Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Mit Aussnahme der - rohstofforientierten - Währungen (Rand , Aussie-Dollar,
    Can-Dollar) sind die Währungen US$ , Yen , Pfund, selbst der Schweizer Franken zum Gold im Nachlassen.


    Das Barometer fürs Gold ist inzwischen der EURO (Zero) geworden.
    Deshalb ist auch das Verhältnis Euro/Gold (auf stockcharts $GOLD:$XEU)
    m.E. eines der wichtigsten Barometer zur Beobachtung des Marktes


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    [quote]Original von silversurfer



    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
    Ist die webpage bei der man sich für ein 2 Wöchiges Testabo für die GATA-Berichte rebistrieren lassen kann.
    Es ist völlig unverbindlich.


    quote]


    @ silversurfer


    Ok, dann übernehme ich nach Dir für 2 Wochen. Wann läuft Dein Testabo denn genau ab ???


    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Zitat

    Original von springbock
    Hi....also wenn ein Thaiguru irgendwoanders postet...................kann man dann nicht seine Postings hierher kopieren ;)


    Soweit ich weiss gibts da keine Rechtsbestimmungen die man beachten muss.



    Man könnte wahrscheinlich. Ist für mich aber mehr eine Frage des "guten Geschmacks" als eine juristische Frage !!!



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Hallo Smartie !


    Es wäre wichtig zu wissen, wieviel im letztem Jahr exportiert wurde. Es kann gut sein, das das eine Obergrenze ist. Es kann ja sein das die Mächtigen nicht her der Lage, und deshalb die Obergrenze festgelegt haben.?


    Gruß Jürgen

    Zitat

    China erhöht die jährliche Exportquote für Silber von 3050t auf 3500t. Was soll man davon halten?


    Die Meldung hat mich auch irritiert.


    Welchen Sinn macht es für einen Verkäufer, durch die Vor-Ankündigung einer Mengenausweitung seiner Lieferungen unweigerlich den Preis seine Verkaufgutes nach unten zu drücken?


    Würdest Du das tun? Dir dein eigenes Geschäft vermasseln?


    Das ist doch schizophren.


    Klingt mir ein wenig wie die leidvollen Vor-Ankündigungen von Gold-Verkäufen durch die Zentralbanken.


    Bei solchen offensichtlich sinnwidrigen Meldungen drängt sich mir der Verdacht auf, daß hier ein bestimmter Zweck verfolgt wird. Man sollte sich die Frage stellen, wer eigentlich hinter den Medien steht, die diese Meldungen verbreiten, bzw. wem diese Medien gehören. Dann fällt einem so manches wie Schuppen aus den Haaren und dann macht eine solche Meldung auf ihre eigene Art plötzlich wieder Sinn...

    Hallo Jürgen!
    Also ich verstehe den Artikel schon so, dass 3050t sich auf 2004 bezieht und 3500t auf 2005. Wird zwar ausgerechnet bei Silber nicht explizit so gesagt, ist aber bei allen vorangehenden Metallen so der Fall und ergibt sich deswegen aus dem Kontext so. Oder?!


    Wenn man einfach nur wüsste wieviel die Chinesen noch auf Halde haben...


    Bis dann


    Smartie

    Naja, die Quelle dieser Meldung ist letztlich wohl schon das chinesische Aussenhandelsministerium. In diesem Fall glaube ich das einfach mal.
    Deinem Gedankengang folgend hätten die Chinesen also Interesse daran den Silberpreis zu drücken, bzw. die Aufwärtsbewegung zu bremsen. Aber warum?


    Naja letztlich sind die 3500t auch nur schlappe 100 Millionen Unzen. Wenn jeder Deutsche also 7$ in die Hand nimmt schnell mal aufgekauft...


    Aber komisch finde ich's schon...


    Smartie

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Smartie ()

    ganz salopp gesagt, in Asien ist der Verbrauch an Silber in der Fotografie
    immer noch am Steigen. Weiterhin darf man nicht vergessen, dass die Reflexionschicht bei CD's (und DVD's) einen gewissen Gold- oder Silberanteil haben. Nun, Gold ist ja seit 2-3 Jahren (in den meisten Währungen) schon etwas teurer geworden. Da bleibt eben nur Silber.


    Wenig bekannt ist - dass in den westlichen Staaten der - von manchen erhoffte (oder besser postulierte) Rückgang von Nutzung des Silbers in der Fotografie, wegen der hübschen kleinen Digital-Kameras -


    habe die Anschaffung einer solchen, auch meiner Familie gegenüber, immer wieder abgelehnt. Grund:
    ein guter 36-er Dia-Film hat eine Auflösung von ca 50 Mio Pixel pro Bild, dagegen kann keine noch so teure Digital-Kamera anspinnen , von dem Kontrastbereich garnicht zu reden -


    -tatsächlich verbrauchen wir inzwischen mehr Silber für CD's., DVD's und
    das gute Fotopapier (zm Ausdrucken) , als bei der alten Fotografie eingespart wurde.


    Das ganze hat noch einen zusätzlichen Effekt: In der Filmverarbeitung/Filmentwicklung wird sehr viel Wert darauf gelegt, dass der Silber-Verbrauch minimiert wurde und alle Recycling-Möglichkeiten
    ausgenutzt wurden, da die Entsorgung ansonsten sehr teuer würde.
    - Es gibt/gab die Behauptung, dass 1 Liter Öl eine Million Liter Öl Gewässer verschmutzen könnte (das trifft eigentlich nur auf stark schwefelhaltiges Schweröl zu) - das ist nichts gegen 1 Liter verdünnte Silberhalogenid- oder Silbernitrat-Lösung in eine 10 Millionen Liter grosse biologische Klärstufe - die Klärstufe kann man danach vergessen.


    daher ist die Recycling-Quote bei Silber in der Fotografie schon seit mehr als 15 Jahren in den oberen 90%.


    Und ohne diese Recycling-Quote würde die Situation bei Silber (der Verbrauch) eher noch krasser sein . Die Erhöhung von 450t entspricht nicht einmal dem recycelten Silber. (letzte Zahl die ich - ohne nachzusehen
    . aus der Erinnerung hole, war bei 470t/Jahr)


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    November 1 – Gold $426.90 down $1.30 – Silver $7.30 up 1 cent


    Cartel Fails To Knock Gold Down Much


    History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again...Maya Angelou


    GO GATA!!!!


    Not much to bring to your attention today. Following its strong weekly and monthly close on Friday, gold came out of the box swinging, even though the dollar was higher. It took off for $430, trading at $430.20, and then The Gold Cartel said, "No Way Jose." That was all she wrote and all need be said. The good news is The Gold Cartel’s assault didn’t get them very far.


    The gold open interest rose to another record and now stands at 322,614, up 2116 contracts.


    Silver was a Steady Eddie. The bears have to be looking at themselves this afternoon.


    The silver open interest gained 243 contracts to 117,328.


    Chuck noted the following over the weekend:


    I just picked up the Investors Daily for Monday and noticed that there remains a lot of put buying on the gold options. Very bullish. Throw that into the pot. Chuck.


    Our London gold source remains very bullish and is looking for $450 to $460 gold by year end.


    The best news of the day is how firm the gold physical market is - brought to your attention by John B:


    The John Brimelow Report


    India buying, also Turkey: specs less extended than thought.


    Monday, November 01, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums $7.84, PM $7.88, with world gold at $429.05 and $427.95. Ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the other Indian reporting points are similar.


    India is showing no signs of faltering in gold purchases despite the world price. Helped by the rupee’s firmness, this ultimately is a wealth effect: the world’s largest gold consumer is booming. For example, Maruti, the biggest Indian car manufacturer, reported a 27.6% increase in sales in October versus 2003. This constitutes a major obstacle for the Bears.


    Turkish gold imports for October fell 33% to 14.85 tonnes. Although according to the Istanbul Gold Exchange the weighted average Turkish Lira price was 2.8% higher, the real problem was that gold moved in a limited range last month compared to September: there were no Bargain Basement sales days: gold’s low for the month was $14 above the September low.


    Nevertheless, imports so far this year are within a tonne of the total for the entire year 2003, itself a stand-out record. Imports in late 2003 were slow; an increase of 10-15% this year seems quite likely (unless world gold rises).


    Despite meeting this morning a world gold price allegedly boosted by month-end activity in NY on Friday, Asia was quite tolerant. Gold spent much of the morning trying to scale $430. TOCOM, indeed, seems to have been a modest buyer. Although volume fell 33% to equal only 16,474 Comex contracts, open interest edged up the equivalent of 519 Comex lots, and the Mitsubishi data implies the "general public" long rose by 3.1 tonnes, or 997 Comex lots. The active contract went out up 15 yen and world gold was $1.25 above the NY close at the end. (On Friday, NY traded 47,113 contracts; open interest rose 2,116 lots to a new record level of 323,654 contracts.)


    UBS found the CFTC spec long increase modest:


    "The COTR report for gold…showed an increase in the net long position to 20.83Moz, up nearly a million ounces…somewhat less than we were expecting because some brave traders have entered into new speculative short positions…The net long position increased by 0.91Moz to 20.83Moz, still shy of the all-time high of 22.65Moz from 6 April."


    Another, particularly shrewd observer notes that the combined NY/Tokyo net long is only 570 tonnes compared to 715 at the April peak.


    With the main physical buyer still active (unlike April) and the speculative futures crowd not in fact fully committed, the Bears are in the tightest corner they have experienced for many years.


    JB

    Surf the wave!
    Silversurfer

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    A picture perfect day for the PPT. The US stock market sails on going into the election. Oil was trashed to $50.13 (down $1.64), the dollar rose .36 to 85.34 and gold was taken down.


    The DOW gained another 26 to 10,054, while the DOG rose 5 to 1980.


    The euro lost .38 to 127.49.


    The US economic news was nothing to write home about:


    Prior Income report revised to 0.3% from 0.4%; prior Spending revised to (0.1%) from 0.0%.
    * * * * *


    10:00 Oct. ISM Prices Paid reported 78.5 vs. consensus 79
    Prior reading was 76.
    * * * * *


    10:00 October ISM Manufacturing reported 56.8 vs. consensus 58.5
    Prior reading was 58.5.
    * * * * *


    Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. manufacturing fell last month to the lowest in more than a year, incomes lagged spending in September and home construction declined in the final economic reports before tomorrow's presidential election.


    The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped for a third month, to 56.8 from 58.5 in September. Americans spent more than they earned in September, with personal income rising 0.2 percent, a third of the gain in spending, the Commerce Department said. Spending on construction projects was unchanged, restrained by a storm-related drop in homebuilding.


    10:00 Sept. Construction Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.4%
    Prior reading revised to 0.9% from 0.8%.
    * * * * *


    Gold buyers out there:


    01.11 / 16:04 | 68 National Bank: gold exchange reserves keep on growing


    Astana. November 1. KAZINFORM. Comparing to the state in late October the volume of gold exchange reserves of the country has increased by 44 percent up to USD 7.2 billion. This became possible due to substantial exceed of currency supply over demand. Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Anvar Saidenov informed of this today addressing the joint session of Parliament houses. This volume of gold exchange reserves reimburses about 5 months of goods and services import. According to the predictions of macroeconomic indexes for 2005 gold exchange reserves are expected to grow by 11-12 percent.
    During 9 months of the current year the monetary base in Kazakhstan has increased by 27 percent (up to 400 billion KZT); monetary supply – by 25 percent (up to 1.312 billion KZT); cash volume – by 31 percent (up to 312 billion KZT). In general, by the end of the year monetary growth in the republic will amount to 25.8 percent. Analogous indexes of the previous year were 21 percent.


    In 2005 the forecast growth of monetary supply by 23-24 will conform to the tempos of economic development of the country, said the banker. –END-




    An update on leasing:


    Good morning Bill:
    "They" started leasing gold and silver heavily last Friday, gold more than silver. It is not the absolute values that are telling so much as the ratios between gold and silver. Usually, silver rates are three to five time that of gold from near terms to long terms. On Friday, gold lease rates rose to less than half of silver's, even though silver rates climbed too and have been climbing slowly for weeks. I don't know what happened to rates this morning, but I can guess they continued to rise. They will trash both metals before the American election, and do it with both leased metal and paper.


    I expect the US dollar will show an miraculous recovery today and the DOW will explode. The only thing that might topple the above scenario is the simple fact that the smart money knows what is coming and might turn this into bear trap for the CABAL. It is after all the, leased gold that is finding its way east, so rising lease rates express the pain of the drain on Western central banks reserves.
    Regards, Rhody.


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/W


    On the PPT:


    Dear Bill,
    Eric Hommelberg's letter makes reference to me with regard to the Plunge Protection Team. I wrote about the Plunge Protection Team in BEURSBEDROG (The Stock Market Sting), Arbeiderspers, Amsterdam, 2003. At the time I did not know where the Plunge Protection Team got the money to manipulate the markets. Now I think I do--the pension funds of Pentagon and other federal contractors. This is explained in a paper I gave at a conference in Barcelona this past June. The paper can be found on my website at Brooklyn College, where I am the Chairman of the Economics Department:


    http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.…elonaStockmarketPaper.htm


    All the best, Robert Bell


    Nice GATA exposure:


    Bill,
    I posted the Mozhaiskov transcript to Mises.org BLOG: http://www.mises.org/blog/archives/002648.asp#more.
    Robert Blumen


    Mises.org, believe it or not, is the #1-most-trafficed economics web site in their world, even ahead of WSJ, the economist, fed.gov, etc. and it is the #1 most trafficked policy site.
    Robert


    China Lays Into 'Bush Doctrine' Ahead of U.S. Poll


    BEIJING (Reuters) - On the eve of the U.S. election, China laid into what it called the "Bush doctrine," said the Iraq war has destroyed the global anti-terror coalition and blamed arrogance for the problems dogging the United States worldwide.


    The searing article was as close to a position on the U.S. presidential election as China has come, but it made no mention of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democratic Party's challenger to President Bush in Tuesday's presidential contest.


    The United States was dreaming if it thought the 21st century was the American century, wrote Qian Qichen, one of the main architects of China's foreign policy, in a commentary in the English-language China Daily newspaper.


    "The current U.S. predicament in Iraq serves as another example that when a country's superiority psychology inflates beyond its real capability, a lot of trouble can be caused," Qian wrote.


    "But the troubles and disasters the United States has met do not stem from the threats by others, but from its own cocksureness and arrogance."


    Qian is a former foreign minister credited with breaking China out of diplomatic isolation after the crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.


    The invasion of Iraq "has made the United States even more unpopular in the international community than its war in Vietnam," he said.


    "The Iraq war has also destroyed the hard-won global anti-terror coalition," Qian added, saying it had caused a rise in terrorist activity around the globe and widened a rift between the United States and Europe.


    "END OF EMPIRE"


    The U.S. strategy of pre-emptive strikes would bring insecurity and ultimately the demise of the "American empire," Qian said.


    Analysts have said China has a slight preference for the incumbent in the U.S. election, realising that U.S. policy toward China has changed little from administration to administration.


    But China, growing in economic and political influence on the world stage, has expressed its aversion to Bush's unilateralist tendencies and sided with France and Germany in opposition to the Iraq war.


    "It is now time to give up the illusion that Europeans and Americans are living in the same world, as some Europeans would like to believe," Qian said.


    The United States had not changed its Cold War mentality, Qian said.


    "The 21st century is not the 'American century'. That does not mean that the United States does not want the dream. Rather it is incapable of realizing the goal," he said.


    After the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, the "Bush doctrine" created "axes of evil" and pre-emptive strategies.


    "It linked counter-terrorism and the prevention of proliferation of so-called rogue states and failed states ... It all testifies that Washington's anti-terror campaign has already gone beyond the scope of self-defense."


    -END-


    Nick Laird was kind enough to send us these charts from Australia:
    Bill
    Here's a few charts for you that I believe are important at the moment.


    The 8 year cycle has now been broken by Friday's close - this 3 up & 5 down cycle has been resident for quite some time.









    Samex Mining ($.70, down 8 cents), my second largest holding, was clobbered for the second day in a row. Eric Hommelberg’s perspective:


    Hi Bill,
    The SAMEX sell off today is pathetic. The stock sank like a stone from 92 cents to 60 cents in just 5 trading days. Volume is hugh, so someone is desperately trying to get rid of the stock as quick as they can thereby taking losses exceeding 30%. Clever deal !


    Why sell at this level ? Because most so called gold-advisors are calling in a top on Gold ? Gold won’t slash the $430 barrier ? Taking profits now ? The problem is that small juniors simply can’t absorb a large quantity of sell-orders. Therefore we are witnessing a crazy situation here whereby the entire junior sector is heading towards their lows of this year while the price of Gold is at a 16 year high ! Well, it seems to me that fear is doing the killing over here. Selling just attracts more selling and as said before the smaller juniors simply can’t absorb such a large quantity of sell-orders. It happened several times in the past and again I want to stress that these sell-offs have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but just fear only. Therefore a panic sell-off such as this one provides an excellent buying opportunity. Just see the graph below and see what happened after the latest panic sell-off in June this year.


    As you can see, during the June panic sell-off the shares dropped all the way down to 46 cents and then blasted to 89 cents in just 5 trading sessions. So from a technical point of view it makes sense to buy right now. But there are other reasons as well. The main reason to invest in Junior mining companies is to profit from major discoveries. How and why Junior mining companies can benefit tremendously from discoveries is explained in detail in my piece "Declining Gold reserves benefit Juniors" which can be found at :


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_04/hommelberg091904.html


    This piece shows that companies making discoveries are doing very well, no matter what the gold price does. Companies jumping +50% on good results are no exception. So if you are a SAMEX shareholder and you know they started a phase I drill program on their Los Zoros property in July this year and you know they can come out anytime now with the first drill results, why for good sake would you sell right now ? I can’t help but to think that most investors are simply not aware of this or don’t realize the true nature of the Los Zoros fields. Michael Bolser send out the following to his subscribers on Oct 18 : (published with permission)


    Michael Bolser – Interventional Analysis, Newsletter Oct 18


    Current investment recommendation


    My current investment recommendation is to build a core bullion position, supplement that with small natural gas debt free firms and finally with small debt-free exploration gold mining firms. The two that I own and like are Canada Southern Petroleum, Ltd. [CSPLF] and SAMEX mining [SMXMF.OB]. Each has a large upside resource potential and one is trading at a very large discount to its net asset value (CSPLF). In addition, SAMEX is in an announced drill core program at their Los Zorros property in mining-friendly Chile. They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.


    END.


    Just repeat the latest sentence here:


    They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.


    For me as an investor, this is the primary reason to invest in companies such as SAMEX. If they are able to find a multi-billion gold/copper deposit, guess what its share price will do ? You can do the math yourself.


    Of course some investors would argue to wait for the early drill results first and see if they confirm the reported surface geology, but then again as an investor you would be too late. As said before, companies showing good drill results may jump >50% overnight. So therefore you have to be positioned well in order to profit from a potential discovery.


    Best, Eric




    Panic sell-off provides great buying opportunity.Last panic sell-off in June was followed by a 93% increase in just 5 trading days.
    SAMEX is three month underway in an announced drill core program at their Los Zoros property. The first drill results can come out anytime soon.
    SAMEX reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine.
    Investors can wait to dump their gold share positions. The XAU lost 1.47 to 101.95, while the HUI gave up 4.20 to 229.40.


    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    The key to gold is the physical market. As long as it holds, and it appears it will, The Gold Cartel is going to have their hands full. I will be very surprised if gold doesn’t bolt through $430 this week. Silver should be streaking for $8.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    Global: The Day after Tomorrow
    Stephen Roach (New York)



    http://www.morganstanley.com/G…igests/latest-digest.html


    Excerpt:


    …There are no quick fixes for America. Yet political campaigns are designed to give voters just such an impression. The day after tomorrow, this charade should come to an end. And just in time, I might add. In my view, 2005 could well be a year when many of America’s imbalances reach their tipping point. A failure to act would be the greatest tragedy of all. Looking at America’s problems through the lens of subpar saving suggests that deficit reduction and a weaker dollar should be at the top of the list of potential remedies -- remedies that, by the way, will have critical implications for world financial markets. Certainly, more can be done. But I can’t think of a better place to start.


    On a personal note, I have to add that I have found this election campaign deeply disturbing. The tone of the debate is what troubles me the most. It has fanned a polarization in America and around the world that is right out of some of the darkest pages of history. It didn’t have to be that way. Out of the devastating tragedy of September 11 came a remarkable spirit of bipartisan solidarity. America was united and the world came together -- not just in grief and sorrow but also in hope for collective renewal. I remember being stuck in Europe in the days immediately after the attack on America, unable to return home at a time when I wanted nothing more. I was warmly embraced by our long steadfast allies, with a compassion and sincerity that deeply touched me. Their hearts were open and caring. Their home was my home.


    That spirit has been squandered. Americans are at odds with one another, with a deep and worrisome intensity. And the world sees us in a stark, adversarial light. The cynics say this is just politics -- that such divisiveness is the norm, especially during times of war. I beg to differ. Today, polarization is playing on the character of America -- in the end, any nation’s most precious asset. Sadly, that character is now at risk, both at home and abroad. As dawn breaks the day after tomorrow, that will be the first thing on my mind.

    Surf the wave!
    Silversurfer

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