt, weil daß wieder "antisemitismus" wäre.


    na, ja, so sind kohlhausen und eichel wenigstens schlau, meldet schwejk auch noch gehorsamst. mit otto schulze hätte es aus einsichtigen gründen ja schließlich nicht geklappt.

  • Aus "BUSINESS DAY" vom 3.6.2004:


    Russian tycoon circling Gold Fields.


    By John Helmer


    MOSCOW - Vladimir Potanin, the controlling shareholder of Norilsk Nickel, may have begun a bid to take over Gold Fields.
    Potanin may have bought new shares to add to the 20% stake which he acquired on March 29 through Norilsk Nickel and its London affiliate, Norimet.
    The apparent share-buying move was disclosed last week by a Moscow mining industry source, but Gold Fields and market sources agree that it would be a long shot for the Potanin group to be buying Gold Fields shares just yet.
    They also agree that it would be very hard to detect if they are.
    A market source told Business Day the average daily value of Gold Fields trading in New York over the past year has been about $25m.
    The source says if Norilsk Nickel, its holding company Interros, Potanin or a related party were buying the shares without moving the market, they would probably be aiming at a buy rate of between 10% and 15% of that value per day. That totals a maximum daily acquisition of about $4m.
    Buying at that rate to build up the Russian stake to 30% of Gold Fields would take between three and four months, which is not impossible, the source says.
    "But you would have to file with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) every few days that another 1% was accumulated."
    Gold Fields, for its part, said earlier this week it was unaware of any additional purchase of its shares by Norilsk Nickel other than the 20% purchased from Anglo American.
    Potanin's spokeswoman Nina Dementsova was evasive when asked to confirm or deny whether Potanin, Interros or related parties have been buying Gold Fields shares. "Interros has never purchased any shares of Gold Fields," she said.
    Sergei Polikarpov, investment relations spokesman for Norilsk Nickel, refused to respond to any questions.
    The text of the March 29 2004 purchase agreement was attached to a filing by Norilsk Nickel unit Norimet to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington on April 7. Also attached was the text of the borrowing agreement between Norilsk Nickel and Citibank, dated March 30 2004. These funds, plus $316m in Norilsk Nickel's cash, were used to fund Norimet's purchase of the Gold Fields stake from Anglo American for $1,16bn.
    The deal is the largest Russian corporate purchase of an offshore asset. It is the largest Russian investment in a South African asset.
    The SEC disclosures represent the first time major Russian corporate transactions have been exposed to public scrutiny.
    Norilsk Nickel is the world's leading producer and exporter of nickel and palladium; it also sells large volumes of copper, gold, and cobalt. It is the principal global rival to SA's platinum producers.
    The group said yesterday that 2003 profit rose 47% as it mined more metals amid rising world prices. Net income rose to $861m last year, from $584m in 2002, under international accounting standards, the company said in an e-mailed statement. Sales rose 68% to $5,2bn.
    "The main reasons for the increase in sales were bigger export volumes, as well as higher average prices for base metals, gold and platinum group metals except palladium," Norilsk said.
    Norilsk executives said again in London last week they would not remain a passive portfolio investor in Gold Fields. Several plans were under discussion with Gold Fields executives, when CEO Ian Cockerill visited Moscow at the end of April.


    Business Day
    ?(

  • silversurfer,


    schön wäre es ja. Wir haben ja gesehen, wie schnell der Preis bei Silber innerhalb weniger Wochen steigen kann (okay, und wieder fallen kann... :( )

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

  • Kuddel


    Na dann dürften wir uns ja sehr bald auf höhere Gold Fields Aktien Preise einrichten, fals der Vladimir Potanin von der russischen Norilsk wirklich GFI übernehmen will.


    Würde ja für ihn auch viel Sinn machen, wenn es denn wahr wäre.
    Er hat seine vernickelten Rubel vor dem russischen Fiskus, und anderer Begierden in Sicherheit gebracht, und gleichzeitig hätte er ein in Bezug auf zu erwartende weit höhere Gold Preise, ein Rendite trächtiges, ungehedgtes, wertsteigerndes Investment erster Güte zur Hand.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.busrep.co.za/site/2…es/banner/site_header.gif]


    http://www.busrep.co.za/index.…Id=564&fArticleId=2097973


    Thursday 3rd June


    Bullion looks bullish as US deficit threatens stability

    June 2, 2004


    By Sandy McGregor


    In the face of uncertainty in world markets, many investors are buying gold as a store of value, as reflected in its rising price.


    In its long history, gold has gone from being a commodity used to make jewellery to a currency - and then, when the gold backing of currencies was removed, it reverted largely to a commodity. Now it is back in a monetary role, as confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge accumulated deficit.


    Before 1971 gold was central to the international monetary system. The dollar was exchangeable into gold and central banks held a large proportion of their foreign reserves in bullion
    "Gold's price rise reflects concerns about the future of the existing economic order"

    .
    This system collapsed because investors came to distrust the dollar. Faced with the prospect of not being able to meet the demand for gold, central banks demonetised the metal.


    This did not stop the gold price from reaching very high levels during the 1970s, rising to a peak of over $800 an ounce in 1980.


    In the early 1980s a new economic paradigm developed. Monetary policy was conducted more prudently and markets operated more freely. Consequently, inflation was largely eliminated, restoring trust in currencies.


    Gold reverted to being purely a commodity consumed mainly in jewellery. Central banks, having a big inventory of gold as a legacy of the fixed exchange rate regime, became major sellers.


    By 1999 the price was so low it became impossible to develop new gold mines profitably. Predictably, the market started to correct this mispricing.


    Under the Washington agreement, European central banks agreed to co-ordinate their sales and gold has been on an upward trend ever since.

    Over the past year a renewed interest in gold as a store of value and as a hedge against financial instability has changed the character of the gold market.


    No longer driven by the demand for jewellery, the gold price is determined by speculators and investors who are increasingly worried about the dollar.


    The similarities to the early 1970s are uncanny: poorly conducted monetary policy, a crisis in the Middle East, an American president who does not command confidence outside the US and the emergence of a new economic power in Asia.


    Confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge current account deficit. The US has had an adverse balance of payments for the past 22 years, which it has been able to finance by attracting investment funds from the rest of the world.


    This is both because the deficit is now so large and the focus of private sector investment is increasingly on Asia.


    If markets operated freely, this would not be a problem.


    Asian currencies would rise to a level that restored equilibrium of trade and capital flows. This is not happening because Asian central banks have intervened massively to keep their currencies pegged to the dollar.


    Where will it end? The simple answer is that no one knows. The scale of the imbalance between the US and the rest of the world is huge and the longer intervention prevents adjustments, the greater the dislocation will be when the inevitable correction occurs.


    In the face of these uncertainties, some people are again buying gold as a store of value. They do not know what will happen but sense great dangers ahead.


    Some remember that it took more than a decade to correct the policy mistakes of the 1960s.


    The rising price of gold reflects increasing concerns about the future of the existing economic order.




    Sandy McGregor is a director at Allan Gray

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.rundschau-online.de/kr/img/pg_logo.gif]



    Euro steigt nach OPEC-Entscheidung

    17:31 Uhr



    Frankfurt/Main (dpa) - Die aus Sicht der Finanzmärkte enttäuschende Entscheidung der OPEC, die Rohölförderung nicht sofort um 2,5 Millionen Barrel zu erhöhen, hat den Kurs des Euro am Donnerstag steigen lassen. Am späten Nachmittag wurde die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung mit 1,2237 US-Dollar notiert. Im frühen Handel war der Euro noch mit 1,2170 Dollar notiert worden. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hatten den Referenzkurs zuvor auf 1,2226 (Mittwoch: 1,2276) Dollar festgesetzt. Der Dollar kostete damit 0,8179 (0,8146) Euro.


    "Die insgesamt etwas enttäuschend ausgefallene Entscheidung der OPEC hat den Dollar belastet", sagte Carsten Fritsch, Devisenexperte bei der Commerzbank. Die US-Wirtschaft leide besonders unter dem hohen Ölpreis. Der Ölverbrauch sei dort deutlich höher als in Europa. Diese Entwicklung dürfte das Wachstum bremsen und gleichzeitig zu einem höheren Preisdruck führen.


    Die Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), die Zinsen unverändert zu belassen, und die anschließenden Äußerungen von EZB- Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet hätten den Markt nicht beeinflusst, sagte Fritsch. Die EZB habe zwar die Inflationsrisiken stärker als zuletzt betont und gleichzeitig ein recht optimistisches Bild der Konjunkturentwicklung gezeichnet. Eine Leitzinsveränderung im laufenden Jahr erwartet Fritsch jedoch nicht.
    Zu anderen wichtigen Währungen legte die EZB die Referenzkurse für einen Euro auf 0,6655 (Mittwoch: 0,6650) britische Pfund, 136,19 (135,64) japanische Yen und 1,5260 (1,5276) Schweizer Franken fest. Die Feinunze Gold wurde in London mit 390,35 (395,85) Dollar notiert. Der Kilobarren kostete 10 305 (Vortag: 10 385) Euro. (dpa)


    Quelle: http://www.rundschau-online.de


    Na... das wird nicht die letzte Enttäuschung sein... da bin ich mir ziemlich sicher...

  • Diese "Entscheidung", wenn sie denn überhaupt entschieden wurde,
    war von vorneherein klar. Viele der Länder die über Ölvorräte verfügen,
    produzieren bereits an der Kapazitätsgrenze. Jetzt rächt sich die Tat-
    sache, dass in den Neunziger Jahren viel zu wenig Geld in die Exploration
    neuer Ölfelder investiert wurde. Dann auch noch die lange Zeit überse-
    hene Steigerung der Nachfrage aus dem boomenden Asien ...
    Überhaupt, wenn man das momentane Niveau des Ölpreises betrachtet,
    unter Berücksichtigung der Inflation, müssten wir eigentlich noch höhere
    Notierungen sehen. Ich glaube, wir müssen uns auf noch höhere Preise
    einstellen, die Zeiten des billigen Öles sind vorbei.
    Der deutsche Einzelhandel rechnet angesichts der gestiegenen Kraft-
    stoffpreise mit einem erneuten Rückgang der Konsumentenausgaben,
    ingesamt doch recht "rosige Aussichten" für die deutsche Binnenkon-
    junktur.


    Gruss


    Warren

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://ad22.vhb.de/hbi/images/logo.gif]


    Sinkende Arbeitslosenzahlen setzen Gold unter Druck

    Goldpreis gibt weiter nach

    Gold hat in Europa trotz eines leicht gesunkenen Dollars seine Verluste vom Vortag ausgeweitet. Das Hauptaugenmerk der Marktteilnehmer richtet sich Händler zufolge auf die morgigen US-Arbeitslosenzahlen für den Mai.

    HB LONDON. Die Zahlen könnten einen deutlicheren Hinweis darauf geben, ob die US-Notenban die historisch niedrigen Leitzinsen Ende des Monats anheben könnte. Sinkende Arbeitslosenzahlen würden die US-Währung steigen lassen und Gold unter Druck setzen, da sich das Wechselkursverhältnis für das in Dollar gehandelte Gold für Investoren mit anderen Währungen verschlechtern würde.


    Der Opec-Beschluss zur Erhöhung des Öl-Förderung und die anhaltenden geopolitischen Spannungen haben den Goldmarkt nach Angaben von Händlern kaum beeindruckt. Auch weitere Faktoren wie der stärker als erwartete Rückgang des US-Auftragseingangs im April haben dem Gold keine Impuls verliehen.


    Die Feinunze Gold stand zum europäischen Handelsschluss bei 388,60/389,10 Dollar nach 394,55/395,25 Dollar zum Vortagesschluss. Am Nachmittag wurde das gelbe Metall in London bei 390,35 Dollar gefixt, am Vormittag bei 391,40 Dollar. Am Mittwochnachmittag lautete das Fixing noch auf 394,85 Dollar. Silber sank auf 5,79/5,81 Dollar von 5,99/6,02 Dollar am Vorabend.



    HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 03. Juni 2004, 18:28 Uhr

    Quelle: http://www.handelsblatt.com

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A