Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    @eldo


    Hast schon recht und eben darum.Alle positiv für Dollar = Anstiegspotential für Dollar begrenzt.
    Alle negativ für Gold = Abwärtspotential für Gold begrenzt.
    Die momentane Konstellation ist marktpsychologisch ein optimaler Einstiegszeitpunkt für einen antizyklischen Investor mit ein bisschen Geduld. Nach Bereinigung der Übertreibungen in beide Fällen werden sich die Fundamentals wieder durchsetzen und dann gehts ab im 2. Halbjahr. Meiner Meinung nach wird der Dollar dann bis an die 1,5 gegenüber dem Euro fallen und Gold in Richtung 500US$/Oz. steigen.
    Noch kann ich keine grundsätzlich geänderten Rahmenbdingungen Umstände erkennen die diese Entwicklung verhindern könnten.


    Grüsse

    VANCOUVER, British Columbia, May 15 (Reuters) - The Rolling Stones' smash hit "(I can't get no) Satisfaction" may be on the lips of many Bay Street gold stock investors and not only because the legendary rockers announced this past week that they'll play in Toronto in September.
    Unlike the seemingly ageless and fit-looking rock stars, gold shares listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange appear decidedly haggard, having lost on average 18 percent of their value so far this year.


    And, if some analysts are right, the bleeding isn't over.



    Gold really needs to break to a new high to convince people that the rally is still alive -- that there's going to be enough move at the (miners') revenue line to overcome all the problems we know are taking place at the cost line," said Victor Flores, gold analyst at HSBC Securities in New York.
    But if his industry colleagues at Merrill Lynch are right, the price could get worse before it gets better.


    According to the investment bank, the gold price and gold equities have fallen in the late spring to mid-summer almost every year since 1989 because of seasonal factors, including the end of the jewelry-gobbling wedding season in India and as European fabricators let gold stocks run down.


    "Bullion could decline to $410 an ounce by July," Merrill and others cautioned in a report last week. But it sees the dip as short-lived and is still targeting a $440 average in 2005.
    The biggest driver of bullion's run-up in the current cycle is weakness in the U.S. dollar, as a softer dollar makes the precious metal cheaper to buy in other currencies.


    But the greenback hasn't fallen as much as many expected and even Murenbeeld, well known in the gold industry for his gold price forecasts and a self-proclaimed "dollar bear", has lowered his predictions.


    Bullion was stuck near three-month lows of $419 an ounce on Friday, weighed down by a rise in the greenback after surprisingly strong U.S. economic data. The Toronto Stock Exchange gold index fell 8 percent over the past week, helping to depress the overall market 2.5 percent to 9,278.45.


    Some industry players have blamed gold share weakness on the launch of new bullion investment products, called exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that give investors an avenue other than stocks for getting exposure to the gold price.


    But others like HSBC's Flores said ETFs only trade a slim one to two million contracts a day. "That is not enough volume to account for the death and destruction that we have seen in the gold equities," Flores said.


    For the next few months, investors may find it more lucrative trading in Rolling Stones tickets than gold shares. 8o

    There has been no real strong selling or panic, just a complete dearth of buying power. The latter is usually a contrariarian indicator...buy when no one else wants to. Timing is the big wild-card here. A break-down of bullion can lead to real selling. If the buyers don't step in then things have the "potential" to get ugly very quickly. :(


    Things are oversold...but not that oversold. :))


    It is important to remind oneself that in the currency market, even small "bounces" can be multi-month, indeed multi-year affairs. :(




    Trading thoughts. ?(


    Let me start with a definition. To me an investor is a speculator who deeply regrets not having used stops and is now holding on to large paper losses. :(


    The most bullish thing that can happen is for bullion to have a strong snap-back rally back over 427 USD. I think that would be a good entry, with a point slightly above the trend-line becoming your stop. (I think if it breaks the trend-line it is becasue gold is taking a swan dive)


    In other words I have changed my mind from last week. My stops would not be "reasonable"...they would be anal.


    I would buy only on some kind of resistance metric being taken out on the hope you are catching a break-out.


    A bullion move down to support at 415 which results in a snap-back is much tougher to call. It could be a true inflection point, or we could simply be bouncing back to the trend-line to confirm that what once was support is now resistance.


    The prior and continuing underperformance of equities puts a pall on the whole sector. For myself I still have zero exposure to golds. My overall thoughts are to stand aside until I see bullion at a nice discount to its 200 dma (very oversold) or until I seem some resistance barriers being taken out.


    Bottom picking without the benifits of market depth information is really shooting in the dark.



    Good trading, ......GUYS ;)


    Here is Alan who lost his glasses..... :D


    .....http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-…?Action=Story&Command=621

    THE FINAL FLUSH X(OUT.....


    Die einzigen die sich halten sind die Suedaffen Minen, ich glaube der Boden ist nun erreicht ... Gold ueber 418 ist gut, aber der HUI weiter am fallen ist bedenklich. .
    .... Is it a bluff or is it real ???


    ..........



    afm


    I think the dollar strenghts came also because they had cool numbers :D out of the US and also thought the Chinese will follow the the command of the yankees,...(see Hainan US Spy Plane), :D.. the chinese will never surrrender and lose their face to the Americans and they just do business with them til they will hit them badly and give them what they deserve. (Fiat Dollars)


    As soon as they can they will screw them with Fiat Dollars and Bonds for tangibles . :D....



    Anyway,right now its a disaster for Goldbugs or a huge buying, or entry ,into gold chance of the century,.. I would love to have :P ,.....still don't forget ....... 8o



    do not buy and hope just because many think that gold can only go higher. Be defensive and you will not have to suffer :(
    two crashes within a decade which is highly likely at this point. Some may argue that gold stocks are in a correction, not a crash. Call it whatever you want, the fact remains that $HUI has now lost 35%, that is the same as if the Dow was at 6500; headlines all over the world would be screaming crash, 8o........
    unfortunately, gold stock investors are suffering in silence. :( :( :(


    Petersilie oder Petzis hatten kurzfristig recht,aber nur kurzfristig ..IMHO !


    Tough times we are going through, Grrrr !!!


    Hang in or Quit, the battle is still on for another few days.



    Good luck, ... what ever , its a major attack of the dark side (PPT) against Gold which will end soon, D day is the 19th for me,. "the final big battle.
    USD/Index against Gold"",418>427 USD.. > 170 HUI... IMHO


    Or 418> 410 ?? , we'll see !!.


    Parsley said 410, I doubt it.


    If it happens, I'm out of here for good.


    Salute, keep the faith !!! ;)


    ....The USD/Index is running out of steam in my opinion.


    The sun will shine again for gold,sooner or later, that's what I believe in.


    You got to believe in something, or you better die or surrender, Amigos.


    Vivir !


    Eldorado 8)


    You may think I'm nuts, ?(....... I give a damn, I'm me, I'm free ! ;)

    Hands off China's Monetary Policy


    By Tim Wood
    16 May 2005 at 05:47 PM EDT



    NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- China in 2005 sounds a whole lot like Japan a decade earlier except the fracas this time is over monetary rather than trade policy. The value of the Chinese yuan, also known as the renminbi, has become critical to commodity fundamentals as well as equity valuations for companies targeted by China for acquisition.


    China’s Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, has made it clear that the value of the renminbi will be dictated by domestic requirements, not foreign pressure. However, Wen also reaffirmed the commitment to liberalizing the foreign exchange regime in time. :D

    Given Wen’s statement, Mitsui Global Precious Metals made a timely call against prospects for revaluation. Analyst Andy Smith noted last Friday that there was no reason to change the peg which has worked well for China from any perspective.


    http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=9775

    Astro for a change,vielleicht nur ein Geruecht ?



    On Tuesday, May 17, the traditionally very positive and harmonious trine of Venus-Jupiter takes place. One would think this would have a buoyant effect upon the stock markets of the world that day, or the day before. But the next day, May 18, Venus will square Uranus, which could reverse the positive impact very quickly. However, both of these signatures are relatively weak historically in comparison to the Mars-Uranus conjunction of May 15 in regards to market reversals. They are also relatively weak in comparison to the Neptune retrograde event, which takes place on May 19. This later event has a huge 86% historical correlation to primary or greater cycles in U.S. equities within 10 trading days. The fact that the two Venus signatures occur between these two Level signatures may mean we see a sharp reversal in between May 15-19, making it appear the Venus signatures were perhaps more important than they usually are. In any event, traders should prepare for a fascinating week, and one that might coincide with a sharp price reversal in many markets, such as crude oil, precious metals, and even stocks.


    DEEP IMPACT....

    afm


    Weil es so schön zu dem Friedmann Zitat passt.
    Ich bin gerade am Suchen, was ich mal geschrieben habe.


    Am21.02.05 im Thread Börse und Astrologie schrieb ich:


    Auf jeder US-Note steht folgender Satz:
    "This note is legal tender for all debts public and private."
    Was soviel heißt wie: Diese banknote ist gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel für alle öffentlichen und privaten Schulden.
    Das bedeutet. Wenn man jemandem Geld schuldet und er will den $
    nicht annehmen, kann man die Schuld für wertlos erklären und sich vertschüssen.
    Das haben die USA schon verinnerlicht.
    Man sollte es vielleicht einmal den Asiaten flüstern.



    Grüße
    Tschonko

    Mr. Sinclair:


    I view the following statement as THE critical timing component of this gold bull market.


    "Nothing has become as important as the TIC figures in terms of their impact on the US Trade Deficit. The reason for this is that the TIC provides an indication of the ability of the US to continue to finance itself from international sources. Should the TIC figure fall below the US Trade Deficit numbers then the market will be on a razor's edge waiting to see the following month's figures. Both sides of the question will begin to speculate on how this will play out. That could well be gold at $480 and the USDX at say, .7800. Should the second month confirm the TIC is trending below the Trade Deficit, then the dollar will encounter severe selling pressure and huge spin to hold it. That well could be .7600 on the USDX. If the spin fails for the third consecutive month, then all hell could break loose and one could expect .7200 on the USDX and gold at $518-$529."


    After the most recent TIC numbers were reported you commented, "Yesterday's trade report was pushed higher by booking India's aircraft purchases as consummated sales which resulted in almost the entire improvement in those figures. :D So there is a clear probability that we are now going to have to work with figures that are so massaged and so spun as to become almost meaningless except as one views them in the form of a trend that takes into consideration revisions of past figures that seem always to be of significance one way or the other. Not that this is new but it has become egregious in terms of the monthly reporting to the point that borders on a "Wag the Dog.""


    Having spent 20 years in "Corporate," I am well aware that the numbers can be made to reflect whatever management desires. Regardless of the "true" figures, will the "published" TIC numbers EVER be allowed to trend below the Trade Deficit? If so, under what circumstances would this be "permitted?"


    CIGA Francis


    Dear CIGA Francis:


    You can spin all you want but the cash flows or it does not to pay the Federal bills. Since the government has to finance itself regardless of what it says, three months of TIC below the US Trade Deficit and the dollar will be well below USDX .8000 - and gold will be headed, in my opinion, not only to $518-$529 but on its way to $1,650.


    This is true because the dislocations in the debt market and therefore the OTC derivative market will occur no matter how skewed the figures are. The cash flows into the Federal checking account or it simply does not! That is the simple mechanics as you do or you do not pay your bills and suffer the consequences..


    Regards,


    Jim

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