Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

While the gold companies are hurting in SA, not the general share market:

MARKET REPORT: SA
JSE roars to record high
Alison Maltz
Posted Fri, 25 Feb 2005

The JSE Securities Exchange roared to a record high on Friday, with global resources group BHP Billiton leading the way. However, industrials were easier on profit taking following a strong week, while DRDGold took a merciless pummelling following its disappointing results released on Thursday.

The all share index ended 0.51 percent higher at a record closing level of 13 375.55. It touched a highest ever 13 380.48 earlier in the afternoon. Financials and resources firmed 0.75 percent and 1.09 percent respectively, while the banks index was 1.11 percent better. On the downside, industrials shed 0.22 percent, while the gold and platinum mining indices slipped 1.25 percent and 0.24 percent respectively.

After an early dip, the gold shares turned around. The HUI fell to the 213+ level and reversed to 216 and change, only to falter late, as usual to 215.36, up .74. The XAU rose .35 to 98.88

The CRB is overbought, yet remains in rocket ship mode. Should weather problems develop further in Brazil regarding their crops, lookout! The fundamentals for the dollar are also deteriorating on a monthly basis. The US is doing little to correct US fiscal problems, as demanded by our foreign creditors.

While gold and silver could do anything in the short-term, the scenario for dramatic moves to the upside is building with subtle rapidity. The Gold Cartel is there in spades, but in trouble. I think substantial trouble.

Hold The Fort and remember:

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Back to my regular schedule on Monday.

MORE THAN A THOUSAND WHISTLEBLOWER CASES DUMPED — Special Counsel Dismisses Hundreds of Disclosures and Complaints in Past Year

Washington, DC — The U.S. Special Counsel has dismissed more than 1,000 whistleblower cases in the past year, according to a letter from the Bush-appointed Special Counsel released today by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER). The Special Counsel appears to have taken action in very few, if any, of these cases and has yet to represent a single whistleblower in an employment case.

http://www.peer.org/news/news_id.php?row_id=483

-END-

Bush's 'priceless' war

By David Isenberg

WASHINGTON - Although the exact cost of the Iraq invasion to the American taxpayer is not known, recent figures suggest it is a lot more than has been publicly suggested and will grow considerably higher. Part of the problem in estimating costs is that the war is obviously not over; it just keeps going, and going, and going.

According to a report on the cost of the war in Iraq released last week by the Democratic staff of the House Budget Committee, the war and ongoing insurgency could cost the United States between US$461 billion and $646 billion by 2015, depending on the scope and duration of operations.

The difference between the low and high-end estimates depends on potential costs in 2006 and beyond. The lower figure is based on a US withdrawal of forces within four years, per Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's prediction that all US troops could be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2008. The second estimate reduces US forces to 40,000 by 2010, per a previously released Congressional Budget Office model.

The Budget Committee report estimates are higher than previous estimates for several reasons: the war is lasting longer and is more intense, and the cost to keep US troops in the theater of operations is proving to be greater, than anyone anticipated.

Those estimates are also far higher than anyone had predicted earlier, including Lawrence Lindsey, President George W Bush's former chief economic adviser. In 2002 he predicted that the cost of a war with Iraq could range between $100 billion and $200 billion at best. The administration dismissed the figure, and Lindsey was soon fired.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the global "war on terrorism", after the newest supplement is exhausted, could total about $350 billion over the next 10 years (excluding interest payments on the debt), assuming an eventual phase-down of US activities in Iraq and Afghanistan.

To date, Congress has appropriated $154 billion for the military operations and reconstruction in Iraq. In the upcoming weeks this total will grow after Congress enacts the president's $81.9 billion emergency supplemental appropriation to fund these operations through the rest of fiscal year 2005. This latest supplemental includes $64 billion for Iraq and increases the total cost to the US to more than $200 billion through 2005.

One obvious question when considering costs is why the government has to ask for supplemental appropriates in the first place. Why can't it be put in the annual budget request? According to Chris Preble, director of foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, "There is one good argument for not using Iraq costs for not being in the annual military budget. That is the risk you build in tens or hundreds of billions of dollars that are not applied to Iraq, but applied to somewhere else. However, that concern is completely overwhelmed by the fact that funding for war by supplements really seems to be intended to conceal some of the costs, and to present costs to Congress to be a fait accompli. Congress can't vote against such things without being accused of undermining troops in the field."

According to Chris Hellman, military-policy analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in Washington, DC, "It seems to me you have to ask the fundamental question. I believe if the president went to Congress and said we are going to put it in the top line and we need to fund it, Congress would say 'yes'. So why does the president go the supplement route? To a certain extent it hides the deficit. At least temporarily it distorts the true nature of the deficit."

Another reason, according to Hellman, is that "supplement appropriations are slushy. There is a lack of oversight, which gives a federal agency a lot of discretion. You are talking about $500 billion in total annual spending, of which 20% - the total of the supplement - is unaccounted for. No other agency has discretionary authority of 20% of its budget."

Then there are future costs that have hardly begun to be paid such as disability payments for those who are wounded in the "war on terror".

Larry Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense in the administration of president Ronald Reagan and a senior fellow the Center for American Progress, a liberal think-tank in Washington, DC, said, "You are going to have one in 10 die. That means a 90% survival rate. People forget about the VA [Department of Veterans Affairs] costs that have to be paid."

According to Hellman, "Nobody has made any effort to calculate those costs. One of the sad ironies of our technical proficiency is that our death-to-wounded ratio is completely reversed from previous wars. This could be a substantial burden to taxpayers for 40-50 years."

Then there is the reality that not all the money appropriated for the cost of war in Iraq or Afghanistan actually is spent on those wars. Korb said, "There are things in the supplement which should be in the regular budget, such as converting army brigades and the costs of military transformation, as well as regular operations and maintenance costs, plus odds and ends, like procurement of Black Hawk helicopters. Keeping these costs in the supplement allows the Pentagon to claim that their budget request comes in under last year's budget. But when you include the costs of items in the supplement they are over by about 10 billion."

Korb's claim is confirmed by the documentation provided by the White House. For example, the fact sheet it released about the supplement notes that it "includes $5.3 billion to begin implementing plans to restructure the army and Marine Corps into more flexible, self-sufficient modular units better able to deploy and fight the 'war on terror'."

Aside from the difficulty in tracking costs it is also unclear how well the money is being spent. Last month, Stuart Bowen Jr, special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, released findings that the US occupation authority in Iraq was unable to keep track of the nearly $9 billion it transferred to government ministries, which lacked financial controls, security, communications and adequate staff.

So how much might it cost by the time it is all over? It is impossible to predict with certainty. But Korb estimates that "before it is all over the costs will run to half a trillion dollars".

But in the end the debate over the costs obscures a more fundamental question. "I think at the end of the day, whether they account for costs normally or via supplement, it is incumbent to come to Congress and say whether costs are worth the benefits. The Bush administration can't be left off the hook for their assumption that the war would be reasonably quick and inexpensive," said Preble.

David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the Washington-based British American Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in arms control and national security issues. The views expressed are his own.

Angesichts der drohenden wirtschaftlichen Schwierigkeiten spricht sich Hultberg für einen Einsatz von Gold als Zahlungsmittel in den USA aus:

http://www.321gold.com/editori…tberg/hultberg022805.html

Ned Schmidt über den wachsenden Geldmittelzufluß nach Europa, dem steigenden Goldkurs und der drohenden Rezession durch die Immobilienblase:

http://news.goldseek.com/NedSchmidt/1109604484.php

Freitag, 25. Februar 2005 | 5:49 Uhr

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.value-stocks.com/im…vatars/bruno_bandulet.jpg]
Dr. Bruno Bandulet Dr. Bruno Bandulet
Beruf:
Firma: Bandulet Verlag GmbH
e-Mail: info@bandulet.de
Website: http://www.bandulet.de

Münzen, Barren, Konten: Das 1x1 der Geldanlage

Immer wieder erreichen uns Fragen, vor allem von neuen Lesern, wie, wo und warum man Gold kaufen soll. Eine Zusammenfassung:

(1) Physisches Gold, d.h. Münzen und Barren, sollten Sie nicht in erster Linie mit der Absicht kaufen, spekulative Gewinne zu erzielen. Gold gehört aus anderen Gründen in jedes Portfolio: a) weil die Risikostreuung ein absolutes Muß jeder Anlagepolitik ist – oft steigt der Goldpreis oder bleibt zumindest stabil, wenn Aktien fallen (vgl. 1987, 2001, 2002); b) weil kein Anleger auf Sachwerte verzichten sollte und weil es keinen liquideren, internationaleren und leichter handelbaren Sachwert als Gold gibt; c) weil Big Brother auf diskret erworbenes Gold keinen Zugriff hat – im Gegensatz zu allen Wertpapieren, die elektronisch erfaßt sind und oft nur noch elektronisch existieren; d) weil Gold alle Papierwährung überlebt hat und überleben wird und zuverlässig gegen den Kollaps der eigenen Währung schützt.

(2) Letzteres können wir nicht genug betonen. In jeder großen Währungskrise der Geschichte (vor wenigen Jahren erst in Asien, in Rußland und Argentinien) stürzte die lokale Währung ins Bodenlose, während die lokalen Goldpreise explodierten. Auch als der Euro nach seiner Einführung als Buchgeld im Januar 1999 an den Devisenmärkten sehr schwach war, schlug Gold in DM oder Euro mühelos Festgeld und Anleihen. Wenn eines Tages eine große Euro-Krise kommt, wird es sich lohnen, Gold zu haben. Gold ist eine Versicherung, wobei Sie die Prämie im Gegensatz zu konventionellen Versicherungen auch dann nicht verlieren, wenn Sie sie nicht brauchen.

(3) Nur Barren und Münzen können den Zweck der letzten Sicherheit erfüllen. Nicht hingegen Zertifikate, Optionsscheine und andere Derivate, denn diese unterliegen dem Konkursrisiko der Bank, die sie ausgibt. Solche Papiere sollten deswegen nur zu Spekulationszwecken genutzt werden. Weniger Bedenken haben wir bei Metallkonten einer soliden Bank wie der schweizerischen UBS – kaum vorstellbar, daß sie pleite gehen könnte. Beim Handel auf Metallkonto ist der Spread Geld/Brief erheblich kleiner als beim physischen Kauf. Für Silber und die anderen weißen Metalle würden wir die Metallkonten sogar bevorzugen, weil bei ihnen keine Steuer anfällt. Eine gute Ergänzung zum Direktkauf von Barren und Münzen ist der Fonds Gold Plus der Deutschen Bank mit einer Mischung aus Goldguthaben, Geldanlagen und Absicherungsgeschäften. Rendite in den letzten zwölf Monaten: 8,2%, über drei Jahre: 22,1%. WKN 973246. Goldaktien sind eine Mischung aus Gold- und Aktienanlage mit Hebelwirkung und hier nicht unser Thema.

(4) Numismatische Münzen sind ein schönes Hobby, das durchaus lukrativ sein kann. Wenn Sie dazu keine Zeit und Neigung haben, beschränken Sie sich strikt auf die sogenannten Bullion Coins, die eng dem Goldpreis folgen, und auf Goldbarren. Bevorzugen Sie dabei Münzen wie den Krügerrand oder den kanadischen Maple Leaf mit einer Unze Gold (= 31,1035g) und Barren im Gewicht von 1kg (= rund 32 Unzen). Kleinere Stückelungen sind relativ teuer. Im Kauf kostete ein Krügerrand am 20. Mai bei der UBS 510 Franken, der Maple Leaf 520 Franken. Im Verkauf brachten beide 481 Franken.

(5) Goldmünzen (und bei größeren Konten eventuell auch Barren) sollten Sie über einen längeren Zeitraum möglichst bei Preiskorrekturen akkumulieren. Hierfür empfiehlt sich das Tafelgeschäft, also der Kauf in bar. Vorbildliche Goldgeschäfte mit fairen Preisen und fachkundiger Beratung sind

a) in Frankfurt das Münzkabinett, Große Eschenheimer Str. 9, Tel. 069/27107983, Internet: http://www.muenzkabinett-frankfurt.de. Inhaber ist Dr. Pavol Jurecko, früher Dresdner Bank;

b) in Zürich die Edelmetalle & Münzen AG, Kirchgasse 38, Tel. 01/2510730. Internet: http://www.zpmo.ch. Inhaber ist Rainer Meier, früher Goldhändler bei der UBS.

Ansonsten bekommen Sie Gold oder andere Edelmetalle ohne Vorbestellung und gegen bar meist nur noch in Großstädten, z.B. am Hauptsitz der Hypo-Vereinsbank neben dem Bayerischen Hof in München oder ganz in der Nähe am Hauptsitz der Deutschen Bank oder bei der Kreissparkasse am Sendlinger Torplatz. Siehe dazu auch: G&M-Test: Erfahrungen eines Goldkäufers, G&M, Dezember 2001.

(6) Gängige Goldmünzen und Goldbarren sind in Deutschland und der Schweiz schon seit Jahren steuerfrei, in der Schweiz seit dem 31. Oktober 1986. Die Meldung in der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung vom 16. Mai, wonach auf Gold in der Schweiz 7,6% Mehrwertsteuer entrichtet werden müssen, war eine Zeitungsente. Der Autor, Heinz Brestel, leistete sich vor Jahren schon einmal einen bösen Schnitzer, als er behauptete, daß steigende Goldpreise zu erwarten seien, weil die Terminpreise über den Kassapreisen liegen. (In Wirklichkeit orientiert sich der Aufschlag der Terminpreise hauptsächlich an den Dollar-Zinsen; die Terminpreise für Gold sind unter normalen Umständen immer höher als die Kassapreise.) Die weißen Metalle hingegen unterliegen in beiden Ländern der Mehr-wertsteuer. Nach Ablauf der Spekulationsfrist von einem Jahr bleibt der Kapitalgewinn bei einem Wiederverkauf der Metalle nach deutschem Recht unbesteuert. Um eine andere Leserfrage zu beantworten: daß Gold in Deutschland – abgesehen von Sammlermünzen – von der Steuer befreit wurde, ist Fritz Plass (früher Deutsche Bank) und Werner Knies (früher Degussa) zu verdanken, die dafür mit guten Argumenten und großem Einsatz bei der EU in Brüssel gekämpft haben.

(7) Schließlich zur Frage, wo man sein Gold aufbewahren soll: am besten einen Teil zu Hause, einen Teil in einem Schließfach in der Schweiz oder Liechtenstein und (sofern Sie in Deutschland wohnen) einen Teil auch in einem deutschen Schließfach am Wohnort. Die Schweiz als Lagerort sollte deswegen nicht fehlen, weil Gold dort nie verboten wurde (im Gegensatz zu Deutschland und den USA) und selbst während des Weltkrieges mit Einschränkungen gehandelt werden konnte. In der Schweiz hat man immer noch mehr Respekt vor dem Privateigentum als in der EU! Die Kosten für ein Schließfach sind unerheblich, nur setzt es voraus, daß man bei der betreffenden Bank ein Konto hat. Völlig ungeeignet als Lagerort ist New York. Ganz abgesehen von der Gefahr eines neuen terroristischen Anschlages haben die USA eine lange Tradition der Mißachtung fremden Eigentums, die bis auf den Ersten Weltkrieg zurückgeht.
http://www.value-stocks.com/mo…s/article.php?storyid=124

February 28 – Gold $436.10 up $1.40 – Silver $7.35 up 9 cents

Japan’s "Mr. Gold" Coming to Gold Rush 21 / CRB Going Ballistic

"The individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists." J. Edgar Hoover
GO GATA!

Where do I begin without repeating myself about outrage? What The Gold Cartel continues to do regarding capping the price of gold is beyond blatantly pathetic. Then again, it is suiting. Only the dimwits in the mainstream gold world could watch this price manipulation day after day and say and do nothing. These guys are the biggest bunch of dopey, timid cowards of any industry in the history of the world. Unfortunately, you and I are paying the price for their insufferable ways. Life is going by as we wait for The Gold Cartel to blow up. If the gold industry would deal with the facts of life and get the word out there about what is actually going on and why, these bums would have been forced to capitulate long ago. Yes, the cabal forces are doomed. Yes, the longer the artificial price suppression fraud is in play, the higher the price will go in the end. The only question is whether I will look like Methuselah when their scheme falls apart.

I arrived back from San Diego last evening and because of the time saving decided to call some people in South Africa, Australia, Hong Kong and London about Gold Rush 21, as it was their morning. I watched gold trade $2 higher and silver trade between 10 and 15 cents higher. The silver move up was very unusual for the overseas market. Rarely ever happens.

What a waste of time checking in on the gold and silver markets outside of what the crooks do on Comex. You can throw the technicals and fundamentals out the window in both these markets, as well as what happens in other parts of the world. The bums do whatever they want on the Comex and tell everyone else to go jump in a lake. Without fear of reprisals over this economic fascism type of un-American activity, they will keep at it until they are carried out of this crooked game – yep, that’s it … on GATA stretchers.

And what a joke today was. Gold flat-lined the entire session even though the CRB was up nearly 5 full points and the bonds were battered for nearly a point. The Working Group on Financial Markets made sure the dollar held steady during the commodity/bond market turmoil of the day.

A picture is worth a thousand words as they say. Gold has gone sideways since last Tuesday morning. It is more instructive to watch what the CRB and bond market have done since Tuesday morning and then look at the gold chart. The Gold Cartel’s price-capping routine is plain as day:

April CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/45

March bonds
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/35

April gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/45

March bonds made a new low for the move, tanking 7/8 to 113 3/32. The spot CRB went ballistic, soaring 4.77 to 305 – led by coffee leaping 4.15 cents, a much higher cocoa price, beans lifting 17 ½ cents, and lumber going limit up.

This sort of comment would be too much to ask of the mainstream gold pundits:

Bill, is it me or does the gold chart look funny today?
Its sooo flat.
Brian

The gold open interest rose 4601 contracts to 283,530 as the specs begin to pour into the long side again. Talk about getting jerked around. The Gold Cartel has been picking apart the Black Box tech specs for almost a decade, first fleecing them for $5 to $10 at a crack and now for $10 to $20 at a pop. Like taking candy from a baby. One day we will get our Commercial Signal Failure and it will be a doozie. Just don’t know when.

After the overnight silver surge, the price managers were all over it during the Comex trading session. At one point they took silver all the way back to the unchanged level before it turned around at the close with a burst. Morgan Stanley took some light profits. The silver open interest rose 1603 contracts to 105,222 as the specs are jumping on board here too.

Bought a new laptop from my computer guy after 6 years with my old one to make life easier on the road. Nightmare! I am tech clueless. The computer worked fine, however, the new HTML code stuff is 10 times more cumbersome. I thought I had that solved, however, what I took from my old computer from was not compatible with the new one. Long story. Anyway, it created a few tech problems and different looks for my commentary late last week.

One problem was this paragraph was inadvertently left out of the early edition Friday MIDAS:

"The CRB is overbought, yet remains in rocket ship mode. Should weather problems develop further in Brazil regarding their crops, lookout! The fundamentals for the dollar are also deteriorating on a monthly basis. The US is doing little to correct US fiscal problems, as demanded by our foreign creditors."

Those weather problems did develop.

With what is going on in the commodity world, the price of gold and silver should be flying, which is exactly the reason The Gold Cartel is capping the price. You see it would not be proper to have Mr. Greenspin look like a fool:

``The economy seems to have entered 2005 expanding at a reasonably good pace, with inflation and inflation expectations well anchored,'' the Fed chairman said in the text of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on February 16.

The John Brimelow Report

Bears fight on, but Gartman sees new highs

Monday, February 28, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums : AM $5.34, PM $5.76, with world gold at $436.60 and $436.35. Marginal, and adequate, for legal imports. The Indian Budget appears to have passed off with little influence on gold; no change in duties and a friendly gesture in the form of encouraging gold mutual fund ETFs in the country, which will doubtless go nowhere. An effort is apparently going to be made to inject funds into the countryside; this will stimulate gold demand. Even the discreet World Gold Council admits that much Tsunami relief money was spent on gold – and that was the money that actually reached the victims! See http://www.businessstandard.co…&chklogin=N&autono=181816

Today the Central Bank intervened heavily to hold down the rupee. The stock market closed up 2.19%, at an all time high: the pattern of foreigners buying Indian paper and Indians buying foreign gold will likely continue.

Gold opened on an upswing in Asia this morning. Some spoke of heavy ACCESS buying, but the reported volume does not support that. Neither did TOCOM: on volume equal to 29,670 Comex lots (+16%) open interest slipped the equivalent of 130 Comex; the active contract was up 6 yen, while world gold was up $1.60. Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums, for what they are worth, have risen back to the $2.53 - $2.71 level seen before the lunar NY holiday. (NY on Friday traded 45,473 contracts; open interest jumped 4,601 lots – 14.3 tonnes!)

The open interest data support what was obvious on Friday: an effort to rally gold ran into powerful selling. ScotiaMocatta is unusually candid:

"Selling from overseas sources forced gold to a low of 432.50/433.00 where funds stepped in to provide support. The funds remained on the bid throughout the session helping to lift the price higher. It appeared that New York dealers had scale up sell orders…"

As, it would appear, they do today.

From the Bear’s point of view, this is just as well, as the CFTC data suggests they are not well positioned. UBS observes:

"the net-long gold position increased by 2.6million ounces to 10.87Moz. We were slightly surprises that the move was more attributable to new longs rather than covering shorts; gross longs increased by 1.72moz to 18.5Moz while gross shorts fell by only 0.85Moz to a still-elevated 7.62moz. In light of the change in open interest since last Tuesday and the further increase in the gold price we suspect that again a mixture of fresh longs and covering shorts has driven the market higher, although there are probably still some vulnerable shorts that may be forced to cover if we break higher in gold."

However, it appears they can call on friends.

These do not appear to include the Hedge fund circles in which The Gartman Letter moves: Gartman for the first time sets a target today: "It is indeed a bull market in gold and in gold shares. Early last week, Barrick "gapped" higher once again, and continues he process of higher highs and higher lows. We look for new highs, taking out the highs of late last year before running into resistance once again…the trend for the gold market is higher, and we suspect that new highs, well above those made last December, are likely. We can say little more; nor need we."
(JB emphasis)

Manifestly, there is a large seller present, but equally clearly he has work to do.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market bent, but did not break, like always. The DOW fell 75 to 10,766 and the DOG lost 14 to 2052.

Higher interest rates and higher costs are going to stifle corporate profits this year. Throw the horror show in Iraq and the lack of US fiscal discipline on top of that and you have a recipe for a stock market debacle.

Some back and forth banter between Enrico Orlandini, who is quite good, and me this afternoon:

Gold closes at 1:30 pm. At 1:20 the dollar was rallying and even the DJIA was gaining some ground. Gold is contained and closed up 1.40 and then the dollar begins to fall again and the Dow makes a new low. This happens quite a bit and I wonder if anyone notices. Certainly the SEC doesn't.
EBO

I responded in the affirmative and he came back with:

Okay. Aside from you and I. Besides, I think they're taking it to new levels.

Years ago, all the great traders would tell you that intervention can't last. Maybe a month or two at the most. Over the long run the market will win out. The problem is that they never went up against someone who only had to use a printing press to cover a margin call, if in fact they even get one. I firmly believe the market will win out, but very few gold bulls will have any capital left to profit by the collapse. Very sad state of affairs indeed.
EBO

US Economic News:

08:30 Jan.Personal Income reported (2.3%) vs. consensus (2.6%); Spending 0.0% vs. consensus 0.1%; Deflator reported 2.2% vs. consensus 2.2%
Prior Income reading unrevised at 3.7%; Spending unrevised at 0.8%.
* * * * *

05:11 Qatar's oil minister says that OPEC isn't likely to raise oil output when it meets 3/16
The minister said it is more likely that OPEC will cut supply to keep inventories from building. Next OPEC meeting is scheduled for 3/16 in Isfahan, Iran.
* * * * *

05:45 Iran official says OPEC has "less interest" in cutting output due to high prices -- Reuters
OPEC's acting Sec-Gen expects OECD oil stocks to remain around 51-52 days of forward cover, and notes a consensus is building towards valuing $40-$50 oil as a stable range. April WTI crude has declined slightly to $51.94 from above $52 in reaction to the recent headlines.
* * * * *

09:59 Chicago Purchasing Manager's reported 62.7, according to Reuters
Consensus is 60.5.
* * * * *

10:00 Jan New Home Sales reported 1.106M vs. consensus 1.125M
Prior revised to 1.218M from 1.098. Homebuilders move lower in initial reaction.
* * * * *

09:24 Deutsche Bank sees gasoline inventory data overstated by a possible 8M-9M bbls
The company cites this past Friday's downward revision by the DOE to the gasoline inventory number by 4M barrels. Says the DOE is still trying to uncover discrepanies in reporting that may be double accounting inventories. The firm believes that the current reported inventory of 223M could be overstated by 8-9M barrels, bringing the level back from 3 year highs to the mid-point of the 3 year range.
* * * * *

11:10 FMC announces price increase for sodium perborate
Effective 4/1. FMC is increasing list and off-list prices for Sodium Perborateby $0.10/lb. Increase covers all grades, including monohydrate andtetrahydrate, and is necessary to offset raw material, energy andtransportation costs, as well as forex.
* * * * *

Iraq is more than a mess:

Suicide Bomb Kills 115 Near Iraq Marketplace
By Haider Abbas
Reuters

HILLA, Iraq - A suicide bomber detonated a car near a crowded marketplace south of Baghdad Monday, killing 115 people and wounding 148 in the single bloodiest attack in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein.

The bomber rammed the car into a crowd of people queuing for government jobs outside a health center in the town of Hilla, 100 km (62 miles) south of the capital. Many of those killed were shopping at stalls across the road and caught in the blast…

-END-

But, there is no inflation:

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Monday Feb. 28, 2005 – Issue 3106 "Independent View of the News"

It’s 1979 for the markets. We are back to 1978-1979. The legacy of Volcker and Reagan has already been spent and forgotten. But, "The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes." -- Mark Twain

The markets now expect inflation – somewhere, in some asset class or classes. Last week the markets were pricing in new inflationary expectations. With oil soaring anew and industrial commodities indices at all-time highs, soybeans and other ‘softs’ or food commodities started to price in higher inflation.

Merrill’s chief strategist (Bernstein) noted the markets’ inflation proclivities on CNBC last Friday. He emphasized that both oil and chip stocks are stellar performers because oil and chips are commodities.

But chip prices are in descent!? The markets, especially specs, realize that the Fed is reluctant to put fed funds at a neutral rate (debt deflation fear). So they are back to ‘cash is trash’, AKA rank speculation.

Loan demand, especially speculative real estate loans, is accelerating and financial institutions are incurring increasing risk at low rates. The Chicago Trib notes speculators are flocking to real estate. Nationally, 9% of all sales are spec buyers… Some financial institutions, like FNM, have to raise capital to keep capital to assets ratios in-line. Regulators are warning that risks and capital is near a danger point.

The lesson of the ‘70s and inflation in general, is that inflation is an insidious financial and economic disease that commences with wonderfully beneficial effects on the economy and asset markets. The markets and people, like the US Fed’s Easy Al and Bernanke, initially welcome inflation’s ‘benefits’.

But slowly, almost imperceptibly, inflation inexorably increases. People are unconcerned; many welcome the increasing inflation in the misguided belief that even more wonderful benefits will accrue. Then suddenly inflation becomes entrenched and inflationary expectations escalate until they increase at a parabolic rate. That is the lesson of gold and silver in 1978-1979. Their charts show the slow, meager gains of the seventies going parabolic in not much more than a year.

The Fed and US solons have been clear that they intend to inflate away the US debt problem. Some pundits have asserted that there is too much debt, so the markets will thwart Fed attempts to inflate. However, that logic has been usurped by wise guys and the greatest central bank intervention in history. Bonds have rallied instead of declining due to these players. If ‘bond vigilantees’ aren’t dead, they are at least catatonic. The concept of ‘freely traded markets’ has been completely and thoroughly debunked.

The odds now favor the ‘flame out’ that we warned about last year. However that warning was about China affecting a ‘flame out’ on the global economy. Now it looks like we will have some kind of speculative flame out, perhaps in housing or energy. The one thing that looks highly probable to us is that gold and then silver will be the last vessel in the speculation. When the precious metals go postal, the beginning of the end has occurred because it implies central banks have lost control of ‘the game’.

"Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results." -- Machiavelli

-END-

Now playing at Jesse's Charts: Gathering Storm: A Whiff of Fear

http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse

***

The stories on the REAL financial scene re the dollar are FINALLY picking up steam around the world:

Why George Bush should heed Asia's central bankers

FT
By Chris Giles
Published: February 26 2005 02:00 | Last updated: February 26 2005 02:00

Remember these names. Toshihiko Fukui. Zhou Xiaochuan. Perng Fai-Nan. Park Seung. Joseph Yam. And Yaga Venugopal Reddy. They are the central bank governors of Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and India respectively. They are also arguably more important for US monetary policy than Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, or his successor who will take on the role next year.

The argument is not as outlandish as it might seem. Consider some evidence: When Mr Greenspan said the US trade deficit was "increasingly less tenable" last November, financial markets took fright. The Dow Jones Industrial index fell 115 points and the dollar fell by 0.4 per cent against the euro on foreign exchange markets…

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/06037…d9-ab48-00000e2511c8.html

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Disgust from the real Conservative camp in the US:

"The time has come for those we Republicans have elected to high office either to fish or to cut bait, either to decide they are conservatives or Democrat-like moderates, either to cut the size and expense of government or enlarge them, either to butt out of our lives or muscle government's way farther in, in short either to act like Republicans or admit that all this time they've been lying to us. ... Pushing for tax cuts is important but it's not enough. Endorsing a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage (it will never pass) is merely a sop thrown to cultural conservatives. Naming conservative judges is a step in the right direction but one cannot expect them to halt the advance of big government or block actions that affect national sovereignty. Already this year we have seen the House pass legislation that in effect, establishes a national ID card, which is one way for Big Brother to keep track of you and me. Regardless of what you call it, the president continues to push for legislation that will legitimize the presence in this country of more than 10 million illegal aliens. Likewise, he's pushing legislation to increase greatly the federal government's role in public education. ... Far from balancing the budget all he's promised is to cut the size of the annual deficit. Well, hooray! ... Now we are hearing talk that Social Security reform really means another increase in social security taxes.

The Republican Party, once the party of small government, states rights, individual responsibility and, if you will, America first, is slowly coming to love Big Brother and big government and wanting to be loved internationally at the expense of American sovereignty. ... Anyone who thinks this is still the party of Ronald Reagan should think again." --Lyn Nofziger, former White House Press Secretary.

A GATA supporter is having his own conference:

The Financial Vortex conference on March 19, 2005.

Event Details:
Financial Vortex
Growing & Protecting your Wealth
During the Coming Unavoidable Financial Storms

Your money, career & retirement goals are at great risk! What will you do when economic & financial storms swirl around and hurl devastation at you and your family? It is now becoming clear (even to Washington) that massive problems are facing our economy and that millions could be blind-sided by multiple gathering storms that are at this point unstoppable! Just think about what is facing you and I and so many of our loved ones in the coming months and years…

http://www.mollyguard.com/event/15170375

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Tom Allen of http://www.HoweStreet.com has some interviews up from the Joe Martin’s Vancouver gold conference last month at http://www.FinancialBroadcastNetwork.com, including a short one of mine.

This Reuters story late Friday really struck me re the paragraph in large bold:

From Reuters
Friday, February 25, 2005

FRANKFURT -- A majority of Group of Seven members favour selling some of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves to finance debt relief, a German newspaper on Friday reported G7 sources as saying.

But an outright sale from the IMF, the world's third largest gold holder, is not the only option under consideration, according to the Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) article.

Options could include a sale to an interested central bank or a revaluation of IMF gold reserves to current market prices, which would generate a paper profit that could be used to offset losses from debt write-off, it said.

The issue of more debt relief for impoverished countries is at the centre of global economic discussions after G7 finance ministers earlier in February agreed to tackle the problem of funding debt relief at their IMF spring meetings in April.

The agreement came after prompting from British finance minister Gordon Brown, whose country currently chairs meetings of the G7, the world's major developed countries.

While rich countries have agreed that more debt relief is necessary, they are divided on how it should be done. Gold producers and some U.S. lawmakers have said they will oppose the sale of the IMF's gold, and would prefer an off-market transaction that does not disrupt bullion markets.

IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said on Wednesday the IMF was studying all proposals, including the revaluation or sale of the IMF's gold stocks.

According to the FTD, IMF sources say the fund is sceptical of using gold for debt relief but is aware that it will be a political decision so is focusing on the technical aspects.

Additionally, the G7 would not want to disrupt the gold market, it quoted sources as saying. If the IMF decides on sales, then those sales could count towards quotas allocated under the International Gold Agreement, the FTD said.

Fifteen European central banks signed the second gold agreement, limiting total sales to 2,500 tonnes over five years ending in 2009.

–END-

Why:

*First Germany drops out of the second Washington Agreement in dramatic fashion, wiping out a dearly needed supply of gold for The Gold Cartel.

* Soon after, England’s Brown starts yapping about selling IMF gold again to help the poor – a charade if their ever was one.

*Then, they float some talk about the Chinese taking the gold.

*Now, THIS! They must be VERY DESPERATE even to let that out in writing in any form.