Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Sieht fast aus wie die "Goldene Lade",bevor die hochgeht und alles wegpustet :]!
(In einem Abenteuerfilm mit Harrison Ford.)

Gute Nacht ebenfalls,und guten Morgen:

"...daß so manches,
was auf Zutrauen und Hoffnung gesät wird,
die allerbesten Früchte bringt."
GOETHE An Johanna Maria Welber, 19.9.1819

Nun ja,ist so ne Sache mit "Geocosmic Signatures".
Der 1.10. taucht immer wieder mal auf,mal sehen.

Immerhin: "Hope is the force that keep us forward."

Und mit den bevorstehenden "bancrupties"stimmen wir seit längerem überein.

Grüsse

Sehr lesenswert,v.a.für Goldfans.

Die Schlussabsätze:
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Wenn Gold über 1.000 USD notiert, dann wird Gold beginnen die Titelblätter zu beherrschen und Ihr Nachbar wird Sie zu Ihrem letzten Goldkauf beglückwünschen. Dann wird die explosive dritte Phase gezündet, die uns zu Kursen weit über 1.000 USD pro Unze führen wird. Hier gilt dann die Devise: „Rette sich wer kann!“ Doch bis es soweit ist, sollten Sie über eine Ausdehnung Ihrer Engagements am Goldmarkt nachdenken.

Fazit:

Wenn die Party am schönsten ist, möchte man zwar nicht dran denken, dass es wieder abwärts gehen könnte, aber man sollte es zumindest nicht vergessen. Ein Crash an den Aktien-, Renten- oder Immobilienmärkten würde in der jetzigen Wirtschaftssituation zu einem Dominoeffekt führen, der sehr große Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft haben könnten. Edelmetalle würden von solch einer Situation ebenso profitieren und bieten dem Anleger somit zurzeit das beste Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis. Warten Sie nicht bis Ihr Nachbar Ihnen empfiehlt Gold zu kaufen, …
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Hausse

Die Vorgänge in NY werden für manchen immer undurchsichtiger:

Gold fällt (oder wird......) und die Lease Rates steigen......

Ein sehr komplexes Thema!
Gute Erklärung hierzu siehe:
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Lease Rates Tell Tales
Gold has long been available for lease. Recently, leased gold has played an important role in the practice by some gold mining companies of shorting their own product, to the detriment of shareholders. While this practice may have started innocently as a means to hedge risk in a down market, for some it quickly degenerated into an orgy of speculation, with some mines betting against as much as a decade of future production. By leasing gold very cheaply, then shorting it, they hoped to profit from the difference between today's price and a lower future price. Other participants in leasing include hedge funds, bullion banks, and others who seek to manipulate the market in order to protect these powerful interests who positioned themselves to profit from a continued decline in the price of gold.

These disgraceful practices, often discussed on the pages of Gold-Eagle and by crusaders such as Bill Murphy of the Gold Anti Trust Action League (GATA), have recently been exposed and discredited. Yet the market manipulation continues.

In his January 21st commentary, Murphy observed that gold lease rates are "the lowest I can recall" (see Figure 1).

Maybe so, but by graphing the data over time and noting correlations with recent events that are known to affect warehouse gold supplies, we may gain more insight about the gold market's dynamics. In fact, a graph may reveal additional predictive powers for the lease rate, far beyond those normally ascribed to it. We may be able to more accurately predict when the price of gold will lift off.

Although today's rates are indeed low, even more striking is the unusually wide and uniform spread between short-term and long-term interest rates: 0.56% for a one-month lease versus 1.7% for one year, with other rates distributed evenly between.

Notice that at certain times (right after the third Bank of England action, for example), the lease rates for various terms were "bunched up," with little difference between them. At other times (say, mid-October through mid-November of 1999), a substantial gap separated the one-month rates from any longer term.

Let us examine a hypothesis that might account for these differences: that lease rates express the probability of future gold availability. The probabilities are assigned by the most knowledgeable players: the bullion banks, central banks, and gold traders ý the insiders. In effect, gold lease rates can give us an unprecedented window on the manipulators' inside knowledge.

Naturally short-term rates are usually lower than longer-term rates, because a lessor can more confidently predict the immediate future than the remote future. Movement of all rates down together indicates a copious supply that players think more than sufficient to meet anticipated needs. Upward movement as a group indicates a clear and present shortage of physical gold with no relief in sight.

Timing signals arise when rates diverge. Let's examine an example of divergence.

During the month leading up to the third BoE action on November 29th, it was widely known that 25 tonnes of gold would hit the market. Therefore, during November the one-month lease rates were exceptionally low at 0.74% (see Figure 3). Right after the auction, however, one-month rates joined the other lease terms averaging 1.85%. In fact, the one-month rates actually overshot a little to 2.13% before rebounding to 1.76% on November 30th.

So from this perspective, an alternate interpretation of today's low-but-divergent rates (Figure 1) is that players in the gold market are rather certain about the availability of physical gold over the next few months, but at longer maturities they are quite uncertain.

The near-term certainty reflects the highly publicized BoE auction scheduled for January 25th, as well as known (to the insiders anyway) plans to mobilize gold resources from various central banks and other sources. The longer-term uncertainty indicates that resources to continue the manipulation game are drying up.

One couldn't ask for a clearer picture of the coming short squeeze. Just look at the least rates. The market manipulators will prolong the game for just as long as possible, and ý for the moment ý it looks as if they are very confident they will remain in control for a few more months.

This interpretation is supported by recent changes in open interest data. Again quoting GATA's Murphy, "The gold spreads continue to widen (back months gaining on nearby months) and our floor sources think that is a bullish signal ý the open interest continues to shrink (down another 2,973 contracts yesterday to 145,564 contracts outstanding)." Options force data, based on tracking total puts minus total calls, researched by a regular Gold Forum contributor, also supports this conclusion.

Together, these indicators (lease rates and open interest) suggest that gold prices will remain in a range for one or two or ý I hesitate to utter such a distasteful phrase ý maybe even as long as six more months ý but everybody knows that eventually, the game is up.

At that time, gold lease rates will again make a dramatic ballistic ascent, as they did in late September of 1999. Gold will hit an out-of-the park grand slam home run with the bases loaded.

Buy your season tickets to the gold extravaganza of your lifetime now, because at game-time, even the scalpers won't have any seats left to sell, at any price. No one ý not even the most knowledgeable insiders ý knows exactly when this will occur, but it will surely happen.

We goldbugs' faith in the natural economic laws of supply and demand has been sorely tested, but with each reduction in the supply of easily-mobilized physical gold such as tomorrow's BoE auction, we move ever closer to the day of reckoning. Our faith will be vindicated.

Be there, or be square!

Marcia Peters
January 22, 2000
Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.A.

Troisdorf

Siehe auch hier:

Das paßt:

Huiiiiiiiiiiiii