Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    @hpoth,
    aber "wir" haben eine andere mentalität. (mit wir mein ich die Deutschen, ich bin österreicher, da ist´s wieder a bisserl anders, aber nicht viel.)
    Siehe nach 1. Weltkrieg. Schulden müssen bezahlt werden.
    Eine Frage der Ehre!!


    Tschonko

    @ Hallo Tschonko,


    ob sich da die Amis dranhalten? da bin ich aber sehr skeptisch, dort ist doch Kapitalmismuss pur und diese Gesellschaft hat starke Ellenbogen, nach dem Motto erst komme ich, dann kommt lange nichts, dann komme ich wieder.


    Gut Nacht


    Hpoth

    @hpoth,
    das habe ich oben in den Posting ja geschrieben.


    "Das bedeutet. Wenn man jemandem Geld schuldet und er will den $
    nicht annehmen, kann man die Schuld für wertlos erklären und sich vertschüssen.
    Das haben die USA schon verinnerlicht."


    Die halten sich nicht dran, die drucken nur, sie sind die "masters of the world".
    Aber wir Europäer dürfen die Folgen dann mitausbaden.
    So schaut´s aus.


    Grüße
    Tschonko

    Gold Update
    The Pressure From Above
    Enrico Orlandini
    Lasco Report
    18 May, 2005


    There are an awful lot of disappointed gold bugs at this point in time. In fact, confused would probably be a better way to describe it. How can the dollar be rallying and gold prices declining if we have inflation on the doorstep? After all, Alan Greenspan is raising rates in an effort to keep inflation in check. These gradual adjustments will be necessary in order to maintain a well-balanced economy. Greenspan said so! Unfortunately, I suspect that he may be mistaken. I have contended for some time that Greenspan's real fear is deflation and he's just trying to reload the Fed interest rate gun with as many silver bullets as he can in case his worst nightmare comes to pass. The evidence available now indicates that he won't have long to wait.



    I see a number of possible scenarios here but the three most obvious seem to be the following:.


    The higher low made back in February of 414.00 holds as we compress into a tighter and tighter trading range. Given the fact that we are in a Bull Market for gold, the result of this compression should be an explosion to the upside..


    The $414.00 higher low is violated and we continue down to test $400.00 and maybe $375.00 as deflationary pressure become more and more evident..


    Gold becomes range bound in the $414.00 to $440.00 area for some weeks or even months to come. .....


    Which way will it go? I really don't know but I do know that gold is oversold here and it would be difficult to drive the price much lower. The fact that the Commercial traders have added on to their long positions for the second consecutive week also seems to indicate that the rally may come sooner rather than later. Personally, my bet is that we trade in a range for some weeks, but that's just a guess.


    In any event, the long term outlook for gold is quite bullish for a number of reasons. First and foremost involves the fact that the world's Central Banks led by the Federal Reserve, are currently flooding the planet with liquidity. If deflation really takes hold, the flood will become similar to the storm that lasted forty days and forty nights. Other reasons for a continued bull market in gold shouldn't be overlooked either. They include an out of control fiscal deficit, declining gold production, increased problems in the Middle East, and a non-productive U.S. economy based on debt and consumption. Couple this with the lack of any real political will to deal with the hard choices and you begin to see a real problem in the not too distant horizon.




    more..... at


    http://www.321gold.com/editori…dini/orlandini051805.html

    NEW DELHI, May 17 (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's largest consumer, has surged this week because of lower prices and strong wedding season demand, traders said on Tuesday. Jewellers were placing large orders and banks were running out of ready stocks, they said…Gold buying has jumped to 1,000 to 1,500 kg a day in Ahmedabad from 500 kg during the off season. In Jaipur, the capital of Rajasthan state, gold imports have doubled to 1,000 kg…300 kg of gold was being sold everyday in Madras compared with 175 kg in April." (JB emphasis.) ;)

    China denies yen manipulation


    18/05/2005 08:41



    Singapore - China is not manipulating its currency to enjoy a trade surplus with the United States, a senior Chinese economic official said here Wednesday as he urged Washington to get its "own house in order" before making currency demands on Beijing. :D


    Wei Benhua, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange deputy administrator, also reiterated that China had no time frame for moving to a more flexible exhange rate.


    "US senators are blaming us on the grounds that China was using the exchange rate to obtain a surplus from the US. We can not accept that," Wei told reporters at a Singapore-China business forum.


    "We do have a surplus with the US. However we also have (trade deficits) with many of the European countries ... and also with the Southeast Asian region.


    "So how do you manipulate your currency just to get surplus from the US? On the other side, you are having a deficit with other countries ... that's just impossible."


    Wei said there were problems with the fundamentals of the US economy that were also contributing to the nation's trade woes.


    "My suggestion to them ... is to put their own house in order before blaming others," he said.


    Wei's comments were in answer to a reporter's question for a reaction to a US Treasury report released on Tuesday that said China's "highly distortionary" currency regime threatened global growth.


    The report stopped short of saying China was a currency manipulator under a US legal definition, :D, which could have opened the way to US sanctions, but warned it may earn that label if "current trends continue".


    str-kma/bmm

    Over the long-term gold stocks are counter-cyclical investments in that they trend higher during periods of stock market weakness and trend lower during periods of stock market strength; or, putting it another way, when the broad stock market is in a long-term upward trend the gold sector will be in a long-term downward trend, and vice versa. There will, however, be periods of a year or even longer when the gold sector and the broad stock market trend in the same direction. Also, during brief periods when the broad stock market falls at a very rapid rate the gold sector will almost always gets dragged down regardless of what is happening to the gold price at the time (the only exception we know of occurred in September of 2001 when the terrorism-related crash in the stock market was accompanied by moderate strength in the gold sector). The long-term trends, however, are invariably opposite.


    http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1116424801.php

    Zitat

    Original von Goldinvest
    Ist das etwa ein Anzeichen für die Abkopplung des Goldpreises, auf die alle gewartet haben ?


    Zeit waere es ja, aber woher kommt nun die Dollarstaerke ?...


    U.S. Dollar Fundamentals


    Why has the U.S. dollar strengthened over the past six months? I think there are three broad possible answers and any one or all of them are legitimate factors.


    1. Dollar shorts have been unwinding their trades to lock in profits and, as a result, they have prolonged this current dollar rally. The rally began in December 2004 when the dollar bounced off a major, decades-low support level near 80. Had I been more cautious, I would have had the foresight to see this as the opportune time to unload or lighten more gold mining shares than I did. I won't make that mistake again. :D


    2. Currency traders are going long the dollar based on an expectation of continued rate hikes in the U.S., near-term weakness in the Euro ahead of the EU constitution vote later this month, and perhaps in response to favorable government reports indicating a stronger U.S. economy. Recent reports indicate better than expected job growth and retail sales, coupled with a lower than expected budget deficit and narrowing trade gap, all of which have been reinforced by supporting comments from various Fed governors.


    3. In anticipation of an imminent revaluation of China's currency, which is expected to drive the U.S. dollar lower, the U.S. Treasury may be artificially supporting or managing this recent rise in the dollar. Why? To ensure that when the dollar falls, it does so from a much higher level so that it won't take out the decades-low support level of 80. So what? I can only imagine that "never-break" level is closely tied to trillions of dollar derivative contracts that are now at risk of imploding on a breach of that support.


    So, fundamentally speaking, where is the U.S. dollar headed next? My guess is a reversal lower as early as next week to eventually retest the 80 support level. Why lower now? Because the market constantly looks forward and this is what it sees.


    1. A flattening yield curve will force the Fed to stop or slow its rate hikes. The market knows this will be dollar negative. Long bond yields continue to drop, perhaps anticipating recession, deflation, and future rate cuts.


    2. China will revalue its currency sooner than later. The market knows this will be dollar negative. Add to this recent comments from other major trading partners like Russia, North Korea, India, and Japan who all have expressed a desire to diversify their foreign reserves, which means they plan to hold or buy fewer U.S. dollars in the future.


    3. Despite recent government reports, the concept of a stronger U.S. economy may be an illusion. The market anticipates weaker corporate earnings and is even starting to question the credibility of favorable U.S. data being reported. For example, mega-retailer Walmart reported disappointing first quarter results that contradict U.S. reports of strong retail sales. Reports of better than expected job growth significantly aided by a "plug" from the BLS birth/death business model fail to stand up to scrutiny. And Commerce Department reports of a "narrowing" trade deficit can't distract from record debt and trade imbalances again this year......


    In conclusion, the data and arguments presented above tell me that the U.S. dollar is ready to reverse direction lower sometime over the next two weeks and, as a result, gold and mining shares are at or near bottom prices. This is the moment to acquire shares of strong gold producers and quality explorers with substantial reserves. At a minimum, hold tight to the shares you already own and resist temptation to sell them amid the fears and despair that accompany all major market bottoms.


    May 15, 2005
    Lou Passi


    What goes up must come down, so the USD...


    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/passi/passi051605.html

    excerpt from The McClellan Market Report - Daily Edition of May 16, 2005
    http://www.321gold.com/editori…llan/mcclellan051805.html



    Current Opinion - XAU & GOLD: Bearish short and intermediate term. Change to short and intermediate term bullish if the XAU closes above 81.27.


    Gold dropped for the third trading day in a row, and has now fallen $8.60/oz since last Wednesday. The XAU is in even worse shape, as gold stock traders seem to be abandoning all hope. That index is nearing the level of its May 2004 low. But more important than the level is the fact that the XAU has fallen really far in a short time. That adds up to an oversold condition, as illustrated by the indicator in our chart. Over the past 4 years, only the July 2002 and May 2004 bottoms saw a more oversold condition, and those two were indeed very good bottoms. So even though we see gold prices as being in a generalized downtrend until 2009, we know that such a downtrend won't proceed in a straight line, and that big trading opportunities will appear along the way. It looks to us as though an important trading opportunity for gold stocks is shaping up right now.



    This sort of rare oversold condition makes it tempting to "catch the falling knife," but we have to advise against that. The frustrating aspect of oversold conditions is their ability to lead to even bigger oversold conditions, and that is the danger of jumping in too early. We note also that a full moon lies ahead of us on May 23, and we have noted previously that full moons have an interesting ability to act as turning points. 8o Because of that, and because of some Timing Model signals that we reported in our last newsletter, we'd be much more inclined to make an early leap into an oversold condition towards the end of this week.


    http://www.goldseiten-forum.de…t=&hilightuser=0&page=241

    :rolleyes:Crystalball news:


    Currently, gold and silver are moving in a positive cycle while metal stocks also came back quite strongly. I do not see gold moving up much higher, especially above $425.


    Currencies are trading as predicted; the US dollar is ready to leap forward and it will touch another new high by Friday. You should therefore buy the dollar on weakness. Today is also a good day to accumulate the dollar index. 8o 8o...... vielleicht nur ein Geruecht ????



    Keep the faith and have no regrets !!!

    Wednesday, May 18, 2005, 12:22:00 AM EST


    China Enters Foreign Exchange Arena
    Author: Jim Sinclair


    However the market, the dollar or gold interprets this move by China be assured of one thing: It is a disaster for the TIC figures as China, along with Japan, have been major dollar buyers as a means of defending their respective currencies.


    An upward revaluation of the Chinese Yuan will put irresistible upward pressure on the currencies of China's Asian trading partners for speculative and trade reasons and will relieve China of the need to buy dollars upon which the US is so seriously dependent because of its massive Budget and Trade deficits.

    There is no fundamental question that an upward revaluation of the Yuan or its float against a basket of currencies would be a major blow to the dollar by the natural reaction to reduce international dollar demand that will not be offset by higher US interest rates. Therefore, no matter how the market reads it please be calm in your positions as long as you avoided the evils of credit. If your positions are on margin, then you have not taken my advice in gold anything.

    At the very least, opening China to world markets for speculation in various currencies is like opening Pandora's box. The Chinese are the world's greatest speculators and they are proud of it. The $2.6 trillion dollar per day currency market just got a boost to probably $4 to $5 trillion per day.

    In retrospect, the US hard line against China today opened the Pandora's box that will in time eat the dollar to pieces. X(
    [U]The Chinese are master chess players and their reaction will in time be known as the Yuan to Dollar "Check Mate."     :D



    China broadens forex system


    SHANGHAI, China (Reuters) -- China launched a new foreign exchange dealing system on Wednesday that allows domestic trading in currencies other than the yuan, a milestone in the country's effort to reform its tightly controlled currency regime.


    The system, allowing trade in China in eight more currency pairs, came as the U.S. Treasury warned that Beijing could be labelled a manipulative trading partner unless it took swift steps toward a more flexible yuan.


    The China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) said the new system hosted trading in the U.S. dollar against the euro, yen, Hong Kong dollar, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, plus the euro versus the yen.


    Officials have assembled a strong line-up of pioneering foreign and local banks to launch the system, from ABN AMRO to Bank of China, but economists are divided as to whether the market will attract the business it needs to take off long-term.

    From the crystalball,something to remember:


    With the passing of each day, we are gradually entering deeper into a unique and mysterious cube where it is increasingly difficult to predict the future trends of the world financial markets. We are on a path in which logical study of the economic outlook, trade deficits and current geo-political or world economic news will fail to yield clear indications of what to expect in the future. This difficulty is quite apparent and it explains why hedge funds and many smart traders are making mistakes everyday. This is resulting in loses for many, with money moving away from intelligent investors and smart traders into the hands of a few lucky people that are trading in accordance to the current wave.


    The fact is that everyone invests as per his or her own style, with a lot of people abiding by a particular theory or guided by their own vision of the future. Indeed, I am also of that approach, though having kept an unshakable faith in my theory. However, it is true that astrological theory does not inspire great respect in today’s modern world and especially the world financial market. To date, I am yet to get an answer as to why people in the financial market do not believe in nature’s wave. Why is it that they place so much faith in technical charts, economic data or CEO as opposed to this subject that goes back thousands of years? It is like having the most precious jewel neglected somewhere in a corner while everyone fawns over artificial jewellery! It is saddening to me that inordinate attention should be directed elsewhere while the real key to unravelling the future is ignored. Well, the answer that explains this is that “we are in a modern artificial world”.


    The other problem is that people always suppose that whatever they think is the right thing and that it should invariably be proved to be correct. They therefore rather naively expect everything to unravel as per their own expectations. My own opinion is that this is not the right way of thinking. It is like someone who buys any stocks/gold/oil or any with the desire or expectation that it should move up. She/he then watches the screen for the entire day though he very well knows that price movement is not in his hands. Eventually when he gets disappointed, he becomes upset and starts blaming himself or even others sometimes. This happens due to too much desire to make money without considering nature and the timing factor.


    Today many intelligent investor's, bankers and fund managers are following my work with keen interest, with some writing that they now understand nature’s wave but only few do not mind openly acknowledging that they follow my predictions. Needless to say, though it is very small way but still I am very happy for this unique science or nature wave as it is finally getting the respect and appreciation that it deserves.


    I neither hate nor favour gold or the dollar; I have been writing and will continue to write what I see. In regard to my stand on gold and the dollar, only Bill Murphy and a few others understood me. Even though my outlook for gold has been negative, Bill Murphy added my comments on Lemetropole. That is how Bill is; though he is fighting his own battles but same time he also wants to hear all kinds of noises at the same time.



    PREDICTION FROM 16 MAY TO 20 MAY 2005


    GOLD


    Last week gold prices touched both predicted prices of “$428.50 and $418.5” and remain low side. At the same time, the dollar is moving higher and higher as predicted. Gold is fighting valiantly but it has not been able to win because out of ten power points, it only carries three. This is why I have not recommended any great rise during the current period as well as for the last five months. In 2001 when I first strongly recommended buying gold, it was carrying only -1 point but I saw a rising up to point seven out of ten in the seven year (2001 to 2007).


    Last December it reached four points while now it is on three. Any time during the third or fourth quarter of 2005, gold should reach around two points and mind boggling seven points by 2007. This clearly shows that there will be a great rise in 2006 and 2007.
    Therefore, my clear and blunt advice is that you should not expect too much from gold in 2005. However, one should take advantage of the short term rising cycles and stay away when time is uncertain. This should be your planning for gold.


    During this week GOLD will have a positive move. Buy for a short period therefore and get out at around $425.70.


    SILVER


    The movement of silver prices will be completely independent. Please don’t compare it with gold or the dollar’s move. There will be a rise in Silver due to huge speculation that will take place in the next few years; it may rise a few folds. Silver will also rise this year and that time is soon coming. As soon as Mars gives the appropriate indication, I shall write to you.


    Silver will be stable during this week, though we may also experience a bit of volatility. The downside will be $6.75 while the upside will be $7.14 once again. If prices break either side, then movement into that direction will take place quite rapidly.


    COPPER/PALLADIUM/PLATINUM


    As predicted, there was a fall in copper last week. For the time being, you need not buy copper at any price. In 2002/3 when copper was trading around $65, I advised many of my clients to buy. Two months back I recommended selling or shorting when it reached $150. My advice is still to remain short.


    This week Palladium will trade in a very narrow range. Don’t buy platinum or just get out from platinum position.


    CURRENCIES


    Last week the dollar emerged the clear winner. Major currency traders have started giving serious thought to my currencies prediction as in the last four years have called both the top and bottom in all major currencies. I can only say that thanks go to this unique subject.


    Any time from Wednesday this week, a very strong rise will come again in the dollar index. We shall soon see the Euro, pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar breaking all important technical supports.


    A VERY SCARING WAVE LIKE TSUNAMI HAS ALREADY STARTED IN DOLLAR FOURTY DAYS BACK AND SOON WILL TAKE A BIGER SHAPE. YOU SHOULD THINK TWICE BEFORE YOU SHORT THE US DOLLAR. I HAVE BEEN WARNING YOU OF THIS FOR THE LAST FIVE MONTHS. AS A RESULT OF THIS, I DO NOT SEE A GREAT RISE IN METALS.


    On Monday, the dollar will remain sideways or a little weak. However don’t make the mistake of shorting. My next target for the dollar index is 88.20 and $85.50 on the low side. Keep buying dollar index on weakness.


    I would like to wish you good luck in your trading and thank you all for your love and appreciation. This has greatly motivated me to work hard to understand the relation of nature wave and most unpredictable world financial market.


    Der Papa wirds schon richten... :D

    Wenn ich mir alles so anschaue und lese dann denke ich mal passiert folgendes:


    Gold und Aktien werden bis ca.Anfang Juli wieder ansteigen >(445 $) dann geht es leider wieder runter >(428 $) und erst ab mitte/ende August geht es aufwaerts bis mitte November >(455 $ ) ,dann wieder runter >(438 $ ) und ab mitte Dezember 2005 an die > (500 $ ).

    Erst 2006 - 2007 kann man ansich ruhig schlafen als Gold Bug und Gold wird die 600 Dollar locker erreichen.
    Die Junior Aktien kommen erst in zwei bis drei Jahren ganz gross raus.


    Sicher gibt es da wieder einige Korrekturen,schaetze im April- Mai 2006.
    Ist nur meine Meinung, besser gesagt mein Gefuehl wenn ich die Astrologen und Analysten vergleiche im Moment.
    Wie gesagt, nicht zu viel dieses Jahr von Gold erwarten und langsam einsteigen fuer die jenigen die Cash haben....Enter at your own risk !


    Es ist natuerlich alles eine reine Vermutung/Erwartung von mir.
    Mein Sprichwort ist erwarte das unerwartene,ich stell mich darauf ein.


    Der USD Index kommt nicht ueber die 87 drueber, und wenn nur fuer wenige Tage. Heute ist wieder Kampftag USD vs Gold,mal schaun wie der ausgeht bis Freitag.


    Am Montag kommt der Vollmond noch dazu was eine groessere Auswirkung haben kann fuer beide Werte.
    Wichtig ist das die 418 USD, HUI 170 halten, der Rest ergibt sich automatisch.


    Gruss,

    Nun ja, das ist das Schicksal der Rufer in der Wüste - great beaches but no ocean.


    Clive Maund scheint etwas verwirrt und lässt jeden outcome zu. Good strategy for a guy who has been wrong once too often...


    OK, das war nicht ganz ernst gemeint, doch bleibe ich bei Ian Notely, der bis in die erste Juni Woche noch Probleme sieht - dann jedoch take-off!


    Die SM's BM's sind mehr als prekär. Ich würde keinen Pfifferling setzen - und da ich beinahe voll in Junior Golds investiert bin schaue ich nur nach weiteren Grand Canyon Idiotien.


    IMR ist ein solcher. Weitere 50Moz werden zur Resource per Juni dazukommen and still MILES TO GO! Die boys werden nach NY Gold Show in London, Genf, Zurich und Paris sein ... can't await the fireworks...


    Have fun and keep the faith - mein bester Alleinunterhalter - Cheers frr

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A