Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

October 26 - Gold $426 down $2.20 - Silver $7.31 down 1 cent

Time For This Groundhog Day Nonsense To End

Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.....Albert Einstein

GO GATA!!!

This gold watching drill has become extremely tedious. I long for the day to comment on the market in a different manner. For years, no matter what happens in the world, it is always the same: market capped by the crooks. Yesterday 10,153 new longs showed up to bring the open interest to a new high of 320,506. The funds keep buying and buying, while The Gold Cartel keeps selling and selling to prevent gold from taking out $430 – which could be a disaster for their camp. How interesting they are so sensitive about this price level they even managed to close DEC gold yesterday at $429.90. A coincidence? I think not.

As has been the case so often this past year, the bums waited until after the PM Fix in London to take gold lower. The cash market was firm enough around the world to bring it in at $427.50. This occurs time and time again because the cabal forces don’t want to compete with the physical market buyers. Once this pricing is finished with for the day, they, for the most part, only have to contend with spec buyers in the paper market on Comex. That makes it much easier for the cabal to take gold down if they are going after it.

Now that the griping is out of the way, it is hard for me to see the Groundhog crowd winning this battle for the umpteenth time. The gold fundamentals are just too overwhelming. This capping seems more of an all out effort to prevent the price of gold from exploding ahead of the election. The key will be the cash market. If it rises to the occasion because there are too many buyers competing for the available supply, The Gold Cartel’s efforts to flush out the specs will be for naught. This is why the market hasn’t dumped over the past month, even as the spec open interest continues to climb. Based on John Brimelow’s calming input, and our STALKER information regarding Chinese buying, we have a real shot here – a shot the GATA ARMY will take out The Gold Cartel before the Red Sox eliminate the Cardinals in the World Series.

Supporting this notion:

*The dollar has broken down and has a long way to go. There is little on the horizon which is likely to rally the greenback in a substantial way. Sharply higher interest rates could do it. However, long-term rates are on their lows at the moment, not highs.

*It seems high priced oil is here to stay. Most of the Wall Street pundits were looking for the price to tank by now. Instead it continues to grind its way up.

*Commodity prices are likely to take off again. All the CRB needs to make new 23-year highs is for the grains to come alive. Even without an ebullient grain market, the CRB only needs a few more ticks to the upside to make those highs. It finished the day at 288.19, up 1.62. On October 11 it closed at 288.23.

As is, the bad guys failed to put a serious dent in the price of gold. They had it down to $423.90, filling the gap it left yesterday. And that was it. Locals were forced to cover on the close, leaving the price within an earshot away from taking on $430 again.

Just in: our veteran sources on the Comex floor called today "picture perfect" for the bulls, as gold "filled the gap" and rallied late. Regarding the burgeoning open interest, the same source believes it is not a major concern this time (although the local floor traders are a bit obsessed over it). To the contrary he believes it could jump another 40 to 50,000 contracts, especially when the gold ETFs go into action.

The silver bears must be a bit bummed. After yesterday’s lackluster performance, they had their chance to really put the kibosh on the price. Whatever they tried today, it did not work very well. Silver also filled its gap from yesterday, leaving only the breakaway one at the $7 level. Technically, all systems go here with Morgan Stanley still heavily short as far as we know.

The silver open interest gained 176 contracts to 115,497.

December silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C4

Two camps:

*GATA’s Mike Bolser has his subscribers on full alert about a Gold Cartel ambush. His work tells him the bad guys are going to go all out to take gold down. No doubt in my mind he is right. That is their INTENT. The recent price action tells us so. However, this time I don’t believe they can pull it off. They are not omnipotent and are vulnerable to a bushwhacking. We are due for our Commercial Signal Failure.

*Mahendra saw today’s dip as a buying opportunity, putting out this alert to his subscribers:

Dear Members,
Again a great buying opportunity has come in gold and silver.
Gold is now at 424.50
Silver is at 7.27
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra

Don’t like to fade this seer. So far so good. Gold and silver rallied off their bottoms soon after this alert surfaced.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: Different this time?

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.29, PM $7.12, with world gold at $428 and $427.20. Ample for legal imports. An impressively resilient performance. Reuters carries a story from Singapore quoting dealers reporting steady demand, notwithstanding the price increases:

"Premiums for gold bars in the city-state were steady at 20 U.S. cents an ounce… to London spot prices. That suggested ample demand had helped offset the impact of profit taking, which normally happens each time bullion prices shoot up."

Japan was skeptical. On volume equal to 23,694 contracts – 4.5% above Monday – open interest fell the equivalent of 1,184 contracts. The active contract was down 2 yen, and world gold went out $1.45 below the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 57,866 contracts. Open interest soared 10,253 lots to a new record, 320,506 contracts.)

As suggested yesterday, massive selling blocked any attempt to move gold up in NY yesterday. ScotiaMocatta notes:

"Funds were in the market buying right from the opening bell, however, dealers were happy to hit any bid that was shown to the market. Gold only managed a high of 430.50/431.00 despite funds buying somewhere between 400,000 and 500,000 ounces."

Mitsui-Sydney suggests one fund probably bought 500,000 ozs. Gold in fact traded in a $1 range throughout the NY day, while absorbing fresh selling equal to 31.9 tonnes, close to a record.

Consequently, the absence of a rout today is rather surprising – all the usual ingredients were present.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW rocketed up 137 to 9887 and dragged the DOG (1928, up 15) with it. It’s Groundhog Day everywhere. As always, the US stock market came right back just as it looked ready to roll over and play dead. The rally even had most of the pundits on CNBC stumped. Must have been all the good news:

*The oil price rose 63 cents per barrel to $55.17, which puts it right back up at its all-time high closing level.

December crude oil
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/C4

*The Consumer Confidence number was weaker than expected:

10:00 Oct. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence reported 92.8 vs. consensus 94
Prior reading revised to 96.7 from 96.8.
* * * * *

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers turned more glum in October, beset by everything from soaring energy prices to relentless violence in Iraq and the increasingly bitter end of the presidential election campaign.

The Conference Board's gauge of consumer confidence fell to 92.8 in October, the lowest level in seven months, from 96.7 the prior month, the private business group said on Tuesday. The reading was below economists' expectations for a dip to 94.0. –END-

*I know what it was. A sigh of relief, cause it says so:

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained, led by insurers, after the resignation of Marsh & McLennan Cos.' chief executive officer raised optimism the company will avoid criminal prosecution in New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation of the industry. ``It might not be as bad as what we feared'' for the insurance industry, said Joseph Williams III, who manages the $200 million Commerce Growth Fund in Kansas City, Missouri. ``It's a relief rally.''

Make it more like a PPT rally. Wonderful news, investors now have less concern the CEO’s running their companies are less likely to end up in the clink.

An August 9th MIDAS revisited. Something to keep on the front burner for the coming weeks. Warren Buffet has become the second richest person in the world for very good reasons. Betting against him is a sure way to the poor house:

Buffett increases bet against dollar to $19 bln

NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett increased Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s bet against the U.S. dollar to $19 billion at the end of the first half of 2004, his holding company disclosed in a regulatory filing.

The value of the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's contracts in foreign currency had increased by $8 billion by June 30, the company said its quarterly filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Buffett previously disclosed making investments in five foreign currencies in a belief the dollar will decline in the long run as a result of the United States' ballooning trade deficit. He has never specified which currencies he was investing in, only saying they were major…. –END-

Even Fidel says NO MAS to the dollar:

Cuba Ends Use of Dollars in Businesses

By ANITA SNOW, Associated Press Writer

HAVANA - Moving to wean its communist economic system from the U.S. currency, Cuba said that dollars will no longer be accepted at island businesses and stores in a dramatic change in how commercial transactions have been done here in more than a decade.

The resolution announced Monday by Cuba's Central Bank seemed aimed at finding new sources for foreign reserves and regain more control over its own economy as the U.S. government steps up efforts to prevent dollars from reaching the island as part of a strategy to undermine Fidel Castro (news - web sites)'s government.

The REST here!!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…a_dollar&cid=509&ncid=716

-END-

Food for thought:

Hello Bill,
Just a couple of thoughts on the charts...

On the Gold lease rate chart I've noticed that the one month rate has gone into backwardization twice in the last two months. That is very unusual to me. I think the banks control these rates for the most part. While they can probably prevent much stress showing in the lease rates, perhaps this inversion of the front month could be likened to a bearing squealing on a strained engine.

Secondly, it has been a long grind since Midas began a daily commentary on the awkward behavior and fundamentals of this market. I agree with your contention that chart analysis is of little value in a managed market. But as I pondered the value of these years of frustration I looked at the Kitco five year Gold chart. Look what a pleasant, consistent upward slope it has!

5-year gold chart
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi

Again the word managed comes to mind. I believe the Banking Derivative Crisis report had an impact. Since that time, what other option has made any sense in the context of preventing a melt down. A slow venting of the pressure from a boiler near the point of explosion. (While there are still enough limited resources to pull it off)

Looking at that chart makes it all worthwhile. NOT a great time to be short precious metals.

Thank you for everything!
RH

More food for even more thought:

I hate being right. The CABAL used paper gold to cap the market in both NY and London yesterday and early today. Lease rates don't seem too active

although Kitco is slow in updating. Silver is actually down to where it was before the dollar collapse. Gold is barely registering that it is priced in paper that is worth 1% less than Friday. Right now, silver is lower in real value than it was on Friday, if you factor in the 1% drop in the dollar.

In fact, because of the manipulation, neither silver or gold have been stellar. Look at silver: in 2000, silver was about $4.90/oz, but the dollar index was at 122. Now, silver is at $$7.29/oz but the dollar is at 85. The dollars are smaller! If you take the inflation out, the present price of silver in year 2000 sized dollars is $5.50/oz. That's up about 60 cents or so, or about 3% per year over the past 4 years. Mind you that's a real valuation gain on top of inflation, not with inflation included, so silver has performed. It's just not the manic bull market that spin casters seem to spin. Gold is actually up about 0% per year in real terms based on a year 2000 price of 280 and a present price of 400 discounted for shrunk dollars down to, well, $280. You see, the median price for gold this year has been $400 and the median price for gold in 2000 was 280. That means the present price of gold is up 30%, but the dollars have shrunk by the same amount. That means that gold is tracking the US dollar's decline almost exactly. Where's the bull, or more exactly, where's the meat in the bull? Gold is monetary insurance, not an investment vehicle. It is interesting that silver turns out to be both an investment vehicle and insurance, but you might expect that based on the better supply/demand fundamentals. In conclusion, gold is still cheap in that it has not really moved up in VALUE at all, while silver is still under performing its fundamentals.

One might ask, why invest in pms at all? For a Canadian, with a rising currency, that's become a good question. For an American, every dollar put in gold has stopped shrinking, and the value of the same investment in silver is actually a profit. Can the same be said for bonds and the general stock market? Most people are looking at a paper loss of 10% in the stock market, and the paper itself has shrunk an additional 30% for a grand total of 40%.

I can't do the same calculation for the bond market, but I can say that the paper has shrunk 30% since 2000, and yield rates of 4% even with compounding, are just not going to cut it.
Regards, Rhody

More gold supply problems for the future:

Russia Gold Mining Output To Decrease?
26.10.2004 9:47

The Russia’s precious metals mining output are likely to decrease by 25 percent by 2007 due to gold and platinum resources are in exhausted condition, according to an announcement of the Minister of Natural Resources of Russia.

It’s necessary to invest about $600 mln annually in order to improve the situation with precious metals resources. However, large investors are afraid of high risks and instability.

Therefore the local authorities came to conclusion that one must develop the program of the regional mining industry aimed at investments attraction.

-END-

Reduced gold production from Barrick:

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) reported slightly lower third-quarter earnings, due to lower gold sales and higher costs, partly offset by higher realized gold prices. In the third quarter, net income was $32 million or 6 cents a share, down from $35 million or 7 cents a year earlier. The latest quarter included a $9 million non-hedge derivative gain and an after-tax opportunity cost of $9 million relating to its hedge position. The Thomson First Call mean estimate was for earnings of 4 cents a share in the latest quarter. Revenues declined 9% to $500 million from $549 million. It said production was 1.23 million ounces of gold at an average total cash cost of $218 an ounce, down from 1.48 million ounces at $180 an ounce last year. It said this reflects mine sequencing at Pierina and the processing of lower-grade ore at Eskay Creek, Hemlo and Bulyanhulu. It said it is on track to meet its production forecast for 2004 of 4.9-5 million ounces of gold at an average total cash cost of $205-$215 an ounce. Barrick said it reduced its gold hedge position by 200,000 ounces in the third quarter to 13.7 million ounces, leaving 84% of its reserves unhedged. It said it has reduced its hedge position by 1.85 million ounces so far this year and "will continue to opportunistically reduce its hedge position." Barrick is a gold producer.

-END-

Two points to make here on Barrick:

*The price of gold was low in the 3rd quarter. Barrick only covers 200,000 ounces when they are out telling the investment world they believe the gold price is headed for $480??? That makes no sense….on the surface anyway. What does make sense is that The Gold Cartel wouldn’t LET THEM cover any more than that piddly amount – as compared to their hedge book. Will they cover the next 200,000 ounces at $460? What a dog of a stock.

*Small as Barrick’s covering was, it still was producer covering and supportive to the gold price. Those out there who continue to cite producer selling as contributing to the price-capping remain out of it.

The senior gold shares are exhibiting some zest these days. They roared back from an early beating. The XAU only fell .34 to 105.62, while the HUI closed at 237.89 after making a 233.14 bottom. If the HUI takes out 240, it should run, really run. Look how many times it has been turned back at this level:

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

Today’s down day has me in a better mood than yesterday’s blatant price-capping up one. Reason is today’s action gives reasonable hope the cabal creeps might get stuffed this time around. My take is we only need some supportive outside market event for the gold bulls to go after the bad guys with a vengeance. The gold weekly chart is a powerful one. It is easy to comprehend what has The Gold Cartel so concerned. Should gold break out above $430, it could unleash powerful forces which could propel the price up both sharply and quickly – their worst nightmare. The quick part, if it occurs, is devastating because it will send the option volatilities skyrocketing. THAT is what could set off a gold derivatives neutron bomb.

Gold weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

My smeller tells me the bad guys are in deep trouble. Keep your fingers crossed and remember:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Butler's Bullseye

By: Theodore Butler

October 26, 2004 –

Just a few quick comments on the current state of the markets, including the market structure, as defined by the COTs. Using the latest report, and adjusting for the probable change since the Tuesday cut-off, we are at an historic extreme in both COMEX gold and silver, in one very important measurement. While the net short position of the commercial dealers approaches the all-time extremes seen last March (just before the crushing sell-offs), a closer look at the non-commercial category indicates we’ve already exceeded the all-time extremes.

Looking at the gross (not net) long position in the gold and silver non-commercial category, we have an extrapolated larger position than ever before. It’s reasonable to assume that this historic gross long position is due to tech hedge fund buying. I think this is significant because the tech funds have become the sole mover of the markets (though control by the dealers.) This sets the stage for fireworks at some point.

Whether we sell off at some point and the dealers liquidate these tech fund longs at lower prices, as has always occurred, or whether the dealers get overrun for the first time, no one knows. Certainly, I don’t know. But I do know that if we do sell off sharply, it will be because the tech funds were tricked once again. If the dealers make any move to cover their net short position, we will explode in price, as they have been the only sellers.

Further, if we do sell-off, it will provide yet another opportunity for the miners who have done nothing to date about the silver manipulation, to do something constructive. - either to speak out or buy some real silver. How many chances do these guys need?

In other (good) news, the Central Fund of Canada (CEF) announced a new share offering in which roughly 6 million ounces of real silver was bought and will be taken off the market. Thus, the demand for silver remains strong. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get all this bought and paid for silver actually delivered. My guess is not quickly.

-- Posted 26 October, 2004

Kurzfassung:

• Wir sind gegenwärtig an einem historischen extremen Punkt bei der Messung der Comex-Daten angelangt, sowohl bei den commercal dealers als auch bei den non-commercial Kategorie (Anmerkung: gemeint ist hier u.a. auch der absolute Spitzenwert der Spekulanten mit über 70 % Anteil)
• Bei der extremen gross long-Position kaufen technische Hedge Fonds.
• Der Central Fund of Canada hat angekündigt, dass sie neue Aktien herausgeben. Davon entfallen ca. 6 Mio. Unzen auf Silber. Von daher bleibt die Nachfrage nach Silber stark. Es wird interessant zu sehen sein wie lang sie benötigen das Silber zu kaufen und wie lange die Auslieferung dauert (Anmerkung: Anspielung auf die letzten Lieferprobleme)

Zitat

Original von Silbertaler
...
It will be interesting to see how long it takes to get all this bought and paid for silver actually delivered. My guess is not quickly.

-- Posted 26 October, 2004

...Es wird interessant zu sehen sein wie lang sie benötigen das Silber zu kaufen und wie lange die Auslieferung dauert (Anmerkung: Anspielung auf die letzten Lieferprobleme)

Eine Frage: sind Lieferprobleme nicht erst dann interessant, wenn es sich um kleine bis mittlere Liefermengen handelt?

Grüße

extrel

>JP.Morgan Vorhersage: für 2005 Gold 435USD; für 2006 Gold 451 USD.
Gold wird zunehmend als alternative Anlageklasse betrachtet, da der Dollar wg. der Zwillingsdefizite über mittlere Sicht gefährdet ist, und der Euro wg. der schwachen Wirtschaftslage ebenfalls nicht ideal ist.

Auf der Angebotsseite schwindet die Furcht vor hohen Zentralbankverkäufen und wg. der Randstärke kämpft die Goldproduktion. Auf der Nachfrageseite bleibt Indien positiv und zunehmende Nachfrage wird auch aus China erwartet. <

Expectations Rising For Gold
- October 27 2004
Australasian Investment Review –

(AIR) With the US twin deficits (also see AIR 27) seen as threatening the USD over the medium term and with the euro not providing the ideal alternative due to Europe’s poor economic record, the analysts at JP Morgan feel gold is viewed from an increasingly positive perspective as an alternative asset class.

On the supply side of the equation the analysts are now less concerned about supply issues, with fears of excessive Central Bank selling now dissipated somewhat and gold mine production is seen as struggling under the influence of the strong rand. From a demand perspective, India is viewed as remaining a positive while increased affluence and surplus personal cash are expected to boost demand from China.

With these factors in mind, the analysts have raised their gold price forecasts by 13% to US$435/oz for 2005 and by 16% to US$451/oz for 2006. Their long term price forecast has also been increased, by US$15 to US$400/oz. JP Morgan’s higher forecasts follow similar moves by several other brokers, including UBS, Merrill Lynch, ABN Amro Morgans and Smith Barney Citigroup recently.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=5&id=853

Interessant wäre noch gewesen, die alten Vorhersagen von JP Morgan zum Goldpreis 2004 zu hören.

Vielleicht sind die Voraussagen von JP Morgan ebenso erstaunlich präzise wie die der Weltbank, die folgende Metallpreise in 2004 (vom 24.06.03) erwartete:

Gold 300 $/toz
Silber 480 c/toz
Kupfer 1800 $/mt
Nickel 8500 $/mt
Aluminium 1425 $/mt
Blei 51 c/kg
Zink 92 c/kg
Crude oil, average 22 $/bbl

Mir scheint, daß kann Mahendra besser,als die Wirtschaftswissenschaftler der Weltbank

extrel,

es gab bzgl. den Central Fund of Canada mehrere Meldungen und auch Gerüchte, dass die letzten Unzen aus dem Kauf Anfang des Jahres (auch mehrere Mio. Unzen Silber) erst vor 1-2 Monaten ausgeliefert wurden (!!!). Der Central Fund of Canada mußte aufgrund von Lieferschwierigkeiten ziemlich lange auf die Auslieferung warten.

Ich glaube dies ist ein Indiz für die aktuelle Lage, wenn es darum geht größere Silberbestände physisch zu kaufen.

Gruß

Silbertaler

Silbertaler

bei grösseren Bestellungen kann dir keiner die Ware in 2 Tagen liefern denn niemand liefert aus dem Lager ausser die Zentralbank. Selbst für Autos (auch bei Überproduktion) gibt es keine Lager.

Zitat

Original von yoyo
Silbertaler

bei grösseren Bestellungen kann dir keiner die Ware in 2 Tagen liefern denn niemand liefert aus dem Lager ausser die Zentralbank. Selbst für Autos (auch bei Überproduktion) gibt es keine Lager.

yoyo,
ich bin Laie, entschuldige deswegen bitte mein in Deinen Augen wahrscheinlich dümmliches nachfragen.

Wenn niemand aus dem Lager liefern kann, dann sind diese also leer, oder?
War das auch in der Vergangenheit immer so?
Wie wird dann der Bedarf gedeckt? Durch die laufende Produktion? Hier höre ich immer wieder von einem Produktionsdefizit.

Du schreibst die Zentralbanken liefern aus dem Lager. Wie gross sind dort die Lagerbestände?

Sind 6 Millionen Unzen (200tonnen) für schlappe 42 Millionen Dollar für den Weltmarkt bereits eine grössere Bestellung?

Danke bereits vorab für eine Antwort.

Smartie

yoyo,

wir reden hier ja auch nicht von 1-2 Tagen. Der Kauf erfolgte Anfang des Jahres, die Auslieferungen zogen sich über zig Monate hin (so ca. 8-9 Monate dauerte es bis die letzte Unze geliefert wurde).

Hier kann man nicht mehr von einer normalen Liefersituation sprechen !

Gruß

Silbertaler

von Nando Sommerfeldt

Berlin - Die Rohstoff-Rallye geht weiter. Im Schatten der Ölpreis-Hausse hat auch der Goldpreis einen neuen Rekord markiert, und ein 16-Jahreshoch erklommen. Grund für die jüngste Preisrallye: "Derzeit bestimmt vor allem der Dollar die Entwicklung des Goldes", erklärt Carsten Roemheld, Rohstoffexperte für Adig Investmentfonds. "Schwächelt der Greenback, profitiert das Edelmetall davon. Diese Korrelation war bereits in den vergangenen Monaten verstärkt zu beobachten."

Trotz des Rekordniveaus dürfte die Stimmung auch weiterhin pro Gold bleiben. Denn da sich immer mehr Marktteilnehmer von der risikobehafteten US-Währung abwenden, gibt es genug Treibstoff für eine Fortsetzung der Rohstoff-Hausse. "Nachdem die 430 Dollar je Feinunze erreicht sind, ist es sehr wahrscheinlich, daß wir in den kommenden Wochen auch die 450-Dollar-Marke sehen", sagt Roemheld.

Doch obwohl die aktuelle Rallye von der Dollarschwäche getrieben wird, liegt darin nicht der alleinige Grund für den Höhenflug. Denn der Preis für das Edelmetall befindet sich seit Jahren auf dem Weg nach oben. "Anders als noch vor einigen Jahren hat die Volatilität des Goldpreises deutlich abgenommen. Die in der Vergangenheit üblichen Rückschläge bleiben mittlerweile aus", sagt Christoph Eibl, Rohstoffexperte bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW).

Die stabile Entwicklung hat nach Meinung der Experten mehrere Gründe. Häufig genannt: Die stetig steigende Nachfrage. "Für viele Investoren ist Gold wieder eine ernsthafte Alternative zu Devisengeschäften", sagt Rohstoffhändler Eibl. Hilfreich ist, daß diese Nachfrage auf ein sich konstant entwickelndes Angebot trifft. Denn in den kommenden Jahren werden die Minengesellschaften ihren Absatz kaum vergrößern. Die neuen Erschließungsprojekte werden sich frühestens in sechs bis acht Jahren auf das weltweite Angebot auswirken. Allein deshalb ist das Risiko von stärkeren Preisrückgängen relativ gering.

Die größte Preisphantasie kommt aber - wie fast überall - aus Asien. "Die asiatischen Zentralbanken sind bei Gold total unterinvestiert", sagt DrKW-Experte Eibl. "Allein Japan hat weniger als fünf Prozent seiner 800 Mrd. Währungsreserven in Gold investiert. Das wird sich mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit ändern." Damit trifft Eibl den Tenor vieler Marktbeobachter. Denn der Dollar entwickelt sich - auf Grund der desaströsen US-Haushaltslage - immer mehr zum Unsicherheitsfaktor. "Die asiatischen Zentralbanken planen, ihre Währungsreserven zum Teil in Geld umzuschichten, um sich somit von der hohen Dollar-Abhängigkeit zu lösen", bestätigt Fondsmanager Roemheld. Folge: Diese Umschichtungen könnten über Jahre hinweg zu einem fundamentalen Preistreiber werden. "Anleger, die in Gold investieren wollen, müssen eine klare Meinung zur künftigen Euro/Dollar-Entwicklung haben", erklärt Eibl. So hat der Preis je Feinunze in Dollar seit Anfang 2002 mehr als 50 Prozent zugelegt. Betrachtet man dagegen den Kursverfall im Vergleich zum Euro, bleibt nur noch ein magerer Wertgewinn von neun Prozent. "So gesehen ist Gold in Euro gerechnet noch immer günstig", erklärt Eibl.

Die ideale Form für eine Direktinvestition ist das Zertifikat. Hier ist die Performance direkt an die Entwicklung des Goldpreises gekoppelt. "Wer davon ausgeht, daß der Dollar gegenüber dem Euro mittelfristig wieder zulegen kann sollte auf jeden Fall zugreifen. Denn so kann man sowohl vom steigenden Goldpreis, als auch von zusätzlichen Währungsgewinnen profitieren", meint DrKW-Experte Eibl.

Das Szenario der meisten Marktteilnehmer sieht allerdings anders aus. Sie rechnen damit, daß der Greenback gegenüber dem Euro auch in den kommenden Monaten schwächer abschneiden wird. Doch auch für diese Entwicklung gibt es die passenden Produkte. Mit sogenannten Quanto-Zertifikaten kann sich der Anleger für einen kleinen Aufpreis gegen das Währungsrisiko absichern. Denn der Wert des Zertifikats verändert sich nicht aufgrund von Wechselkursschwankungen, sondern lediglich durch Änderungen des zugrunde liegenden Goldpreises. So kann selbst eine Fortsetzung der Dollarschwäche dem Investment nichts anhaben.

Artikel erschienen am Do, 28. Oktober 2004 in die Welt

Silbertaler, extrel, yoyo, smartie

CEF hatte damals tatsächlich recht lange warten müssen. Das war/ist
in der US/Canada Gold/Silver Investor-Szene bekannt und dokumentiert.

Von Interesse mag sein: die Comex Gold/Silver Warehouse Stats:
ich füge hier die Adresse (via NYMEX, da die COMEX gesellschaftlich eine
Tochter der NYMEX ist ) ein:

Gold: http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/gol_fut_wareho.jsp
Silver:http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp

Eine kurze Erläuterung:
- die Lager-Statistiken teilen sich auf:
1.) nach den einzelnen Lagerhäusern (Warehouses)
2.) nach Registered und Eligible

Registered: es ist einen Kunden fest zugeschrieben.
Eligible: ist im Pool bzw . zur Verfügung der registrierten Händler.

Daher können für die Lieferfähigkeit nur der Eligible-Anteil berücksichtigt
werden: Dieser ist zur Zeit oberhalb von 60 Mio. Feinunzen
er war im 3./4. Quartal 03 zeitweise auch schon auf wenig über 50 Mio
Feinunzen gefallen. Da dieser Teil der Warehouse Stats insbesondere
Aufmerksamkeit findet , hätte gerade bei der 'interessanten' Situation
vom 3.Quartal 03 zum 1.Quartal 04 eine plötzliche Verminderung um zusätzliche 10-12% alle Alarmglocken läuten lassen. Daher wurde ein
schrittweiser, über mehrere Monate laufender Liefer-Prozess durchgeführt.

Zur weiteren Info: in den Jahren Anfang 00- Anfang 03 bewegten sich
die Gesamtmengen (Totals) zwischen 108 Mio. und 93 Mio. Feinunzen.
Im Verlaufe des Jahres 03 erhöhte sich die Menge auf über 125 Mio.
Feinunzen . (PARALLEL DAZU MACHTE SILBER SEINEN WEG ZU
8.40 USD/OZ ) . Man darf sich einmal vorstellen, was passiert wäre,
wenn nicht über den Verlauf von 3-4 Monaten der COMEX mehr als
20 Mio. Feinunzen zugeführt wären. (Silver to dae moon ???).

Interessant in diesem Zusammenhang: Ted Butler schob diesen Zuwachs auf chinesische Lieferungen. Meine persölichen Quellen berichteten damals von erheblichen Silber-Verladungen am Flughafen Zürich-Klooten (via Brinks Securities). Ob es sich damals nur um eine
Umladung mit Zwischenlagerung oder ob es sich um originär schweizerisches Silber handelte, konnte ich bisher nicht in Erfahrung bringen. Um es mit einem bekannten Spruch zu sagen: Der Züricher See ist allemal tief genug für ein finanzielles Geheimnis.

Germoney

p.s. Ich habe zur Zeit noch ein paar andere Projekte am Laufen. Aber im
Laufe des Dezembers will ich hier gerne ein neues Thema aufmachen
und die COMEX Gold and Silver Warehouse Stocks und die Delivery Notices statistisch zu verarbeiten und grafisch verarbeiten. Ich habe rückwirkend bis ca. Anfang 2000 Zugriff darauf.

auf http://www.gold-eagle hat der gute alte 'Käpp'n Hook' ein Editorial reingestellt.

The New Deal
http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…04/captainhook102604.html
- Charts und Themen:
-- US Wirtschaft & und Staatsanteil seit Roosevelt's 'New Deal'
-- die Geschwindigkeit der Geldzirkulation (und deren Verlangsamung, US M3)
-- US-Gold in Prozent der US-Geldmenge M3
-- Globale Goldpreise
-- Gold-Charts mit Bemerkungen
-- Gold im Vergleich zum CRB -Index (Commodities Research Bureau)
-- Öl-Chart (WTIC Light Crude)
-- MZM-Chart (Money of Zero Maturity, Geldmenge MZM, Bar/Sichteinlagen)
-- US Geldmenge M1

Germoney

germoney

Wie kauft man Silber an der Comex ? Wenn ich unter dem angegebenen Link nachsehe, heißt es unter "What we trade", daß an der Börse Futures und Optionen für Öl, Erdgas und Metalle gehandelt werden.

Wenn der Central Fund das Silber über Warentermingeschäfte an der Comex gekauft hat, wie ist es möglich, daß der Fund das Silber nicht zum Lieferzeitpunkt bekommen hat? Ein geplatzter Kontrakt hätte doch erhebliches Aufsehen erregt und die Börsenaufsicht in Bewegung gesetzt.

Wo ist explizit gesagt, daß der Central Fund das Silber an der Comex gekauft hat?. Ted Butler hat diesen Kauf mehrmals wegen der langen Lieferfrist erwähnt. Aber ich habe keine Stelle gelesen, an der er ausdrücklich sagt, das Silber sei an der Comex gekauft worden und die Börse hätte zum Fälligkeitstermin die Lieferung nicht erfüllen können.

Hallo, Ulfur,

es werden tatsächlich an der COMEX Futures und Optionen auf
die zugrundeliegenden Rohstoffe (commodities) gehandelt.

Warum der CEF nicht zum Lieferzeitpunkt die Ware bekommen hat?
Ein geplatzter Kontrakt ...
Im Prinzip ja, aber ...
Letztendlich bleibt es immer noch den Vertragsparteien überlassen,
ob sie auf physikalische Lieferungen sofort - oder später , gegen Aufgeld
abgewickelt werden. Und die Börsenaufsicht , in diesem Fall die SEC
, Security Exchange Commision, deren erste Aufgabe ist es - negative Publicity vom Handelsplatz fernzuhalten - interessant ist es da auch immer wieder, wenn ein leitender Angestellter nach Jahren bei der SEC plötzlich
in führender Position bei der NYMEX/COMEX landet . Ein Schelm , der Arges
dabei denkt.

Re.: Ob/Dass der CEF das Silber an der COMEX erstanden hat, Ich habe die Referenzen hier irgendwo abgespeichert, ich bin noch am Suchen, sorry.

Germoney

October 27 - Gold $424.50 down $1.50 - Silver $7.18 down 13 cents

The Barrick Bomb

When the government fears the people there is liberty; when the people fear the government there is tyranny.
Thomas Jefferson

It is beyond me how anyone can’t see how rigged the US financial markets are. Here we are going into the tightest US Presidential election in history when everything counts. President Bush needs the stock market to take off and it is essential gold not be allowed to take out $430 and explode – for the obvious reasons oft-mentioned in this column.

It did not take long for the PPT to go into action to achieve their desired market results. Early on the US stock market was down and gold was up over $2. The dollar was lower, below 85, and oil was slightly higher. They had no intention of letting that stand and they didn’t. From some of your observant Café members who know their stuff:

From Jesse on the markets:

They seemed to pull the trigger on the dollar and equities about the same time today.

Its also the end of fiscal year for the mutual funds. This three day period has been up for stocks every year since 1978 except for 2001.

I was expecting a ramp, but Greenspan seems to have spiked it with that coupon pass that he put out yesterday for 1.593B (x10 = 15.93 Billion).

-END-

From Ian in London on the same:

Good afternoon Bill
Haven't traded emails for a couple of weeks.

Bet you the best meal in Dallas that I am not the only one who writes to you on this theme today.

You can set your watch by the ESF bandits who showed up at 3:00pm UK time (10:00am ECT), just after the London pm gold fix. What a surprise!

If the oil and distillates number was that important, why didn't the markets move on the numbers at 2.30pm UK time (9:30 ECT)? (and what's the betting someone fumbled the keys on putting the data together).

Instead at 3:03pm UK (10:03 ECT) the DOW and USD are goosed up, and gold and oil shoved down. I could understand it if one or two moved in tandem, but all four together? If it looks like a conspiracy, feels like a conspiracy, and acts like a conspiracy, then it is a conspiracy.

Even the oil trader interviewed on the comedy channel at the UK close (aka CNBC) was at a complete loss to explain the almost $2 fall off in oil, especially with the OPEC president calling for SPR release. Supply must be tight for him to make that call publicly.

All in all this move has a smell of desperation.
Best regards
Ian

Just how obvious is the market rigging by the PPT and Gold Cartel? From Canada this time:

Bill;
I can smell the stench emanating from the COMEX all the way up here in Canada - GATA tell ya it's overwhelming. One day, likely soon, the regulators who chose to look the other way are going to have some splaining to do - and with their criminal abdication of their duties they should rightly have their own personal disgorgements to look forward to also. Unbelievable wood shedding yet again minutes after London closes for the day. You would have figured after all the years of practice these dirt bags have had that would have learned how to sleaze with a little more aplomb eh?
best,
Rob

Houston’s Dan Norcini sees the latest this way:

Thanks Jesse. Nice chart.
They tied it in with the release of the crude inventory report. I have serious misgivings about the validity of that report but what else is new. Distillate levels are still too low as we enter the heating season.

Considering that crude got smashed as the hedge funds were all tripping over one another to puke up their positions, gold is actually holding rather well. The dollar "relief" rally is just that - a relief rally that is going nowhere. Apparently many forex traders are not buying the scenario being spun by the clods who trade stocks. the bond guys are obviously not that excited about it either since they are not dropping as hard as one would expect given the "strength?" in stocks. Durables were not all that good. Of course - the day is yet young.

The Bernanke put is in place as the BOJ will put a floor under bonds once again if the dollar cracks support. Same scenario as back at the beginning of this year. bond vigilantes have become extinct. They no longer exist having been effectively wiped out by massive Asian Central Bank bond buying.

Let's see how things close today. We will have to wait and see at what level gold finds some new buyers. Specs continue to play right into the cartel's hands.
Dan

The London PM Fix this morning was $428.25.

The high in December gold: $430.10

Comex gold volume was heavy, about 70,000 contracts. The early huge buyer was a fund going through Deutsche Bank.

As stated the other day, only those in the gold world of less than dimwit mental capacity could fail to observe what is going on here. So be it!

All said and done, The Gold Cartel’s best laid plans didn’t win them all that much. Gold closed $1.60 off its low and down less than $2. The reason being the strength in the physical market. Buyers were waiting for the cabal assault. Therefore, instead of the dreaded fund liquidation drill, gold’s collapse hit a brick wall of buying and drifted back up. Locals were caught short and covered going into the bell.

I still believe we have a changing of the guard here. Times are a changing. Demand for gold is increasing around the world. The Gold Cartel will soon run out of wiggle room and gold will erupt. My bet is gold explodes through $430. It won’t look good and trade through that level like a normal market. One day: KABOOM!

In that regard look for an enormous change in gold and silver volatility. Once $430 is cleared decisively, these markets are going to trade very differently. The demise of The Gold Cartel will usher in new trading dynamics, which many precious metals marker participants will not be prepared for.

Silver popped a dime early before the price managers acted out their preordained trading script.

The John Brimelow Report

India buys; Barclays forgets 1976

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.86, PM $7.57, with world gold at $425.50 and $426.95. Ample for legal imports. The rupee firmed again today, closing at an import-facilitating 4 month high.

Japan was quiet, trading only the equivalent of 20,852 NY contracts (-12%) The largest contract saw an 8 yen decline and world gold went out 50c lower than the NY close. Open interest did rise the equivalent of 1,532 Comex contracts to equal 100,856 Comex, so maybe the public continues to accumulate. (In NY yesterday, 46,552 contracts traded, with open interest rising a further 1,343 lots to 321,849, a new record.)

Gold in NY yesterday saw initial strength, serious subsequent weakness, and a closing rally, while other influential prices also moved erratically. (Today is much the same.) The Bullion Bank commentators appear bemused, but are clearly apprehensive because of the high open interest. Mitsui-Sydney reports

" renewed interest in downside puts in NY with funds buying about 3 lacs (e.g. 300,000 ozs -JB) of the Comex Dec $400 puts.".

This implies that open interest increase in the face of a $2.30 decline might also have been short selling.

The invaluable news gathering site thebulliondesk.com provides an interesting insight, saying this morning:

"Sorry for the poor service this week but our SERVERS are running at close to capacity…we had not expected that our audience would leap by 20% this last fortnight’

Part of the significance of this is, given the wealth of data available on this and other sites, that those following gold are infinitely better informed than was the case even quite recently, and possibly less susceptible to being stampeded.

Perennial Bears Barclays Capital has produced a more typical study, pointing out that gold has sold off after all of the last six Presidential elections on a 100-day view, sometimes quite steeply. Indeed only in the last election was there subsequently a short time during which gold was higher .

For some reason, Barclays omitted 1976, the first election with a free gold market. Three months after that, gold was up some 30%. Those with long enough memories might feel the current economic/geopolitical environment more like 1964: gold was fixed, but the Bretton Woods system subsequently broke down.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (10,002, up 114) and DOG (1970, up 41) took off for the second day in a row. What a surprise to see the DOW above 10,000 again!

There is nothing to really account for the stellar US stock market rally the past two sessions. The economic news has been anything but robust and certainly $52 oil is nothing to rave about. Just four months ago $43 oil was thought to be horrendous. Crude oil closed at $52.46, down $2.72 per barrel. It surely was not a resurgent dollar. It finished at 85.55, up only .26. The euro lost .48 to 127.02.

Jim Sinclair puts this all in perspective when he warned recently:

"As we approach the weekend before the US election, we have to anticipate that the embattled incumbent's financial men will work every market possible in order to maintain some semblance of order and prosperity."

Long live American democracy with our free financial markets and free press.

From Sarge:

There is data out there re market performance in October and its relationship with election results.
He who occupies the White House during a DOWN month of October fails to get re-elected.
He who occupies the White House during an UP month of October gets re-elected.
The INDU closed on 30 SEP at 10080.
On Monday the INDU was at 9708.
We had a 138 point rally yesterday, and are up 120+ right now.
Currently (3:14) the INDU hit a high of 10018.
Only 63 points away from officially being UP for the month of October.
Any bets we close above 10080 on Friday?? Hmmmmmmm???
Dollar to a donut??

Stock market bulls still have a lot of company:

08:27 Bullish sentiment declines to 56.4% from 58.9% in latest Investor's Intelligence poll
Bearish sentiment rises to 25.5% from 22.1%. Those expecting a market correction declined to 18.1% from 19%.
* * * * *

US economic news:

08:30 Sept. Durable Goods orders reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.5%; ex-Transportation 1.7% vs. consensus 0.3%
Prior Durables revised to (0.6%) from (0.3%); ex-Transportation unrevised at 2.8%
* * * * *

09:30 White House says US SPR will not be used to manipulate market prices -- Reuters
OPEC called on the U.S. to release oil from the SPR (see 4:49 comment). Dec. WTI crude closed overnight session at $55.22. Weekly supply data due at 10:30 ET.
* * * * *

10:00 New Home Sales +3.5% to 1.206M in September vs 1.15M consensus
August revised to 1.165M from 1.184M.
* * * * *

10:31 API reports crude oil inventories +4.4M barrels
Gasoline inventories +2.3M barrels, while distillate inventories (2.3M) barrels. Dec. WTI crude is traded lower in initial reaction, but is relatively unch. at $55.15/barrel, awaiting DOE data.
* * * * *

10:33 DOE reports crude oil inventories +4.0M barrels vs. expectations +1.0M barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +1.3M barrels vs. consensus (500K) barrels. Distillate inventories reported (2.4M) barrels vs. consensus (1.0M) barrels
* * * *

13:04 Treasury 2-year note auction draws 2.590% median ; 1.93 bid/cover
The bid/cover was weaker than the 2.20 average bid/cover of the last 10 auctions. Treasuries have been moving lower for the past few hours and have extended their losses on this somewhat weak auction: 10-year note (14/32) to yield 4.06%.
* * * * *

14:06 Fed's Beige Book reports that wages, retail prices are "generally subdued"
Fed says that firms in most areas were concerned about the costs of energy, as a number of contacts noted concern about constraints on discretionary income. Retailers reported that sales were below plan in September, though a few chains reported some improvement in early October. Manufacturing-sector activity exhibited a modest decleration, with further increases in input costs, though noted little change in selling prices. The Fed did say that the labor market had modestly improved, with steady hiring of office workers and fewer applicants for open positions. Housing remains robust. The Fed says growth was noted in Richmond, Dallas, while moderated in the New York Cleveland and San Francisco districts. The data was compiled by the Chicago Fed, was tabulated as of 10/18, and was prepared in advance of the FOMC meeting on 11/10.
* * * * *

From Dave Lewis:

Bill,
I got a kick out of today's oil inventory data after reading the following Dow Jones article about the reliability of national oil statistics.

LONDON -- The International Energy Agency warned of "a looming crisis" in compiling its energy data, which often sway world prices for oil and natural gas and affect the planning of the biggest energy producers.

In its long-term World Energy Outlook, the agency, which represents the interests of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's 26 member countries, said it took the "unusual step of raising this issue because we believe there is an urgent need to preserve the reliability of our statistical base."

The agency's monthly supply, demand and inventories data are closely watched, but there have been murmurs of dismay from some in the industry over the number and degree of revisions it makes, particularly when it comes to gauging global oil demand.

In February, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cited the agency's estimate of weakening seasonal demand as one of the reasons to cut back output. The degree of surging demand from China and others wasn't apparent, eventually catching the oil markets off guard and contributing to record high crude-oil prices.

In its October monthly oil-market report, the agency said world oil demand in the third quarter was 600,000 barrels a day more than it had forecast a month previously. "A more reliable and transparent system is needed urgently, especially for investor confidence," said Fatih Birol, the agency's chief economist.

The agency pinned some of the blame on governments. National data, it said, often are subject to lapses and frequently prove inconsistent. "These lapses compromise the completeness of our statistics. They could seriously affect any type of analysis, including modeling and forecasting," the agency said.

Who would have thunk it; national governments obfuscating reality and thereby inviting malinvestment. At least we gold bugs can sleep easy knowing that our favorite commodity isn't subject to such statistical shenanigans......NOT.

have a good one

***

Gold news from Down Under:

Hi Bill,
I am very very bullish on gold this morning. I don't think the cartel is going to be able to trash bullion this time - the fundamentals are just too strong. It's also very positive that major broking firms such as ABN AMRO (Australia) are so bullish (see below).
Hold tight, we're almost ready for take - off!!
Malcolm

Gold smiles, base metals frown

Fresh US dollar weakness and climbing oil prices on the threat of a
strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers reinforced the slowing
growth story. Gold is again a beacon and a step closer to a 16-year
high.

Gold pushes to within a whisker of its 16-year high of US$430.5/oz

Right on cue as the US dollar headed lower, up went the gold price. We thought that we would remind ourselves of the strong inverse correlation between the US dollar gold price and the trade-weighted US dollar. Last week we highlighted the negative impact of the strong rand on beleaguered South African producers. We also examined how well the gold price tracked movements in the euro. The price target in the sights is US$430.50/oz, which was achieved earlier this year and if taken out would take gold to a fresh 16-year high.

We are not too interested in gold taking out old highs but rather what is gold telling us. Above all, gold is telling us that there is now great uncertainty in the marketplace. For example, it is telling us that the US dollar is again in trouble, that the world economy may also be in trouble, that the inflation corpse may be about to start twitching, that geopolitical risks are escalating and that there is a desire to hold a real asset. During times of declining global equity markets gold has often been a safe haven. Indeed, its negative correlation with equity markets is what makes gold provide a little insurance in your portfolio.

-END-

For those still searching for the motive behind The Gold Cartel’s rigging of the gold market all these years, mainly through various bullion banks on Wall Street, one only needs the above commentary. A rising gold price, much less a sharply rising one, sets off all kinds of negative bells and whistles in the investment world.

This is all very amusing as far as I am concerned. Sure all of what is said in the ABN AMRO is true, yet it is besides the fact. The gold price is already $300 under where it should be. All a soaring gold price says is the bums have lost control of their rig and the factors above have attracted so much gold DEMAND versus the crooks available physical supply, they could no longer continue their scam.

Here we go again. Every time gold rallies nicely, or approaches $430, The Gold Cartel finds ways to get IMF gold selling notions out into the public domain. Another coincidence? I think not again.

Southern Africa: Development Agencies Ask IMF to Sell Gold

October 26, 2004

Johannesburg

Three major development agencies have asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to sell or revalue some of its gold reserves to raise funds for a total debt write-off for the world's poorest countries.

In a paper entitled, 'Fool's Gold: The Case for 100 Percent Multilateral Debt Cancellation for the Poorest Countries', the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD), ActionAid and Oxfam International said a total debt write-off for all low-income countries was necessary to help them meet their poverty reduction targets and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato responded earlier this month to a similar call made by the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, and pointed out that "it depends on the willingness of the members of the Fund, of the Executive Board. For the time being, the Executive Board has not discussed this issue. Of course, management and staff, we stand ready to analyse the possible outcome if we get the mandate by the Board to do it."

According to the agencies, the IMF was currently sitting on reserves of 100 million ounces of gold, which the financial institution values at US $8.1 billion - well below the current market price.

Under a 1971 agreement, most of the IMF's gold is valued at $40 an ounce, but the reserves are now actually worth around $45 billion, the development agencies claimed. Revaluation of the gold reserves could potentially raise more than $30 billion to fund debt relief, the paper said.

IMF spokeswoman Frances Ann Hardin told IRIN the IMF had revalued some of its gold to raise funds for debt relief in the past. The IMF sold up to 14 million troy ounces of gold to Brazil and Mexico in 1999/2000, "in a sale authorised by the Executive Board to generate about US $3 billion to help finance the Fund's contribution to debt relief and financial support for the world's poorest nations".

The HIPC Initiative is a comprehensive approach to debt reduction for poor countries pursuing adjustment and reform programmes supported by the IMF and World Bank. To date, debt reduction packages have been approved for 27 countries, 23 of them in Africa.

According to the paper, at the end of 2002, poor countries owed the developed world a total of US $523 billion, or "roughly half their combined Gross National Income. Of this total, $154 billion, or a little under a third, was owed to multilateral creditors, including the World Bank and IMF."

The HIPC had failed to help countries reduce debt to sustainable levels, argued the paper.

In 2000 the international community committed itself to halving world poverty by 2015 and meeting 15 MDGs. "However, debt service payments from heavily indebted countries continue to undermine their ability to meet those internationally agreed targets. In 10 out of the 14 African HIPC countries where data is available, debt service payments still take up a larger share of the budget than do health services," said the paper.

The Zambian government, for example, spent more on servicing its debt than it did on education.

The agencies said NGOs in the UK had maintained that any calculation of debt sustainability should be linked to the poverty needs of a country, which necessitated a 100 percent debt cancellation.

The agencies argued that, despite having fallen short of needs, debt relief had been well used by the African HIPC countries. Malawi was using the resources saved under HIPC to train 3,600 teachers a year.

While making a case for 100 percent debt write-off, the agencies suggested that donor countries should continue to provide aid.

The UK recently promised up to £100 million per year to cover 50 percent of the debts owed to the World Bank and the African Development Bank by around 30 poor countries. The paper asked other industrialised countries to follow suit.

-END-

Several emails came in from some sharp Café members about Barrick Gold. Here they are:

Bill:
Something is amiss here. Barrick has for the last few quarters taken 2/3 of production and sold it at market. The last third was used to reduce their hedge book. They can deliver into their hedge book at any time.

They produced 1.23 million oz during this last quarter, so 33% or 400,000 oz of gold should have been delivered. Instead only 200,000 oz.

It just does not make sense especially as it goes against its public policy of reducing its hedges by handing in gold at the preset prices. Obviously the lower prices received for the hedged gold (around 365 usa dollars) would dramatically hurt their stock and that is probably why they only reduced by 200,000 instead of 400,000.
Harvey.

Bill,
To follow up a little on my earlier eMail, and I may be way out in left field here but, here's the concept. First off, Barrick is sure to go belly-up eventually because they're pretending that paper contracts are a substitute for honest metal. Their derivative assets (which yielded $9 mil profit last quarter) will someday become the instruments of financial destruction that Buffet predicts. Still, I think it is useful to consider what the company may have done to stave off a collapse this year.

My starting point is that a Barrick bankruptcy would be a catastrophe for Greenspan, the Fed and the entire Cabal. Since Barrick was involved in the gold suppression scheme from early on, there must be reams of incriminating papers in their files. The Blanchard suit threatens, but it's a slow threat, given the pace of the legal system. A bankruptcy proceeding would blow the plot sky high. It would be totally out of the Cabal's control, be certain to expose the price rigging conspiracy and open up Barrick executives and Cabal members to criminal subpoenas from Spitzer +++. About the only scarier news for the Cabal that I can think of would be an audit of Fort Knox.

The most pressing issue for Barrick is how to avoid breaching the net worth requirements built into their hedge contracts. I think you once pointed out that those hedges could become immediately due if Barrick's net worth drops too low. As you noted today, the Cabal won't let Barrick cover its hedges outright — that would put too much upward pressure on gold's price at a time the Cabal is struggling to contain it. So Barrick has, under cover of the ferocious assault on gold's price this year, bought derivatives that give them a paper long position large enough to, theoretically, equal their hedged short position. From an accounting standpoint, they are immunized from losses on the hedges.

What do you think? If I'm right we will see another derivatives gain for Barrick next quarter and the quarter after that, etc. The fatal flaw in this plan is that it is built out of paper and depends on counter parties to fulfill their debts for the next 15 years. Fat chance! It does keep the accountants off their backs for the time being. I guess the Barrick company motto should be, it's better to hang later than to hang now.

Feel free to shoot holes in this idea. I welcome any and all suggestions and thanks for your time and patience.

Best wishes and go GATA!
Peter R.

Bill,
I don’t think you made a big enough deal out of Barrick’s earnings. According to Prudential research their mark to market loss on their derivatives portfolio is now $1.7 billion. If I recall correctly Barrick has tremendous flexibility into when they deliver into their hedges as long as they keep their balance sheet strong. Somewhere around $2 billion mark to market loss their balance sheet will have deteriorated to the point of violating their bank covenants. The $1.7 billion mark to market loss was as of September 30 with spot Gold around $419. Thus with 13.7MM oz hedged at an average of $298 somewhere around $440 Gold their mark to market loss will move through $2 billion. The way I see it they only delivered 200,000 ounces into their highest priced hedges because if they were to have delivered more their average realized price and thus their revenues would have been lower pushing the 3rd quarter into a reported loss. They have been delivering into their highest priced hedges for a while now and they still have 13.7 MM ounces hedged at an average of $298. Meanwhile production is forecast between 1 and 1.1 MM ounces in the 4th quarter which is down from 1.25MM oz in the 3rd quarter and 1.48MM oz a year ago. Basically, their costs (energy, cement, steel, labor) are soaring while their revenues are falling and their derivatives loss is a time bomb. If they aggressively reduce their hedges they will quickly move into the red. If they wait around for higher Gold prices their balance sheet is in serious trouble. The company is on the ropes!!!

I assume this is one of the reasons $430 is being protected so strongly?
G

Dear Barrick Management,
After reviewing your third quarter earnings it is clear your company is in a major predicament. Your costs are soaring, your production is falling and your mark to market loss on derivatives is now $1.7 billion. Indeed your mark to market loss is getting close to the point where you are breaking bank loan covenant agreements. I see that you have decided to try to hedge your rising costs by buying crude derivatives. That is not your problem. Your problem is you and your banks made a bad business decision in hedging 13.7 MM oz. of Gold at an average of $298. The environment in which you made these decisions has changed and is going to stay changed because of America’s poor fiscal and monetary policies. Gold is going to go up with or without you. It’s your choice to survive or fail. There is a way out.

Currently on the Comex there are commercial sellers willing to absorb any "speculative" buying interest in Gold. While your bankers and the press are telling you this is just speculative buying. The truth is the buyers are trying to protect their saving from the current confiscating policies of the American Federal Reserve System. Since the Fed has interest rates set way below the current real inflation rates, we are looking for ways to protect ourselves and currently Gold is way out of sync with all other prices in our society. We think Gold is worth between $700 and $5000 so we are buyers of Gold futures. Over the past 45 days the open interest in the December Comex Gold has risen by over 100,000 contracts while the price of Gold has only risen $20. This is where you can save your company. If you were to buy 137,000 Comex Gold contracts you could eliminate your hedge position. So far the commercials have been willing to meet all bids. Let’s say your average entry point was $435. You would now have a realized loss of $1.8 billion. However, once you sent a letter to the Comex that you wanted to take delivery in order to close out previous hedges, Gold would soar to $500-$700 range. It is my contention that the commercial hedgers don’t have the Gold to deliver. Once the public realized you were now out of the hedging business and Gold was between $500-$700 your stock would double overnight allowing you to raise the $2 billion in a stock offering. I know I would buy your stock. Unfortunately, until you get out of your predicament I have no interest in owning your shares and am contemplating shorting them against my Gold futures position.

Sincerely,
An anonymous American Citizen who has owned Gold Futures from $280 while your stock has gone nowhere.

***

This morning I spoke with a highly regarded gold fund manager who smells Barrick is in big trouble if gold blows through $430. Their hedge book goes further underwater to the tune of $18 million for every dollar the gold price rises. At $500 gold, their hedgebook will be a negative $3 billion. Even at $450, Barrick will have violated certain bank covenants, as mentioned above. The fact is Barrick will be at the mercy of their counterparties. If one pulls the plug, Barrick will no longer be able to roll over their positions. If one counterparty runs for the hills, it could set off a chain reaction, which could easily set off a gold derivatives neutron bomb.

What about the notion Barrick is loaded with cash and can handle potential financial stress? My friend the gold fund money manager tells me Barrick needs the cash desperately because of the enormous costs to fund their five mines. Aside from the fact The Gold Cartel won’t let Barrick cover their hedges, this could be the reason Barrick didn’t use its cash to cover their hedges with the gold prices so low last quarter.

The bottom line: Barrick ($22.17, down 33 cents) is a bomb waiting to off. Avoid it like the plague. What a wonderful short hedge against other long gold share positions.

08:07 NEM reports Q3 EPS $0.31 vs First Call $0.25 (47.79)
Company reports revenues of $1.16B vs First Call $1.17B. Expects 2004 gold sales of about 7M equity ounces at total cash costs of about $230-235/oz.
* * * * *
On the lighter side:

Look at the financial quiz today at the bottom right-hand corner of the main yahoo finance home page.

http://finance.yahoo.com/?u

Q.All the gold ever mined is equal in size to which of the following?

A tennis court to a depth of 19 meters
A Boeing 747
A football field to a depth of 19 meters
The Empire State building
My sentiments too:

Bill-
I’m just a novice but puleeze!. Is this the best the riggers can do. I mean these guys can't deliver like they used to. A kazillion spec longs and they can only shake a few here and there it seems. They had the oil reversed, the dow up, the dollar down (.15 down at this reading!!! Wow.), silver hit hard etc. and really no panic in gold. It seems to me that gold has been well bid on every shakeout they have attempted. This can't be the same fun for these guys. It just goes to show you once you get a formula going and EVERYONE KNOWS the cabal will shake the specs and the locals will just piggyback down with them and it will just like old times, every time, all of sudden it doesn't work any more. As you said, the word is out and their M.O. is exposed. I don't want to get cocky here (we'll probably get killed tomorrow, just because I wrote this!!). I know you mentioned Mike Bolser's fears, but I'm with you here due to the ACTION of the market. Look at the last few minutes for the last two days. Even the pit boss doesn't seem to get much of a bop down in for the last trade or so.
I feel comfortable here, even if we have to wait till after the election, which we may not. This could be a great time to set up a sleeping pill and Depends concession for the Cabal shorts!! (Pun intended)
Buzz

PS
I'm waiting for the usual stooges to come out with downgrades on Newmont, major negative articles in the Economist, WSJ, IBD etc. I KNOW they can do better than THIS!

PPS
Winston Churchill used to call the international banker consortium the " high cabal". Some things never change.

***

Looks like the Red Sox are going to win the day before GATA does.

The gold share folks can’t wait to take profits and run for the hills at the earliest sign of any kind of gold weakness. The XAU lost 2.44 to 103.18 and the HUI fell 5.71 to 232.16.

Keep The Faith!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Silbertaler

Kennst du die Kaufverträge ? Bist du sicher dass der Kauf über die COMEX ging oder vielleicht direkt beim Lieferant ? Wenn die Verträge nicht rechtzeitig erfüllt wären hätten die sich bestimmt beschwert.

Smartie

ich bin kein Broker der LBMA oder COMEX. Die Fragen die du stellst werden nur sehr wenige beantworten können.

Man muss nicht aus jeder Geschichte ein Krimi machen.

Wer sich gerne tiefer über den Zustand von Barrick informieren möchte:

- die Bilanzen auf deren Homepage:
http://www.barrick.com/4_Annual_Report/

- balance sheets (yahoo finance)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=ABX&annual
- insider transactions (die Jungens haben anscheinend keine sehr hohe Meinung zum Stand der Firma)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=ABX
- announcements (insider roster)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=ABX

Germoney

# englische texte

man sollte annehmen, dass wenn jemand einen text hier einstellt, dass er ihn vorher gelesen und verstanden hat.

dann sollte derjenige auch in der Lage sein - auch im eigenen Interesse - eine kurze zusammenfassung ggf in form von thesen - zu schreiben.

relativ zu dem aufwand, die kompletten texte zu lesen, ist der eine zusammenfassung zu schreiben GERING.

Wichtig finde ich das allerdings insbesondere bei elend langen texten mit vermeintlich wenig inhalt.
Ohne anmassend zu sein sind m.E. die GATA Texte viel laberei um eine kernaussage herum.

grüsslis
Berrak