Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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    Doug Casey at his best !
    Ein Muß für jeden PM - und Rohstoff - Fan ;)


    Grüsse
    ******************************************************


    The Great Resource Bull Markets, Then and Now
    by Doug Casey


    There is an old saying: to look into the future, you must first look to the past. A more Darwinian interpretation of this maxim is that those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. In that context, studying the last great resource bull market may provide useful insights into the current unfolding commodities bull market.


    A quick refresher: the period, roughly from late 1971 to early 1980, saw, among other things, gold rise 2,390%, silver 3,487% and crude oil 1153%. Naturally, a number of geopolitical and economic factors contributed to these gains. In an attempt to add some structure to this exercise, I’ll use the 7 Ps, my trademark template for sound investments, to compare the resource sector of the 1970s to that of today.



    People


    In 1970, "mining" wasn’t the dirty word it has become in today’s politically correct world. Back then, getting a degree in geology or mining engineering was a perfectly acceptable career move, and such training could be had at any number of prestigious universities. Today, save-the-environment studies are many students’ first choice, while geology programs have been partly, or, more frequently, entirely shut down. As a consequence, far more geos are retiring than graduating. You can see this at any mining convention: it’s a sea of gray hair, or no hair at all. This may be bad for mining companies, but it can be positive for investors: the dearth of experienced exploration geologists and mining pros limits discoveries of new deposits and keeps supplies tight. It also makes it easier for us to identify promising companies; they’re the ones attracting the best talent. These professionals write their own tickets in the current market, and therefore gravitate to the most prospective ventures. (For news on the most successful of these exceptional individuals, see our new Explorers’ League.



    Politics


    In August 1971, after years of Johnson’s "guns and butter" policy and its consequent inflation, Nixon unleashed the price of gold. Nixon’s move had nothing to do with promoting free markets, about which he couldn’t have cared less—as demonstrated by his simultaneous implementation of idiotic wage and price controls. De-pegging the gold price was really about defrauding the Europeans, who kept trading increasingly worthless American currency for gold at $35. In a classic case of unintended consequences, the dollar lost ground against gold further and faster than Nixon ever dreamed possible.


    The ‘70s also saw escalating costs of the Vietnam War, the OPEC oil embargo in response to U.S. meddling in the Middle East, generally underpriced commodity markets, and large government deficits. All of these have even more serious counterparts today.


    For example, we have a "hedonically adjusted" (which is to say, arbitrarily adjusted or politically corrected) U.S. inflation rate that has officially remained relatively low, but which many observers, myself included, suspect is actually much higher. And of course, we have the Forever War on terror, a wholehearted entanglement in the Middle East and threats to the crude oil supply from Iraq (and, in time, probably from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela as well)—all unintended consequences of the most bellicose U.S. foreign policy since Teddy Roosevelt, and maybe in history.


    Given that the same kinds of moronic domestic and foreign policies at large in the 1970s are at work today, we have good reason to think prices will take off like they did three decades ago, starting from a similar low base.



    Property


    That low base in “property” is important. Many people think commodity prices are higher now, but in inflation-adjusted dollars many key commodities are actually cheaper than they were before the last great commodities bull market peaked. For example, the current “record high” crude oil price of $68 is only $31.63 in 1981 dollars, when oil peaked at C$38.34. Gold, at $440, is only $185.55 in 1980 dollars, when gold peaked at $850. In fact, at $440 in 2005 dollars, gold is actually lower than it has been in 30 years :]… save for the 2000-2003 period when it bottomed. At $1.73, copper today is at about half of the 1980 peak of $1.44. This doesn’t mean prices can’t temporarily go lower—for the short-term, given my overall pessimism about the U.S. economy, I’m particularly concerned about base metals—but it does paint a bullish picture for commodities for years to come.


    Supporting this view is the fact that there have been no giant oil discoveries for 20 years, and discoveries of large mineral deposits are becoming similarly scarce, particularly for precious metals. This begs the question: are we seeing a Peak Oil-type phenomenon developing in minerals?


    An 80-page report released by JP Morgan on January 24, 2005 projects falling gold production in South Africa and North America this year and states: "We believe that the larger driver for gold prices is the coming decline in gold production." This growing supply crunch, coupled with increased demand from both institutional and individual investors, could be the catalyst that takes gold over $500 this year. Of course, the companies we are following in the International Speculator . that actually have resources in the ground—or are good at finding them—will rise by multiples of any gains made by these commodities themselves.


    On the other hand, the collapse of the Soviet Empire and the opening of the Third World have made vast areas of the world available to new exploration. We also have new exploration and production technologies that simply didn’t exist back in 1970 (to name two: using satellites to spot mineralization and using heap leaching to extract it inexpensively). Then there’s China—communists in name, but capitalists in practice. I don’t doubt that China has great geological potential, and we are currently following one particularly undervalued Canadian junior with a large gold deposit in that country, but I won’t get overly excited about China as a home for my mineral investments until a fairly steady flow of Chinese projects begin making it through the minefield of local regulation.


    At the right commodity prices, there is literally an infinite amount of mineral wealth out there. But mines are not like a McDonald’s that you can knock together in a few weeks on any given street corner. A typical exploration cycle—the time it takes to find and evaluate a mineral deposit—is about two years. If a property appears economic, then the company has to engage in a lengthy and bureaucratic permitting process (ensuring there are no semi-rare salamanders in the area, for example). They also have to do the extensive and expensive drilling and mine plan analysis required to complete a bankable feasibility study, as well as raise the small mountain of cash necessary to keep the process moving along.


    The bottom line is that it takes a long time to bring a mine into production, which means that for many metals, supply is relatively, if not absolutely, inelastic.



    The Demand Picture


    Of course, for prices to rise in real terms, demand has to outstrip supply. On the supply side, the situation looks extremely bullish for silver, copper, nickel and gold—significant new mine production of these metals is unlikely to be realized in the near term. But will demand continue to rise? As long-time readers know, I believe commodities are ultimately trending toward zero (once nanotechnology and other major new technologies live up to their potential), but we’re a long way from there.


    At this stage of the super-cycle, more people have access to markets than ever before, increasing their standards of living and therefore increasing their demand for resources. Starvation was a common phenomenon in the '70s; now former basket cases such as China and India are emerging as world economic powerhouses. Such developments never go smoothly, of course, and I’m concerned by the possibility of a cooling in the global economy affecting many things—base metals in particular. Long-term, however, the question is not "if" demand for commodities will grow, but, "How fast?"



    Phinancing and Paper


    A way to focus on the "paper" dimension of market conditions then and now is to look at how U.S. paper—Federal Reserve Notes—has fared. While inflationary policies and wasteful government programs dissipate wealth, they also tend to increase returns on commodities. While the U.S. government is busily manipulating the money supply, my guess is that inflation is not as far below the levels seen in the ‘70s—the highest inflation figures of the last half-century and a trigger for the commodities spikes of 1980—as the Bureau of Labors statistics would have us believe.


    Remember: cycles do repeat, but never exactly. The relatively low levels of inflation up to this point in the current cycle could mean we are in for a longer, less volatile run. Or they could mean that inflation is being masked by the U.S., not just through hedonic adjustments and other statistical sleights of hand, but also through the recent devaluation of the dollar. This, in essence, exports U.S. inflation to other countries. That could change—with a vengeance—if the foreigners holding trillions in expat dollars ever come to doubt the value of that paper (or, more accurately, to recognize its true value, which is zero).


    Devaluation of the U.S. dollar followed inflationary policies in the U.S. in the ‘70s. But this time around the dollar’s collapse has brought very little inflation, as measured by the CPI. If U.S. inflation is actually higher than reported and/or kicks in at higher rates due to dollars held overseas flooding home, the leverage to investments in precious metals companies working in the U.S. is likely to be spectacular. That’s because, as the dollar weakens and gold prices go up, companies with U.S. production will see their costs go down (in real terms) while their revenue improves. This is why I’m currently speculating on a several very prospective gold exploration juniors operating in Nevada—one of the world’s most pro-mining jurisdictions.


    It’s also useful to look at U.S. equities during the last resource bull market. Many people believe the Dow, the S&P 500, and equities in general "traded sideways" during the period, but they forget to take inflation into account; the DJIA actually dropped during the ‘70s, in real terms, as steeply as it rose during the ‘80s and ‘90s. Given the amount of money tied up in U.S. equities, even a modest flight of capital out of those markets and into resource stocks today would be like trying to squeeze Niagara Falls through a garden hose. It’s coming.



    Promotion


    The equivalent here would be the market’s mass psychology or zeitgeist. This is not something I can quantify in numbers, but it is clear that we have not yet reached the mania stage we had at the end of the 1970s, when barbers and bartenders were telling their patrons about the gold coins they’d just bought. Or, when people lined up around the block to sell their grandmother’s silver. My sense is that we are beyond the early, contrarian phase when speculators can get in on the best opportunities for next to nothing. More and more people are waking up to the coming boom in commodities, and people like Jim Rogers are writing books about it for mainstream consumption. With good promotion like that, I think it won’t be long before this market heats up to the mania stage and the high caliber gold and silver exploration and development companies we are following in the International Speculator . turn into moonshots.



    Price


    How high could gold and other commodities go in this cycle? Some people think I’m trying to be controversial when I talk about $1,000 gold, but to my mind, that’s a conservative estimate. ;)Reversing the then and now price comparisons shown earlier, gold’s peak at $850 in January of 1980 would correspond to $2,015.66 today. $50 silver then would be $118.57 silver today. $42 uranium then would be $99.60 now. $1.44 copper would be $3.41. And $38 crude would be $90.11. Recent price increases are, at most, only the beginning. Silver, in particular, is still near a long-term historic low.



    Conclusion


    At the beginning of the '70s bull market, we had just come through a long period of underinvestment in resources, post-depression, post-WWII. This was particularly true for gold, due to price controls. Today, the situation is eerily similar. The analogy includes, among other factors, a "guns and butter" mentality within the U.S. government that has the printing presses—weapons of mass devaluation—going flat-out around the clock, and the fact that we are coming out of a long period of under-investment in resources. Again, this is particularly so in gold, which hit near 25-year inflation-adjusted lows in 2001—a trend perhaps exacerbated by the misallocation of investment in the tech bubble.


    When considering the recent correction in precious metals, it’s worth remembering that there was a massive slump in the middle of the '70s, not just for the resource sector, but for all commodities and for the U.S. economy as a whole, including equities. This led to the highly inflationary "economic stimulus" policies of the late 1970s. One could certainly argue that these developments are similar to the low metals prices and bear market suffered by U.S. equities in 2001-2002 and the extremely loose Fed policies that followed.


    Having said that, while it is interesting to compare the cycles then and now, it is important not to try too hard to find a perfect match. This time around, we aren’t coming out of a long period where the price of gold was officially fixed (though, according to GATA.org, the price may still be suppressed by government policy). And today, we have massive creation of wealth in countries such as China and India.


    While only a guess, I suspect we are currently in about the 4th inning of the new resource bull market, a cycle that will surprise most investors with its strength and duration. However, the savvy investor should always remember that the market never runs out of surprises; there is no “sure thing”. As prices rise, the masses will tend to cut back and consume less, potentially just as operators are cranking up production (at least in those markets where they can). The market will go up, but it will also go down. Overall, though, I expect we’ll be looking at higher lows and higher highs for years to come.


    The best way to play this cycle is to buy good companies on the dips, recover your initial investments on bounces that give you a double, and then sit tight and be right ;). In time, when commodities take off to the moon and Business Week starts running front-page stories about the great resource boom, we at Casey Research will be looking to make an orderly exit and move on to what’s next.
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    Friday, September 09, 2005, 12:31:00 PM EST


    WHY WE HAVE LIKED - AND CONTINUE TO LIKE - OIL AND GOLD :))


    Author: Monty Guild


    Several years ago, we became bullish on energy and precious metals for our clients. Our bullishness was a creature of long term economic and social events, which will continue to affect the world for at least one generation and probably longer.


    The most important event is the entry of about one billion new people into the developed world's economic system. On top of the generational trend, there are shorter-term trends as well. They may be connected to the election cycle in a country or to seasonal or other cycles, which are a function of local events within an individual country (i.e. changes of government, wars, political instability).


    We did not become bullish on energy because of terrorism and Middle-East tension, although it is a secondary reason to see oil and gold go higher.


    There are six billion people on earth and about one billion live in the parts of the world with somewhat developed economies. They live in Europe, Canada, U.S., Japan and small parts of Asia, South America and Africa.


    We became bullish on oil and gold because several years ago we saw that two major population blocks were joining the world economic system. We began to ask how they would make themselves felt. If they were to add 40% of their population to the world economic system - that is, if China and India were successful in lifting only 40% of their people out of subsistence economics into the world economic system - the size of the system would double in a generation.


    If in twenty years the number of individuals participating in the industrialized world doubled, it would take a 4%+ compounded growth rate for the entire world economy to accommodate that growth. The world economic system would grow at 10% in some sectors and at 1% in others. China and India have been growing at about 9% and 7% respectively.


    We saw two possible avenues for their expression in the world economy and concluded the growth would cause big changes in the way the world used resources and held its wealth:


    1. The Southeast countries would collect and use raw materials, especially energy and industrial minerals (i.e. iron ore, coal, copper etc.). In order to create an economic base, raw materials, labor, capital and technological know-how were necessary. These countries had labor in excess, they had technological know-how, and the developed world was happy to give them capital. What they needed was raw materials to build the economic system.


    2. Once assets were acquired as a result of creating and selling products and services, they would acquire gold and strong currencies to hold their accumulated assets. They would acquire gold and other precious metals as a store of value to protect their newly acquired wealth. We must remember that India has a history of thousands of years of holding their wealth in the form of gold jewelry and gold bullion.


    INDIA AND CHINA VIEW GOLD AS A DESIREABLE ASSET :]
    Accumulated wealth can be reinvested in the country. It can also be hoarded to protect a family's assets or it can be invested for interest. The demand for gold is both for hoarding and for investment. Gold pays no interest, but if it is rising versus, say, the U.S. dollar at 10%, it is better than collecting 4% interest in U.S. dollar bonds.


    The weakness in the dollar over the last few years, and the policies of the U.S. government, have caused China and India to hold a larger proportion of their hoarding and income earning assets in gold and other currencies, and less in U.S. dollars.


    These people are very intelligent and their long history has taught them to count on the family, rather than the government for good advice on how to hold on to your assets. They prefer something portable that cannot be debased, manipulated and easily confiscated. Gold represents this type of asset. As their assets grow, their demand for gold grows.


    WHY INVESTORS AND SPECULATORS SHIFT BETWEEN GOLD AND CURRENCIES


    In our opinion, in the short run, currency speculators look at real interest rate differentials between competing currencies. In the intermediate period, they look at balance of trade figures. In the long run, GDP growth rates and budget deficit figures are of concern.


    In the case of the U.S. dollar, none of these figures look good. If you monitor these statistics,you know the U.S. dollar and many foreign currencies are not the place to hold assets. Gold is the place. As wealth increases in China and India, we expect a bigger and bigger percentage of assets to be held in gold.


    HOW LONG WILL GOLD AND OIL DEMAND RISE?


    How industrialized are China and India?


    We estimate that about 5 -10% of people in these countries may be approaching middle class living standards. Their objective is 40%. They have a long way to go, and as long as they want to grow, they will consume energy and industrial minerals and they will hold gold and non-U.S. currencies for their savings.


    *********************************************
    Anmerkung:
    Monty Guild ist ein langjähriger Freund von Jim Sinclair.


    Grüsse

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    Diese Kurzmeldung bestätigt M.Guild:
    Erhöhung der Goldreserven : Dollarreserven= 10:1 !!


    Grüsse
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
    India`s forex reserves up by USD 1.7 billion


    Source: IRIS (10 September 2005)
    India`s foreign exchange reserves rose by US dollar 1.7 billion during the week ended September 2, 2005. The forex reserves stood at USD 1,45,555 million, according to Reserve Bank of India`s weekly statistical supplement released here today, reports PTI.


    Foreign currency assets also increased by USD 1,560 to USD 1,39,559 million as on September 2, RBI said.


    The rise in inflows is primarily due to revaluation of non-US foreign currencies such as Euro, Sterling and Yen, analysts said.


    While gold reserves increased by USD 140 million to USD 4,535, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remained static at USD four million, it said.


    The country`s reserve tranche position increased by USD 14 million to 1,457 million dollars, it said.

    Unsere Freunde aus Kulmbach melden sich zu Wort:


    Gold haussiert wieder mit Ziel $500
    Es sieht alles danach aus, daß die Goldkontrakte zum siebten Mal in Folge ihre Tagessitzungen mit einem Gewinn beenden werden. Im Schnitt liegen sie aktuell rund 1 % höher als vor Wochenfrist. John Person vom National Futures Advisory Service prognostiziert, daß der Goldpreis binnen Jahresfrist weitere 10 % zulegen wird, sofern die Wirtschaft weiterhin robustes Momentum zeigen wird. Zum Jahresende sieht Person damit den Preis des Edelmetalls bei rund 500 Dollar pro Unze. Zuletzt notierte der Dezember-Kontrakt bei 453,10 Dollar (+$2,40).
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    Baltimore, Maryland


    September 10-11, 2005


    by Dan Denning


    ---------------------


    MARKET REVIEW: A HEDGE AGAINST HARD TIMES


    One would hardly expect to get a history lesson in Las Vegas. But, of course, little gems and nuggets of wisdom were liberally dispersed here at the gold and precious metals conference that took place at the Mirage this week.


    One of the high points of the conference for me was the panel discussion with some of my favorite resource gurus, "Asset-Based Investing; A Hedge Against Hard Times. The panel was moderated by Al Korelin from the Korelin Economics Report, and joining him were Doug Casey, Rick Rule, Bart Kitner from Kitco.com, and Pamela Aden.


    There were a lot of familiar arguments for gold, namely, as Pamela Aden put it, gold is the "ultimate currency."


    "For gold to be the ultimate currency," she went on, "it has to be the strongest currency." Pam looks for a gold to make a new high about $456 by this time next year.


    "But was Katrina bullish for gold?" Al Korelin asked.


    "Yes," Doug answered.


    "The war against Islam is going to go very badly. What makes you think these people can run a war on the other side of the world when they can't even get to New Orleans?"


    Understated as always, Doug pointed out that to the extent that the government response to Katrina (local, state, and Federal) was botched, it would not exactly inspire confidence in the United States.


    "And confidence," Doug continued, "is the only thing standing behind the dollar in a fiat currency world. Watching what happened in New Orleans can only decrease the value of the dollar."


    All of the panelists agreed that what's bad for the dollar is good for gold. But they did not entirely agree on the best way to own gold for those investors who've yet to begin hedging against what Doug calls the "unbacked liability of a bankrupt government."


    "All investors should own some bullion," Bart Kitner said. "But be aware that bullion doesn't give you an leverage. If gold goes up $5, you're up $5. If you own gold shares, then you've got some leverage."


    "Start with bullion," Rick suggested, "And if you're not a speculator, stop with bullion. You want to buy junior resource stocks in a bear market. You don't want to buy them in a bull market, after 80% of the crowd is already in. But if you're going to buy at all, buy the hoarders and prospectors."


    "What I mean by that," Rick elaborated, "is buy the companies run by guys who aren't going to go mine all their gold now and leave themselves with a big hole in the ground."


    "I like what Warren Buffet said," Doug added. "Put all your eggs in one basket...and watch that basket. Of course, that won't do you any good if the bottom falls out of your basket. But in a bull market like the one I think we're going to see, you want to put as much sail to the wind as you can. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity to take a kick at the cat."


    "And don't forget cash," Rick Rule added. "Cash is good for the nerves."


    Regards,


    Dan Denning
    for The Daily Reckoning

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    Aus dem Beitrag von Waltzeck / Financial Sense University


    Immer wieder faszinierend!
    "It´s a long way............."

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    Sunday, September 11, 2005, 1:23:00 PM EST


    News Briefs


    Author: Jim Sinclair


    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary:

    You listen to the spin, the talking heads, mindless banter on chat lines, and also to the bone throwers and stargazers - but you are ignorant of the masters who speak the truth.

    Please read the article below because the warnings are everywhere if you are willing to listen. Blaming all economic imbalances now and to come on a hurricane will not offset the upward momentum we are going to see in the Federal Budget and Current Account deficits. The amount of dollars about to enter the world market system is unprecedented in the annals of monetary history. The dollar will simply not hold its present value in the face of overwhelming supply that will be created out of thin air by the Federal Reserve and Bernanke Electronic Money Printing Press.

    Trade gold if you will but be warned: Those that think they can trade for insurance are as mad as hatters. ?(


    Danger signs of global crisis
    By HARDEV KAUR


    Author and member of former President Ronald Reagan’s administration Clyde Prestowitz says the United States is "being completely irresponsible" with its growing budget deficit, which spells a crisis bigger than the Great Depression, unless it takes charge. HARDEV KAUR writes. "I AM less worried about Malaysia than the US," Clyde Prestowitz, author of Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East said.


    The US, the world’s greatest consumer, the world’s largest economy and the only driver of world economic growth, "was being completely irresponsible" and endangering the world economy.


    Clyde, who was in Kuala Lumpur recently, suggested that perhaps America may consider "outsourcing management of the US economy to Asia".


    It is not as simple as blaming China, India and other Southeast Asian economies for the woes of the American economy. Prestowitz, who took a year to complete the book, points out that it involves the US government’s failure to develop and promote a clear industrial policy.


    It is time American administrators and policy makers woke up to the fact that the world has changed. What worked for the US previously will not work in the future. Washington must be prepared for a new world that is very competitive, aggressive and well educated.


    In the book, which covers China, India and Russia with a combined population of three billion pursuing market economies, he argues that these "new capitalists" will give Americans a new perspective and a run for their money.


    More...


    Jim Sinclair's Commentary:


    Where have you been Sir Richard?

    Richard Russell Comments:

    "You can be sure that the central banks don't want to see an upside breakout in gold. ... The primary trend of gold is bullish, however, and the primary trend is stronger than all the central banks in the world taken together. When gold's time comes, gold will brush by the manipulations of the central banks and their friends, the gold banks." ;)

    Dear Members,


    Astrologically time is not very good for another 16 hours so you will receive weekly newsletter before New York opens.

    I see tomorrow Dollar in little bit weak trend but from Tuesday a strong move will start.

    Very important time for metals ahead, next 48 hours will decide that gold is going to $500 or $400 first. :D

    Please wait for detail newsletter, sorry for delay as I never write in negative combination.

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    Aladin


    Danke für diese aufregenden Erleuchtungen von Crystalball! :D
    Über 400$ kann ich schon nicht mehr lachen.
    So ein Guru hats nicht leicht. :]


    Schau mal,was der Dauerpessimist J.Kern sagt.
    Hab das im Thread von GSP-Komet kommentiert.


    Grüsse

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    Fand diesen schönen Chart von Lars Lindgren bei J.Sinclair.


    Hab den auch im Thread "Dollar auf 61...." kommentiert.
    Nun bin ich mal gespannt , ob dieser gute Bekannte Recht hat oder unser lustiger Cristalball. ;)


    Man beachte das "sell-signal" im MACD.


    Grüsse

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Stelle nachfolgenden Beitrag aus meinem Thread "Silber,...." hier hinein,
    weil neben Silber auch Gold prognostizert wird. :]


    Silber-Zwischenziel 10 - 11$/OZ !

    Einer der interessantesten Charts der letzten Zeit!!!!


    Beachtlich das MACD - Dreieck, das nach Ausbruch schreit:

    Dear Members,


    For this week’s newsletter, I would like to start with a few important points which I have previously mentioned in the course of the last ten months, and which I now feel the need to revisit and discuss once again. As you keep them in mind, it will enable us plan our investments aptly.


    1. For 2005, I recommended alternative energy stocks, which we bought and made over 100% in returns, and which I shall still hold for the future. These stocks were – ENER, BLDP, DESC, PLUG, QTWW, MKTY, HYGS, MDTL, MCEL, SPIR, DSTI and SLRE. As a matter of fact, I still recommend this sector for long term investment. Furthermore, there are many other smaller companies in this sector, for instance – WWAT, SLRE, ENEI- and many others on which one can conduct detailed research and invest as appropriate.


    2. In addition, we had water related stocks as well as metals stocks as second in choice, and I still recommend the water stocks. All I can say about metal stocks for now is that due to astrological readings, I am not at all in their favour after 26 September. However, we should buy metal stocks from next year as their outlook will be much more favourable then.


    3. Once again, I would like to remind you a very important message that I have mentioned a few times in the last two months. This is to the effect that: “from second of September, all hot rising commodities would collapse” (Crude, Heating, unleaded natural gas, Copper and few other commodities). Well, I still hold this prediction and you will therefore do well to remember it before you go into buying positions. In the meantime, I shall update you if there are any short term rises.



    5. Most currency traders as well as key players and renowned fund managers are very closely watching my prediction of the dollar’s rise. The Dollar surprised every one in the first half of 2005 and it will be an interesting time when it makes a run like oil recently did. DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE DOLLAR. AS ALL WORLD CURRENCIES WILL HAVE TO YIELD TO IT. I CLEARLY SEE GOLD LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE US DOLLAR AS TIME FOR GOLD WILL BE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER, THE SITUATION IS SHARPLY DIFFERENT FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR WHEN JUPITER WILL TAKE OVER CONTROL OF THE DOLLAR. WHEN THAT OCCURS, “NO POWER ON EARTH WILL BE ABLE TO STOP GOLD TOUCHING $810 TO BEGIN WITH, THEN AFTERWARDS SOARING ABOVE $1000”


    For sometime now, some in the gold community have regarded me as being against gold, but that is not the case at all. The gold community has given me a lot of recognition, respect as well as love and I am sure that you can all understand my position that if there is something negative indicated to occur, then it is my duty to warn you. From next year, the scenario for gold is poised to be very bright; I shall write in gold, I shall speak only gold and I devote myself to gold. I feel a thrill even now and can’t wait to witness gold leaping $20 to $50 in a day.


    6. My favourite, silver, is very calm and it will remain thus. It is disconnecting from gold and once it confirms this, then it may not wait till next year to start rising. I am watching it closely and may give a buying signal anytime, even in 2005 once there is confirmation. In the meantime, we have got to wait and hear from the Moon.


    7. The US Stock market is playing a game of rises and falls within a range of 10700 to 10300. The fall of oil has given a physiological boost to market players and it looks as though for the time being, it may hang around this level before it collapses.


    IF I AM PROVEN CORRECT, IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MOVEMENTS OF US DOLLAR IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.


    WE NEED TO PRAY FOR THE USA AS NATURE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE COUNTRY. I SEE MORE NATURAL DISASTERS WAITING TO HIT AS WE HAVE TO PAY A PRICE FOR OUR BAD KARMA. WHETHER DONE KNOWINGLY OR UNKNOWINGLY, THE PRICE HAS TO BE PAID. THIS IS WHAT PRESIDENT BUSH DID WITH IRAQ, AND IF THE HEAD OF A FAMILY MAKES A MISTAKE, THEN THE WHOLE FAMILY SUFFERS. I DON’T WANT TO SAY MORE HERE AS SOME AGENCIES ARE WATCHING MY PREDICTIONS WITH GREAT INTEREST.


    THIS WEEK’S NEWSLETTER FOR 12 TO 16 SEPTEMBER:


    GOLD


    As may be apparent to those who have been following my work for a while, I always start my newsletter with gold. This is a clear sign of the esteem that I have for gold. It is trading around the very important mark of $451, and if its trades above this figure for the next 48 hours, then I shall give a short term buying signal and hold the buying recommendation for another fifteen days.


    MONDAY- gold may remain stable. If it doesn’t hold above $451, then don’t buy as yet- just stay away and watch while also carefully monitoring the moves of the US Dollar.


    I will write an alert on gold each alternate day like I did with oil to update you. If a rise comes in the next 48 hours, then it may reach $481 in the next two weeks. This week’s trend should be from $458.80 to $448.10. If its break $448.10 than get of from buying position.


    At the moment, I don’t want to recommend any thing at this level as I made mistakes a few times in the past due to excitement. WE WILL WATCH DOLLAR RISE.


    SILVER


    Once Venus changes houses, I may recommend buying in silver. Furthermore, it will be a good buy if it falls to $6.95. This week silver should trade between $7.16 and $6.92. A fall below $6.92 should be a cue to get out from buying position because it could then touch $6.72. Monday could be a mix day while Wednesday and Thursday should be positive for silver.


    COPPER/PALLADIUM/PLATINUM


    Copper and platinum should remain down. For Palladium, one should keep buying small quantities in the portfolio. Those who short copper can cover part of it on Friday because from next week, it could move up for a few days.


    OIL


    Crude, heating oil and natural gas went down over ten percent from its highs; while unleaded gas went down over twenty percent from it top. I am not praising myself but Mercury gave me a great call to sell oil at $70.80. What else do smart traders need? You don’t have to trade everyday but just have to look out for a great opportunity. This week oil should start moving up from Wednesday or Thursday for a short period and I therefore recommend covering short by Tuesday. However from next week, it will fall; therefore trade accordingly.


    The trading range for oil will be $61.80 to $65.80. We can see that oil will trade within a small price range.


    STOCK MARKET


    Last week, weak oil prices gave a boost to stocks. The market should remain weak during this week. Next week I shall include the index trading range of the week for the first time.


    This week the Dow will trade between 10691 and 10500. If it breaks Mars’ figure of 10500, then the next target will be 10320. In the next three months, the Dow could reach a maximum of 10740 on the upside, while the downside is 9640. Indications for next year are also weak and once it falls into the planetary grip, then I see the DOW touching 6800 in fifteen trading months.


    ONE CAN AGAIN START SELLING THE EUROPEAN MARKET FROM MONDAY.


    CURRENCIES


    The US Dollar index is enjoying a hide-and-seek game with all the currencies. For 2005 the dollar is the Lion and as the Lion is king of the Jungle, the dollar will firmly rule over the other currencies.


    From 2001 to 2004, this same king was enclosed in a circus and only acted under the instruction of a master. He is presently free and is boldly marching through his territory. I am waiting for my first predicted target of $94 to be fulfilled; which should be soon.


    During this week, the Dollar index should reach above $88.50.

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Aladin


    Danke für diese news.
    Heute keine Anmerkungen? :))
    Mich hat jedenfalls überrascht, wie superbullish er für Gold wird.


    "Above $1000" und .."gold leaping $20 to $50 in a day"!!!


    Nun, der weiß genau, was auf uns zurollt,und das mit dem ansteigenden $
    ist wohl das letzte Aufbegehren, nach dem Willen der FED-Konsorten.
    Mal sehen.


    Grüsse

    GOLD, HOW UNDERVALUED ART THOU?
    by The Mogambo Guru


    From the IMF website, we read that one of their "principles" is, "As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position." So, even the IMF itself says that gold is undervalued! I mean, what more do you want, for crying out loud? Buy gold!


    As for their stash of the yellow metal, "The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 metric tons) of gold at designated depositories." This is the gold that the United States and the other signatories of the deal that created the IMF literally gave them. I stare at you blankly for a few seconds, until I finally say, with a deadpan expression, "We gave them our gold?" It should sink into your head how I feel about that, and that is how you will feel about it, too, or else you will do very badly in this class.


    Anyway, they go on to say, "The IMF's total gold holdings are valued on its balance sheet at SDR 5.9 billion (about $9 billion) on the basis of historical cost. As of February 28, 2005, the IMF's holdings amounted to $45 billion (at then current market prices)."


    Not only that, but the IMF used gold as money, as is clearly indicated when they write that, "A payment of charges (i.e., interest on members' use of IMF credit) were normally made in gold. A member wishing to purchase the currency of another member could acquire it by selling gold to the IMF." So, you are probably asking yourself: Why didn't they just pay each other with a fiat currency? Hahahaha! They know the value of that crap, which ought to tell you something, too!


    All this was changed when, "The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement in April 1978, eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the post-World War II exchange rate system and as the basis of the value of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR)." In case you were wondering, SDRs are just another fiat currency, a new and special "let's pretend" money used only to transact IMF business, World Bank business, and God only knows what else. But they eliminated gold as the basis for their money because they knew that gold was going to get very valuable very soon, and sure enough, it did! It soon went over $850 an ounce! And remember that Nixon had de-linked the dollar from gold just seven years earlier, when gold was selling for about $35 an ounce! Anybody who had borrowed gold at $35 an ounce was going to pay it back with gold that costs $850 an ounce? Hahahaha!


    Another principle that they say guides the IMF's policy on gold is that, "The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies." And this is exactly what I have been screeching for you to do, too! But do you listen to me? No! I feel a little better knowing that you don't listen to the IMF, either, and they have those fancy-pants offices, and I am just a lonely guy who is paid to clean the toilets and refill the snack machine. So - and here's a tip - while I don't expect the fawning deference you would have for the IMF, a little respect might help me decide which one I do first


    Anyway, as we march relentlessly forward in time, we watch as our hair first becomes grey, then thin, and we don't notice that the IMF has also been busy. But they have. During the years 1976-80, under, "Auctions and 'restitution'," we learn that, "The IMF sold approximately one third (50 million ounces) of its then-existing gold holdings following an agreement by its members to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system." In short, the IMF started selling the gold that we gave them to get the IMF started, and did it to try to gobble up some of the mountains of money that were being created by the idiot governments, hoping to prevent a world-wide conflagration of inflation. My God! Aren't we scared enough?


    So, how were they paid for the gold? Easy! "Half of this amount was sold in restitution to members at the then-official price of SDR 35 per ounce; the other half was auctioned to the market to finance the trust fund, which supported concessional lending by the IMF to low-income countries." Let me get this straight so far: We created the IMF, and we gave them a lot of gold to get started. Then, later, after IMF had screwed things up and a caused bunch of countries to become so highly indebted that they are on the edge of default and so much money was created that it was literally sloshing around, threatening to produce roaring inflation, the IMF sold the gold, to again finance a bail-out of a bunch of low-income countries (with "concessional lending") that were so stupid as to follow the bad advice of the IMF, which threatened to default on debts owed to our banks? Hahahaha!


    If your heart is thumping ("boom boom boom"), and you have sharp pains shooting through your chest ("ouch!") and your left arm is numb, then you are starting to really get the hang of this economics thing. I'm proud of you!


    Anyway, abruptly we are again off to the future, and after a short ride we get off the bus at the period 1999-2000. This is where we reach the historical spot where we first find "Off-market transactions in gold." This was initiated in December 1999 when, "the executive board authorized off-market transactions in gold of up to 14 million ounces to help finance IMF participation in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative," which is, as always, another welfare giveaway program. And welfare programs always expand and expand until they bankrupt any country so brain-dead as to allow it to happen, which is, as it turns out, almost all of them.


    The United States is included in this, I am sorry to say, as almost a third of all the people in this country are supported by the government. And it makes you wonder what in the hell an "off-market transaction" is, but I don't want to know, as I know too much already. If I really knew what in the hell was going on, I would certainly be on the evening news, with breathless on-the-scene reporters yelling, "It's The Mogambo again, Ted! He's really lost it this time!" In the background you would hear the sound of gunfire, screams of pain and torment, yelling, "The Federal Reserve has killed our money and is killing you, too! We're freaking doomed!"


    Fortunately, my usual cacophony of screaming anguish and mortal torment are muffled by the thick walls of the Mogambo Top Secret Bunker In The Backyard (MTSBITBY), because when I think of the inflation that is coming our way thanks to all the money that has headed our way, I have to ask myself, as you will no doubt ask yourself, "Is the .50 caliber machinegun truly adequate to defend against neighbors rioting in the streets because inflation has impoverished them all, and now they want revenge on The Mogambo for one flimsy reason or another... mostly involving a few un-repaid loans and an unfortunate incident that was eerily similar to the Hardy Boys book, 'Mystery of the Missing Lawn Furniture and Barbeque Grills'?"


    To show you how weird things are, even the Federal Reserve has started listening to The Mogambo, probably because it is hard NOT to listen to the Mogambo, because every day I am calling them up and leaving messages, such as "Hey, you big fat stupid buttheads! Inflation is roaring in stocks and bonds and houses and government! Wake up, you morons! Inflation is every freaking where, dudes!"


    Anyway, whether or not they actually DID listen to me, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, notes, "Belatedly, Alan Greenspan has finally paid lip service to the mounting perils of the Asset Economy. In his recent swan song at Jackson Hole, the Fed chairman cautioned that 'history has not dealt kindly' with investors (i.e., American consumers) who may have gone too far in 'accepting lower compensation for risk' on their asset holdings. Even couched in all the oblique caveats so typical of Fedspeak, this is quite a confession. The father of the asset economy now fears he has created a monster."


    Well, duh! Isn't that exactly what I have been saying over and over and over for years and years? And isn't that ALL I have been saying? And isn't that why I have no friends (but plenty of new enemies), and I am now old and bitter and very, very angry? And did I mention very, very scared and paranoid? I meant to.


    So if you are a holder of stocks or bonds or houses, then you should be afraid.


    Regards,


    The Mogambo Guru
    for The Daily Reckoning

    GO GATA!!!


    It seemed like last night’s early gold trading was too good to be true, and it was. Gold rose $2.70 right off the bat in Asia. The yen strengthened more than a point due to Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi winning a landslide victory in Japan’s lower house of parliament in yesterday’s national election. Koizumi received a mandate to enact his reforms, which includes the reduction of the size of government.


    While the yen was firm, the other foreign currencies were slightly weaker. Gold surged anyway, having broken through a key psychological and technical resistance point. Then the euro began to sink like a stone. It seemed to me The Gold Cartel was losing control of the gold price, so they called in reinforcements (the Working Group on Financial Markets) to push the dollar up. Slowly, it began to have its effect on gold as its price gradually gave up the ghost. By the opening this morning gold was lower, the euro was trashed, and the yen gave up most of its early gains.


    Reasons offered for the euro hit were Germany’s floundering economy and fears of a minority party political victory. Yet, the euro did not open sharply lower in Asia, like the yen did higher. It only was hit after gold surged. Euro news does not explain the pounding the British Pound took, nor does it explain the yen giving up its gains on good news for that currency.


    Anyway, how the European news compares to the astronomical fiscal costs of the Katrina disaster (and the loss of confidence in our government due to their inept handling of the catastrophe) is beyond me. The US is printing money to pay for the costs; money and costs which did not exist two weeks ago. How can this possibly have so little effect on the dollar?


    Only one way, government intervention, which is why MIDAS put out the commentary yesterday on The Greenspan Put. I thought an explanation of how Greenspan, the PPT and Gold Cartel operate might be especially helpful for new Café members and as a review for veteran. One thing for sure, once people see what is going on from a Planet GATA viewpoint, you can never go back to the Planet Wall Street view and their market explanations. Their explanations just don’t hold water much of the time, like the levees in New Orleans failed to hold the water out of that special city.


    This is important to understand because the management of the US financial markets will all blow up some day and the average American won’t know what hit them. As it stands now, this Working Group on Financial Markets/Gold Cartel crowd has the American investing public in a Matrix-like grip. The Orwellians have created their own reality based on spin and intervention. This PPT crew has Planet Wall Street smiling like the robotic folks in The Stepford Wives … "How is everything?" "Everything is fine."


    Some early feedback this morning from some of the sharp Café members’ minds:


    Bill;
    In 25 years of my watching markets, I've never seen poorer fundamentals for a currency than those currently exist for the U.S. dollar. While the natural trend is clearly for the dollar to weaken - amazingly, the fiat masters are still capable of inflicting maximum pain on those who would [fundamentally] rightly short it. The severe weakness of the dollar overnight contrasted against it's dramatic 'snap back' this morning is completely and utterly permeated with the stench of market manipulation. The fiat goons are clearly trying to convey the message that they are still in control. While they indeed do still have control of the printing press, the consequences of such actions only load the chambers of the inflationary engine with still more fuel. Ben Bernanke is no doubt proud. I wonder how much longer they are going to be able to suppress the price of gold - which requires increasingly larger amounts of physical assets that must be mined - not printed - when reality tells us that mine output continues to decline. My spider senses are telling me this charade - that our financial markets have become - is not going to last much longer.
    best,
    Rob


    Bill,
    Each day becomes more insane than the last. Gold at $451.50 last night in Europe, so I told my wife I'd bet every bit of my fortune that it would be knocked down overnight.


    The amount of effort, coordination, and resources it must have taken to get this ridiculous dollar rally going must have been huge. And what have they really accomplished? A measly $1 drop in gold and a $4 increase in Euro gold, which will only serve to embolden international investors.


    Something tells me this 9/15 derivatives meeting will prove to be a watershed event, portending something very ugly coming down the pike.
    Andy


    Morning Bill,
    Last night, gold penetrated $451 before I retired for the evening. But surprise, surprise; it was taken down overnight. Today's Kitco chart tells the whole story. These felons are in panic mode and they're throwing everything they have at gold to contain the price. This propping up of the USD is sheer desperation and in spite of support from the world's central banks, the U.S.'s disastrous, ever growing, deficit will soon tank the dollar. I like to think of this as the cartel's final death throes. Go GATA!
    Rich C.


    The gold open interest went up 9,476 contracts on Friday, which means around a 17,000 contract increase for Thursday and Friday. Both of those days The Gold Cartel stopped gold from closing above $449. You will not hear this from mainstream gold commentary, which is why most of it is so trite and uninteresting. They might as well be 6th grade reporters covering a story for public elementary schools. The sellers on Friday were The Gold Cartel and friends. The buyers were the funds.


    The AM Fix this morning was $449.15. The Gold Cartel would not allow this mini-breach of $449 to stand, so as is the case time and time again, they took the price down. However, The Best Laid Plans, struck. Significant fund buying was more than a match for the cabal’s selling and gold, which only bent all session long, crawled back, closing above key $449 resistance and right on its highs of the Comex session.


    The Gold Cartel, led by Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs were the major sellers on the Comex. Talk about broken records. The "Super Fund" was a significant buyer – the same fund who the cabal maneuvered out of the market on their criminal raid right after Katrina struck.


    There is a HUGE amount of stops building above last night’s overnight December high of $455.80.


    The euro gold price exploded, making new highs for the move and a new high for who knows how long. It finished at 365.80 up 4.42.


    Silver remains dull as dishwater for the time being. Its open interest gained 1436 contracts to 114,054. Morgan Stanley has turned bullish again. The silver warehouse stocks keep going up. Hard to know what to make of that.


    Speaking of infantile commentary, I went back and forth with Bill Fleckenstein late last week, who said there is no PPT and no gold price manipulation; that there was nothing new in the Sprott Report. Then, this email from a Café member over another Planet Wall Street hypocrite:


    Jim Grant made a statement about manipulation in the gold market that has to get you heated up. He said that if there was manipulation, it would have been proven by now. Clearly no one has presented him with the reams of evidence GATA has accumulated. Clearly he pays no attention to actual Fed statements regarding the willingness of the Fed to sell gold in order to contain the price. I always thought he was a pompous jack-ass who flaunts his Princeton degree a bit more than he should, clearly masking a large intellectual deficit. He's just another legend in his own mind. Dave in Denver and lowly University of Chicago biz grad...


    http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/484406.htm


    ***


    Both Fleckenstein and Grant are very bright, well-followed, and both fancy themselves as contrarians in the Planet Wall Street world. However, both are about as establishment as it gets and refuse to examine the PPT/gold market manipulation issue with any degree of thoroughness they tackle other economic/financial market subjects. They just say they don’t believe it and say there is no proof. No proof? There is nothing but proof. What is so irksome is these hypocrites never contradict that proof with specifics where we are wrong. They just make blanket inane statements.


    The reason for their inanity and disingenuous remarks on our issues is their clients are heavily Planet Wall Street oriented. Years ago, for example, JP Morgan was Fleckenstein’s most visible advertiser on his web site. Grant, featured on CNBC all the time, would probably never be asked back if he agreed with GATA (I have been banned for six years). Both are surely entitled to cater to their clientele, but they deserve ZERO credibility when it comes to their comments on the manipulation of the gold market and on the shenanigans of the PPT.

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