Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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March 26 - Gold $422.10 up $5.40 - Silver $7.71 up 13 cents

California Dreamin’

Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival...Winston Churchill

GO GATA!!!!

Back from my nieces' tennis matches at UC San Diego in La Jolla. California traffic is horrendous, especially on a Friday afternoon.

What a morning! Gold exploded with the April Comex option expiry out of the way. Due $1.70 higher, it rocketed right out of the gate, climbing $6.90 higher before the gold police showed up to corral it from going any further. There is that $6 rule again. Talk about a broken record. It is like dealing with the “Do Not Pass Go” sign in Monopoly. In this case it is The Gold Cartel’s monopoly on the gold trading pattern. Somebody send those bums to jail.

Word is famous commodity trader John Henry bought 10,000 gold contracts on the OTC market yesterday morning. In years past the cabal has been able to shake them out. Times are a changin’. They tried again yesterday and failed. Early attempts also failed today.

As we all know, the gold move has been DRAMATIC the past two weeks. What makes it even more so is the euro is near its lows on this recent setback, while gold is not far from 15-year highs. While few like to hear, "I told you so!" I am going to do so since this ole fart is celebrating his 58th birthday with my family. Gold is moving up sharply, independent of the dollar, which is just as it should happen and what we wanted to happen. Gold is soaring around the world in terms of other currencies. All those out there who only pointed to a collapsing dollar as the sole reason gold would go up have been dead wrong. That is just about all we heard from all the pundits these past many months. The kid here and Mahendra got it right. Those are the facts. Enough of the chest thumping. However, I sure do love having a big smile on my face these days – better than all those frowns on my physiognomy for so many years!!

Many market participants seem perplexed by the gold market's strength. Café members are not. While gold was below $400, it was brought to your attention that the Chinese and Saudis were going after bullion, and gone after it they have! In addition, gold and silver are going through a structural change in that new big money speculators want in to make the precious metals their investments of choice. This is what the ebullient market action is telling us.

Some other key points to note for the day:

*Gold rose sharply even as commodity prices tanked for the second day in a row. The CRB has sunk more than 8 points in only two trading sessions.

*Gold closed around 349.5 in euros, which is a NEW 15-year high. Fantastic!

*The gold open interest rose another 3127 contracts to 283,020. Only the aggressive selling by The Gold Cartel has held gold back from taking out 15-year highs in dollar terms

*Gold’s weekly close was the second highest in 15 years, only topped by the one on the second week of January, 2004.

As far as silver goes, word has it the Russians sold 2.5 million ounces on the London Fix putting pressure on the price. While gold was due higher pre-Comex, silver was due five lower. However, gold's dramatic early move sent silver into a tizzy as it rallied 17 cents on the day before selling off.

There was only one silver delivery and it wasn’t directed my way. Unreal – I have been standing for a March silver contract for one month and I stilldon’t have it! We are now down to the last day possible for the shorts to give it to me, which is Monday. I expected to receive notice of delivery weeks ago. And people wonder why the silver price is going up.

The silver open interest rose 535 contracts to 119,970, a new high for the bull market move. March dropped 12 contracts to 236.

Strangely, word keeps coming back to me that the silver traders in New York keep telling everyone there is plenty of silver around. Why doesn’t someone ask them, "If that is so, then why is the silver price soaring?"

Perhaps the Russians will supply the silver market and meet the soaring short-term demand. However, that is all it will do, temporarily delaying the price increase. This new demand is going to intensify as the year goes on. The shorts are in deep, deep trouble.

Silver made yet another weekly high close. Somewhere in the days and weeks ahead it is going to go bonkers.

How many times over the past couple of years have we seen gold soar in the early Comex trading only to be stopped cold the rest of the session by cabal forces? Unlike normal free markets, it never surges, sets back and then surges again. The gold trading action this week suggests "the day" is coming in the near future when this tactic is going to fail, and the bums are going to be blown out of the water as they are overpowered by world-wide gold demand. Gold is going up on its own without the help of outside markets. What do you think the gold price is going to do when the dollar resumes its inevitable downtrend, when the US stock market heads for the toilet, or when the heinous terrorists strike in dramatic fashion again? This is not a market to be short!

The John Brimelow Report
Concerning irresistible forces and

Friday, March 26, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.14, PM $3.76, with world gold at $416.75 and $417.30. Below legal import point. The rupee made a sizable (for the rupee) move today, jumping 0.6% to $1 =R44.47. This will tend to underpin gold import appetite on any retracement of world gold.

While $US gold actually edged higher during Japanese hours, going out 25c above the NY close, TOCOM exhibited no interest. Volume slumped 33% to the equivalent of only 14,520 Comex lots, and open interest fell the equivalent of 555 Comex lots. Some commentators assume the Japanese are participants in the recent excitement: the evidence suggests not. Neither is the Shanghai Gold Exchange: prices moved back to a narrow discount today. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 102,000 lots, of which 15,053 were switches.)

Any doubt that the key force in gold right now is an enormous actor in the Western hemisphere was surely settled by the explosion on the NY open, clearly aimed at technical points: up almost $7 within a few moments; an immense 50,000 contracts estimated to have traded by 10 am.

The problem, of course, is that there seems to be an equally determined seller, operating through the usual bullion banks. As ScotiaMocatta says of yesterday:

"Sellers appeared shortly after the New York open forcing the price from 417.00/417.50 to the days low of 415.10/415.60. New York dealers were the noted sellers convincing locals to go along for the ride. However, commission houses took advantage of this, bidding the market back up. Locals were forced to cover their short positions."

UBS reports that

"A total of 5000 efps were posted yesterday, indicating that a Comex-trading speculators bought around 500koz of gold during European trading yesterday, explaining why the metal remained firm in spite of the weakness of the euro."

and suggests that the large spec long is now back over 18 million ozs (the high in January was 19.3 million). This means a 5 million oz build up in less than two weeks!

In fact the volumes traded on Comex in the past 7 days appear to be as high as anything in the Exchange history, except for the end of January period. Then, it will be remembered, gold was pushed back under $400 and a large volume of longs forced to liquidate; short sellers were drawn in and a powerful rally occurred on Feb 6th.

Obviously, considering how recent this event is, whoever is on the buy side now cannot not know that advances on new high territory on gold bring out this ferocious selling. The question is, is their evaluation of what they are up against correct?

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW and DOG both closed slightly lower after yesterday’s dramatic rally from an oversold condition.

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending rose 0.2 percent in February, the smallest gain since October, as purchases of automobiles and other durable goods slowed, a government report showed.
The increase was half as much as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had forecast and followed a 0.5 percent gain in January that was larger than first estimated, the Commerce Department reported in Washington. Incomes climbed 0.4 percent following a 0.3 percent increase in January.
Consumer spending ``isn't driving the acceleration of the economy, but it's still shaping up to be pretty solid in the first quarter,'' said James Glassman, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York. ``As the expansion broadens to include hiring, that is going to provided ongoing support or the consumer.''

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:
A quick update on the DIVG shows its 200-Day ma still powering higher along with the Euro Index Value of Gold (EIVG).

The previous 15 year highs for these absolute value metrics are 425 for the EIVG and 362.69 for the DIVG. This evening they stand at 416 and 359.75 respectively.

Even though the previous highs haven't been breached yet the real battle line at the DIVG 200-day ma has already been lost to the gold bugs as they gold cartel retreats upward...in a futile search for yet another defense line.

President Bush may crow and joke around at dinner parties about not finding WMDs in Iraq, but there's no joke regarding the unmistakable threat to US financial stability emanating from the precious metals markets.

THAT is the real war...and GATA is leading the charge.

Mike

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More from Mike:
Hi Bill:
The Fed added $9.75 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today March 26th 2004, an action that caused the repo pool to keep inching up to $32.33 Billion and also kept the upwards pressure on the DOW futures market. At this hour (12 Noon) the DOW is moving up through 10,255 to what appears to be a good day.

It is easy to be seduced by the DOW crash theorists but we live in an interventional world where government paper rules the markets and the Fed has shown its desire to print enough to keep the DOW moving up. We are still on track with a rising DOW as the Fed displays its main diversionary vehicle. It is a red herring...a ruse by an institution in deep trouble.

Even as they imagine they are still in control of everything financial, the Fed is losing the overall battle in its most crucial theater...precious metals and especially silver. These indicators inflation are the sine quo non of inflation and silver has traded as high as $7.75 today. Indeed, the LBMA still has not reported its February volume figures at this hour, how bad must the numbers be?
Mike

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Hey Bill:
A couple of quick comments on the open interest and Commitments Data for gold as I am pressed for time today as it is Snout count day for the hogs.

The commercial category pretty much absorbed the entire amount of fund long buying. Commercial longs bailed out and sold while the cartel piled on an obscene amount of further short positions to sit on the rally. We are now approaching the levels in both camps that we saw back near $430 in January once again.

What I found very strange is the sizeable increase in the fund short category; some 6200 new shorts. That one really has me scratching my head. They are only about 1200 contracts shy of their largest short position for the last year. Funds are typically black box players and are of the momentum type. As a general rule they tend to buy strength and sell weakness. I am not sure what these particular short funds are looking at since every technical indicator has switched over to the buy side and is showing strength. Could be they are attempting to play the cartel's game and piggyback on their selling hoping to ride a potential spec flush down. Regardless, they sold to the small specs who bought in by a three to one margin. Since the data is only good through Tuesday of this week, it is difficult to say whether any of them have covered yet but since open interest is now more than 5000 contracts higher than the Commitments data, it is unlikely. If they did cover, the cartel no doubt was there to meet them and take their place.

One thing is for absolute certain. Without the selling of the bullion banks, gold would have easily moved above the $430 level and garnered an immense amount of new buying. It is these white collar criminals who still refuse to go away who are the ONLY REASON gold does not explode right here and now. I know all of us are waiting for the day they get what is coming to them in that pit. A pox on the whole lot of them.
Best,
Dan

But, there is no inflation:

Hey Bill;
I run a manufacturing plant and thought you might like to know that when my steel suppliers quote us prices they are only holding their prices for 48 hours and tungsten and molybdenum prices are only good for 24 hours.
And we don't have any inflation!
Best Regards
Peter Sanborn
Barnstead, NH

New York Fed Accounts Activity:

Bill,
As you know, I have been tracking the NY Fed's market activities closely for some time.

For the weekly period ending March 25, the NY Fed's Custodial Accounts showed a weekly net outflow of about 1.6 billion dollars.

This is the first outflow since October, 2003. Recently the Accounts have been adding about 1.6 billion dollars per business DAY.

Perhaps Japan is serious when they say their support for the dollar is going to change.
Jesse

View of the day from Australia:

Bill
Coupla observations.

CDE bounced off uptrand support in the $6.30's and looks really like its getting set to go and challenge $7.50 again.

But the really story I think is Fannie Mae, which didn't participate in yesterday's rally at all, and has broken solidly through its uptrend that it established last August. Could this be the start of the blow-up?

Nem looks great but Agnico Eagle and Golden Star didn't participate in todays rally at all??

General market wise, the US close was pretty ugly eh and how is Jim Sinclairs commentary? That's downright scary.

I am trading a little silver/gold and currencies, but getting a "large-ish" position on almost impossible due to the volatility, which anyone with capital preservation in mind keeps gets stopped out in an instant, and the sudden plunges mean that I am sitting mostly on the sidelines simply in awe of how some wrong-footed currency traders and hedge funds must be in diabolical trouble right now due to the size and power of the latest moves.

Hope you are well.
Regards,
Rob O.

Some news from Samex Mining, my second largest holding. You can check it out at their web site:

http://www.samex.com/news/aa-news-2004/NR1-Mar25-04.html

In essence they have renamed their El Zorro project in Chile to Los Zorros. They have done so to better reflect their finding five potential gold/silver deposits of size all in one zone. The potential is extraordinary. Drilling will commence sometime this spring. If they hit on just one of the five targets, we have a winner. This is the reason I loaded my boat with Samex shares.

The gold shares have gone into a disconnect with gold. It’s as if the share folks are trading them with the euro. Either that, or they cannot believe gold will stay at these prices, so why buy?

Something to think about which will give you some idea of what is to come with the shares: A savvy gold fund manager knows a very successful retail stock broker who handles the accounts of 336 families (more than one account per family). Only five of those families have any gold stocks in their accounts and most of it is Newmont. In the years to come 85% or more will have gold stocks in their accounts.

Signing off from sunny California, dreamin' of the days we have coming our way.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

From Jessie:

Two Thoughts
* Consider the implications for the US notes and the dollar.
* China still not as 'free market oriented' as people like to imagine. At some point they may cut off western investors at the knees if it suits them.

Sakakibara Says Dollar May Fall Below 100 Yen

2004-03-26 04:44 (New York)

By Mayumi Otsuma and Tatsuo Ito

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may strengthen beyond 100 to the dollar as Japan's economy grows faster than anticipated, said Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan's top currency official. ``It's unavoidable that the yen will keep strengthening toward 100 per dollar,'' Sakakibara, now a professor at Keio University, said in an interview in his office in Tokyo. ``It's possible the currency will be stronger than 100 yen temporarily.'',

The Japanese government won't allow the yen to be stronger than 105 yen per dollar at the fiscal year-end of March 31, when companies close their books, said Sakakibara, known as ``Mr. Yen'' when he directed Japan's foreign-exchange policy from 1997 to 1999 at the Ministry of Finance.

The yen rose to its highest in five weeks in Asia today after government reports showed economic growth in Japan is boosting consumer spending, which may lure more overseas investment into the world's second-largest economy.

The yen headed for its third week of gains as a government report showed household spending in February rose by the most since 1982. Reports yesterday showed overseas investors bought a record amount of stocks last week and Japan's trade surplus widened.

The Japanese currency traded at 105.65 yen per dollar as of 5:36 p.m. in Tokyo, according to EBS prices, from 106.19 late yesterday in New York.

Sakakibara said major Japanese companies are becoming resilient to the yen's gains, and the yen at around 100 per dollar ``won't have much negative impact on the economy.''

He said a stronger yen is good news for companies that are struggling with rising prices of imported materials.

The yen has been gaining against the dollar because a recent recovery of the Japanese economy is ``a surprise'' to foreign investors who have been ``extremely pessimistic,'' Sakakibara said. They are increasing investment in Japan, particularly in the stock market, which has strengthened the yen, he added.

`Exit' from Yen Sales

Japan's monetary authorities are starting to ``exit'' from their ``massive intervention'' policy, and they will sell the currency only to slow rapid gains, rather than to weaken it, he said.

``It's obvious to everyone that massive intervention can't be continued, and such actions shouldn't be continued,'' Sakakibara said. ``Considering relations with other countries, it's very difficult to conduct intervention.''

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan this month said Japan may have to scale back its yen sales as its economy picks up.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said this month that ``no one has devalued their way to prosperity,'' indicating that the U.S. opposes currency selling by several Asian nations.

Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven nations won't make the issue of foreign exchange rates a big topic when they will meet in Washington next month, Sakakibara said. They probably will use ``neutral language'' in a statement and say that it's necessary to closely monitor the currency market movements, he added.

Chinese Yuan

Sakakibara also said China's monetary authorities told him this week that the country won't change its peg to the dollar as long as investors hold a large amount of yuan to take advantage of such a change.

``Chinese authorities know financial markets very well, and they said they won't take any action that will reward speculators,'' Sakakibara said, declining to identify the people he spoke to. ``It can never be possible for monetary authorities to move when speculation is rising.''

China ``probably considers making a shift in a four- to five- year period,'' Sakakibara said. ``There is no doubt that they aim at the year of around 2007.''

Sakakibara visited China for three days this week and met Chinese officials including Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank.

China has pegged the yuan to the dollar since 1994 and valued it at about 8.3 to the dollar since 1995.

China has come under pressure to move to a more flexible currency policy from the U.S., Europe and Japan, which say the peg artificially cheapens China's exports, stoking trade deficits and job losses.

--Editors: Wellisz.

-END-

PAUL B. FARRELL

Next crash? Sorry, you won't hear it coming
Unpredictable external events will collapse market in 2004

By Paul B. Farrell, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:57 PM ET March 24, 2004

LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- Back on March 20, 2000, just before the Nasdaq peaked, I wrote column titled "Next crash? Sorry, you won't hear it coming." You didn't have to be a psychic to know the crash was coming ... and yet people didn't listen.

Yes, some Americans did hear the crash coming. The signals were unavoidable. For example, the astronomic price/earnings ratios, like those no-earnings Nasdaq heroes with 100 percent annual growth. But nobody wanted the party to end. So nobody listened then ... and nobody is listening now.

The new science of investor psychology, behavioral finance, tells us why: Investors tend to minimize or totally deny bad news, like a coming crash. We have an "optimism bias," with a mental valve in our brains that actually filters bad news out of our ears.

Listen closely: The next crash is coming ... it is coming!

I'll bet your filter's working. I could almost hear you call me a nut!

Notice, I'm not referring to the current mini-correction because technical indicators suggest the bull should snap back soon. Also, I don't need any psychic powers. And I don't even need to use any psychological analysis or behavioral finance research.

I do know I was on target in 2000, before the market crashed and moved into a long bear market, a loss of $8 trillion. And I'm sticking my neck out again.

Read my lips: The next crash is coming, and it could kill your retirement if you don't start planning ahead now.

Signs point to trouble

I admit I don't want to believe it. But the warning signs are all over, in spite of the pep talks we're hearing from the Fed chairman and the administration.

This time the reasons for the crash scenario are not internal to the structure of America's stock market, although the federal and Medicare deficits increase our long-term vulnerability. That's crucial to understanding the prediction: You can analyze the domestic economy, interest rates and markets all you want -- it won't matter.

Why? Because the reasons are external. Remember, shortly after 9/11 both Donald Rumsfeld and Warren Buffett publicly said that the question is not if we are going to have more attacks on U.S. soil, but when. That may not be news, but it is clear Americans are in denial about this truth, and that denial, unfortunately, will set you up for failure in your personal finance.

As a result of the Afghan and Iraq wars the global political landscape has become more destabilized than before. The Israeli roadmap for peace has collapsed. The Pakistani offensive against al-Qaida now looks like a farce. And the post-Madrid television warnings from bin Ladin's mastermind al-Zawahiri that "death brigades" are 90 percent in place to carry out new terrorists' attacks inside America's borders have an ominous promissory ring to them, as did the warnings of the blind cleric during his trial after the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.

So the "when" we heard from Buffett and Rumsfeld appears much closer on our radar than a few years ago. Indeed, the current 9/11 hearings reveal an inept government intelligence system that can easily be outwitted by determined terrorists armed with low-tech weapons focusing on new and unsuspecting targets.

Moreover, the Madrid bombing and subsequent threats telegraph the likely timing of the next attacks. The enemy is clever at changing tactics, to mislead us. Not planes nor trains, but a different venue next time. Madrid taught the terrorists that they can influence elections. The likely timing will coincide with a significant political event this year: The Fourth of July, a political convention, the 9/11 anniversary or the November presidential election.

Bears will have their day

This forecast was already well formed although unarticulated when I read in Barron's: "We are coming into one of the worse bear market in history." The prediction was made by Richard Russell, the highly respected publisher of the Dow Theory Letters. He has a solid track record predicting market turns since he launched his newsletter in 1958.

His dark omen reminds me of similar warnings from super-bears like Robert Prechter, the long-time publisher of the Elliot Wave Theorist. Prechter has also been sounding the alarm in recent months, reinforcing Russell predictions.

Prechter's solutions are drastic. In an earlier newsletter he offered many radical 'Bear Market Strategies:' Get out of stocks and funds and park all your money in Treasuries and money markets. Cash out insurance policies and stop looking at your home as an investment because that market's bubble will burst.

While I dismissed Russell and Prechter earlier, today the contrarian in me (the one discounting all the hype about the economy and market) is telling me to pay a lot more attention to them, telling me that unpredictable events can easily erase all our domestic successes in a flash.

Long-term I'm still an optimist: "Betting against America was a bad bet in the past. It'll be a bad bet in the future," said Peter Lynch shortly after the 9/11 attacks: "In the last 50 years we have had many periods of economic prosperity and many periods of uncertainty. Despite nine recessions, three wars, two Presidents shot (one died and one survived), one President resigned, one impeached, and the Cuban Missile crisis ... stocks have been a great place to be."

This time it is different. A couple quick wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? No, we are already mired in World War III, a global cultural war that has been accelerating for over a decade, and we must fight enemies who have made it clear in no uncertain terms that they will be trying to kill us and our way of life for generations.

So please, listen closely: "Next crash? You won't hear it coming." Or will you?

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Bognair's Arbeit, und seine weitsichtigen Gold und Silber Chart Analysen finden weltweit immer mehr Beachtung!

http://news.goldseek.com/EastB…tiveInvest/1080075580.php

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http://news.silverseek.com/COT/1080334157.php

COT Silver Report - March 26, 2004

Silver Cot Report - Futures

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Silver Cot Report - Futures & Options Combined

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Chamberland.US

It's The Depression, Moron...

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Alan Greenspan- The next great depression gets named after him.

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http://www.2theadvocate.com/st…32504/bus_crisis001.shtml

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La. oil executives warn of national energy crisis

By CHRIS GAUTREAU
cgautreau@theadvocate.com
Advocate business writer

Louisiana oil executives on Wednesday raised the specter of a looming national energy crisis, warning that soaring prices and dwindling reserves pose serious risks to the nation's economy.
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DABCHICK's GOLD INDEX

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Dabchick's Gold Index

This index is intended to show how gold is valued throughout the world independently of the value of any country's individual currency. It is not really much use as a day-to-day indicator when currencies are stable relative to one another, and is best plotted as a monthly chart.
The 18-year decline seen in the index from its start in 1982 appears to have come to an end in 1999 with the sharp upward movement at the time of the Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG). Let us hope the WAG marked the beginning of a climb of similar duration.

The Dabchick Gold Index is calculated each day using this formula : A x B / 452 where :

A = Today's Gold price in US Dollars
B = Today's Bank of England Effective Exchange Rate Index ( ERI ) for the US Dollar
452 = a constant which contains the values of A & B in Jan 1982 and also makes allowance for the rebasing of the ERI from 1973 to 1990 conditions in 1995

Calculation of Rebasing Constant ( 452 )
{ ( $ Gold Price Jan 82 ) x ( $ ERI Jan 82 [basis 1973] ) }
divided by

Adjustment factor when BoE rebased the ERI to 1990 in 1995
equals................. { ( $ 386 ) x ( 1.10 ) } / 0.94
equals .................424.6 / 0.94
equals..................452

January 1982 was chosen as the starting point because gold seemed to have settled down quite well by then after the excesses of 1979 - 1981.

The Index was 100.00 on 1st Jan 1982

Regards...........Dabchick

Gold-Eagle Gold Fund Index

Dieser Gold Index ist eher wenigen Leuten bekannt, er ist meiner Ansicht nach viel aussagekräftiger als der HUI, oder XAU Gold Index.

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Gold shoots up to new high

Web posted at: 3/27/2004 7:56:3

Source ::: Reuters

LONDON: Gold jumped to its highest since mid January yesterday afternoon in Europe on a combination of fund buying, a stronger euro/dollar and international tension, dealers and analysts said.

Silver chased gold up, making a fresh six-year peak at $7.76 an ounce as the funds spread out their purchases.

Zitat

"The consensus seems to be that the move above the previous high ($420.25 on gold) triggered some stops, with little selling around," HSBC metals analyst Alan Williamson said.

Zitat

"Although we've had a decent move up, and we thought the market might have been entering a bit of a consolidation phase, the funds themselves are still rather underweight gold,"he added.

The euro pushed briefly above $1.2200 against the dollar, after softer than expected February US consumption data. A stronger euro makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for European investors.

Gold was quoted at $421.50/422.00 by 1503 GMT, after hitting a high of $422.80, last seen in mid January. That compared with New York's last quoted level on Thursday of $416.50/417.25.

Bullion is now less than $10 away from the 15-year peak scored in early January at $430.50, when the euro surged against the dollar.

But safe-haven buying of gold has loosened the link between bullion and currencies amid a stream of global security incidents this week including Israel's assassination of the Hamas militant group's spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.

A bomb was found on one of France's main rail lines on Wednesday, giving another reason to buy gold as portfolio insurance. And on Thursday Dutch officials briefly evacuated Amsterdam's central rail station due to a bomb threat, but later said they had found nothing.

An FBI warning that Texas oil refineries could be attacked was shaken off in New York trading on Thursday, while on Friday an Air France flight from Pisa to Paris was forced to land in Milan after a suspicious piece of baggage was found on board.

The airline later said it was a false alarm.

Zitat

"Gold has broken the dominant influence of the euro, and is now being affected by a broader range of currencies (particularly the yen), economic and equity market concerns, as well as the general climate of geopolitical uncertainties," Barclays Capital said in a daily report.

In other precious metals, silver popped higher on the back of gold's gains, with the market scoring a fresh six-year peak at $7.76 - raising expectations for it to reach the February 1998 peak of $7.90. It was last quoted at $7.71/7.73 compared with $7.58/7.60 previously.

Also doch, das Gold Kartell freundliche World Gold Council WGC, fängt langsam an die Zahlen über die angeblichen, oder wirklichen Gold Bestände der Zentralbanken zu reduzieren. Bis gestern war noch die Rede von angeblichen 32000 Tonnen Gold!

Immerhin ein Anfang!

3600 Tonnen Gold weniger!

28411 Tonnen sollen es angeblich jetzt noch sein. Gold das nur noch auf dem Papier bei den Zentralbanken existiert natürlich inbegriffen!

Bis zur Bekanntgabe der wirklich noch PHYSISCH vorhandenen Gold Bestände der Zentralbanken von ca. 16000 Tonnen, wie unter anderen von GATA glaubhaft aufgezeigt wurde, ist jedoch noch ein weiter Weg.

Die Russen stocken ihre Gold Reserven auf !!!!!!

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.russlandonline.ru/logo.png]

http://www.russlandonline.ru/r…0/morenews.php?iditem=516

27-03-2004 Wirtschaft

Russland stockt Anteil von Gold an Währungsreserven auf

Russland stockt den Anteil von Gold an seinen Währungsreserven weiter auf. Der Goldvorrat erhöhte sich in absoluten Zahlen von 388,2 Tonnen Anfang Dezember 2003 auf 390,2 Tonnen Anfang März, heißt es in einer auf der Web-Seite des World Gold Council (WGC) veröffentlichten Studie.

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Dem Umfang von Gold in den Währungsreserven nach liege Russland am Platz 14 weltweit. Zugleich schrumpfte der Anteil von Gold in dem Berichtszeitraum in relativen Zahlen von 7,4 auf 5,9 Prozent.

Zitat

Den Anteil von Gold an den Währungsreserven aller Länder schätzte das WGC per Anfang März auf 28 411 Tonnen.

Den ersten Platz belegen die USA mit 8135 Tonnen bzw. 58,5 Prozent der gesamten Währungsreserven des Landes. An zweiter Stelle liegt Deutschland mit 3440 Tonnen (46,5 Prozent) und an dritter Stelle Frankreich mit 3025 Tonnen (52,8 Prozent).

Das World Gold Council ist eine internationale nicht kommerzielle Assoziation von Goldproduzenten und vereint gegenwärtig mehr als 30 größte Gold fördernde Unternehmen der Welt. (RIA)

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.rp-online.de/layout…ader/logo/nachrichten.jpg]

http://www.rp-online.de/public…tschaft/deutschland/41620

Internationales Abkommen über Notenbank-Verkäufe neu ausgehandelt

Neue Chancen für Gold und Gold-Fonds

veröffentlicht: 27.03.04 - 11:46

DÜSSELDORF. Angesichts des Terrors steigt der Goldpreis weiter. Goldfonds und Zertifikate sorgen für glänzende Augen bei Anlegern. Ab April 2001 begannen Spekulanten, so viel Gold zu kaufen, dass die Nachfrage auch heute noch nur zu steigenden Preisen gedeckt werden kann. Seit September 2001 weiß die Welt, warum das Krisenmetall steigt.

Bis zu 880 Dollar wurden im Januar 1980 für 31,1 Gramm Gold bezahlt, nachdem der Preis über Jahrzehnte bei 35 Dollar festgelegt war. Dieser Anstieg war übertrieben: Die Schuldenkrisen etwa in Südamerika gingen vorüber. Mit ihnen wich die Bedrohung für das westliche Bankensystem. Keine 260 Dollar wurden vor drei Jahren noch für die Gold-Unze bezahlt.

Heute wächst die Hoffnung auf weiter steigende Goldpreise als Ausgleich für die amerikanische Gefahr, die in gewaltigen Staatsschulden lauert. Das macht den Dollar schwach und Gold stark. Viele asiatische Staaten wechseln ihre Dollar-Einnahmen aus Exportgeschäften in Gold um. Sie haben schon Tausende Tonnen Notenbank-Gold gekauft. Mit dem steigenden Preis wächst zugleich die Versuchung für Staaten, ihr Gold zu verkaufen.

Allein die Deutschen haben 3440 Tonnen Gold in Reserve. (allenfalls auf den Papier, TG) Gegenwert: 35 Milliarden Euro. In den nächsten Monaten muss das internationale Abkommen neu ausgehandelt werden, das festlegt, wie viel die Notenbanken davon verkaufen dürfen, damit der Preis nicht fällt. Besser wäre es, der Preis würde steigen.

Zitat

Denn 35 Milliarden Euro sind nicht viel angesichts von bald 800 Milliarden Euro, mit denen allein der Bund bei Anlegern in der Kreide steht.

Wenn der Goldpreis weiter steigt, freuen sich die Minen etwa in Südafrika und Kanada. Sie können gute Dividenden zahlen. Ihre Aktien sind auf diese Weise wie Goldbarren mit Verzinsung. Investmentfonds für Goldminen-Aktien machen sich dies zu eigen. Die Anteilwerte dieser Fonds sind in den letzten drei Jahren teilweise um mehr als 50 Prozent pro Jahr gestiegen.

Die Bank Trinkaus & Burkhardt hat zudem „Quanto-Gold-Zertifikate“ heraus gebracht. Die steigen genauso wie der Goldpreis, ohne dass Anleger aus dem Euro-Raum am Dollar verlieren, was sie am Gold gewinnen, so wie es im vergangenen Jahr gewesen ist. Dresdner Bank, Commerzbank und ABN-Amro-Bank haben ähnliche Papiere für Goldfans entwickelt.

Der Autor ist freier Börsenjournalist und Privatdozent an der Universität Düsseldorf.

Von Martin Beier

****

Einer der Gründe dass diese von M. Beier erwähnten Derivative auf`s Gold wie die sogenannten "Gold-Zertifikate" geschaffen wurden, liegt meiner Ansicht nach hauptsächlich darin, potentielle Goldkäufer davon abzuhalten, echtes physisches Gold zu kaufen, damit die Gold Buillon Banken ihre Preismanipulation des Goldes möglichst lange weiterführen können. Ich warne ausdrücklich davor ausschliesslich in solche risikoreichen Zocker-Papiere zu investieren. Echtes Gold ist bedeutend sicherer und kennt im Gegensatz zu den im Beitrag von M. Beier erwähnten Papieren kein Verfallsdatum, Gold kennt auch keine Knockout Schwelle, und vor allem wird Gold nicht wertlos verfallen, wie es viele dieser Derivative auf`s Gold so auf sich haben. Die Banken bieten diese angebliche Form in Gold zu investieren nähmlich nicht darum an, weil sie Geld verlieren möchten. Zudem die Ausgabepreise dieser Zocker Papiere sind vielfach unverschämt teuer. Falls eine ausgebende Bank angenommen durch massiv steigende Goldpreise auf dem falschen Fuss erwischt würde, haben "Papier Besitzer" (mit echtem Gold haben diese Papiere in den allermeisten Fällen überhaupt nichts zu tun, und tragen die Bezeichnungen "Gold" im Namen m.A.n. völlig zu unrecht) ausser einem Zahlungsversprechen der ausgebenden Bank, im schlimmsten Falle, keine Garantie, dass die Bank überhaupt noch finanziell in der Lage ist, Eure evtl. horrenden Papiergewinne auch wirklich Auszahlen zu können.

Goldaktien hingegen bieten da viel bessere Chancen bei einem weiter steigenden Goldpreis. Zocker, oder risikobewusste neue Gold Anleger haben mit Investitionen in Aktien von Gold Explorern, allgemein gesehen, viel die grösseren Chancen Geld zu verdienen, als mit diesen Derivativen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=4936117&action=article

Breaking news

2004-03-28 16:14 GMT:

Barrick Gold braced for bid from Newmont - report

LONDON (AFX) - The world'd third largest gold producer, Barrick Gold Corp, is being targeted for a possible bid by Newmont Gold Co, the world's largest gold miner, according to The Sunday Telegraph.

The two mining giants are believed to have held informal discussions on a merger in 1999; after the talks collapsed, the two sides agreed a secret five-year standstill arrangement, which comes to an end within the next few weeks, the paper reported.

The two companies would form the world's largest gold company based on annual production, gold reserves and market capitalisation, if combined.

The merged entity would have reserves of 177m oz and pour more than 12m oz each year.

etain.lavelle@afxnews.com

el/hjp

Das Silber Cartell scheint den Stoff dringend, und in rauhen Mengen zu brauchen, wenn wie es scheint, Silber gleich in solchen riesigen Mengen, 200 Tonnen, oder 9 Millionen Unzen, geordert werden müssen?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/03/29/061.html

Monday, Mar. 29, 2004. Page 6

Landmark Silver Sale

ST. PETERSBURG (Reuters) -- Polimetall will sell 200 tons of silver in April under direct contracts to Western Europe and Dubai in the first direct export sale by a Russian metals firm, a company source said Friday.

"The metal will go to banks and companies in London, Zurich and also Dubai. We also plan to sell 600 kilograms of gold as part of this sale," the source said, adding that the entire sum of the contracts will be $55.8 million, the market price for the metals as of March 25.

The proposed silver sale is equivalent to 26 percent of Russia's 2003 output of silver, the source said.

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