@ option63
Who are you ???
Male or female ?
Please go back to your camp !
Das schoene ist das man auf dauer nicht manipulieren kann, egal was !
Den kommentar dafuer kannst du bei GATA lesen.
Thank you and bye, bye
You may turn your back again.
regards
Eldorado
Eldorado, selbst die Antwort ( Das schoene ist das man auf dauer nicht manipulieren kann, egal was !) zeigt, das du das Wesentliche nicht verstanden haben kannst und dummes Zeug schwatzt.
So, ich verabschiede mich wieder.
Bye, Ihr Analysten.
ps, es sind nicht alle gemeint, aber Leute, die wirkliche Zusammenhänge verstehen, sind mittlerweile sehr (sehr, sehr) in der Minderzahl.
@option69 
Today the 6 $ rule again ? 
The thugs always pitch after the opening bell.
Or just before the closing bell.
They are desperate and will eventually lose in time.
I knew it, see above.
Don't panic ! , cheers
Eldorado
Is Alan Greenspan now between a rock and a hard place?
Ceri Shepherd
It seems to me that as time goes by, Alan Greenspan is backing himself into a corner he is rapidly running out of options. He famously quoted that he relished the chance to be able to fight a Kondratiev winter, personally I felt this was somewhat of a rash statement as fighting the tides of history, is always going to be fraught with danger and eventually failure.
What has he achieved these last few years? Since 1995 he created the largest stock market bubble the world has ever seen. He stated that it is very difficult to identify a "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) until after the event. I would suggest that when basic valuation metrics such as the PE ratio climbs to stratospheric historic heights. When the chart of the major indices becomes obviously parabolic, and when major index gains were in the region of 30% to 40% annually a detective would have deduced that we were probably in an unsustainable "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark).
The inevitable bust has now created a new Alan Greenspan "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) in the housing market which has all the hallmarks of the stockmarket "bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark). FACT: prices are running way ahead of incomes and rental values and the direct material replacement cost of building a house. FACT: The graph is looking parabolic. Mr Greenspan if you are finding it difficult to yet again identify this "Bubble" (Federal Reserve Trademark) I will try and help you
IT IS A BUBBLE ALAN! $$$$$$$$
Thu, 31 Mar 2005
Fed Bashing
Inflation - what is it? "Why, it's an increase of the money supply and thus a rise in prices of course!"
Not really.
The way we perceive money is the way the Fed and the Government want us to perceive money. Think about it. The value of your home hasn't changed one bit. Nor has the value of gold, silver, steel, jewelery, milk, or oil. So what has changed? Your money! Your trips to the gas station aren't costing you more, your dollar is worth less and less! Your grocery bill didn't skyrocket because cows suddenly started producing less milk and chickens fewer eggs - it went up because your unit of trade has lost standing. This is not a new phenomenon - it has been steadily occurring since the early 20th century when the Fed was created. Are we to believe that somehow (magic perhaps?) the intrinsic value of an acre of land has increased from $1.25 in 1820 (Reference) to $300 today? That's the low end - good land can go for thousands an acre - and let's not even get into what it costs in a city such as New York! Is the earth in such short supply that it's value has increased more than 300-fold (remember: LOW END!) in the last 200 years? No! It is a lie. A big fat lie designed to keep us (the masses) ignorant and powerless.
Yes ladies and gentlemen, this is the pinnacle of the scheme bestowed upon us by the wealthy elite. While they accumulate more and more assets that hold true value (land, oil, art, precious metals) we plebians are fooled into accumulating pieces of paper with a net worth of ZERO. The dollar is worth nothing - it is simply a unit of exchange used to get things with intrinsic value! Same with the Euro, the Yen, the Yuan, the Ruble and every other fiat currency on the planet.
So how is this not fair? It's difficult to wrap your head around the ramifications of such a setup on a global scale. Let's take it down a notch.
Let's say we have 2 people who trade with one another - one of them provides beef, the other grain. When these two people trade, they exchange an item of worth. Perhaps one pound of beef for 2 pounds of grain. But what if the grain famer has enough beef for the moment, yet the other fellow still needs grain right away? To pass this obstacle the two agree that an IOU will be sufficient. That the grain famer will provide grain in exchange for a note from the rancher stating, "This IOU is good for XXX amount of beef on any date." Ah! Problem solved! But now let's introduce 100 other people into this circle - - all of a sudden no one can keep track of the IOU's from all the different people involved. Some are forged, some are lost - arguments break out all around. Now, let's bring in Mr. Sleaze. Mr. Sleaze shows up one day and claims to have the answer to all of their problems. "A common unit of exchange! One piece of paper will be backed by one pound of beef, thus allowing everyone to gauge the approximate value in relation to what they are trading!" So now the grain famer knows that he should charge one of these notes for every 2 pounds of grain. Still with me? Good - here's where it gets interesting.
After several years pass and the group has become accustomed to the new unit of exchange (we'll call it "The Sucker"), Mr. Sleaze starts to prey on the poor. He offers to loan them some Suckers to buy the things they need with the understanding that they must pay him back or he will take something of value such as their home. Well of course, the poor rarely emerge up from the problems they are mired in, so inevitably Mr. Sleaze finds himself the owner of several new homes. And what price did he pay? The cost of a few pieces of paper that he printed up to supply the loan. He is able to do so because he presumes that no one will actually attempt to redeem these notes for beef from him, they will spend their Suckers elsewhere. The ownership of all of these assets soon places him in a position of authority. With such a profitable business (for this has cost him absolutely nothing...he's doing these people a FAVOR, remember?) and a rise to power, Mr. Sleaze decides to expand by bringing a few people in on the secret. He sends them out to introduce The Sucker to other communities in need. However, these neophytes are not nearly so good at business as he is, and soon there is a steep drop of confidence in The Sucker. The people flock to Mr. Sleaze and demand to redeem their suckers for beef, since that's what they are backed by after all. Sensing the impending collapse of his scheme, Mr. Sleaze uses his authority to declare beef illegal. He then calms the people by giving out virtually interest-free loans. Since the people now have a long history with this form of currency, they are blinded by their greed - "With this new loan I can buy so much land the naked eye won't be able to see the end of it, and all it will cost me is a bag of grain a month for 5 years!" Of course, Mr. Sleaze will have to create new Suckers out of nothing in order to make these loans. This increases the supply of Suckers which in turn causes the people to get into price wars, "I'll pay you TWICE what he's offering! I really need that grain!", thus causing the number of Suckers required for a given item to increase without the value of the item actually increasing. The Sucker has lost value simply due to the number of them in circulation.
So what do we have? We have a crook who provides Suckers for the masses and is paid in real, hard assets in exchange. This is what the Fed and the goverment are doing right now.
We are tricked into believing that by purchasing a $250,000 house with $25,000 down that we own it. We do not. The bank owns the asset and has put you into slavery for the next 30 years trying to pay off the principal and interest which actually amount to closer to $500,000! Do you think the wealthy have to worry about such things? Of course not! So long as the "serfs" do not demand a share of the things that truly have value, the elite can simply ride on the back of the interest payments on the loans they so "generously" provide!
So, as the smartest (and most beautiful) woman I know put it, "What's your point?" It is simply this - - you are being robbed. Slowly but steadily, the value of your money is being eroded whilst the value of the things you need (food, gas, housing) remains constant. Have your wages increased as much percentage-wise as milk and oil have over the last several years? No? Then you are now officially "poorer" than you were then. Your house is not worth more, it is worth exactly the same as when you bought it - the value of the currency has fallen. Inflation today is not because of a shortage of the things you need, but a long-standing Sucker Scheme that robs you of the very things you work so hard for.
What are we to do about it? Reject fiat. Yes, I know - you need some cash, it's just the way the world works right now. But someday the scheme will end, for nothing lasts forever. When that day comes, do you want to be holding gold, silver and land, or a checkbook that says you have 500,000 worthless pieces of paper?
Think about it.
Hopefully its just a 3 $ Rule, it looks like that for the rest of the session.
Anyway, don't run away and hang in, or on the horse !. 
I switch off and I'm out of here, for today.
Next week is another week !
Enjoy your weekend 
Vaya condios , XEX
GOLD & INFLATION
by Eric Hommelberg
April 01, 2005
Gold & Inflation is chapter III of the Gold drivers 2005 report. It discusses the possibility of Inflation picking up steam and how it could affect Gold. Signs are surfacing everywhere that inflation is picking up steam indeed. The Producer Price Index remains above the Consumer Price Index for almost two years now which doesn't bode well for the CPI. Rising Oil prices are here to stay and will translate itself into a higher CPI. As long as the FED doesn’t raise interest rates fast enough in order to contain Inflation, real rates will stay negative or extreme low. History suggests that negative/low real rates are on of the strongest drivers for the price of Gold.
This chapter will focus on :
1. Current Inflation numbers reliable ?
2. Future Inflation
3. Higher rates as a result of a dropping dollar good for Gold
4. Negative real rates and Gold
1 - Current Inflation numbers reliable ?
Although official inflation statistics do suggest that inflation is well under control, the opposite seems to be true. Just ask people if they are happy with sky-rocketing food, energy and health care prices and you’ll get an idea. Hedonic adjusted Pentium IV processors won’t cure the pain felt in consumer pockets. Needless to say that over 90% of the American public don’t believe the official inflation statistics and neither does PIMCO’s managing director Bill Gross.
Bill Gross on adjusted inflation numbers :
“Talk about a con job ! The government says that if the quality of a product got better over the last 12 month that it didn’t really go up in price in fact it may have actually gone down! For instance, prices of desktop and notebook computers declined by 8% a year during past decade. The WSJ reports but because the machines computer power and memory have improved, their hedonically adjusted prices have dropped by 25% a year since 1997. No wonder the core is less than 2% with computers dropping that much every year.”
“Actually, to make the case for a government con job, it’s important to point out that the bulk of these hedonic adjustments have come only in the past few years, when it became necessary to buttress Greenspan’s concept of our New Age Economy.”
“Today no less than 46% of the weight of the US CPI comes from products subject to hedonic adjustments. PIMCO calculates that without them they would be between 0.5% and 1.1% higher each year since 1987.” END.
Ok you'll say, the government can mess up with so many goods by means of hedonic adjustments but what about oil and gasoline ? Higher oil/gasoline prices should be reflected in the government PPI/CPI numbers shouldn’t they ? Well, they don't ! The government just reports LOWER oil/gasoline prices instead of the real figures. You don't believe it ?
Bill King (from the King Report) reported in February this year :
The big rally in oil and gasoline is not reflected in the January PPI. BLS actually has energy prices down 1.3% for January, with crude energy prices down 4.5%! Absurd! The below charts show crude oil rallied from the low to high $40 handle; gasoline and heating oil surged while natural gas traded sideways. END.
The next day he continued :
We have been ridiculing the CPI for years. Yesterday’s CPI report is yet another bogus accounting of inflation. Energy prices fell 1.1% after falling 1.3% in December. Gasoline fell 2.1% and heating oil fell 5.2%. Gasoline prices are down 20.2% over the last 3 months annualized. Food & beverage prices fell 4.6% in the CPI-U (Urban) table while fuels fell 4.9%. Public transportation prices fell 0.8%. You saw the energy charts in yesterday’s missive. This is absurd.
Absurd indeed when the following Headline appears in the media :
US gasoline price breaks $2 a gallon, AAA says
the U.S. government projected that gasoline prices will hit a new record high this spring, reaching a national monthly average of $2.15 a gallon. END.
Well, they didn't have to wait for long :
Gasoline prices hit nationwide record
Fri Mar 18, 6:13 AM ET
Gasoline hit a record nationwide average price of $2.055 a gallon, motorist club AAA reported Thursday, creeping up 0.2 of a cent overnight to eclipse the previous high of $2.054 last May. END.
So we have a government here projecting record high gasoline prices although they are trending down according to their own PPI/CPI statistics. To make things even more absurd just take a look at the table shown below posted at LemetropoleCafe.com. It displays the actual monthly average prices vs the Government reported prices.
Well, this table says it all, the government doesn't report the real numbers but LOWER ! They do that in order to keep inflation rates low, it's as simple as that !
Conclusion : Inflation is actually higher than reported.
Another expert agreeing with this thesis is professor Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University)
Prof Campbell R. Harvey :
March 23, 2005
"I believe we have a more serious inflation problem than is widely acknowledged in the market," says Harvey.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator of wholesale prices, has been running above the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since March 2003.
"This is ominous," Harvey said. "On a year-over-year basis, the PPI exceeded the CPI in 2000, 1989, 1978 and the last half of 1972. When this happened over a sustained period, a recession has followed."
"The economic story is straightforward. The PPI is an advance indicator of consumer price inflation. It takes a while for the prices of production goods to work their way through the system and into consumer prices. The high PPI indicates substantially higher consumer price inflation in the future," Harvey said. END.
So we have higher Inflation than reported by government but for what reason inflation must reported lower than actual ?
Bill Gross :
“Alan Greenspan has a dual prerogative at the Federal Reserve. He is charged with keeping inflation low and economic output high. The magic of hedonic/substitution adjustments keeps both of these birds flyin’ at the same time, one under the magical 2% radar, which marks the dividing line between benign and worrisome inflation , and the other (real GDP), over the hurdle of 3% which suggest the continuation of high productivity. “
“My sense is that the CPI is really 1% higher than the official numbers and that GDP is 1% less. You’re witnessing a ‘haute con job’”.!!
END
Despite all the hedonic adjustments Inflation is getting noticed these days :
Manufacturers hike prices to offset commodity costs
NEW YORK, (Reuters) - Industrial manufacturers, who until recently footed the bill for high raw material costs, took advantage of surging demand to pass along the increase to their customers during the second quarter.
U.S. stocks to open lower as inflation data weighs
Tuesday November 16, 9:06 am ET
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower open Tuesday as broadly positive third quarter results from a slew of retailers including Wal-Mart and Home Depot, were offset by concern over a surge in October wholesale inflation to its fastest rate in 14 years.END.
By our "friendly" neighbors to the North.
On or about March 15, 2005, a contract will be signed
between China and Canada that'll change America's oil
outlook forever.
The Canadian government is selling the United States' oil
future down the river.
But while most resource investors will bail out of their
energy positions, you can cash in - by buying grossly
undervalued stock in the ready-to-explode resource giants
that 99% of American investors overlook.
Get in NOW, and you'll be able to afford the $5-a-gallon
gas that's coming - along with a Benz or two to burn it
in...
Unknown
WARREN BUFFET
NOBODY'S FOOL
By Eric J. Fry
Is Warren Buffett lazy? Or foolish?
Why else would he allow more than $40 billion dollars to
pile up on the balance sheet of Berkshire Hathaway? Why
else would he refuse to buy any of the stocks that Wall
Street's finest minds recommend?
It's possible, of course, that the Oracle of Omaha is still
as shrewd as ever. So let's examine, one by one, the
possible explanations for his investment IN-activity.
Explanation #1: Buffett is lazy. Maybe so. He certainly
deserves to lean back in his chair and kick his feet up on
the desk for a while. The 74-year old multi-billionaire has
amassed more than enough money for one lifetime. In fact,
he has amassed more than enough money for about 1,000
lifetimes (even after taking into account the effects of
inflation over an 80,000-year span). So why should he
bother with the daily grind of buying low and selling high?
The answer is that he probably shouldn't bother, but he
does. He continues to explore for investment opportunities
and continues to chastise himself publicly when he fails to
find them. "My hope was to make several multi-billion
dollar acquisitions that would add new and significant
streams of earnings to the many we already have," Buffett
confessed in this year's letter to Berkshire shareholders.
"But I struck out. Additionally, I found very few
attractive securities to buy..."
By Buffett's own admission, he no longer expects to produce
the stellar results of his earlier years, but not for lack
of effort. He still shows up at the ballpark every day
ready to play. "Overall, we are certain Berkshire's
performance in the future will fall far short of what it
has been in the past," Buffett writes, "Nonetheless, [Vice
Chairman Charlie Munger] and I remain hopeful that we can
deliver results that are modestly above average."
So you see; the man is not lazy or indifferent about the
company he oversees.
Explanation #2: Buffett is foolish. This explanation seems
less plausible than sloth. Smart people sometimes do stupid
things, even very smart people. As Buffett recently
confessed, "I made a big mistake not selling several of our
large holdings during The Great Bubble."
But despite Buffet's occasional lapses into mediocrity, he
has amassed an unparalleled investment record over the last
40 years. It would have been impossible to hide foolishness
for so long. Over longer time frames smart investors tend
to demonstrate their intelligence as undeniably as stupid
investors demonstrate their incompetence. Since 1965,
Buffett has delivered an average annual gain of nearly 22%,
or more than double the annual returns of the S&P 500 over
the same time frame.
Hmmm...this does not seem like the handiwork of a foolish
investor.
Explanation #3: Buffett remains a shrewd – if inactive –
investor. This is the Rude Awakening's preferred
explanation for Buffett's seeming indolence. The man is
disciplined to a fault – investing only when superior
opportunities present themselves and abstaining when they
don't. Unfortunately, Buffett hasn't been finding anything
he considers worth buying.
In fact, as the chart below illustrates, Warren and Charlie
haven't been finding a heck of a lot to buy for many years.
Back in 1994, cash was a nearly invisible asset class on
Berkshire's balance sheet, while equity investments were
equivalent to 128% of book value. But cash has been piling
up ever since, as the relative size of Berkshire's stock
investments has steadily decreased. This year, for the very
first time, Berkshire's cash exceeds the stated value of
its equity holdings. With the benefit of hindsight, we see
that Buffett was prudent to reduce his equity allocation
into the booming stock market of the late 1990s, and was
equally prudent to increase his cash allocation as share
prices fell from the 2000 peak.
Buffett admits that Berkshire's growing wad of cash is
burning a hole in his trousers, but he ain't buyin' just
for the sake of buying. "What Charlie and I would like is a
little action now," Buffett writes in his annual letter.
"We don't enjoy sitting on $43 billion of cash equivalents
that are earning paltry returns. Instead, we yearn to buy
more fractional interests similar to those we now own or —
better still — more large businesses outright. We will do
either, however, only when purchases can be made at prices
that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our
investment."
Sounds like a reasonable explanation to us, particularly in
light of the fact that Buffett has often sat idle for long
periods of time. 15 years ago, for example, a slightly
younger Warren Buffett boasted in Berkshire Hathaway's 1990
annual report, "Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the
cornerstone of our investment style: This year we neither
bought nor sold a share of five of our six major holdings.
The exception was Wells Fargo...We welcomed the (Wells
Fargo) decline, because it allowed us to pick up many more
shares at the new, panic prices...The most common cause of
low prices is pessimism - sometimes pervasive, sometimes
specific to a company or industry. We want to do business
in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but
because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that
is the enemy of the rational buyer."
Buffett's aversion to optimism may also explain why he is
not dabbling in the real estate market either.
"Notice that Buffett is not investing in real estate,"
observes Susan Walker, in an insightful article for Fox
News, "an all-too-tempting alternative for regular folks
who have some money they would like to invest but who don't
trust the stock markets. In fact, as the most recent issue
of 'The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast' points out, many
people are 'now captivated by the concept of easy wealth
through real estate...According to the National Association
of Realtors, a stunning 25 percent of the 7.7 million homes
sold in 2004 were purchased strictly as investments.'"
Perhaps Buffett has observed sometime during his lifetime
that real estate prices – like stock prices – do not always
go up. Perhaps too, he has noticed that real estate prices
are already falling in some parts of the country.
"Total U.S. home sales dropped dramatically by 9.7 percent
from December 2004 to January 2005 (before revisions),"
Walker notes, "even as median sales prices on new U.S.
homes plunged 13% from $229,700 to $199,400. That decline
in the median sales price was the largest one-month fall in
the history of the data, which goes back to 1963."
"So here's the most under-asked question of the year,"
Walker concludes, "If Warren Buffet isn't putting Berkshire
Hathaway's money in stocks [or in real estate], can this be
a good time for anyone else to do it?
Good question, Susan.
-----------------------------------------
I hope he puts more money on metals as a known physical silver holder.
XEX
Ein Teil von den bericht oben, bzw. link :
There are many players in this little game of currencies, and the most recent bear in the dollar has created winners and losers. An example of a loser would be the South African stocks and the beating they have been taking as the Rand climbed ever higher against the dollar, in effect vaporizing all of the inherent value created as the dollar gold price has risen. A subject for another day..... confiscation of gold through currency manipulation. 
XEX
Let us see what this week indicates: PREDICTIONS (NEWSLETTER) FOR 4TH TO 8TH APRIL 2005.
GOLD
I would still like to wait another week before I give my recommendation in regard to gold. Please therefore don’t trade gold on the buying side. Sell all positions in it because if it gives a negative sign on Monday, then it could fall four percent during the week. On weakness, one can go short. Emotions have no place and don’t work in the market and that is why for the first time, I am recommending selling or shorting gold. If anyone still feels like staying in gold, then the prudent thing is to buy physical gold or gold coins so that you don't lose money in your trading account. However, if you are trading futures or options, then you have to be smart and flow with the wave.
A few seemingly intelligent gold bugs are saying that one should buy gold because it will reach $520 or more. Well, as a matter of fact, I see it soaring to $1000, but I cannot recommend that you buy it during a weak period! I shall do that at the appropriate moment- when nature is supportive of gold. Then you can buy and I am sure you will make a fortune.
Trading range - $425 TO $408
SILVER
This will also be a tough time for silver as planetary movements are not in her favour. I advise that you wait another week. I know that many of my members are eagerly waiting for my buying signal in silver. Just a little more patience and I shall soon give it once I get confirmation from my planetary calculations.
Trading range - $7.08 to $6.78. If its breaks $6.78, then I see it going to $6.52.
OIL
My own view is that there is too much money flowing in oil. That is why we saw so much volatility last week. If it doesn’t close above $55.80, don't cover your short. If it however closes above $55.80 and stays up for three days, then I recommend buying oil for the next six months as prices could touch $80. As you may recall, I have been saying that oil will be ready to rise from May 2005. The current situation makes me wonder whether the May period hasn’t started early.
THERE IS MASSIVE SPECULATION GOING ON HERE. INDEED IT IS LIKE A WAR AND I SUGGEST THAT YOU DON’T GET CAUGHT UP IN THIS WAR. 1000% OIL WILL FALL ON TUESDAY.”
You know from who !!
XEX
der Wall ist am brechen ....
Fannie, General Motores, AIG, Delphi
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FNM,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GM,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AIG,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DPH,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
... mehr in der Pipeline?!?!
Freddie, JPM und Citi
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FRE,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=JPM,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=C,uu[w,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uj[$indu]!Lv25]&pref=G
(p.s. das ist KEIN Aprilscherz)
GMY
Another brick in the wall, or crack !
cheers
XEX
aber ich nehme die letzten zwei Tage ernst.
Ab jetzt bin ich - zum ersten Male seit Nov . 2003 wieder zu 100%
investiert. Wenn ich es irgendwann in den nächsten Monaten bereuen sollte,
ich kann meinen Benutzernamen immer noch von germoney in stupidmoney ändern.
GMY (transient)
wie wäre es mit "sensa-d'oro" ?
(simply kidding)
GMY
