Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Deutsche Bank rät zu asiatischen Aktien und Rohstoffen


    Anlegeexperten erwarten weiter hohe Volatilität
    von Jan Dams


    Frankfurt/Main - Die Deutsche Bank empfiehlt Privatanlegern, ihr Geld für die kommenden zwölf Monate verstärkt in asiatische Aktien sowie in Rohstoffinvestments anzulegen. "In diesen Märkten bieten sich im zweiten Halbjahr die attraktivsten Möglichkeiten für private Investoren", sagte Klaus Martini, der beim größten deutschen Kreditinstitut für die Anlagestrategie der Privatkundschaft zuständig ist. Auch wenn sich das Wachstum in China verlangsame, bleibe das Land eine Konjunkturlokomotive.



    Bei Rohstoffen sollten Chancen genutzt werden, rät Martini. "Das Produktionswachstum wird nicht mit der steigenden Nachfrage Schritt halten können." Die Preise für Gold und andere Edelmetalle dürften weiter steigen. Auch Kupfer, Aluminium, Nickel und Zins könnten sich verteuern.



    Weniger rosig sind die Aussichten für die Anleihemärkte in den USA und Europa. "Jetzt beginnt die Saison der Zinsanhebungen", sagte Martini. Die Kurse der Rentenpapiere dürften damit unter Druck geraten. "Bei langen Laufzeiten und Dollar-Anleihen wäre ich vorsichtig." Er erwarte eine Phase Seitwärtsbewegung bei hoher Volatilität, eher sich die Kursverluste mit verringertem Tempo fortsetzten." In den USA aber könnten vor allem die Renditen von Staatsanleihen kräftig sinken.



    Zurückhaltend schätzte er die Entwicklung der Aktienmärkte in Europa und den USA ein. Die Börsen würden unter anderem durch die politische Unsicherheit im Irak und auch Terrorängste geprägt "Wir erwarten für die nächsten ein bis zwei Jahre keine großartigen Aktienmärkte", sagte Martini. Die Kursteigerungen schätzt er auf bis zu zehn Prozent. Der Dax könnte auf bis zu 4500 Punkte steigen. Insgesamt sind Aktien im Euro-Raum aus seiner Sicht derzeit aber recht niedrig bewertet. Mittlerweile greife die Restrukturierung bei den Unternehmen. Auch die Arbeitsmärkte würden liberalisiert, was sich positiv auf die Wirtschaft auswirke. Das gelte auch für Deutschland. "Die Agenda 2010 der Bundesregierung geht völlig in die richtige Richtung", sagt Martini. Insgesamt rät er zu einer vorsichtigen Anlagepolitik bei Aktien. Derzeit seien Papiere mit hoher Bilanzqualität und Dividendenrendite gesucht.



    Größere Risiken sieht er dagegen bei amerikanischen Aktien. Steigende Zinsen dürften die Konsumausgaben bremsen und damit auch die Entwicklung der amerikanischen Wirtschaft, zumal die Privathaushalte in den USA ohnehin schon durch ihre hohe Verschuldung belastet seien.



    Insgesamt rät die Deutsche Bank Aktien in den USA mit einem Anteil von sieben Prozent am Gesamtportfolio unterzugewichten. Ähnlich niedrig ist nur noch die empfohlene Liquidität. Der Anteil europäischer Unternehmenspapiere hätte bei 23 Prozent zu liegen, Asien bei 13 Prozent. In alternative Investments wie Rohstoffe und Hedgefonds sollten sie derzeit rund 15 Prozent ihres Kapitals investieren. Den größten Teil, mit rund 35 Prozent sollten sie in europäische Anleihen stecken, allerdings mit kurzer Laufzeit zwischen drei und 3,5 Jahren.



    Artikel erschienen am 30. Juni 2004


    Quelle: http://www.welt.de

    Spinat liefert Strom für Laptops


    Spinat liefert nicht nur Vitamine und Nährstoffe. Mit der grünen Blattpflanze lassen sich auch elektrische Geräte betreiben. Das fanden amerikanische Forscher vom Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) bei Boston heraus. Ein Team um den Forscher Marco Baldo isolierte Proteine aus Spinat, die zur Photosynthese fähig sind, und legte sie zwischen zwei Schichten leitfähigen Materials. Sobald Licht darauf fiel, wurde elektrischer Strom erzeugt, wie die Forscher jetzt in der Fachzeitschrift „Nano Letters“ (Band 4, Seite 1079-1083) berichten.


    Die Proteine stammen aus den Chloroplasten der Spinatblätter, das sind winzige Strukturen, mit denen die Pflanzen Licht in Energie umwandeln. Bei dieser Reaktion beginnen die Elektronen zu wandern und transportieren dabei elektrische Ladung. Die aus Spinat isolierten Proteine wurden auf einen Film aus Gold gelegt, auf den dünnes, transparentes Metall und schließlich organisches leitfähiges Material geschichtet wurde.


    Dieser Prototyp war in der Lage, bis zu 21 Tage lang Strom zu erzeugen. Die Forscher arbeiten daran, die Nutzungszeit zu verlängern. Zudem soll der Wirkungsgrad verbessert werden. Derzeit werden zwölf Prozent der aufgenommenen Lichtenergie in Elektrizität umgewandelt. Mit dem angestrebten Wert von 20 Prozent wäre der Wirkungsgrad von herkömmlichen Solarzellen aus Silizium erreicht. Die Forscher hoffen, mit der grünen Energie später beispielsweise Laptops mit Strom versorgen zu können. pja
    www.tagesspiegel.de

    Aufwärtstrend des Euro zum US-Dollar hängt am seidenen Faden


    Technik-Tipp


    von Klaus Deppermann


    Frankfurt/Main - Der Euro befindet sich aus charttechnischer Sicht immer noch in einem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend, der inzwischen mehr als zwei Jahre anhält. Die Aufwärtstrendlinie befindet sich derzeit bei etwa 1,19 US-Dollar/Euro und damit nur knapp unterhalb des gegenwärtigen Niveaus (siehe Grafik). Zusätzliche Bedeutung gewinnt dieses Niveau noch dadurch, dass sich die 200-Tage-Linie mit 1,21 US-Dollar/Euro ganz in der Nähe davon befindet. Die Tatsache, dass sich der Euro sich in den vergangenen Wochen immer weniger von seiner Aufwärtstrendlinie beziehungsweise 200-Tage-Linie entfernen konnte, muss als Zeichen der Schwäche und mangelnder Auftriebskraft gewertet werden.
    Besonders enttäuschend ist diese Entwicklung vor dem Hintergrund der Kaufsignale, die im Mai von einigen Stimmungsindikatoren abgeben worden sind. Ein Unterschreiten der Aufwärtstrendlinie bei 1,19 US-Dollar/Euro und noch mehr ein Unterschreiten der Unterstützung bei 1,18 US-Dollar/Euro würden wir als deutliches Zeichen einer Trendwende ansehen. Da diese Marken noch nicht unterschritten worden sind, gehen wir aber zunächst noch eher von steigenden Notierungen in den kommenden Wochen aus.
    Zu den Gründen hierfür gehören die nach wie vor gültigen Kaufsignale der Stimmungsindikatoren. Ein Versagen derart klarer Kaufsignale ist in der Regel nur in einem langfristigen Abwärtstrend zu befürchten. Unterstützung ergibt sich für den Euro auch aus den technischen Indikatoren, die wir für den Goldpreis untersuchen. Das Edelmetall wird unseres Erachtens seinen Aufwärtstrend weiter fortsetzen. Wir rechnen sogar damit, dass langfristig der größte Teil des Anstiegs noch bevorsteht. Auf Grund der sehr engen Korrelation beider Märkte ist eine divergente Entwicklung über einen längeren Zeitraum nicht zu erwarten. Kurzfristige Divergenzen treten allerdings immer wieder auf. Meistens befindet sich das Gold dabei in der Rolle des Vorläufermarktes. Beide Märkte könnten in den nächsten Wochen einer weiteren Belastungsprobe in Form von steigenden Zinsen ausgesetzt sein. Eine Gefährdung des langfristigen Aufwärtstrends bei Gold bestünde dann, wenn die Unterstützung bei 370 US-Dollar nachhaltig unterschritten würde.
    Fazit: Solange der Euro sich oberhalb der Marke von 1,19 (beziehungsweise 1,18) US-Dollar/Euro befindet, gehen wir von einer Fortsetzung des Aufwärtstrends aus.


    Klaus Deppermann ist technischer Analyst im Private Banking der ING BHF-Bank
    Artikel erschienen am 30. Juni 2004
    ----------------------------------------------------


    Langsam wagen sich die Bank-Analysten aus den 'Löchern'.
    Kuddel.

    June 30 - Gold $392.80 up 70 cents – Silver $5.78 down 7 cents


    What A Farce! The Cabal Is Beyond Contempt!


    Mental toughness is many things. It is humility because it behooves all of us to remember that simplicity is the sign of greatness and meekness is the sign of true strength. Mental toughness is spartanism with qualities of sacrifice, self-denial, dedication. It is fearlessness, and it is love...Vince Lombardi


    GO GATA!!!!


    Gold surged right after the bell, rallying close to $5 and that was it for the day as its highs were made within the first hour – as usual. This has become truly nauseating. But, not nauseating enough for the arrogant Orwellians, which slammed gold and silver in the last half hour and going into the Fed announcement.


    One only need to look at the action of the other financial markets to realize what a farce The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets have made of the bullion market. Yesterday, the inane pundits commented that gold collapsed because of fears of sharply higher interest rates in the future. These fears were supposedly exacerbated by the latest consumer confidence number. Yet, ??? The bond market rallied over a half a point on that news and before today’s Fed announcement it rallied almost a full point.


    The euro was clobbered for a full point yesterday, yet it made most of those gains back today and was up .85 going into the Fed announcement. Gold??? It was held in check, well below $400 and by day’s end was back near yesterday’s battered close, which is exactly what The Gold Cartel had in mind. That there could still be even one halfwit out there who doesn’t see how rigged the gold market is confounds me and is beyond my comprehension.


    There are many smart market observers that continue to make the mistake that gold is only about the dollar. Horse Manure! If that were the case, gold would not have been punished today going into the so-called important Fed announcement.


    Yes, a weakening dollar is very gold supportive, however, it is a distant second in terms of what determines the gold price. The key to the gold market is the physical market overpowering the crooks who continue to do all they can to keep the price artificially low to suit their own needs. Until The Gold Cartel is beaten, gold won’t take out $430 and won’t explode. The good news is that could come at any time.


    I would like to thank The Gold Cartel for making yesterday’s MIDAS commentary look good and for making their recent manipulation so blatant. The more they are found out, the quicker this nonsense will end.


    Two comments from the last MIDAS stick in my craw:


    1. There are three basic reasons to continue to hammer home the details of the gold price manipulation scheme:


    *This is what the gold market is all about. The rest of the gold goings-on are of a secondary nature and a lot of noise.
    2. "What is good for the goose is not good for the gander. Gold went up $8 on Thursday and was sent right back down. Gold went down $8+ today. Will it go right back up $8+? Not a chance!"


    ***


    Today’s mauling of gold and silver late in the day, while the euro maintained its strength was a perfect example of The Gold Cartel in action. And gold certainly did not have "a chance" of gaining its losses back today, even though that was not the case with the euro. The early big gold pop surprised me. Unfortunately, I felt the creeps would never let it stand on a day like this and they didn’t.


    Note the divergence between the euro and gold the past two days:


    September euro
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/94


    August gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84


    The euro closed up 111 at 121.77 (more than it lost yesterday) and the dollar closed down .70 at 89 (more than it gained yesterday).


    Moore Capital, the huge New York hedge fund closely allied to The Gold Cartel, was a late seller on the Comex.


    The mistake I made was working the last two days. Mahendra said they would be lousy ones for gold. He nailed it.


    The gold open interest fell 3234 contracts to 226,773.


    To give you an idea of how blatant the late day gold price manipulation was this afternoon, one only need look at the trading volume numbers provided by John Brimelow. Going into the last half hour of trading, the volume was 29,000. During the last half hour it increased to 38,000, or a 31% jump in volume in last 1/10th of the trading day. All that to make sure gold was trashed going into the Fed meeting.


    The silver open interest fell 2375 contracts to 90,221.


    Silver dropped 20 cents out of nowhere in the last half hour for no apparent reason. It seems the cabal can jerk silver around at will. Yet the jig could be up VERY soon.


    BELLS AND WHISTLES TIME; perhaps my silver hunch mentioned yesterday will be correct?
    21,354,738 ounces of silver in the Comex warehouses were switched from the eligible category into the registered category. Here is a heads-up on that score:


    Bill,
    A massive inter-category move in the COMEX warehouse silver stocks today.


    A total of 21,354,738oz, equivalent to 4,269 contracts worth has been transferred from the Eligible (not for sale) to the Registered (for sale) category.


    Note that the NET change in the total stock is virtually zero, this is only an adjustment. It has the effect of increasing the Registered category to 65,605,073oz (13,121 contracts equivalent) which is a rise of 48.23% over yesterday. The effect on the Eligible category is that it falls to 52,764,168oz (10,553 contracts equivalent) which is a contraction of 28.81%. The percentage is lower because there was more metal in the Eligible category to start with.


    What does it all mean? Could it be that the move from 'Not For Sale' to 'For Sale' means that it has been sold and therefore it must be delivered?


    Might it leave the warehouses totally? If it did, what would be the effect of a drawdown of over 20m oz?


    Well for starters, there'd be less than 100m oz left which is less than 20,000 contracts.


    The next few days should be interesting...
    Regards,
    Tim Leleux (aka The Priest)
    North Yorkshire, England


    Something’s up, that is for sure Tim. I suspect this silver will be shipped out in the coming weeks, perhaps to China? Some serious silver fireworks could be right around the corner!


    The CRB broke below its 200-day moving average and then reversed to close above it at 265.94, down another 1.35.

    The John Brimelow Report


    Thanks, India; No thanks to CFTC


    Wednesday, June 30, 2004


    Indian ex duty premiums: AM $7.43, PM $5.83, with world gold at $392.20 and $394.40. Lavish, and ample for legal imports. Notwithstanding the season, the world’s largest gold importer is clearly an active buyer in the low $390s.


    According to both Mitsui and Mitsubishi, who ought to be in a position to know, the Japanese public was a strong buyer today on TOCOM, with gold opening 20 yen lower. This is not entirely clear from the trading data. Volume did jump 67% to the equivalent of 32,927 Comex lots, but open interest fell 1,767 Comex equivalent to equal 102,563 Comex contracts. The active contract closed down 16 yen; world gold was 5c higher than the NY close. Possibly foreign traders were closing shorts on TOCOM. (NY yesterday traded 63,650 lots with open interest dropping 3,234 to 226,773 contracts.)


    Yesterday, as Mitsui-Sydney puts it,


    "Gold was absolutely thumped over night, if it was teamed up with the currencies, it was the worst performer…sub $395 Fund selling was seen"


    A thought echoed by HSBC


    "..a 1c move in the euro is usually consistent with a USD3/oz move in the gold price – the sharper move lower in gold being attributable to technically-orientated fund selling."


    UBS was probably right in suggesting this morning:


    "The market feels short as speculators are looking for more…"


    More fund selling has been noted today. Being the quarter end militates against a sharp recovery too.


    Nevertheless, the response of the physical market in the low $390s, as anticipated, suggest the several technically-oriented observers calling for further falls will be frustrated.


    There remains the curious CFTC saga. HSBC summarises:


    "According to the revisions, the total net long speculative position at the close of trading last Tuesday was 7.1Moz, up from 5.7Moz the previous week. Clearly this is less bullish than the previous data, which showed a fall in the net long position to 5.4Moz due to a sharp increase in non-reportable short positions (now revised away). However, even at this level the net long position is still relatively low for the current gold price, suggesting further upside potential for gold if the currency markets move in bullion’s favour."


    As anyone who has run large futures pools will ruefully attest, the CFTC is an extremely energetic and meticulous supervisor. These unprecedented errors (in silver and copper also) were pointed out to them on Friday afternoon (by the admittedly unwelcome source Ted Butler, nemesis of the silver bears). At least a cautionary could have been put out on Monday. As it was, US futures operators were trading an important breakout with data which was significantly too bullish.


    No wonder retreat/ambush stratagem was so successful!


    JB


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW closed at 10,435, up 22 and the DOG gained 13 to 2047. This means over the last two days, bonds closed sharply higher, the US stock market nicely higher, the euro closed higher, yet gold and silver were bagged, even though gold had just blown through its 200-day moving average to the upside. What a joke!


    Aside from the strange and better than expected consumer confidence number, most all the other economic numbers over the past few days have been very much on the weak side, including this one:


    10:00 Chicago Purchasing Manager's index reported 56.4 vs. consensus 65
    May reading was 68.


    From Jesse on the CPM:


    Look at the attached chart. See any Trends?


    June Chicago PMI 56.4 (-11.6 pts)


    Key Factors


    * Powerful 11.6 pt plunge follows two month rise of 10.4 points to May's 16 year high.
    * Chicago index is volatile. Trend levels remain strong as does the manufacturing sector.
    * Both new orders and production fell from levels in the low 70s to mid 50s. May new orders were at a multi-decade high.
    * Employment edged lower but stands at a moderate 53.6.
    * Prices paid on inputs rose to a still higher 84.5. Output pricing has shown a decided turn higher


    -END-


    Higher interest rates could set off a derivatives bomb in Freddy Mac land:


    REUTERS Freddie Mac 2003 Profit Falls 52 Percent


    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac, struggling to straighten out its books and its reputation after an accounting scandal, on Wednesday reported its 2003 profit fell 52 percent.


    Freddie Mac earned $4.9 billion, or $6.79 per share, down from $10.1 billion, or $14.18 per share, in 2002. Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates were expecting a 2003 profit of $5.90 per share, with estimates ranging from $5.70 to $6.56 per
    share….


    -END-


    This disappointing Freddy Mac report follows on the heels of the disappointment at Washington Mutual.

    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Federal Reserve added $4.5 Billion in repos today June 30th 2004. This open market action moved the repo pool up over $50 Billion to $51.77 Billion, a very high value and sure to ram the DOW higher with the primary dealers buying DOW futures in order to implement the Fed's "monetary policy". As a "National Security Index" the DOW cannot be allowed to fall any more than gold can be allowed to rise as interest rates are being raised (At least at the start of the rate climb).


    Applying more pressure to prop the DOW


    Closely examine the repo chart and you will see that the formerly linear repo pool moving average (red) is now curving further upwards ever-so-slightly. This small detail tells us that the Fed is getting a bit nervous that the DOW isn't responding fast enough to make the Fed mandated rendezvous with 11,750 (Its previous high) on Labor Day 2004. So they are adding to the repo pool in increments sufficient to turn the ma up.


    For those new to the cafe, there is a correlation between the overall size of the unexpired repurchase agreement pool issued by the Federal Reserve and the 30-day moving average of the DOW. The actually mechanism is the purchase of DOW futures by the Fed's primary dealers who take their repos and present them as collateral for cash and then enter the open market to carry out the Fed's monetary policy wishes while they "make money". The best example of this is the "Iraq War Rally" which was in truth only the Fed pouring repos both temporary and permanent into a depressed DOW.


    COMEX Scorched Earth


    Few believe the "error" in Friday's COT report was really an error. Luring more speculators into the gold pits as the report did, cannot be viewed without deep suspicion that CFTC managers knew beforehand that a hammer was coming on gold and purposely issued a bogus, wildly bullish report in order to trap gold long speculators (Thus carrying out the Fed's anti-gold "monetary policy"). Would they really do such a thing?


    If the situation were bad enough, in my opinion, they certainly would. Indeed, IF the gold cartel had sufficient tonnages of gold and silver to sell, they would not NEED to resort to such risky in-the-open COMEX trickery.


    This event, small as it is, serves to support my radical conjecture that authorities will default the COMEX AND the LBMA gold and silver markets at the moment when their remaining gold and/or silver stocks fall to criticality or when a sufficiently large entity enters the market on the long side. Such a default will trap COMEX longs while the rest of the world's gold prices rocket higher. The G-10, of course, will simultaneously install a fixed gold price with thousands of effective metal detectors to monitor and apply tariffs to import/export gold and silver activity. However, in all price control regimes there will be profound scarcity at the official level and huge premiums offered on the internal black market.


    The security of having personal custody of one's investment and the likely future leverage from these premiums makes physical metal a very attractive thing these days.


    Jim Sinclair is now arm-waving for physical gold as I (Along with Richard Russell and many others) have been doing for well over a year. Moreover, now may be the best time to add to your positions. By the 10th of July the time may well have passed and one must then wait for another opportunity.


    Make no mistake, the Fed is in a death struggle, gold war retreat and is acting frustrated with this latest metallic tantrum.
    Mike


    But, there is no inflation:


    Reuters
    General Mills Earnings Up, Headwinds Seen
    Wednesday June 30, 9:14 am ET


    CHICAGO (Reuters) - General Mills Inc. (NYSE:GIS - News) on Wednesday said quarterly earnings rose 24 percent, as an additional week of sales offset higher ingredient costs and weakness from the popularity of low-carbohydrate diets.


    The maker of Progresso soups and Wheaties cereal trimmed its profit growth outlook through fiscal 2006, warning that earnings in the next fiscal year would be hurt by the rising costs of energy, fats, oils, dairy and other commodities, as well as increases in health care and restricted stock expenses.


    "To offset those headwinds, our plan includes stronger levels of product innovation, companywide productivity and cost-savings initiatives, and selected price increases that are necessary due to the increases in our input costs," said Chairman and Chief Executive Steve Sanger in a statement.


    The Minneapolis-based company, which earlier this month raised wholesale prices in several food categories to help offset rising costs, also raised its quarterly dividend by 13 percent…


    -END-


    This guy should be canned from the futures industry, not have the opportunity for a new role:


    Good morning Bill
    The following appears in today's London edition of the FT and may, or may not, be of interest to you, or you may have the news already, but in case you haven't here goes:


    CFTC CHIEF IN RUNNING FOR NYMEX POST


    The board of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) has voted in favour of making an offer to James Newsome to replace Bo Collins, outgoing president.


    Nymex, the world's biggest energy futures exchange, has yet to announce the decision of Mr Newsome, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US futures industry regulator.


    Nachamah Jacobovits, a Nymex spokeswoman, said the exchange had yet to conclude its search for a new president. Mr Collins' contract expires today.


    "Newsome is an excellent candidate" said one person close to Nymex. "He is a very open regulator, he listens to all sides and has a great understanding of the market"


    As Mr Newsome's job at the CFTC is a political appointment he must inform President George W. Bush in person of his intentions before an announcement.


    Mr Newsome was due to address a conference in London yesterday but was replaced at the last minute by Sharon Brown-Hruska, a fellow CFTC commissioner.
    -END-


    The article goes on to talk about a likely salary package, Parthenon Capital trying to acquire a majority stake in Nymex and the CBOT's interest in Nymex.
    All the best
    Ian

    Bill,
    After reading Jim Sinclair’s "The Attack of the Rotten Tomatoes," I emailed him this morning and told him the following:


    Dear Jim,
    Congratulations in your effort toward a free market in gold and silver. In response to your suggested 5% position in physical gold, my reaction is that it is WAY TOO LOW!
    Personally, I have 95% of my net liquid assets (personal and IRA) in gold and silver equities, bullion, and numismatics.
    As a registered investment advisor, our clients are weighted 70% among 7 large mining companies (U.S., Canada, and S. Africa) with the remaining 30% split among a bearish equity fund and a bearish dollar fund.
    Regards,
    Wistar W. Holt
    Holt & Shapard Capital Management, LLC
    212 N. Kingshighway Blvd. Suite 1027
    St. Louis, MO 63108
    (314)367-6300 / (877)367-6300
    http://www.holtshapard.com/


    Here's that Fed gold hater again:


    Bill,
    I found this quote from a former Federal Reserve Governor on the MSNBC website and I thought that you would find it interesting. Why should he care what the price of gold is?
    Best regards,
    Bill


    Hike by how much?


    What does the Fed do today and what should it do? Simple, it raises rates by a quarter-point today and tries to prolong the expectation it will continue to raise rates in a measured way. But it should raise rates by half a point, said former Federal Reserve governor Wayne Angell.


    “I would much prefer for them to do 50 basis points now and then announce that they will need to wait six months to find out the impact of 50 basis points today,” Angell told CNBC’s “Wake Up Call.” It'll be tough to measure the effect of “a diddling 25 basis points” rise, but a 50 basis point rise would help the price of gold back down and contain inflation, he said.


    -END-


    What the financial world was waiting for:


    June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers raised the U.S. benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 1.25 percent and said further increases can come at a ``measured'' pace. The Fed promised to respond as needed to any changes in ``economic prospects.'' –END-


    The Fed announcement was on the less hawkish side and somewhat dollar bearish. Now, you know why The Gold Cartel slammed gold the past two days. They didn’t want it to be in technical position to vault way above $400. The crooks doing the price managing knew what the Fed was going to do and say, therefore, they acted in advance and accordingly. If gold were flying above $400 and rocketed higher tomorrow from say $406, critics would say the sharply rising gold price above $400 is an indicator the Fed was too soft and too far behind the curve. Can it be any more clear what the Orwellians have done and why?


    This is truly a drag, yet one we have to live with to make the big bucks as this year goes on. Patience will pay off. The powers in New York and Washington have lied so much about the economy, in their reports and about managing markets, they have put themselves in a box. The Fed is in the same box. They know combating the real inflation in the US could crush our economy, which is more fragile than they have let on and recent economic reports have revealed; therefore, they are going to wimp by and hope for the best. The negative interest rate scenario will worsen, not improve. This can only be dollar bearish and gold bullish.


    The Fed revealed itself today to be an emperor with no clothes. It shouldn’t be too long before the financial world comes to that conclusion. The bad guys are running out of ways to maneuver. The physical gold and silver markets are strong and they will get stronger as the year goes on. The Gold Cartel continues to huff and puff. In the not too distant future they will turn into impotent windbags and our day will come. The Fed’s decision this afternoon makes that "day" more likely to come sooner rather than later.


    The XAU closed up 1.71 at 86.29 and the HUI gained 3.58 to 189.94. Both near their highs of the day. Perhaps the future is now?


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    Der Goldbullion Fond ist nun auch in Deutschland zugelassen:


    BaFin approves Gold Bullion Securities prospectus


    • Prospectus for new gold product available from June 30 London, 1 July 2004 – Germany's financial services supervisory body, BaFin, has approved the prospectus for the World Gold Council-backed Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) enabling distribution in the German market with effect from 30 June 2004. German investors can now buy and sell Gold Bullion Securities through licensed financial sales partners
    ....
    In just over six months since listing on the London Stock Exchange and 15 months since listing on the Australian Stock Exchange, trading has resulted in US630 million of gold in trust, which is equivalent to just over 49 tonnes of gold. In this time, GBS has attracted assets under management that compare favourably with exchange traded funds, while its liquidity demonstrates that the product is being used as an efficient way to access the gold market.
    A full sales prospectus is available from June 30 free of charge from Jaron & Amann, Finanzkommunikation und Neue Medien GmbH, Leo-Tolstoi-Straße 19a, 64297 Darmstadt.

    July 1 - Gold $395.80 up $3 – Silver $5.93 up 15 cents


    US Market Scenario For Gold/Silver Extremely Friendly


    When future historians look back on our way of curing inflation they'll probably compare it to bloodletting in the Middle Ages... Lee Iacocca


    GO GATA!!!


    After the Fed announcement yesterday, gold jumped $2 to $2.50 higher in Access trading and generally held those gains going into the Comex bell. Once Comex opened, gold sold off in prerequisite fashion before moving back up in very choppy action. Gold made Mickey Mouse new highs several times during the day only to be held in check each time, unlike Tuesday’s downdraft when it fell as if in a waterfall


    Incredibly, the general public’s interest in gold remains abysmal,, even while the reasons to own gold continue to build and build. The Café Sentiment Indicator remains around a 3, which it has been hovering at for some time. New trials and daily site hits are way down.
    The most significant new bullish factor for gold is a biggie and centers around the quickly deteriorating US economy with simultaneously increasing inflation (see below).


    So much for the death of expensive crude oil. Crude has jumped sharply the past two sessions ($3.09 per barrel), closing today at $38.74, up $1.69). Heating oil is leading the way as reports are surfacing there could be a dramatic shortage due to very cold weather predictions this coming winter.


    We know all about the bad guys sitting on the gold price. We also know gold will not explode until these bums are beaten. Recent developments in the US suggest that day has come a lot closer. My guess is that when gold is going to make its big move up, it will do so very quickly and probably explode out of nowhere.


    The gold open interest fell 2522 contracts to 224,217. Specs were burnt on the move down from $430 and the ones who jumped back in on the breakout above $400 were burnt again. The Gold Cartel has them very leery of jumping in on the long side, which has been their objective all along.


    Silver has been frenetic of late, going on a tear above $6 and then tanking into the $570’s. One day it looks fabulous, the next day crummy. This weird up-and-down trading action suggests the end of the price correction is very close at hand. Net net, it has built a huge base below $6 which can support a price move to much higher levels. If 20 million ounces comes out of the Comex warehouses in the coming weeks, silver should fly.


    July silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/74


    The silver open interest dropped 1088 contracts to 89,133.


    Morgan Stanley was once again the aggressive silver buyer and they also jumped on the buy gold side during the Comex trading session.


    Copper is holding up very well considering the reports of economic slowdown. July closed at $122.20. The death of the copper price rise, like oil, appears to be greatly exaggerated.


    The John Brimelow Report


    Thought about South Africa recently?


    Thursday, July 01, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.08, PM $6.51, with world gold at $394.25 and $395.50. Well above legal import level. India is an importer of gold in the mid $390s.


    Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums have also moved back into positive territory. Dubai premiums remain quite positive.


    TOCOM is going back to sleep. World gold went out unchanged from NY at $393, the active contract closed down 3 yen, aggregate volume dropped 67% to only equal 14,239 Comex lots, and open interest was essentially unchanged (+375 Comex).


    Yesterday of course, ranks amongst the finest examples of ‘tape painting’ or market grooming seen in gold for a long time. As ScotiaMocatta grumpily notes:


    "The metal made a number of attempts to break 396.50 but dealer offering kept a lid on it. Gold then went quiet and remained in a narrow range until the last thirty minutes of trading when fund selling emerged. The fund offering forced locals to give up on their long positions causing the metal to go into a steady slide. "


    The same was true of silver. What seems to have irritated the dealers, several of whom note the violence of the quarter-end selling (estimated volume jumped 31% in the last tenth of the trading day) is that prices immediately rallied in the after market.


    ABARE, the permanently gold-bearish Australian Government agency charged with monitoring mineral price trends, has produced a negative comment on Chinese gold demand, arguing that rising domestic mine production will accommodate increased demand for the foreseeable future. They fail entirely to address the key (and genuinely puzzling) question of why Chinese gold demand has been so stagnant over the last decade, despite huge real income growth per capita. During this time, Chinese adornment demand has revolutionized the platinum market, and India has validated the classic Venerosian "wealth effect" concept for gold. This is a very real question.


    However, at least they mention China. Unmentioned recently has been the progress the South African government is making in strangling the gold mining industry there, and choking off any new projects. The strength of the rand (at a two-year high today) demonstrates that the country is being run for the benefit of the (often foreign) rentier or carry-trade operator, rather than the local real economy, which is in fact faltering. Ironically, this is something which never happened under Apartheid. The consequences for any foreign trade-exposed local producers is catastrophic.


    Today came news that the SA authorities are blithely proceeding to demand that all new projects accommodate majority black ownership. Reuters says the Deputy Mining Minister, appropriately named Lulu,


    "dismissed concerns that the new rules would dampen foreign investment in the sector. "This has not happened. We have foreign companies coming into the country who are very interested in investing in the sector," she said."


    This is actually very important. It means that the largest gold producer in the word, which is also the place where the most obvious exploration elephants continue to be (although this has been unmentionable for 30 years), is going out of business.


    Anyone who doubts this should consider Zimbabwe.


    If economics were not enough, the SA government, facing a situation where the propertied classes are facing a holocaust of crime, is responding by reducing the ability of individuals to protect their families: see


    http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39139


    The remarks in


    http://www.vdare.com/misc/rushton_iq.htm


    and


    http://www.vdare.com/misc/rushton_african_iq.htm


    are conclusive.


    I AM OUT OF INTERNET CONTACT UNTIL THE 10TH.


    JB

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
    While the price of gold was basically capped all session long, once again we see the Working Group On Financial Markets prevent a severe stock market hit. The DOW, down over 150 at one point, pulled ANOTHER Hail Mary rally late to finish off a modest 102 at 10,333. The DOG fell 32 to 2015.


    Bonds continued their rally, up another ½ point to 106 28/32, basis Sep. The dollar rose meekly to 89.08, up 8. The yen was firm, while the euro fell .20 to 121.58.


    Sarge noted early on today:


    Today was expected. The same big player who did half of the total volume of the DIAs on the buy side yesterday (i.e. pump the market up for the end of the month and quarter) has unloaded 300,000 shares at 9:40, 150,000 at 9:49, 200,000 at 9:57, 150,000 at 10:37, 350,000 at 11:12 and 175,000 more at 12:12. That’s 1,325,000 shares dumped by this one entity alone. He has yet to lose on a trade too. I have the prices he bought on the way up and the prices he is bailing at on the way down. This is a big Fall Street firm like JPM or GS or one of those that are tied to repo pool money. –END-


    The debate between US stock market bulls and bears this past year has been some tug of war. The bulls have pointed to sterling corporate profits and a strong US economy as reasons our market should advance. They have tended to concentrate on micro economic issues. The bears have focused on macro economic issues such as the monstrous US deficits, level of US consumer debt, geopolitical situation, etc.


    On balance the bulls have carried the day so far if one uses the price action of our stock market as the judge. However, the bull’s daylight appears to be turning into a creepy night. The economic data the past two weeks has turned for the worse and in fairly dramatic fashion. Why? Perhaps what was fueling the bull case has come to an end – that being historic low interest rates, the tax cuts and government stimulus related to the Iraq War.


    It appears it is time for the US to pay the piper. All day long reports come my way where inflation is kicking in, even as the economy begins to roll over. A couple of more examples:


    COLUMBIA, S.C., July 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- South Carolina Electric &
    Gas Company (SCE&G), principal subsidiary of SCANA Corporation (NYSE: SCG), today filed an application with the Public Service Commission of South Carolina (PSC) requesting a 5.66 percent overall increase in retail electric base rates. – END-


    ConAgra has raised prices on retail foods


    CHICAGO, July 1 (Reuters) - ConAgra Foods Inc. on Thursday said it has raised prices on some of its retail brands to offset escalating commodity costs.


    Dennis O'Brien, president and chief operating officer for ConAgra's retail foods division, discussed the price increases during a telephone presentation to analysts about the company's fourth-quarter earnings report.


    "Like many other food manufacturers, we are facing higher costs across a wide range of raw materials, packaging and energy inputs," he said. "We have implemented price increases and will continue to evaluate appropriate actions where warranted."


    -END-


    Meanwhile, all 3 US economic reports this morning were WEAKER than expected:


    July 1 (Bloomberg) -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week to 351,000, a level economists said remains consistent with job growth.


    10:00 May Construction Spending reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.7%
    Prior reading revised to 1.2% from 1.3%


    July 1 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. manufacturing fell in June to a level that remains close to a 20-year high, an industry report showed.
    The Institute for Supply Management's factory index for June dropped to 61.1 from 62.8 in May. A reading greater than 50 signals expansion. The measure has exceeded 60 for eight straight months, the longest such stretch since July 1983-February 1984. The index reached 63.6 in January, the highest since December 1983. –END-


    The expectation for the ISM number was 61.5%.
    This news, out after the stock market close, was no good either:


    GM and Ford suffer sharp fall in June sales
    By Jeremy Grant in Chicago
    Published: July 1 2004 20:51


    Sales of General Motors and Ford vehicles fell sharply in June - despite persistent use of financing incentives - as Detroit's two biggest carmakers battled to fend off their Japanese rivals amid a strengthening US economy.


    Both carmakers also reported inventories at higher then expected levels, as well as a 5 per cent fall each in sales to retail customers, traditionally a more profitable market than rental fleets.


    "Quite simply, June was tough," said Paul Ballew, GM's director of market and industry analysis.


    The world's largest carmaker said June sales were down by 15 per cent compared to last year. Ford's were down 7.7 per cent, the 12th consecutive monthly fall in the last 14 months....


    -END-


    To put the US economic scene in further perspective we turn to The King Report sent out late last night:


    The King Report
    M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
    Thursday July 1, 2004 – Issue 2950 "Independent View of the News"


    A stunningly disturbing Chicago PMI trumped the Fed rate hike. The action in the markets yesterday suggested a change in economic perceptions. It could be the beginning of the end. The ugly Chicago PMI details: 56.4, 65 expected; employment fell to 53.6 from 54.8; production collapsed to 53.9 from 71.1; new orders collapsed to 56.8 from 74.4; prices paid jumped to 84.5 from 80.


    You can forget all the post mortems on the Fed decision and communiqué; the real talk in the money world yesterday was the astonishing collapse in the Chicago PMI. Dec Eurodollars, which, like other markets had priced in a 25bp rate hike, rallied 13 bps. The perception that the Fed must or will raise rates sharply by year end is changing. And that was the topic in the Eurodollar pit yesterday.


    Many professed surprise and concern about Fed dovishness. The reason for the Fed’s dovishness and the FOMC communiqué is emerging. But that does NOT excuse Easy Al for his malfeasance.


    For months we have been warning that: 1) the US economy would peak in April –May and 2) Easy Al’s boneheaded policy of keeping rates at emergency levels even though inflation has been increasing for the past few years has the Fed so behind the inflation curve that Easy Al would be raising rates as the economy was rolling over. And that’s precisely what is occurring.


    The Chicago PMI, as we keep noting, has been exhibiting more strength that any other index including the Fed’s Midwest survey. Yesterday the Chicago PMI crashed in the biggest drop since September 1974. 1974 was a seminal year in US economic history. Its recession was the worst since The Great Depression and marked the long-term trend of declining US real wages and US manufacturing and the ascent of Japan and Germany as manufacturing leaders. Japan is stagnant; Germany is in decline.


    When the PMI and other sentiment survey were showing strength not substantiated in hard data we kept averring that the headlines like ‘US manufacturing at 20-year’ were egregiously duplicitous. These surveys are opinions, not hard data, and the economists that were heralding the strength should know better. The June collapse is evidence that reality has returned to those being surveyed. Of course this is a collapse in sentiment, but the data is showing contraction also.


    Please recall that many months ago we noted that in Q3 when GDP soared to +8.3% US industrial production DECLINED. It wasn’t until Q4 and Q1 that US companies increased production and built up inventories. We stated then that this is what seeds a recession – businesses building inventory and registering tres jiggy sentiment readings AFTER a consumer binge. And that binge occurred on historically low interest rates, a tax rebate, accelerated depreciation biz benefits and war spending. Much of the stimulus has or is due to end. And the y/y comparisons that were so easy in April/May turn much tougher now. You don’t need complex econometric models or a staff of economists and statisticians if you think sans bias, ‘do the work’ and understand how the data is compiled and what it really represents.


    An intractabull economist from a major firm, who for months hyperventilated on PMI survey strength, yesterday demurred on CNBC that you shouldn’t heed the Chi PMI’s historic decline for June.


    -END-


    The Times’ Morgenson is very talented:


    As Greenspan Chases Inflation, Critics Shout, 'Faster!'


    By GRETCHEN MORGENSON


    Published: July 1, 2004


    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07…3fab4&ei=5059&partner=AOL
    Europe and inflation:


    LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - The September Bund future extended losses on Thursday and Euribor futures briefly dipped after the European Central Bank chief highlighted risks to inflation, reinforcing expectations of a rate hike by the end of the year.
    Following the ECB's decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.00 percent, Jean-Claude Trichet said "looking ahead we remain confident that the recovery of economic activity will continue, the conditions for broadening and strengthing of recovery are in place."
    He also said the ECB needs to remain vigilant on inflation expectations and long-term inflation expectations remain relatively high.
    "Trichet is also saying that the risks to inflation are to the upside over the medium-term, which does jepordise rates being on hold for a while," said Andre de Silva, deputy head of bond strategy at HSBC.


    -END-

    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The Fed added $14.5 Billion in tomos (Temporary repurchase agreements) today July 1rst 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to fall a bit to $50.52 Billion. However, until the close today the repo pool will be over $65 Billion (Until the expirations are returned) so the DOW has a healthy dose of financial narcotics today. We'll have to see how it responds. The trend of increasing repo support for the DOW is in place and even rising a bit as reported yesterday.


    It bears reporting that there is no durable record of the Fed's daily issuances and expirations. Thus the data retained on my computer and on the computers of those followers who take the time to construct their own repo records are the only record of the repo pool. It would be delightful to go back before November 2002 but I don't have that data and can't get it. This condition satisfies an important feature of the government's interventional policy...if you can get the data easily, it's worthless.


    10AM Spikes and Deep Vees


    Yesterday brought yet another 10AM spike exactly at the PM Fix time of 10AM EST. From time to time we also see a reverse process yielding a "Deep Vee" dive to an exact PM Fix number. These acts seem to come when the cartel is having either an easy time (As it did yesterday) or a hard time when they must apply heavy selling pressure to meet their rendezvous with the PM Fix). In the past, GATA members conjectured that these odd movements were related to some kind of derivatives mandated level. We know for example, that JP Morgan stipulates that the PM Fix is the gold price to be used in their interest rate/gold swap derivative contract as I have the contract in my possession. These odd movements in and around the PM Fix remain a mystery.


    For now we must be satisfied that any durable explanation of the mechanism of government intervention must include an explanation of the Deep Vees and 10AM spikes in gold price actions. It's only a matter of time.
    Mike


    A SPECIAL ALERT issued by Mike this afternoon:


    Hi Bill:
    My previous June 29th alert was later modified to July 6th however the difference is hardly measurable in terms of being out of speculative positions for the time being.


    I am renewing my alert from now until further notice. It is best to step away from positions until the Fed's transition actions are more clearly known. We should have a better idea by mid-next week or at the latest by the end of the week.


    On the other hand, if one is preparing to invest in gold or silver, the coming days may prove to be an excellent opportunity.


    Ed Steer notes that the HUI appears to be under unusual pressure, doubtless from shorts who have "inside" information. In addition, with the DOW failing to rise today, even with $65 Billion in repos to assist it is yet another important marker of Fed stress. The standard Fed stress reaction is to always hammer gold.


    Silver continues to be a steal anywhere below $6 and the only sure way to gain leverage is to actually have both of the metals (Gold and Silver)...there is no Fed defense for that.
    Best,
    Mike


    Letter to the editor of the St. Louis Post Dispatch by Wistar Holt which complements some of my earlier sentiments:


    To the Editor:


    Smoke and Mirrors


    On Wednesday June 30, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate a mere ¼% to 1 ¼%. In your lead article on July 1, 2004, titled "Fed’s Rate Hike Signals Rebound in Economy" Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones, proclaimed, "This is confirmation that the economy is rock solid….It’s unbelievable how good things are right now." Ironically, this is an eerie reminder of the widespread euphoria expressed by sell side brokerage firms in early 2000, just before the NASDAQ began a gut wrenching 86% decline.


    An economy is not "rock solid" if it faces the following problems:


    * A $500+ billion annual budget deficit
    * A $500+ billion annual current account deficit
    * A 25% decline in the U.S. dollar
    * Record debt levels in all segments of the economy including federal, state, local governments, corporations, and individuals
    * Extremely low savings rate among individuals
    * High levels of bankruptcies and foreclosures among individuals


    No, that scenario describes an economy that has been injected with the highest level of fiscal and monetary "steroids" in history in an effort to avoid the normal, painful contraction and unwinding necessary after an economy loses $7 trillion from the bursting of an equity bubble. If everything is so great, why did Greenspan only raise rates to 1 ¼% which is well below the rising inflation level, and light years below the 4% proclaimed neutral level? Why does Skrainka go on to say "Greenspan did not want to surprise the markets?" Once again, if everything is great, what is Greenspan worried about? Well, the answer is crystal clear. Greenspan is caught in a dilemma between raising rates enough to thwart inflationary pressures (building materials, food, energy, and healthcare) and raising them too much and popping the existing bubbles in stocks, bonds, real estate, and credit. There is no easy way out. Something will have to give and it will not be pretty.


    Wistar W. Holt
    Holt&Shapard Capital Management LLC
    Chase Park Plaza
    212 North Kingshighway Blvd. Suite 1027
    St. Louis, Mo. 63108
    314-367-6300
    http://www.holtshapard.com


    The pot calling the kettle, from the pitiful CFTC:


    CFTC: NRG Energy gave false information on gas trades (NRG) By Kate Gibson
    CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- NRG Energy (NRG) gave false reports on the price of natural gas to an industry publication, according to a complaint filed in federal court Thursday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Minneapolis-based power company from August 2001 through May 2002 gave false price and volume information on hundreds of trades to Gas Daily, an affiliate of McGraw-Hill. "Today's complaint targets deceitful conduct that has the potential to harm our natural gas markets," said Gregory Mocek, director of the CFTC's enforcement division. The federal regulator's suit accuses NRG of violating the Commodity Exchange Act. NRG officials did not immediately return calls for comment. In afternoon trade, NRG stock was off 57 cents at $24.23.


    -END-


    Goldman Sachs in action:


    Goldman Sachs fined $2 million


    Wall Street firm settles charges that it violated IPO 'waiting period' regulations.
    July 1, 2004: 10:49 AM EDT


    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Goldman, Sachs & Co., the New York investment banking powerhouse, has been slapped with a $2 million fine for illegally offering institutional clients shares in certain initial public offerings, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Thursday.


    Some thoughts on the HUI from Australia:


    Hi Bill
    Hope all is well. I thought I would share with you a few insights on the HUI, that I have noticed.


    I don't know how many of you follow candle sticks but I have been trained by one the best. A fellow American of yours from Chicago who trades on the floor, Daniel Gramza. Dan has a book out now that is definitely worth a read and apparently he pretty much pioneered the use of candles in the U.S, although this is rather anecdotal.


    Anyway I have been following the HUI of course and it is interesting to note the recent sell off that started earnestly in early April. If we look at this in 'weekly' charts and one definitely should be to get a feel for the power of a market anyway, we notice three lovely and 'scary' red candles that have virtually equal body lengths. This formation is known as 'Three Black Crows' in Japan, where these things were invented, as is a very powerful reversal signal in all Asian markets. The Japanese go short with haste when they encounter them . I have attached a few charts for your interest.


    However in Western markets exactly the opposite prevails. For myriad cultural reasons this formation is a 'trend continuation pattern' in the West. Dan tells me this pattern is quite powerful and confirms the previous trend in your markets and I have found the same in Australia. Liquidity is the key to any of these things but we have plenty with the HUI, so we can confidently forecast the break-out of the current 'pennant' formation will be back up. The pennant is a lovely text book formation at present and is nicely symmetrical with an upward bias, adding to the expectation of an upside break-out and confirming our 'Three Black Crows' formation.


    The sell off would have otherwise worried me and seeing those big red weekly candles could have but knowing they are Three Black Crows and what they imply for us, I sleep well at night with my U.S, Canadian and Australian gold shares.
    All the best.
    Marc
    marcjt@ozemail.com.au


    And then from the Netherlands’ Eric Hommelberg:


    Hi Bill,
    On May 14 I send you some notes regarding the HUI when it just reached a low of 163. I suggested then that a sharp upward correction could happen any time soon due to its extreme oversold condition (most oversold condition in 6 years time) and extreme bearish sentiment.


    Well, that was May 14. What happened next ? Did the HUI bottom out ? Did sentiment towards gold shares improve ?


    Although Gold is way above its low of $371 ($395) the Gold shares are still struggling in order to awake from their deep coma. Yes, the HUI seems to have bottomed out on 163 but still the performance of the HUI is far from impressive and certainly not reflecting a Gold price approaching $400. In December of last year when Gold exceeded the $400 mark ($404) the HUI had a rocket launch all the way up to 250. Last week when Gold hit the $405 mark all the HUI could manage was a lousy move to 197. What a difference. Bad sign ? Should we worry ? No ! In contrary, I think this could be the best buy opportunity of the entire year. Why ? Let me explain :


    What do you expect from gold shares in a rising Gold environment ?


    Well, gold shares will outperform the percentage gain in Gold due to their leverage right ? (big hedgers excluded). So in a long term uptrend in Gold, Gold shares will rise faster than Gold itself.


    Just look at the facts to prove this point. Gold rose by approximately 60% over the last three years while the HUI exceeded this gain by far with > 400%. So here it is, Gold/HUI ratio will decline over time in a rising Gold environment (HUI rising faster than Gold).


    By analyzing the Gold/HUI ratio one could argue that the Gold/HUI ratio is due for a sharp decline which could launch the HUI in a spectacular way !


    First take a look at the Gold/HUI chart below :


    So what do we see ?


    * Gold/HUI ratio declines over time since early 2001 as expected
    * Gold/HUI ratio only breached its 200 dma (since early 2001) on two previous occasions where it didn’t stay there for a long period of time (which is of course normal for any item in a long-term down trend)
    * Gold/HUI ratio is headed for a new low before year end (<1 ?)


    The latest countertrend rally seems to be topping out because it has hit the upper long-term downtrend line and breached its 200 dma which normally won’t last for a long period of time. Also the RSI hit an extreme high lately which points towards an accelerated decline of the Gold/HUI ratio as well.


    Conclusion : Gold/HUI ratio could accelerate to the downside which translates itself into a rapid increase for the HUI compared to the price of Gold !


    HUI prediction for year end ? Well, that’s almost impossible to say because a lot depends on the price of Gold. But if Mr. Jim Sinclair is right and we will see a Gold price of $480 before year end and the Gold/HUI ratio reaches a new low (<1.5) then a projection of HUI 400 is certainly not out of the question (POG $480 and Gold/HUI ratio 1.2, 480:1.2 = 400).
    Best,
    Eric


    Mahendra called from Nairobi, Kenya to say hello. He’s still on a roll, after advising his subscribers to buy crude oil this morning. Time to buy gold and silver on dips, according to this seer. He is looking for a good week coming up, but the real fireworks to kick in during August. Concerning the stock market, he sees 3 to 4 years of downside with at least one 500-point down day ahead.
    While the DOW was spared from taking a serious hit, the gold shares were sat on all day long and fell off as the day wore on. The XAU slipped .93 to 85.36 and the HUI sank 2.47 to 186.47


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    U.S. June Payrolls Rise 112,000; Jobless Rate Holds at 5.6%


    July 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies added 112,000 workers to payrolls in June, less than half the median forecast, and factory jobs fell for the first time in five months, suggesting businesses were turning more cautious entering the year's second half.


    The unemployment rate held steady at 5.6 percent for a third month, the Labor Department reported in Washington. Job gains in the previous two months also were revised downward by a total of 35,000, to 235,000 in May and 324,000.


    ``Maybe the economy is losing some of its gloss,'' said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic advisor at Schwab Soundview Capital Markets in Washington and a former Federal Reserve governor, before the report. ``We won't continue to grow as rapidly as we have been, but I think we will continue to generate jobs.''


    The creation of 1.3 million jobs so far this year, the biggest six-month gain in four years, has yet to bolster President George W. Bush's job approval rating ahead of the November election. Smaller payroll and wage gains may allow Fed policy makers to keep their commitment to raise the target interest rate at a ``measured'' pace to contain inflation.


    The job gains ``aren't enough to maintain the kind of economic growth we have become used to lately,'' said Sung won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, before the report. ``The Fed may decide to skip some of the tightening'' investors are projecting, he said.


    Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 250,000 last month following a previously reported increase of 248,000 in May according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.6 percent. The number of jobs created this year was the most for any six-month period since December 1999-May 2000.


    Bush Ratings


    Bush's job approval rating remained near a low for his term, leaving him in a statistical tie with his Democratic challenger, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll released Wednesday. The poll showed 40 percent of those surveyed approved of how Bush is handling the economy, compared with 52 percent who disapproved.


    ``I'm not surprised that the politics are tight here, even though the economy is clearly improving,'' said David Kelly, an economic advisor at Putnam Investments in Boston in an interview Tuesday. Consumers ``spent the income tax refunds. The refinancing is gone. They are waiting for the wage gains.''


    Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, rose 122,000 last month after rising 169,000 in May, according to the Labor Department report. The increase was led by a 39,000 rise in professional and business services, which include temporary help agencies.


    Manufacturers lost 11,000 jobs last month, the first decline since January. The manufacturing workweek fell to 40.8 hours from 41.1 in May and overtime held at 4.6 hours for a second month.


    Hours and Incomes


    Average weekly hours worked for all employees dropped to 33.6 from 33.8 the prior month. Economists had expected hours would hold at 33.8 hours. Last month's funeral for former President Ronald Reagan caused some offices to close and may have contributed to the decline in hours, some economists said.


    Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent, or 2 cents, after a 0.3 percent increase the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings fell to $525.84 from $528.29 in May.


    Rising incomes are needed to keep consumers spending as interest rates rise. Fed policy makers this week raised the target for their benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years, citing ``solid'' growth and ``improved'' employment conditions. The rate rose to 1.25 percent a 46-year low of 1 percent.


    ....


    Spending


    Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is likely to expand 3.8 percent this year, the most in five years, following a 3.1 percent increase in 2003, according to the median estimate in a separate survey of economists by Bloomberg News last month. That will propel the economy to grow 4.6 percent this year, the most in two decades, according to the survey.


    Among blacks, the unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent from 9.9 percent in May. The jobless rate for Hispanics decreased to 6.7 percent from 7 percent and for whites held at 5 percent for a second month.


    For teenagers, unemployment dropped to 16.8 percent last month from 17.2 percent. The jobless rate for women rose to 5 percent from 4.8 percent. The jobless rate for men fell to 5 percent from 5.2 percent.
    http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…=adJzkaqQn164&refer=home#

    From: GATAComm@a...
    Date: Thu Jul 1, 2004 12:41 pm
    Subject: New York Times: As Greenspan Chases Inflation, Critics Shout, 'Faster!'


    By Gretchen Morgenson
    The New York Times
    Thursday, July 1, 2004


    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/01/business/01place.html


    Inflation and market interest rates are far ahead of
    Alan Greenspan's federal funds rate, which he raised
    yesterday to 1.25 percent. Now the nation will see
    how well Mr. Greenspan, the Federal Reserve
    chairman, plays the game of catch-up.


    Fears that Mr. Greenspan has opened wide the
    door to inflation in the United States by keeping
    interest rates too low for too long prompted a
    selloff in the bond market recently. That has pushed
    short- and long-term rates far above the federal funds
    rate and produced the worst quarter for bond
    investors in almost 25 years.


    Since falling to 3.68 percent in March, yields on
    10-year Treasury securities have risen nearly a point,
    to 4.58 percent yesterday. Yields on two-year
    Treasuries have risen to 2.69 percent from 1.46 in
    March.


    When inflation outruns a central banker, price
    increases on goods and services not only take
    hold, they tend to feed on themselves, rising ever
    higher. Inflation is exceedingly difficult to bring
    under control once it has gained a foothold.


    So it came as a surprise to some economists and
    portfolio managers that Fed policy makers thumbed
    their nose at inflation worries in the statement
    accompanying the rate increase. "Although
    incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated, a
    portion of the increase in recent months appears
    to have been due to transitory factors," the policy
    makers said.


    That is not the opinion of Alan W. Kral, portfolio
    manager at Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen in
    New York. "We believe that inflation has returned,"
    Mr. Kral said. "And the cause of it has been an
    overexpansive monetary policy for almost 10
    years."


    As a result, many say that Mr. Greenspan has
    two battles to fight: one against inflation and one
    against the view that he has been far too
    accommodating in keeping interest rates low.


    "I believe the Fed is behind the curve because
    the economy continues to be strong and the
    inflation rate is creeping up and will continue to
    creep up," said Henry Kaufman, an economist in
    New York. Its plan to raise interest rates gradually
    may be good for the economy, he said, "but is
    not designed to put the system back into balance
    in terms of constraining inflation itself."


    For weeks, the Fed has broadcast its intention
    to raise interest rates glacially, so yesterday's
    move surprised no one. Some economists said
    the Fed's approach was appropriate given the
    economic indicators. "There are good reasons
    for this gradual approach in 2004," said Sung
    Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo
    Co. in Minneapolis. "With the declining price
    of oil, economic fundamentals, including
    productivity and global competition, will keep
    inflation in check."


    In the statement accompanying the interest
    rate increase, the central bank acknowledged
    that the economy showed strength, and it ended
    by saying that it would "respond to changes in
    economic prospects as needed to fulfill its
    obligation to maintain price stability."


    But many view the Fed's extremely measured
    approach to curbing inflation, which is running
    at a rate of 2.9 percent so far this year, as a
    mistake. Paul Kasriel, director of economic
    research at the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago,
    said such a tack allowed for too much
    inflationary pressure to build before meaningful
    brakes were finally applied.


    Mr. Kasriel points to the past for evidence of what
    can happen when the Fed begins to raise rates
    well after inflation has taken hold. He identified two
    other periods during which the Fed began to
    increase rates when the Fed funds rate was in
    negative territory, adjusted for inflation, as it is
    now. Each time -- in March 1971 and July
    1980 -- inflation soon took off with a vengeance.


    "Everyone recognizes that holding the Fed funds
    rate below the inflation rate is a recipe for
    accelerating inflation because it creates an
    incentive for people to go out and buy things and
    finance them at relatively low rates," Mr. Kasriel
    said. "That act tends to drive the prices of those
    goods and services even faster. That was the
    predicament the Fed got itself into in the 1970s
    and spent a long time remedying. Now the Fed
    is in the early stages of squandering some of the
    gains that chairman Volcker made in eliminating
    inflation during the '80s."


    Mr. Kasriel said he thought the Fed would be
    forced to abandon its measured approach to
    interest rate increases early next year when
    inflation pressures become undeniable.


    The stock market barely reacted to the rate
    increase; the Dow Jones industrial average closed
    the day up 22.05 points. Bonds rallied, pushing
    yields on the 10-year Treasury down to 4.58 from
    4.69 on Tuesday.


    Richard Bernstein, chief United States strategist
    at Merrill Lynch, said he was surprised that
    investors seemed so optimistic about the Fed's
    move because corporate profits were no longer
    rising. A study of history, Mr. Bernstein added,
    indicates that financial disruptions have followed
    periods when the Fed raised rates while
    corporate profits slowed.


    There have been only three times during Mr.
    Greenspan's tenure when rates rose while profits
    weakened, Mr. Bernstein said, and each ended
    badly. The first was followed by the recession of
    1990-91; another such period preceded the
    financial crises of the summer of 1998; and
    finally, a period of rising rates and falling profits
    culminated in the collapse of the stock market
    bubble in 2000.


    "Every time that profits growth has peaked out,
    people say it doesn't matter, and every time the
    Fed has started raising rates people say it doesn't
    matter," Mr. Bernstein said. "But every time it has
    mattered. The combination played a major role in
    terms of getting investors to be more risk-averse.
    So to me it is a little remarkable that people are
    so sanguine about this."


    ----------------------------------------------------


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    zum Technik-Tipp vom 30.06. von Klaus Deppermann
    irgendeiner Privatbank o.ä. (es lohnt sich nicht, sich diesen Namen zu merken)

    Zitat

    Meistens befindet sich das Gold dabei in der Rolle des Vorläufermarktes


    gemeint ist Gold im Vergleich zum Dollar


    Ist das ein Depp - mann. Verstanden hat der schon mal gar nichts. Auch wenn er für Gold positiv gestimmt ist.


    Der hat bestimmt auch schon die ganze Zeit gesagt, das Öl billiger wird, weil wir seit 3 Jahren eine Flaute-Wirtschaft haben.
    Is halt ein Profi. :D

    Wirtschaftswoche, Nr. 28 v. 1.7, S.112:


    Vermögensverwalter Joachim Paul Schäfer (PSM Langen v.d. Goltz & Dr. Prinz)


    Einschätzung der Lage an der Börse:


    "Alarm in Amerika" lautete jüngst eine Überschrift in einer großen deutschen Sonntagszeitung. Dem ist aus unserer Sicht wenig hinzuzufügen. Vor allem der US-Immobilienmarkt glüht weiß. In Rekordzeit konnte jüngst Jamestown, der Marktführer für geschlossene Immobilienfonds in den USA, die Anteile seines neuen Fonds an mehr als 12000 Anleger verkaufen. "Aber jetzt ist die Party vorbei", sagt Jamestown-Chef Christoph Kahl überraschend offen, "alte Füchse verkaufen im Moment das, was sie Mitte der Neunzigerjahre erworben haben und warten, bis die Blase platzt".


    Anlegern - die nicht nur in US-Immobilien investierten - sollte das mehr als eine Warnung sein. Zu groß sind die Blasen in den USA, als dass sie noch lange halten könnten. Fast 70 Prozent der US-Haushalte besitzen eigene Immobilien - allerdings sind die meisten voll beliehen und ohne ausreichende finanzielle Rücklage. Wie lange kann das noch gutgehen? Wie lange noch werden vor allem die Länder Asiens die US-Schuldenorgie finanzieren? Europäer tun gut daran, Barreserven aufzubauen und zu beobachten, was die Zinsen machen. Große Chancen werden sich auftun, aber man muss sie abwarten können.


    Vorstellung der Anlagefavoriten für den kommenden Monat:


    Unter den 5 Topwerten (E.ON, Salzgitter, Stada, Bundesanleihe 10 Jahre) im Depot von Hr. Schäfer wurde als Toptitel Gold Fields besprochen.


    Gold wird in den kommenden Jahren eine gewichtige Rolle spielen. Gold Fields verfügt über 80 Mio. Unzen Reserven und weitere Ressourcen von 190 Mio. Unzen. Die Abhängigkeit von Südafrika schwindet, 37 Prozent der Ressourcen liegen in Ghana, 24 Prozent in Australien. Das Unternehmen ist schuldenfrei und hat 750 Mio. US-Dollar Bares sowie fast nur große, rentable Minen. Neue Minen erschließt es nur, wenn die Reserven 2 Mio. Unzen betragen. Das Gold verkauft Gold Fields kaum noch auf Termin, was den Gewinnhebel erhöht. Der russische Nickelkonzern Norilsk hat 20 Prozent an Gold Fields erworben. Das könnte die Tür zu russischen Goldfeldern öffnen.

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A