Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The John Brimelow Report

Do we have lift off?

Thursday, September 30, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.75, PM $6.95, with world gold at $411.20 and $412. Lavish, and ample, for legal imports. This is a very solid base for any attempt by world gold to advance.

Reuters carries a story originally published in the Indian "Economic Times" newspaper today reporting that gold activity in Bombay is down 43% from last week, to only 100kg a day, and quoting a Madras-based dealer saying that imports there are "virtually zero". Apparently Madras is in an "inauspicious" phase for gold purchases: the premiums there have been marginal all week. But the other cities are indicating steady importing interest still. See

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/869115.cms .

"Profit-taking orders were lined up around the high" says Reuters of TOCOM, and in the end the active contract closed down 1 yen, while world gold was up 10c from the NY close. Total volume, equal to 18,724 Comex lots, was 36% below yesterday. Open interest was virtually unchanged, up the equivalent of 511 Comex. The Japanese public is carrying far less than their usual TOCOM gold long: they may even be short. Their correcting this will by itself be a positive force for world gold.

New York yesterday 66,525 contracts, a steep 42% more than the Comex estimate. Open interest jumped 4,491 lots, almost 14 tonnes. As always, very serious selling appears on any breakout attempt.

As also seem frequently to happen when gold shows signs of life, a new IMF gold sales scare is underway as well. But it is important to note that the proponents envisage any sales being part of the Washington Agreement structure. See

http://www.debtireland.org/.

So this supply should already be discounted.

Barclays Capital today, noting that Zinc has finally come to life says of gold: 

[B]"Interestingly, this rally has not been the euro-driven phenomenon that has been the hallmark of gold's price performance since 2002, with gold outperforming the euro most of this week. This week, gold has moved in line with the rest of the commodity complex and this may well be an indication that basket buying of commodities is becoming an increasingly important factor in commodity price movement more generally."

This could be big news.

JB

option63

Die Thais die kein, oder wenig Gold besitzen wundern, und Thais mit viel Gold freuen sich über die stetig weiter steigenden Goldpreise!

Habe gestern nochmals etwas physisch Gold nachgelegt, und bei dieser Gelegenheit mit dem Gold Händler ein längeres Gespräch geführt, und nach seiner Meinung zur zukünftigen Gold Preis Entwicklung gefragt. Er meinte, dass Gold bis ende Jahr 2004, nochmals um ca. 1000 THB pro Bath (15.2 Gramm) steigen würde. Gestriger Gold Preis pro Bath war 8100 Bath.

Seine Begründung:

Die Chinesen!

Er meinte damit nicht etwa die Chinesische Bevölkerung allgemein, sondern sprach von den Thailändern chinesischer Abstammung, zu denen er selbst auch gehört, würden immer grösssere Mengen an Gold bereits jetzt schon für die Zeit des nächsten Chinesischen Neujahrs Festes horten, weil die Chinesen überzeugt sind, Gold würde in Zukunft einiges teurer sein als noch heute.

Darum würden sie jetzt schon kaufen.

PS:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The PPT was given a Presidential debates curve ball when Merck announced it was going to take a major product, Vioxx, off the market. It took around 75 points off the DOW. Not to allow any dismay, the PPT went into operating mode to keep the DOW from falling apart. It worked as the DOW only fell 56 to 10,080. The DOG rose 3 to 1897.

The US economic news:

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 9/25 reported 369K vs. consensus 343K
Prior week revised to 351K from 350K
* * * *

08:30 Aug. Personal Income 0.4% vs. consensus 0.4%; Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.1%
Prior Income revised to 0.2% from 0.1%; prior spending revised to 1.1% from 0.8%.
* * * * *

10:00 August Help Wanted Index reported 37 vs. consensus 38
July reading was 37.
* * * * *

10:00 Sept. Chicago Purchasing Manager's reported 61.3 vs. consensus 58
August reading 57.3.
* * * * *

10:30 EIA reports natural gas inventories +69bcf vs. consensus +72bcf
For reference, year-ago data was +101bcf.
* * * * *

06:39 FNM FNM target of possible accounting fraud by DoJ, reports WSJ (66.25)
The criminal investigation opens a new chapter in the saga against FNM, and is the latest in the intensifying scrutiny by the government of FNM, following the agreement between FNM and OFHEO. Chief spokesman for FNM Chuck Greener said they had no knowledge of the investigation and could not comment. Note that Rep. Michael Oxley received the authority so subpoena FNM executives, according to Bloomberg (see 9/29 16:47
* * * *

SURE:

10:10am 09/30/04
Snow: global economy roaring By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The global economy is in its best shape in three decades and no major economy is in recession or facing high inflation, Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday. "Talk of 'bubbles, 'overshooting' or 'hard landings' is rarely heard these days," Snow said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Bretton Woods Committee. "We can - and should - celebrate the fact that, this year, there is no major financial crisis to talk about. Remember that in the 1990s we were preoccupied with such crises," Snow said. –END-

Another Gold Cartel groupie is feeling the heat. Rarely a week goes by when Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and others in the cabal are not cited for wrongdoing in a major league way. This is because this is the manner in which they do business. With all that GATA has come up with, how can the clueless not get it these bums have been rigging the gold price in order to make billions. What makes it more obvious is in the gold case, they have even had the blessing of the US Government and the regulatory authorities. This crowd routinely gets in trouble without this blessing. You have to be very naïve to not get it here. The gold fraud scheme was right up their alley, at the top of their money making list of con games.

Thursday September 30, 6:24 AM
AIG Faces U.S. Criminal Probe

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has opened a criminal probe into whether American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by market value, helped a major banking client move bad loans off its books, AIG said on Wednesday.

The insurer said it believes the investigation relates to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probe into whether the company's AIG Financial Products Corp. unit helped PNC Financial Services Group Inc. cloak $762 million of bad loans, inflating the bank's profit by $155 million.....

-END-

GS, China and GATA:

Bill,
I think yesterday's Goldman Sachs statement that, "Goldman sees metals boom going on — Worries about China construction slowdown 'overblown',” is like the trumpeter sounding the call to retreat. No one should know better than Goldman that intervention is failing and that nothing can stop the rise in gold and metals prices.

On another front, the news that China has finalized its takeover of Canada's largest mining company, Noranda, shows what Chinese priorities are and how they will try to recycle their enormous dollar reserves. Scarce resources will find their way into the strongest hands. The next few years ought to be real interesting for owners of metals. GATA own PMs if you want to play!

Best wishes,
Peter R.

Mining executives disagree on state of gold market

Reuters
Wednesday, September 29, 2004

DENVER -- Senior executives of the world's top two gold producers disagreed on Wednesday over the state of the market for the precious metal, often seen as a safe investment haven in economic hard times.

Kelvin Williams, marketing director for South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti, the second largest producer, was concerned that demand for jewelry has dropped off dramatically.

Consequently, he was guarded in his assessment of the gold price, which has risen steadily since 2001 from around $275 an ounce to hit a 15-year high above $430 in April this year. It has slipped some since then. On Wednesday, December gold closed at $414.70 an ounce, up 50 cents, on the COMEX in New York.

In contrast, Pierre Lassonde, president of the world's No. 1 gold producer Newmont Mining Corp., was bullish, drawing similarities to the economic situation 30 years ago.

"We still do have a kind of half-completed rally ... and as we all know, it is the COMEX and the trading positions of gold that drives the price of gold," Williams told industry executives and analysts at the Denver Gold Forum.

"Progressively, we haven't seen the interest in COMEX return to the levels of April (when gold hit its high) and we don't think there's been matching activity in OTC (over the counter). We need to see how this plays out toward the end of the year," he said.

"On the physical market, we've seen what we view as a worrying situation where in the last five years, we've seen global jewelry demand decline by almost 25 percent.

"I am almost certain that if either of our competitors in platinum or diamonds had to face a fall of 25 percent in their major source of consumption, I can imagine they would be extremely concerned."

Williams said that although the market was healthy, "in a sense, the evolutionary upward movement had stalled."

Later, Lassonde was asked his opinion of the gold market:

"Well, unlike my predecessor (Williams) who was down and out with gold, we are very positive. Jewelry accounts for 70-80 percent (of demand), but at the end of the day, gold is a monetary asset."

The Newmont executive went on to compare the current state of the world's economy with the early 1970s, saying the similarities were "absolutely eerie."

"Then you had the Vietnam War; now we have the al-Qaeda war. The Fed was printing money then and the current account deficit in the '70s prompted the French to get rid of dollars."

There was a negative real rate of interest then, and we have it now, Lassonde said, and just like 1972-1978, when the dollar lost 50 percent of its value against a basket of currencies, the dollar is relatively weak now.

-END-

Gold rush as mainland banks jump retail queue

Olivia Chung
September 30, 2004

Without waiting for Beijing's approval, banks in Guangzhou and several other mainland cities have begun retailing gold bars to investors eager to seek alternatives to China's relatively low interest rate returns and battered stock markets.

Mainland retail investors, who have long held gold in special esteem, have responded by flocking to banks in such numbers that one of them had to keep its doors open after office hours.

Beijing launched the Shanghai Gold Exchange and allowed gold trading to institutional investors and industrial end-users in October 2002 with a promise from the People's Bank of China that ``in time'' individuals would also be allowed to trade gold.

However, some commercial banks, looking for an edge in the country's increasingly competitive banking market, decided to quietly start selling gold even before the central bank gave its formal okay.

It has hardly been quiet, however. According to the Guangzhou-based Yangcheng Evening News, the city's residents flocked to buy the precious metal after local branches of China Merchants Bank set up counters to sell gold bars to individuals a week ago.

The move followed similar decisions by banks in five other cities.

Mainland consumers, like people in many other countries, have long considered gold to be a hedge against uncertain times and a powerful status symbol. As a consequence, gold jewellery has long been a big seller.

On September 22, the first day Merchants Bank offered individual gold sales, the bank's Guangzhou branches reported brisk business. At one bank, the queue of would-be buyers was so long that the bank was forced to extend its opening hours. Over the first four days, the bank sold 49 kilograms of gold bars, with one buyer putting down more than 800,000 yuan (HK$754,400) for a single purchase.

The bank's offer price is based on gold quotes from the London Metal and Shanghai Gold Exchanges.

Though some analysts claimed the Guangzhou gold rush suggests the yellow metal will soon outstrip all but stocks as the favourite investment of Chinese savers, others dismissed that as marketing hype.

Gold bars are much cheaper on an ounce-for-ounce basis than gold jewellery, said a senior analyst of Guangdong Yuebao Gold Investment Corporation in Guangzhou, which is one of the 108 trading members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Since there's no easy way for individuals to sell gold bars, he said it would be some time before investors began to speculate in it.

``Without frequent buying and selling, it can hardly be called an investment market,'' said the analyst, who would only give his surname as Hua.

He said he believed gold trading would become more commonplace as the market develops.

-END-

Postive gold news is pouring in from all over the world is shaking up the Orwellians.

Secretary Snow was out on the circuit today talking about helping the poor countries again. Why is it guys like him only care about the poor when the gold price is rallying? Looks like the desperados are as bad off as we think when it comes to having enough physical gold on hand to stop going from exploding:

A Golden Opportunity: New Report Urges IMF Gold Sales To Finance Debt Cancellation

WASHINGTON - September 29 - As G-7 Finance Ministers prepare to meet in Washington on Friday with poor country debt cancellation near the top of their agenda, a report released today by Debt and Development Coalition Ireland demonstrates the feasibility of the sale of IMF gold to fund debt cancellation.

The report, "The IMF, Gold Sales, and Multilateral Debt Cancellation" by Sony Kapoor of the New Economics Foundation in London, finds that responsible and transparent sale of the IMF's gold at a rate of 5 million ounces per year for the next twenty years could raise $30 billion with no significant impact on the world price of gold. It recommends that proceeds from the sale of IMF gold go to fund multilateral impoverished country debt cancellation.

"Given the devastation that the debt is wreaking on peoples' lives, it is imperative that the G-7, and the IMF and the World Bank in their meetings this weekend, take responsible action and cancel the debt," said Jean Somers, Coordinator of Debt and Development Coalition Ireland. "This report offers gold sales as a viable solution to the debt crisis. By taking a close look at the impact the sale of gold by many rich countries over last 10 years, it debunks the argument that IMF gold sales would lower gold prices." .

The research is particularly timely because G-7 nations are coming into Friday's talks where much of the discussion is likely to center on how debt cancellation will be financed: this report offers gold sales as a strong and viable option.

"The sale of IMF gold is an approach to financing poor country debt cancellation that should please all G7 nations," said Neil Watkins, a spokesperson for Jubilee USA Network. "The IMF is sitting atop a mountain of outrageously undervalued gold. With thousands of people dying due to HIV/AIDS in Africa and elsewhere, the sale of IMF gold could easily finance the IMF and World Bank's share of desperately needed debt cancellation for impoverished nations."

The report points out that gold only represents 2% of total resources available to the Fund, so a sale would not significantly impact the Fund's operations. The paper also considers the potential impact of gold sales by the IMF on the world price of gold. It documents recent large sales by rich country central banks and suggests that even if the sale were to potentially impact the world price of gold, several options were available to mitigate the effects.

"Selling IMF gold to help alleviate poverty must surely take precedence over the long term portfolio rebalancing needs of rich country central banks which continue to sell large quantities of gold " says Kapoor, the report's author, who will be in Washington this week, while suggesting that IMF gold could be sold under the existing Central Bank Gold Agreement under which rich country central banks plan to sell 80 million ounces of gold over the next five years. "Instead of selling 16 million ounces of gold a year, these central banks could reduce their quota to 11 million ounces and let the IMF sell 5 million ounces with no market impact."

The report also examines the impact of gold sales on HIPC countries; argues for sales rather than a revaluation approach; and considers precedents for the sale of gold.

-END-

How SICKENING! If these low-lifes would stop rigging the price, it would soar. The economies of many of these countries would pick up substantially and give these people a chance to help themselves. The IMF, Snow and The Gold Cartel are a rotten group.

An update from my friend, Mahendra who continues to be hot as a pistol:

Dear Members,

Gold has been playing hide & seek with the investors but this is a game that cannot go on for long. For the last two weeks, Gold has been in hiding but since this is not a rule of the game, it will have to come to an end.

I have faith that gold will never break any rule or defy the instructions of Mars and Jupiter. That is what I would like to see in next 48 hours. Final 9 days I and gold has together. I may change my out look on, If gold doesn't perform in 9 days by reaching new high 2004.

All major currencies should strongly rise against the USD.

Starting from Friday, the stock market should fall. This will continue for 14 days after which there will be a slight bounce back lasting for 3 days. Following the brief resurgence, the drop will then recommence. It is a part of nature that in everything, correction usually comes after each fall.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Some well meaning Café members continue to confuse outside contributed market commentary in the MIDAS with GATA. Unless specifically designated, it usually has nothing to do with GATA. It is presented for your Café paying membership information and enjoyment.

Nice to see:

Klondike Star Reports 16 g/t Gold Over 2m From Lone Star Zone

SEATTLE, September 29, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Hans Boge, President of Klondike Star Mineral Corporation (OTCBB:KDSM) is pleased to announce that ongoing chip sampling of a previously untested trench at the northwest end of the Lone Star zone intersected 16.11g/t gold over 2.0m (0.47oz/ton over 6.6 feet) collected from rusty quartz-muscovite schist. This sample, together with rotary drill hole 93LS07 50m to the west, represent the northwest limit of the previously defined Lone Star zone. Hole 93LS07, drilled by Kennecott in 1993, intersected 2.90g/t gold over 12.2m (including 8.65g/t over 1.5m) and 3.98g/t gold over 6.1m (including 10.10 g/t over 1.5m). The former producing Lone Star mine is located 400m to the southeast…..

Klondike Star Mineral Corporation is developing 5 mineralized zones on a 60 square km land position underlying the site of the Klondike Gold Rush. The area has been in constant Placer production since the discovery of gold in 1896. Thousands of ounces of gold continue to be produced from placer mining operations each year on streams in the Klondike….

-END-

The gold and silver shares were rockin’ all day. The XAU leaped 2.56 to 101.95, while the HUI jumped 7.40 to 231.78. The boat is leaving port. Even saw some life in the smaller golds. Samex came to life, lifting 17 cents to 94 cents, a huge move percentage-wise. We are not there yet, as mainstream is gold/silver share clueless. When that changes and they want in the coming Gold Rush, there will be a gold/silver share buying panic.

There is every reason for the price of silver and gold to go bananas. For their prices to be this low is absurd. We know why that is the case, a case which The Gold Cartel won’t give up on without a major fight. Fortunately for our camp, we know what they have done and why. We also know they don’t have the physical gold to win their war. They will lose.

Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Ulfur

Nachdem ich Deine, und die der anderen User zur sogenannten 6 Dollar Regel nachgelesen habe, muss ich Dir Recht geben. Die 6 Dollar Regel wurde wie es aussieht wirklich wiederholt gebrochen. Selbst wenn ich den Zeitraum wie Bognair vorschlägt nur auf den New York Tages Gold Handel anwende, ist diese Regel verletzt worden, und Gold hat diese Regel mit einem Anstieg von über 7.- Dollar, oder sogar 8.- Dollar, entgegen der Aussage von Murphy sicherlich an einigen wenigen Gold Handelstagen gebrochen.

Keine Regel ohne ausnahme!

Dass diese Regel an wenigen Tagen gebrochen wurde, heisst nun aber nicht, dass Murphy mit seiner These einer 6 Dollar Regel nun einen falschen Sachverhalt im Goldhandel beschreibt, und unterstreichen wollte.

Nach wie vor trifft diese Regel in einer Bandbreite von Plus/Minus 1 Dollar an den allermeisten Tagen zu, und es ist ganz klar, dass praktisch immer am oberen Rande eines Goldpreisanstieges sehr starke Verkäufe einsetzen, und einen höheren Preisanstieg Kappen.

Bei Kursabfällen scheint mir eine Begrenzung nicht, oder höchstens bei sehr starken Widersatänden im Gold Chart zu beobachten. Wiederholt wurden aber auch solche Widerstände aber nach unten durchbrochen wie wenn sie gar nicht existiert hätten.

Ich erinnere mich selbst an mehrere Handelstage, an denen Gold bis zum US Handelsschluss, um mehr als die besagten 6.- Dollar, oder mehr pro Unze gestiegen ist, um dann nur Minuten später wieder im Direkt Access Gold Handel, bei denen nur gerade eine handvoll auserwählte Händler Zugang haben, zu einer Zeit wenn die wichtigen Goldhandelsplätze und Börsen rund um die Welt alle geschlossen sind, die Preise sofort wieder auf Talfahrt geschickt wurden. Wenn Du täglich die Ergebnisse des Direkt Access Gold Handels der letzten 4 Jahre vergleichst, kannst Du feststellen, dass bis vor etwa 1 Jahr die Preise praktisch, abgesehen von wenigen Ausnahmen, immer nachgaben. Erst seit etwa einem Jahr ist eine Aenderung an diesem Kurs Verhalten festzustellen, und nun sind auch etliche Goldpreis Anstiege über Nacht festzustellen.

Jedoch überwiegen die Preisrückschläge immer noch mit ca. 6 zu 4.

Falls Du einen Thread eröffnen würdest, in dem von Dir selbst, oder anderen User, die Tages-Schluss Kurse USA, und die Goldpreis Schlusskurse des Direkt Acces Handels eintragen werden können, würde sich mit Sicherheit innerhalb relativ kurzer Zeit ein sehr aussagekräftiger Chart ergeben, der uns allen helfen könnte eine 6 Dollar Regel zu erkennen. Ebenso könnte uns dies helfen auf Sicht von einigen Monaten, Veränderungen im Gold Kursverhalten zu erkennen, die vielleicht sogar Rückschlüsse auf das weitere Kursverhalten des Goldes zulassen könnten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.finanznachrichten.d…04-10/artikel-3907939.asp

Freitag, 1. Oktober 2004

Amex Gold Bugs Index nimmt direkten Weg...

…zum Kreuzwiderstand bei 240,81 Punkten.

Amex Gold Bugs Index(HUI) – Kursstand: 231,38 Punkte
Aktueller Wochenchart seit 02.2002 (1 Kerze = 1 Woche)

Diagnose: Als relativer Outperformer präsentierte sich in den Vorwochen der Amex Gold Bugs Index. Der Kurs konsolidierte die Rally bis Ende 2003 nach dem Rückfall unter den Support bei 207,75 Punkten aus und konnte sich auf dem bei 173,3 Punkten liegenden 38er Retracement stabilisieren. Nach dem Ausbruch aus einem symmetrischen Dreieck nach oben scheiterte der Kurs zunächst nochmals am Widerstand bei 207,75 Punkten sowie dem in diesem Bereich liegenden Abwärtstrend, in der Vorwoche erfolgte aber der Ausbruch nach oben. Kurzfristig ist der Index jetzt auf direktem Weg an den Widerstand bei 240,81 Punkten sowie zur dort liegenden gebrochenen Aufwärtstrendlinie.

Prognose: Kurzfristig dürfte der Kurs in diesem Bereich scheitern. Kann dabei die steile Aufwärtstrendlinie der Vorwochen nicht gehalten werden, ist nochmals mit einem Pullback in den Bereich 207,72 Punkte zu rechnen. Das übergeordnet bullische Szenario bleibt aber auch in diesem Fall ungefährdet. Nach der erfolgten Korrektur und dem Ausbruch aus dem mittelfristigen Abwärtstrend bietet sich weiteres Potential bis 258,6 Punkte mittelfristig.

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http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm?id=23217724

Goldpreis visiert mit 420-USD-Marke Sechsmonatshoch an

SYDNEY (Dow Jones-VWD)--Der Goldpreis nimmt Anlauf auf die zuletzt im März 2004 erreichte Marke von 420 USD je Feinunze. Gegen 7.58 Uhr MESZ kostet das Edelmetall 418,75 USD, nachdem es am Morgen getrieben von Leereindeckungen japanischer Akteure auch schon bis auf 419,50 von zuvor 417,60 USD gestiegen war. Händler berichten von weiter leicht positiver Stimmung für das Gold, das über der soliden Unterstützung von 417/418 USD liege. Sorgen über die Auswirkungen des hohen Ölpreises auf die Inflation seien ein Grund für die Nachfrage nach Gold als Absicherungsinvestment. Daneben spiele der schwache Dollar für den Goldpreisanstieg die entscheidende Rolle.

(ENDE) Dow Jones Newswires/1.10.2004/gos

01.10.2004

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http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1096651466.php

Relativity

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By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

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http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1096642893.php

Asian Doubts Regarding the Dollar

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By: Gary North, Mises on Money

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldLetter/1096648965.php

Gold Is On the Move!

By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc.

Zitat

“Without waiting for Beijing's approval, banks in Guangzhou and several other mainland cities have begun retailing gold bars to investors eager to seek alternatives to China's relatively low interest rate returns and battered stock markets.”

Zitat

“Mainland retail investors, who have long held gold in special esteem, have responded by flocking to banks in such numbers that one of them had to keep its doors open after office hours.”

Zitat

“According to the Guangzhou-based Yangcheng Evening News, the city's residents flocked to buy the precious metal after local branches of China Merchants Bank set up counters to sell gold bars to individuals a week ago.”

Zitat

“At one bank, the queue of would-be buyers was so long that the bank was forced to extend its opening hours.” Olivia Chung, thestandard.com, 9-30-2004

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http://http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={E92795E2-EF64-4D40-8CB3-E6E48B422957}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

China recommits to flexible yuan

No date set for change to currency policy

By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:20 AM ET Oct. 1, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Chinese finance officials repeated Friday their commitment to move toward a flexible, market-based foreign exchange rate but didn't outline specific plans to do so after consultations with U.S. economic officials Thursday.

In a joint statement following the meetings, the U.S. said it supports move toward a flexible exchange rate "as rapidly as possible."

The value of the yuan is fixed at about 8.28 to the dollar. The statement didn't rule out the interim step of a wider currency band for the currency nor did it provide a schedule for floating the yuan.

The value of the yuan had been a sore point in U.S.-Chinese relations, but the commitment by the Chinese last year and again on Friday to "push ahead firmly and steadily to a market-based flexible exchange rate" has satisfied the Bush administration, at least publicly.

"Both sides acknowledged the value of ongoing bilateral discussions on these issues," the statement said.

Privately, administration officials express frustration at the slow pace of progress.

U.S. critics of China's foreign-currency policy -- including business and labor leaders -- say it keeps the yuan artificially low, undercutting the competitiveness of U.S. goods. Maintaining the peg has also served to keep U.S. interest rates low as China's central bank buys hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. Treasurys to keep the yuan valued at 8.28.

Chinese officials say their capital markets and financial institutions aren't strong enough to allow full flexibility in the exchange rate. The U.S. Treasury has provided technical assistance and advice to the Chinese to speed the process.

The flip-side of the currency issue is the growing U.S. current account deficit, which reached a record $166 billion in the second quarter.

In the statement, U.S. officials said "strong growth and favorable U.S. investment opportunities have led to an expansion of the U.S. current-account deficit, but these pressures should diminish as international growth becomes more balanced and widespread."

The Chinese repeated their commitment to reform the banking system and to create strong and efficient capital markets.

For the first time, the Chinese have been invited to attend sessions of the Group of Seven meetings later Friday ahead of the weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington.

Both nations noted "with satisfaction" the favorable outlook for 2005, notwithstanding the risks from high oil prices. There was no mention of the risk that some analysts see of a hard landing in the Chinese economy, but there was praise for "policy measures taken in China to assure sustained and stable growth."

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch. Corbett B. Daly contributed to this report.

Milliarden-Steuerloch des Bundes gegenüber Schätzwert

http://www.reuters.de/newsPack…oryID=595023&section=news

Freitag 1 Oktober, 2004 18:10 CET

Berlin (Reuters) - Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel kalkuliert in seinem Nachtragshaushalt für dieses Jahr nach Angaben aus Regierungskreisen mit sinkenden Steuereinnahmen, die um gut vier Milliarden Euro unter der Steuerschätzung vom Mai liegen.

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In den Kreisen wurden damit am Freitag Zahlen bestätigt, die das "Handelsblatt" zuvor in seinem Online-Dienst genannt hatte. Demnach sind die Steuereinnahmen im Nachtragshaushalt nur noch mit 184,7 Milliarden Euro eingeplant. In seinem ursprünglichen Haushaltsplan hatte Eichel mit 197,7 Milliarden Euro gerechnet, also 13 Milliarden Euro mehr. Im Mai veranschlagten dann aber die Steuerschätzer die Steuereinnahmen des Bundes bereits nur noch auf 188,8 Milliarden Euro.

Der Bundesbank-Gewinn ist den Kreisen zufolge im Nachtragshaushalt 2004 mit 248 Millionen Euro enthalten. Ursprünglich waren hier 3,5 Milliarden Euro erwartet worden. Insgesamt gehe der revidierte Etatentwurf von Ausgaben von 255,6 Milliarden Euro aus und damit 1,7 Milliarden Euro weniger als im ursprünglichen Budget.

Eichel (SPD) hatte vor wenigen Tagen angekündigt, er werde am kommenden Mittwoch dem Kabinett seinen Nachtragshaushalt vorlegen, der eine neue Rekord-Neuverschuldung von rund 43,7 Milliarden Euro beinhalten werde. Damit wird der Ansatz für die Investitionen des Bundes um 19,1 Milliarden Euro überschritten.

Diese Überschreitung ist nach Maßgabe des Grundgesetzes nur ausnahmsweise dann erlaubt, wenn das gesamtwirtschaftliche Gleichgewicht gestört ist.

"Diese Ausnahmesituation ist im Jahr 2004 gegeben"

zitierte das "Handelsblatt" aus dem Entwurf für den Nachtragshaushalt. Der Nachtragshaushalt umfasst auch deutliche Mehrausgaben für die Arbeitslosenhilfe und das Wohngeld.

Dollar heute hoch - Gold zeigt sich dabei, heute sehr stark!

Toll, einfach toll !

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