Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Press Release Source: Bema Gold Corporation

Bema Arranges CDN$5 Million Non-Brokered Flow Through Private Placement

Friday September 10, 2:06 pm ET

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 10, 2004--Bema Gold Corporation (AMEX: BGO - News; TSX: BGO - News; AIM: BAU) is pleased to announce that it has arranged a non-brokered flow through private placement. Subject to regulatory approval, Bema will issue 1,250,000 flow through shares at a price of $4.00 per share for gross proceeds of $5 million. The shares are priced at 27.4 % percent premium to yesterday's closing price of $3.14. Proceeds from this financing will be used for exploration at the high-grade Monument Bay gold property in northeastern Manitoba.
All dollar figures are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated.

On Behalf of BEMA GOLD CORPORATION

Clive T. Johnson, Chairman, C.E.O., & President

Bema Gold Corporation trades on The Toronto Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange. Symbol: BGO. Bema shares also trade on the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market(AIM). Symbol: BAU.

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Ulfur

Das sind ja gute Nachrichten aus China!

Da können wir eigentlich davon ausgehen, dass Silber im schlimmsten Falle nicht mehr unter 5.50 fallen dürfte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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September 10 - Gold $401.50 up $3.60 – Silver $6.13 down 1 cent

Euro Roars On Statements By Fed's Yellin; Cartel Caps Gold Rally As Usual

Zitat

Start buying gold now, regardless of the price. By acting now, you will not have to react when it's too late. Too late will be when the majority of the public finally figures out what is happening to paper money and frantically tries to get aboard. Remember, if you're one of the ones holding paper in the end, you will have given away your products and services for nothing...Robert Ringer

GO GATA!!!!

Around 5 CDT last night, the following hit the newswire tapes:

Stable dollar may mean bigger deficit-Fed's Yellen

SEATTLE, Sept 9 (Reuters) - If the dollar's value remains steady, the record U.S. current account deficit will widen over the long run, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said on Thursday.

"It seems to me over the very long term ... that with the dollar remaining roughly where it is relative to other currencies, this trend is likely to continue to exacerbate, to go from five percent (of gross domestic product) current account deficits to higher levels," she said.
In June the trade deficit soared to a record high $55.82 billion, underscoring the huge U.S. demand for foreign products as well as its reliance on foreign capital to fund consumption.
Yellen, responding to questions after a speech at a Fed-sponsored luncheon, said financing the massive deficit means borrowing from abroad, adding: "Ultimately escalating borrowing over a matter of decades is an unsustainable trend."

While Yellen said she was discussing a 10- to 20-year horizon for the deficits and the dollar, "I believe that (the current account deficit) has to turn around and has to involve the dollar."

-END—

The euro immediately rose 43 points and gold followed suit rising $1 to $2 as the evening wore on. Of course what Yellen had to say was obvious to all of us, however, to see a Fed official come out like this (especially saying what she really thought in an off-the-cuff comment in response to a question) made an impact on the currency crowd.

Coming into the Comex opening, gold firmed an extra $1 and still met its $3 higher opening call. Going into a major report such as the trade deficit, this was very unusual action for gold and most welcome. That led me to wonder what the cabal would come up with to counter surprise action such as this. It did not take long, as usual, to find out.

The cash euro, which closed 40+ points higher last evening than the CME traded vehicle due to the Yellin comments, came in around unchanged ahead of the trade deficit number. Upon release of the number it fell about 30 points, crept back up, and then exploded. In a free traded market gold would have done the same and have run with the euro. Instead, gold dipped and then was capped $3 higher (right where it opened) as the euro took off. Later on, gold was allowed to make a marginal ho-hum 50-cent new high.

FOR THE WEEK, the euro rallied from around 120.66 to 122.65 with a 123.10 high. Gold? It managed to gain a whopping 80 cents, thanks to the corrupt shenanigans of The Gold Cartel who continues to fleece YOU – day in, day out; week in, week out; month, month out; year in, year out; decade in, decade out; millenium in, millenium out!

Here are the euro and gold weekly charts, which will give you some idea of the extent of the price-capping (usually updated early Friday night):

Gold

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Euro

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/EC/W

If you are sick and tired of this nonsense (crap), contact your gold company whom you are invested in and ask them if they have read the Sprott Report. If they have not, demand they do so. If they agree with Sprott, ask them what are they going to do about it. If they disagree, then insist they you give detailed reasons WHY and in writing. If you do nothing when presented with this marvelous opportunity to shake up and wake up gold producer CEO's, you deserve to be miserable with your gold and silver investments.

You can find The Sprott Special Report, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price," in Adobe Acrobat format at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://www.sprott.com/

By day’s end the dollar fell .46 to 88.46. The dollar has formed a very narrow, but massive, wedge formation. Each time it looks as if it will break out to the upside, it turns right around. Support stopped the dollar slide today right where it should have technically at 88.14. What a move we have coming once this tug-of-war is resolved! With all the dollar has going against it these days, it is hard for me seeing any lasting dollar resolution which includes a lasting breakout to the upside.

September dollar

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/94

So the Fed’s Yellen says the dollar must come down to turn around the US’s massive deficits. Yet, the Bush Administration’s parrot, Treasury Secretary Snow, still feels compelled to role out the Wall Street mandated mantra about the US strong dollar policy – a policy in which US Treasury Secretaries have never explained how it was actually implemented in the first place. Of course, GATA knows the cornerstone of the policy was the rigging of the gold price. This is what Snow must have meant in his dollar comments yesterday. Guess we wanted to assure Wall Street and the rest of the cabal the rigging of the gold price is still one of their main priorities at the ESF and Treasury.

Still, the inane Mr. Snow sounds like a talking bird who awoke out of a sleepy hibernation like Rip Van Winkle did, as he spouts off on the mantra demanded by Wall Street of years gone by:

U.S. Treasury chief says backs strong dollar

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday declined to comment on a two-year downtrend in the dollar against the euro and yen and reiterated his support for a strong greenback.

"One thing that I don't do as Treasury secretary is comment on relative values of the various currencies," Snow said in an interview on the CNBC cable television network. "But I often reiterate our policy, which is the policy of a strong dollar, a policy that we've stood behind since my first days in office." –END-

I didn’t even blink at silver’s poor performance. How could anyone? It was like watching an actor perform the same role in the same SCRIPTED play. With gold moving up along with the weaker dollar, The Gold Cartel kept to its own script of minimizing precious metals markets excitement by sitting all over silver. Seen this drill a hundred times. Besides, silver tends to act as a Lone Ranger. When it is really going to move, it will have nothing to do with the dollar. It has always been this way over the years. It was a piece of cake for cabal forces to take silver down this session with gold putting in a fair rally.

The gold open interest fell 1321 contracts to 247,918. The silver open interest continues to really disappear as it dropped another 1144 contracts to 82,613.

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The John Brimelow Report

Friday, September 10, 2004

Surprise! A seller around

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.83, PM $6.53, with world gold at $$400.10 and $400.40. Ample for legal imports. Commercial confidence seems to rebuilding in India. The stock market closed at a 4-month high, and industrial output was reported today to be running 6.6% above last year. India is lending powerful support to world gold at these prices.

TOCOM is little interested. Volume slipped 23% to equal only 13,357 Comex lots. The active contract closed up 6 yen, and open interest edged up the equivalent of 110 Comex contracts to equal 80,133 Comex. World gold stood 90c higher than the NY close at the end. (NY yesterday traded 31,980 contracts. Open interest rose 1,331 to 247,918 lots.)

As Refco Research gloomily predicted when opting to try a silver long yesterday, the resurfacing of "bank selling" in gold combined with the rough time Western longs have had in recent weeks has intimidated speculators. Barclays acknowledged this today:

"The market is going to be wary today ahead of the US trade deficit and producer prices data releases... Given the current selling pressure, we expect dollar positive data to have a more marked (negative) impact on the gold price than a dollar negative (and hence gold positive) set of data." (JB italics)

And indeed gold is up only half of what the dollar’s move implies.

This will make the consistent buyers in the Middle East and India very happy.

JB

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The past many weeks we saw the DOW drag up the DOG. The past two days it has been the reverse. While the DOW didn’t exactly put in a full Hail Mary rally, it was down 20 to 30 points in the early/mid-day going and yet managed to close up 24 to 10,313. The DOG was very firm all day long, rising 25 to 1894.

As a group, the US financial market continue to be held in lockdown mode, or support up mode. Seems The Working Group on Financial Markets wants a Stepford Wives or Matrix Market scene as we go into the Presidential election with the DOW to be held up at all costs. A money manager told me today he wondered why they had morning meetings on the markets? He said when it comes to the stock market, let us just find out what Bolser is saying about the repo action to prop it up.

The US bond market, trading around the tactical, yet massive, Tinsley put operation, rallied 1/8 after falling sharply yesterday.

The economic news out of Japan was disappointing, seems to be the trend all over the world:

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell after the government unexpectedly cut its second-quarter growth estimate, signaling an economic recovery is faltering. Banks such as Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and retailers including Ito-Yokado Co. slid.
``There was much optimism in the market for an upgrade of growth so the knee-jerk reaction to the GDP report is to sell,' said Shigeharu Shiraishi, who oversees the equivalent of $15 billion in assets as a managing director at Societe Generale Asset Management (Japan) Co. in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.8 percent to 11,083.23 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. The Topix index slid 0.6 percent to 1126.26. Banks and retailers accounted for 17 percent of the drop.

-END-

CNBC: ECONOMIC NEWS IS GOOD?

So said most of their commentators this morning, reading from their prepared scripts. HUH?

Alcoa warned as did GM’s parts suppliers. Meanwhile no less than 3 major firms announced coming layoffs, led by EDS’s 20,000 number, which will be extended over the next couple of years.

Maybe CNBC was referring to the coming increase in phone rates as good news?

06:00 SBC Wholesale SBC rate hikes likely, says the LA Times
The Times indicates the California Public Utilities Commission is poised to raise wholesale phone rates by 20%-54% after three of the PUC's five commissioners released proposals Thursday to increase what rivals pay SBC to lease lines and equipment. The PUC will hold a meeting on 9/23 at which point a nearly 22% rate hike is expected to be approved. SBC will be free to raise rates shortly thereafter.
* * * * *
AHH, phone rates are like food and energy....they don’t really count. After all, the PPI was less than expected. Not one guest commentator failed to point to this number as proof inflation is not a problem in the US. The good news:

08:30 Aug PPI reported (0.1%) vs. consensus 0.2%; ex-Food & Energy (0.1%) vs. consensus 0.1%
July PPI unch. 0.1%; ex-Food & Energy 0.1%.
* * * * *

streetacct's slant on nums:

08:33 PPI falls, Trade Deficit narrows
Both total and core PPI fell 0.1% in August, confirming that the early-year uptick in the price indexes was an energy story that has run its course. These readings will help reduce market concerns that the Fed will have to act aggressively to rein in inflation.
* * * * *

This seems to be a classic case of "can’t see the forest through the trees." Over the past many months and years, I can’t recall the Bush Administration, Fed or Wall Street ever citing inflation as a problem in the US, even though health costs, education costs, housing prices, etc., have all soared. Rising commodity prices, like oil, are always referred to as a blip and temporary. Oh really? Take a gander at the CRB weekly and monthly and tell me we have not had sustained commodity inflation anyway you measure it:

CRB weekly

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W

CRB monthly

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/M

Now that we have seen we have had nothing but commodity inflation in this country the past few years, let us look at the other good news of the day. The trade deficit narrowed more than expected. So what if was the second largest on record and an unthinkable one when the Republicans took office in Washington.

08:31 July Trade deficit narrows to $50.1B vs. consensus $51.5B
Prior deficit revised to $55B from $55.8B.
* * * * *

Oops, not so fast here either. Jesse points out:

Its always nice to be able to see the data before adjustments, especially in an election year:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/tradedeficitnsa.gif]

Nowhere did I hear, or read, from Wall Street or Washington the trade number was seasonally adjusted!

Facts, facts, facts, please dispose of them. There is an election coming. There is no inflation, except if you have to buy health insurance:

U.S. Health-Insurance Premiums Rise 11%, Study Says

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Health-insurance premiums paid by U.S. employers rose 11.2 percent this year, five times as fast as wages, according to a study that may reinforce voters' worries over rising medical costs.

Rates have soared 59 percent since President George W. Bush took office in 2001, researchers at the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust said. Health insurance now costs an average of $9,950 for families and $3,695 for individuals, the survey showed. –END-

More minor details of the manner in which the conservatives are running our government. Barry Goldwater has to be churning in his grave:

by Walter Williams

Federal Deficit Reality

September 8, 2004

U.S. Treasury Shows Actual 2003 Federal Deficit at $3.7 Trillion
Deficit Moves Beyond Any Possible Tax Remedy
Could U.S. Treasuries Face a Rating Downgrade?

The U.S. government's fiscal ills have spun wildly out of control and no longer are containable within the existing system. As detailed in this article, the actual annual shortfall in U.S. government operations for fiscal year 2003 (September 30) was $3.7 trillion. Put in perspective, that means if the U.S. Treasury had seized all wages and salaries in 2003 with a 100% income tax, there still would have been a deficit! The outlook for fiscal 2004 numbers is even worse.

***

For the full article by Walter Williams, go to:

http://www.prudentbear.com/arc…mentary&content_idx=35770

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal Reserve added $3 Billion in temporary open market operations and $.799 Billion in permanent open market operations today, September 10th 2004. These actions kept the repo pool well up at $56.814 Billion and still extending its gap above its all-important 30-day ma. The arrival of a permanent omo is telling. Combined with the widening distance upward from the pool's own red line moving average we can say unequivocally that this up move in the repo pool is substantive and a very strong indicator that the Fed wants the DOW to move up. Recall that just before the "Iraq War Rally" we saw a blizzard of perms (orange spheres on the lower chart scale line)...we may have seen the first of many more today. Shorting the DOW now would be financial suicide, indeed a long position is recommended especially for the October "Diamonds". Forget about a plunging DOW.

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I'm getting indications pointing to late September for a possible market moving event. This is reliable as to time but non-specific as to what is involved. So my recommendation stands to be IN your gold vehicle by early next week. The cartel is expending huge quantities of metal in what cannot be a sustainable tactic thus they are in a preparatory mode, just as we see in the repo pool. Bill calls it a market "lock-down" before the election. I think there may be more to these market preparation antics than meets the eye.

MCDI

The proprietary pma line for the MCDI is a straight upward tilting slope with a high R^2 value. Indeed, this R^2 value is getting higher over time as we can see by the increasing closeness of the data to a line through it. This result tells us that the Fed has set up a rising MCDI target goal and has kept to it. Forget about a plunging dollar.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/MCDI_pma.gif]

So...IF there is to be a rising DOW and dollar how can the Fed keep gold down? In a single phrase....they can't. The rising MCDI predictor tells us that in order to keep the DIVG flat, gold would have to be continually forced down in dollar terms and this is an impossibility due to rising physical demand. Forget about falling gold. I speak always in long term view
points and the day-to-day movement are expected to deviate (sometime by allot) but the trend goal is tightly controlled and it returns to its target.

That leaves as the only other possibility either flat or rising gold in terms of the PM Fix. Either one of these outcomes delivers a rising DIVG, something that cartel members would adamantly demand in their inflationary or stagflationary futures.

I continue to prefer bullion to futures and small un-hedged precious metals equities. My other position is a small Canadian natural gas firm in a special, maturing situation.

Ivan and Ivanov

The monster hurricane broods in the Caribbean with 160MPH winds and a whipsawing forecast path that both elates and dashes hopes. Mandatory evacs have commenced in the Keys and all of Florida is still reeling with rivers many feet above flood stage, stores out of perishables and my bank (on an 8-lane business highway) still with no power. Their huge generator roars with hot employees sweltering because they can't run their a/c for unexplained reasons, only the computers. Meanwhile, campaign photo ops pop with the political paparazzi. Local hurricane relief support has been far superior to that from the govies.

I said yesterday to observe the coming actions of Sergei Ivanov, Russia's Defense Minister. Although the agreement announced below is significant in that it shows new Russian encroachment into Latin America just as Argentina thumbs its nose at the IMF, the real Ivanov event is yet to be seen. If the Russians act in character, Ivanov's appearance in my view, will affect the US at its weakest point.

Russia, Chile about to sign agreement on military-tech coop.

09.09.2004, 20.41

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/l…?NewsID=1232376&PageNum=0

MOSCOW, September 9 (Itar-Tass) - Russia and Chile will sign these days an intergovernmental agreement on military-technical cooperation, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said at the talks with his Chilean counterpart Michelle Bachelet. END

[/B]And Russia's foreign minister is predictably on full diplomatic attack:

West shouldn't interfere in Russia's internal affairs - Lavrov

09.09.2004, 20.04

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/l…?NewsID=1232138&PageNum=0

MOSCOW, September 9 (Itar-Tass) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Western partners should not interfere with Russia's handling its internal affairs.

Some countries make things difficult for Russia, "granting political asylum to terrorists, who are directly guilty of the death of people," Lavrov told reporters on Thursday. END

Russian generals have this morning issued what must be considered as an eminent warning of assault on terrorist bases:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/l…?NewsID=1235360&PageNum=0

They have suggested that these bases are inside Georgia.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For further study of the simmering Georgia/Russian conflict, the following map links to the Caucasus Region may be helpful:

http://chechen.8m.com/cgi-bin/i/maps/caucasus_zoom_map.gif>\

And the language distribution map which tells a great deal about the ethnic mix:

http://titus.uni-frankfurt.de/didact/karten/kauk/kaukasm.htm

Mike

A reminder GATA will be throwing a luncheon at the New Orleans Investment Conference on Sunday, November 14. From GATA’s Chris Powell:

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee will hold a fund-raising lunch at the conclusion of the New Orleans Investment Conference: 12:30 p.m. Sunday, November 14, 2004, in the Armstrong Ballroom on the eighth floor of the New Orleans Sheraton Hotel.

GATA's officers and researchers -- including Bill Murphy, Chris Powell, Frank Veneroso, Reginald H. Howe, Michael Bolser, James Turk, Robert K. Landis, Ed Steer, and Catherine Austin Fitts -- will attend and take questions from guests.

Each guest will receive a bound copy of Sprott Asset Management's August 2004 report confirming GATA's work, "Not Free or Fair: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price."

Admission will be $50, there will be a cash bar, and reservations are required.

To reserve a place, contact GATA Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell by e-mail at GATAComm@aol.com or by U.S. mail at 7 Villa Louisa Road, Manchester,
CT 06043-7541 USA.

Some feedback on Dan Norcini’s latest and on that of so many other superb Café contributors:

Hi, Bill!

Are you as incredulous as I am at the quality of work being produced in the past couple weeks by commentators on the financial system, especially as it relates to gold and the dollar? It seems that a number of people are finding a way to consolidate all they have learned over the past years into essays that are simply brilliant. And I sense that the work is being produced out of a sense of urgency. That the authors believe it is now or never to get the ideas down in a way that teaches, informs, clarifies, before you-know-what really hits the fan.

I'm not trying to get my name published again by here including my response to Dan Norcini's latest!!! Its just my way of letting you know that this vehicle you have created for dialogue (the Cafe) is simply the best, and a way to say thank you for having had the idea and bringing it to life.
Terry

Could we possibly making a dent with the venerable Mr. Richard Russell and his views on market manipulation? From his commentary this evening:

Just a thought -- Wall Street and the Republicans have a huge stake in what the stock market does between now and election time. I've noticed that every time the Dow begins to weaken, buying comes into the S&P futures, and then the Dow firms up as does the rest of the market.

Is it possible that large interests via buying through Morgan Stanley or Goldman or Merrill or some banks are moving to keep the market from falling? I've never been a big believer in market manipulation, but I must say I'm becoming suspicious as I watch the action day after day.

Also, with volume running low it's becoming very easy to buy a batch of S&P futures and thereby keep the stock market on the plus side. Damn, it just happened again near the close. Just a thought, dear subscribers, just a thought.

But in the end, I'm better off just trusting my PTI, rather than having nasty manipulation thoughts.

-END-

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CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Take what we can get for now. Even the RR man is suspicious of the ever present Hail Mary late rally.

If you are a Golden Star Resources ($4.49, up 9 cents) shareholder and feel like I do about their support of the World Gold Council, I hope you have taken the time, or will, to contact the firm in some manner (phone or email) to express your disgust at their wasting our shareholder money. Here are just a couple of examples of the emails going their way:

Dear Mr. Marter:

Through various family member accounts I own xxxxxx common shares of Golden Star (market value $1.12 million) and have been a shareholder since 1996.

I want to echo Bill Murphy's sentiments about the World Gold Council. The WGC is a farce. I believe that they would do more for the cause of gold by simply going out of business than by continuing their inept promotions of gold jewelry. I vigorously oppose any continuation of the wasteful support of this incompetent organization by our Company. Disbanding the WGC would be of great benefit to our industry. Bill is right. Please stop using shareholder money to support the WGC.

Thank you.

"Concerned shareholder"
New York, New York

Dear CFO and CEO

As a shareholder of GSS with a significant holding of about (xxxxxxxxx) shares, I am compelled to inform you that I completely agree with Bill Murphy of LeMetropole concerning the wasteful payment being made in support of the useless World Gold Council. It is sickening to me that the producers of the precious metal commodities remain silent, while blatant interventions to suppress the price abound, and this financial support to the WGC adds insult to injury. I have not been able to find one positive aspect for paying a percentage of the bullion price to WGC. So if there are any, please advise me. Contrarily, there is considerable evidence that they are in fact enemies of gold, who repeatedly implement campaigns that relegate gold bullion to a non-investment status. This money would be much better spent supporting GATA, who remains the singular outspoken friend of gold investors. Your stock which was once a stellar performer, has behaved dismally during the past year, and I have resisted impulses to sell out of my position. Mostly, because Bill Murphy still believes in the company. However, you should earn his respect and begin to speak out about the manipulative interventions that exist, and stop wasting money supporting a useless organization who's agenda seems to be supportive of the cartel of manipulators. You have an opportunity to be a leader in this industry by taking up a campaign to expose the price setting, but you not only choose the path of least resistance, you aid an enemy by contributing to the WGC.

Sincerely,
Richard D. Caccavale

If own shares in some exploration companies as I do, you might want to call them up and see if they still have a pulse and are alive. The interest in the sector is as abysmal as I have ever seen it. Many trade by appointment only; that is when they trade.

The HUI ran right up against a pronounced downtrend line and backed off LATE in the session. After making a high of 205.23, it sank to 203.07, up only 1.59. The XAU could only manage a .46 gain to 88.37 with Barrick Gold closing at $19.37, down 12 cents. Barrick says gold could rally $70 from here by year-end. Sure hope they cover more of their monstrously huge hedge position around these levels. If their potential price target becomes a reality and they fail to substantially reduce their hedges, how will they explain that to shareholders as Barrick stock continues to WAY under-perform like it has for the past three years?

HUI

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

No change from me. The gold fundamentals remains a "10+++++." They don’t get any better, as brought to your attention the past few weeks. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. When gold does make its move, many of those fundamental reasons or market developments will be cited as reasons why.

I expect gold and silver to take off from here in the weeks ahead and will be dead wrong if that doesn’t happen. Will I be shocked? Course not, we know who is out there doing all they can to keep this from happening and why. My bet is the physical market is going to give them fits and overpower them as September rolls on.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

I also hope many of you have made an effort to make sure the Sprott Report gets into the hands of as many in the media as possible. You have been handed of examples of superb letters in past MIDAS commentaries. All it will take on your part is a bit of elbow grease.

Bill

Here's a bunch of US media addresses which may also be of use to other subscribers. I haven't weeded out any non-performing ones but I think it's a pretty up to date list.

bdold@tribune.com, cjletter@louisv02.gannett.com, constitution@ajc.com, dceditpage@democratandchronicle.com, DNForum@dailynews.com, editor.letters@herald-trib.com, editor@argusleader.com, editor@postandcourier.com, editor@spokane.net, editor@usatoday.com, editorial@boise.gannett.com, editpage@patriot-news.com, editpage@seattle-pi.com, edletter@coxohio.com, eletters@starledger.com, epage@bhamnews.com, fcoleman@mobileregister.com, fencepost@dailyherald.com, forum@nando.com, HeraldEd@herald.com, hleditorial@herald-leader.com, htimes@htimes.com, Inquirer.Letters@phillynews.com, insight@orlandosentinel.com, jreingold@pbdailynews.com, jsedit@onwis.com, kns@knoxnews.com, letter.editor@edit.wsj.com, letter@globe.com, letters@adn.com, letters@azstarnet.com, letters@baltsun.com, letters@bfp.burlingtonfreepress.com, letters@cctimes.com, letters@courant.com, letters@denverpost.com, letters@denver-rmn.com, letters@desnews.com, letters@detnews.com, letters@dispatch.com, letters@enquirer.com, letters@express-news.net, letters@forumcomm.com, letters@freepress.com, letters@gomemphis.com, letters@honoluluadvertiser.com, letters@jackson.gannett.com, letters@kcstar.com, letters@lasvegassun.com, letters@latimes.com, letters@latimes.com, letters@lvrj.com, letters@mail.tribnet.com, letters@news.dmreg.com, letters@news.oregonian.com, letters@newsday.com, letters@nypost.com, letters@nytimes.com, letters@pbpost.com, letters@pilotonline.com, letters@pioneerpress.com, letters@plaind.com, letters@post-gazette.com, letters@postnet.com, letters@pressherald.com, letters@projo.com, letters@sfchronicle.com, letters@sjmercury.com, letters@sltrib.com, letters@sptimes.com, letters@star-telegram.com, letters@statesman.com, letters@sun-sentinel.com, letters@suntimes.com, letters@syracuse.com, letters@telegram.com, letters@tennessean.com, letters@theblade.com, letters@theunionleader.com, letters@time.com, letters@timesdispatch.com, letters@trib.com, letters@tulsaworld.com, letters@union-news.com, letters@uniontrib.com, letters@washingtontimes.com, letters@washpost.com, letters@wsjournal.com, letters@wvgazette.com, letterstoeditor@bostonherald.com, letterstoeditor@dallasnews.com, LettersToTheEditor@NorthJersey.com, LetterToEditor@buffnews.com, mailbox@postherald.com, njletter@newsjournal.com, oped@csps.com, opinion@abqjournal.com, opinion@charlotte.com, opinion@missoulian.com, opinion@sacbee.com, opinion@seattletimes.com, opinion@startribune.com, opinion@tribweb.com, Opinions@pni.com, postedits@cincypost.com, pulse@gr-press.com, pulse@owh.com, redaccion@laopinion.com, speakup@billingsgazette.com, stareditor@starnews.com, stateeditor@thestate.com, tdedit@taldem.com, triblet@angnewspapers.com, tribletters@tampatrib.com, tuletters@timesunion.com, viewpoints@chron.com, Views@phillynews.com, voicers@edit.nydailynews.com, vop@thebeaconjournal.com, weedit@wichitaeagle.com, yourviews@app.com, yourviews@oklahoman.com

Tim

Morgan Stanley

September 10, 2004

Global: Spinning Its Wheels

Stephen Roach (from Paris)

As the US economy now enters the 34th month of the current expansion, debate over sustainability remains as intense as ever. In a recent congressional appearance, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan stated, "the expansion has regained some traction" after having gone through an energy-price-induced soft patch last spring. With all due respect to Mr. Greenspan, at this point in time, such a claim is largely an assertion based on a very creative interpretation of ever-volatile hard data. In my view, the case for traction in the US economy remains a weak one.

The concept of "economic traction" is not well understood. As I see it, traction comes when a cyclical recovery can truly stand its own. It is, first and foremost, a matter for the consumer -- the heart and soul of any sustainable economic recovery. Traction reaches a critical mass only when the internal dynamics of the business cycle push the wage income portion of personal income generation above trend. Then, and only then, can autonomous growth in consumer demand be sustained on its own. Consumer traction is also the linchpin in providing ancillary support to the "derived demands" of business capital spending and inventory investment. Without consumer traction, the case for sustainability remains a real stretch.

The issue of traction is key to the current debate because this recovery has yet to stand on its own. Since the last recession ended in late 2001, the US economy has drawn unusual support from several artificial factors -- namely, massive policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal), saving depletion, the levering of assets, and the costless funding of domestic growth by foreign central banks. Hooked on the high-powered "steroids" of such extraordinary life-support measures, America hasn’t had to rely on the internal fuel of accelerating wage income generation that normally facilitates a transition from recovery to expansion. And that’s for good reason -- there has been an extraordinary and enduring shortfall in wage income generation since the inception of the current recovery. Based on data over the first 32 months of this upturn, real wage and salary disbursements have recorded a cumulative increase of just 2.2%. By contrast, by this same juncture in the previous six business cycles, real wage income had recorded a 10.6% average increase. Had wage income generation during this expansion matched the composite profile of past cycles, American consumers would have had an additional $339 billion of discretionary purchasing power at their disposal. That’s the equivalent of 4.3% of total real disposable personal income -- hardly a trivial sum by any standards.

The income shortfall of this expansion hardly comes out of thin air. It is a by-product of America’s notorious jobless recovery and a concomitant compression of real wages. Again, the numbers speak for themselves: On the job front, private nonfarm payrolls are now up only 0.3% over the first 33 months of this expansion. By contrast, at similar junctures of the past six cycles, the increase averaged 7.8%. The gap between the hiring trajectory of this expansion and the composite profile of these earlier recoveries works out to an employment shortfall of 8.2 million workers in the private economy. A similar pattern shows up in real wages -- comparisons in the current cycle are running an astonishing 0.3% below year-earlier levels (as measured by CPI-deflated average hourly earnings). It is the interplay between job creation and the real wage cycle that shapes the internal dynamics of wage income generation. And in that context, the record over the broad scope of this expansion remains woefully deficient.

Yet the soft-patch crowd argues that this is an old story -- that the numbers have turned for the better in recent months. Once again, Fed Chairman Greenspan has led the optimistic charge. And once again, I find myself on the other side of this positive spin. Yes, consumer demand rebounded in July, but that came after a terrible June; the average change in real consumption expenditures over the two months was only +0.2% -- actually a shade below an already subdued pace in the first five months of 2004. Moreover, major retailers reported disappointing back-to-school sales in August and there was renewed softness in motor vehicle sales as well. Meanwhile there are signs of mounting inventory backups -- a classic warning sign of production adjustments to come. Unfortunately, the inventory data lag other statistics, but it now looks as if total business stocks rose by at least 0.9% in July following a 1.0% increase in June -- marking the sharpest back-to-back monthly gains since before the last recession. The recent back-up in stocks has been especially noticeable in the motor vehicles sector -- both for domestically-located producers and for America’s new China-based supply chain. Detroit has already announced significant production cutbacks in 4Q04 that will probably knock at least 0.5 percentage point off annualized real GDP growth. This certainly doesn’t sound like consumer-inspired traction to me.

Nor is Corporate America stepping up and delivering any autonomous traction of its own. Sure, hiring rebounded a bit in August after a couple of crummy months. But the three-month average increase of 104,000 for nonfarm payrolls remains decidedly subpar by any standards -- about one-third slower than the typical recovery pace and equally short of gains required to keep the unemployment rate stable. And, as noted above, US businesses remain equally frugal on the pay front. Recent trends on the wage income generation front have taken a modest turn for the better. However, in the 12 months ending this July, real wage and salary disbursements still rose just 2.8% -- better than the stagnation in the first 20 months of this recovery but far short of the solid income growth that would support renewed vigor in consumer demand.

But the most fascinating insight of all into business attitudes may be the $38.7 billion spike in corporate stock buyback announcements that occurred in July -- the strongest such surge in 20 years and fully four times the average monthly pace of the past year. This, perhaps more than anything, puts Corporate America’s cards squarely on the table. Awash in newfound earnings and cash flow, companies would rather buy their own shares than embark on growth oriented strategies of hiring, boosting compensation, and adding to productive capacity. This is not as shocking as it may seem at first blush. I have long believed that capital investment and hiring are driven far more by future demand expectations than by the oft-volatile ups and downs of the profits cycle. Given the stresses and strains still bearing down on the American consumer, Corporate America has remained justifiably cautious in these uncertain times. With consumers lacking in traction, businesses are in no hurry to go out on the risk curve and fill the void.

The spin-doctors see it very differently, of course. Hope is widespread that the recent soft patch was nothing more than a temporary detour for a US economy that finally displayed some vigor -- 5.1% real GDP growth over the four quarters ending 1Q04. But in the end, traction cannot be verified by a one-month data blip. Yes, July was better than June but the jury is still out on August -- to say nothing of the months ahead when the US economy is finally taken off the special life support measures that have been so critical to this recovery. For America, that will be the ultimate moment of truth -- when the economy then comes face-to-face with the lingering imbalances of subpar income generation, sharply reduced saving, an ever-widening current-account imbalances, and a record overhang of household indebtedness.

Notwithstanding this looming reality check, financial markets have deep conviction that a reacceleration of economic growth is imminent. If that were not the case, why else would fixed income markets still be pricing in another 50 bp of Fed tightening by year end and another 100 bp of rate hikes over the four quarters of next year? Why would equity markets still be looking for sustained corporate earnings growth? Or why would the dollar continue to defy the gravity of a looming current-account adjustment? Make no mistake, the traction bet is on -- by policy makers, financial markets, and incumbent Republican politicians. Yet this could well be a losing bet. For an income-short American consumer, traction remains as elusive as ever. A structurally-impaired US economy might only be spinning its wheels

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.tradesignal.com/img/menu/logo.gif]

http://www.tradesignal.com/def…l/analyse.asp&id=6905

Der GOLD Trend ist sauber intakt

von Harald Weygand, Godmode-Trader.de , BörseGo GmbH,

10. September 2004 17:53

GOLD: 401,25 $

Tageschart (log) seit dem 02.04.2004 (1 Kerze = 1 Tag) als Kurzupdate:

Der Aufwärtstrend seit Mai dieses Jahres ist sauber intakt. Es gibt 2 Varianten der Aufwärtstrendlinie. Wie Sie dem beigefügten Chart entnehmen können, konnte GOLD vorgestern auf der oberen der beiden Varianten bei 394,8 $ nach oben abprallen. Maximal bis 390 $ könnte GOLD noch konsolidieren, ohne daß der Aufwärtstrend verletzt wird! Insofern zeigt sich das Chart Setup bei GOLD und in den Goldminenindizes weiter formidabel. Ausgehend von den beiden Aufwärtstrendlinien, - also von 394,8 $ und 390,0 $ -, dürfte es zu einem Aufwärtsschub in Richtung 414 und 430 $ kommen. Ein Bruch der 390 $ Marke auf Tagesschluß würde hingegen ein starkes Verkaufssignal auslösen!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.godmode-charts.de/c…subcortical/O2/ugo592.gif]

GOLD eigentlich weiter mit Aufwärtsdrall

30.08. 09:09

GOLD: 402,85 $

Tageschart (log) seit dem 29.03.2004 (1 Kerze = 1 Tag) als Kurzupdate:

BUY Trigger ist die 407,7 $ Marke. Kurzfristig ist eine Konsolidierung wahrscheinlich, die bis 399,25 bzw. 393,7 $ verlaufen kann. Maximal kann man einer Konsolidierung Spielraum bis 390 zugestehen. Bei 390 $ verlaufen eine ganze Reihe wichtige Unterstützungstypen zusammen; neben einer wichtigen Horizontalunterstützung und einem Retracementsupport lässt sich hier eine Aufwärtstrendlinienvariante sondieren. Nach Konsolidierung dürfte GOLD aus heutiger Sicht seinen Aufwärtsdrall in Richtung 430 $ beibehalten. Insofern eine interessante Chartsituation, weil das Setup von EUR/USD seit vergangener Woche schlagartig wieder außerordentlich kritisch aussieht. Ein Abrutschen unter 390 $ sollte bei GOLD unbedingt vermieden werden, weil dies sonst ein starkes Verkaufssignal auslösen würde.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.godmode-charts.de/c…subcortical/O2/ugo487.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.instock.de/images/Logo_silber1.gif]

http://www.instock.de/Nachrichten/10146335.html

Apollo Gold droht Ungemach

(Siegel Investments)

Die US-Minengesellschaft Apollo Gold (AMEX: AGT, Kurs 0,79 kanadische Dollar) meldet für das Juniquartal einen Einbruch der Produktion auf 24.345 Unzen, was einer Jahresrate von etwa 100.000 Unzen entspricht und das Produktionsziel von jährlich 176.000 Unzen um etwa 40 Prozent verfehlt. In der Florida Canyon Mine erreichte die Produktion 18.442 Unzen bei Nettoproduktionskosten von 361 Dollar je Feinunze.

Im Montana Tunnels Projekt brach die Produktion auf 5.903 Unzen bei Nettoproduktionskosten von 899 Dollar je Feinunze ein. Die Zinkproduktion fiel auf 2.700 Tonnen und die auf Bleiproduktion 800 Tonnen, so daß aus diesem Bereich kein Ausgleich für die Verluste im Goldbereich erzielt werden konnte. Bei Nettoproduktionskosten von 492 Dollar je Feinunze und einem Verkaufspreis von 356 Dollar je Feinunze mußte bereits auf der Produktionsebene ein Verlust von 136 Dollar je Feinunze hingenommen werden. Ursprünglich waren Nettoproduktionskosten von 260 Dollar je Feinunze geplant worden. Der niedrige Verkaufspreis ist auf Vorwärtsverkäufe zurückzuführen, die im Jahresverlauf 2003 aufgenommen wurden. Der operative Verlust erreichte 285 Dollar je Feinunze. Auf der Basis einer jährlichen Produktion von 100.000 Unzen liegt die Lebensdauer der Reserven bei 19,3 Jahren.

Der Cashbestand fiel im ersten Halbjahr 2004 dramatisch zurück, während die gesamte Kreditbelastung nur unmerklich reduziert werden konnte. Die Vorwärtsverkäufe wurden auf 42.000 Unzen reduziert, was einen Produktionszeitraum von 0,4 Jahren abdeckt. Die unrealisierten Verluste aus den Vorwärtsverkäufen lagen Ende Juni bei 52 Dollar je Feinunze.

Beurteilung: Durch die katastrophale Gewinnentwicklung hat sich die finanzielle Situation der Apollo innerhalb von 6 Monaten so drastisch verschlechtert, daß die Gesellschaft ums Überleben kämpft. Sogar die Fertigstellung der Standard Mine, aus der ab November 2004 eine jährliche Produktion von 60.000 Unzen bei Nettoproduktionskosten von unter 225 Dollar je Feinunze vorgesehen war, ist gefährdet. Die Entwicklung der Black Fox Mine, aus der eine jährliche Produktion von 81.000 Unzen über einen Zeitraum von 5 Jahren geplant wurde, erscheint aussichtslos.

Apollo benötigt zum Überleben hohe Kredite, die der Gesellschaft nach dem Desaster der letzten beiden Quartale möglicherweise nicht mehr zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Die Existenz der Gesellschaft ist daher akut gefährdet, so daß sich Apollo nur noch als Beimischung für extrem risikobereite Anleger anbietet.

Wir stufen Apollo als Hoffnungswert zu einer Halteposition zurück.

Empfehlung: Halten, nicht nachkaufen. Sollte die Gesellschaft überleben, ist ein Kursziel von 3 kanadische Dollar möglich. Apollo Gold wird an mehreren deutschen Börsen notiert. Die WKN lautet 691373.

Siegel Investments ist Herausgeber der Zeitschrift "Goldmarkt". Autor Martin Siegel ist Berater des PEH Q-Goldmines-Fonds.

[ Freitag, 10.09.2004, 11:21 ]