Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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US-Handelsbilanzdefizit unerwartet auf 60,3 MRD USD im November gewachsen.

U.S. Trade Gap Widened to Record $60.3 Bln in Nov. (Update1) Listen

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly grew to $60.3 billion in November, the widest ever, as demand for oil and consumer goods drove imports to a record. Exports fell.

The trade gap increased 7.7 percent from the previous record of $56 billion in October, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The trade gap with China held close to the previous month's record.

The $561.3 billion deficit through November exceeds the record for all of 2003. A rebound in consumer spending during the second half of last year boosted demand for imported products in the world's largest economy. Slower growth in Japan and Europe than in the U.S. may have limited demand for American goods, economists said.

``The U.S. is growing faster than nearly everyone else, and that kind of dynamic means that imports will be growing faster than exports for some time, despite a weaker dollar,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The dollar weakened against the euro and yen after the report.
Aus
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…YVWY&refer=top_world_news

Und so wird es schöngeredet:

US-Finanzminister John Snow hat das für November ausgewiesende Rekorddefizit in der Handelsbilanz von 60,3 Mrd USD auf das starke Wachstum der US-Wirtschaft zurückgeführt. Am Rande eines Auftritts an der New York Stock Exchange sagte Snow am Mittwoch, "das Defizit reflektiert den wachsenden Reichtum der Amerikaner". Zuvor hatte der US-Finanzminister bereits darauf verwiesen, dass die Politik der USA auf einen starken Dollar ausgerichtet sei. An dieser Politik habe sich bislang nichts geändert, betonte Snow.
Aus:
http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm…ome&sektion=marktberichte

Die amerikanische Politik des starken Dollars ist hinlänglich bekannt

Je reicher, um so mehr wird importiert (USD); je ärmer, um so mehr wird exportiert (BRD) (?)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/img_layout/header_logo3_r1_c8.gif]

Murphy und Turk werden´s wieder für einen glasklaren Beweis für das Wirken der Goldkabale halten:

Der Streettrack Goldfunds hat inzwischen fast 4,5 Mill Unzen zusammen:

Total Gold in Trust:
Tonnes: 139.60
Ounces: 4,488,253
Value US$
1,890,712,131.56

Zunächst hatte der Funds 103 Tonnen, dann wurden 20 Tonnen verkauft. Zeitgleich fiel der Goldpreis um 20 Dollar; Murphy war außer sich.

Inzwischen hat der GLD um über 50 Tonnen zugelegt. Leider ohne den Goldpreis zu bewegen, was doch eindeutig beweist, daß der Funds gar kein echtes Gold kauft, nur Derivate.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/images/DSC_0130_250.jpg] 
Graham Tuckwell, joint managing director
of Gold Bullion Securities, and Stuart
Thomas, managing director of World Gold
Trust Services, inspect the gold in trust at
HSBC's gold vault in London. The gold is
being held in Trust for the shareholders of
GLD.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/images/DSC_0178_250.jpg]
Stuart Thomas, managing director of World
Gold Trust Services, in the HSBC vaults in
London. The gold is being held in Trust for
the shareholders of GLD.

#Ulfur,

das ist ja wirklich eine interessante Meldung!!

gruß hpoth

Die Faz fragte Vermögensverwalter nach ihren Lieblingsfinanzbüchern.

Geldanlage
Bücher, die das Geld bedeuten

11. Januar 2005 Wir haben Vermögensverwalter gebeten, uns ihr liebstes Finanzbuch vorzustellen. Erhalten haben wir Empfehlungen fernab von Bestsellerlisten, vieles davon erstaunlich alt. Dem Leser begegnen scharfsinninge Analytiker, brave Sparer und hoffnungslose Zocker, die an der Börse ihr Glück versuchen.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979…Tpl~Ecommon~Sspezial.html

Ein Vermögensverwalter stellt ein Buch vor, das einigen bekannt sein dürfte:

Joachim Paul Schäfer
Mit Glanz und Gloria

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.faz.net/imagecache/%7BD82B7F49-1297-4517-AFFD-6A339E382AC5%7Dfile2.jpeg]

11. Januar 2005 Der Schweizer Bankier Ferdinand Lips beschreibt in der "Gold-Verschwörung" einen Krieg, der still und heimlich ausgetragen wird.

Ausgangspunkt: der Goldstandard. Er hat in der Geschichte der Volkswirtschaften stets Wohlstand und Preisstabilität gesichert. Da ist es verwunderlich, daß diese fast perfekte monetäre Symbiose, in der die Geldmenge nur in einem Maß ausgeweitet werden kann, wie Gold vorhanden ist, aufgegeben wurde. Der Grund: Ohne Goldstandard kann ein Staat soviel Geld drucken, wie er will, um einen Krieg oder niedrige Steuern zu finanzieren.

Die Folgen dieser Papierblase: Der Dollar büßte seit 1900 mehr als 95 Prozent seiner Kaufkraft ein, die Staatsverschuldung erklimmt immer gefährlichere Höhen, besonders in Amerika. Lips ist überzeugt, daß uns als Folge der maßlosen Verschuldung und des grenzenlosen Konsums bald die Luft ausgeht. "Die Goldverschwörung" ist ein spannender und wahrer Wirtschaftskrimi, der jedem zu empfehlen ist, der hinter die Kulissen der Finanzbranche schauen will.

Ferdinand Lips: Die Gold-Verschwörung, Kopp, 2003, ISBN 3930219549, 382 Seiten, 19,90 Euro.

Joachim Paul Schäfer ist Partner der PSM Vermögensverwaltung in München.

Eine Analyse dazu, dass das gegenwärtige Szenario aussieht wie 1929:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/stein011205.html

Es ist das gleiche Szenario !!

January 12 – Gold $425.50 up $4 – Silver $6.70 up 10 cents

$6 Rule AGAIN / The Gold Industry Needs An Overhaul

"To prevent inquiry is among the worst of evils." --Thomas Holcroft

"Borrowers are nearly always ill-spenders, and it is with lent money that all evil is mainly done and all unjust war protracted." - John Ruskin, The Crown of the Wild Olive (1866)

GO GATA!!!

When I retired last evening gold was up $1 in Asian trading and the dollar was slightly higher. When I awoke, the dollar was slightly weaker, yet gold was down $1. Same drill as we have seen so often of late. I wondered what was up. Gold was the very oversold market, not the euro.

It didn’t take long to find out:

08:30 Nov. Trade deficit widens to $60.3B vs. consensus $54B
Prior deficit revised to $56B from $55B. Watch potential impact on the dollar.

What a stunner! The dollar quickly went into free fall after the announcement and gold began a labored rally. Obviously The Gold Cartel knew what was coming and wanted gold to climb out of a hole and make it easier for them to institute their $6 Rule. The market has only been open an hour and the high so far is $427.40, up $5.90, which will surely be the high of the day – therefore, there is little need to wait to do this commentary. The cabal forces are on full alert and have gone into action like so many other times over the years.

Vet Café members: how many times have I brought The $6 Rule to your attention over the past few years, say 30? 40? Recently you saw gold drop $10+ three times within a two week period, yet it is never allowed to rise more than the parameters of the cartel’s $6 Rule. Wouldn’t you think any one of the dingbat mainstream gold pundits might make note of this after such repetitive trading activity? Wouldn’t you think someone in the gold industry might raise a Red Flag? This is the dopiest industry in history.

Even those in the gold world with the intellectual capacity of a "grapefruit" could see the price of gold was capped, manipulated, managed today. The gold market is oversold. Most markets which are oversold, and after the specs dumping 100,000 long positions, would soar in price on unexpected bullish news. NOT GOLD!

The dollar fell sharply to 82.18 down .89. The euro leaped to 132.75, up 1.47, while the yen rose steeply to 102.38. On this kind of trade news the gold market was not allowed to respond as it would in a free market. Gold should have surged $15, instead of a measly 4 bucks.

All you need to do to understand what is going on here in the gold market is review the December 29th MIDAS commentary again:

The motives of The Gold Cartel are as plain as day:

*The Gold Cartel and US financial market power structure know the dollar must fall. However, they are concerned a dollar rout could cause some sort of financial market instability or panic. To prevent such an occurrence, they are following Paul Volker’s insight and what he had to say regarding the rise in the gold price in 1980:

"…..Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.

"Through March, the price of gold rose rapidly, and that knocked the psychological props out from under the dollar."

Could it be any clearer what is going on here?

***

So you have a bunch of slinking crooks keeping the gold price artificially suppressed and there is nary a peep about this except from the GATA camp. Meanwhile, many of the share prices are stinking up the place. Besides intervention short-selling by the same bunch of bums, many of the shares aren’t going anywhere because the gold companies can’t make any money at these prices. Their costs keep going up as the Canadian dollar and South African rand go up relative to the rise in the gold price. A good many are being squeezed. I know this for a fact from a couple of the shrewdest people in the industry.

Thus, you would think many of the gold companies would be SCREAMING FOUL! Yet, year after year they say and do nothing. Unbelievable how this can go on and on.

It is actually worse than that. The leaders in the industry support an organization, the World Gold Council, which is clueless/devious and hell bent on doing what it can promotion-wise to turn people away from gold as investment.

A few excerpts from last week’s WGC farce:

Financial Times

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When the World Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots.

Steve Kershaw, creative director at Bartle Bogle Hegarty, the advertising agency that worked on the gold campaign, says the photographers were chosen because the aim was to have a campaign to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold….

-END-

There couldn’t be one Café member who would invest in gold, or the shares, after reading this nonsense. I didn’t think it could get worse, but it did today.

Jessica Cross, is the wife of the former number two at the South African Reserve Bank. She has been allied with the World Gold Council over the years, presently works for Virtual Metals, and is often invited to speak at various gold conferences. She is also able to get press whenever she wants it.

So now for some comments emanating from today’s gold conference in Sweden:

By Simon Johnson
Reuters
Wednesday, January 12, 2005

STOCKHOLM -- Gold is no longer the metal of choice for the adornment of the ruling class because "chavs" are reducing its elitist appeal.

Rappers, hip-hop artists, and youngsters copying their pop icons are gold's new poster-children and the move downmarket could hurt the gold price in the longer term, according to analyst Jessica Cross….

Cross believes that gold jewellery is losing its gilt-edged status.

Quoting from a British website, she defined the modern British jewellery lover as someone who drapes their body with "hunks of worthless 9 carat gold crap."

British "chavs" -- new slang for the urban underclass -- and their "bling-bling" and hip-hop U.S. cousins buy high-fashion brands of clothes but bargain basement pendants and rings.

This is putting off the traditional -- and wealthy -- gold buyer, according to Cross.

Some might call this snobbery but there are signs that demand for gold jewellery, which makes up around 80 percent of annual demand for gold, is waning….

***

For the full article:
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsA…pe=topNews&storyID=652427

-END-

With all that is going on in the world, this is what people hear at a gold conference from a supposed expert, a pro. One of my colleagues called her an incompetent joke and suggested I not get my dander up. Yet, this JOKE is the one who has the ear of the press around the world; that potential investors make note of. It is this JOKE who purposely prevents the truth about the gold market from surfacing.

I refer again to a MIDAS in 2000:

9/10 - Letter to FAZ in Response to Jessica Cross and The World Gold Council /GERMAN TRANSLATION

An den Herausgeber der FAZ
Herr Jürgen Jeske
Hellerhofstraße 2 - 4
60327 Frankfurt am Main

Dear Herr Jeske,
According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine's September 7 article, the World Gold Council and its market analyst, Jessica Cross, dispute the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's findings about the dangerous size of the international gold loans, and they believe that there is no evidence of collusion to suppress the gold price.

As chairman of GATA, I would like to reply…

To bolster my case I refer to splendid commentary by Reg Howe of http://www.GoldenSextant.com. Please see Appendix.

GATA’s Andrew Hepburn matter-of-factly stated to the attendees at the GATA luncheon at the New Orleans Investment Conference that the intellectual capital in the gold industry was in the room (GATA camp) and most of the rest was "drivel." Compare what Reg has to say re gold versus that of Jessica Cross/World Gold Council and tell me that is not so.

Something has to be done about this. Guess what? Something is being done. Stay tuned!

Spoke with our STALKER source today who relays the following:

*The Chinese are buying up everything: coal, silver, oil, copper, gold etc. As we all know they are loaded up with dollars. Rather than dumping them, they are going around the world and buying materials and stacking up inventories.

*They have four gold exchanges up and running with 4 more to come.

*Demand for gold in China will accelerate to a substantial degree.

*One big question is how their currency will be accepted down the road. Our Stalker source likens it to the Australian dollar as far as coming acceptability.

*Feels the powers will do all they can to keep gold in the $454 to $480 area. However, he believes gold will hit $500 this year and then they will go all out to stop the price from going further.

*Silver will outperform gold.

*Demand for gold will increase in Europe.

*The Italians will be buying more gold for jewelry purposes and the Indians will increase their buying for investment purposes (high-karatage jewelry).

*He says President Bush has a number of skeletons in his closet and there are a number of scandals brewing in the Bush Administration.

*The main STALKER, thought to be Chinese has finished his gold buying. One of the smaller stalkers took profits on his gold buys and won’t be back. The other smaller stalkers (3 of them), also thought to be of Chinese origin, still have $1 ½ billion of gold buying to do.

The John Brimelow Report

TOCOM buying; NY covering; Bears worrying?

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.56, PM $8.04, with world gold at $422.50 and $421.70. High; lavish for legal imports.

Superficially TOCOM was restrained. The active contract closed down 3 yen but world gold went out $1 above the NY close. Volume was equal to 21,500 Comex lots (-40%). However, open interest rose the equivalent of 1,298 Comex lots, and according to Mitsubishi (by inference) the general public long jumped 10.4 tonnes (3,344 Comex contracts). This despite a firm yen. It appears Japanese gold appetite may be reviving – which could be important.

NY yesterday traded 57,872 contracts – a steep 26% more than estimated. Open interest fell another 3,614 contracts – another 11.2 tonnes, meaning open interest is down some 54,500 contracts or 170 tonnes since the Dec 28 peak. But for the first time since then, open interest declined appreciably on an up day in gold – gold finished + $2.70c. Perhaps short covering has begun.

Nevertheless, there continues to be serious overhead resistance, which judging from today’s action is keyed to the E320.5 level rather than a $US price. If NY is covering shorts and TOCOM indeed building longs again - quite apart from Indian activity - this level will be expensive to defend.

The noted bear is sufficiently concerned about Japan to attempt a disparagement (usually he is very discreet about TOCOM action). He continues to anticipate a bullish event short term – anyone figuring out what it is urged to share this knowledge!

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Some more on the trade deficit:

WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November to a record $60.3 billion, propelled by the highest-ever oil import bill and a drop in exports, a government report showed on Wednesday.

The trade gap topped $60 billion for the first time and defied Wall Street expectations that it would narrow to $54 billion in November. October's deficit was revised up to a $56.0 billion gap from the originally reported $55.5 billion.

The deficit has continued to balloon despite a 50 percent drop in the value of the dollar against the euro over the past three years, which has been expected to gradually narrow the gap.

The trade shortfall for the first 11 months of 2004 was $561.3 billion, well past the record of $496.5 billion set for all of 2003.

Although average oil import prices retreated slightly in November, they remained high enough to push the value of crude oil imports to record $13.4 billion.

Meanwhile, imports from China fell only fractionally to $19.6 billion from the record $19.7 billion set in October. The trade imbalance with China accounts for about 25 percent of the overall U.S. trade deficit.

Rising U.S. consumer demand for household goods and other products helped boost overall imports by 1.3 percent to a record $155.8 billion. Strong demand for advanced technology products widened the deficit in that category to a record $5.8 billion.

U.S. exports slipped 2.3 percent to $95.6 billion, as shipments of U.S. industrial supplies and materials -- including things such as plastic and chemicals -- fell in the face of weaker foreign demand. U.S. auto and auto part exports also edged lower.

Even though the drop in the value of the dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive, demand from major U.S. trading partners remains weak and the Federal Reserve has cautioned against expecting any significant improvement in the near term.

While the U.S. trade deficit with China improved slightly from the record set in October, the bilateral gap with Japan was the highest since October 2000 and deficits with Canada, Russia and South Korea set records in November.

-END-

That deficit news should have sent gold up sharply and the US stock market reeling. Not when you have the Working Group on Financial Markets going into action. After an early drubbing, the market roared back. When will this manipulation ever end? The DOW rose 62 to 10,618 and the DOG gained 13 to 2093.

Iraq is a mess, the trade deficit is a horror show, as are the US budget deficits. Nothing matters. The Plunge Protection team will continue to glue the markets together until they just blow up. That is when the tsunami hits.

Charlie McCarthy Snow was sent out to spin right on cue:

Trsy's Snow-U.S. trade gap reflects growing income

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday the wider than-expected U.S. trade deficit reflects growing U.S. disposable income.

Snow was speaking at the New York Stock Exchange.

Asked by a reporter about the record U.S. trade deficit in November and the prospects the deficit may widen this year, Snow said:

"The economy is growing at such a fast rate that it is generating lots of disposable income...some of which is used to buy goods from our trading partners."

"We are growing faster than our trading partners and we are creating more disposable income than they are," he said.

"We need Europe to be more of an engine of growth and we need Japan to be more of an engine of growth," Snow said.

As Europe and Japan's economies "grow faster they will buy more from us," he added.

Snow also said the world's growth rate will be on the G7 agenda. The Group of Seven wealthy nations is slated to meet in February.

-END-

The dollar is already in bad shape. What if the Arabs really decide to dump it?

Euro to Play Greater Role in Global Reserves, Says SAMA Chief Al-Sayari
Khalil Hanware, Arab News

JEDDAH, 12 January 2005 — Hamad Al-Sayari, the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), said there has been no shift in world currency reserves from dollars into euros. He also said that the European single currency would play a greater role in global reserves in the future.

Unconfirmed reports of funds being moved from dollars into euros have contributed to the greenback’s decline over the past three years. A renewed wave of selling pushed the dollar to record lows of $1.3667 against the euro in December last year. The dollar also fell against the euro yesterday. The euro rose to 1.3166 dollars from 1.3088 late on Monday in New York.

"I don’t believe that there is a new shift (into euros) but the market has been expecting a dollar change (in values) due to the US deficits," Al-Sayari said yesterday in Basel, Switzerland, while attending a meeting of central bank governors…

-END-

What’s next to affect the dollar?

U.S. mulls strikes on Syria

By Richard Sale
UPI Intelligence Correspondent

New York, NY, Jan. 11 (UPI) -- Bush administration hard-liners have been considering launching selected military strikes at insurgent training camps in Syria and border-crossing points used by Islamist guerrillas to enter Iraq in an effort to bolster security for the upcoming elections, according to former and current administration officials…

-END-

14:00 Dec. monthly budget statement reported ($3.4B) vs. consensus $0.0B
December 2003 reading unrevised from ($17.6B).
* * * * *

Treasury Secretary Snow on Social Security Reform:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2005/TresSec.jpg]