Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Solange die Amis offiziell kein Gold verkaufen und nicht dem Abkommen der Zentralbanken beitreten juckt mich das gar nicht.
    Wer weiss wie viel ueberhaupt noch in Fort Knox ist. :D
    Gold der grosse Wanderer.

    3 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Das ist der Punkt,Aladin:
    mit ihren 51% Stimmen haben die jeden größeren Goldverkauf zB des IWF verhindert,
    übrigens damit Schaden an den Entwicklungslänern abgewendet.
    Auch da waren die Briten wieder "oberschlau".


    Daß die Amis mit ihren ständigen Eingriffen in den freien Markt massiv Gold
    zumindest verliehen haben, glaube ich auch. :]


    Grüsse

    Wahrscheinlich haben sie das dreifache verliehen was sie in FN ueberhaupt haben. :D
    Am Papier ist viel verkauft worden, schaetze so 5 Jahresproduktionen.

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    Rita war nicht so brutal wie Katrina so wie es aussieht,da hat der Guru Recht bis jetzt.
    Kommt nun seine Vorhersage vom steigender Dollar nach Rita in Richtung 92 USD/Index ?? Euro 1.17 ??
    Naechste Woche wird wieder interessant werden. :rolleyes:

    4 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    MARKET REVIEW: FORCES OF NATURE


    Not much happened this week...well, except the fact that the second
    hurricane in less than a month threatened the Gulf Coast.


    Hurricane Rita, with winds even stronger than Katrina's, had everyone on
    edge as she churned around the Gulf Waters, closing in on the
    Texas-Louisiana border. Rita made landfall as a Category 3 storm in the
    pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning.


    Although the oil refineries on the Gulf Coast closed this week in
    preparation for Rita, as of now, this hurricane appears to have been far
    less damaging to the refining industry than Hurricane Katrina, which
    crippled four big refineries with long-term damage.


    With these two hurricanes back-to-back, displacing millions of people, and
    killing countless others, a question keeps popping up: Is there anything
    we can do to prevent hurricanes?


    Of course, after the mess with Katrina, the government is taking every
    measure to make sure that we would be better prepared for another
    large-scale rescue mission, but many want to know - can we do anything to
    quell this force of nature?


    In a nutshell, as many of you presumed, the answer is no. But not for lack
    of trying. CNN reports that in the 1950's, the federal government put a
    hurricane modification program called "Project Stormfury" into play.
    Basically, scientists in Navy planes released silver iodide on hurricanes
    clouds just outside the eyewall. The hope was that a new ring of clouds
    would form, change rain patterns and eventually collapse the eyewall.
    Their theory was the hurricane would spin slower and be less dangerous.


    Sometimes these experiments seemed to work, other times the scientists
    weren't so sure. So, after the government spent hundreds of millions of
    dollars on Project Stormfury, the decades-old experiment was abandoned due
    to inclusive findings.


    Then, there is the "Big Bang" theory - why can't we just blow up the
    hurricane?


    We recently spoke to the Sovereign Society's Sean Brodrick on this
    topic...


    "Why not use a big bomb to defuse a hurricane? I mean, a hurricane is just
    energy going in a particular direction, right? You'd think a bushel of
    those bunker-buster/daisy cutters targeted in the other direction would
    destroy the hurricane, or at least slow it down.


    "I found out why that won't work on the NOAA website, where they answer
    the question: 'why don't we use nuclear weapons to destroy hurricanes?'
    Using nukes hadn't occurred to me, because of the radiation being whipped
    around by the wind. And NOAA raises that point. But they also make these
    other points...


    "'A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy equivalent to a
    10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes.


    "'According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy
    at a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.


    "So, the short answer is, if you could build a bomb big enough to destroy
    a hurricane, you'd also probably destroy whatever you were trying to
    save."


    Kate Incontrera
    The Daily Reckoning

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
    The gold gambit: Long term or short?
    Bullion is on the march again, writes ROB CARRICK, and now could be the time to invest in the precious metal
    Headshot of Rob Carrick


    By ROB CARRICK


    Saturday, September 24, 2005 Page B10

    'Gold's a devilish sort of thing," a crusty old prospector named Howard says at one point in the movie Treasure of the Sierra Madre. Investors who bought the precious metal back in 1980 would surely agree.


    The price of gold bullion peaked in that year at $850 (U.S.) an ounce and then plunged so long and hard that as recently as 2001, it lurked around $270. Now, gold's on the march again. It touched a 17-year high of $470 this week and there are forecasts that it will rise to $500 by year's end and eventually to anywhere from $600 to its old high of $850. ;)
    A cynic might conclude that owning gold over the long term is the very definition of investing hell, but never mind. Good money is made in gold periodically, and right now could be one of those times.Before we get into the various ways to invest in gold, let's talk strategy. Are you planning to take advantage of the current rally and then flee, or do you want to make gold a longer-term part of your portfolio?


    On the side of the short fling with gold is David Whetham, manager of the $80-million Scotia Resource Fund. "It's a momentum trade," he said. "When things are going up, you want to own it, but when the momentum slows, it's probably time to move aside. There are too many factors that affect the price of gold and most of them are emotional rather than fundamentals that you can analyze."

    On the side of the long-term enthusiasts is Hans Merkelbach, an investment adviser with Dundee Private Investors from Bowen Island, B.C., who believes gold and other commodities are on an upswing with five to seven years still to go. Mr. Merkelbach has about 20 per cent of client portfolios in precious metals mutual funds and rejects the conventional view that 5 per cent is enough.


    "I don't believe in this 5-per-cent nonsense, that you should have a little bit of gold," Mr. Merkelbach said. "A gold fund is considered a high-risk fund. But in good times like now, where the metals, resources and energy are all in play, they're really not aggressive. If you do your analysis, a gold fund is really a medium risk."


    Your preference for short-term speculating or long-term investing in gold will be a major factor in deciding which of the many gold investment options to use.


    There are generally two ways to get into gold -- by investing in the actual metal with the purchase of wafers, bars and coins, or through stocks and mutual funds that either expose you to moves in gold bullion or to companies that mine gold.


    Owning actual gold sounds like a kick, but there are fees and storage issues to consider. You'll need to start by finding someone to sell you the gold, which you can do by looking in the Yellow Pages under gold, silver and platinum dealers. Some of the big banks, notably Bank of Nova Scotia, also sell gold. Use the Google.ca search engine and you'll find dealers who have websites with live pricing and will ship gold anywhere in the country.


    Montreal-based Kitco is typical in that it sells bullion in the form of bars of varying sizes and a selection of coins that include the Gold Maple Leaf coins issued by the Royal Canadian Mint. Quoted prices (you can check them at online.kitco.com) include a premium that reflects a markup over the spot price of gold and any applicable fabrication fees for processing gold into bars. Shipping costs $30 (Canadian) per order, with an additional $4 per $1,000 in order size to cover insurance.


    You'll need a place to safely store your gold, maybe a safe in your home or a bank safety deposit box. Obviously, there are liquidity issues here. Gold and coin dealers will buy your bullion, but you'll have to transport the gold to the firm doing the buying.


    A less cumbersome option is to invest in gold certificates and gold bullion funds. The certificates represent an interest in gold stored by a dealer, which eliminates storage problems but doesn't really address the problem of not being able to quickly sell your holdings because you'll still need to take them to a gold dealer.


    For the ultimate in buy-and-sell flexibility, take a look at two new exchange-traded funds that act as a substitute for a direct investment in gold bullion. The StreetTracks Gold Shares (GLD-NYSE) and the iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU-American Stock Exchange) invest directly in bullion and their unit prices directly reflect changes in gold prices, minus fees (both have management expense ratios of 0.4 per cent).


    ETFs trade like stocks, which means these two gold funds can be bought and sold any time during market hours. Also, you can short them if you want to bet on falling gold prices.


    There's a mutual fund that works along the same lines as these ETFs -- the Millennium BullionFund, which holds gold, silver and platinum bars that are stored in the vaults of a major bank. A closed-end fund -- basically a mutual fund that is listed on a stock exchange -- with much the same mission is the Central Fund of Canada (CEF.NV.A).


    The easiest way to invest in gold for most people is to buy a precious metals mutual fund. Mr. Merkelbach uses these funds extensively and has four favourites -- AGF Precious Metals, Dynamic's Canadian and global precious metals funds, Mackenzie Universal Precious Metals and Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals. His main criteria for choosing a fund? The manager.


    "The best manager that I have found today is John Embry at Sprott Asset Management," Mr. Merkelbach said. "He is a seasoned manager, and he understands the market."


    Precious metals funds are widely accessible -- most bank families have them, for example -- but they're not ideal for short-term investing. The reason is that virtually all fund families have commissions of 1 to 3 per cent that apply if you sell your holdings within 30 to 180 days of purchase. Don't buy one of these funds without checking the prospectus for the lowdown on short-term trading fees.


    Precious metals funds usually hold the shares of gold-mining companies, which themselves are a liquid and sometimes lucrative way to benefit from rising gold prices. In fact, the share price of gold producers sometimes moves higher than the actual price of gold.


    The reason is leverage, or the opportunity for gold miners to gain or lose in a big way from relatively moderate moves in gold prices. If a gold producer makes $50 an ounce in profit today and gold prices rise by $50, then the company's profits have doubled. If you own bullion, a $50 increase from today's level amounts to 10.6 per cent. That's the theory, anyway. In reality, gold producers sometimes lag the price of bullion because their profits are eroded by rising costs.


    Mr. Whetham of the Scotia Resources Fund said three of his favourite gold stocks right now are:


    Barrick Gold (ABX-T): Barrick is the biggest gold producer listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and it also offers significant production growth as a result of new mines coming into production. "It's hard to argue with Barrick just because of the size and quality of their assets," Mr. Whetham said.


    Bema Gold (BGO-T): Solid upside potential as a result of a big gold discovery in Russia that should provide good growth potential over the longer term.


    Goldcorp (G-T): Good assets, plus a desire to make acquisitions and $1-billion in funds to pay for them.


    If you want to buy gold shares but don't want to be a stock picker, consider the iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index Fund, or iGold (XGD-T). This ETF holds shares in 17 gold producers, with Barrick and Goldcorp dominating as a result of their weightings of 25 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.


    Whatever vehicle you choose for riding the gold rally, be prepared for wicked volatility and confusingly contradictory forecasts from pundits. The only certainty is that gold can amaze you with its returns in good years and then bury you when things go bad. 8)


    Moiling for gold


    While some might argue that owning gold over the long term is the definition of investing hell, good money is made in gold periodically and right now could be one of those times.

    "Gold's a devilish sort of thing," :D


    Das wird sich ganz besonders naechste Woche zeigen.


    "The only certainty is that gold can amaze you with its returns in good years and then bury you when things go bad. "


    Eine Woche reicht auch schon.


    Are you ready ???


    Mfg


    XAX


    The Guru said last week and was right so far. :rolleyes:



    "RITA WON'T MAKE THAT MUCH DAMAGE"


    DON'T SHORT METALS FOR THE ANOTHER FOUR TRADING DAYS BUT START BOOKING PROFIT NOW AS WEAK TREND IN METALS WILL START SOON SO TRADE ACCORDINGLY. GOLD SHOULD FALL ON THURSDAY AFTER HIGH. WATCH MY TWO IMPORTANT FIGURE $478.80 AND $481.80. ONE CAN BOOK 100% AT THIS FIGURE, TIME IS WARNING TO GOLD AFTER FOUR TRADING SESSION.


    So ab Mittwoch diese Woche..... ?( wird sich einiges zeigen.
    Freitag ist dann der Tage der Entscheidungen, IMHO

    Something is not right...something is up, possibly a crisis ?(


    Chris Laird


    In the last weeks, gold has marched up, oh, about 40 bucks... and in a very resolute and rapid manner....


    Now, we all know that I have been writing about a year about the deflationary forces that will emerge.... and that will indeed happen...but first we may have inflation. Inflation is one major cause of deflations. But this last gold spike cannot be just relegated to inflation as of now, or massive speculative playing... gold has just moved too far and too fast for that.


    If I was to use only economic arguments, I do not see enough reasons for gold to have moved so swiftly and so far.


    There has to be some exogenous reason, some crisis in the background other than the usual economic suspects. (that is not to say the usual economic suspects are not severe, and that in time they will drive gold out of site)


    What can cause this kind of movement in gold? Something new must be in the works, some semi hidden crisis... I am serious.



    more....


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird092405.html

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    What kind of player are you ?


    Investing has many similarities to poker. For example: A small minority of professionals take the lion's share of profits. The house takes its cut from all comers with ironclad regularity. Odds allow for confidence, but never certainty - there is no hand that can't be beaten, no hand that cannot win. Both games are heavily influenced by luck in the short run, yet dominated by skill and consistency in the long run. And success is rarely the result of any one large decision; it is rather the result of countless small decisions, built into an accumulated edge over time.


    The typical poker player reverts to the style he or she is most comfortable with in live play. This lack of variation gives the professional an edge, highlighting the best way to take the amateur's money. Poker predators usually assign one of three classifications to their prey: Maniac, Rock, or Calling Station. Of these three, the Calling Station is prized as the most reliable source of funds. The Maniac is dangerously aggressive, and often too hot;[ the Rock is notoriously tight-fisted, and usually too cold; but the lukewarm Calling Station is just right.


    A passive aggressive type, ?( the Calling Station has no grasp of strategy, yet feels compelled to participate. He or she is happy to call the majority of bets, rarely raising or taking control of the hand. Analysis is minimal, actions robotic. The Calling Station's attitude can be summed up as, "I don't really know what I'm doing, but I'm just glad to be here." A streak of good cards will occasionally reward this hapless style of play, but odds inevitably prevail over time. The Calling Station thus provides a steady stream of revenue for those who understand the importance of strategy and put it to use.


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/litle092305.html

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    All,


    wenn man sich die Geschichte des Goldes betrachtet,kann man feststellen die Blütezeit einer Kultur oder Volkes war immer mit dem Gold verbunden.In der Vergangheit wanderte Gold von Ost nach West und über all dort kam das Volk zur Blüte, erst Asien, dann Europa.dann Amerkia und jetzt wandert Gold wider nach Osten zurück ,wir werden dort in einigen Jahren wieder einne blühende Wirtschaft erlebeen.Es deutet sich ja bereits an.


    einen schönen Sonntag


    wünscht hpoth

    Und so schliesst sich der Kreis Hpopth, ebenso einen schoenen Sonntag wuensche ich Euch. ;)
    Rastet Euch aus fuer die naechste Woche, die wird bestimmt interessant und turbulent werden.


    XAX

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    @Aladin/hpopth


    Wie schön,daß es unabhängig vom Aufenthalt,ob Kapstadt,St.Moritz,
    oder anderswo,so richtig rund ging und weitergehen wird.


    Hier grüßt ein Nordlicht nach schöner Wanderung über Feld,Wald und Hügeln
    bei schönstem Herbstwetter und wünscht dankend ebenso eine gute Zeit! :]


    Grüsse
    Edel Man

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Für alle Silberfans ein Muß mE.!
    Grüsse


    Der Schlußabsatz:
    **********************************
    That being said, and with silver's very bullish fundamentals (and the seasonals possibly starting to also kick in), I am optimistic about silvers performance for the rest of the year.
    **********************************
    Kultaketus

    Bin mir auch "fast sicher" das Silber oder (Aktien) nun besser laeuft als Gold, da gibt es bald eine Abwechslung. :]


    Die 6.80 USD gehoeren der Vergangenheit an !


    430 bei Gold ! :]


    "Rockbottom".... Brothers in Arms !


    Don't lose your faith, we'll win the battle against the PPT.


    Hang in .... ;)



    Mfg


    XAX

    9 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    Lachhaft, nach dem die Israelis aus dem Gaza sind wird der Hass nicht gestoppt und nie Frieden herrschen im mittleren Osten. Erst von der Inside, jetzt kommt der Apache Helicopter von the "outside".


    Wie heisst es so schoen, from the inside out !
    Oder outside in ? :D


    South Africa stellt sich auf die selbe Seite wie die Russen und Chinesen bei der Abstimmung der AEO wegen Iran's Nuklear Politik was zeigt man geht gegen die USA. Man hat nicht mitgestimmt !


    Rita kostet weniger als Katrina, der Zoff Weltweit geht weiter.


    Don't go the South-East Texas for the time being.


    Kurznachrichten, mal zwischendurch, mir ist bestimmt nicht langweilig. :]



    Gnight, brace yourself for the next week, it might be another one like Rita.



    XAX

    5 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    • Offizieller Beitrag
    Zitat

    Original von Aladin

    Don't lose your faith, we'll win the battle against the PPT.


    Die Zuversicht stirbt nie bei uns,letztlich sind wir am langen Hebelarm,sicher. :]


    Grüsse und Gnight!

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