Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    here we go, das 3ecks ding all ready for the election cycle. dat ding soll jetzt so langsam hochgebeamt werden, nur: Wie hoch??? ueber 11000? new world record??


    die rote fahrtstrecken is nur anhaltspunkt, muss nicht so kommen, kurs kann weiter runter zu den unterstuetzungen ruhig fallen, und zur spitze zurueck so oft muss er sowieso nicht, und nur worstcase-szennario bis wann die spitze zu ende is, je laenger der kurs wieder zu den spitzen zurueck geht bis zur endspitze desto schwaecher und uneiniger die leut. je schneller der kurs nach welle 4 nach oben desto powerfuller der thrust!!


    enjoy the show!


    bis bald!


    (unglaublich, immernoch kein emplyment visa und somit residency, aber naext week muesste es soweit sein, dann bankkonto endlich,auto, telefon, internet,......................=LEBENswuerdigkeiten

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/droke062204.html


    Auch mal interessant, eine andere Meinung zum Dollar zu lesen. Was mich an der Sache eines fallendes Dollars stutzig macht ist eben folgendes:
    Die Medien haben sich darauf eingeschossen, große Investmentgurus wie Soros und Buffet sind mit ihrer Meinung an die Öffentlichkeit getreten
    und ich denke auch viele Hedge Fonds haben sich in derselben Weise positioniert.
    Daher könnte es, auch wenn die fundamentalen Daten dagegen sprechen, in die andere Richtung laufen.
    Oder entwickelt sich doch alles nach der self fullfilling prophecy ?(?


    Ach ja, wie kann ich eigentlich den oben eingefügten Link hier als kompletten Text mit Grafiken usw. reinstellen??


    mfg
    nettrip

    nettrip


    Text reinkopieren, am besten printer friendly version nehmen.


    Grafiken sind dann einzeln einzufügen mit (img)...(/img) (statt der runden die eckigen Klammern nehmen).


    Allerdings, wenn in der Grafikadresse z.B. ein Fragezeichen erscheint, läßt sich die Grafik im Goldseitenforum anscheinend nicht mehr darstellen. Für solche Grafiken bleibt dann nur die Möglichkeit, die Grafik anzuhängen (Dateianhang), d.h. Grafik auf PC runterladen, dann mit "Bearbeiten" Dateianhang ins Forum hochladen.

    Warum schon nächste Woche?


    Wegen dem Abflauen der Unruhen im Irak nach der 'Machtübergabe'?


    Dem Herausnehmen der Unsicherheit nach der Zinserhöhung?


    Das mit der Korrektur kann sich durchaus noch hinziehen!




    ...die Korrektur wird kommen, es ist nur die Frage wann sie kommt...

    Aus "Der Markt heute HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt" vom 25. Juni 2004


    Technische Analyse


    Gold (USD/Unze): Rehabilitiert


    Der Goldpreis dürfte seine Schwächephase endlich überwunden haben. Trotz einer Korrektur von 60 USD in der Spitze blieb der langfristige Aufwärtstrend (akt. bei 371 USD) unversehrt.
    Inzwischen konnte die steigende 200-Tages-Linie bei 396,4 USD zurückerobert werden. Gelingt nun auch noch der nachhaltige Ausbruch über 399 USD, stehen die Zeichen für ein Wiedersehen mit dem diesjährigen Höchststand bei 432 USD günstig. Bei 399 USD liegt nämlich die Nackenlinie einer inversen Schulter-Kopf-Schulter-Formation, aus der sich ein rechnerisches Kursziel von 427 USD errechnen läßt. Auf dem Weg dorthin müssen Hürden bei 404,6 - 406,4 USD (Tageshöchstkurse) und vor allem bei 416 USD (alter Aufwärtstrend) sowie bei 417,8 - 418 USD (Gap vom 13.04.04) überwunden werden. Die Konstellation bei den Indikatoren ist durchaus vielversprechend. Der MACD konnte nach einem Kaufsignal seine Signallinie testen und erfolgreich nach oben abdrehen. Der Stochastik
    weist nach positiven Divergenzen ebenfalls ein gültiges Einstiegssignal auf und ist (wie auch der RSI) vom überkauften Bereich weit entfernt. Selbst die bislang noch niedrige Dynamik (ADX) verbessert sich sukzessive.


    Kurz- und langfristig positiv


    Der gestrige Schlußkurs über 399 USD stellt ein klares charttechnisches Kaufsignal dar.
    Angesichts der intakten übergeordneten Aufwärtstrends können Long-Positionen auf- bzw. ausgebaut werden.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Aha, nun mal ein positiver Kommentar von HSBC.
    Kuddel.

    Hier mal was interessantes zum Gold-Dinar:



    The Road Ahead [Blockierte Grafik: http://yementimes.com/tools/staff/Raidan%20Al-Saqqaf.jpg]
    The Islamic gold dinar


    Raidan Al-Saqqaf




    In order to minimize dependency on US Dollar; Malaysia will be using the golden Dinar in its international trade transactions with other Muslim nations before the end of this year, as a step to push the new currency (Islamic Dinar) to be the currency adopted by the Islamic countries in their inter-transactions in order to increase the number of trade transactions between Islamic countries and enhance their economic development.
    The idea came from Professor Omar Ibrahim Fadillo, founder of the Morabeteen International Organization. According to him; Islamic unity can only be established after the economic unity, coordination and cooperation between the Islamic nations. In addition to that, the important thing behind this concept is that it denotes a symbol from the Islamic history, and adjusting it with today’s international trade operations, symbolizes the real power of Islamic concepts especially while encouraging boycotting of American products, and to limit the influence of the American dollar.
    The success of the gold Dinar as a unified Islamic currency is dependent on three factors: (a) the level of demand for the golden Dinar as a currency, (b) the number of trade transactions between countries dealing in this currency, and (c) the intensity of economic cooperation and coordination between Islamic countries.
    Islamic countries will benefit in many ways from implementing this new currency project, most important of which is that these countries need not have enormous foreign currencies reserves. On the other hand, it is sad to point out that the insignificant amount of trade and economic cooperation between Arab and Muslim nations, knowing that the overall total production of all the Arab countries is less than that of Spain.
    Indeed, this is a very hard time for the Arab world, especially after the war on Iraq; each country now has its own foreign policy and follows its own road, not towards Arab unity but towards its own individual interests. This demonstrates the weaknesses of our nations. We have no shared strategies for the region or future plans with our neighboring Arab and Muslim countries, we are in a sad position lacking in the teamwork required for both short and long term survival.
    However, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad understands the magnitude of the situation; his attempt to create a united Islamic market using one currency, which is the gold Islamic Dinar, is praiseworthy. The system is built on the idea that the Islamic governments keep the gold in a central bank and use it in settling their commercial dealings between each other. Mr. Mahathir has also conducted in 2002 bilateral talks with several Islamic countries, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco and Iran, in order to convince them to use the Islamic Dinar as a way of payment in their commercial dealings with Malaysia. Now the ball is in our court; whether Mahathir’s attempt is to succeed or fail, that depends on our governments.
    Endnote: The Islamic golden Dinar can increase the amount of trade between Muslim countries; in fact, it can create a strong fund unity that helps our economic position.

    June 25 - Gold $402.10 down 50 cents - Silver $6.10 down 6 cents


    Gold Cartel Stops Gold Rally Dead In Its Tracks, Yet Bullion Holds Steady


    Ay, fight and you may die, run and you'll live. At least a while. And dying in
    your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from
    this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here and tell our
    enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take our
    freeeeeeeeeeedom?....William Wallace (Mel Gibson) in the movie Braveheart


    GO GATA!!!


    Yesterday, the open interest went up 12,009 contracts with the funds the major buyers and Goldman Sachs a massive seller. Gold rallied $6.50 right after the opening in less than 15 minutes on little volume. This means most of the buying was done between $6.50 and $8 higher on the day, which is just where Goldman Sachs did all its selling. As per my last MIDAS, "I shudder to think what the open interest did today."


    Sure enough, my fears were confirmed. The Gold Cartel is going all out to keep gold subdued ahead of the Fed’s interest rate proclamation next week. What you clearly have here is the United States, via Goldman Sachs and friends, manipulating the gold price in a concerted and surreptitious fashion. Houston’s Dan Norcini says it all:


    Hi Bill:
    Just got the open interest figures for gold - just as we both suspected - the cartel has sprung back into action. There was a huge jump in O.I. yesterday that can only be explained by a lot of fresh new shorts being put into place as the bulls drove the market up. That coincides nicely with your source stating that Goldman was back up to business as usual. For all those fund shorts that covered, someone was there to take their place on the short side.


    Once again, we have no upside follow through - not even in last afternoon and evening's Access session where gold immediately came under pressure. I have been around the futures racket for many years now and certainly long enough to know bizarre market action when I see it. I will challenge any investor or trader to show me a commodity, any commodity, in which this type of behavior is the norm rather than the exception.


    Just as Mike Bolser has stated so well - conventional technical analysis in a managed market simply fails to explain the market action in gold. The only realistic and conceivable explanation is to admit that the gold market is managed by the financial authorities using as their proxies, Goldman, J.P. Morgan, et al. Why so many in this field refuse to admit such an obvious fact is simply inconceivable to this old veteran.
    Dan


    This is why I was not more pumped yesterday. It is sickening to watch this go on all day long after watching it occur for the last 6 years. With that amount of buying gold should have rallied $14, just like it falls on the downside at times. Unfortunately, gold will never explode until these bums are carried out on a stretcher. Must have fed you that line about 100 times since Jan 1, 1999.


    Thus, while technically the $6 Rule was slightly abrogated, for all practical purposes it was not. The fact that gold did not close higher today also negated the rule breaking. The point is the only reason gold closed more than $6 to $7 higher was because of enormous fund buying. The cabal forces were still in there doing their thing today. Gold buyers at $402/$402.60 met a brick wall of selling.


    Does this mean gold has no chance to move up from here? Not at all. However, it might struggle based on what we saw the past two days and require the cash market to move up with the price. One day within the coming 6 months to a year the bums will be destroyed. Whether it is on this renewed leg up remains to be seen. My bet is that this IS the beginning of the huge move we have been waiting for as the reasons to accumulate gold are building considerably by the week. However, when don’t I think that way?


    A nice plus; for gold to close only slightly lower after yesterday’s decent move is healthy for our team. Normally, the cabal forces would have crushed it. However, they know there is huge fund buying to show up on dips towards $400 and Goldman Sachs and friends don’t want to press their case too hard at these levels. It costs them too much ammo.


    Some interesting news to report, which could be significant. Security firms in Los Angeles are maxed out and are short of personnel. What’s the big deal? Seems members of the Saudi Royal family are flocking to LA and they want security. They are moving there in droves, which will become more apparent after the summer vacation period is over. Obviously, this suggests they are quietly very concerned about what is going on in Saudi Arabia and what might be to come, therefore, they are taking precautions and some are just fleeing.


    For some time now MIDAS has reported the gold refiners have been going flat out with premiums at the highest levels since Y2K. A very reliable source tells me the Arabs have been, and continue to be, very large physical buyers. This is very consistent with the MIDAS commentary the past few weeks.


    The gold COT report was one of the strangest I’ve ever seen. The small specs went more short by the tune of 13,580 contracts, while the Commercials reduced their longs by 6,414 and shorts by 9,081. The large specs added 2,806 longs and reduced their shorts by 7,976. For the small specs to increase their short positions by so much in one week is close to unprecedented as far as I can recall.


    Silver was not as dramatic, yet close, as the small specs added a net of around 7500 contracts to their short position. That is also very unusual.


    This COT report was as of last Tuesday and before Thursday’s run-up. The small specs must have covered shorts hugely on the big move up, which means The Gold Cartel selling was even more spectacular than previously mentioned above!!


    The silver open interest rose 2732 contracts to 90,857.


    Not had much to report on silver the past few months and still trying to get a handle on why silver collapsed so much after the substantial run-up. One thing I am sure of is that my information was correct and the reason for the big move higher was no fluke. It has set the stage for what is to come.


    Time to watch the silver spreads and the Comex warehouse stocks. If the spreads narrow and the Comex silver stocks finally begin to disappear, the mega silver move will finally be at hand and there will be no turning back.

    The John Brimelow Report


    Huge buyer; Dogged seller -Deja Vu again


    Friday, June 25, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.15, PM $2.66, with world gold at $401.40 and $402.50. Below legal import point, of course, but not perhaps as much as one might have expected, given the abruptness of the world gold price increase. (World gold this afternoon in India being $6.30 above yesterday.) The bond market in India hit a 13 month low today on (rather exaggerated) domestic inflation fears: Indian gold enthusiasts are being given much encouragement by recent Indian news.


    Meeting a startlingly higher gold price (+$8) this morning, the TOCOM specs not unnaturally sold. Volume exploded, up 174% to the equivalent of 38,047 lots, and in the event the active contract closed up 12 yen, with world gold at $401.20, down $1.05 from the NY close. Open interest fell a steep 3,451 Comex equivalent, to equal 104,543 Comex lots. (NY yesterday traded a heavy 64,518 contracts; open interest rocketed a stunning 12,009 lots to 231,669.)


    Dealer-Commentators seem surprised and rather impressed that gold managed to smash its way through the heavily-defended technical obstacles which have held it back all week, especially since it did not immediately retreat today. Several make quietly bullish noises. UBS:


    "On the fourth day of trying, gold managed to clear the 200-day moving average…. In Asia, gold held onto the $400/zo handle despite some decent Japanese selling seen from the open but this was met by good demand around the $402 level and this two-way interest continued through the session…We expect further gains in gold next week and have upgraded our 1 and 3 month forecasts accordingly."


    Mitsui-Sydney:


    "On a technical view gold has cleared important resistance auguring well for a short-term push higher."


    Mitsui-London:


    "We favour buying dips and look for an eventual push to 420."


    Sagacious Refco Research, however, hesitates:


    "TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: Stand aside…"


    "From open on the COMEX, gold futures largely tacked sideways…While some spec buying provided lift, two-way action between banks stymied further gains until a flourish near close took August gold to session highs…August gold will need to establish above 400 to maintain momentum; we like its chances…Support basis August at 400 and then 399. Resistance at 405" (JB emphasis)


    Given the huge open interest increase yesterday, it is clear the massive seller was just bodily pushed back through the moving averages (no doubt there is an American football analogy here somewhere). This is a familiar situation: what seems unusual here is the determination of the buyers, particularly today. One notes that the Dubai kilo bar premium continues very high.


    In view of the open interest data now available, this tends to support the presence of a peculiarly motivated seller. A noted bullion dealer presents some interesting charts of Comex seat prices, gold and gold share prices. These, carefully inspected, suggest that there is a divergence of opinion developing between Western hemisphere opinion (reflected in shares and seat prices, and bullion itself (reflecting presumably a more global investment constituency).


    If there is a manager in the gold price, he needs to act.


    JB


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Due to a reshuffling of some indexes the DOW lost 72 to 10,371 (42 points of that was on the bell). The DOG gained 10 to 2025.


    The dollar closed up .19 to 89.22 and the euro slipped .07 to 121.43.


    US economic news of the day:


    08:30 Q1 GDP (final) reported 3.9% vs. consensus 4.4%
    Price Deflator reported 2.9% vs. consensus 2.6%. Prior readings were 4.4% and 2.6%, respectively. ***


    Quick analysis from http://www.streetaccount.com:


    08:35 Q1 GDP revised lower, deflator higher
    This has to be considered old news given that Q2 is now drawing to a close. The downward revision to GDP and upward revision to the deflator represents a negative mix of news for the market, as it indicates that a larger chunk of nominal growth was attributable to inflation than previously thought. Nevertheless, these shifts are not particularly large and the focus has shifted to Q2/Q3. There was a slight negative reaction in both equities and bonds: S&P futures +0.6 vs fair value; 10-year note (2/32) to yield 4.65%. ***



    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    Today the Federal reserve added $3 Billion in tomos (Temporary repurchase
    agreements), this action upped the repo pool to $44.77 Billion and kept the linear up slope of support for the DOW on track with its Labor Day 11,750 "Get GWB re-elected" target. There are very few expirations in the future today and this suggests that we may be in store for a bunch on new repos to fill in.


    There is a coincidence with the Iraq "hand over" and the associated violence and the Fed's FOMC meeting that we should carefully watch because the Iraq stories will inevitably push any Fed mischief off the media front pages.


    Last week I suggested privately that gold would go up until Friday. At the time I was not aware that the esteemed Mahendra had also issued a similar view. Other experts are also suggesting that a large move may be in store for the dollar and hence, gold. It must be a coincidence that these observations all meet today so it wouldn't be a bad idea to step aside before the FOMC meeting and let any interest rate fireworks pass. Indeed in the late 70's a currency trader friend of mine (CitiBank's main GB Pound trader) said that the only rules he followed was to never be in the market after the floor closed or when the Fed met.


    I will be traveling next week so my commentary may be delayed as I will be using a dial-up service and an alien computer.
    Mike


    Inflation in the US continues to be undereported, from The King Report:


    Yesterday’s WSJ reports "Tuition Increases to Slow Down." The average public university tuition will increase 9 to 10% this year, down from last year’s 14% hike. Private universities will increase 6%. BLS has tuition +7% y/y. Considering that there are far more students in public universities at 14% than private at 6%, we can assume that BLS hedonically adjusted this cost lower due to the great gains in the quality of education, probably due to the digital revolution that allows students to play far more video games and more easily do research on the web, as well as garner term papers. And phones can now televise tests to others; and there is numeric messaging to enhance test performance. Oh, and students can participate in off-shore gambling, particularly Texas Hold Em poker, which is charged to a credit card. We have personal experience with this.


    -END-

    Chuck checks in:


    I think that today is very positive considering the size of the jump yesterday, that it is a Friday and that the dollar is up. Obviously, there has been a shift in direction and that the metals and shares are washed out. The eerie quiet indicates to me that buyers will have to pay up for any new positions and size.


    Whatever is decided next week by the Fed will merely be an excuse for gold to move up. The rest of the year should be very good and dynamic for the Midas people. Unless they are sold out. Chuck


    Dan Norcini’s take on the COT Report:


    Hi Bill:
    Couple of quick comments in regards to the commitments data.


    The Commitments of Traders is really old news this week since the major development that occurred yesterday, namely gold taking out $400 on a closing basis as well as the important moving average levels that my recent essay detailed, is not reflected in this release since it is only covers through Tuesday of this week. What occurred yesterday is far more significant from a technical standpoint than what occured through Tuesday.


    As a matter of fact, open interest could very well have bottomed this week judging from the huge increase that occured during yesterday's session in which over 11,000 new positions were put on. With major technical resistance levels crumbling in yesterday's rally, funds who were short were covering and new fund longs were piling on. That no doubt leaves the bulk of the new sellers as our "friends" the cartel.


    The fund short category skedaddled as expected since gold violated the 10 and 20 day moving average levels Thursday of last week (June 17) which was their initial signal to lighten up on the short end. That was also an initial signal for the long funds to add on. Yesterdays violation of the 100 day and 200 day moving averages was another signal.


    Commercials continue to liquidate both longs and shorts. Again, we should see the commercial short category increase in next week's release since Goldman was capping the action this week and no doubt are representative of the cartel in that capacity since any other entitites that firm might represent would be trading from a technical perspective which has now turned decidedly bullish.


    As I was reading across the report, I was mentally adding in my mind the number of net buys that took place for each category for a quick initial impression:


    funds - 10,782


    commercials - 2,667


    There was net buying in both the large spec category and the commercial category.


    My first thought was, "who in the heck did they buy from? Who was selling this thing? Tell me it is not the specs." Unfortunately for them - that is the only category left. These small specs have no doubt been drinking the purple Kool-Aid of the Prechterites and rest of the near perma-bear gold advisors. The poor dupes sold a whopping 13,449 contracts since last Tuesday's release when gold made a low of $383 that day before finally closing at $388.70. All I can say is "OUCH". Talk about selling the bottom in quantity. Gold rallied a bit more than $20 off of the low since then handing these guys some very hefty losses ($2,000 per contract if they sold the bottom at $383 and then got out at yesterday's high). I do not expect to see them back for some time when they will no doubt be buying the top this time around.


    I can tell you that I receive plenty of emails from this camp out there with their gloom and doom scenario for gold and how the gold price is going to collapse all the way to $325, etc. My response is the same to all of them. I tell them that I hope that they are short and putting their money where their mouth is. I guess these are the guys who are now buying it all back and hopefully learning a few things in the process.


    Now we wait to see how the financial alchemists will attempt to turn paper into gold next week at the FOMC meeting for the next clue as to where we will go from here.


    One thing is certain, barring some out of nowhere interest rate increase greater than 25 basis points, the technical posture of the gold market has changed with the two successive closes over $400 and the major moving averages. Funds will now be looking to buy dips.
    Dan Norcini
    dnorcini@earthlink.net


    Gold enemy NUMBER ONE speaks out:


    WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - Financial markets are underestimating the extent of the threat posed by U.S. fiscal and current account deficits, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Thursday.


    "We are facing a horrendously serious problem," Rubin, who served as Treasury chief under Bill Clinton from 1995 to 1999, told a conference run by the bipartisan Concord Coalition.


    "I think that the probability is high, though not certain, that at some point the kinds of deficits we see will have very serious effects on our markets and our economy."


    The U.S. current deficit hit a record high in the first quarter of 2004 at 5.1 percent of the size of the U.S. economy. The budget shortfall is expected to top $400 billion this year, surpassing a record $374 billion in 2003.


    Many economists associate large, long-term deficits with low levels of private investment, high interest rates and weak economic growth. In April, the International Monetary Fund cited the U.S. budget and current account deficits as a risk to strong global growth.


    Still, Rubin said bond markets were largely complacent about future U.S. deficit dangers.


    "Markets have a tendency not to worry about what's not pretty much in front of them," he said.


    "This has no timing one can predict. It has no way to quantify it. It doesn't fit into the model people use for forecasts. For all those reasons, people tend to pay much less attention to it than is warranted."


    Treasury Secretary John Snow has said that, while the budget deficit is too large, the Bush administration's plan to cut it in half over five years would restore it "to a level below the 30-year average in terms of the size of our economy."


    Peter Fisher, former Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance under George W. Bush, told the conference that bond markets were too fixated on near-term deficit expectations.


    As budget deficits are expected to decline modestly in the next few years, Fisher said markets were unlikely to concern themselves with longer term risks.


    "While we have this path ... I don't think we should expect the bond traders of the world to ring the warning bell for us," he said. "I fear that the bond market will react too slowly."


    -END-


    Rubin was gold enemy number one, Fisher was NUMBER TWO!


    This one sounds good to me. From http://www.Halfpasthuman.com


    Silver (as bullion) to go to $14 per ounce by 2 days before Thanksgiving.


    On what?


    Well, about a decade ago I produced software for reading which had the side benefit of aiding children with reading difficulties. One of the purchasers was a Russian gentlemen who got it for his daughter. We have maintained touch ever since. He is in the "specialty melt's business" as he calls it. No, it doesn't mean that he produces cheese based sandwiches, rather that his company refines and melts metals for all sorts of specialized purposes. Some of the many things that they produce are silver plated or pure silver awards and plaques. They also recover silver for people (dis-hoarding). One of my tovarisch's comments recently is that if the premiums that the 'big boys' (larger bullion companies) are paying for silver are put into a spreadsheet and charted out to the end of the year, it shows that an ounce will reach $14 (wholesale) before Thanksgiving. Now his opinion is that the big boys are just starting to ramp up the incentives to deliver silver and that the rate of increase itself will increase such that silver hits 14 an ounce before September, however, my comrade-in-thinking here is optimistic as he has, as he puts it, "my ass firmly planted on a small chair of recovered argentum". But, as he also notes, one would be a 'fool to bail out the shorts at anything less than triple digits', so he will be sitting on his chair for a little while longer it seems. The real point is the 'echo' that is occurring throughout the production side of silver that the 'shortage is on'. Prices for any specialty product based on silver are rising daily and availability is declining rapidly.


    -END-


    That confirms what I have been hearing for months now and passed on your way.


    The gold shares were subdued with the XAU dropping .12 to 88.44 and the HUI gaining .42 to 194.30.


    Whatever gold and silver do in the weeks ahead, this is NOT a time to be too cute. The precious metals historic investment opportunity of a lifetime has been upon us for 3 years now. During that time we have seen significant moves up and down. We have gone through euphoria and despair. The months ahead are going to take us to another euphoric stage. Therefore, it is time to be fully invested and accumulate what we can on all dips. You don’t want to be on the sidelines when our gold/silver super-train leaves the station!


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

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    Msg #
    From: GATAComm@a...
    Date: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:30 pm
    Subject: Reg Howe: The gold and silver price suppression schemes are the same


    ADVERTISEMENT
    8:25a ET Monday, June 28, 2004


    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:


    GATA consultant Reginald H. Howe, co-editor with
    Robert K. Landis of GoldenSextant.com, has
    studied the latest gold and silver derivatives
    reports from the Bank for International
    Settlements and has made some important findings:


    1) There was a huge increase in bank and dealer
    gold derivatives for the six months ended December
    31, 2003.


    2) Producer hedging is just a small part of not
    only gold derivatives but also silver derivatives,
    and as producer hedging has declined, hedging by
    banks and dealers has increased.


    3) The two largest U.S. commercial bank holders of
    gold derivatives are responsible for nearly all
    silver derivatives.


    4) The math adds up to a coordinated scheme by
    central banks to suppress not just the gold
    price but the silver price too.


    5) China is likely involved in the scheme through
    swaps of silver for gold.


    Here's more crucial data you won't read about in
    The New York Times or the Financial Times or at
    MineWeb.com.


    Howe's commentary is titled "Hard Money Markets:
    Climbing a Chinese Wall of Worry" and uses charts
    created by GATA consultant Mike Bolser. You can
    find it here:


    http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary28.html#anchor368619


    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


    ----------------------------------------------------


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    ----------------------------------------------------

    June 28 - Gold $400.60 down $1.50 – Silver $5.88 down 22 cents


    Gold Has Its $6 Rule, The S&P Its "Volume Bomb"


    People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and, if they can't find them, make them. ...George Bernard Shaw, "Mrs. Warren's Profession" (1893) act II


    The tedium of the modus operandi of The Gold Cartel drags on. When I awoke, gold was 50 cents higher and the euro was .30 lower with the dollar generally higher. Economic news surfaced at 8:30 EDT showing US consumer spending outpacing consumer income by a fair amount. The dollar weakened with the euro taking off. Gold shot up, climbing almost $3 on the session.


    Goldman Sachs had stopped gold at the $402 to $403 area on the surge on Thursday and made sure bullion did not exceed that level on Friday. Today’s sudden pop, after a surge of physical and spec buying, forced Goldman to call in their cavalry to take gold down after the London PM Fix, which came in at $404.25.


    Once again, we see gold making its highs for the day in the US during the first hour and then clobbered after the physical market buying was priced for the day on the PM Fix. The percentage of times gold does so on the Comex defies the laws of probability in relation to how other markets trade. As usual, you will find no one in the establishment gold world asking why this keeps happening. It’s just par for the course when it comes to the bullion dealer crowd. Their credibility as far as analysis goes is poor and waning.


    Assisting in the waning direction is Reg Howe’s latest superb piece, a must read for all those who want to get a true handle on what is going on in the gold and silver markets. You can find it here:


    http://www.goldensextant.com/


    June 28, 2004 (RHH). Hard Money Markets: Climbing a Chinese Wall of Worry


    ***


    There are some points in Reg’s discourse of particular interest which are brought to your attention below with my comments following:


    "On May 14, 2004, the Bank for International Settlements released its regular semi-annual report on the OTC derivatives of major banks and dealers in the G-10 countries for the period ending December 31, 2003 (http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0405.htm). The total notional value of all gold derivatives rose to $344 billion from $304 billion as of June 30, 2003. Translated into estimated tonnes, these figures are shown in the chart below by Mike Bolser, together with the breakdown between forwards and swaps ($154 billion versus $134 billion at June 30) and options ($190 billion versus $169 billion at June 30) as reported in table 22A of the June issue of the BIS Quarterly Review (http://www.bis.org/press/p040614.htm)."


    This is a clear cut example why the mainstream gold world has lost its credibility as to their explanations of the gold market. GFMS and their surrogates fully acknowledge the gold producers lifted their hedges dramatically the last half of last year. They also have said for years the gold derivatives positions are mostly tied to the activity of the gold producers. Yet, when confronted with the fact that the gold derivatives leaped $40 billion worth in the last half of 2003 (13%), with gold producer hedging dropping dramatically, they say nothing! They arrogantly refuse to acknowledge the reality there is a clandestine operation out there to keep the gold price from rising.


    "Also shown in tonnes are the gold derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks as reported through March 31, 2004, by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm). Held almost entirely by J.P. Morgan Chase, HSBC Bank USA and Citibank (see second chart below), the total notional value of these gold derivatives has held fairly steady at around $80 billion for the past three quarters while HSBC has moved solidly into the number two position behind JPM and ahead of Citi."


    JP Morgan Chase fired its two senior gold analysts a couple of years ago now and has not replaced them as far as I know. Why haven’t their gold derivatives positions on their books collapsed by now with gold producers, such as Barrick Gold aggressively buying back their hedges?


    "As explained in Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate (12/04/2002), updated in Not Your Father's Gold Market (6/15/2003), a pretty good proxy for the total net short physical position in gold is the total notional value of forwards and swaps as reported by the BIS and converted into tonnes, which as of year-end stood at 12,687 tonnes according to Mike's calculation, an amount equal to almost half of total official gold reserves as reported by the International Monetary Fund."


    Mike’s 12,867 short position fits perfectly with the work of Reg Howe, Frank Veneroso and James Turk that the total amount gold left in the central banks is less than half of the 32,000 tonne figure normally bandied about. This short position does not include Switzerland’s sale of 1,600 tonnes of gold, England’s sale of 400 tonnes, Portugal's sales this past year, etc., nor does it include gold derivatives outside of the G-10 central banks.


    "As discussed in Targeting the Gold Cabal with Silver Bullets (2/17/2004), any effort to support the dollar by suppressing gold prices would also seem to require a parallel suppression of silver prices. With its own reasons for wanting a strong dollar, China had an obvious motive for mobilizing its silver stocks to assist in the scheme, and all the evidence suggests that its role became increasingly vital with each annual decline in other world inventories. A more interesting question, however, is presented by the data indicating that the Chinese have supplied large quantities of physical metal through leasing or swaps rather than outright sales."


    Without using Reg’s sophisticated analysis, it has been my oft-stated opinion for 5 ½ years now that the silver price was suppressed for just the reason Reg states. You couldn’t suppress the gold price and have silver at $10 an ounce. While GATA has the goods on The Gold Cartel on gold, it was always a mystery how they were doing the same in silver.


    However, it seems to me we have an intriguing development coming VERY soon in silver. Earlier this year MIDAS reported the Chinese had tied up 75% of the 2005 silver supply via a complex derivatives operation. There were also reports of Chinese buying of silver as well as selling by other Chinese. I also reported that buying silver in size was near impossible and that we might get a squeeze in March, or even May. That call looked pretty good until April. Silver soared to $8.46, then collapsed.


    Without dealing with the collapse at the moment, it seems to me we are coming to a moment of truth again for the silver shorts. There is smoke surfacing again about the Chinese on the buy side. It is very conceivable the Chinese lent out their silver for various reasons. It also tells me they have to know all about the precious metals price suppression scheme just as the Russians acknowledged at the LBMA conference in Moscow in early June. With the Russians letting the gold world know they understand what has occurred, it won’t be long before the investment world realizes what has happened – and that more than half of the central bank gold is not there anymore and that the world’s major silver supplies have just about been exhausted.


    The Chinese, being the ones who probably have held down the silver price, must realize what is going to happen when their silver supply dries up, since the market is in such a deficit. There is no additional supply to meet this supply/demand deficit.


    There is a very good chance the Chinese will turn buyers in the weeks and months to come. What do the shorts do if the Chinese ask for their leased silver back on top of any buying they might do? What is going to happen next year with 75% of the world’s silver supply is already tied up?


    The potential for silver to explode from these levels, really explode, is very high.


    The silver move higher during the first quarter was the first indication of what is to come. For whatever reason, the timing was just not right. What was not right then, could be very right in the third quarter.


    Comex is the last bastion, or source, of major silver supply in the world. If those stocks begin to steadily drop in the weeks and months ahead, get ready for $14 to $20 silver within the next year!


    The gold open interest rose 1240 contracts to 232,909, while the silver open interest rose 882 contracts to 91,979.


    Silver was the tip off today that gold would not hold its early gains. With gold still up $2.50, silver went negative and led the way down.


    The gold weekly suggests gold should be bought on breaks:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

    The John Brimelow Report


    Interesting CFTC & FX data: Strange from BIS


    Monday, June 28, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.60, PM $1.46, with world gold at $401.60 and $404. Below, and well below, legal import point. India is clearly not an importer at present.


    Shanghai Gold Exchange prices are also well below world gold, although volume seems to have picked up. A weekend report from the Gulf, however, suggest kilo bar there was still at an appreciable premium.


    Although Japanese futures traders are said to be mildly interested in gold’s recent firmness, this is hardly discernable from the trading statistics. Volume slipped 25% to equal only 25,230 Comex lots, the active contract closed unchanged and world gold stood 35c below the NY close at the end. Open interest was static (up 89 Comex lots). (NY on Friday traded 31,408 lots: open interest rose modestly, by 1,240 contracts.)


    The CFTC data, released on Friday afternoon, has stimulated unusual interest. For one thing the rise in the gold price was not associated with a sizable net spec long increase. UBS says:


    "Net long positions increased by only 50koz to 7.86Million ounces, which is entirely consistent with the very small changes in Comex Open Interest seen during the week. Yet gold rallied $6/oz, clearly indicating that there was some other buying around. Our best guess would be OTC fund buying although a producer buy-back or even a large purchase from a central bank is possible (if somewhat unlikely)."


    For some reason, they do not mention the obvious possibility: heavy Middle Eastern off take (although it will be remembered that gold in mid-June got low enough for India and reportedly the Far East to do some buying also).


    Another perspective on this is that, since the option and futures spec net long on April 6 (of 701 tonnes!) there has been 450 tonnes of liquidation and gold is only $20 lower. Once again, the identity of the buyer here is an interesting question.


    Prospector Asset Management’s Leonard Kaplan, who lays heavy emphasis on the sociology of CFTC data, has a usefully different view:


    "In an event VERY RARELY seen in this market, large speculative concerns were the major buyers …accommodated by the most unlikely segment of the marketplace, the small short speculator. …it must be interpreted that the large increase in the position of the small short spec must be considered as a most bullish signal… small speculators who seem to never get it right. And, in fact, so far they have not as gold has rallied some $7 from the close of the reporting period."


    "…I must believe that, overall, the changes in ownership of contracts MUST be considered bullish…now we are some $7 higher, and certainly the nature of the market has changed. Since we sit at higher prices, I would devalue the bullishness of these statistics, but will still be forced to conclude that there is still considerable room for this market to go higher... I would imagine that a market move above the $407/$408 level would be enough to force the small shorts out of the market."


    (Small specs sold short 13,500 contracts June 15-22)


    Since last Tuesday, of course, further rises in gold have been associated with a sizable increase in open interest, suggesting that technically driven CFTC traders are starting to be involved. Who the resolute seller is not discussed: that there is one can be inferred from Refco Research’s cautious decision


    "Sell 4 $385 August gold puts @ mkt. Risk futures close under $390."


    Which is of course a bet that gold will not go down, rather than it will go up.


    Turning to Macro-economic matters, Reuters this morning carried a striking report:


    BIS-Asian c. banks could accumulate more reserves


    "BASEL, Switzerland, June 28 (Reuters) - An economic adviser to the Bank for International Settlements said on Monday Asian central banks could continue to accumulate currency reserves…" Clearly what happens is that reserves that have been built up in Asia are accumulating at an unprecedented degree…" BIS economic adviser Bill White said in a press conference. " …What we would worry about I suppose...is… they might generate in their own economies worries either about inflation or asset price bubbles and kinds of misalignment," ."


    "In the 18 months to March 2004, Asian reserve holdings rose by $780 billion to $2.156 trillion, an increase of almost 57 percent."
    (JB emphasis)


    Thoughts which arise from this amazing story are:


    1. Obviously, reserve accumulation at this staggering pace has to reflect huge undervaluation of the Asian currencies involved.


    2. Why are not "we" concerned about what this is doing to the competing industries in the Trade partner nations?
    3. What kind of quid quo pros have been arrived at between the various Central Banks and Governments involved to sustain this historically unprecedented situation?


    With this perspective, Reg Howe’s latest discussion of the renewed mysterious build up in Gold Derivatives of major banks, as reported to the BIS, becomes, even more than usual, mandatory reading for serious students of gold. Howe advances the interesting view that the equally strange build up of silver derivative exposure might be China’s contribution to this witches’ brew. See


    http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary28.html#anchor368619


    JB

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