Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    02 Jun 2004 20:54



    02.06.2004 20:48:22 TECHNICALS - COMEX/NYMEX metals technical indicators


    GOLD SILVER PLATINUM PALLADIUM COPPER
    AUG JUL JUL SEPT JUL


    Close June 2 $392.50 $5.838 $826.40 $246.90 124.80
    High 398.00 6.110 843.80 255.25 130.00
    Low 391.00 5.800 825.00 245.20 124.25


    5-DAY M.A. 394.20 6.004 836.10 251.34 126.78
    20-DAY M.A. 385.20 5.836 808.50 246.57 121.38
    50-DAY M.A. 398.70 6.599 849.80 275.40 125.79


    9-DAY R.S.I. 57.67 33.94 50.22 33.49 50.87
    14-DAY R.S.I. 58.03 40.50 52.98 38.69 54.37



    Note: Data calculated from previous close. Previous high and
    low include ACCESS trading from previous session. Indicators
    are based on the time periods recommended by their developers
    or commonly used by technical analysts. Moving averages are
    simple moving averages. RSI formulas include a smoothing factor
    utilizing an exponential moving average (EMA), determined to be
    the industry standard. All calculations can be made using
    Reuter Graphics or Reuter Technical Analysis products.


    Contract High 433.00 8.490 938.00 342.00 138.20
    Contract Low 324.70 4.360 756.00 229.00 70.90
    First Notice Day Jul 30 Jun 30 Jul 01 Sep 01 Jun 30
    Expiry Date Aug 27 Jul 28 Jul 27 Sep 27 Jul 28


    BULLISH CONSENSUS ON May 25: 24 Month Range
    Low Hi
    Gold 64 from 58 on May 18 13 - 91
    Silver 45 from 37 on May 18 13 - 89
    Platinum 64 from 58 on May 18 14 - 95
    Copper 67 from 58 on May 18 08 - 88


    * Bullish Consensus, Copyrighted, Market Vane Corporation, P.O.
    Box 90490, Pasadena, CA 91109-0490. Phone +1 626 395 7436. The
    survey expresses a percentage of bullish sentiment among
    analysts and advisors. The company said 50 percent is
    considered support in a bull market and resistance in a bear
    market. Data are most recent available.


    For prices, double click on:
    -2


    For related news, double click on:
    [GOL] [MTL] [MET] [MIN] [GOL/X] [PLA/] [COP/X] [MINT] ["DLA"]


    For updated CFTC Commitment of Traders report, double click on
    <1CFTC00> for the latest week's data and <2CFTC00> for the
    previous week's data. Futures/options data is on <3CFTC00> and
    <4CFTC00>.
    ---
    ((New York Commodity Desk, 646-223-6040,
    nyc.commods.newsroom@reuters.com))


    © Reuters 2004

    Skeptiker



    Anbei ein Fundstück zu unserem Lieblingsthema, der ruchlosen Goldpreismanipulation.
    Eine Konversation mit Jimmy Rogers zu diesem Thema von letztem Jahr.


    Das Anliegen von Thaiguru, hier möglichst viele Leute mit der Gold-Story vertraut zu machen, finde ich ja sehr löblich. Leider wird das Thema Goldpreismanipulation dabei aber dermaßen überstrapaziert, dass es auf unbefangene Leute eher abschreckend wirken dürfte (die beiden Comdirect-Charts waren wirklich zum Piepen….). Schade eigentlich.


    Eigentlich wollte ich ja nicht mehr posten, aber nach dem heutigen Schrecken muss ich etwas Konversation machen. Gold ist noch schwächer als der Euro und Silber ist noch schwächer als Gold, es ist zum Heulen. Die astronomischen Kursziele der Edelmetallmafia von 480 USD sind damit wohl in weite Ferne gerückt…. Habe gerade technische Analyse von JP Morgan gelesen, die sehen Silber weiter fallen auf 5,20/10 bis 4,80 USD. Wichtige charttechnische Unterstützung bei 5,80. Sehe nicht, dass die halten wird, zumal der Dollar immer noch durch die bevorstehende Zinssenkung gestützt wird.


    Ich wünsche trotzdem allen viel Glück und weiterhin gute Nerven.


    Grüsse
    Ein unglücklicher Pfannkuchen




    Taylor: Before we leave the issue of currency relationships, it is my strongly held view, based on the work of GATA (http://www.gata.org.), Frank Veneroso, Reginald Howe, (http://www.goldensextent.com) James Turk (http://www.goldmoney.com) and others that the dollar has been highly overvalued by intervention in the markets by the Exchange Stabilization Fund, The Fed, co-operating western central banks who have been dishording gold all through the 1990’s and by the IMF, controlled by the U.S., that makes it illegal for countries to use gold as a medium of exchange. The reason for this intervention I believe is related to a desire to keep the dollar as the world’s uncontested reserve currency and medium of exchange.
    I believe there is compelling circumstantial evidence that top-level policy makers have clandestinely been rigging the gold prices to a lower and lower level. In fact, I think there is very strong evidence that suppressing the gold price even as the Fed began to print money like mad starting with the Mexican bailout in 1994-95, was the key measure by which the Clinton Administration implemented its strong dollar policy of the second half of the 1990’s. Indeed, in a 1988 paper titled, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," which was co-authored by Lawrence H. Summers, then Nathaniel Ropes professor of political economy at Harvard, and Robert B. Barsky, explained that in an environment of declining real interest rates, the gold price must be “capped” or else the currency would decline. The article which was published in the Journal of Political Economy, is available online at http://www.gata.org/gibson.pdf. The article noted that when an expansion in the money supply reduces real interest rates, the price of gold must be “capped” or else the currency will tank and bailouts will be ineffective. Implementation of this gold “capping” exercise occurred in the view of the GATA supporters, myself included, by the U.S. Treasury through the Exchange Stabilization Fund and that economic signals were given to participants by Alan Greenspan who said not once but twice on Capital hill in 1998 that “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price begin to rise.” That statement clearly was a signal to bullion banks that the only smart thing for them to do was to continue on with the “gold carry trade” because according to Greenspan, a supply of gold would continue to cap the gold price and thus negate the need to worry about covering their short positions. These bullion banks did not need to care about monetary policy. They only knew they could continue the trade indefinitely without concern of getting caught short. In our first interviews, I began to touch on this issue briefly, but because the focus of our interview was mostly on The Rogers Raw Materials Index Fund, I didn’t want to waste too much time on the gold conspiracy issue. At that time, you indicated that if these allegations were true, it would be a very serious issue. Have you given any more thought to these gold price manipulation charges since we last spoke? If so, what are your thoughts now?
    Rogers: First of all you said that the Fed was cooperating with western central banks during the 1990’s to dishord gold. You would have to think the central banks of the world are mad if they are trying to hold down the price of gold when they are selling it. I can’t imagine they don’t want to get the highest price possible. The reason they are selling gold is because they think rightly or wrongly, that they can do better than owning gold. I’ve never heard anybody in his right mind who is trying to sell something who tries to keep the price down. When you are selling your house you don’t go around telling people there is a poison pit in the back yard do you? You talk it up.
    Taylor: Which by the way Jim was one of the strange things about the way the Bank of England went about selling gold. They pre-announced to the world that they would be selling gold well in advance of their dishording of ½ of their gold over the next several years.
    Rogers: That was because the government made them do it. You can’t sell that stuff in secret because then you would really be in trouble. Can you imagine what would happen if the U.S. government sold all the gold in Ft. Knox and didn’t tell anybody? They would be hanged!
    Taylor: But traditionally, central banks have sold their gold first and then announced after the fact that they have done so. The British pre-announcement was a departure from that practice and so the question is why would they do it that way when the effect was to suppress the price of gold?
    Rogers: The way the government runs in England, they could not do something like that. The holdings of gold are too important and the Chancellor of the Exchequer would be sacked if he sold all the gold. I’m not saying if it (selling gold) is right or wrong. I’m just saying do you think the Portuguese, the Belgians, all these central banks are nuts? Most of them are nuts by the way but they are not that nuts. In my view most central banks should be abolished too. People running them are dregs on society. But be that as it may, they do have enough sense to know that if they are selling something, they won’t try to drive the price down. They will try to get it up. So I find that on its face, I find it hard for me to accept the notion that these guys would all get together to drive the gold price down. And besides even if that were their plan, eventually they would run out of gold and then what’s going to happen. They don’t own all the gold in the world. They would know that somebody in the back of the room would stand up and say, “Wait a minute, if we all sell our gold, and there is no gold left, what happens next?
    Taylor: Well the central bankers and politicians might reason that that could be someone else’s problem in the future because they still have quite a lot of gold left.
    Rogers: Ok, that may be the answer. But I don’t quite buy that either. I don’t think they are smart enough. In fact I think they are dumb. I don’t think they could get away with a conspiracy like that. You would have to have twenty or thirty central banks around the world. The personnel turn over all the time. By now, somebody would have told us. “Guess what, we’ve got a problem with our gold.” So this could not have been kept a secret for the last ten or fifteen years with 30 central banks where all the central bank heads have turned over, the bureaucrats have turned over. Somebody would have leaked it by now.
    Taylor: Fair enough. I understand your point.
    Rogers: But I don’t quite understand your last point about Summers and Greenspan and the gold carry trade.
    Taylor: Essentially, Lawrence Summers wrote a paper on Gibson’s Paradox.
    Rogers: Well, forget Summers. I don’t have much respect for him. But it is the last sentence that I am trying to figure out.
    Taylor: What the paper said was that if the banks print a lot of money causing the real interest rates to decline, the gold price has to be capped or else your currency will be weakened. And in fact we started to see an explosion in the money supply corresponding with the Mexican crisis in about 1994 and 1995, which is about the time when, as the GATA people noticed, some strange things started to happen in the gold markets. And that is when the “gold carry trade” began to grow dramatically, essentially we believe with the Exchange Stabilization Fund, managed by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, allowing the bullion banks to have access to a cheap source of funding by borrowing gold at 1% or less and then selling it and reinvesting in U.S. Treasuries or other investments that were paying 6% or 7% at the time.
    Rogers: Wait a minute. You’re getting away from that last sentence. You said the price of gold had to be capped or the bailouts would be ineffective. What does that mean? What bailouts?
    Taylor: Well these would have been the country bailouts such as Mexico, Asia, Russia, and Long Term Capital Management, etc. In other words, the dollar would begin to tank unless you capped the gold price.
    Rogers: O.K., let’s just say that is correct. I mean, Summers is not so smart but lets go forward. I have not read the paper. I don’t know the paper. I don’t know when it was published. Lets say that you had a bad man in Washington doing everything he could to keep the price of gold down. The price of everything else would go through the roof. The price of oil. The price of rubber. The price of silk. The price of cotton. I mean usually if you are putting all your efforts into driving one thing down, there would be so much money flooding into the world that the price of everything else would go to the moon.
    Taylor: I think that is exactly what happened in the equity markets. Even though Greenspan caused the money supply to explode starting with the Mexican crisis, the dollar got stronger which put downward pressure on commodities, but the rising dollar helped suck enormous amounts of foreign money into the U.S. financial markets, which provided considerable energy to expand the various financial bubbles that we have experienced. So I would argue that what you suggest is exactly what happened though more so in financial assets than in commodities. The stronger dollar even as we printed more and more of it made the public feel the U.S. is invincible. And to justify this defiance of the natural laws of nature, Greenspan and the Clinton boys had to come up with the notion of a “new paradigm.”
    Rogers: I find all of this extremely farfetched. It just doesn’t make sense to me. But just one more thought. You say there that Greenspan said central banks stood ready to lease gold if the prices go up. But that is usually the case. When anything goes up, people make a lot of money lending when something goes higher.
    Taylor: O.K. Fair enough. Let’s move on then to another topic.
    Rogers: But Greenspan can’t sell the gold without permission.
    Taylor: He made the statement that central banks stand ready to sell gold in increasing quantities should the price to rise. He denied the Fed was doing it, but he said other central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price begin to rise.
    Rogers: But when you lease, you have to get it back.
    Taylor: But if you lease more each year than you get back, you drain your treasury over time and you can have quite an impact on the price of gold.
    Rogers: But you could have leased all the Cisco you wanted. And you wouldn’t need to cover your short positions?
    Taylor: Well, not for a while.
    Rogers: But I just can’t believe the central banks would be that dumb. I mean you could borrow all the Cisco you wanted in 1997, 1998, 1999. It didn’t keep the price of Cisco down. It went through the roof. Cisco had 7 billion shares. Are you saying that because people kept lending shares of Cisco that there was some kind of manipulation in the price of Cisco? Just because Dreyfus or Fidelity were lending out Cisco, it didn’t mean the brokers who lent the stock wanted its price to go down. Quite the contrary, they wanted the price to go up. As you know if there are a lot of shorts in a stock, it makes it all the more easy to go up because the shorts can get squeezed. So this just doesn’t make sense to me. A big short position should make gold go higher.
    Taylor: Ultimately if they cover, that is for sure.
    Rogers: They have to cover some day.
    Taylor: Perhaps they don’t.
    Rogers: If I’m lending out gold when I call my loan back in, that will make the price go higher and I will squeeze the shorts. I mean this just isn’t logical.
    Taylor: If you assume the government is playing by the same rules citizens are required to play by I would agree with you. But governments can and do get away with all kinds of things we mere mortals cannot get away with. My good friend, London-based Marshall Auerback who does some work for Frank Veneroso and the Prudent Bear Fund, believes that in fact the central banks will ultimately agree to simply turn the gold loans into gold sales because the amount of gold that has been lent out is simply too large to be repaid without triggering an enormous rise in the price of gold and a major derivative crisis.
    Rogers: But Jay that’s’ against the law! Besides they would all look like fools as well as being criminals for having lent the gold and now saying they are not going to ask for it back. Saying we will not ask for the gold back while it is going up in price would bring down any government that tried to explain to the people that they are going to let financiers get rich at the expense of the “good, honest citizens of our country”.
    Taylor: But can’t politicians violate the law?
    Rogers: Well politicians can change the law. But bureaucrats can’t do something like that. If they get caught they go to jail. The bureaucrats may go to the politicians and say, “look, we don’t want to squeeze the shorts, we don’t want to call the gold back in because we sold our gold. Would you change the law?” Any prime minister who did that would be hounded out of office.
    Taylor: I would hope so.
    Rogers: These things do not make logical sense to me and I am one who has been in markets for a long time. It doesn’t make any sense to me.
    Taylor: Well perhaps some of us just enjoy a good conspiracy.
    Rogers: Well but again, suppose this was a conspiracy in Washington. By now Jay, somebody would have nuked it! You have had democratic and Republican administrations. Somebody would have made a name for himself by coming forward and saying, “guess what the Democrats were doing. Or guess what the Republicans were doing. Over the past 15 years, on this theory would, at least scores of people and probably hundreds of people would know this was going on. Do you think none of them would say something? I mean some of these people hate Bill Clinton. If this were happening, the first thing George Bush would have said is “Gosh you won’t believe what the Democrats have been doing.” They sold all your gold.
    Taylor: It was exactly these charges that were filed in a court case by Reginald Howe in front of Judge Lindsey in a Federal District Court in Boston. Judge Lindsey dismissed the case against all the defendants (the big bullion banks, the Fed, the New York Fed, the U.S. Treasury, the BIS), not on the basis that the case had no merit but based on the fact that plaintiff Reginald Howe lacked standing. That is, the judge ruled that Reggie’s $50,000 or $60,000 investment wasn’t large enough for him to permit the discovery phase of the trial to begin. By that rationale, if someone like Newmont Mining were to bring about a suit, a plaintiff like that would have been substantial enough for the case to move into the discovery phase. So the case was dropped. But it certainly seems logical that if the judge felt it was without merit, he would have dismissed it on those grounds or at least said that in his decision.
    Rogers: Don’t you think that if Newmont Mining had a shred of evidence, they would have brought on the case?
    Taylor: That’s the logic that the judge used and apparently there is precedent in the law to allow him to use that logic to dismiss the case. In any event, I try to examine my soul to see if I am guilty of simply enjoying some conspiracy fantasies or if there really is something to this thing. I believe there is, but I try to keep an open mind on this and I certainly respect your views on this matter.
    Rogers: You don’t have to respect my views on this Jay, but I don’t think they are smart enough and even if they were I don’t think they could keep it hidden this long. I do say in my book by the way that I find it interesting that there has not been an audit of Ft. Knox for at least 50 years. Plenty of people have called for an audit. We would certainly like to know why they wouldn’t give us an audit.
    Taylor: Excellent point. But they won’t answer that question, not even when Congressman Paul asks that question. Seems strange doesn’t it? Nor does Congressman Paul get an answer to his question about why the IMF forbids countries to use gold as their currency or to use it as a medium of exchange for trade.
    Rogers: Well they use SDR’s, special drawing rights. That’s the way they move gold around instead of gold itself.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mineweb.net/pics/logo.gif]


    http://www.mineweb.net/events/…es/2004/nyigc/oilgold.htm


    Oil-gold ratio is out of whack


    By: Tim Wood


    Posted: '02-JUN-04 00:10' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    NEW YORK (Mineweb.com) -- The ratio of the price of oil to the price of gold has been a matchbox valuation guide for the hydrocarbon economy as much as the price of good suit was a gentleman's benchmark in an era when horsepower was literal. The price ratio has recently gone beyond normal bounds and that has some investors musing about a catapult for gold assuming things must revert to the mean and since nobody is forecasting cheaper oil anytime soon.


    Lately, oil prices have been hitting record nominal highs above $40 a barrel yet gold has barely kept pace, especially when it suffered a bout of corrective long liquidation. Patrick Chidley, a New York based sell-side analyst for Barnard Jacobs Mellet, said, in a recent note to clients, that since 1971, the number of ounces of gold required to buy one barrel of oil has averaged 0.06oz/bbl.


    At recent prices, the ratio soared above 0.1oz/bbl.- a level seldom seen in the past 34 years since the United States delinked the dollar from gold. "Each breach has been short-lived, usually followed by a dramatic fall," writes Chidley


    With oil fetching better than $42 a barrel after the Saudi Arabian terror attack on some production facilities, the ratio has jumped again to breach the historically high level. That should, if reversion to the mean is not too presumptive, indicate that gold is about to enjoy a resumption in its appreciation trend of the past three years. It is worth noting that the correlation between gold and oil has not been especially meaningful since 9/11, where oil, along with many other commodities have enjoyed a far stronger improvement than precious metals.


    To regain the average ratio of 0.06oz/bbl, gold must cost $700 per ounce or oil must cost $24 per barrel.


    What oil suggests is looming inflation which causes investors to switch to alternative assets such as gold. Chidley warns: "A sustained or continued rise in oil prices from current levels has a good chance at pushing inflation in the US out of the controlled range the market is currently comfortable with." In that case he's backing gold to "possibly provide a hedge against a short oil position."


    There is no incontrovertible evidence that higher oil prices have stoked inflation yet, only that consumers are allocating more of their disposable income to it and less to things like cell phones and entertainment. That is benign only whilst the monetary authorities can balance the threat to other sectors of the economy. With jobs occupying centre stage in this presidential election, the bias will be toward easy credit that allows employers to keep hiring as well as raising salaries which would mark true inflation.


    Chidley suggests a short position oil balanced by a long gold position based on a correction in the gold-oil ratio. However, it would be a tough proposition not to stay long oil as well in this sort of market. After all, if the inflation scenario is a good one, then shorting the dollar and ancillary securities is the better bet.


    There is no reason to think that oil prices can decline yet. We've had the shock of Shell's reserve restatement which seemed to underscore the realization in the late 1990s that resources had been overstated by some 300 million barrels. Hardly trivial and it stems from underestimations of US demand and overestimations of domestic production, which data was relied on to infer global demand and supply, and inventories. Also, the price has kept rising when everyone expected the well-known cheating of OPEC members to release extra supplies to the market. That has not happened and it appears that most producers are running at nearly full capacity. Oil companies will not hastily invest in new, lower margin capacity until they are absolutely convinced that oil prices aren't going back to $10/bbl.


    This all seems to indicate that the Federal Reserve has very few options and the most attractive must be to expand credit in a way that accommodates structurally higher oil prices. The alternative is to choke off growth and that is not an option; at least not before November 5, 2004.

    Hallo Pfannkuchen,


    nicht heulen, freu dich und kaufe etwas billiger nach. Oder siehst Du in
    den herkömmlichen Märkten zur Zeit günstige Gelegenheiten?
    Nein, also, was spricht gegen ein Investment in Gold, Silber und Platin?
    Die hohen Preise? Dass ich nicht lache, Silber ist, inflationsbereinigt, nahe
    seines 100 jährigen Tiefs, Öl ist, ebenfalls inflationsbereinigt, billiger als in
    den 70er und 80er Jahren, als alle Welt von der Ölkrise sprach.
    Wer sich von solchen Kurskapriolen wie heute beeindrucken lässt, der
    sollte jede Investition in Edelmetalle bleiben lassen. Warum fragst Du?
    Weil diese Leute überhaupt keine Ahnung haben. Die Ausweitung der
    Geldmenge M3, der in vielen Kreisen wenig bis gar keine Bedeutung bei-
    gemessen wird, verheißt nichts Gutes. Die jüngsten Steuerschätzungen
    für Deutschland, katastrophal.
    Überall auf der Welt brennt es. Nichts ist mehr sicher, angefangen bei
    der zahnärztlichen, hausärztlichen oder Altersversorgung. Die Arbeits-
    plätze hängen am seidenen Faden, die Konjunktur und der Konsum in
    den USA sind aufgebläht und abhängig von historisch niedrigen Leitzin-
    sen. Gleichzeitig liegt die reale Inflation in den Staaten nach meiner
    Schätzung (Ölpreis usw.) aktuell bei mehr als 5 %. Im Fernsehen und
    Radio hört man davon nichts; ich nenne so etwas gelinde ausgedrückt
    Manipulation. Was also tun?
    Ja, richtig: Kaufe Dollars, US-Staatsanleihen, am Besten die dreissigjäh-
    rigen, leihe dein Geld Fannie Mae oder Freddie Mac und vergiss nicht,
    shorte Gold und Silber, denn die sind uninteressant und nur für Spinner
    und Hirnamputierte. Und diese lassen sich bekanntlich leicht abzocken...


    Gruss


    Warren

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold.org/img_splash/structure2/top-logo.gif]


    http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/pdf/supply_demand010604.pdf


    PRESS RELEASE


    WGC Reports Gold Consumer Demand Up Q1


    2004 London, 2 June 2004:


    Figures published today by the World Gold Council reveal that consumer demand for gold has improved over the last year. Consumer demand for gold (jewellery and net retail investment) was up by 12% in tonnage terms, and by 30% in dollar terms, in the first quarter of 2004, compared to the somewhat depressed levels of a year earlier. The World Gold Council reports that although complicated by the sharp upward movement in the gold price, consumer demand for gold actually increased in monetary terms during the period since 2001. Commenting on the supply/demand dynamics for the first quarter 2004, James Burton, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council (WGC), said:


    “In the face of a 55% rise in the dollar gold price, historically we would have expected consumer demand to recede due to the sensitivity of Asian and Middle Eastern markets to price volatility.


    Actually this quarter, the money flowing into gold from consumers was 37% up on Q1 2002 in dollar terms, and 25% higher than in Q1 2001, demonstrating a positive underlying trend.” He warns, however, that the global economic and political uncertainty of Q1 2003 depressed the figures of the same period a year ago.


    Zitat

    “It is fair to say that confidence is returning to gold, yet gold continues to face competitive pressures for share of wallet in all of its key markets,” he said.


    Jewellery Demand Among the markets participating in the recovery in jewellery demand for gold, strong year-on-year rises were recorded in India (21%), Vietnam (36%) and Turkey (38%) in tonnage terms. Highlights for the largest international markets are:


    • India and East Asia - Jewellery demand was up in India by 21% in tonnage terms and 33% in local rupee terms on Q1 2003. 


    This is due to favourable (rupee) price trends, a strong economy, and rural consumers (who account for over 60% of demand) benefiting from the after effects of 2003’s generally good monsoon.


    - In China demand rose by 6% in tonnage terms and 23% in price (renminbi) terms. 


    Despite the booming economy, demand for gold jewellery is still somewhat dampened by the overhang from the earlier restrictions and state controls. The strongest demand in the quarter was for 18 carat gold. This follows the WGC-backed ‘K gold’ initiative that promotes 18 carat gold, both yellow and white, in Italian-inspired design. This has been selling well with 60-70% of demand in white gold, demand for which has also been stimulated by the high price of platinum.


    • Middle East and Turkey - The strong oil price provided a background of consumer optimism in Saudi Arabia and UAE, where both countries reported strong year-on-year rises in tonnage terms, with an increase of 11% and 22% respectively. 


    - Jewellery demand showed a 14% recovery in Egypt helped by price trends and by the reduced black market rate for the US dollar. Jewellery imports resumed following the disappearance of the local price discount to international prices and scrap outflows lessened.


    http://www.gold.org


    - Sustained high economic growth coupled with strong promotional spending and heavy media coverage resulted in jewellery demand in Turkey leaping by over a third in tonnage terms from what was already a strong Q1 in 2003.


    • USA - Jewellery demand in Q1 in tonnage terms in the USA was 6% higher than a year earlier (23% in dollar terms).


    The year started well, albeit from a depressed Q1 2003, with a strong Valentine’s Day and this positive trend has continued into Q2. Industrial Demand The first quarter of this year saw a steady rise (8% in tonnage terms and 26% in dollar terms) in industrial demand for gold. The improvement began in mid-2002 as the beneficial technical properties of gold were increasingly employed within new electronic products, and the electronics industry recovered.


    Investment Demand Net retail investment is up 14% year on year in tonnage terms.


    Demand in Japan was particularly strong (up 48%) on the back of continued concern over the economy.


    In Vietnam, demand more than doubled.


    After the heady rise seen in 2003, net institutional investment demand paused for breath in the first quarter. Demand was brisk in January fuelled by the market’s expectation of further price rises as well as growing interest in commodities and in alternative investments generally. However, the fall-back in the gold price caused a natural shift in many investors’ attitudes; as existing profits were taken, new investment dried up.


    Supply


    Overall supply of gold was 7% lower in tonnage terms than one year earlier.


    The first quarter of 2004 saw the announcement of the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA 2)* in March, confirming the importance of gold as a central bank reserve asset.


    Net central bank selling of 96 tonnes was lower than a year earlier with sales by Switzerland, Norway and routine sales by the Philippines, partly offset by an acquisition of 28 tonnes by Argentina.


    Early indications for Q2 2004 Jewellery Initial indications are that demand for jewellery continues to remain robust in key markets and comparisons with Q2 2003 will be favoured by the effect of SARS a year ago.


    Provided there is no sudden price increase, consumer demand should be generally higher in tonnage terms than a year earlier. This is not expected to be the case in India, despite a good May wedding season, because of the exceptional levels of Q2 2003. Initial import numbers for the US suggest that there has been some recovery in demand, whilst the immediate outlook for all the Middle East regions, including Turkey, is for continued good growth off the back of soaring oil prices and strong economies. James Burton added: “While early indications are positive, it is the World Gold Council’s function to play a key role in maintaining momentum, and ensuring that gold jewellery is a desirable and relevant product for women in our key markets. Overall, we anticipate that the results of initiatives with leading retail partners will start to have a positive impact on figures going forward. In addition, our promotional activities in China, which saw the introduction of K-gold in Beijing in the beginning of Q2, and our Italian-designed Gold Expressions range, which has been promoted throughout all of our major markets, will help to build on the early positive results of Q1.”


    http://www.gold.org


    Investment The speculative sell off of gold investment appears generally to have continued, and may have intensified. However, volumes may be positively affected by the increase of tonnes in trust in the WGC-backed Gold Bullion Securities (GBS). When re-launched in the beginning of Q2 in response to market feedback, GBS saw a doubling of net assets under trust to US$660m**. Central Banks In Q2, we will continue to see controlled sales of gold by some central banks within the confines of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. James Burton commented: “Now that the central banks have concluded the second CBGA in a timely fashion, the market is likely to take any further central bank activity in its stride. The renewed agreement has set an official framework and will prove to be a significant anchor for the gold market in the future.”


    Contact:


    For further information, contact Anita Saunders, head of public relations, on 0207 826 4716, or 07769 682373


    or e-mail anita.saunders@gold.org.


    Footnotes:


    * Like its predecessor, Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA 2) will run for five years, from September 2004 to September 2009. The maximum amount of gold that can be sold is higher than CGBA 1 at 2,500 tonnes (compared with 2,000 tonnes) over five years. Interestingly, while the first agreement specified that sales each year would be “around” 400 tonnes, under CBGA 2 sales each year will be a maximum of 500 tonnes. **Correct as of 26 May 2004.

    Anmerkung zum WGC Gold Bericht


    Folgende rot hervorgehobene Aussage ist nachweislich falsch !!!


    Zitat

    Net central bank selling of 96 tonnes was lower than a year earlier with sales by Switzerland, Norway and routine sales by the Philippines, partly offset by an acquisition of 28 tonnes by Argentina.


    Die phillipinische Zentralbank hat schon längstens praktisch alles Gold geswappt (gegen Fiat Money getauscht)!


    Das Gold ist schon lange weg! Ganz einfach nicht mehr physisch vorhanden, an ein Finanzinstitut vermietet, gegen Fiat Money und etwas Zinsen abgegeben, als der Goldpreis noch unter 280.- Dollar pro Unze stand.


    Dieses Gold physisch zurückzuerhalten ist praktisch unmöglich, da werden nun dieses Goldvorräte die nur noch auf dem Papier zum Schein bestehen, halt als "Routine Gold Verkäufe" ausgegeben. Ähnlich wie bei den SNB Verkäufen von gesammthaft 1300 Tonnen Gold geschehen.


    Die Phillipinen können gar keine routine Gold Verkäufe vorgenommen haben. Was das WGC als routine Gold Verkäufe der Phillipinen vermeldet, sind nichts anderes als Ausbuchungen der bereits vor Jahren physisch ins Ausland verschifften Goldbestände.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    Ein Beweis:

    Hallo Warren !!!


    Wir haben das Problem das die Medien und die Finanzwelt auf biegen und
    brechen mannipuiert werde. Dein Kommentar ( Posting ) bzw. deine Antwort hinsichtlich des Forumsmitglied Pfannekuchen ( User ) können schlichter,sachlicher und zutreffender nicht sein. Ich hatte am Sonntag
    ein Schlüsselerlebnis der besonderen Art. In Freundeskreisen, am Sonntag wo 3 Wohlstandsrentner über den Spritpreis jammerten, wurde auch der Vorschlag geäußert, die Ökosteuere zurückzuziehen. Wohlweislich machte ich sie darauf aufmerksam das dann auch Ihre Rente gekürzt werden müsse, da diese ein Bestandteil Ihrer Rente sei. Der Rest war schweigen im Walde. Des weiteren war eine Frau anwesend, die bis vor kurzem noch bei der Dresdner
    Bank beschäftigt war, mit beachtlicher Abfindung nach hause geschickt wurde, jetzt 1 1/2 Jahre arbeitsloß ist u. dann in Rente geschickt wird.
    Sie ist 54 Jahre alt. Nach dieser Info, wurde meine Freundin schlagartig sehr schweigsam, sie ist in der Reisebranche tätig ( 22 Stunden), muß gewaltig um ihren Arbeitsplatz kämpfen, fährt erst mit dem Auto zum Zug, und dann mit der S-Bahn in die City. Sie ist 54 Jahre alt, muß so wie die Dinge stehen noch 13 Jahre arbeiten, und hat mit tötlicher Sicherheit weniger Rente als bewußte Bank-Person. Pech gehabt ???. Ja das hat sie.
    Aber warum ? Blindheit, Ungerechtigkeit, Betrug, Manipulation, Lügengebilde usw. usw.sind die Ursache des Glaubens an die da Oben. Betrogen ist derjenige der an die glaubt, die Lügen, Betrügen, Manipulieren und uns ihre eigene Wahrheit verkaufen wollen, nur um Ihren Arsch und Ihre Macht zu retten. Hier sind wir wieder
    am Anfang der Geschichte die mit Spinner, und Gehirnamputierten begann. Ich komme jetzt zum Ende des Posting. Meinem Nachbarn sagte ich heute Abend, wenn unsere Regierung einen Weg wüßte, eine Wärungsreform ohne Machtverluste zu erleiden, hätten wir sie eher Morgen als Übermorgen. Das wars


    Gruß Jürgen
    Altgermane

    Die Alarmzeichen häufen sich immer mehr!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://globalelements.ft.com/FTCOM/Wrapper/gen_logo_home.gif]


    http://news.ft.com/servlet/Con…944457521&p=1012571727088


    Personal debt in UK reaches 'alarming' levels

    By Anna Fifield, Economics Reporter
    Published: June 2 2004 10:27 | Last Updated: June 2 2004 10:27


    Mortgage lending soared to a new record in April, taking Britons' overall debt to their highest level yet, figures from the Bank of England showed on Wednesday.


    Consumer debt is on the brink of exceeding Britain's annual national income, further increasing the chances the Bank will raise rates again next week to curb the continued run-up in debt.


    Mortgage lending rose by a record £9.8bn in April, accelerating from the £9.2bn increase in March and breaching the previous monthly record of £9.6bn in September last year.


    Coupled with a £1.33bn increase in credit card and other unsecured lending during April, slower than the previous month's £1.65bn rise, total net lending rose by £11.1bn to £985bn during the month.


    Economists called the numbers "alarming".


    Zitat

    "This is yet more evidence that consumers and house buyers have not been deterred by the Bank's gradualist approach so far to tightening monetary policy," said Howard Archer of Global Insight

    .


    The continued increases in debt levels enhanced the case for a second successive quarter-point rate rise when the Bank's monetary policy committee meets next week, Mr Archer said, even though the data related to the month before the May increase.


    At current growth rates, total net lending will breach the £1,000bn mark later this month. This is equivalent to Britain's annual economic output, and is as much as the external debt of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Asia put together.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com




    June 2 - Gold $391.30 down $3.10 - Silver $5.81 down 23 cents


    Will Tomorrow Be The Turnaround Day?


    Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other one thing...Abraham Lincoln


    GO GATA!!!!


    Simply put, if a market is not allowed to go up, it will go down. That is the message The Gold Cartel sent to the hedge funds and other specs inclined to try the long side of this market. Yesterday, oil closed in all-time high ground and gold was shellacked off its high in the US. Today, the dollar was hit fairly hard early and the same bunch of crooks came back in to take gold down sharply after it had rallied $2.50 following the Comex opening. The cabal gold blast in the early going sent out a strong message to the specs: stay long at your own peril. They made it clear that no matter what the outside markets do, they are not going to ALLOW gold to rise for the time being – well, at least for yesterday and today.


    You have to wonder what is going on behind the scenes which has The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets in such a twit? These past two days the manipulation of the gold price has been particularly egregious and blatant. Could there be some derivatives problems brewing?


    Rumor floated this AM from a private news service:


    Follow-up: China rate hike speculation


    We noted rumors of a near-term China rate hike in our 10:26 comment. Two possible catalysts for this speculation are an AFP report today that China's bank regulator ordered a halt on loans to unapproved projects, and a forecast from China's State Information Center, a semi-official agency, that Q2 GDP growth would be a very strong 11.4%. The primary effect of the speculation has been a sell-off in metals including gold and copper, and a related decline in stocks such as AA, PD, and NEM. Oil prices are also near session lows. Industrial stocks such as CAT and DE which have suffered in past China-related declines have held up better.


    -END-


    The gold open interest fell another 5855 contracts to 228,721. The Gold Cartel really stuck it to the specs; first on the long side and then on the short side. For the moment, the specs may be burnt out and fed up with taking on the casino. Many probably figure there are fairer venues to place their bets. However, this huge drop in open interest sets the stage for them to come piling in once gold takes out its 200-day moving average right above $397, followed by a move above $400.


    I’m sure many traders are also loathe to be long gold ahead of the big jobs report Friday. Could the "something wrong" out there be the jobs report will be a major disappointment? Is the Gold Cartel knocking bullion preemptively?


    After a higher opening, silver weakened very fast and led gold down. There were few bids below the market and it tanked very easily. Don’t know what to make of it. Silver really took a hit!


    The silver open interest rose a piddly 195 contracts to 85,891.


    One plus is the silver warehouse stocks are continuing to drop. The new number is 118,379,579 ounces. This is only a beginning, however, if we get below 110 million ounces some bells and whistles will start going off.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    An "Australian" culprit?


    Wednesday, June 2, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.21, PM $5.27, with world gold at $394.30 and $395.40. Right at legal import point. The rupee gained for the sixth day running, and the stock market firmed again, with overseas buyers net positive for the third day.


    Japan was (understandably) not particularly impressed by gold’s Western Hemisphere performance yesterday. On aggregate volume equal to only 14,213 Comex lots (15% above yesterday), the active contract rose 13 yen and open interest edged up by 741 Comex contract equivalent. World gold went out $1.25 above the NY close. Inspection of the Trade House long data suggests that there is some modest accumulation by the general public: modest, however, considering the keen awareness in Japan of the Oil price. NY yesterday traded 56,452; open interest dropped a further 5,855 contracts to 228,721.)


    Gold, of course, began the NY day yesterday with the sort of surge one might reasonably expect given global events and the oil price action over the long weekend. In Standard London’s words:


    "Steady moves up in gold continued through London hours with New York opening firmly at $396.00 bid. Increasing geo-political tension and USD weakness saw aggressive Fund buying return to the market and gold soared to the day’s high bid of $398.70."


    Very rapidly, this move was crushed. Macquarie offers the most coherent explanation:


    "With floor locals and short term specs long, heavy Australian bank selling squashed the rally, sending gold back to almost unchanged on the day into the close."


    a point which most Bullion Bank commentators missed (or ignored) but which is seconded by UBS:


    "Gold opened at the 200 day moving average level of $396 in New York yesterday and…hit a high of about $398.50…spent the rest of the session under pressure, not helped by the decent XAUAUD related selling noted (probably a small producer hedging deal out of Australia) and ended around $396.30, barely a dollar above the lows."


    This "small producer", also noted by UBS as an "aggressive seller" via an Australian bank on Monday (in the absence of London or NY) has successfully prevented gold clearing the c.$396 200 day average for three days now, quite an achievement. Opportunistic traders will certainly have taken note. Gold’s friends will doubt that the order was either Australian or a producer.


    Those interested in the likely disposition of the enhanced oil revenues accruing to parties in unfashionable areas of the world would do well to consider the implications of


    http://www.counterpunch.org/cassel05292004.html


    From this it appears that Washington, by the utilization of "National Security Letters" is not only able to force an Internet Service Provider "to provide passwords and identifying information that will allow the government to target people….The same mechanism of NSLs is used to obtain information from librarians, health care providers, and business records of individuals and entities. The party from whom the government demands information is forbidden from telling the client that the FBI is being provided information…"


    such that the plaintiffs in an ACLU lawsuit protesting this have been banned from disclosing their identities. The Founding Fathers would have immediately recognized this style of government: as stemming from Czarist Russia. Any one whose funds are accessible via a computer linked to the "World Wide Web" has something to think about.


    JB

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The euro followed gold down. Gold began to break after the euro rose around 80 points. It was not until gold tanked that the euro followed suit, closing at 122.18, down .40. The dollar was flat.


    Kuwait came out saying oil would drop $6 to $8 per barrel in the weeks to come and crude was hit hard, falling $2.37 per barrel.


    The DOW gained 60 to 10,263, while the DOG fell 2 to 1988.


    A highly regarded money manager receives market input and analysis from many sources. He says so far Mike Bolser has nailed the stock market better than any of these Pros.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $3.5 Billion in repos today June 2nd 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to dip to $36.95 Billion. The repo pool's 30-day ma trend is maintained in an up slope adding support in a gradual manner so as to keep the DOW futures fed and happy.


    Recall that the daily add of repos is carefully structured in order to confuse anyone attempting to obtain useful trend information. Indeed, I have found after years of observation that the Fed never exposes its main control metric to direct public view. They always shield the indexes by at least three levels of opacity. Only after going to a 30-day moving average of the repo pool did the true nature of its support activity become visible. First it was necessary to aggregate the pool size and this required a running total including expirations. Then it was necessary to add the DOW to the chart in order to search for correlations, Finally it was necessary to add moving averages to both the repo pool AND the DOW before the relationship could be seen. This appears to be the chart (Or one like it) used by the Fed itself.


    Interventional Analysis


    What I do is radically different from what is known as "Technical Analysis" or TA. Understanding how government intervenes in free markets to obtain its goals requires special computer techniques such as multi-phasic regression, the application of fraud detection algorithms, basic statistical science and cryptanalysis.


    Conventional TA is flawed in that it uses plainly visible price and volume indicators, draws lines from peak to peak and looks only backwards assuming that the controlling forces will always remain static. The assumptions made in TA are not valid in a manipulated environment of "national security" finance. They are valid in a free market.


    In proving COMEX gold preemptive selling, I used a simple but powerful premise, historical probabilities. By recording 15 years of daily COMEX data it became clear that extreme (4 standard deviation) events correlated with other gold cartel happenings and this analysis was used in Howe v. BIS.


    Current gold interventional changes


    Last week I alerted readers to a potential change in one of my metrics. It has continued through Tuesday of this week and intensified to the point where I can safely say that the Fed has made a significant alteration to its gold market capping methodology. The DIVG 200-day ma has moved from a linear 9% upslope towards a flat phase. The leveling off move is un-mistakable and signals the Fed is attempting to more strongly defend a specific DIVG level, possibly DIVG=343 to 345.


    Since the DIVG is the product of the PM Fix and the major currency dollar index (MCDI), a flat DIVG 200-day ma means that gold and the MCDI will move exactly in opposite directions AND by the same magnitudes. In other words, instead of gold gaining against the dollar it will stay even for the duration of this new attempted defense level.


    The last time the Fed tried this they failed as we can clearly see by examining the yellow 200-day ma trace. They defended three times and then gave up, retreating to the higher level of today. They defended the DIVG level of 323, the value prevalent at the last dollar/euro parity, Dec 5, 2002. We will have to wait for about ten days to have the full tracing but we can expect more hammering on the COMEX and LBMA right around $400 gold and MCDI = 87.


    Why now?


    One should not waste too much energy guessing why the Fed is acting now to recap the DIVG 200-day ma. If you must ask, the simplest answer is usually correct. They are in deep trouble with other strategic commodities and this is the likely correct answer. In any case, the pressure on them is up and the probability of an accident is much higher today than it was two weeks ago.


    Mike


    http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/interventional_analysis


    The latest from Mr. Fed:


    Rate hike pace likely to be measured - Greenspan


    WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said low inflation and underutilized resources meant the Fed could likely raise interest rates at a measured pace, according to a letter released on Wednesday.


    "The current backdrop of low inflation and underutilized resources suggests that the transition to a more neutral policy stance can be undertaken at a pace that is likely to be measured," Greenspan said in a May 14 letter to Democratic Sen.
    Paul Sarbanes of Maryland.


    Greenspan also said in the letter it would be inappropriate to judge the likely pace of Fed rates hikes on the basis of past episodes. –END-


    From The King Report last evening:


    Remember when Bush’s chief economic adviser, Larry Lindsay, was fired for stating the cost of an Iraq incursion would be about $200B? Bushies said the cost would be $60B. The cost is already $119B and it’s estimated to be $170B+ by the end of 2005. The administration says the US will be out by 2006. Most analysts estimate the total cost will be $300B to $500B. Yet intractabulls and shills still base their forecasts on Bush administration data and estimates. At one time it would’ve been careers.


    We are once again disgusted at the duplicitous headlines over the ISM and other ‘opinion surveys’. This headline appeared yesterday on Reuters: "U.S. manufacturing chugged to a full year of expansion in May, pushing factory hiring to its highest in 31 years, a survey released on Tuesday showed." The reality is manufacturing employment is lower today than it was a year ago; and it’s substantially lower than 1973. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm


    For the past several weeks we have been ‘banging the table’ that despite all the cant about the Fed hiking rates Easy Al has gone to turbo-charge on the monetary aggregates. Now, more analysts are recognizing that Easy Al is back doing his one trick – creating massive amounts of credit. The question is why?


    When Richard Russell speaks, one should listen: "What in hell is the Fed doing, and why?" The Greenspan Fed has boomed the broad M-3 money supply by $155 billion over the last four weeks (up a huge $46.8 billion in the most recent week). At this rate, M-3 is climbing at a $2 trillion annualized rate (a mind-blowing annualized growth rate of just over 22 percent!).


    What is the Fed thinking? They’re acting as if we’re facing some kind of monster crisis, a crisis that will require this incredible increase in liquidity. Does the Fed know something that we don’t know? Is there some great danger looming just over the horizon? Or is the massive increase in liquidity simply Greenspan’s way of paying President Bush back for reappointing him to another four years as Fed chief?" http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf


    Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports planned job cuts increased 1.6% to 73,368 in May compared with 72,184 in April. They are 6.9% higher than last May. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in planned job cuts and the first y/y increase since December. New era ‘boom times’ sure have some strange features.


    -END-


    Gold demand input:


    June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Jill Leyland, senior economic adviser at the World Gold Council, talks with Bloomberg's Jeremy Naylor in London about world gold demand, sales of gold by central banks and the outlook for second-quarter demand for gold jewelry. The World Gold Council said gold demand rose 11 percent in the first quarter.


    On silver:
    Dear Bill,
    Thanks again for putting on that Mahendra party. It was a great time.


    I was re-reading the CFTC response again and I noticed something else that's bullish for silver. The CFTC admits that silver inventories are only 27.5 weeks, down from 2.5 years in 1989, and the stockpiles continue to decrease as we have a supply deficit. If the government numbers are right, and we deplete the stockpiles at the current rate, we would be out of silver in less than 4 years! I hadn't noticed anyone else make this point before, but it's great for our camp in the long run. Today was not a good day for silver, as you know.


    Jennifer Barry
    Discount Silver Club



    The way it is:


    Bill,
    What I feel is a real injustice in this country is that the privileged few enjoy going outside of the law with impunity. The tragedy is that innocent investors have lost a tremendous amount of money believing that investing in gold is fair and honest. While the government comes down hard on the Marthas, they look the other way when the privilege few abrogate the law.


    My supposition for the criminality is that during the era of Reagan, the robber barons were given a green light to loot the world. It backfired on them when they grabbed such a big handful of loot from the world's jar; their hand got stuck in the neck of the jar and threatened the bankruptcy of the entire world. In order to prevent this, the central banks used every approach they could muster to bail out the robber barons. Unfortunately the gold investors were one of their myriad victims. Evils such as this are the reason I believe we don't have a freedom democracy. One law of reality is that a fraud will become pregnant with baby frauds that threaten to become five hundred pound gorillas. Today there is big trouble in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, increase in oil price and the concomitant increase in the cost of living, threat of the interest rate increase and my last look the price of gold is down about six dollars and thirty cents. The reason for this is they are putting their finger in the hole of the stonewall of gold to prevent a deluge.


    ***


    The gold shares continued to set back, digesting gains after their previous run up. The XAU lost .56 to 87.82 and the HUI fell 2.32, down 193.93. Both closed well off their lows.


    The best news (only good news) of the day:


    Dear Bill,

    TODAYS DOWNWARD TREND I WAS EXPECTING TOMORROW BUT HEPPENED TODAY, SO BIG TURN AROUND IN METAL FINALLY WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY... WATCH THATS WHAT PLANETS ARE INDICATING ME...
    NOW WE ARE READY AND AFTER DOWNWARD TREND OF 40 DAYS NOW I AM PREDICTIONG MAJOR RISE IN GOLD AND FINALLY IT WILL CROSS 400 MARK DURING NEXT WEEK.


    THANKS & GOD BLESS

    MAHENDRA


    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    After a brief exchange, Mahendra came back with:


    Dear Bill,

    It is good thing that metal came down today, it is a great positive sign, I know nobody will understand me but this is the fact.


    NOW TELL YOUR GOLD COMMUNITY TO GET READY, FASTEN SEATBELT, GOLD BELOW $400 WILL BE HISTORY SOON IN FEW DAYS.

    I AM WITH YOU.

    THANKS & GOD BLESS

    MAHENDRA

    http://www.mahendraprophecy.com


    Don’t forget to check out Mahendra’s subscription offer at his site.


    Let us hope Mahendra is right. Maybe he will be, maybe not. For sure, no equivocation on his part and his notes picked up my spirits. These past two days, with such high expectations in the early goings, have felt like being in the ring with Mohammed Ali.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    Appendix


    To: Chairman and Board of CFTC


    I am trying to understand you and your Board’s reasoning regarding the casual inattention by COMEX to the blatant market manipulation of silver and gold through naked short sales. You recently tried to justify your regulatory inactivity in a letter to a inquiring congressman. I read it and was astounded by its contents. In light of this type of bad news we see daily in the newspapers, I do not see how you could possibly justify no evidence of illegal intervention or market manipulation? News like this, even in small doses, has always caused markets in precious metals to rise as investors seek safety.


    Let’s just look at a few of this last week’s news items which logically should have driven the prices of gold and silver up. Any small combination of them should have caused the market in precious metals to rise significantly, as they have done historically over the centuries with lesser combinations of disturbing news. However, precious metals prices decreased or remained almost static during this period. How could this be true without manipulation or illegal market intervention and huge naked short selling?


    Reflect on these news items published just this last week:


    1.The Attorney General warns us about al Qeida terrorist strikes within the US this summer.
    2.The number of attacks on civilians and soldiers in Iraq has rapidly accelerated.
    3.Orders for durable goods in the US fell 2.1%
    4.Sales of new houses fell 11.8%, the biggest drop in a decade.
    5.30 year mortgage rates rose almost 1%.
    6.US crude oil stocks fell by 700,000 bbls.
    7.al Qeida terrorists attack and kill 20 inside Saudi Arabia.
    8.Silver warehouse stocks fell 750,000 ounces in the last 2 days.
    9.The Fed increased M3 money supplies by $156 Billion over the last 4 weeks.
    10.The dollar fell against the Euro, New Zealand $ and Australian $.
    11.Bianco reports institutional bond managers more bearish than they have been in the last 15 years.
    12.Bond dealers are short the bond market for the first time in 15 years and bonds are at multi-generational lows.
    13.There is a 27 trillion dollar overhang of interest rate derivatives and a 41 billion dollar overhang of gold derivatives in one single trading house – JP Morgan to be exact.
    14.The EU is lobbying for the oil trade being switched from dollars to a basket of currencies.
    15.There is increasing talk on the financial pages questioning the accuracy of the government published economic data.
    16.The General Accounting Office stated that published government financial statistics may not be reliable.
    17.The Federal Reserve Band has not produced an audited statement since 9/11/01.
    18.The Federal Government has not been able to balance their books for the past 7 years and has published data reflecting at least 3.3 trillion dollars of undocumented adjustments.
    19.The Agriculture Department’s All Farm Products Indicator for May rose 7% over April’s number and is at the highest level since 1910.


    And that is just a smattering of one weeks news items.


    In the face of all this news, gold and silver prices do not react with a rise. If fact, they decrease. The 8 large COMEX traders continue to manipulate silver using naked short selling in such volumes that it exceeds 7 times world mine production and is many times greater than all discernible world inventories. And you, as our market regulators, do nothing and even look the other way to please those that injure the free market.


    I find the facts and conclusions stated in your letter to be disingenuous, unrealistic, and unwarranted, if not outright fabrications. One day soon, your statements and inaction will come back to haunt both you and the country and you will have to answer to your perfidious inattention to your sworn duties and responsibilities as regulators. Your comeuppance will be rewarding to watch but it will be sad to see the effects your blind inactivity will have on the country.


    Please get real – there may still be time to head off the problem. Give us back the free market.


    Do something to reflect honor on your sworn duty! Or resign and let someone else with integrity do so.


    Walter Ryan


    waltryan@earthlink.net

    der brave soldat schwejk meldet ganz gehorsamst, daß,
    wenn jemand etwas "verkauft", was ihm nicht gehört, der ein betrüger ist;


    daß, wenn ein treuhänder etwas "verleiht" - und das noch im wissen, es nicht mehr in gleicher güte zurückerhalten kann, dafür aber noch kassiert - ohne wissen des treugebers, er untreue begeht;


    daß, wenn kohlhausen und eichel den koch-weser herholen, damit der betrug und untreue zur "spielregel" freier marktwirtschaft macht, sie dann verbrecher sind;


    daß niemand aber sagen darf, daß es sich um verbrechen handelt, weil daß wieder "antisemitismus" wäre.


    na, ja, so sind kohlhausen und eichel wenigstens schlau, meldet schwejk auch noch gehorsamst. mit otto schulze hätte es aus einsichtigen gründen ja schließlich nicht geklappt.

    Aus "BUSINESS DAY" vom 3.6.2004:


    Russian tycoon circling Gold Fields.


    By John Helmer


    MOSCOW - Vladimir Potanin, the controlling shareholder of Norilsk Nickel, may have begun a bid to take over Gold Fields.
    Potanin may have bought new shares to add to the 20% stake which he acquired on March 29 through Norilsk Nickel and its London affiliate, Norimet.
    The apparent share-buying move was disclosed last week by a Moscow mining industry source, but Gold Fields and market sources agree that it would be a long shot for the Potanin group to be buying Gold Fields shares just yet.
    They also agree that it would be very hard to detect if they are.
    A market source told Business Day the average daily value of Gold Fields trading in New York over the past year has been about $25m.
    The source says if Norilsk Nickel, its holding company Interros, Potanin or a related party were buying the shares without moving the market, they would probably be aiming at a buy rate of between 10% and 15% of that value per day. That totals a maximum daily acquisition of about $4m.
    Buying at that rate to build up the Russian stake to 30% of Gold Fields would take between three and four months, which is not impossible, the source says.
    "But you would have to file with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) every few days that another 1% was accumulated."
    Gold Fields, for its part, said earlier this week it was unaware of any additional purchase of its shares by Norilsk Nickel other than the 20% purchased from Anglo American.
    Potanin's spokeswoman Nina Dementsova was evasive when asked to confirm or deny whether Potanin, Interros or related parties have been buying Gold Fields shares. "Interros has never purchased any shares of Gold Fields," she said.
    Sergei Polikarpov, investment relations spokesman for Norilsk Nickel, refused to respond to any questions.
    The text of the March 29 2004 purchase agreement was attached to a filing by Norilsk Nickel unit Norimet to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington on April 7. Also attached was the text of the borrowing agreement between Norilsk Nickel and Citibank, dated March 30 2004. These funds, plus $316m in Norilsk Nickel's cash, were used to fund Norimet's purchase of the Gold Fields stake from Anglo American for $1,16bn.
    The deal is the largest Russian corporate purchase of an offshore asset. It is the largest Russian investment in a South African asset.
    The SEC disclosures represent the first time major Russian corporate transactions have been exposed to public scrutiny.
    Norilsk Nickel is the world's leading producer and exporter of nickel and palladium; it also sells large volumes of copper, gold, and cobalt. It is the principal global rival to SA's platinum producers.
    The group said yesterday that 2003 profit rose 47% as it mined more metals amid rising world prices. Net income rose to $861m last year, from $584m in 2002, under international accounting standards, the company said in an e-mailed statement. Sales rose 68% to $5,2bn.
    "The main reasons for the increase in sales were bigger export volumes, as well as higher average prices for base metals, gold and platinum group metals except palladium," Norilsk said.
    Norilsk executives said again in London last week they would not remain a passive portfolio investor in Gold Fields. Several plans were under discussion with Gold Fields executives, when CEO Ian Cockerill visited Moscow at the end of April.


    Business Day
    ?(

    silversurfer,


    schön wäre es ja. Wir haben ja gesehen, wie schnell der Preis bei Silber innerhalb weniger Wochen steigen kann (okay, und wieder fallen kann... :( )

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

    Kuddel


    Na dann dürften wir uns ja sehr bald auf höhere Gold Fields Aktien Preise einrichten, fals der Vladimir Potanin von der russischen Norilsk wirklich GFI übernehmen will.


    Würde ja für ihn auch viel Sinn machen, wenn es denn wahr wäre.
    Er hat seine vernickelten Rubel vor dem russischen Fiskus, und anderer Begierden in Sicherheit gebracht, und gleichzeitig hätte er ein in Bezug auf zu erwartende weit höhere Gold Preise, ein Rendite trächtiges, ungehedgtes, wertsteigerndes Investment erster Güte zur Hand.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

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    http://www.busrep.co.za/index.…Id=564&fArticleId=2097973


    Thursday 3rd June


    Bullion looks bullish as US deficit threatens stability

    June 2, 2004


    By Sandy McGregor


    In the face of uncertainty in world markets, many investors are buying gold as a store of value, as reflected in its rising price.


    In its long history, gold has gone from being a commodity used to make jewellery to a currency - and then, when the gold backing of currencies was removed, it reverted largely to a commodity. Now it is back in a monetary role, as confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge accumulated deficit.


    Before 1971 gold was central to the international monetary system. The dollar was exchangeable into gold and central banks held a large proportion of their foreign reserves in bullion
    "Gold's price rise reflects concerns about the future of the existing economic order"
    .
    This system collapsed because investors came to distrust the dollar. Faced with the prospect of not being able to meet the demand for gold, central banks demonetised the metal.


    This did not stop the gold price from reaching very high levels during the 1970s, rising to a peak of over $800 an ounce in 1980.


    In the early 1980s a new economic paradigm developed. Monetary policy was conducted more prudently and markets operated more freely. Consequently, inflation was largely eliminated, restoring trust in currencies.


    Gold reverted to being purely a commodity consumed mainly in jewellery. Central banks, having a big inventory of gold as a legacy of the fixed exchange rate regime, became major sellers.


    By 1999 the price was so low it became impossible to develop new gold mines profitably. Predictably, the market started to correct this mispricing.


    Under the Washington agreement, European central banks agreed to co-ordinate their sales and gold has been on an upward trend ever since.

    Over the past year a renewed interest in gold as a store of value and as a hedge against financial instability has changed the character of the gold market.


    No longer driven by the demand for jewellery, the gold price is determined by speculators and investors who are increasingly worried about the dollar.


    The similarities to the early 1970s are uncanny: poorly conducted monetary policy, a crisis in the Middle East, an American president who does not command confidence outside the US and the emergence of a new economic power in Asia.


    Confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the US's huge current account deficit. The US has had an adverse balance of payments for the past 22 years, which it has been able to finance by attracting investment funds from the rest of the world.


    This is both because the deficit is now so large and the focus of private sector investment is increasingly on Asia.


    If markets operated freely, this would not be a problem.


    Asian currencies would rise to a level that restored equilibrium of trade and capital flows. This is not happening because Asian central banks have intervened massively to keep their currencies pegged to the dollar.


    Where will it end? The simple answer is that no one knows. The scale of the imbalance between the US and the rest of the world is huge and the longer intervention prevents adjustments, the greater the dislocation will be when the inevitable correction occurs.


    In the face of these uncertainties, some people are again buying gold as a store of value. They do not know what will happen but sense great dangers ahead.


    Some remember that it took more than a decade to correct the policy mistakes of the 1960s.


    The rising price of gold reflects increasing concerns about the future of the existing economic order.




    Sandy McGregor is a director at Allan Gray

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    http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1606&pv=1


    June 03, 2004


    If Only.........Gold, Silver!!!


    by Richard Greene


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