Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • More caution:
    U.S. manufacturers more cautious in 4Q outlooks


    NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Industrial manufacturers were more cautious about their outlook in the fourth quarter, scaling back revenue forecasts and capital investment plans from the prior quarter, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers Manufacturing Barometer released on Wednesday.


    While executives at large manufacturers interviewed for the Barometer were more optimistic about the U.S. economy than the average of executives in all sectors, they were also more concerned about competition from foreign producers, oil and energy prices, currency fluctuations and decreasing profitability than their peers.


    Earlier this month, the Philadelphia Fed survey -- often used to gauge the overall state of factories nationwide -- showed a rise in factory activity and suggested stronger new orders and shipments, supporting the executives' optimism about the U.S. economy…


    -END-

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  • From Houston’s Dan Norcini on what just transpired in the markets:


    Bill:
    The entire gain of yesterday in both the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar, has been completely wiped out plus some. The Yen is working on giving back the entire gain as well. The Euro is holding up a bit better due to the action on the crosses but nonetheless has surrendered more than half its gains as I write this; same holds true for Swissie.


    It is "normal" for a bit of profit taking to surface after a move of that size in the dollar that we had yesterday but it is not 'normal" for the entire move to disappear. I saw this happening last night and knew something was taking place that reeked of dishonesty based on the price action alone as I have been around this game too long not to know when something funny is up.


    When those two stories came out about the S. Koreans backpedaling on their announcement to diversify their reserves only to be followed up by the Japanese frantically running to a microphone to announce that they had NO INTENTION of selling dollars or diversifying their reserves out of dollars and into euros or anything else, the FIX was in.


    As I said last night in our communication; someone got a phone call from a well placed individual and was told to get to a microphone or else.


    Then, this morning, we get a CONSTANT Price Index which defies any rational explanation.


    The CRB makes a 23 year high and there is not a whiff of inflation in the air according to our masters of deceit at the Labor Department.


    To add insult to injury we are informed that housing cost rose a mere 0.1 percent!


    "Don't believe what your eyes tell you, O peasants. We your lords and masters have decreed that all is well"


    Ironically, prior to the release of the index, the market chatter was that a strong number indicating inflation pressures would actually serve to benefit the dollar since it would force the Fed to hike rates more aggressively and thus generate a higher rate of return on dollar based investments (while this is pure idiocy I have learned that the idiots can do great damage to one's trading account until sanity is restored). Then we get a "tame" number which would have us believe that inflation is an endangered species which has been all but wiped out, and what do we see the dollar do---- drop further? Of course not! ...... It rallies!


    Result - bond hemorrhage stemmed; dollar drop stemmed; gold rise stemmed; silver rise stemmed; Dow index drop stemmed.


    What glorious saviors we have!


    If I don't stop here, I might say more than I should!
    Dan

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
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    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Interesting:


    Dear Bill,
    I have been having some fun with the U.S. National debt today. From another Gold’s web site, the U.S. national debt is $7,689,935,780,269.27 as of February 18, 2005. On September 30, 2004, the debt total was $7,379,052,696,330.32 for a total increase of $310,883,083,938.95 over the 141 day period. Extrapolating this number for the 365 day year, this works out to an annual debt increase of $804,768,266,934. This works out to a 10.9061% annual increase in the national debt. This rate of increase is not sustainable. To put this in perspective, if Christopher Columbus had lent the new world 1 troy ounce of gold in 1492 and had charged this amount of interest, the total debt at present would be 1.1539x10 E23 troy ounces. This represents 3,956,385,089,000,000,000 tons of gold. The total mass of earth’s moon is 2.363x10E24 troy ounce. The writers of the bible 3000 years ago understood this. Andrew Jackson understood this 200 years ago. Other than Ron Paul; our present Congressmen, Supreme Court Justice’s, President, and his Staff either do not comprehend or do not care what the banking cartel and its fiat money are doing to our nation. Gold and Silver is not inflatable and thus will preserve wealth against this inflation. I hope this information is useful to you, and if you think your readers would benefit, please share it with them. I would also like to thank you and Chris for the Le Metropole Café and your daily articles. –Bryant Blake

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Gold news:


    Gold jewellery sales up 19pc
    Posted: Tuesday, February 22, 2005


    Dubai


    Worldwide gold jewellery sales rose by 19 per cent to about $60 billion last year, reversing six straight years of decline, a World Gold Council (WGC) official said.


    Philip Olden, managing director for marketing and jewellery at WGC, also said on the sidelines of a conference in Dubai that a report by the council due out on Thursday would show that sales volume grew six percent last year.


    He said 2004 was the first year that gold jewellery sales had increased since 1997.-Reuters


    NEW DELHI, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Indian gold dealers urged the government on Wednesday to cut customs duties on the yellow metal and silver in the federal budget to make bullion trade attractive.
    India, the world's largest gold importer, buys an average of more than a tonne of gold a day to meet two-thirds of its annual gold needs of 600 to 700 tonnes.
    Gold jewellery forms an important part of Hindu marriages as parents give the metal to their daughters for financial security. The wedding season accounts for at least 60 percent of its annual bullion use.
    "The gold trade is expecting some rationalisation in the duty structure in the budget," said Daman Prakash, a top bullion official with south India-based MNC Pvt Ltd.
    Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram is scheduled to present to parliament on Feb. 28 the federal budget for the financial year beginning in April. Prakash said the government charges a customs duty of 100 rupees on gold TT bars (116.640 grams) that have a refiner serial number. Gold imported in any other form attracts a levy of 250 rupees per 10 grams.
    Traders said the government had imposed the differential duty structure to check illegal imports as bars with a serial number could be traced.
    Harmesh Arora, a Bombay-based bullion dealer, said the government should encourage refining of gold by allowing imports of raw gold.
    "We should do the value addition here rather than buying refined gold."
    India does not permit imports of raw gold.
    Dealers said trade was also expecting some clarity on the government's policy on whether any jewellery manufacturer can import gold.
    Just more than a dozen banks and government trading houses in India are allowed to import gold for traders and jewellers. The government has said it will permit individuals to import directly but no action has been taken so far. Rajiv Popley, a leading Bombay-based importer, said the government should reduce the import duty on jewellery by at least 5 percentage points from 20 percent because of growing demand for designer and 22-carat jewellery.
    "We buy jewellery mainly from Italy and Singapore for which the demand is growing at the rate of 20 percent per annum," he said.
    "If the government reduces duty, it will increase demand further and more companies from abroad will be attracted to set up shops in India."
    Dealers said trade in silver was growing and the government should cut by half the current import duty of 500 rupees per kg of silver to encourage its use.
    India annually imports about 4,000 tonnes of silver mainly from China, Russia and Mexico.


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Rhody on leaseing:


    'Morning Bill:
    Gold and silver lease rates are rising again. (They have been gradually rising since the 8th or 9th of February in both metals, but today we had a general firming, particularly in the near term rates) The monetary authorities are using leased metal to control the prices. These rates are still low, but you know my take on this is that the monetary authorities are holding rates down to facilitate the dumping of metal on the spot market. Lease contracts are then held in central bank vaults where they are counted as "good as gold" and no decline in reserves is registered. Gold lease rates are somewhat elevated in the near terms giving a flattened rate curve, a pattern that has persisted for the better part of a month. Silver's rate curve is more normal or "steep". I expect the near terms in silver to rise to mimic the pattern we now see in gold. The one month rates for both metals got quite close at .12% for gold and .15% for silver. Gold one month lease rates have been as low as .02 as recently as last November. The "spread" between one month gold rates and one year gold rates is typically 1 to 2% and has been as high as 4 or 5% on spikes. It is now .1%. The spread is being squeezed as mines get out of their hedges and commercial borrowers withdraw from the lease market as too dangerous. Leasing is dying.
    http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html


    Woops, update is necessary on lease rates. Gold just went into backwardation, all the way out to the 6 month term by jumping .02%


    There is some serious leasing being done to hold the line on gold here.


    Silver's rate curve flattened as the near term remained unchanged, while the two and three month terms decreased somewhat.


    The long and the short of it is gold's spread just got squeezed tighter to


    .05 between one month and one year rates. Rhody
    http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

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  • 07:10 GG GG upgraded to sector perform from underperform at CIBC (13.99)
    Cites attractive attributes such as low costs and a growth profile over the next three years.
    * * * * *


    We know the general investing public has no interest in the gold shares. Neither do many of the traditional gold shares investors. Many have fled to chase natural resource stocks, such as uranium, which have been on fire of late, according to a highly regarded broker in Vancouver who called this morning. This, among other factors, accounts for the crummy precious metals share action these days, especially among the smaller golds. Most rallies are dumped by anxious stale longs.


    Today was almost a spectacular gold day, but not quite. Gold held $430 support perfectly in classic fashion and reversed to the upside on the day, going up $1.30 at its best levels. At the time I mentioned to colleagues, if gold could close a buck or two a higher, it would be MOST impressive and a serious change of the trading pattern. We needed it to close with some serious oomph. The euro gold price was charging ahead, making a new recovery high of close of 329.25 (before settling back to 328.85 on the gold close). The CRB went positive as oil held yesterday’s sharp gains. Gold was doing the right things for the right reasons. Enter Gold Cartel to knock gold back and stifle some serious excitement. Par for the course. Orders from the cabal high command were carried out again.


    However, silver did rally 16 cents off its orchestrated mangling and gold did close higher. That, in and of itself, is a change in the precious metal's trading pattern of the last few years; is nice to see; and puts the gold and silver shorts on notice.


    Gold and silver are going MUCH higher.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

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  • Report: Russian Nuke Theft 'Has Occurred'


    NewsMax.com
    Wednesday, Feb 23, 2005
    U.S. intelligence officials say definitively that theft of Russian nuclear materials "has occurred," even as Russia's nuclear-powered plants remain ripe for terrorist attacks, Agence-France Presse reports.


    The new intel report adds additional worry that terrorists will be able to detonate a nuclear device on American soil, or that a rogue nation will obtain one or more nuclear weapons.


    Quoting a just-completed assessment by the CIA's National Intelligence Council, an agency that tracks and disseminates data to each of the nation's spy agencies, AFP says NIC's report was finished in time for President Bush's scheduled talks with Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, during the President's European tour this week.


    The administration has not made clear whether Bush planned to broach the subject with Putin.


    In the past, Russian officials have sometimes angrily denied any possibility of theft of radioactive materials from the country's atomic weapons sites and power plants.


    NIC analysts, however, clearly believe otherwise.


    According to an unclassified version of the report obtained by AFP, U.S. analysts wrote, "We assess that undetected smuggling has occurred, and we are concerned about the total amount of material that could have been diverted or stolen in the last 13 years."


    In the early days following the break-up of the former Soviet Union, the U.S. earmarked funds to assist Russia in either securing or dismantling its vast nuclear arsenal, now estimated to be about 4,000 warheads which are spread out between land, sea and air force-based assets.


    But since the last decade, many of those funds have dried up completely, much to the chagrin of American lawmakers and other officials who maintain the program was vital to prevent just this kind of scenario: theft of Russian materials.


    Russia also has thousands of nuclear warheads in storage, "plus a network of production and research facilities dealing with fissile substances," AFP reported, quoting U.S. officials.


    And though American intelligence analysts are fairly confident Russian weapons deployed in defense of their nation are secure, they added "we continue to be concerned about vulnerabilities to an insider who attempts unauthorized actions as well as potential terrorist attacks," says the unclassified version of the report.


    NIC analysts outlined some disconcerting evidence of their conclusions:


    In 2002, Russian Defense Ministry agents on two separate occasions "thwarted attempts by known terrorists to scout out nuclear weapons storage sites," AFP reported; A pair of sabotage and scouting groups with ties to Chechen rebels were found to be reconnoitering a number of major Russian railways near Moscow, looking to garner intelligence about trains hauling nuclear weapons; Some fissile material has been lifted from Russian research facilities and manufacturing sites over the past several years, including over 3 pounds of "90-percent enriched weapons grade uranium … from the Luch Production Association in 1992" and, "two years later, about three kilograms (6.6 pounds) of the same material" was taken from a site in Moscow, AFP said; In 1998, thieves made an attempt to steal over 40 pounds of a non-specified radioactive material from a Chelyabinsk plant — "an amount described as 'quite sufficient' to produce a nuclear bomb," says AFP.


    Based on the number of attempts, NIC analysts asserted it was "highly unlikely that Russian authorities would have been able to recover all the stolen materials."


    The issue came up in the Senate last week as well. Sen. John Rockefeller, D-W.Va., vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, asked CIA Director Porter Goss if the country was safe from terrorists equipped with stolen Russian nuclear materials.


    "No, I can't make that assurance," Goss replied. "I can't account for some of the material."


    Perhaps worse, NIC warned, Russian atomic power plants "almost certainly will remain vulnerable to a well-planned and executed terrorist attack."

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Schwabenpfeil ()

  • Pauli hat sehr schön ein paar Zielvorgaben (Zerstörung der Charttechnik etc. ) beschrieben, die sinnvoller erscheinen, als die starre Grenze von 6 Dollar.


    Schwabenpfeil: Im Gegensatz zu Dir scheint Murphy die Regel m.E. nicht nur als Zielsetzung oder Richtschnur zu sehen, sonst wären gelegentliche Überschreitungen kein Thema.


    ------------------


    Heute hat Thaiguru Geburtstag.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.cosgan.de/images/smilie/musik/c065.gif]


    Herzliche Glückwünsche!


    und schau mal wieder vorbei


    (auch wenn er´s kaum lesen wird ).


  • Hat denn jemand schon von diesem Gerücht gehört ? Was ist hier dran ?




  • Hallo Ulfur,



    meine Definition "Zielvorgabe" ist zugegebenermassen ebenso selbständig wie frei und nicht von Bill Murphy autorisiert ;)


    Den Glückwünschen in Richtung Thaiguru schliesse ich mich gerne an. Ich könnte mir durchaus vorstellen, dass er diese auch liest :rolleyes:



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • February 24 - Gold $434.20 down 40 cents - Silver $7.35 down 6 cents


    Gold Holds Technically, Gathering Strength To Go Much Higher



    "To be controlled in our economic pursuits means to be controlled in everything." --Fredrich von Hayek


    Will be off early to see my niece play tennis against New Mexico State, so out of here early again.


    A pretty wild day out there in the gold world with all sorts of cross currents. Just turned on CNBC in time to hear Becky the commentator explain Newmont Mining’s earnings were of the blow out type, however, The World Gold Council was panning demand for this coming year so the share price of Newmont was down 50 cents (her words).


    While I don’t blame the early Newmont share action on this WGC comment, it highlights what a moronic outfit the World Gold Council is. From all accounts, as documented for a long time in MIDAS, demand is surging and with what is on the geopolitical horizon and the US fiscal front, there is every reason to believe demand for gold should continue to accelerate this year. Yet, they pan it and the media runs with their pan? Perhaps they are talking about a high fashion jewelry slump due to higher gold prices and a weakening economy. The World Gold Council is beyond hopeless. They are nothing more than a front for The Gold Cartel and exist to keep the price of gold from going where it ought to. They are more than a disgrace. Their name ought to be the World Anti-Gold Council.

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • One thing was clear. There was tremendous tension in the markets early on today. They were volatile and frenetic. Take oil for example. It soared, fell back on mildly bearish stats, made new highs, then tanked down 70 cents on the day, and finally took off again for the highs, before drifting off once again.


    Meanwhile shorts pressed the currencies all session long only to hold their ground on the down side.


    The US market was all over the place too. Up, down, up down ... last seen charging ahead with yet another late Hail Mary rally.


    As the day wore on, it was like a storm that passed…the seas became tranquil. The markets calmed to a snore.


    Gold was $2 higher in early London trading, reflecting yesterday’s comeback. The cabal was not about to let that stand with Bush scheduled for a much anticipated press conference with Russia’s Putin. I wrote down two of President’s Bush’s comments for use down the road:


    "I live in a transparent country."

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    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • "Decisions in America are made out in the open."


    What the President failed to disclose is that these comments were geared for The Matrix/Stepford Wives folks in the US. You could almost hear them in response. "That’s right, Mr. President, that’s right, you tell the Commie the way it is in America."


    A proud day for the Orwellians.


    The gold open interest rose 10,603 contracts to 278,463. Not sure what to make of it except it reveals how The Gold Cartel is digging in to keep the gold price from taking off. As mentioned the other day, the reasons for the price of gold to go a lot higher don’t get much better, or couldn’t be any more obvious. Therefore, the cabalites feel it is much more necessary to squash the free market, which might reflect the true reality of inflation in the US.


    The silver open interest soared to 107,350, up a sizeable 5247 contracts. Most of the increase the past two days was option related. The shorts are pressing the case to flush out the longs who exercised their options for various reasons. This may include funds who were the sellers today. Mocatta and Morgan Stanley were noted buyers early in the day when silver broke as much as 16 cents lower.


    While The Gold Cartel huffs and puffs, the scenario for the price to explode in the months and years to come continues to build:

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
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    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • [miningmx.com] -- GOLD supply fell 13% in 2004 compared to 2003 recording the sharpest fall in mine production since the 1940s, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its annual review. Gold production, which totalled 2,478 tonnes in 2004, recovered slightly in the fourth quarter of 2004, however, owing to improved production from Grasberg, a large gold mine in Indonesia. The fourth quarter also benefited from a number of new mines, the WGC said…


    -END-


    The CRB took a rest, however, its chart belies the notion inflation is under control in the US:


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/45


    Technically, this was a good day for gold. April held its 100-day moving average of $433.20 and spot held $430 support for the second day in a row. Our floor source liked the fact April gold closed above $435.40.


    Gold powered its way through $430 and then was put in lock down by the bums. However, they have their hands full. Gold came back today even with the euro down .30. The gold chart is a beauty. Bullion ought to take out $440 very soon with silver closing above $7.50.


    April gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/45

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Schwabenpfeil ()

  • The John Brimelow Report


    Enter Funds; exit Japs (good?) but enter - ???


    Thursday, February 24, 2005


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.88, PM $5.95, with world gold at $434.25 and $435. Adequate for legal imports. The rupee managed an import-helpful rise today, notwithstanding heavy Reserve Bank intervention. Gold looks likely to be solidly supported by the largest world buyer at this level.


    TOCOM remains unenthusiastic. On volume equivalent to 22,560 Comex (- 29%) the active contract was unchanged. World gold edged up 15c from the NY close. However open interest slipped another 472 Comex lots, and Mitsubishi, available again for the first time since Monday, reports a 3.9 tonne drop in the implied public long. (NY yesterday traded 63,997 contracts. Open interest jumped 10,603 lots (32.98 tonnes!) to 278,463.)


    The steep liquidation by TOCOM deserves some thought. It is true that yen gold has risen sharply since early this month, but it is still below the general level of the 4th Quarter. A chart of TOCOM gold open interest vs. World gold indicates that, if anything, precipitous drops in TOCOM open interest have been associated with important $US gold price surges. Encouraging for gold’s friends.


    Close observation of world gold’s recent trading pattern clearly indicates heavy fund presence, countered, unfortunately for gold’s friends, by the traditional mystery seller. Yesterday, as ScotiaMocatta put it


    “Gold started the New York session 433.30/433.80. New York dealers then took advantage of market illiquidity and offered aggressively, forcing the price to the session low of 431.65/432.15. It appeared locals were caught short over the afternoon when fund bidding forced a scramble to cover their positions.”


    Today, after a quiet night gold surged from around 6am NY time –e.g. after the physically demanding fix - up to $436.75 – before reeling in Comex trading. Clearly a Bull wished to influence the market, only to find an opponent. The huge 33 tonne open interest increase yesterday on a miserable 30c rise in April gold indicates the seller was active yesterday as well. (What happened to the publicly documented Comex shorts?)


    So, on the face of it, the plan is for gold to sit out the general commodity ball currently underway. Possibly Indian and Middle Eastern fans might not agree.


    JB

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    US economic news:


    08:30 Jan. Durable Goods reported (0.9%) vs. consensus 0.0%; ex-Transportation 0.8% vs. consensus 0.3%
    Prior Durable Goods Orders revised to 1.4% from 0.6%; ex-Transportation revised to 2.8% from 2.1%.
    * * * * *


    Durable Goods Orders Drop on Cars, Planes


    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. made goods fell 0.9 percent last month as demand for autos and civilian aircraft fell, but businesses boosted orders for capital goods, the government said on Thursday.


    A 5.3 percent plunge in transportation equipment orders lay behind the drop in demand for durable goods, pricey manufactured items made to last three years or more. It was the first decline in durable goods orders since October, the Commerce Department said.


    Excluding the often-volatile transport category, however, durable goods orders climbed 0.8 percent.


    Wall Street economists had expected durable goods order to rise 0.1 percent with orders outside the volatile transport category up a sharper 0.4 percent..


    -END-


    8:30 Jobless claims for w/e 2/19 reported 312K vs. consensus 309K
    Prior week revised to 303K from 302K.
    * * * * *


    10:32 API reports crude oil inventories (3.4M) barrels
    Gasoline inventories expected +5.7M barrels, with distillate inventories expected +1.5M barrels. April crude trading lower to $51.20 in reaction to both sets of data.
    * * * * *


    10:30 DOE reports crude oil inventories +600K barrels vs. consensus +1.2M barrels
    Gasoline inventories reported +1.8M barrels vs. consensus +1.4M. Distillate inventories (700K) barrels vs. consensus (1.75M) barrels. April WTI crude is trading lower in reaction.
    * * * * *

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • US Treasuries drift lower on disappointing auction
    Thu Feb 24, 2005 01:11 PM ET


    NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices were pressured on Thursday after an auction of new U.S. government debt drew only meager demand, reviving worries that foreigners might be losing their appetite for U.S. debt.


    The sale of $24 billion in new two-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 3.498 percent. It drew bids for 1.93 times the amount on offer, below the already modest 2.01 achieved at the last sale and below last year's average of 2.2.


    Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up just $7.35 billion, or 31 percent of the whole issue. That only just beat the meager 29 percent at the last sale. Primary dealers themselves got $15.66 billion of the issue.


    Yields on the current two-year note ticked up to 3.49 percent from 3.45 percent late Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year note dipped 2/32, lifting yields to 4.28 percent from 4.27 percent.


    http://www.reuters.com/newsArt…e=topNews&storyID=7730871


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • US bankruptcies ‘to surge' amid junk bond deluge
    From James Doran, Wall Street Correspondent


    THE US is heading for a surge in bankruptcies and a dramatic increase in corporate debt default as the number of companies with bonds rated at the lowest end of the junk bond scale reaches record levels.


    More than 45 per cent of newly issued junk bonds are rated CCC, according to bond market analysts at Standard & Poor's (S&P), a dramatic increase since 2003 when 30 per cent of the junk bond market was made up of companies that were a notch away from default.


    "Whenever the proportion of new issuances trading at triple C rises above 30 per cent, there is cause for concern," said Diane Vazza, head of global fixed income research at S&P.


    If a company's debt is rated at CC or CCC, there is a 30 per cent likelihood that it will fail within a year, Ms Vazza said, and means the greater the number of companies rated at the bottom of the junk bond scale, the greater the number of defaults in the next 12 months.


    It is likely that the outlook for junk bond issuers will improve slightly this year, according to the S&P's research. But the improvement will only represent a calm before the storm because the number of defaults and bankruptcies is expected to increase dramatically by the end of next year.


    "This is how we see the cycle going forward," Ms Vazza said.


    The number of companies in the junk bond danger zone is likely to continue to grow this year because investors are pouring record sums into the junk bond market while the conditions are favourable. Today a company can issue junk bonds at a cost of 303-basis points above the cost of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which is considered cheap.


    "These are awesome supply conditions." Ms Vazza said. "Last year spreads were at 411 basis points, in 2003 it was 621 and in 2001 it was 773," she added.


    "So you can see why people are attracted to investing in junk bonds today."


    The types of companies that could be expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the next two years because of the debt status include some household names.


    Levi Strauss, the troubled jeans maker, is on S&P's list of junk bond issuers with a negative outlook. It has more than $2 billion (£1.04 billion) of debt rated at CCC. Default, or D, is a notch below CCC. Mitsubishi Motors Corporation of Japan is also on the list with $386 million of debt rated at CC.


    In the US, companies can apply for court protection from creditors if they file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 rules. In 2002 there were a record number of Chapter 11 filings by value in the US as WorldCom, the telecoms company, United Airlines, the international carrier, Conseco, Adelphia Communications, Kmart and NTL all defaulted.


    WorldCom is the record holder because the company had assets worth more than $103 billion on the day before its default and is credited with a bankruptcy worth $11 billion. However, the number of bankruptcies is running at a record low in the US at present.


    So far this year there have been 15, the lowest at this point in the year since 1997.


    Junk bond defaults are also running at a low with 1.8 per cent of issuers in default, down from 2.3 per cent last year. Over a 30-year period 4.9 per cent of all junk bond issuers default, which means the current number is well below average.


    "But the problems will come home to roost in 2006," Ms Vazza said.


    "There will be a definite peak in defaults. The junk bond market is on the turn."


    MOST LIKELY TO DEFAULT


    Mitsubishi Motors Corp
    Holley Performance Products
    Motor Coach Industries
    Granite Broadcasting
    American Lawyer Media Holdings
    Interep National Radio Sales
    Sports Club Co
    Levi Strauss & Co
    Salton In


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • 10:30 EIA reports natural gas inventories (88)bcf vs. consensus (92)bcf
    For reference, year-ago data was (164)bcf. Prior week's data was (98)bcf. March natural gas futures are currently trading to $6.47/Mbtu in
    initial reaction.
    * * * * *


    By Agence France-Press
    The China Post, Taipei
    Thursday, February 24, 2005


    DUBAI -- Gold and jewelry industry experts decided in Dubai on Tuesday to work toward forming an umbrella group to better market jewelry as a single category and make it more appealing to consumers, who favor spending on electronics and leisure….


    "I'll coordinate with the Dubai Gold and Jewelry Group and CIBJO (The World Jewelry Confederation) to put a working group in place marketing body, Paul Walker, chief executive officer of Gold Field Mineral Services Ltd, told AFP.


    Philip Olden, World Gold Council (WGC) managing director for marketing and jewelry, said the industry remains "very fragmented" at the retail level.


    The WGC would like to see what the body's objectives are, "and we would be happy to participate in that," he said….


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

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