Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

@ Hpopth

Ja der Mond spielt irgenwie eine Rolle und wenn man bis zum Jahresende hinschaut gibt es einen Aufwaertstrend vom Anfang des Monats bis Mitte des Monats bis Ende des Jahres. Um die Monatsmitte ist der Trend dann wieder negativ so wie ich es einschaetze.Jedoch so 100% darauf verlassen kann man es auch nicht da Umstaende wie Katrina diesen Trend verfaelschen kann.Ist jedoch ein Markttrend da und die Zeit ist richtig dann passt alles wunderbar mit der Theorie.

Mfg

XAX

GOLD:

The special GOLD-EAGLE.com report forecast that gold should not really break the $435 per ounce zone. On a closing basis, the metal closed below that price for only a day and is now within a few dollars of the $460 - $465 area. SKC reported that this zone could temporarily act as resistance, before accelerating beyond $500. Still, $500 is a pittance compared to where gold is ultimately heading and the metal should close above that seemingly magic number by yearend.

The greater interest in this potentially resistant zone is the effect on gold and silver stock prices. The performance of the equities relative to the precious metals has not been inspiring in recent months. This runs counter to the relationship that the markets saw during the post-January 2002 period. SKC has argued that this change in relationship is likely due to the general stock market itself. In this context, SKC has drawn a parallel to the 1929 - 1932 period, when gold stocks followed the Dow, until divorcing in 1931. The precious metal stocks then (1931) accelerated dramatically higher, even as the Dow disintegrated.

After nice run-ups recently, several stocks pulled back and have returned toward the highs of the past few months. So, the relative performance has been weak over the period as a whole. So far, this has vindicated SKC's stance that one should be 50% invested in the equities, even while being fully invested in gold and silver. The recommendation remains to see what happens when the $460 - $465 area is achieved. While it will be noteworthy what the metals themselves do, it is the relationship to gold and silver that the stocks enjoy that will be of greatest interest, for stock investors.

I suspect that SKC's reporting and timing of the gold equity classes (large, mid and small cap) was at the top of the heap during the January 2002 - January 2004 period. However, one must be humble and confess that the stocks:metals relationship has dramatically changed. That relationship had been at the centre of correct timing. One must note that this time period, is clearly different.

DOLLAR:

There is little to add. Currency asset allocation should remain 50% gold, 25% Yen and 25% Swiss Franc. Gold is in a major secular bull market versus all currencies. When this is done, people will be quoting scriptures and Nostradamus, much more than market letter writers.

As far as recent fundamental changes that affect gold and the Dollar are concerned, please see the New York section above.

For new subscribers, please note that these reports do not focus on near term trading opportunities but, rather, asset allocation shifts and the timing for same. The management of currency relates to wealth management, preservation and enhancement. The post-January 2002 period has been most profitable (see Feb. 12, 2003 Special Report, "previous comments" folder) and the period ahead will be more of the same, versus the Dollar.

Compared to January 2002, the Yen has replaced the Euro as the most favoured fiat currency, while gold has become the cream that has risen to the top.

Sid Klein

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/klein091205.html

Ich habe es gerochen, siehe oben, der PPT haut vor Opening schon mal drauf:

Oder wenn der Friseur oder Nachbar dir erzaehlt welche Goldaktien man kaufen sollte.

Edelman

Das habe ich auch gesehen und gelacht welcher Jojo das ist.
Wird ein Katz und Maus Spiel heute, ich schau spaeter nach.

Mfg

XAX

@ Aladin,

Der Rückgang kommt diesesmal schon vor dem Vollmond, der ja erst am 17.09.ist oder?

Gruss hpoth

Stimmt Hpopth, der ist am 17/18 September, verfolgen wir mal die Sache weiter wie tief Gold fallen wird. Wenn du Dir Merrimar oben anschaust ist eine Korrektur diese Woche ansich ganz gut vor dem 1. Oktober.
""If they stay strong as we enter the Mars retrograde period", then there is a chance we will see sharp 8-12 week decline from this high, and then resume the bull market again. But it is not just Gold prices that are vulnerable to a complete trend reversal during Mars retrograde. The currencies can do the same thing. So be ready.

Unser Crystalball hat ja auch geschwafelt das Gold an der dritten Woche im September faellt.

Von mir aus soll die schnelle Korrektur jetzt schon kommen wenn sie kommen muss, danach waere sie viel schlimmer mit Mars Position dabei wenn bis zum 1.Oktober Gold ein neue Hoch hat dieses Jahr. So faellt es nun bis Ende September, aber dann passiert das Gegenteil bis zum 10 Dezember. :))

Die Medien verharmlosen nun Katrina und Oil bis es so hell wird wie der Vollmond selbst .

Wenn etwas am meisten in die Luft schiesst wird es Silber sein dass den groessten Druck bekommen hat und mit dem USD Index wenig zu tun hat. Der Markt sollte sich bald drehen und Silberaktien sind immer noch sehr preiswert IMO.

Meine Kauforders werden gueltig in einer Stunde, es wird einige schwache Haende geben im Moment die wieder abladen und rennen wie die Hasen weil sie glauben der Bullrun ist over.

Mfg

XAX

And keep on smiling whatever happens.

UPDATE 1-Venezuela reviews state control of inactive mines
Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:42 AM ET

Recasts; adds comments, changes Crystallex start estimates)
By Patrick Markey

CARACAS, Venezuela, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Venezuela is reviewing taking control of inactive gold and diamond mines operated by private foreign and local companies and rescinding their contracts and concessions, a top mining official said.

Basic Industries and Mines Minister Victor Alvarez did not name any specific companies. But his remarks came as the leftist government of President Hugo Chavez campaigns against oil and mining deals he says are "stealing" Venezuela's natural resources by giving preferential terms to foreign partners.

"These transnationals stay inactive on purpose to improve their shares on the stock market," Alvarez said in a press statement.

"This forces us to evaluate the nation's interest and the need to cancel concessions, rescind contracts and suspend permit applications in cases where they have not been correctly processed, so that all this can pass into the hands of a 100 percent state company," he said.

Officials from the ministry and the state-run Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana, or CVG, did not return calls seeking more details on Alvarez's remarks.

Venezuela, the world's No. 5 oil exporter, operates gold and diamond mines in its southern Bolivar state. Several foreign and local private companies operate mining contracts with CVG.

Alvarez made his comments after small miners blocked roads and clashed with troops last week in protests for more concessions in Bolivar state. The government is currently trying to transfer small miners away from the Caroni River, where much of the country's hydro-electricity is generated.

The minister said conflicts in the mining sector can only be resolved by defeating mine "latifundios" -- the Spanish word for idle rural estates.

Chavez, a populist former soldier who has vowed to fight poverty, has made land reform and redistribution of "latifundios" the cornerstone of his self-proclaimed socialist revolution. Ranching associations and opposition leaders say his land campaign is threatening private property.

Alvarez said the government planned to create a state mining company similar to Venezuela's PDVSA state oil company, which recently has moved to review contracts and operating deals with foreign petroleum companies.

"Defeating latifundios in the mine sector will mean reclaiming national sovereignty over gold and diamond resources," Alvarez said in the statement.

"Inactivity in gold and mining reserves represents one of the principal causes for unemployment among small miners," he said.

Among major foreign companies mining in Venezuela are Canada's Crystallex (KRY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , Bolivar Gold (BGC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) , U.S. firm Hecla (HL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and China's Shandong Gold (600547.S: Quote, Profile, Research) . Hecla is the country's largest and most active gold producer.
Crystallex said it expects to start producing at the huge Las Cristinas gold mine in Bolivar 16 months after the government clears its environmental permit.

Last week local Crystallex officials estimated start-up at 22 months after permit authorization.

Shares of Toronto-based Crystallex have been hurt by delays in the permit process, but the company says authorities are in the final stages of approving the license, which was originally due to be issued in June.

The current position for gold is long with a current sell price of 450.31. The current trend of Gold is bullish with the Alpha Trend trending up. Friday's closing price is 1.8719 percent above the Alpha Trend Support price of 441.7312. The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up. Friday's closing price is 4.9046 percent above the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend support price of 428.90. For the last few days Gold has been approaching the upper band of the 1st Alpha Trend Wave resistance price of $452.12. The 1st Alpha Trend Wave is rolling over if Gold can not break through this resistance price we should see a pullback to the Alpha Trend support price of 441.70.

The current position for Gold is long and the current trend for Gold is bullish. The Alpha Trend is trending up with Friday's closing price 4.6451 percent the Alpha Trend Support price of 430.0247. The one year moving average of the Alpha Trend is trending up with Friday's closing price 6.6401 percent above the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend support price of 421.9800. On the weekly chart Gold is approaching the 1st Alpha Trend Wave resistance price of 452.225. Just as on the daily chart Gold should be topping out at this resistance price and Gold should pullback to the Alpha Trend support price 430.00. On the weekly chart gold has held above the one year moving average of the Alpha Trend since mid - August of 2001. This trend line is a major support line currently at 421.98. If Gold is topping out and the Alpha Trend doesn't hold Gold should hold above 421.98 support price.

more....
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/soltes/soltes091305.html

Ist es das was der Guru meint, Gold steigt erst richtig ab Juni/Juli 2006 ?

The monthly gold chart from 2001 to 2005 shows a wave count that indicates the top was made at $433 and not $458. According to this interpretation, gold has been undergoing an irregular flat correction ever since the top at $433 .This three year cycle began in April 2001at approximately $255 and was complete in April 2004 at approximately $433. If this interpretation is correct, the eventual bottom is due substantially below the recent bottom of $411. According to the long term Delta turning point, a bottom is due in February 2006 with a standard deviation all the way out to July 2006. This potential bottom will most likely break the long term rising trend line. This interpretation is heresy to most gold bugs. If the comments I have received from non subscribers are any indication, it is double heresy!

Is it possible we could bottom in July or August of 2006? Yes, because there is a Long Term Delta # 4 that may bottom all the way out to July 2006. Could we possibly top in January 2010? Yes, because there is a Long Term Delta # 4 due in February 2010.

Check this out.....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen091305.html

Edel Man

Muessen wohl einige Aberglaeubische gewesen sein die gestern abgesprungen sind am 13. September. Du hast schon Recht es gibt so viele Theorien und Gurus die alles moegliche sagen und deuten und meistens kommt es anders als man denkt. Mich haette es nur interessiert ob es da eine Verbindung bzw. Quelle gibt die Guru M benutzt die er umwandelt in Wave of Nature. Wenn jedoch Astrologie und Elliot im Einklang sind dann sollte man zumindest Kenntniss davon nehmen und sich trotzdem nicht aus der Ruhe bringen lassen als Langzeitanleger. Das Traden kostet Geld und Nerven, rein und raus ist hektisch und bringt nicht viel da oft der Zug schon abgefahren ist.
Wenn und aber sagen viele hinterher.

Have a nice day

XAX

Riding the bull ain't easy:
So Just like riding a Brahma Bull, grab, grab hold of your positions and hang on for dear life and make sure that, that Golden Bull doesn't buck you off......... ( a good read)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin091305.html

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Gold - We began the week in a fairly overbought condition technically while the U.S. dollar was oversold. Sure enough, gold pulled back and the dollar bounced. This is actually healthy for those of us who don't live and breath gold's every tick up and down.

I've said it over and over again but it's always worth repeating - the longer we move sideways to up (we've made three succeeding higher lows in 2005), the bigger the base we'll have to challenge and surpass $500. Don't lose sight that the gold market has never managed to stay above $500 for any real length of time. Therefore, a solid base above $400 should give it the foundation necessary to break this ultimate resistance.

News that global demand for gold jewelry reached a record $38 billion in the year ending this past June (according to the World Gold Council), bodes well for those of us who continue to be impressed by the strong physical demand. I can't emphasize enough how different this bull run has been from those in the 1990s and before. Back then, the paper market (Comex) would continue to rise but physical buying of gold dried up. This would eventually limit the rally and cause sharp sell-offs that lasted for many months. Now, any sharp sell-off is almost immediately met with strong physical buying and before we know it, the lost has been more than made up.

Silver - "The poor man's gold" continues to play second fiddle to its namesake and while it can have its own moments in the sun, it will continue to need a higher gold price to help lift it up.

http://www.321gold.com/editori…ndich/grandich091405.html