Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Ulfur · 7. Juli 2004

Wollen´s hoffen.

Ich möchte gerne Bill Murphy hören, wenn er erklärt, daß der 10 Dollar Anstieg die 6-Dollar-Regel nicht bricht. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/images/smilies/biggrin.gif]

Hoffentlich postet osti99 wieder den Bericht.

Silbertaler · 7. Juli 2004

FocusMoney (Nr. 29, 8.7.2004, S.26-29) berichtet in seiner neuesten Ausgabe sehr umfangreich über Edelmetalle, informiert über die Entwicklung und stellt aussichtsreiche Goldproduzenten vor.

Da es keine Volltextversion online gibt, gebe ich den Inhalt hier nur auszugsweise und verkürzt wieder:

Haus-Formel: Kostete ein amerikanisches Einfamilienhaus 1980 100 Feinunzen Gold oder 67 Tsd. US-Dollar, bezahlte man vor 2 Jahren rund 600 Feinunzen (180000 US-Dollar). Ähnlich wie Anfang der 70er-Jahre scheint der Trend aber nun zu kippen. Im Tausch gegen 500 Feinunzen Gold bekommen Amerikaner derzeit ihre eigenen 4 Wände. Bald könnte das eigene Haus noch zu weit weniger Feinunzen zu haben sein.

Auf den Zusammenhang zwischen Dollar und Gold wird auch verwiesen. Nach Ansicht von Analysehäusern wie Merill Lynch könnte der Kurs wieder auf 1,3 Dollar je Euro fallen. Dies und auch der Vertrauensverlust in die Papierwährung Dollar würde den Goldpreis begünstigen.

Seit 2003 wird ein enormer Anstieg der Goldinvestments privater und institutioneller Anleger festgestellt (Volumen: ca. 600 Tonnen Gold). Dieser Trend hält weiter an.

Der Artikel enthält ein Dutzend aussichtsreiche Goldproduzenten, angefangen von Newmont Mining, Placer Dome, Kinross Gold bis hin zu Sino Gold und Gammon Lake Res.).

In einer besonderen Übersicht wird auf den neuen Goldrausch in Nevada eingegangen. Hier gibt es Gerüchte über erfolgreiche Bohrungen des kanadischen Goldkonzerns Placer Dome beim Cortez-Hills-Projekt in Nevada, wo ein Bohrloch auf einer Länge von 125 Meter 1,5 Unzen (46,6 gr) Gold je Tonne Gestein erreicht haben soll. Bei 4 gr. Gold je Tonne wäre eine Goldmine je nach Gesteinsart schon sehr gewinnbringend. Einige Aktien kleinerer Goldsucher, die Liegenschaften in der Nähe der Cortez-Hills-Projekt besitzen, explodierten schon, z.B. der Kurs von White Knight Ressources von 0,6 auf 1,4 kanadische Dollar bzw. der Kurs von Victoria Ressources um fast 100 Prozent. Seit rund 40 Jahren fördern Konzerne Gold im Herzen Nevadas rund um den sogenannten Carlin Trend. Bisher holten sie mehr als 50 Mio. Unzen aus dem Boden. Allein im Gebiet des Cortez-Joint-Venture, das zu 60 % Placer Dome und zu 40 % der australischen Rio Tinto gehört, sind derzeit rund 13 Mio. Unzen Goldressourcen bekannt. Es ist durchaus wahrscheinlich, dass noch ähnliche Goldvorkommen in der Mitte Nevadas schlummern. Einige kleine Explorationskonzerne wie Bullion River Gold und Nevada Pacific Gold haben sich bereits aussichtsreiche Projekte zur Erforschung gesichert. Ein gutes Bohrergebnis würde diese Aktien deutlich in die Höhe treiben. Auf Grund des hohen Risikos sollten Anleger ihr Geld auf mehrere Titel streuen und nur limitiert Kapital einsetzen. Anmerkung: Der Artikel enthält noch eine Übersicht / Beschreibung mit 8 spekulativen Goldsuchern in Nevada: White Knight Resources, Victoria Resources, Nevada Pacific Gold, Bullion River Gold, J-Pacific Gold, Coral Gold, Miranda Gold, NDT Ventures

Ferner wird in einer Rubrik auf Edelmetall-Derivate (Hebelprodukte und Zertifikate) eingegangen.

Insgesamt beobachte ich in letzter Zeit, dass das Thema Edelmetall immer öfters bei FocusMoney behandelt wird und auch die Empfehlung von Gold-/Silberaktien und anderen Bergbaukonzernen zunimmt.

Ulfur · 7. Juli 2004

Hausformel

1980 war der Höhepunkt des Goldpreises, insofern würde ich diesen Zeitpunkt nicht als geeigneten Vergleichswert ansehen.

Eine Unze Gold bleibt eine Unze Gold, jedoch verändert sich der Vergleichswert "Haus", wie sich aus einem Artikel von John Mauldin ergibt:

In 1950, the average new house was 983 square feet and cost $11,000. In 2000, the average new house was 2, 265 feet and cost $205,000. In 1950, there were 3.37 people per household, and now there is but 2.6. In 1950, only 6% of homes had a two-car garage. In 2000, 65% had two-car garages and 17% had three (or more) garage spaces.

In 1950, the average cost per square foot was $11. Today it is $91. Much of that is inflation, as inflation alone would increase prices to $76. The actual value of a square foot today is far more however. I grew up in one of those 1950 homes. No air-conditioning, one bathroom, rudimentary appliances, heating was a space heater in the main room. And three young kids and two bedrooms. I truly enjoyed my youth, but I am not nostalgic for the old homestead.

Things got better (and somewhat bigger) over time, not only for my family but for much of America

Aus
http://news.goldseek.com/Mille…veAdvisors/1089077186.php

Ulfur · 7. Juli 2004

Das ist doch alles ein Riesenschwindel!

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Oh Leser(in), liebe(r) Leser(in) ...

Wieder einmal muss ich innehalten und nach Luft schnappen. Das ist doch alles ein Riesenschwindel, schreie ich wieder einmal. Der amerikanische Kapitalismus ist – genauso wie die amerikanische Demokratie – korrupt, degeneriert und schwach geworden. Aber ich bin ein einsamer Rufer in der weiten Wildnis von Realtime-Informationen und dummem Optimismus.

Und dennoch gibt es Beweise – direkt auf den Titelseiten. "Die US-Löhne verlieren an Boden", sagen die Rocky Montain News. Die Story ist einfach – selbst Ökonomen könnten sie verstehen. Die Löhne sind in den USA in den 12 Monaten bis Mai um 2,2 % gestiegen. Die Inflation – die Konsumentenpreisinflation, also die, die die Dinge für die Leute, die Löhne erhalten, teurer macht – ist um 3,1 % gestiegen.

Ich will nur bemerken, dass 2,2 % fast 1 Prozentpunkt unter 3,1 % liegen. Also hat der amerikanische Arbeiter – von dem die gesamte Weltwirtschaft abhängig – real gesehen weniger verdient.

Findet das denn niemand ein bisschen merkwürdig? Ich meine, schließlich sollen sich die USA doch mitten in einem Aufschwung befinden. Und in jeder früheren Wirtschaftserholung sind die Löhne stark gestiegen. Diesmal sind sie gefallen.

Die Schlussfolgerung ist natürlich offensichtlich: Dieser Aufschwung ist nicht wie die vorigen Aufschwünge. Er ist wie eine Ente, die nicht schwimmen kann ... eine Giraffe ohne langen Hals ... wie ein Steuerbeamter mit Herz. Kurz gesagt: Nicht das, was es vorgibt, zu sein. Es ist überhaupt kein Aufschwung.

Was noch? Die US-Wirtschaft soll die dynamischste der Welt sein. Sie soll sowohl die Proletarier als auch die Kapitalisten reich machen. Aber keine von beiden Gruppen wird reich. In den letzten 6 Jahren haben die Investoren per saldo mit Aktien keine Gewinne erzielt. Und Dividenden? Bringen Sie mich nicht zum lachen.

Und die große amerikanische Jobmaschine ist seit 3 Jahrzehnten außer Betrieb. Seitdem ist der Reallohn nicht gestiegen! Und während der Zeit der Bush-Administration sind 1,5 Millionen Arbeitsplätze abgebaut worden. Im produzierenden Gewerbe wurden sogar 2,9 Millionen Jobs vernichtet. Aber bei Wal-Mart wurden genug neue Hilfskräfte eingestellt, so dass diese größtenteils neue Jobs gefunden haben.

William Niskanen – ein Volkswirt, dessen Namen man in den Reagan-Jahren oft hörte – schätzt, dass fallende Reallöhne für die Amerikaner in den nächsten 5 bis 10 Jahren zum Leben gehören werden. Was danach passieren wird, das sagte er nicht.

http://www.investor-verlag.de

osti99 · 7. Juli 2004

Leider ist mein Probeabo bei Lemetropolecafe gestern ausgelaufen.
ich hoffe es findet sich jemand der das für die nächsten zwei Wochen übernehmen kann.
Ist echt easy und macht keine Probleme.

Gruß
osti99

go gold, go silver

option63 · 7. Juli 2004

In Russland stürmen sie die Banken (sh. Artikel auf Titelseite) und Yahoo liegt nach den Quartalszahlen 16 Prozent im Minus.
So langsam kriegen die von uns schon lange beschriebenen Szenarien Konturen.

Silbertaler · 8. Juli 2004

Nevada Pacific Gold hat am 7.7. beim Bohrloch RRC04-07 (südlich von Carlin Trend im Herzen Nevadas) bei einer Tiefe von 290 bis 305 Fuß Ergebnisse von 0,111 Unzen Gold je Tonne und in einer Tiefe von 355 bis 445 Fuß 0,176 Unzen Gold je Tonne (in der Spitze bis zu 0,4 Unze Gold je Tonne) gemeldet !!!

Quelle: http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/ unter News

Dies bestätigt die Erwartung, dass in Nevada noch weitere Goldvorkommen liegen. Siehe hierzu auch den FocusMoney-Artikel, den ich gestern reingestellt habe !

Goldbugs500 · 10. Juli 2004

Der neue GOLD REPORT ist da.....

Goldbugs500 · 10. Juli 2004

...und auch der Silberne.....

kalle14 · 10. Juli 2004

wen es interessiert,neue Kolumne von M.Faber in der Welt!

http://www.welt.de

in der spalte "suchen" den namen faber eingeben,und schon geht`s los

schönes Wochenende

Kalle

wasserzeichen · 10. Juli 2004

Hier noch die üblichegraphische Darstellung der COT-Zahlen für Silber:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png]

Ulfur · 12. Juli 2004

osti99,
nochmals vielen Dank für die GATA Berichte. Ich kann vermutlich erst Ende August einspringen, vorher habe ich wg Urlaub etc keine zwei zusammenhängenden Wochen Zeit.

Ulfur · 13. Juli 2004

Nach einem Artikel aus mineweb produzieren 23 der 31 südafrikanischen Minen mit Verlust, das sind 78% der Minenproduktion.

Wenn es so weitergeht , sollten einige Minen schließen und so das Goldangebot vermindern. Aber tunlichst die anderen Minen. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseiten-forum.de/images/smilies/wink.gif]

Allerdings hängen die Einkommen von 1,8 Mill. Südafrikaner direkt und indirekt an der Goldproduktion ( bei einer Arbeitslosigkeit von 40%).

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/334069.htm

ageka · 14. Juli 2004

Parkettgeflüster: Run auf Gold Bullion
(Börse Berlin-Bremen) In Berlin orderten Anleger Papiere der Gold Bullion SEC (WKN 259 525). Das Unternehmen wurde vom World Gold Council gegründet, einer Vereinigung der größten Goldminen weltweit, das sich die Vermarktung und Verbreitung von Gold auf die Fahnen geschrieben hat. Mit dem Erwerb einer Gold Bullion Security (GBS) erwerben Anleger keine Aktie, sondern das Recht auf ein Zehntel Unze Goldbarren. Das gekaufte Gold wird in einem Sammeldepot bei HSBC hinterlegt

http://www.instock.de/Marktberichte/10143821.html

ageka · 14. Juli 2004

Chart

pflichtmologe · 14. Juli 2004

The James Joyce Table

Midas du Metropole

Topic du Jour

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 13 - Gold $401.70 down $6.20 – Silver $6.37 down 14 cents

Comex Silver Warehouse Stocks Drop Again

Like an old gold-panning prospector, you must resign yourself to digging up a lot of sand from which you will later patiently wash out a few minute particles of gold ore... Dorothy Bryant

GO GATA!!!!

So much for the big change in the way gold is trading. Back to the same old, same old. What tedium! While we saw a dramatic change in the way gold came back from below $400, it is déjà vu all over again when gold sets sights on the $410 level. Bullion was battered for no apparent reason last night in the Hong Kong market, dropping close to $4 right off the bat. At the time, the dollar was only slightly stronger.

The joke of the day was the attribution gold was weak because of this report:

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May for the first time in six months as exports surged to a record, led by aircraft, engines and other capital goods, a government report showed. U.S. imports also were a record.
The $46 billion gap in goods and services trade followed a record deficit of $48.1 billion in April, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The 4.5 percent reduction in the deficit in May was the largest since October 2002. –END-

A $46 billion trade deficit is heralded because it shrank. Numbers don’t seem to mean anything these days. Vet Café members have heard this one before. Six years ago the trade deficit was running around $12 billion. Goldman Sachs put out a report it could rise to $19 billion and Wall Street was horrified. A little more than half a decade later, a $46 billion number is cheered!

The dollar, which was oversold, rallied on the exhilarating trade news. By day’s end it rose .36 to 88.01. The euro fell .70 to 123.19.

The gold open interest number is whacky. Yesterday was quiet, yet the Comex reported the gold open interest rising 9009 contracts to 245,474. You have to wonder if that could be correct. If so, it is more evidence The Gold Cartel is making its stand below $410 as the specs pile in on the long side.

Houston’s Dan Norcini read my mind on this one:

Just got the open interest figures from yesterday.
The amount of firepower that the cartel is expending to keep gold under $410 is simply enormous. Another 9,000 contracts added yesterday to hold it down. All of that tremendous technically oriented fund buying was completely absorbed. What is even more staggering is viewing the increase in open interest since last Tuesday, July 6, the day gold was clobbered before rebounding so sharply and setting us up for this surge above $400. We have seen nearly 20,000 new positions added in the week since then. Without the capping action of our "friends", we would be easily be sitting above $420.
Dan

$400 to the penny was the low for the Comex session.

From a technical standpoint this sell-off changes very little.

Silver was dragged lower by gold. It sank to its key support at $6.25, where it broke out and completed its multi-month base, and then drifted back up.

The silver open interest remains very low at 87,666, rising 676 contracts.

The best news of the day was the Comex silver warehouse stocks dropped substantially for the second time in a row, this time to the tune of 514,031 ounces to 117,059,671. Two days do not make a trend or the market, but you have to start somewhere. More importantly, this is just what MIDAS has been looking for, having brought an expected drawdown for July to your attention at the beginning of the month. Could be THE CHINESE!

The silver warehouse stocks ran 103 to 108 million ounces for a long time before running up to above 120 million ounces. Should they break below 103 million ounces, silver bells and whistles will go off all over the place.

The John Brimelow Report

TOCOM, unusually, blocks rally?

Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.04, PM $6.18, with world gold at $403.80 and $402.65. Comfortably above legal import point. Premiums in the Gulf appear to be around $1 today.

Reuters carries a story today from Singapore, reporting the Far Eastern physical market has not responded well to the surge in world gold late last week, with selling from China pushing bar prices in Hong Kong to a discount for the first time in four months. This is consistent with the wide discounts which have appeared on Shanghai since last Wednesday. Premiums remain positive in Tokyo, however, at 50 -75c, supporting the impression that the Japanese physical market is diverging positively.

The real divergence in the physical world, however, is between the Middle East and Indian sub-continent which remain inclined buyers, and the Far East. There is nothing especially implausible about this, with the different regions facing different geopolitical and economic conditions, not the least of which is the Far East’s "Undervaluation Axis" which of course has the effect of making gold expensive in domestic currency terms.

TOCOM traded the equivalent of 23,478 Comex lots, +13% over yesterday. The active contract went out down 3 yen, and world gold was $3.35 below the NY close at $404.10. Open interest was static (+4 Comex). Mitsui, however estimates that there was another 10 -15 tonnes of liquidation by the Japanese public this morning, implying 40 -60 tonnes since last Wednesday (e.g. 13,000 -20,000 Comex lots) and a virtual halving since late June. These sales must have materially contributed to stopping gold’s rise, but presumably cannot be sustained, at least from this source. (NY yesterday traded 48,048 lots: open interest surged 9,009 lots to 245,474.)

HSBC has revisited its amusing calculation on the alternative reinvestments of the BOE gold sales.

100% $US $3.49B
100% Yen $3.75B
100% Euros $4.01B
Gold $5.13B

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Another listless stock market day. The DOW rose 9 to 10,248. The DOG fell another 5 to 1932.

Everything in the US is just peachy-keen according to the Fed:

1758 GMT [Dow Jones] Dallas Fed's McTeer says that while inflation is not down and out, it is certainly "on the ropes." He goes on to say that the Fed is determined to keep inflation on the run, but rate hikes are likely to be measured. In addition, there's plenty of slack in the economy, which should keep inflationary pressures contained, he said. (ATC) –END-

The market waited all day long for Intel’s second quarter results.

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp., the world's biggest semiconductor maker, said second-quarter earnings almost doubled to the highest in four years. Sales this quarter will rise to $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion.
Net income rose to $1.76 billion, or 27 cents a share, from $896 million, or 14 cents, a year earlier, Santa Clara, California-based Intel said in a statement distributed by Business Wire. Sales increased to $8.05 billion. –END-

The bottom line:

Bellwether Intel disappointed as the stock sold off 80 cents to a buck (around 4%) after the close. The DOG could be in big trouble!

BIG trouble, Intel now down as much as $1.25/$1.33 (below $25 per share) in after hours trading, as I go to press.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's "Desk" added $4 Billion in temporary
repurchase agreements today, July 13th 2004, an action that allowed the repo pool to slip very slightly to $44.327 Billion. This is still quite high by historical standards and keeps the futures buying pressure on the sluggish DOW. The 30-day moving average up trend for the repo pool and basically level for the DOW remain in place as the DOW's ma is about 700 points too low for my forecast of a Labor Day rendezvous with 11,750. There's a world of time and weird market events left before the deadline.

One hand gives...

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Fed now offers historical repo expiration data such that determined examiners can reconstruct from 2000 onward, a full repo pool record. At the same time, they did away with the 28-day temporary page reference which now makes it very cumbersome to quickly glance back to check missed expiration dates or keep a loose running total. One must now enter the desired date interval in order to get that information This is just another example of the Fed fooling around with data and procedures to
thwart scrutiny of its "monetary policy" methods.

The other takes...

Last week I commented that investors should take available speculative profits at or just below $408. With today's blast up in the dollar index and even more aggressive downdraft in the PM Fix, we see that it sometimes pays to step back whenever the Fed is in its transition game.

Today's blast is yet another "deep vee" exactly at the 10 AM eastern time which corresponds to the London PM Fixing time. Bill Murphy and many other experienced precious metals traders have noticed these deep vees or spikes upward which run to meet the 10 AM Eastern time slot.

Clearly, a dominant market force application is in work with these deep vees. Such a display of strength should be recognized for what it is...government intervention. Usually they are preceded by an overnight period of down trend followed by the deep vee or the reverse with an overnight rise and then a last minute spike to the 10AM time. Trading on this pattern is very dangerous unless of course, you are in the Fed's primary dealer's anti-gold "club".
Mike

Been a while since some of Richard Russell’s daily commentary has made it to the MIDAS column. The following was sent to me by a fellow Café member. It's vintage Richard Russell at his best:

Next, I'm going to write about a situation that has been on my mind for quite a while. It's one of the reasons why I believe this bear market is going to be a brute. Here goes --

Will unfunded liabilities ultimately bring on American's worst depression? It certainly wouldn't surprise me. Business Week this week runs a cover story in which it talks about US Corporations having built up almost a trillion dollars in unfunded pension liabilities. This is "killing" many of the older companies, who have built huge pension and medical liabilities. The low interest rates of the last few years have also hurt the pension and medical funds (for instance, think Ford, GM and the big airlines). These corporations are now facing stiff competition from new companies who do not have to deal with these liabilities.

But corporate unfunded liabilities are a drop in the bucket compared with US government's unfunded liabilities, which add up to around $45 trillion. Two books discuss this momentous issue. "The Coming Generational Storm, what you need to know about America's economic future," by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns.

Peter Peterson addresses the government's horrendous unfunded liabilities in his book, "Running On Empty." The sub-title of the book is "How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future, and What Americans Can Do About it."

Of course, we won't do much of anything about it -- until the problem hits us square in the face. There are only two solutions. One is to cut way back on Social Security and Medicare or somehow privatize them. The second solution is to print the money needed to cover these liabilities, and of course this would be wildly, and I mean WILDLY, inflationary. If this is the path we go on, the dollar would collapse, sending US interest rates through the roof -- while at the same time the economy would unravel.

As I see it, the unfunded liabilities present the basis for the next depression. I think the whole monetary system could ultimately break down in the face of this ocean of unfunded liabilities. Wait, there's such a thing as "starting all over again," and I believe there's a good chance that that's exactly what we'd have to do. Fantastic as it sounds, we might have to dump the entire current system, get rid of the Federal Reserve, and go back to what the US Constitution originally mandated. The US government would issue the money that it needs, the dollar would be backed with a specified percentage of gold, and the idea of a private central bank (the Fed) that can issue any quantity of money it wants -- would be relegated to history.

OK, honestly, I don't know how it will all work out. I do know that the US has built up massive unfunded liabilities. I do know that when you set up systems that are not funded, ultimately you either have to print the money to fund the system, change the system, or jettison the system entirely. But there's one thing that's certain -- any one of the three will entail pain -- a lot of pain.

The last two generations of Americans (people up to their mid-40s) are the only generations in US history that have never had to deal with true hard times. This length of painless era has never happened before. And I don't think most Americans say 45 or younger, can even envision what hard times are like.

What I'm afraid of is that this primary bear market, the bear market that I've been writing about since it started in late-1999, is going to end up as the mother all bear markets. It could easily be the worst bear market since the Great Depression of the '30s. Of course, what's been holding the pain at arm's length, what has kept the bear at bay -- has been debt -- the greatest build-up of debt in world history. How has this been allowed to exist?

One reason is that the dollar is the world's reserve currency. Another reason is that other nations want to continue selling to the US. Our overseas friends sell us their services and merchandise, and they pretend they're getting paid -- paid with fiat paper dollars. Our suppliers then turn around and buy up US assets with the paper dollars they receive.

It's a vast, incredible card game, with nobody yet ready to make the "call." Politicians and central bankers the world over simply hope that somehow the game can keep going. There, however, are those who believe the game will terminate somewhere ahead. These people keep their mouths shut and accumulate gold.

I've given a lot of thought about how to operate in the current environment in view of the trouble that I see coming up. Trouble that will materialize in, I don't know -- three years, five years, ten years. I really don't know -- if I had to guess, I'd guess the trouble will come within four years.

My thought is that there's no fool-proof way we can protect ourselves against what I see coming up. What will be, will be. The debt is there, the liabilities are there -- they're a fact of life. They exist, and, in fact, they're getting worse. My own thought process is to at least "act" as though the dollar will survive -- but just in case it doesn't, I'll continue to accumulate gold.

Stocks are overvalued today. Moreover, there's no yield, no income, from stocks. As I see it, there's no sense at all during a primary bear market holding dividend-less stocks that are overpriced. In the end, it's the guaranteed path to losing money. It's Wall Street's game, but it's a game that makes no sense when stocks are flagrantly overpriced, as they are today. You see, that's the awful secret that no analyst, no brokerage house, no broker will tell you. The secret is that stocks today are not priced to bring you profits; stocks today are priced to give you losses over time.

I liken buying and holding stocks today to gambling in Las Vegas. The longer you play, the surer the odds that the casino will take your money. The casino will do anything to keep you playing, simply because the casino has the odds. The longer you hold stocks today, the surer you will be building losses. Of course, Wall Street wants you to continue buying stocks, simply because that's what Wall Street survives on. Wall Street is a selling organization. That's what Wall Street does -- it sells.

My way, at this time in the cycle, is different. My way is to place a large portion of money in T-bills. A second portion of money goes toward compounding. And a third portion of money goes into gold and gold shares.

Compounding only makes sense if you do it correctly and consistently. That entails placing a certain portion of money in safe securities that pay interest or dividends. The process entails reinvesting all the interest and dividends back into other safe securities that pay interest or dividends. Top-grade municipal bonds will do.

What happens, you ask, if rates go up and the bonds go down? Answer -- the bonds still pay off at maturity, and after 20 years the compounding factor is so powerful that you can "burn" your original purchases.

Again you ask, "But what happens if we're sitting with bonds or T-notes or whatever, and the system collapses?"

My answer -- Then you rely on your gold.

But what happens if the government bans trading or even holding or selling gold?

My answer -- Why would they do that? It wouldn't make sense. But let's say the government acts stupidly (which they usually do); then we're back to what my father told me during the Great Depression. "Richard," he said, "There are only two things you can depend on. Your education, and what you have between your ears. If you have an education, and you're able to think -- you'll always be ahead of the game.." My father was right in 1935, and he'd be just as right today.

-END-

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s commentary go to http://www.dowtheoryletters.com

The gold shares continue to trade aimlessly, down again today. The XAU dropped 1.12 to 89.68 and the HUI sank 3.63 to 195.73.

If gold and silver are in as good a shape as I think they are, the prices should bounce right back up. In years past that line of thinking would have been a stretch, however the way gold soared the middle of last week, there is no reason for it not to do so again this week.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Received a membership check from CIBC World Markets. Need to know who sent it for proper application.

Hi Bill:

Paul Skarp here. I had sent e-mail to you about two weeks ago regarding my Illinois state Senate story, if you can recall as I'm sure you receive plenty of e-mail.

Amazingly, out of all the potential clients I have talked with so far only two were initially familiar with GATA and the true gold market story. What surprised me was their reaction when they realized I supported GATA as well. The funny part is the initial "feel out" stage. Like one closet nutcase trying to find another like-mined closet nutcase. That will change one day.

I try to inform as many individuals that I talk with about GATA. Additionally, I also try to educate them on Hubbert’s Peak. Normally, this is also something they never heard of. Once again, a great job by the U.S. media in covering this topic.

Witnessing the excitement these two individuals demonstrated after they found someone to do business with who was on the same "playing field" as them has got me thinking.

I don’t know if LeMetropole Café currently has any recommended commodity and bullion brokers. So, I was wondering what it would take for you to consider me as a LeMetropole Café recommended broker who supports GATA and what it is trying to accomplish.

pflichtmologe · 15. Juli 2004

The James Joyce Table

Midas du Metropole

Topic du Jour

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July 14 - Gold $405 up $3 – Silver $6.57 up 20 cents

Silver Makes Recovery High, Gold Rebounds

"If you tell a lie big enough, and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only so long as the State can shield the people from the political, economic, or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to discredit and repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the enemy of the state."
Joseph Goebbels

"An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites Statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense-perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire -- that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other."
Alan Greenspan

"Gold is not necessary. I have no interest in gold. We will build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration camp. That's the bastion of money."
Adolf Hitler

Pretty scary to me the way the US is headed. No free press, markets rigged, government data distorted for spin purposes. Meanwhile, the unsuspecting public is clueless about what is really going on in New York and Washington. Course, they just got a taste of it with the recent report on US intelligence which revealed the most instrumental rah rah reasons for going to war with Iraq were bogus. For whatever reason the American public was fed propaganda and most fell for it hook, line and sinker, just like they are being fed propaganda about what is really going on behind the scenes in the gold market.

Nazi Germany had its goons. So does the gold market. Goldman Sachs led the gold goon squad into action today as they usually do to cap rallies. As is also the norm, gold made its high within the first hour and then the bums sat on it all day long.

The gold open interest rose again, to 247,735, up 2261 contracts.

The silver action was stout. Unlike gold, silver made new highs going into the close and certainly was a key factor in stabilizing bullion, which fell nearly $4 from its early morning highs.

My gold floor source believes whoever has been stopping gold in the $406 to $408 area has done what they are going to do at those levels. They were seen going to the market this morning, which took gold back close to unchanged.

While the gold open interest has surged lately, the silver open interest is dawdling, which suggests to me the cabal shorts are nervous about taking silver on at these prices. The OI lost 504 contracts and now stands at 87,162.

The Café Sentiment Indicator remains abysmal. The Market Vane Index is modestly bullish at 75 or so, however, all this is people looking at charts and there is no way not to view the gold chart except bullish. When it comes to enthusiasm about gold, it is just not there. Look at how dismal the gold/silver share volume is. Investors seem to be bored with all the markets.

Silver is on its way to filling the giant gaps it left on the way down:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/94

There is a "buzz" among many of the pro traders on the silver floor, a "buzz" not heard in a VERY long time. With the fundamentals and technicals SO bullish, silver ought to go $7 bid very soon, and move higher from there.

The silver stocks at the Comex Warehouses dropped a healthy 590,246 ounces to 116,469,425. Going the right way.

Mahendra put out an alert to buy gold and silver during the last hour yesterday. Those who did so are smiling today. Whatever he’s smoking, it works.

An FBI report leaked to Time concerning the vulnerability of western oil terminals helped to spur crude oil which soared to $40.97 per barrel, up $1.53. Also contributing to the price rise was a Korean tanker refusing to load oil out Iraq. Second time that has happened in a week.

August crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/84

The CRB soared 4.51 points to 274.66, led by the oil complex.

The dollar fell .25 to 86.75 and the euro rose .51 to 123.70.

The John Brimelow Report

Important Bullish data from India

Wednesday, July 14 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.09, PM $5.30. A bit tight, and adequate, for legal imports. The rupee unhelpfully softened to a two-week low today.

India’s Economic Times published an important article on India’s gold imports today (second attachment). It confirms, as asserted here at the time based on the behaviour of the observable premiums, that the price break in Q2 2004 triggered huge Indian buying (India has a March 31 Financial Year end):

"Explained by analysts as largely a function of the growing perception of gold as a credible investment rather than the recent relaxation of import norms, bullion imports by all major trading companies and designated banks rose in the first three months of ’04-05. …recent imports have broken all previous records by a huge range... Gold imports by MMTC, traditionally the biggest importer of the metal, surged 284% to over Rs 3,263 crore in the first quarter of ’04-05, from Rs 850 crore in the corresponding period of ’03-04. Imports by State Trading Corporation (STC) jumped by more than 200% in the first quarter to Rs 2,900 crore…The import of gold by other bulk importers — Handloom & Handicrafts Export Corporation and Project & Equipment Corporation — closely followed the trend. Retail importers also saw imports rise, although the momentum was slower than that of the bulk importers, sources said."

The report helpfully gives the tonnages involved for MMTC – 61.3 tonnes for the quarter, up 234% from 10 tonnes the previous year. By implication, STC imported about 54.5 tonnes, up from 18.2 tonnes in 2004.

As the article says, there was no further liberalization in import regulations or duty rates this year, and of course prices were higher. India’s demand schedule for gold simply seems to have shifted favourably. The Venerosian wealth effect seems to work, in India at least! Predictions like the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s yesterday that gold will slide below $350 this year are difficult to credit, given this type of appetite.

Selling pressure during Japanese hours stopped today. Volume on TOCOM fell 33% to equal only 15,626 Comex lots, the active contract rose 4 yen, and world gold stood $2 higher than the NY close at the end. Open interest rose the equivalent of 1,088 Comex contracts. (Yesterday 58,017 contracts traded in NY; open interest rose 2,261 lots.)

Macquarie Bank was in no doubt as to the culprit for yesterday’s weakness:

"Gold was relentlessly sold from the open by a Japanese trading house in Asia today. Some support was found initially around the $405.00 level… but continued selling by the same Japanese player, eventually saw $405.00 give way…A small bounce was seen early London following the sharp retreat in Asia, this rally proved short lived as traders still caught long by the Japanese dealer selling during the day, offloaded their positions. Follow through offering was seen."

The question is, of course, for whom the Japanese outfit was acting. While it is not implausible that some liquidation by Japanese individuals occurred because of the higher $US price and apprehensions of a stronger yen, inspection of the TOCOM member’s position data indicates that virtually the entire contraction was in Mitsui’s position, with the other houses remaining steady. This strongly suggests a Fund (quite possibly not Japanese) seller was at least partially to blame.

Probably of greater future significance, Monday’s almost incredible 9000 lot open interest increase has been followed, as noted above, by another rise yesterday of a respectable 7 tonnes. In aggregate, the gold price has done little. Refco Research smells a rat:

"…the large gain in open interest +9000 contracts on Monday’s minor gain in price is sobering—either there’s a substantial diversity of opinion among the specs on gold’s outlook or some determined commercial selling (our belief)."

A number of the Bullion Bank commentators have been muttering about resistance at $408-10. Probably the dogged seller who fought so hard to hold gold below the 200 day moving average has found a new line to defend. With India in this posture and Gulf premiums consistently above $1 today, the physical market looks likely to challenge this. Certainly there has been extremely resolute buying recently.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW rallied late, as is so often the case, yet still closed down 39 to 10,208. The DOG continues to disappear, falling another 17 to 1915.

For weeks now the US economic news has disappointed. Today was no different:

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales fell 1.1 percent in June, the biggest drop since February of last year, underscoring forecasts for slower consumer spending in the second quarter.

Last month's decline, which reflected a drop in spending at automobile dealerships and department stores, followed a revised 1.4 percent increase in May, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent drop. Excluding vehicles and parts, sales fell 0.2 percent after rising 0.9 percent a month earlier.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Fed added a total of $5.398 in open market operations today July 14th 2004, an action that kept the upward pressure on the repo pool which now sits at $45.725 Billion. The DOW's 30-day ma (Green trace) wavers at the top of a mini-peak but well below my predicted target path. Even at this weak position, the DOW shares are still much better off than the market at large as noted by Sol Palha in "A Deeper Look At The Markets", nearby at the café. Indeed, his report recognizes the premise that the DOW has been artificially supported, something I've been reporting for well over a year.

Government intervention involves strategic commodities and financial indexes
that they deem to be in the national interest. These commodities and indexes are too big and important to fail. This seems to be the Fed's moral justification for steering otherwise free markets. In the process of force application against a normal trend, the Fed has created an ever increasing instability that will inevitably lead to failure. This failure may not come in the form of a DOW "crash" or a bond market rout as many expect, more likely the destruction will show up elsewhere, perhaps in the currency itself as concerned investors realize the true value of precious metals and
quietly act to exchange pieces of government colored paper for real assets, assets that have no corresponding liability.

More on silver

As noted yesterday, I have expanded my chart gallery site at
http://www.pbase.com/gmbolser/root

to include several other metrics of interest to precious metals followers. The dollar index value of silver
(DIVS) is one of these new metrics. Of importance is the fact that the DIVS has tracked differently from the DIVG thus proving that the suppression mechanism for silver is different from that used to control gold. The gold control mechanism has numerous supply depots in willing central banks from which to draw metal needed to keep the price down but the supply situation with silver is far different.

The fact that the DIVS got so far out of hand tells us that the number of players, needed physical delivery throughput and remaining stocks of silver are under great stress. Even though the COMEX publishes their "warehouse inventories" data one should not be lulled into thinking that this is the real inventory from which growing silver demand is met.

There is clearly another inventory (Suspected to be China). An out-of-control DIVS is ample evidence that the real silver inventory was temporarily withheld or perhaps exhausted altogether and a rush search was begun to fill physical demand. There was and still is an unusual delay in receiving delivery of quantity silver orders. Perhaps the seller of last resort was Mexico? We don't know. We DO know that there are now heavy Mexican trucks rolling across American highways. What a coincidence!
Mike

The oil news:

Oil ends near $41 on fresh supply risks
Reports show crude stocks fall; readings on gas mixed

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude-oil futures climbed 4 percent to close at a six-week high near $41 a barrel, lifted by threats to global supplies from terror concerns, debt woes at Russia's Yukos, violence in Iraq and a hefty drop in U.S. crude inventories.

The closing prices for the energy futures were a far cry from the price declines in gasoline and heating oil and the directionless trading that crude suffered from earlier in the day, following contradictory data on U.S. gasoline supplies and higher distillates stocks.

Crude for August delivery rose $1.53 to close at $40.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It's the contract's highest close since June 1, when futures prices ended above $42 at their loftiest level ever recorded. Late in the session, the contract climbed as high as $41.05.

Meanwhile, crude-product prices weren't quite settled. August unleaded gasoline was up 3.22 cents, or 2.5 percent, at $1.3175 a gallon. August heating oil was at $1.094, up 3.23 cents, or 3 percent.

"The concern from the Russian front is that exports are slowing, OPEC is near capacity, and we are not making any significant gains on inventories that are outpacing demand," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

And "the uncertainties over Iraq's ability to export needed supplies is one of the main catalysts that keeps oil prices firm," Person said. A car bomb exploded near the headquarters for the interim Iraqi government in Baghdad Wednesday, killing at least 10 people. See CBS News for more.

But Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago, said a published report that points to a possible attack on U.S. energy facilities may be a key cause for oil's price rise.

Time magazine's online edition reported Wednesday that a classified intelligence bulletin from the FBI sent to local law enforcement agencies last week noted a potential terrorist threat to the U.S. energy infrastructure. See Time.com.

Flynn added that there was also speculation on the trading floor that oil tankers were refusing to fill oil at the Iraqi port of Basra because of security concerns.

After the mixed supply reports, "the bottom line is that supplies are very tight and any thought of a terrorist attack that could disrupt any part of the energy industry could have a bullish effect on prices," he said…..

-END-

Chuck checks in:

The central news, to me, is coming in the stock markets. I believe they are holding by the proverbial thread. If Intel's action had been able to spread to the rest of the markets, we might have had a severe squall, but either because of the "invisible hand" or the lack of logical connective prowess of the investors, the markets acted as though Intel's sharp drop through major support was unrelated to their decisions which is basically buy and hold and then buy again. One day soon it will be just bye, bye. The rounding top and collapsing wedge formations in all of the world's major markets is ready to change to a different formation, most likely a waterfall or just an old fashion plunge. Even with the daily weakening in virtually all of the sectors, sentiment remains unperturbed and historically unseen. Still about 17% bears in the Investors Intelligence (I still think that Investors Intelligence is the ultimate oxymoron.)

Because gold moves historically against the stock market, I am not disappointed in the lethargic action in the gold shares. Their apathetic action is the flip side of the unconcern towards regular stocks. If no one is selling stocks, why should they be interested in gold shares? This will change when it is obvious that we are no longer in a never-ending bull market. Reality is about to set in. Patience not concession is the motto for the gold gang. We are in the earliest phase of this move. I am of the belief that when gold goes up, other commodities will drop. We should be on the alert for relative strength against not only the stock market but also commodities.

In the meantime, the relentless slowing down of the economy should begin to influence the stock market. It is only going to take a small amount of selling to force the market down and nasty. With the insiders continuing to sell at such a enormous rate, the sentiment staying at such a high point, and mutual fund cash near record levels, the primary question is "who is left to buy?" Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com

GATA’s Ed Steer on the late HUI dump:

Hi Bill,
This must have been a coordinated sell-off in the gold shares. Who in their right mind would be doing this with what's going on right now? Especially with oil and the CRB up big time. Nope, this was deliberate.
Ed

The gold share action is horrendous. The XAU only managed a .32 gain, while the pitiful HUI closed unchanged. Could this be the quiet before the storm? Sure feels that way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

osti99 · 15. Juli 2004

Hallo pflichtmologe,

toll dass sich jemand gefunden hat der die Lemetropolecafe-Berichte wieder reinstellt.

Vielen dank dafür.

Gruß

osti99

pflichtmologe · 16. Juli 2004

The James Joyce Table

Midas du Metropole

Topic du Jour

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 15 - Gold $403.60 down $1.40 – Silver $6.63 up 6 cents

Silver Continues To Lead The Way Higher

Worry a little bit every day and in a lifetime you will lose a couple of years. If something is wrong, fix it if you can. But train yourself not to worry. Worry never fixes anything...Mary Hemingway
GO GATA!!!

Yesterday’s mysterious HUI sell-off near the bell was the tip off The Gold Cartel was preparing to attack bullion this morning. They did just that. Gold came in flat and was then trounced on US economic numbers which were anything but stellar. The euro dropped around .20 and the cabal used that as their cue to stomp on gold, taking it $4 lower. The Gold Cartel folks and allies took out stops and then began to cover.

Depending on how you look at it, they did not get much bang for their buck. The fly in the ointment was silver which refused to follow gold’s lead down. Silver quickly popped higher, rising 10 cents and dragged gold off its early suppressed lows as it climbed all the way back to unchanged+.

A better than expected Philly Fed manufacturing report was released at noon EDT, which put a further bid into the dollar and the shorts pressed their gold case for the second time during the session. Gold sank again, yet found solid support on the break.

The gold open interest surged once more yesterday. This time it rose 6047 contracts to 254,213. We know the funds have been buyers, as is cited by market commentators. What these commentators don’t ever tell us who is selling and why. It’s not the producers, who on balance are covering. So who is it that is nullifying all the recent fund buying? The Gold Cartel of course. Clearly, they are doing all they can to keep gold from taking out the $410 area.

Houston’s Dan Norcini notes:

Hi Bill:
Someone took a big position in the February '05 gold contract yesterday. Have you heard anything from your source Bill on who that was? Better than a 2,000 contract increase in here. A bit odd since total open interest in Feb 05 is a bit over 6,000 total.

The way open interest is increasing we will be at 270,000 by next week's end easily. I know I said it yesterday but I am stunned by the amount of determined selling taking place this time around.

If I can get some time I will look into this rate of increase and compare it with last October's rally into the high at $430 by year's end.
Best,
Dan

The two short-term keys to gold’s price are the physical market (can it absorb the cabal selling?) and silver. Silver continues to trade like a race horse which wants to gallop, only to be restrained by its bit, which is in this case a capped gold price.

The silver open interest rose 1648 contracts to 88,810. The funds are entering the fray on the long side. It is interesting to compare the silver open interest with its price action in contrast to what is happening to gold. Like night and day. Silver has rallied substantially with only a slight increase in open interest; while lately, gold has been going sideways with a substantial open interest increase. When silver launched to $8.40+, its open interest was about 122,000.

The silver stocks in the Comex warehouses dropped again, another 505,969 ounces to 115,963,456. This is just what we want to see. Over two weeks ago one of our Café sources said that over 20 million ounces of silver were going to disappear from the warehouse stocks. So far, so good!

Silver has its sights on $7 for a first stop objective. This price rebound is another sign the silver move earlier this year was no fluke. That move was a warning sign of what is to come; that is, the price of silver is going to blow through $10 per ounce later this year.

September silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/94

The John Brimelow Report

Indiscreet Standard: Powerful Bianco

Thursday, July 15 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.77, PM $5.17, with world gold at $404 and $403.60. Slightly below, and more or less at, legal import point. The Indian rupee slipped to a 3-week low today, on gloom over oil prices, the Congress Government’s attitude to business, and a growing feeling the Monsoon will fall short of last year’s perfection. This did not help world gold.

Shanghai prices, on the other hand, have returned to modest premiums after a week of discounts. Kilo bar premiums in the Gulf were mildly favourable today also: averaging appreciably more than $1. Overall, the physical market appears to be adjusting to $400+ world gold.

TOCOM appeared indifferent: volume edged up 16% to the equivalent of 18,099 Comex lots but the active contract was unchanged; world gold fell $2.50 from the NY close. Mitsui-London claims TOCOM was a "good seller", but open interest only fell the equivalent of 640 Comex lots, so any liquidation was on a much smaller scale than seen a few days ago. The "General Public" is far more interested in Platinum at present. (NY traded 47,344 lots yesterday; open interest rose a tell-tale 6,478 contracts.)

Yesterday in NY, as Refco Research says,

"Fund buying and short covering offered lift although trade and bank selling kept matters in check."

Open interest has now risen a steep 18,000 contracts or 1.8Mm ozs of paper gold in three days, with gold stuck slightly over $400. Standard London is apparently sufficiently far down the food chain amongst Bullion dealers to break ranks and stipulate the obvious suspicion:

"It is interesting to note that the fixings in London have tended to be on the weaker side relative to the prevailing pre-fixing markets, which suggests that there is official selling around"

Others have clearly grasped this and it has emboldened opportunistic shorts.

ScotiaMocatta quite reasonably observes of Tuesday’s Comex data:

"The Comex open interest was up 2,261 contracts to a new total of 247,735. The fact that the open interest rose in a falling market tells us that new short positions had been established."

While Reuters reported this afternoon:

""We came off on some decent selling. The floor is offering it lower. They're bearish. The weak longs are liquidating. We're seeing some profit-taking. But I think we're going to hold here and rally. Silver's looking firm. I think this is a buy on the dip," said one COMEX floor broker"

Shorting is naturally easier with a back stop present. Volume was estimated at a heavy 58,000 lots today.

Nevertheless, the physical market as evidenced by the premiums is in a constructive posture and, unless the official sector is willing to do something heroic, will probably continue to edge gold higher in the immediate future.

While waiting for this, those friendly to gold will find yesterday’s Bianco Research Commentary refreshing. Entitled

"Why CPI Might Now Be The "Number Of The Month"

this essay offers a chart and observes:

"The chart below measures how inflation has been performing versus consensus expectations (as measured by MMS International)… In recent months…the expectations index has taken a sharp turn higher …In fact, inflation has been exceeding expectations to a degree never before seen in this data in that the rise in the chart below is the biggest ever seen…the actual inflation rate is currently at 14-year highs…Currently the six-month annualized rate of inflation is at its highest level since 1990."

"Conclusion

Inflation has surged ahead of expectations to levels not seen in well over a decade."

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (10,163 - down 45 in quiet trading) closed on its lows for a change. The DOG continued its losing streak, closing at 1913, down 2.

The dollar gained .44 to 88.20 and the euro lost .55 to 123.27.

When the PPI was raging, our government couldn’t get the number out on time, using one bogus excuse after another. Today’s PPI was reported lower, thus all reporting problems disappeared. How ludicrous can it get? So few in the mainstream, save a John Crudele of the NY Post, bother to say anything on the subject!

There were numerous US economic reports released this morning:

08:30 July Empire Manufacturing reported 36.54 vs. consensus 27.8
Prior reading revised to 29.93 from 30.17.
* * * * *

08:30 May Business Inventories reported 0.4% vs. consensus 0.5%
Prior reading revised to 0.7% from 0.5%.
* * * * *

08:30 June PPI reported (0.3%) vs. consensus 0.2%; ex-Energy reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
May reading unrevised at 0.8%; ex-Energy unrevised at 0.3%.
* * * * *

08:30 Weekly jobless claims reported 349K vs. consensus 345K
Prior week revised to309 K from 310K.
* * * * *

09:18 Industrial production disappointing in June
The (0.3%) decline in June was disappointing, though manufacturing was down just (0.1%). Much of the weakness was due to a (2.3%) decline in utility production, which is often influenced by weather. Capacity utilization was 77.2% vs the 77.7% consensus. The strong July Empire State index will serve as an offset to this report, and the Philly index at 12 ET today will also be watched for an indication that June weakness was an aberration. There was little bond market reaction to the numbers: 10-year note (2/32) to yield 4.49%.

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace this month than in June and more companies reported rising orders and higher employment, a Federal Reserve report showed.
The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's July general economic index rose to 36.1 from 28.9 the previous month. A number greater than zero signals more manufacturers see business improving than deteriorating. The index reached a 10-year high of 38.8 in January and has been in positive territory since June 2003. –END-

Chinese inflation numbers come out tomorrow, which could have some impact on our markets. Some recent headlines

China's economy growth continue to speed up ( 07-15 )

China to be world's 2nd biggest aviation market by 2022 ( 07-15 )

Construction Bank sees profits soar in Jan.-June period ( 07-15 )

Airbus: China's air transport to grow 5 times by 2022 ( 07-15

Beijing economy keeps rapid growth [ 07-14 15:57]

Housing price up 10.4% [ 07-14 15:16]

Foreign trade soars in Shanxi [ 07-13

pflichtmologe · 16. Juli 2004

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
The Federal reserve added $16.148 Billion in both permanent and temporary open market operations ($1.898B (Pomo), $14.25B (Tomo). This action upped the repo pool to a very high $50.873 Billion exactly as I predicted the Fed would do last week. This move further signals the Fed's deep concern that the DOW isn't responding to its support mechanism quickly enough. In addition the Fed may be implementing additional support efforts else where in currencies and bonds.

Prior to the Iraq war start the Fed poured on additional repo support.
Pundits later called the DOW rise an "Iraq War Rally". This characterization was false as the Fed's primary dealers (JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, et al) knew perfectly well what had caused the "Iraq War Rally"...Fed repos. Now we are seeing more Fed repos as the repo pool tops $50 Billion and has an additional high octane boost of permanent open market operations. Are we getting ready for a July surprise? Time will tell.

Yet more on silver

Examine the Silver stockpile chart at:

http://www.pbase.com/image/31301981/original

Note the light green trace that represents refined silver exports beginning in 1994. We see the very large spike in exports that lasted for several years and totaled many thousands of tonnes. This shipment (Shown in light green) is the reason that I doubt that the COMEX silver warehouse is the main depository for silver. The silver exports went to some entity and that entity likely has remaining silver to sell. We can further speculate that the silver shipment was in exchange for gold. Note also that the refined silver was shipped in 1994, within months of Alan Greenspan assuming his two Bank for International Settlements board seats and at the beginning of what would become a series of extreme preemptive selling events in COMEX gold.

The recent huge upward spike in silver could have signaled that the owner of the silver had decided not to play along anymore. Indeed, China (The suspected silver short) isn't cooperating in the international currency arena either by failing to upwardly revalue their Yuan. This refusal after hectoring by the Fed is a serious threat to the dollar and the Euro's continued dominance.

It works like this. By keeping the Yuan pegged to the falling dollar, Chinese products get even more competitive, especially in Europe with a rising Euro. The already compelling attractiveness of Chinese goods become a sure thing to invade Europe as they have done in America. Envision an armada of European Wall-Marts. The Fed and Europe don't want this to happen but have failed to sway the Chinese.

It is my suspicion that the Chinese have further upped the ante by withholding their silver.

Things are getting very dicey indeed.

Now would not be a bad time to obtain some more physical gold.
Mike

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