Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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Rohstoffe
Goldpreis so hoch wie zuletzt 1988

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Arbeit in einer Goldmine Brasiliens

16. September 2005 Der Goldpreis ist am Freitag in New York auf den höchsten Stand seit dem Jahr 1988 geklettert und steuert auf den dritten Wochengewinn in Folge zu. Am Spotmarkt in London zog der Preis für eine Feinunze (rund 31 Gramm) Gold um 0,7 Prozent auf 459 Dollar. In New York stieg der Dezemberkontrakt auf Gold um 0,7 Prozent auf 462,30 Dollar.

Viele Anleger kaufen das Edelmetall, um sich gegen steigende Verbraucherpreise und Energiekosten abzusichern. Anzeichen für Inflation in den Vereinigten Staaten, der hohe Ölpreis und die Aussicht auf eine Wachstumsverlangsamung treiben den Goldpreis nach Einschätzung von Analysten. Die Verbraucherpreise in Amerika sind mit einer Jahresrate von 3,9 Prozent gestiegen, verglichen mit 3,5 Prozent ein Jahr zuvor. Auch als Alternative zu Devisenanlagen gewinnt Gold an Beliebtheit.

Sinkender Respekt für alle Währungen

"Es zeigt einen sinkenden Respekt für alle Währungen", erläutert Dennis Gartman, Volkswirt und Herausgeber des Gartman Letter. "Gold hat erst dann eine Hausse, wenn der Preis in allen Währungen gemessen steigt, und das tut er derzeit." Gemessen in Yen liegt der Goldpreis auf dem höchsten Stand seit August 1991. Für dieses Jahr liegt er 15 Prozent im Plus. Der Goldpreis in Euro ist in diesem Jahr um 18 Prozent gestiegen.

In Indien stieg der Oktober-Kontrakt auf Gold an der Multi Commodity Exchange of India in Mumbai um 0,2 Prozent auf 6519 Rupien je zehn Gramm. Indien ist der größte Abnehmer für Gold weltweit, das vor allem in der Schmuckindustrie zum Einsatz kommt. Die Schmuckindustrie hatte im vergangenen Jahr einen Anteil von 68 Prozent am Goldhandel und kaufte in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten Gold im Rekordwert von 38 Milliarden Dollar, berichtete der Verband der Goldschmuckhersteller im September.

Text: Bloomberg/F.A.Z., 17.09.2005, Nr. 217 / Seite 25
Bildmaterial: AP, Bloomberg

hmmm,

Montag könnte ein Down-Tag werden, wenn nicht:
dann wird Mittwoch interessant (ist 2 Tage nach Vollmond, dieser ist
Montag). Wenn wir diese Tage gut bestreichen, dann müssen sich
einige in diesem Herbst und Winter warm anziehen, während wir
es Warm und kuschelig und goldig haben.

Positiv sehe ich, dass einige - mainstream - Kommentare nicht nur
pro Gold und Silber sind, sondern zunehmend einige unserer Ansichten
beginnen zu teilen, (in den letzten 12 Monaten waren ja positive -mainstream -
editorials eher auf einem Peak zu hören, wenn es gerade mal wieder abwärts ging.

Positiv sehe ich, das der Optimismus sowohl hier als auch auf gold-eagle
noch verhalten ist - mein persönlicher Sentiment-Indikator (Foren-Stimmung)
ist noch grün.

Positiv sehe ich auch, dass der Aktien-Umsatz bei NEM (Newmont Mining)
gut zunimmt.

Selbst der Stunden-HUI macht mich - noch- nicht skeptisch.

Chart:

Ich vergass noch:

- es werden noch nicht Gold-Aktien quer durch die Bank,
nach dem Motto "Wenn Butter läuft, läuft auch Öl und Schmiere", gekauft,
gut ist da immer ein Vergleich NEM:ABX oder ein Überbick über die Juniors.

Als Zusatz noch: GANZ BESONDERS LIEBE ICH DIES:

Chart:

Man achte auf die Volumes und vergleiche diese bei den Grossen
mit den Volumes Ende '04.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^hui+^xau+^gdm+^GOX+HL+PAAS+SSRI+CDE+FCX+%20ABI.V+NEM+ABX+GFI+PDG+AU+KGC+HMY+GG+MDG+LIHRY+IAG+DROOY+EGO+BGO+GLG+CALVF.OB+MFN+NG.TO+RDV.TO+ECU.V+CDU.V+NJMC.OB+DEZ+EDR.V+EDV.TO+MNEAF.OB+RNC.TO+RSG.V+GRS.TO+RBX.V+CRMXF.O

"Sumthin' big cometh this way"

GMY

Bob Hopper:
http://www.silverminers.com/pu…ns/M___M_REPORT091605.mp3

Friday, September 16, 2005, 8:20:00 PM EST

Gold and Dollar Market Summary

Author: Dan Norcini

Gold bulls showed their mettle today smashing through COT’s Maginot Line at $459-$460 like it was non-existent. Gold call sellers of the 460’s were forced to eat those today and had no choice but to buy futures again.

Funds continue their buying. Plenty of new money came in yesterday with the open interest increasing over 17,000 new contracts, bringing us to 343,286 as of Thursday.

The strong showing in gold with it notching a 17-year high is attracting all manner of attention. The result is that plenty of speculators want in. Goodness gracious, even CNBC mentioned the word “gold” today more times I think than they did all year. One thing is for sure – gold is definitely on the radar screen of a goodly portion of the investment world and has entered into the second phase of its generational bull market. COT will have its work cut out for them.

Eurogold came in at €374.294 for the PM Fix and continues to move steadily higher. Its chart is very strong.

Both the HUI and the XAU put in performances that can only be called “stunning.” The HUI blasted through its March high and is within striking distance of last year’s November peak at 248.18. It closed today at 239.54.
The XAU continues to soar and is less than one point shy of its November peak at 111.50, finishing today at 110.54.

The weekly charts of both indices are exemplary and reveal what took place this week. Many of the gold and silver shares woke up and managed upside breakouts of broad trading ranges that have held them in confinement for the better part of this year. The South African miners, which have been mostly lethargic this year, really came to life today: GOLD, GFI and HMY all looked very solid.

Even silver got in on the fun – finally. Strength in gold yanked it north and it ripped into the fund buy stops that were sitting above the market, barely setting back at all during the session as the buying came in nearly continuously. Its close above that tough resistance band near 712-715 puts it squarely on target to challenge the August highs near 740.

The big data release today was the current account number. The current account deficit for Q2 narrowed to -$195.7 billion but only because the numbers for Q1 were upwardly revised. The Commerce Department revised the first quarter gap to a record -$198.7 billion versus the -$195.1 billion deficit that they had initially reported last month. Without the upward revision to last month’s number, we would have seen the CA deficit increase. Even at that, the shortage was the second highest on record. The market had been looking for a number closer to -$193 billion.

What is numbing about this number (a little word play there) is that Commerce has a habit of revising these things and they always seem to grow larger. If the trend continues, we are talking about a Current Account Deficit for 2005 approaching -$800 billion.

With the federal budget deficit projections continuing to rise and come in closer to -$400 billion, we have the very real possibility that the combined yearly deficits will be in the vicinity of -$1.1 trillion. That is personally mindboggling to me. What is also interesting about this report is that the investment income balance went negative.

The Treasury also released its International Capital Flows data today for the month of July which came in at a much higher than expected $87.4 billion compared to expectations of $60.0 billion. The US trade deficit was $57.9 billion in July so this was more than ample to cover the shortfall there.

Net foreign purchases of US debt, both government in the form of Treasuries and agency debt, in addition to corporate debt accounted for the bulk of the flows. Equities were basically a wash. Amazingly, the world continues with its appetite for dollar-denominated debt. Quite frankly, this astonishes me. For now, the American party at the expense of the rest of the global community continues. As long as they are willing to lend us their money, it appears the show will go on.

The dollar, which first reacted a bit negatively to the current account info, moved up some when the TIC data was released. Even with that data, it could not manage a higher close for the day and settled down a tad at 87.81. If the dollar cannot get above 88.55 very soon, it will head down and either establish a range trade or break through support and resume the next leg in its long-established bear market.

The Canadian dollar was strong all day even in the face of weaker crude prices. It continues its trek steadily upward and onward and could very well become one of the strongest performers among the major currencies. Canada is resource rich, especially in oil, and that should tend to keep money flows there quite strong.

Meanwhile back in La-La land, equity bears managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once again as the stock market made another of those “remarkable recoveries" to save itself on the technical charts. Another down day today would have been the coup de grace for the S&P and the Nasdaq on the weekly chart. That would have been a no-no.

The reason given for the rally, as if we really need one these days, is that the bulls were optimistic about all that federal money that was promised in last evening’s speech by the President and the impact on the economy. Talk about forward looking!

The stock market seems to have some sort of morbid fascination with government indebtedness. Coming on the heels of yesterday’s abysmal Philly Fed business index and shaky Empire State Manufacturing survey, the bulls are running on nothing but hope as there is certainly nothing justifying their current giddiness from a fundamental standpoint. All of the recent economic data has been especially shaky and reveals an economy with decelerating momentum.

I keep coming back to the point I have often made in these reports. Based upon the thinking of current equity investors, the best thing that could now happen to the US would be a massive earthquake along the San Andreas Fault line coupled with a direct hit of another portion of the Gulf Coast by a new hurricane. We would easily see DOW 12,000 should that occur since the federal government could have even more money to throw at the subsequent rebuilding efforts. I suppose we can just endlessly print money to fix things in this country and never worry about paying the piper.

What a fairytale land so many of these guys live in. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a 13-year low of 76.9 in early September from 89.1 in August. The number was even worse than what the market had expected. Never mind was the attitude – we are going to be getting lots of FREE federal money to fix things so it’s “no worries mate” time again.

Crude oil prices were down as well with gasoline getting hit especially hard. Perhaps that gave equity bulls some more Rah-Rah juice. Strange how one of the reasons given for the equity rally was a brokerage upgrade of Exxon by Deutsche Bank which raised its rating from “hold” to “buy,” saying that oil supplies are likely to remain tight over the coming year.

Oh I get it now: We should buy Exxon because oil prices will remain so tight over the next year but we should also buy other stocks as well because energy prices are falling and becoming cheap for consumers once again. Makes perfect sense to me. Don’t try to figure it out as you will only harm your brain.

Gasoline is now back at levels last seen the week prior to Katrina. The talk is that the sharp rise in prices that resulted from the storm shut down demand. A simple glance at the price charts of both unleaded and heating oil reveals that we only just imagined Katrina. It never really occurred. All those refineries are just fine thank you. Hope the upcoming winter is mild.

Bonds continued breaking down as more and more of the flattening trades are lifted and the curve begins to get back to more “normal” levels. For now, even rising interest rates cannot dampen the equity bulls’ giddiness. It’s time to chase those “cheap” stocks higher again.

Chatter among the equity bulls that the Fed will pause in its interest rate hike schedule is obviously being lost on bond bears who continue dragging the yield on the all- important Ten Year Note higher. Think adjustable rate mortgages…

That’s it for now. I hope you all have an enjoyable weekend with your family and loved ones.

@ Tschonko, du hast Recht, Katrina war der Ausloeser fuer den Anstieg.
Bin gespannt wie die Vollmondwoche ausgeht.

Was hat Bin L und George Bush gemeinsam ?
Man kann ihr Gehirn nicht auffinden.

Das wird noch ein Zirkus, die Amis sind in trouble fast ueberall und der Krieg in Irak wird ein zweites Vietnam fuer sie. Der Islamische Hass baut sich immer mehr auf, der dritte Weltkrieg ist in der Pipeline wenn sie nicht abruecken.

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK
BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 19, 2005

Longer-Term Thoughts:

Wow!... Was that really President George W. Bush speaking to the nation Thursday night about a massive rebuilding plan for New Orleans and other Gulf regions destroyed by Hurricane Katrina? Or was it Mr. Bush channeling the spirits of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, and other noted Liberal democrats from the past? Now I could spend a good part of this week’s letter pointing out how this ambitious plan will surely fit into the downside of the Saturn-Pluto cycle (higher taxes and/or increased federal deficits), but the truth is that I am impressed with his vision that demonstrates more compassion and less denial of responsibility than anything I have observed from the White House in the past five years. And yes, the cost of rebuilding the Gulf area has just increased from about $65 billion to perhaps $200-300 billion, which will only add to the Federal deficit. And yes, if Mr. Bush’s history of estimating costs is any indication, the actual cost will probably more than double that. But it is indeed a refreshing change of course to see the self-proclaimed “compassionate conservative” actually demonstrate a plan that speaks of some real compassion for people who have indeed suffered.

Now the real test comes to see if Mr. Bush can actually deliver want he promises, while at the same time building upon the unifying forces of support for his vision. We all know what happened following the 9-11 disaster. He had the world in his hands, selflessly offering to help the United States . But all of the “good will” generated from the disaster back then quickly turned to resentment as many of the international offers of support were turned away, and the White House decided to invoke a war in Iraq on premises that are to this day unproven.

So Mr. Bush has a second chance (how lucky is this man?) to step up in the face of a great disaster, and exhibit needed leadership. He wasn’t lacking in ideas about what needs to be done. And the country ( United States ) will support him. Now it is up to him to deliver this vision in a manner that shows competence, and not ineptitude, poor grasp of the realities of the situation, bungling of efforts, and politicizing/partisan decisions. If he can succeed, then his legacy as a positive force in American history may be assured. But if he blows this like he blew the War on Terrorism in Iraq , and fails to generate a real coalition of supporters (this time within the various branches of U.S. government instead of international government), the Conservatives will be done for several years. And so will the financial security of our children and their children. Everything now rides upon his ability to deliver on this vision of “compassionate conservatism,” which now has the power to unify the people of this nation. With transiting Saturn beginning to conjunct Mr. Bush’s Ascendant, Mercury, and Pluto for the next ten months, this is really his “make it or break it” time in life. And for that matter, it is also the “make it or break it” time for the United States . Depending on his success in realizing progress in this vision in the next ten months, I would say that 2008-2010 will either be a great peak in economic activity and new all-time highs in U.S. stock markets, or a period which will witness the decline of the U.S. stock market by 60-90%, and a devastating recession (or several). Based on his speech, I am now favoring the more positive outlook. But then again, I felt that way after his speech to Congress following the 9-11 attack. I hope that I – and you – are not disappointed again this time, for truly, this vision (in my opinion) has powerful positive economic and psychological implications for this country, for this planet, for the next 3-5 years.

Review and Preview:

The announcement of the massive rebuilding effort (and proposed spending) in the wake of Hurricane Katrina had a positive effect upon U.S. stocks on Friday, but the opposite effect upon the U.S. Treasury markets. The idea of increasing budget deficits means greater borrowing needs by the U.S. Treasury, and that translates into higher interest rates. It may also cause concern about higher inflation, which is already a concern amidst the recent record highs in crude oil prices. Consequently, prices of precious metals also soared last week, especially in Gold – as expected, per last week’s column, related to the forthcoming Mars retrograde factor of October 1.

In world equity markets, some countries witnessed new multi-year highs last week, including the German DAX and London FTSE in Europe, the Australian All Ordinaries and the Japanese Nikkei in the Pacific Rim, and both the Merval of Argentina and Bovespa of Brazil in South America. In the United States , both the NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average made their weekly highs last Monday, and then fell into their weekly low on Thursday. But both staged impressive recoveries on Friday, following Mr. Bush’s bold rebuilding proposals outlined in his speech Thursday night.

Short-Term Geocosmics:

The Mars retrograde effect is starting. On Thursday, Gold gapped up to a new 17-year high, followed by another gap up to 463.70 on Friday. Silver followed with a strong 20-cent rally on Friday to its highest level in over a month. Not only did Mars retrograde show up in the predictable precious metals markets, but it also showed its war-like aggressive aside in mundane affairs too. Over 200 people were killed in renewed assaults in Iraq on Thursday and Friday. Whenever a planet nears its stationary point, the qualities of that planet are in exaggerated evidence in the affairs of the world.

This is a critical reversal period right now, highlighted by the transit of Venus in trine aspect Uranus and square aspect to Saturn this Sunday, September 18. The square to Saturn is particularly important, for any financial markets that are making multi-day lows within one day of this signature usually reverse. We probably saw that in U.S. stocks, which bottomed on Thursday., and perhaps also in foreign currencies which are falling against the Dollar as of last week’s close, especially in the Yen. If the currencies do reverse here, and the Dollar falls, then one would think that might be enough to quickly propel Gold to our 480.00-520.00 target sometime in the next two-three weeks.

Also this week, we will find both Mercury and the Sun entering Libra on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Usually this is bullish for equity markets around the world for at least a couple of weeks. But it may coincide with cross-currents this time in geopolitical affairs, for Libra is also the sign of peace and agreements. Yet that dynamic seems in conflict with the stationary Mars period, which is anything but peace and agreements. And, as noted above, several equity indices actually rallied strongly into the close of last week, some to new multi-week and even multi-year highs. So if this is a reversal period, one would expect they could now reverse downwards. We will address this issue in more detail to our weekly subscribers.

Hamilton on HUI

The HUI unhedged gold-stock index has been rather impressive so far this month, up 10% as of Wednesday’s close. And this move is just the latest component of a nicely developing 36% upleg that was born back in May.

With gold stocks surging again, they are attracting a lot more attention as we move into the busy autumn trading season. Just a few months ago gold stocks languished well under the radars of even most contrarian investors. Today they are moving into the spotlight as even CNBC has been reluctantly highlighting their strength this week.

As with any run higher, the HUI’s renewed vigor is generating an interesting mix of psychology. Gold-stock bulls are growing happier by the day. The higher the HUI runs the more enthusiastic they will grow, until their euphoria eventually gets out of hand and spawns an interim HUI top and subsequent correction.

Gold-stock bears, on the other hand, are busy thinking of reasons why this latest HUI upleg probably won’t be sustainable. Potential reasons advanced include deflation, central-bank selling, a persistent Wall Street bias against recommending gold stocks, and a general-market selloff hammering gold stocks. The higher the HUI runs the more pessimistic the bears will grow, building the proverbial wall of worry that all major uplegs must climb.

more........

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1126887987.php

Guten Morgen EdelMan,

das derzeitige Chartbild im HUI erinnert doch stark an die Situation Ende 2003 bis Sommer 2004. Nach Überwindung dieser Formation gab es einen Anstieg von ca. 50 Prozent innerhalb weniger Monate.

Gute Kurse auch nächste Woche

Nur mal kurz im Goldthread erwähnt, weil es auch entscheident für den Euro und somit auch Einfluss auf die Edelmetalle hat:

Auf N24 kam vor 5 min, dass es eine Überraschung bei der Wahl geben könnte. Um was und welche Partei es dabei gehen soll, darf man erst ab 18 Uhr sagen...

Dear Members,

During the last week, all commodities generally went down except for gold and silver, which both broke out. Indeed I fully expect both metals to move forward in a positive cycle for the next few days. However, this could be the last positive cycle after which they should remain in a consolidated trading range or side-ways. I say this at a time when metal investors are in an upbeat mood, with a lot of buying taking place in gold. It was an interesting sign for gold to ignore the strong dollar trend. I have been writing of such a situation since early this year even though most gold investors disagree with my prediction, saying that if the dollar moves up, then gold cannot hold. The wave of nature has however proven everybody wrong, and this was a just a small trailer as next year we shall witness both rivals walking together.

We are approaching October 2005 and I know that many of you are waiting for my announcement concerning the fund. As I promised, I shall soon inform you. This week’s newsletter will be short and I also won’t be able to write on the housing market as earlier pledged. Some members of a team from one of the world’s leading financial institutions are here on a visit to make the final decision about launching the “Wave of Nature Product”, in which you will also be able to participate. However, if for any reason we cannot agree, (that is the institution and I) then I shall soon announce my alternative move in the next two weeks.

I shall write about the property market next week, as well as its implication on the world financial market.

Here is this week’s newsletter:

Predictions for 19 to 23 September

GOLD

Last week’s gold performance was a warning to short sellers and everyone else that its time will soon start after a twenty five year gap. The 1979/80 rise was weak and that is why it fell to low levels and took decades to bounce back. If gold rises but then sharply falls back, this is a sign that its movement lacks nature’s power and support.

Last year and even early this year, I clearly mentioned that gold won’t trade below $400 and it has proven right. Next, it may test the $400 mark before springing a major move. Today, nobody may agree with me and even I don’t want to believe it, but this is what planetary movements indicate. It will be very interesting to see whether this will happen or not, therefore save this information.

In the current week, gold will be as follows (Spot gold price):

Trading range for the week: $453.10 to $462.60. Breaking of either will deduct or add one more percent in the mentioned prices.

On Monday and Tuesday, gold should trade in a small range or sideways, while Wednesday will be quite volatile. We shall therefore see moves on both sides on this day. Thursday will remain weak whereas Friday will be stable.

Friday should be the right day to buy gold and silver for the next week as I foresee a positive week.

SILVER

Last week silver moved up on negative days, therefore emitting a very interesting sign. In addition, it broke a very important astrological price barrier of $7.16. (I AM TALKING OF SPOT MARKET PRICE)

This week silver should move in the very range of $7.16 to $7.31. Everyone must remember that it shouldn’t break $7.16 because if it does, then it may fall further two percent down. Wednesday and Thursday should remain weak days.

PALLADIUM/PLATINUM/COPPER

During last week copper, a hot commodity went down and should remain down from Wednesday. Palladium was a surprise to all as it sharply moved up. It should remain up from this week. I was wrong on the platinum prediction as I expected it to move down but it didn’t. it may therefore hang around the current level during this week.

OIL

Oil, the most talked about and hot commodity tumbled last week. This week it should move up from Tuesday for a short period and I therefore recommend that you cover your short position in oil, heating oil, unleaded gas as well as natural gas.

STOCK MARKET

I have been coming wrong on the market prediction, with European markets trying to reach previous highs once again. Nevertheless, all markets should remain around the same levels. Astrologically, a very important date is approaching, and that is Friday 30 September or Monday 3 October. After this, the markets should fall a minimum of 6% percent within a few weeks.
IMPORTANT NOTE: BE ON HIGH ALERT ON EUROPEAN, ASIAN AND USA MARKETS. WATCH YOUR POSITION OR GET OUT FROM BUYING POSITION NEXT WEEK AS A MAJOR SCANDAL MAY BE ON THE WAY.

CURRENCIES

The dollar sidestepped negative economic data news and as a matter of fact, I am not worried for the dollar even if they don’t raise interest rates. Indeed, its rise will remain continuous as there is no reason why it cannot sustain the rise. For the time being, the dollar has taken the position of ‘lion’.

This week trading range will be from $87.71 to $89.90 and above $94 in the next three weeks. The Euro should soon break 1.20 and move towards 1.14.

One should always trade within their limits because the futures market can be very dangerous if you are trading with high leverage. One should therefore try to make money slowly but surely and you will be successful in the long run if you choose the right area for every investment.

At the current time, BUYING GRAINS IS THE BEST AND SAFEST BET. SELLING THE STOCK MARKET WILL SOON BE THE BEST SPECULATIVE MOVE; AS WE CORRECTLY DID ON THE SPOT FOR OIL, AS I WAS 1000% SURE THAT IT SHOULD FALL FROM $70.80.

THE BEST INVESTMENTS:–

BUY NEXT YEAR’S CALL OPTIONS IN GRAINS AND SILVER

BUY PUT ON EUROPEAN, INDIAN AND USA MARKET.