@ Berrak
Ich respektiere Deine Meinung, stimme dem was Du schreibst nicht ganz zu, da ich persönlich lieber ein Original lese als irgend welche Zusammenfassungen, da dabei zum Teil sehr viel Information auf der Strecke bleibt.
Ich halte die GATA Berichte für sehr informativ.
Die Berichte haben ende März sehr schön vor dem Top gewarnt.
Wenn irgend jemand andere Berichte hat die bessere Informationen bieten, IMMER HERBEI DAMIT.
Alle Gute,
Silversurfer
Ja, stimme silversurfer absolut zu !
Niemand wird hier gezwungen, einen englischen Text zu lesen.
Ein in diesem Thread vormals nicht ganz unbekannter , geradezu
vergötterter Poster, hat ebenfalls nichts anderes getan, als auch sehr
viele rein englische Texte (auch unkommentiert !) einzustellen, die
er vorher vielleicht noch bunt
angemalt hat - das fanden alle immer ganz toll....
Mein Englisch ist nun wahrlich auch nicht so grandios... aber ich
käme niemals auf den Gedanken, mein niedriges Niveau nun anderen
aufzwingen zu wollen, indem ich fordere, nur deutsche Texte oder
englische Texte nur samt deutscher Kommentierung einzustellen.
Wenn jemand Kommentierungen einstellt, sehr schön, wenn jemand
dies nicht tut, jedoch einen inhaltlich in diesen Thread passenden
Text einstellt, der auf Englisch geschrieben ist, dann ist dies
absolut ok - und freut, wie auch andere Beiträge oben zeigen,
auch viele Leser.
Viele Grüße
Spieler
Oh ja, das mit den insider Verkäufen bei Barrick sieht nicht unbedingt gut aus.
Wenn das Unternehmen so gut dastehen würde, dann würde ich als Insider gewiss nicht Aktien im Wert von über 1 Mio USD verkaufen.
Ich denke das wird wirklich erst der Anfang sein.
Lass die Gold- und Silbe-Bullen raus wenn nicht jetzt dann nach den Wahlen in USA.
Das wird ja mal ´ne spannende Woche (nächste Woche).
CU,
Hier nich eine nette chartanalyse zu Silber und zu Gold in SA Rand.
Die aktuellen Gold-Leihraten (3 -Monatsbereich) haben einen interessanten 'Spike' nach oben gemacht. In dieser Höhe habe ich sie seit mindestens 12-15
Monaten nicht gesehen.
"Mal ehrlich, wer von euch hat es so dringend gebraucht?" ![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
Tja, germoney, kein gutes Zeichen...
Ich bin mir da gar nicht so sicher, ob ich den Spike schlecht bewerten soll.
Morgen werden: US-Brutto-Inlandsprodukt für das 3. Quartal, der US-Arbeitskostenindex für das 3. Quartal , sowie der Index der Einkaufsmanager
Chicago für Oktober und die Verbraucherstimmung und -Erwartung der Uni Michigan veröffentlicht. Ich habe eher das Gefühl , da wird sich auf sehr schlechte Zahlen vorbereitet, von wem auch immer. Ich würde mich tatsächlich nicht wundern - reines Bauchgefühl - wenn nach einem Versuch , den Preis zu drücken, wir am Ende morgen höher enden als es bei Eröffnung beginnen wird.
Falls Asien über Nacht seinen Teil dazu beiträgt, könnte es sogar das Umfeld sein, welches uns über die 430$ - Hürde bringt. ( Beware: No investment advice,
only my underbelly feelings)
Germoney
Hallo germoney,
So habe ich es nicht gesehen. Danke dir.
übrigens, es ist nur bei Gold der Fall.
Silber
Platin
Palladium
sind davon nicht betroffen.
Die commercials waren am 19.10. mal wieder extrem short....bin mal gespannt wie das nächste Woche aussieht!
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SI.png]
Hallo Germoney,
wie siehst Du das mit der 3 Monate-Leasing rate zu Gold.
Da muss doch irgend etwas gewaltiges im Bush sein oder?
Wenn die 3 Monats Rate so einen Spike macht, sollte in wirklich absehbarer Zeit die Fette Lady tanzen - oder?
Könnte es sein das der 430 Ausbruch da wirklich vorbereitet wird?
Na wenn das mal nicht ein fetter Spass wird 
ZitatOriginal von germoney
Die aktuellen Gold-Leihraten (3 -Monatsbereich) haben einen interessanten 'Spike' nach oben gemacht. In dieser Höhe habe ich sie seit mindestens 12-15
Monaten nicht gesehen.
"Mal ehrlich, wer von euch hat es so dringend gebraucht?"
Was ich nicht verstehe: wieso gab es diesen Spike nur im 3-Monatsbereich, und nicht auch bei den noch kürzeren Leihzeiten? Wieso leiht sich jemand Gold auf 3 Monate zu einem so hohen Prozentsatz, wenn er es auch billiger haben kann, nur mit einer anderen Laufzeit?
Grüße
extrel
Ich weiss nicht,ob ihr ständig mahendra lest,aber in seinen Prophezeiungen sagt er klar voraus,das sich ein grosser zum jetzigen
Zeitpunkt fett eindeckt.
Grüsse
Kalle
kann Dir nur beipflichten. Die potenziellen Kandidaten werden immer mehr, z.B. Araber, Chinesen oder Russen.
Es gab auch vor ein paar Tagen aus einer amerikanischen Quelle die Meldung von einem Informanten, dass gerade ca. 5 Mrd. Dollar in Gold, evtl. ein kleiner Teil auch in Silber angelegt werden soll.
Von daher könnte dies ein erstes Signal für einen turbulente nächste Woche sein.
Gruß
Silbertaler.
ZitatAlles anzeigenIN VERY LATE: Heard from our STALKER source. The skinny:
*The total gold buying by the main STALKER and three little STALKERS will be $4.5 billion. Half of that has been bought already.
*The main STALKER is about done, leaving the smaller STALKERS to do the buying.
*The smaller STALKERS may trade some of their purchases, i.e. sell rallies.
*The group is looking for $500 gold within 6 to 8 months.
*The thinking is some of the Asian buying last night was partly this group (thought to be Chinese and operating principally out of Australia).
*They are interested in silver, however, the Canadians are trying to sell them certificates. They want physical only and need a place to store it. If they can sort this out and can find silver in SIZE, they will be in the market.
*They feel that dollar still has 25% to go on the downside and there could be an official devaluation.
The London gold dealer connection to our STALKER source checked in too. Still bullish and looking for gold to take out $434 this week and then to move past $450.
gepostet am 26.10. von silversurfer
in deutsch die wichtigsten Aussagen:
gehört von meiner Informantenquelle (wahrscheinlich Broker/Investor ?):
Die gesamte Kaufsumme für Gold des Hauptinformanten und dreier kleineren Informanten beträgt 4,5 Mrd. Dollar, davon wurden 50 % schon gekauft.
Die kleineren Informanten handeln z.T. auf eigene Rechnung, verkaufen in Rallys
Die Gruppe erwartet einen Kurs von 500 $ in den nächsten 6-8 Monaten.
Man glaubt, dass jemand aus Asien, der letzte Nacht gekauft hat, Teil der Gruppe ist (jedoch operierend aus Australien).
Sie sind auch interessiert an Silber, die Kanadier versuchen Ihnen Zertifikate zu verkaufen [Anmerkung: hier ist wahrscheinlich der Central Fund of Canada gemeint, der vor ein paar Tagen mehrere Mio. Zeirtifikate herausgab !). Sie wollen nur physisches und benötigen einen Platz, um es zu lagern. Wenn sie diese Frage gelöst haben und Silber in größeren Mengen erhältlich ist, dann werden sie im Markt sein.
Sie glauben, dass der US-Dollar noch ein Abwertungspotenzial von 25 % hat.
Die Londoner Goldhändlergesprächspartner von unserem Informanten ist weiterhin bullisch und geht davon aus, dass wir 434 $ diese Woche erreichen und dann in Richtung 450 $ gehen.
October 28 - Gold $424.70 up 20 cents - Silver $7.15 down 3 cents
A See-Saw Day
"Start now buying gold coins, any kind, and hoard them."
- Dr. John L. King
A roller coaster of a Comex trading session. The Gold Cartel huffed and puffed early this morning. Yet by day’s end they came up short, big time short. Gold tanked early on this:
06:29 China raises one-year lending rate by 0.27%; first increase in 9 years
China also raises one-year deposit rate by 0.27%.
* * * * *
Of course, for gold to be trampled on that sort of news made no sense. Sure a surprise rate increase like this could affect base metals like copper on economic slowdown fears. However, it is mildly bearish news for the dollar, which is gold supportive, not gold negative. Obviously, there were early fears of hedge funds dumping metals of all kinds.
Comparing gold to base metals like copper is comparing apples to oranges. The copper price more than doubled over the past years. Gold is $300 less than where it should be due to the price suppression scheme. The price of one has little, or nothing, to do with the other.
The cabal's efforts to flush out the monstrous spec long position failed miserably this morning because the physical market is on fire in the international arena (see JB). The big players such as the Indians, Chinese, Russians and Arabs all want to accumulate bullion. The gold open interest is still way up there, only falling 2451 contracts to 319,398. As long as $420 holds, we should be OK as the specs should hold their ground for the most part.
At the same time, while efforts to trash gold didn’t work, the cabal’s price-capping efforts were as visible as ever. In this very volatile and unusual trading session, gold rallied from $421.70 to $427.10 before the bums showed up, as always, to take gold back down, thereby removing any serious enthusiasm and keeping gold away from their $430 danger zone.
The Café Sentiment Indicator remains around a 4. Unreal considering where the gold price is today versus years ago. While gold is receiving a good deal more positive coverage these days, the public could care less, which bodes extremely well for the price in the weeks and months ahead.
Silver fell along with gold early and then struggled its way back up, but couldn’t stay positive. It failed to fill its breakaway gap above $7 as its slide was halted at $7.07.
The silver open interest dropped 574 contracts to 116,241 – high yet some 7500 contracts off its peak earlier this year.
Some good news after the close. The Comex silver stocks fell 411,540 ounces to 104,625,974, a new low for the move.
The dollar (85.36, down 19) closed lower against every major currency, which means gold continues its short-term bearish ways in foreign currencies. The euro rose .27 to 127.29. Once again we see blatant evidence of price manipulation. What other explanation can there be for gold to go nowhere as the dollar continues to break down? Oh, I know. It’s the weakening price of oil ($50.87, down $1.59). Of course, when that oil price was soaring, it had little to no effect on the gold price. Only when it drops do the pundits cite oil as a bearish factor for bullion. Anything but to tell the truth that gold is managed by a bunch of crooks.
Tops? The CRB (283.27, down 2.13) failed to take out 290. The HUI can’t get through 240 and gold is not allowed to go through $430. Collectively, does this mean anything? Not in my book. All that really matters is the physical gold market eating up The Gold Cartel’s supply. When the bad guys blow up, the financial market scene will change for a decade.
The John Brimelow Report
India checks Bears; What is "heavy non-fund OTC selling"?
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.02, PM $9.05, with world gold at $423.40 and $421.10. Ample, and massively lavish, for legal gold imports. This is basis Bombay, but the other reporting cities are broadly similar. About an hour before the Indian close, world gold began to slide steeply; Indian prices adjusted modestly: the country was clearly a solid buyer.
As mentioned previously, oil is India’s biggest import (gold is the second!) and falls in oil prices bolster sentiment. This was true again today: the stock market was firm and the rupee closed at an import-facilitating 19 week high.
TOCOM appears to have been a modest buyer too. On volume up 97% to equal 40,891 Comex, the active contract was down 15 yen and world gold was 55c below NY at the close; but open interest edged up 196 Comex. Mitsubishi reports:
"Saw Public bargain hunting buying were seen but fund selling capped the market."
perhaps explaining the near wash in open interest. Their estimate of the public long has reached a new recovery high of 73.7 tonnes (e.g. some 23,700 Comex lots). TOCOM platinum was down the limit and silver was also far harder hit than gold. (NY traded 66,138 contacts yesterday; open interest fell 2,451 lots.)
Interestingly, the deep (c. $4.50) discounts seen on the Shanghai Exchange earlier this week have almost disappeared: they around 50c this morning with world gold at $423.90. In view of the China scare seething around today, it is worth emphasizing that, on the basis of physical price differentials, the mass Chinese market has lent no support to gold at all this year. Indeed it appears to have been a drag. Gold is not a China play. It may well be an Indian and Middle Eastern play.
Just how close gold came this week to an historic achievement is caught by the exuberant tone of Australia’s Commonwealth Bank bullion comment today, no doubt written before the last 24 hours:
"Black gold’ is having a significant influence on the yellow stuff at present… Many seem to be getting excited as we head to USD432.40 (the current cycle high for spot). USD432.40/oz is an important level from a technical perspective. And
gold appears to be among the more technically traded commodities around. We suspect that a fair few buy-stops would be triggered on a push over USD435/oz. There is only daylight between there and USD465."
That such excitement could be kindled is a normally phlegmatic bear (Commonwealth’s current 2005 quarterly average forecasts proceed down from $395 to $360) adds some perspective to the thoughtful words of UBS:
"Comex open interest up at all-time highs and gold struggling to make new highs, clearly we are missing something in the gold market here… An interesting divergence has developed between Comex trading speculators, who appear to have built up near-record (or even new record) long positions, yet the gold price has failed to make new ground, both in USD and non USD terms… We can think of three possible reasons for this divergence. Firstly, the increase in Comex open interest may not be all longs - there could have been brave new short positions initiated at the same time as some new longs; Secondly, OTC speculators could have sold gold as their exchange trading brethren have increased their long positions and finally there could have been some heavy OTC non-fund selling depressing the price of gold."
(JB emphasis)
Quite likely all elements were present, particularly spec shorting on the recoil from the barrier at $430; but the magnitude if the open interest build on the high suggests the breakout into Commonwealth’s "open sky" was stopped by "heavy OTC non-fund selling" a.k.a. a Central Bank.
Starting just after 6am NY time this gold came under heavy pressure, dropping over $3 in an hour. Many NY dealers no doubt expected a collapse, given the technical data to hand: but clearly physical demand was too strong.
The sad demise of Thistle Mining today undoubtedly puts another nail in the coffin of hedging ("we believe that the mining industry is unlikely to return to the re-hedging market en masse or even in aggregate over the next two or three years." – UBS before the news broke). But analytically the true culprit in this case is the South African regime’s mesmorization by rand carry-trade operators, with the consequently absurdly-valued rand.
JB
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
The DOW continued its winning streak, gaining 3 to 10,005. So did the DOG, as it rose 6 to 1976. It’s year-end tomorrow for many funds. They love this late rally.
The US economic news remains unimpressive:
08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 10/23 reported 350K vs. consensus 335K
Prior week revised to 330K from 329K.
* * * * *
10:00 Sept. Help Wanted Index reported 36 vs. consensus 37
Prior reading unrevised at 37.
* * * * *
12:18 China rate increase is not necessarily linked to move in more flexible yuan, says IMF -- Reuters
The increase (6:29 comment) may replace other measures imposed by China, says the IMF, who noted the move is a market response to managing the economy.
* * * * *
Russia’s Gold and Forex Reserves Record High at $105Bln
On Thursday, October 28, the Russian Central Bank announced that the country’s gold and foreign currency reserves hit another historic high at $105.2 billion. The reserves have grown by $5 billion in just a week, driven by high world oil prices and currency market jobbers. –END-
From The King Report last evening:
Durable goods were not only less than expected at 0.2% (0.5% exp.), a 26.5% jump in military orders (a satellite) kept it from being even worse. Ex-defense goods, the index fell 0.9%.
US new home median prices tanked 8.4% in September, their biggest decline in 23 years (9/91 -9.4%). But the financial media and Wall Street emphasized the 3.5% annualized sale gain. We have been warning for months that home prices started declining last December and that even though home sales numbers are jiggy, inventory building of homes is even more jiggy. And that means lower prices. Entry-level home sales (French for the low end) are still strong. PS – 1981 was a horrid recession that commenced after the ‘80 inflation peak. –END-
Chuck checks in:
Bill:
Let me take a shot at what appear to be irrational markets, at least as seen from a bear's eye view on the stock market and a bull's eye from a gold follower. I believe that after watching oil soar and the dollar drop as they have, we must realize that these are not necessarily going to be the drivers behind the next major and, as I believe, dramatic moves.
As one who believes that the greatest appreciation will eventually be in the exploratory companies, it is obvious that the lack of interest in them reflects the current economic conditions are not the ones that will fuel them. Thus, continued patience and a long-term perspective is needed to purge the frustration that most of us share.
It is noteworthy that Newmont and Goldcorp, the two leaders in the large cap pure gold plays continue to perform well in spite of the lackadaisical action of the smaller ones. We are also seeing the producing Canadian companies such as Wheaton, Meridian, and others also move up. This is the correct sequence as far as I am concerned. That means that the thought of speculating in a bull market is far way and, therefore, conversely, healthy. One day, the reverse will be true, as what occurred in the high tech bubble of the very late 90's.
In spite of relentless monetary pumping, organized rigging of the markets and records deficits all around us, the Dow still remains around 10,000 and the Nasdaq at 2000. Gold has historically traded contrary to the stock markets as it represents the other side of the monetary coin or paper, to be accurate. This held true during the depression of the 1930's and during the stagflation 1970's. This will hold true again in the tumultuous days ahead for us, except it will exceed the prior times by many multiples as we have reached the end of the great experiment and failure of monetary manipulation. Rather than get excited and frightened about every $5 drop in gold, we must recognize what is happening in our world. Soon, the lifestyles and expectations of Americans and other nations will change dramatically. Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com
Lombard Street Research
World Service Daily Note: 18th October 2004
China slowing sharply
SUMMARY: September money and trade data revealed that economic activity continued to slow. It is difficult to judge the extent of the slowdown, but the sharp weakening of broad money and credit growth bodes ill for China. The authorities are getting the upper hand, but the response to the administrative measures is likely to overshoot on the downside. China is set for a hard landing.
September money and trade data, out on Friday, confirmed that the economy continued to weaken. Given the unreliability of Chinese data, it is difficult to judge the extent of the slowdown. But the money and trade figures are one of the most reliable and key to the current state of the economy. Exports (s/a) rose in September, but are only back at June levels, underlying the worsening external environment. There is anecdotal evidence that export orders for manufacturers are falling. Imports (s/a) have now been falling for three months in a row, down by 1.4% on average in the three months to September compared with the average over the previous three months.
-END-
DJ Technical Special: Key Reversal In CRB Warns Commodity Bulls
By Jim Wyckoff CEDAR FALLS, Iowa (Dow Jones)--The Commodity Research Bureau Index is a composite price of a basket of over a dozen major raw commodities prices, including crude oil, grains, livestock and metals. It is an excellent gauge of overall raw commodity price inflation and is watched closely by traders and analysts for clues on general commodity price trends.
On Wednesday, the CRB Index hit a fresh all-time high of 289.29, and then promptly reversed course to close solidly lower and near the day's low. Strong losses in the energy futures were the main impetus for Wednesday's plummet in the CRB Index.
The CRB Index on Wednesday did score a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart - whereby the high was higher and the low was lower than the previous day's price range, with a lower close. On Thursday, the CRB Index was showing follow-through downside price pressure and a bearish key reversal down was confirmed on the daily bar chart.
Separately, a very significant market development occurred overnight, which could have a major impact on the CRB Index and major raw commodities in the coming weeks and months. Chinese banking authorities raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, in an attempt to slow down a red-hot Chinese economy. Any slowdown in Chinese demand for raw commodities, including crude oil and soybeans, is likely to have a significantly bearish impact on those markets and other raw commodity markets heading into the new year.
If the CRB Index can rebound soon and go on to score a fresh all-time high, then the commodity markets bulls would become technically recharged and would again be looking for raw commodity price inflation to remain on the front burner in the coming new year.
On a longer-term technical basis, the CRB Index in October has seen what could be the beginning of a bullish upside breakout from a congestion area on the monthly bar chart. However, if the CRB cannot rebound from this week's losses and continues to slide in November, then technical odds would increase raw commodities in the coming weeks and months. Chinese banking authorities raised interest rates for the first time in nine years, in an attempt to slow down a red-hot Chinese economy. Any slowdown in Chinese demand for raw commodities, impact on those markets and other raw commodity markets heading into the new year.
If the CRB Index can rebound soon and go on to score a fresh all-time high, then the commodity markets bulls would become technically recharged and would again be looking for raw commodity price inflation to remain on the front burner in the coming new year.
On a longer-term technical basis, the CRB Index in October has seen what could be the beginning of a bullish upside breakout from a congestion area on the monthly bar chart. However, if the CRB cannot rebound from this week's losses and continues to slide in November, then technical odds would increase that a top in the CRB Index is in place and that commodity prices, in general, are headed sideways to lower in the coming weeks and months.
-END-
Cannot stress the cost factor enough when it comes to making money by mining gold. $400 bullion won’t cut it in the years to come.
NEW YORK, Oct 27 ( Reuters ) - The world's largest gold producer, Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research ), said on Wednesday that higher gold prices drove up quarterly profit by 12.5 percent, even though it sold less of the precious metal.
But ballooning costs for diesel fuel, steel and labor, pushed up the cost of mining operations, eating away at the benefit of a world bullion price that has soared this year. ...... –END-
Three years ago Willie McLucas, President and Chief Executive Officer of Thistle Mining Inc, told friends of mine that the GATA people didn’t know what they were talking about. Then he went out and put on a massive gold hedge with gold at sub $300 price levels. The hedge went toxic and now the company has blown up – however, the stock has rallied to 4 cents Cdn. Another hedger bites the dust:
Negotiations with Standard Bank
Thursday October 28, 10:01 am ET
TORONTO, Oct. 28 /CNW Telbec/ - The Board of Thistle Mining Inc. (TSX: THT and AIM: TMG) wishes to announce that the Company has received written notification of default from Standard Bank on its credit facilities.
The Company is currently in discussions with the Bank to remedy this situation.
William McLucas: william.mclucas@thistlemining.com, President and Chief Executive Officer, +44 131 557 6222 or +44 7836 638 912
-END-
A blast from the past – in an October 1999 MIDAS:
Midas has the real Kuwait story for you. The Kuwaiti's are very, very bullish on gold's price prospects.
Early this year, the legendary Willie McLucas (from Scotland) engineered the formation of Thistle Mining Inc (THT on the Toronto Exchange). Its aim is to "keep buying distressed mining companies and grow Thistle into an intermediate gold producer." McLucas calls Thistle "a global mining finance company," ie, a gold vulture fund.
Lord Lang of Monkton, a former Cabinet Minister in the British government of John Majors, is on Thistle's Board as is Adnan Al-Sultan who is also vice-Chairman. Al Sultan is also chief investment manager for the Direct Investment Department of the Kuwaiti Investment Authority. The KIA is the main investment arm of the Kuwaiti government. Its portfolio is estimated to be as high as $100 billion and it is estimated that Al-Sultan oversees $10 billion of that (according to a story about McLucas by Paul Kaihla of Canadian Business). There is a rumor among the Toronto Bay Street crowd that the Kuwaitis are prepared to back McLucas to the tune up to $1 billion in acquisitions, a rumor that McLucas denies.
Just for the record, the Kuwaiti Investment authority owns 83% of Thistle.
****
Oh well Willie, you blew it for the Kuwaitis as well as yourself. Talk about a bummer. Meantime, GATA has come a long way since you dissed us Willie, while you have gone tapioca.p>
The Red Sox’s stunning comeback in the AL playoffs, and subsequent sweep in the World Series, has to be a good omen for GATA.
With gold on its highs, after storming back from its early bombing, excitement was in the air. That excitement lasted about a half-hour when the cabal decided to have none of it, regardless of the dollar action. This kind of market manipulation and constant deflation of normal emotions is partly what has kept public interest in gold so abysmal. As we all know, this has been a major facet of the cabal’s modus operandi for years now.
From time to time I get asked why the cash market buyers don’t take the bums out? It’s the reverse. The major buyers today are big picture players and think long-term. They know the score, what The Gold Cartel has done, and why - and where the price is headed. They are hoping the specs are flushed out so they can buy more cheap gold. As is, they are there on dips to buy from weak specs who are dumping. It will be the specs who take out $430.
The gold shares were hit after an early rally. The HUI sank 3.47 to 228.69 and closed on its lows after making a 235.11 high. The XAU dropped 1.60 to 101.68.
Looks like we bide time until the election is over.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix:
NOTE: We have had a hacker attack in our Chat Room and are working on the problem.
GOLD - The Weekly Gold Perspective
by Julian D.W. Phillips
Gold - Authentic Money
October 28, 2004
That was the week that was
Didn’t you feel the pace pick up quite a bit this week on the $ front? When it broke down, it did so quickly. Since then it has been moving fast both ways. This tells us that it is not going to slow down to the previous pace for a while. The move upwards was a gear shift upwards. Beware of thinking it will become stuck again soon. Yes, it is due to consolidate, but the hormone level has increased alongside the pace of price moves.
Global market prices:
Euro: Gold did not perform well in Euros this week. Having broken all the way up to Euros 340 previously, it pulled back to Euros 334 early in the week to stay there for three days before falling back to 332, then recover to Euros 334 at the time of writing. The price driver here was the oil price, which came off its top as stockpiles grew. Gold waned, but not to the extent of oil’s fall. But then, it never rose to that extent on oil’s rise.
U.S. $: Gold attacked $430 this week in a bust of vigour that was inversely proportional to the fall of the $, then fell back in a drop slightly larger than the fall of the $ itself in line with the pullback of the Euro.
Rupees: The Rupee has been relatively stable against the $, so reflected the fall. Previously at higher levels, buyers were deterred from picking up gold at the higher prices, believing they would pull back. This expectation led to an increase in scrap sales of gold in India, lowering the size of physical purchases in London. The present drop in the gold price could well reverse this scene soon.
Rand: With the strengthening of the Rand lowering profits on the mines yet again, the gold price dropped in Rands more than the Euro gold price. With inflation in South Africa also falling, the potential for more Rand strength and lower Rand gold prices is very real. There appears little reason to believe that Rand gold prices will enjoy the benefits of a rising $ gold price for a while yet still. A further drop in interest rates may sweeten this picture, but there is no apparent willingness on the part of the S.A. Reserve Bank to do this yet.
The market players.
The Physical buying waned strongly this week, but this was, we believe, a function of price only. They may well be back in strength shortly. Speculators restricted their activity to arbitraging, not speculating. We would be surprised if the long speculative positions changed this side of the Presidential election. Investors continue to feel more convinced of their long position and are now to be joined by South African direct gold Investors, a new feature of the global demand for gold.
Technical Analysis versus Fundamentals:
This week we have received e-mails from readers who are confused at the Technical picture now being presented by it. This is understandable, because we are in an area where the scene has become complicated and seemingly in conflict. We told you that many Technical Analysts warned that an interim top was being made before a gold price pullback last week. We have Analysts telling us that this is simply a consolidation phase before another successful attack on $430. As you can see from the above, the picture is different in different currencies. Now add to this--not the simple arithmetic of the factors involved in the picture--but how these factors often have a ‘multiplier’ effect on each other to add weight to the combination beyond the sum total of their individual parts.
Look how the price rise in Rupees led to scrap sales, a sort of doubling up effect.
The knowledge of a major drop in Central Bank sales is not the simple reduction of supply to the market, but encourages Investors, who seeing this change of attitude of the Central Banks, are then encouraged as new individual and institutional investors into gold. We have read how pensions funds are moving into this sector from the States and right around the globe to Japan into gold investments.
With the broadening of the fundamental base of the gold market, significant factors over the last two decades are moving into the shadow of new stronger fundamentals taking up their positions in this market.
Whilst we will always say the Technicals give clear guidelines as to where short-term and usually longer-term price peaks and troughs will be found, no professional approach to the markets would discard fundamentals. Put the two together and the professional is sufficiently armed to enter these markets. In answer to these e-mails, we have strongly suggested that they subscribe, not only to a Technical Analysis service, but to our fundamental service found in “Gold – Authentic Money”. This provides perspective and insight into the interaction as well as the detail of all these factors.
We want you to get this last week into perspective too, so have a look at these figures recorded at the time of writing and juxtaposed with last week’s figures: -
Last week, at this time gold stood at $423.80, six $ 60cents above last week’s figure and Euros 335.48 one Euro down from last week’s figure. The Euro itself is worth $1.26022 two cents stronger than last week.
At the time of writing, gold stood at $426.15 two and a half $ higher than last week and Euros 334.28, one Euro down from last week. The Euro itself is worth $1.2748, one cent stronger than last week.
Large Scale Speculators.
Long term Speculators were not active this last week, dealers doing arbitrage business held the floor, matching and smoothing out the prices between the States and the rest of the world, until yesterday, when New York, dropped the gold price down, in the face of dropping oil prices after gold was fixed at $428+. Now the fix of today was adjusted down to that level, clearly in agreement with the move.
Chinese interest rates up.
The Chinese have raised interest rates, a step that has caught most commentators, off guard. Its initial impact is that it has improved the value of the Euro in $s and helped the gold price to recover to the $426 level and to Euros 334 level.
Another point of confusion is that Chinese savings in banks are primarily in huge levels of deposits with very little borrowings. The banking system there is unsophisticated, so not the place from where most growth is financed. Hence, a raising of rates is likely to increase the sizes of these deposits, encouraging consumer spending there, not discouraging it. This story will intrigue the west no end, we are sure! – More comment next week!
Oil – Off the boil – for how long?
Perhaps the main reason gold prices fell later this week was the drop in oil prices by 5% on the back of rising inventories, rising more than four times expected levels. For the average Investor, this requires checking to see if this is a medium term + break in the price or just a temporary fall. The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose 4 million barrels to 283.4 million barrels, narrowing a deficit against last year to 9 million barrels. These figures show us that in the short term the U.S. deficit will be narrowed in a short time, so this stimulus to the gold price, et al, should cool off.
An indication of where the future is taking us is shown in how the main market suppliers are behaving? Clearly O.P.E.C. is still reacting as though high prices are a medium term feature, for the head of O.P.E.C. approached Washington to urge them to tap their strategic reserves, supply the market and so, bring down the oil price.
The U.S. was not convinced and said that only a severe supply disruption would warrant such a release of oil.
Will that happen in due time? The big problem lies in the underlying problem that supplies of light, low-sulphur crude have been having trouble keeping up with on-going, surging demand from countries such as India and China, where officials believe that the growth in demand may continue at the double figure level next year. And will supply rise to meet this demand? The ceiling appears to be relatively close already. Russia’s output, the world's second-biggest producer, will rise only 6-8 % next year, down from 11% in 2003. O.P.E.C is not able to expand supply to meet the burgeoning needs of these two developing countries. Demand for cars is rising at the rate of 50% per annum, alongside a similar figure in oil demand, and growth there is set for a couple of decades at least.
We have looked more closely at the future of oil in the latest issue of “Gold – Authentic Money”. This gives one the ‘big picture’ in rough strokes, but puts it beautifully in perspective for us.
South African Mineral Royalties.
Inflation figures are dropping and internal economic growth is rising, so encouraging the hope that another rate cut is on its way. If this does not happen expect a R in the region of R5 + in the near future. We cover South African Gold and gold equity indices in all our publications [see below].
South Africa repeated that mineral royalties should be based on sales, rather than profits and said it would publish legislation next year. Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said that the Treasury would soon release recommendations on the tax formula for gold mining companies. "It remains government's view that the royalty should be imposed on a gross ad valorem basis, but a number of critical issues have still to be addressed". The revised Mineral and Petroleum Royalty Bill would be published in 2005. "It will address outstanding issues, such as the differentiation of royalty rates, marginal mine treatment, the elimination of the double royalty risk and transitional matters," he said. The implementation of the tax would be delayed by two years to 2009. The rates as originally proposed run from 1.0% for oil drilled in deep offshore waters, to 3.0% for gold, 4.0% for platinum to 8.0% for diamonds. Mining firms have said the tax will have a heavy impact during a mine's start-up phase.
It appears that the S.A. government is somewhat impervious to the cries from the mining Industry that this will discourage overseas investment and raise the risks of investing in current South African mining companies. As it is the profitability of the mines is being damaged by a strengthening Rand which climbed to R6.18 and better, against the U.S.$ this week, inflicting further wounds on profitability.
South African Foreign Exchange Controls.
S. A. Finance Minister Trevor Manuel eased foreign exchange controls by removing limits on the amount companies can invest abroad. Before, South African companies were allowed to invest a maximum of 2 billion rand ($325 million) in Africa, and 1 billion rand outside the continent in any one transaction. Dropping these limits will help companies such as AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd., and Harmony, the country's biggest gold producers, to buy more mines in other parts of the world. Alongside the introduction of Royalties, this measure will speed up the mining industry’s diversification away from South Africa to less, prospectively onerous, tax climates.
Manuel also said that South African companies will be allowed to retain foreign dividends offshore. Repatriated dividends may be taken offshore again at any time, the Treasury said. Limits on investment by South Africans in foreign companies listed on the Johannesburg stock exchange have also been lifted. South Africa in February announced plans to allow foreign companies to list in Johannesburg. Other controls on the amount of money pension funds and other fund managers are allowed to invest outside South Africa are being examined. On individuals, the R750,000 limit on the amount individuals can take out of the S.A. will be looked at fairly soon and then increased?
We fully expect Exchange Control, a feature of South African life for nearly forty years, to fade away in the near future? But beware, they can return in a heartbeat! A look at the trends in the South African government attitudes to the wealthy will encourage an osmotic process of capital flight over time... the very reason Exchange Controls were imposed in the first place.
NEW GOLD – Paper gold spreads further across the globe.
The World Council continues its efforts to market gold funds. In South Africa, together with a main, local bank ABSA, they are launching “New Gold” – Gold Bullion Debentures.
Each of these securities represents 1/100th of an ounce of gold and price in South African Rands. [Not the 1/10th of an ounce in the London listed “Gold Bullion Securities”]. Its code on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is to be “GLD”. Its purpose is to track the gold price [less admin fees]. With the volatility of gold shares, particularly gold shares priced in Rands, this Debenture, is the first time South Africans have been able to ‘invest in pure gold’ without the problems usually associated with physical bullion and coins. These problems also included the speed with which one could deal.
The gold that is backing the Debentures is to be held at the Rand Refinery. [Where South African Gold is refined prior to export to the global gold markets.]
With the volatility of the Rand gold price at 18.98% compared to 46.2% on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Index in the year to September 2004, this form of gold investment will be preferred by many individuals and Institutions, over gold shares.
With many believing that the Rand is within 10% of its ceiling against the $, this form of gold investment will probably act as a counter to the Rand in investment portfolios as well as an investment in itself.
It will be interesting to see the market reaction to this investment.
A gold publication, tailor - made for you!
We are continuing with our survey of what you want from a publication on Gold, Silver & Platinum, with the emphasis on gold. Would you be so kind as to spare us a moment of your valuable time to let us have your views? We will send you set of questions if you send us an e-mail asking for them. Wouldn’t it be nice to have your very own, tailor-made publication on these markets? For a set of questions please contact us at: Questions Email
Silver $7.20
The Silver price, as in the case of gold and Platinum, was steady in Euros and weaker in $. Now it has recovered to one cent lower than last week. Little change from the position of last week was registered. It would appear that this will be the case next week too. Methinks there is hidden strength in this price despite its vulnerability. One Silver enthusiast Subscriber, is extremely positive on this metal, even against gold, which position we now support, particularly on a ratio basis!
Platinum $823
Yes, the Rand down to R6.10 to the U.S. $ this week. With the $/Euro moves the price maker of these metals, expect more of the same next week. Platinum dropped 2.5% on last week’s rice a poorer performance than the Silver price!
The London Gold Fix
Gold Fix
Oct 28 a.m. $423.85 E 333.189
Oct 28 p.m. $428.25 E 335.015
