Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

...kennt auch das Anti-Goldkartell:
Es ist einfacher die paar Minen des HUI etc. unten zu halten---alle Experten wissen dann: Der Goldpreis wird wieder fallen, unabhängig
wieviel Gold PHYSISCH durch UNEINGEWEIHTE in der ganzen Welt
gekauft wird.---
Fast alle langfristig Gold Bullisch gestimmten sind daher kurzfristig SHORT (Le Metropole)
Das wird weder Inder, Chinesen, Araber, Argentinische Notenbank
etc. beeindrucken.

Warten wir auf den "LONG SQUEEZE" der Goldbullen, wenn die Minen wieder anfangen sich zu erholen.

GANZ ruhig bleiben!

Güße

emoba

Wird hochinteressant!

Zitat

Original von option63
Mal eine Frage: Warum sollen die Minen ein vorlaufender Indikator sein?
(zumindest kurzfristig?)
Es wäre schön, wenn mir dafür jemand eine plausible Erklärung geben kann.

option63,

das war eher als eine Überlegung von mir, was passieren würde, wenn es so wäre. Möglicherweise gibt es da gar keinen Zusammenhang, aber ich habe in Erinnerung, mal was darüber gelesen zu haben.

cu

extrel

Warum ist hier hier alles plötzlich so nervös wegen der Minenwerte ? Ist doch andererseits auch ganz gut, wenn sie noch nicht reagieren.

Früher oder später wird es jedoch eine gewaltige Kursbewegung nach oben gehen. Vor allem, wenn sich der gestiegende Gold-/Silberkurs auch in gestiegenen Gewinnen niederschlägt - und hier ist der Hebel dann gewaltig.

Gold - Die Nachfrage steigt weiter!

Der gestrige Handelstag hatte es fürwahr in sich. Nachdem das Gold am Vormittag noch neue 16-Jahrehochs bei 456,75 US$ pro Feinunze erreichte, kam es zu Beginn des New Yorker Handels zu einem kleinen Sell-Off. Auslöser war wieder einmal das Geschehen an den Devisenmärkten. Der Euro kam etwas unter Druck, nachdem erneut Interventionsgerüchte aufkamen. So fiel die Gemeinschaftswährung binnen einer Stunde von 1,3383 USD auf 1,3240 USD. In der Folge verlor das gelbe Metall knapp 9 US$ pro Feinunze oder umgerechnet 2%. Wie schon vor 2 Tagen stabilisierte sich das Gold auf einem Preisniveau von 447 US$. Die physische Nachfrage bleibt nach wie vor überwältigend. Umsatzspitzenreiter bei den Goldmünzen bleibt der Krügerrand gefolgt vom Wiener Philharmoniker und dem Känguruh. Bei den Barren wurden vor allem die Gewichtseinheiten 100 Gramm und 1000 Gramm gesucht. Unsere Sonderaktion 20 Goldmark Wilhelm I war nach nur einer Stunde ausverkauft. Das Ordervolumen ist seit nunmehr 3 Tagen ungewöhnlich hoch.

Wir hören dies auch von den Handelsabteilungen der führenden Banken in Deutschland. Was genau diesen Hype auslöst, lässt sich nur schwer sagen. In der Vergangenheit war der sprunghafte Anstieg der physischen Goldnachfrage oft mit weltpolitisch bedeutenden Ereignissen wie zum Beispiel dem 11.September geknüpft.

Ähnlich steht es in China. Das „Goldfieber“ grassiert in den großen Städten des Reichs der Mitte. Dies ist kaum verwunderlich, war doch der Golderwerb für Privatpersonen über 50 Jahre verboten. Nach der Legalisierung von Goldkäufen Ende vergangenen Jahres kommt es an den Bankschaltern immer wieder zu kuriosen Szenen. Laut einem Zeitungsbericht der China Daily waren in einer Bankfiliale in Bejing mehrere Tausend Goldmedaillen mit einem Gesamtgewicht von über 300 Kilogramm binnen sieben Stunden ausverkauft. Mittlerweile haben einige Institute Hotlines für Goldkäufer eingerichtet, damit die Schlangen an den Schaltern etwas kürzer werden und die Öffnungszeiten wieder eingehalten werden können. Natürlich haben Chinesen traditionell eine große Affinität zu Gold. Es bedeutet nicht nur Wohlstand sondern dient zudem als Glückssymbol. Wir werden die Entwicklung in diesem Land weiter sorgfältig beobachten.

Wir wünschen Ihnen einen erfolgreichen Handelstag
Robert Hartmann Mirko Schmidt

äußerst interresasant, was an der physischen Front los ist, wenn dies keine gute Nachricht ist

Selbst beim Siegel kann man das lesen.

Bisher ist mir allerdings kein stichhaltiges Argument dafür untergekommen. Das müsste ja bedeuten, die Minenanleger sind die bessseren Anleger, da sie vorausschauender handeln? Gerade bei mancher Minenzocker- und Pusherei scheint mir das doch sehr abwegig.

Langfristig könnte man vielleicht argumentieren, die Mineninsider haben ein paar bessere Infos (Hedging etc.) - aber weil die Goldbugs 3 Tage nicht wie gewünscht laufen ist noch lange nicht auf den kurzfristigen Goldpreis zu schließen. So einfach ist Börse nun auch nicht.
Ich denke, die Schwäche der Minen könnte mit der südafrikanischen Randstärke zu tun haben. Da soll es ja nicht sehr gut um einige Minen bestellt sein. (kenne mich in Minen nicht besonders aus). Vielleicht "färbt" das stimmungsmäßig etwas auch auf andere Minen ab.
Allerdings hatte es mich schon immer gewundert, dass bei einigen erwartet wurde, dass der Dollar ausgerechnet gegenüber dem Rand stärker werden sollte.

Da halte ich die obigen Infos über den Run auf Gold doch wesentlich wichtiger!

Danke für die Antworten bisher.

Sonntag 5. Dezember 2004, 15:11 Uhr

Wirtschaftsweiser fordert Gold-Verkauf der Bundesbank

Berlin (ddp). Der Wirtschaftsweise Peter Bofinger hat die Bundesbank aufgefordert, ihre Gold-Vorräte zu verkaufen. «Geldpolitisch gibt es keinen Grund mehr, diese Goldbestände zu behalten», sagte das Mitglied im Sachverständigenrat der Bundesregierung der «Berliner Zeitung» (Montagausgabe). Es handele sich um Volksvermögen. «Und da muss man sich schon fragen, ob es in dieser Form sinnvoll angelegt ist», sagte Bofinger. «Sinnvoller wäre es sicherlich, das Geld in Bildung und Humankapital zu investieren», erklärte der Ökonom.

Dem Bericht zufolge steht die Spitze der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion in der Frage eines Goldverkaufs in Kontakt mit der Bundesbank. Es gebe einen «regen Schriftverkehr», zitiert das Blatt aus Fraktionskreisen.

Die Bundesbank verfügt über rund 3500 Tonnen Gold. Mit Rücksicht auf den Goldmarkt hat sie sich mit 14 weiteren europäischen Zentralbanken dazu verpflichtet, über einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren nicht mehr als 500 Tonnen pro Jahr zu verkaufen. Bundesbankpräsident Axel Weber hat angekündigt, bis zum Jahresende zu entscheiden, ob die Option ausgeübt wird. ddp.vwd/pon
http://de.news.yahoo.com/041205/336/4bqjr.html

Das läßt sich gut vorstellen, daß es einen "regen Schriftverkehr" zwischen der SPD und der Buba gibt. Es gibt nicht mehr viel, was noch zu verschleudern wäre.

Ob es sinnvoller wäre, das Geld in Bildung und Humankapital zu stecken, wäre auch noch die Frage. Zumindest eine riskantere Anlage als das Gold.
Die Goldvorräte wären zumindest eine Möglichkeit, nachfolgenden Generationen nicht nur Verschuldung, sondern auch wertstabiles Vermögen zu überlassen ( in einem geringem Umfang.)
Aber angesagt ist der nationale Ausverkauf und der Fortgang der Abwärtsspirale.

Clive Maund ist weiterhin bullisch für Gold und Silber:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/maund120504.html

December 3 – Gold $455.40 up $5.50 – Silver $7.99 up 9 cents

Five O’clock Charlie Misfires Again/Gold Roars Back To Make Decisive New 16-Year Highs

"Market intervention is a weapon at the disposal of every central bank." Jean Claude Trichet

GO GATA!

What a turnaround! YES! Five O’clock Charlie showed up this morning and misfired completely. A fellow Café member saw it this way:

They sent poor Charlie out this morning with NO bombs! I couldn’t believe it when I saw USDX minus 0.5 and Charlie coming over the horizon! Looks like they have him signed up for Kamikaze ops now! Could it be that they have run out of ammo?

They had better put up a sign on Wall St "Beware of falling Gold Cabal personnel"…could make a real mess on the side-walk!
Cheers

Goldman Sachs led an all out attack this morning on gold in one of its most blatant assaults ever. Even before the jobs number was released, the bad guys were in action behind the scenes. The euro was up .40 and gold was 40 cents lower. As soon as the very weak and disappointing number was announced, gold shot up $3, playing some catch up, and the dollar went into free-fall. Then "ALL THE DEALERS" went into concerted action to stuff bullion. It wasn’t long before gold was down $2 on the day even as the dollar was battered. There is no other explanation for this sort of price action except BLATANT manipulation.

However, as John Brimelow and I keep bringing to your attention, the gold cash market is, and has been, on fire. The smart money BIG buyers know all about The Gold Cartel and what their agenda is. What has changed from past years is these buyers have caught on to what the cabal is up to and because there are so many of them these days, they lay in wait for attacks, like this morning, and scoop up the cheap gold. For months now it has been one, "Thank you very much cabal" after another.

This physical buying kicked in again. By mid-session gold was back to unchanged and then the uh-oh sounds were heard among the dealer camp and the locals who were short. Gradually, and in the most classic of bullish trading actions, gold made new high after new high, just like it did the other day. I would suggest this has never happened before in the same week over the past six years. Once gold took out its brief top made after the US jobs number release, it took off, going $456 bid at one point.

Some highlights:

*The price reversal on heavy volume.
*The Gold Cartel getting stuffed.
*A 16-year new high close.
*A new high close above the double top of $453.40 made twice earlier this week.
*A close above key $455 resistance, a level defended vigorously by the crooks all week long.
*Biggest move up in a single session in some time with gold making like the famous race horse, Silky Sullivan, coming from dead last to win the race today.
*At the moment every gold futures long is a winner. Every short a loser.

What is so incredible to me is how bearish, or out of long positions, the gold pundits are. Been this way before the New Orleans Investment Conference and ever since. Today Dennis Gartman actually told his followers to sell gold Feb gold futures between $455 to $456 with "IMPUNITY." FEB closed at $457.20, up $5.50

Jim Sinclair, John Embry, John Brimelow and I have held the fort all the way up. We have little company anywhere except the incessant cash buyers. GATA love that. What I keep going over with my colleagues is I’ve never seen so many gold bulls who are short-term bearish. The short-term bears outnumber the bulls by an enormous percentage. Having traded markets for 25 years, sometimes in substantial amounts, it would be a first for me to see so many so short-term bears (in a bull market) be accommodated, and then allowing them to get long to ride gold back up. Markets don’t work that way, not when the crowd is so one sided and fighting the trend.

So here we are now with gold comfortably above $450 and most of the visible pundits out of the move. When do they "CRY UNCLE" and get back in? Have not heard of one doing so yet.

Heard from my STALKER silver source. His London contact says demand for silver hasn’t been this strong in Europe since the late 1970’s. This conservative dealer sees silver at $8.50 before this year is out and $10 for next year. He also has some interesting input on silver demand in China. It is soaring there too. Yet, interestingly enough there is a tussle going on between those in China who want their available silver for industrial demand and those who want to mint coins for investment purposes. Sounds awfully bullish to me.

Silver recovered well from its early bashing, but ran into heavy resistance right above $8. The commercial shorts are resolute and holding firm. However, the silver cash market is strong as can be. How long can the shorts hang in there might be answered very soon.

The silver open interest rose 1520 contracts to 125,104, a new high.

The gold open interest dropped 1219 contracts to 353,992.

Talk about turnaround, in my commentary too. This was my former lead and MIDAS opening, written soon after the gold bombing:

From a fellow European Café member this morning:

On JC Trichet:

Did you see his remarks yesterday!

"Market intervention is a weapon at the disposal of every central bank" according to Daily Telegraph 3/12/04 page 87 (Ambrose Evans Prichard in Brussels).

Take a look at the report. It’s amazing.

Market gossip says that German buying of physical gold – always high at Christmas – is at unprecedented high levels this year. DT article may have some bearing on this too. Also questions about a big gold bank with a customer caught short.

***

Fumes this morning from Café members came pouring through the computer as we all watched The Gold Cartel go into action following the very disappointing US jobs number. When you include the downward revisions in previous months, it could be called a bit of a shocker (see below).

Why gold did what it did the past two days becomes very clear. The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets are in deep trouble because the dollar is in deep trouble and the US economy is far weaker than Wall Street/Washington is letting on. In addition to Caribbean-based market propping, this may be the reason the bonds maintained their strength for such an extended period of time.

What is ironic is the economic scenario in Europe is no better than it is here. However, their big-picture structural problems are not so dire, nor are they mired with a disastrous situation in Iraq, one with very negative financial market implications as we go into next year. Still, one currency after another has reasons to be weaker than the next one. The exception, of course, is GOLD – which is just WHY The Gold Cartel and allies are sitting all over it. As they have done for months, the bums are doing all they can to dampen gold fever and suppress excitement over it being the "go to" investment of choice during this dollar devaluation period.

By the close:

*The dollar, falling all day long, ended up down .99 to 80.98.
*The euro rallied 1.86 to 134.55.
*The pound leaped 2 to 194.16.
*The yen dropped to 102.08

No worries, the dollar has Charlie McCarthy Snow going for it:

14:10 On CNBC, Treasury Secretary Snow reiterates strong dollar policy, will not comment on intervention
Despite repeated prodding by anchor Ron Insana, Snow refuses to comment on either the recent trading in the FX markets, or the possibility of intervention by either the US or ECB.
* * * * *

Perhaps this is a more apt comparison for Snow:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/treasurysecy.jpg

The reasons for the gold price manipulation have been brought to your attention three times the past two weeks via the comments made by Paul Volker in his memoirs. Now, you have Trichet’s comments which enhanced what Volker intimated should be done in the future to protect a dollar fall from getting out of control.

The management of the gold price is a fact. What is so infuriating is the gold industry’s refusal to deal with reality. As per that Jack Nicholson line in the movie, A Few Good Men, "They can’t handle the truth." This is a travesty and is so for many reasons:

*It has fostered lies and deceptions from Wall Street and Washington.

*Gold companies' profits have been stifled by rising costs as the price is rising in dollar terms only.

*It is retarding economic growth in the gold producing companies of sub-Saharan Africa and inhibiting those countries from dealing with horrendous disease and poverty issues.

*The suppressed price is camouflaging a more struggling economic scene in America and the real inflation picture.

*Gold is used as a financial market barometer by many. By keeping the price unnaturally low, The Gold Cartel is taking away a warning signal to the little guys and gals in America that all is not copacetic.

*It has made a farce of the notion we have free markets in the US and shows our hypocritical ways in this country.

*It is leading to some chaos down the road. The Gold Cartel forces are using up their available supply while world-wide demand is soaring. They will run out and when they do the price will go bananas. The ramifications will be significant and the authorities won’t know how to explain it to the public.

The leaders (a misnomer if there ever was one) in the gold industry are a disgrace for allowing this farce to continue. In the end it will have been proved to have harmed many and help only a few elitists in New York and Washington. Short-term gain for the few will lead to long-term pain for the many.

Back to the market action. After Five O’clock Charlie conducted one of his patented MASH bombing missions with a gold dump, gold came right back, going up on the day. Charlie missed his target again, keeping his ridiculed reputation intact.

***

When gold went up on the Comex, I stopped writing until nearly the close. Talk about a change in tone!

Where do we go from here?

February gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/25

Gold weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Last week I thought gold was setting up to go parabolic to the upside. Looks even more that way as of tonight’s close. The corrupt cabal still kept gold from going higher in other currencies. Gold in euros fell to 336 before recovering to 339 and change, well off its recent high of 344. This should not last too much longer. It is creating too much big money demand from those who want in on this cheap gold in foreign currency terms.

What to look for:

*A runaway gap opening with gold streaking up from there instead of down.

* A Commercial Signal Failure.

John Brimelow Report

Oil splattered Bears: Fur scorched?

Friday, December 03, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.39, PM $8.49, with world gold at $448.90 and $449.15. High; very ample for legal imports. Some might wonder why yesterday afternoon’s extreme double digit premium was not repeated. I believe the India import business is economically quite efficient. Provided the import dealers have adequate credit limits, they will act to close excessive price gaps such as developed yesterday.

Mitsubishi says of TOCOM today:

"With fresh Public Tocom buying, spot Gold edged up to 449.20/70 . Dealers selling capped there. The afternoon session …steady Tocom…reached to its high, 450.00/50 but capped again by dealers selling."

Volume was equivalent to 19,465 Comex lots (+4.3%), open interest rose the equivalent of 1,518 Comex to equal 108,463 NY contracts. The active contract was down 3 yen and world gold was unchanged on the close. (NY yesterday traded 78,572 contracts; open interest fell 1,219 lots to 353,992. ETF outstandings were again virtually static.)

The minimal decline in short interest yesterday implies some shorting. The most lucid account of the drama is that of Scotia Mocatta:

"The metal... topped out at 455.60, as dealers were noted sellers leading to further weakness as the day progressed. The US Dollar then rallied back convincing the dealers to lean even heavier on the gold. The metal fell to the 450.00 area where…fund selling forced gold as low as 446.70/447.20, filling in resting scale down physical buying interest in the process. The metal then bounced off the low on dealer position squaring taking gold back to 450.30/450.80 at the close."

The "noted sellers" at $455/6 have of course been called back into action today, probably to their surprise.

The concept that gold, which of course ignored a serious sell-off in Oil on Wednesday, was blocked by the usual selling wall (at $455 this time) finds an interesting echo in today’s Gartman letter. Displaying a chart showing gold at the upper reaches of an uptrend channel, Gartman says:

"We shall now go on record to say that we have almost certainly seen the highs for gold for weeks, if not months, into the future. $455-456 shall be the highs against which we can not only exit our long positions that have been hedged… but against which we can actually sell gold short. (JB emphasis) We'd be not at all surprised to see spot gold trade back very near to the $405-410 level, over the course of the next month or two, with the risk now being heavily skewed against those who are long."

Besides his commendable function as a news consolidator, Gartman’s primary function seems to be as a mirror for a certain sector of Wall Street opinion. The $455/6 level looks like being seriously contested.

Revealingly, Gartman has this to say about world affairs “we said in our "presentation" at the EUROMONEY conferenceyesterday in New York that we are certain that the surprise next year shall be that "Peace shall break out everywhere." At the EUROMONEY conference my prediction was met with general derision....proving it correct.”

An invaluable (if earthier) correction to this view can be seen at

http://www.exile.ru/2004-November-26/war_nerd.html

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US economic news:

08:30 November nonfarm payrolls +112K vs. consensus +200K; unemployment rate 5.4% vs. consensus 5.4%
* * * * *

08:30 October non-farm payrolls revised to 303K from 337K; Oct. unemployment rate unrevised at 5.5%
* * * * *

08:30 November average hourly earnings reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.3%
Average weekly hours reported 33.7 vs. consensus 33.8.
* * * * *

08:32 Dollar plummeting in reaction to employment data
Euro/dollar rallies to $1.3356; dollar/yen Y102.52. Gold rallies to $452.50 in reaction to weaker dollar.
* * * * *

WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - A surprisingly soft 112,000 new U.S. jobs were created in November, the Labor Department said on Friday, casting a shadow across an already downbeat holiday sales season with consumers apparently worried by scarce work and high oil prices.

The November figure -- the weakest since July -- came in well below Wall Street economists' forecasts for 180,000 new jobs, though the unemployment rate eased to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in October.

In addition, Labor lowered its estimates for job growth in both September and October. October's gain was marked down to 303,000 from an originally reported 337,000-job increase. The department cut September's total to 119,000 from 139,000.

Some of the weaker performance reflected a trailing off of construction activity in Southeastern states after four hurricanes swept through the region in the fall. Only 11,000 construction jobs were added last month, compared with 65,000 in October. October's construction gain was the strongest since March 2000.

Manufacturing employment posted a third successive monthly drop in November, losing 5,000 jobs after what had appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in the hard-hit sector earlier this year.

-END-

10:00 ISN Non-manufacturing reported 61.3 vs. consensus 58.5
* * * * *

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Friday Dec. 3, 2004 – Issue 3050 "Independent View of the News"

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), the regulator of FNM, reports US home prices surged 12.97% y/y in Q3, the biggest increase since the 13.1% in Q3 of 1979. That 1979 reading was just months before the peak of the biggest inflation since the Civil War.

And isn’t it convenient that the BLS does NOT use housing prices in its CPI compilation? But if they did, Q3 CPI would be substantially higher because ‘Owners equivalent rent of primary residence’ accounts for 23.383% of CPI. By our rough calculation, substituting the reality of home prices for some bean counter’s guess of what a person could rent their home to themselves would add about 2.2% to Q3 CPI. And that is why John Kasich wants to use CPI instead of a real inflation measure to adjust Social Security benefits. The covert scamming of the public, particularly the elderly and those depended on the government for a check continues. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

And of course that means Q3 GDP is overstated by those 2.2 percentage points.

Is it duplicity or ignorance when economists and pundits believe CPI is valid without home prices but downplay record consumer debt levels by citing the huge increase in home equity to offset the debt?

Yesterday’s WSJ, on page 2, reports, "Health Spending Continues to Rise At a Fast Pace". According to the Center for studying Health System Change and the Employee Benefit Research Institute, US health care costs rose at an annualized 7.5% pace during the first half of 2004. Prescription drug prices increased 8.8%, a deceleration from the +9.6% rate of the second half of 2003. These healthcare and drug price increases would add about .3 to CPI.

Reuters: "Major U.S. retailers reported modest gains in November sales on Thursday, as discounting lured customers, but high energy prices and nagging concerns about a soggy job market kept buying in check. The results set a lackluster tone for the key holiday shopping season, which many Wall Street analysts anticipate will be solid, but not stellar this year."

US retailers reported, for the most part, disappointing November sales, even high-end stores.

The FT: "Eurozone manufacturing appeared close to contracting yesterday as the effects of the world economic slowdown and the stronger euro began to bite. Manufacturing output has already fallen in Germany and Italy, according to the November purchasing managers survey, compiled by NTC Research for Reuters. The eurozone output index fell by 3.6 points to 50.4 - the biggest drop since October 2001, the aftermath of the attacks on the US. The purchasing managers index, which acts as a forward indicator of production, fell from 52.4 in October to 50.4, the lowest since September 2003 and close to a point representing stagnation. "We are on the brink of an industrial recession in the eurozone," said Julian Callow, economist at Barclays Capital. Particularly alarming was the drop in the new orders index, which acts as a guide to trends. It fell from 52.6 in October to 49.8 in November, pointing to an actual decline in orders." http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2fc10…d9-af06-00000e2511c8.html

German unemployment rose to 10.8% in November, the highest rate since Dec. 1998. German companies, strapped by rising costs, are moving jobs to former Eastern Bloc countries.

AFP: "The eurozone economy got slapped with a wave of bad news Wednesday that highlighted a third-quarter slowdown, a decline in industrial activity and a stagnant job market. The reports came as sources close to the European Central Bank said the ECB had lowered its growth forecast for the eurozone this year to 1.8 percent from a previously projected 1.9 percent… In the third quarter, output in the 12 countries using the single European currency slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent in the second and 0.7 percent in the first, the European statistics institute Eurostat said." http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/041201174044.s6hg5q6q

-END-

Mahendra called this afternoon, full of smiles. Says I should make sure I have the right clothes to wear with my "Ten Horns" hat. His gold move prediction is right on target. Silver to follow he says. He was very excited about his top new pick, CORN, which finished up 3 ¼ cents. My friend the seer continues on his hot streak.

Garic, sent me this email with gold down on the day, and after he bought futures near the lows of the session (knocking on wood in his note to me at the time):

When you call your sources today, I hope you will ask why rational investors were selling gold at lower prices after the 9th out of last 10 disappointing employment reports this morning. Clearly we have structural problems because of higher healthcare, outsourcing etc. The investors who own gold like me are investing in Gold because we see the Fed having negative real interest rates for a long time to battle these problems. We are uninterested in the Euro because they have negative real rates also. So the commercials who sold gold today would appear to be the speculators. You may want to ask them why it is so important to get gold below $450 in the spot market. Could your sources have derivative problems over $450? It is my opinion in an unmanaged market with dollar probing new lows and interest rates lower than they were after yesterdays plant from the Fed in the Journal that Gold could have been up $10 or $20 this morning.
garic@charter.net

Thoughts from London after the pop:

Good afternoon Bill
I was interested to read the above article by Michel de Chabert-Ostland. Having nothing better to do than watch the dollar freefall again and gold spin its wheels trying to get some traction (which it got, making a move from $449.80 to $455.20 as I wrote this), I decided to apply a very simple Elliott Wave analysis to the spot gold price, which I believe is just starting a third wave up in the first wave of this secular gold rally.

I am no expert at this, so I would stand corrected by anyone who can do this better than I can.

The first wave up took gold from $252 to $325 - a move of $73.

Gold then corrected to $290 before rising to $433, to complete the second wave and correcting to $374.

The calculation for the high of the third leg up is: the first leg up of $73 x fibonacci 1.68 = $123; added to the second wave high of $433.

This gives a figure for the move of $556.

This compares reasonably well with the $580 target using the "teacup and handle" analysis I sent you in October.

Paradoxically, perhaps, I am not all that happy that gold makes a move that far, that fast (since third wave moves are strong and powerful), since you need to consider what it portends for the US$, and what message gold is sending. Certainly not better times. However, this will be payback time for the gold cartel and its years of chart painting and manipulation; they have created the very chart that will now lead to them being immolated.
Have a good weekend.
Ian

Big picture stuff before the gold pop:

Hey Bill,
I won't even go into my thoughts on the ridiculous price action. It's as if each day tops the prior day's craziness.

Anyhow, on a more pleasant topic I thought I'd share with you the following passage from Michener's classic "Caribbean", written decades ago. Reading it made me realize just how important gold is to the Indian culture, time immortal.

It is a fictional story of an Indian immigrant to Trinidad, whom is writing stories about his ancestors in India. These two simple paragraphs support all you have been saying about Indian demand, in my view.
Andy

Jewels as a proof of love: Grandfather said that if an Indian really loved his wife, he gave her jewels to prove it. I found a diary of a French traveler who wrote in 1871 of my great-great grandfather's wife: 'In Port of Spain at the well-known Portugeee Shop, I met Madame Banarjee, a woman of great charm who wore on each arm some twelve or fourteen big bracelets of solid gold or silver. Around her neck she wore chains of the same metal on which hung large disks of silver embellished with precious stones from Brazil, while in her nose she wore an immense diamond. Her worth as she walked to greet me must have been tremendous.

How to treat grave robbers: When the wife of my great-great grandfather died, he buried her wearing all her gold and silver, and an English official protested: 'But you're throwing away a fortune', but he replied: 'She brought me a fortune, and I would not like to see her in another world poorer than when she came to me.' Three days later, when the police came to the Portugee Shop to inform him that grave robbers had dug into her coffin and taken all the precious metals and the jewels, he said 'They were hers. She spent them as she thought best.' But when some of the jewels surfaced in the Trinidad bazaars sometime later, he made careful note of who had them and of how they had obtained them, and shortly after that several men were found dead...one by one.

-END-

Houston’s Dan Norcini with some good COT analysis:

This is the first week that I can recall in some time in which gold made net gains from Tuesday to Tuesday and the bulk of the NET BUYING was done by the COMMERCIAL category even though the market was in a sustained uptrend (February Gold closed at 450.20 on the Tuesday of November 23 when the this period's Commitments Data begins). This past Tuesday, November 30, that same contract closed at 453.20 after reaching a high of 457 on Monday). In other words, gold ran up another $6.80 based on Commercial buying and small spec short covering. The Funds were the main sellers this week.

We have seen this before but only when gold was experiencing those huge reaction sell offs. If this trend continues, and that is a big "IF", it will mark a major change in the fundamental structure of the composition of traders. Could this be the beginning of a commercial capitulation? It is too early to tell but this is certainly a nice treat for a change.

The commercial category were actually net buyers of some 8,400 contracts versus the funds who were net sellers of a bit over 10,000 contracts. We finally saw the small spec category become net sellers as many of those who were top picking were forced out. That serves them right for listening to their gold advisors. I hope them have the common sense to cancel their subscriptions and not renew for another year. Those advisors are a pox on the entire gold community and the sooner their victims wake up and release that they have done nothing but lose them money, the better off the entire gold community will be.

There was a total reduction of some 7,000 contracts from the previous reporting period to 345,646; however, that has pretty much disappeared already as today's release of the open interest totals for Thursday came in at 353,992 compared to the total open interest reported in last week's Commitments data at 352,638. It will be interesting to see if next Friday's release confirms this same pattern since we will have an increase in the open interest totals barring anything remarkable come this Monday and Tuesday.

What this data reveals is that some commercial end users of gold are actually chasing prices higher especially since the bulk of the commercial purchases were NEW LONG positions. It does appear that some of the trading funds are attempting to pick a top. It will be interesting to see how this goes next week especially after watching the dollar experience a late session sell off after the pit session Comex trading was closed.

Silver has yet to see the commercial category become net buyers for the week although the data does not include the price action of the past few days especially the all important charge above $8.00. The data does show that the net short commercial position is very close to the same size as it was back when it peaked in March of this year. I wonder if some of them have reached their peak threshold of pain yet or intend to hang around for some more in the hopes of some long liquidation to bail them out. I would personally love to see next week's release reveal some of these infernal, permanent commercial silver shorts covering. Will have to wait on that. Talk about what a nice Christmas present that would be!
Dan