Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

HI-HO, SILVER!

by The Mogambo Guru

The economy is not growing, and is instead showing definite signs of
severe debt-related stress. Consumer spending is down, even as health
care, housing and taxes go up.

From a business investment standpoint, it is really ugly out there, which
means risky, which means you will probably stand a better chance of making
money by sending the cash to me, in a plain envelope, addressed to
"Resident," and then waiting by the phone for me to call and tell you how
much money you made.

Now, I hang my head in shame and admit I have no idea what to do about all
of this. Fortunately, Dr. Richebächer does. He says, "We expect shocking
economic weakness. All asset prices, depending on carry trade, are in
danger, including bonds." So sell 'em all, unless you want to be sitting
on something dangerous.

So, what do you buy instead? Mark Faber, who writes the famous Gloom, Doom
and Boom Report, says that commodities of all kinds have surged here in
the last couple of years, except, notably, grains. "In fact," he says,
"grains are at a 200-year low vis-à-vis oil." At this, your Super
Sensitive Mogambo Investing Senses (SSMIS) should have sprung to full
alert, ("Beep! Beep! Beep!") when you heard that something that everyone
needs is at a 20-year low against something else that everyone needs, too.

Apparently, Dr. Faber has a well-developed SSMIS himself, and will not
benefit from the Mogambo Super Sensitive Investing Sense Home-Training Kit
as he instantly intuits, "As a long-term investor I would also consider
buying some agricultural commodities."

Well, if you have ever tried to trade commodities or store soybeans in
your garage, you know what a hassle it is. And you already know what a
lazy little creep I am, so doing that much work is really, really, really
out of character for me. No, what I want to do is buy something now, when
prices are low, store it away somewhere that has no commissions to be
paid, no account maintenance fees, no inactivity fees, and in short, there
is nothing for me to do and nobody is taking so much as a damned dime from
me for any reason, less they get a dose of old Doctor Twelve-Gauge for
their trouble.

And nothing fits the bill like precious metals...I suppose any metals:
Copper Molybdenum, Uranium. You name it, especially gold and silver
(doubly especially silver). I bring this up especially because I was just
at the Silver Summit in Wallace, Idaho, at the kind invitation of David
Bond, who will probably lose his job because of it. I spent a delightful
time ranting and raving, and meeting a lot of really nice people, and
trying in vain to play boogie-woogie music on the fiddle behind the
talented Steve Dore on piano and embarrassing myself in more ways than
one. As a result of this sudden explosion of sensory overload, I am now
even more convinced that the upside potential of silver, as a percentage,
is staggering, and almost guaranteed to happen.

Secondly, I am convinced that I like being around people who understand
the importance of owning precious metals, since they do not introduce me
as, "Uncle Mogambo, who is a gold bug and a real first-class lunatic, so
don't stand so close to him or you might catch his cooties or get his
drool all over your nice shirt."

But this is not about my cooties, dammit! It's about silver! I mean, the
stuff is selling at just over seven lousy dollars per freaking ounce! When
gold is selling at over $460! Most of the gold ever mined is still around.
Most of the silver ever mined is all gone, and demand is higher than
supply for the zillionth month in a row. And while gold has few uses
beyond wealth preservation and jewelry, silver has myriad industrial
applications.

Well, just between you and me, and don't let this get around, but to be
entirely truthful, all of that is so much blah blah blah to me. What
impresses me most of all is the historical ratios of silver to other
things, like gold, oil, food, or anything else you can get data on. In
every case, and I am talking Every Freaking Case As Far As I Can Tell
(EFCAFAICT), in all of history, silver is at historic lows when compared
to everything else. And when something is at historical lows, then there
is only one way for the price to move: Up.

OK, but it is knowing the historical ranges of these ratios that tells you
how high silver might go, right? Right! So, because you are so smart and
thus you are my little teacher's pet, you immediately raise your hand with
a question. With a beneficent smile of loving indulgence beaming in my
Mogambo face, I point to you, and you say, in that delightful way that you
have, "How high has silver gotten, your worshipful Mogambo-ness?"

Well, my little grasshopper, you will be surprised to know that there have
been times when silver traded at a premium to gold. So, if this were one
of those times, silver would be at over $470 per ounce. It is selling for
about $7 right now. So dividing 7 into 470, which is probably easy for
you, but difficult for me because I am so stupid (audience shouts "How
stupid, Mogambo?") that I have to get out the instructions to turn the
damned calculator on. I figure that the answer is, I hope, around 67. Your
investment, if you bought silver now and the price rose to more than gold
right now, would have a return of 6,700%! I have heard of lots
often-bagger investment, but a potential 67-bagger? Wow! Truly rare!

So, the upside of silver is so high that it boggles the mind that you can,
right now, today, this very minute, get up off of your fat backside,
grunting and complaining about your aching back, and simply walk over to a
phone or a computer and buy all the silver you want at a lousy seven bucks
and change per ounce! As Mike Maloney of Gold & Silver, Inc. put it,
silver is "stupid cheap!" I immediately translated that as an insult to
The Mogambo, who is both stupid and cheap, but when he calmed me down and
soothingly explained it a dozen times or so, I finally understood it to
mean that if you are not buying silver on the cheap, then you are stupid.
Being stupid, of course, I was not buying silver. But after learning that
I could appear to be smart by buying silver, I got a little.

Well, unfortunately, nobody was fooled for a minute. But a few people did
agree that because I was buying silver, I appeared to be slightly less
stupid than I really am, but still, unfortunately, stupid, which, being
stupid, I did not understand. I still have the silver, and so should you,
whether or not you are stupid. And if you think that you are not stupid,
then I will rudely point out that you are obviously reading the stupid
Mogambo Guru, and that doesn't say very much for you or your stupid choice
of reading material.

Regards,

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Mahendra lese ich auch nur noch zur Unterhaltung - in letzter Zeit taugt er ja schon fast als Kontraindikator...

@ Troisdorf

Zitat

ps, dass es bei Silberinfo.de nur kurze Schwierigkeiten mit dem Server sind, möchte ich doch mittlerweile bezweifeln. Keine Meldung, nichts dergleichen. Nun schon seit mehr als einer Woche nicht erreichbar.
Ich denke, die haben aufgegeben.

Wieso das, sie sind doch schon seit letztem Mittwoch wieder on. Nur das Forum musste man zwischenzeitlich von der Hauptseite aus abrufen, wegen der Serverumstellung...
Aber in ihren Informationsmails haben sie ja alles erklärt und ich finde die Entschädigung (1 Freimonat) ganz ok. Zusätzlich habe ich im September den Brief gekriegt, obwohl ich nur für den Online Bereich abonniert bin.
Finde ich auch eine kulante Geste...

Wenn Du ihre Info-Mails nicht gekriegt hast, würde ich sie mal anmailen...

@ valueman

Danke für den Denver-Bericht

Das Silber Institut versucht die Nachfrage nach Silber zu stimulieren:

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/496148.htm

Kann sich das von Euch jemand anhoeren und hier darueber berichten ?

Dear Member

I have mentioned a couple of times in my newsletters, that a financial product will be launched, that I will manage. Today, time has come to inform you, that ABN AMRO will launch the "Wave of Nature Strategy Certificate". I will be the strategy manager of this innovative product solution. The issue size is limited to USD 50 M. I will start to manage the strategy 31 October. I have to tell you that this product is dedicated to very professional (banks, family offices and independent asset managers) only. One counterparty who wants to invest into the strategy/certificate has to invest minimum USD 1 million. I will be on road-show together with ABN AMRO on the following dates:

13 October, Zurich, luncheon presentation, 11:30 a.m., Widder Hotel (Widdersaal)
13 October, Zug, dinner presentation, 6:45 p.m., Rest. zum Kaiser Franz im Roessel
14 October, Zurich, cocktail presentation, 11:30 a.m. Zunfthaus zur Meisen
17 October, Frankfurt, dinner presentation, 6 p.m. Frankfurter Hof

If you are interested to participate at one of those presentations, please send an e-mail to the following address of ABN AMRO: abnamro.pip@ch.abnamro.com . Please indicate your full contact details. ABN AMRO will then contact you directly.
IMPORTANT: Please note, that space for the presentations is limited. The presentations in all locations are for professional investors only. You are only invited, when you have received an invitation-e-mail by ABN AMRO.

Now I can imagine, that some among you may be disappointed, that this product is dedicated to big clients only. But I am keepig also common invetsor's in mind and may plan some thing interesting.

Thanks & God Bless
MAHENDRA

I receive so many emails and faxes every time gold reacts that you would think I was television’s Frasier Crane listening to problems on his mental health radio show. The truth is “I am listening and trying to guide you into better performance."

For the hard core gold investors, sitting tight is all you need to know. For the aggressive investor who sells 1/3 of their gold-related position into strength TA correct and buys back that 1/3 in the same manner, a review is apparently required.

Some complain they sold too soon and then wonder if they will get it back. Others who held tight are now upset because they missed a temporary top.

TA correct is the key to proper timing. To keep this absolutely simple all you need to do is understand the use of a simple trend line. All you require is a straight edge and a sharp pencil. As long as the trend line and power uptrend line holds - regardless of an overbought situation - you hold tight. When the power uptrend line breaks, you cut your position by 1/3. The opposite is the way back regardless of what your selling price was. It is so simple that I cannot for the life of me understand why so many of you who call yourselves aggressive investors fail to use this approach.

I am going to annotate a selection of gold share charts using this dirt simple method once again, imploring you to use a discipline that will at least reduce your risk. Any reduction of risk is an improvement in the potential for profit.

Edel Man, das mit den lease rates hat was auf sich, ein schoenes Zeichen das man am Radl draht.

Wen es interessieren sollte, ich habe das Gefuehl das der HUI bis 215 fallen koennte, erst Recht in Sympathie mit dem Dow Jones der dreistelling gefallen ist. Bald gibst wieder eine Zinserhoehung und dann unter die 10.000 ruck zuck. Im schlimmsten Fall HUI 205 aber nur kurz.

Sogar die PAL ist mit 7% gefallen, ich Trottel kauf die noch ein Tag vorher.

Bei HUI 220 versuche ich wieder nachzuladen falls Cash vorhanden ist.

Ich hoffe der Boden haelt von ca. 220 HUI , damit ich gut schlafen kann.

50% vom Anstieg der letzten drei Monate kann weg sein in wenigen Wochen. Eine unsichere Zeit kommt auf die Maerkte, es zieht die Commodities und deren Aktien mit. eventuell auch $/Euro 1.18

Also abwarten und durchhalten heisst es nun fuer die Gold/Silverbugs.
Von dort gehts auf die 280 und naeher zu Indy 500.

Gold kann auf 456 runter fallen wenn der PPT mit allen anderen schiessen was sie haben. Falls es auf 430 gehen sollte so viel Gold koennen sie gar nicht anschleppen was gekauft wird in Asien.

Silber max 7.15 USD, man kann begruenden das weniger verbraucht wird in einer Rezession.

Der Dow Jones soll angeblich richtig fallen >10.000 am 14 October bis 10 November, laut Astro Merrimar.

Nur so nebenbei bemerkt, weil sonst keiner was sagt im Moment.

Das Schweigen der Laemmer ?

Lets go on a holiday.

Good luck and Gnight

XAX

Hallo Aladin

denke auch, dass eine Korrektur anstehen könnte... es riecht aktuell sehr danach. Wäre abgesehen auch eine gesunde Entwicklung: es läuft doch immer so bei einem Bullen - drei Schritte vorwärts und zwei zurück.
Könnte mir auch durchaus vorstellen, dass Gold wieder auf 435 udn der HUI unter 200 geht.

Aber dann... geht es vielleicht schnell wieder auf 500$/Unze!

GO GATA!!!

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in London for the third trading session in four on speculation that hedge funds and other large speculators will sell their holdings in the metal…-END-

The Planet Wall Street explanation early this morning of why gold came in lower today is par for the course. The dollar was weaker, oil slightly higher, nat gas through the roof, and the US stock market was hit fairly hard the night before. So now the long hedge funds are going to get out? This is contrary to all I know. Many more of the specs are in this at the present time for a big picture macro bet. They are not going to get out of the trade to make a few bucks when so much is on the line as we sail into treacherous October.

The Bloomberg article is nothing more than Gold Cartel disinformation in an attempt to influence the market on the downside. If they can bring in enough selling and bring gold down enough, it could turn some of the "fast funds" or some black box traders. This could take gold lower enough to allow the cabal forces to cover some shorts, as they have been doing all the way up.

For all that "selling in London" the AM Fix was $465.25, only slightly lower than the Comex close the day before. As usual, The Gold Cartel began to sell as the Comex session approached. It was another volatile session with the cabal succeeding in taking bullion down over $3 to $462.10. However, like yesterday (and unlike what occurred so often over the past 7 years), gold surged right back. Buyers were in there waiting for The Gold Cartel to go into action.

When was the last time Café members can recall gold being "on the ropes" in back-to-back trading sessions, only to climb back from a hole? This suggests the new buyers know exactly what The Gold Cartel is going to try and do and they are there waiting for them. Thus, the selling dries up, the locals are forced to cover, and the exasperated Gold Cartel is left scratching its head. Two grins, two days in a row.

If December gold can print $475, it should accelerate towards $500.

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C5

Funny animal silver spent the trading session rejecting lower prices and rallied late to close on the high of the Comex session. Still think silver readying for a substantial move higher. Could come any day now.

The silver chart is more constructive than the gold one. Like Rhody, I smell something is up here. Same sort of smell I mentioned weeks ago. The scent is getting stronger.

December silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C5

There was some unwinding of long gold/short silver spreads today. The silver open interest rose 749 contracts to 125,742.

Spoke with our STALKER source today, who had the following information for Cafe members while I was in Toronto, most interesting:

*STALKER buying groups 1 and 2 have been steady buyers of physical gold on all breaks for some time now. Our source believes even more strongly that they are surrogates for the Chinese Government.

*Chinese retail buying has really picked up as of late. The Chinese public has started to buy gold from the official outlets set up by their government.

*The real architect behind the financial market pressure for change in Saudi Arabia is King Abdullah’s son who is 50+ years of age. This is significant as he will be around for some time to come. The STALKER groups are watching the developments in Saudi Arabia to play out, believing them to be very bullish for gold.

One more reason why gold is so bullish:

A good friend of mine is loaded up with gold shares. He also owns gold and silver bullion, but is more oriented to the shares, which are quite substantial. We were going over the gold market this morning and we discussed the sentiment numbers, which are so dismal. The fact the attendance at the Toronto gold conference was mediocre and lack of interest in the smaller golds are prime examples to prove the point.

He then said when he discusses the markets with people and talks about gold, he no longer is "dissed." Now, he receives a favorable reaction. I then asked, "How many of those folks were long gold, or the shares?" He replied, "NONE!"

What that means is an entire universe of buyers is out there who will become gold/gold share owners in the months ahead. On top of that, it is very difficult to find a short-term bull among the gold market pundit crowd. Most are cowed by the "commercial" shorts. Because The Gold Cartel and friends have bombed the market over the past year and buried rallies, the gold commentators and market timers are in the same camp in their belief the shorts will win the day once again.

My bet is the opposite. Growing gold demand around the world is making life very difficult for the bad guys. The odds are becoming more favorable by the day we are coming closer to our long awaited Commercial Signal Failure.

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

We told you the professionals would get interested at about $500 per ounce gold, and they have. Here are the first mainline analysts to pop up once gold hit $479.00 in electronic trading a week ago.

Prudential technical analyst Ralph Acampora said, “Gold’s spike to 17-year highs should not deter investors from buying gold. He believes gold is headed toward $507 an ounce. Most of the technical indicators suggest that despite an accelerated trend in price, gold is not overbought. Hence, any hesitation is deemed a buying opportunity.” Acampora envisions the price rising even further in the long term as gold continues on an upward path it has followed upward for the last four years.

JP Morgan Chase‘s global strategist Jon Bergtheil sees some interruptions, but over the long term he thinks the price will move steadily higher because gold’s drivers are now a lot more secular and a lot less cyclical. “We now expect gold to breach $500 during 2006 and to hold these new higher levels through the balance of the decade.”

Citigroup analyst John Hill is also bullish for fundamental reasons. “We expect gold to work its way higher and fully expect a test of $500 an ounce in coming months. We believe supply and demand builds a base for the next round of macro/monetary and investment catalysts to enter the market at high price levels.”

Ladies and gentlemen, gold has arrived. Last week it was Citigroup that recommended gold for a move to $500. This week it’s Prudential and JP Morgan Chase. That tells us the central banks are close to being out of gold. The jig is up. That doesn’t mean the gold suppression cartel won’t attack again with derivatives, but it does mean we are on our way.
The pros are catching on. Gold is a protection against the erosion of fiat money and the rise of inflation. It also guards against a decline in stocks, bonds and real estate. 2006 will begin a new fall in the dollar, not only against other currencies, but also versus gold. That trend has already begun in gold and in the other currencies.

We, who saw what pros are beginning to see today, in 2000, have already ridden gold from $275 to almost $480 an ounce and we have made lots of money doing so.

Morgan’s Bergtheil’s comments are telling: the gold drivers are now more about the science of demand and supply than the psychology of fear and uncertainly. That means the cartel is close to being out of gold and we are still some ways away from the fear and uncertainty components.

Now that the mainstream brokerage firms have an interest in gold shares, we could see $850 an ounce for gold in 2006. We charted 62 gold shares in 1992. There are only 14 of those companies till trading. The number of gold shares of all types has shrunk appreciably, which gives the sector lots of leverage. We have a giant three years ahead of us.

It may interest you to know that gold recently hit a 17-year high versus the dollar, a 17-year high versus the euro-D-Mark; and a 9-year high versus the British pound.

Gold has not broken out versus the New Zealand dollar due to a very strong economy and in the case of Canada a strong economy and soaring commodity prices.

The breakout of gold versus most all-important currencies confirms gold’s stature as a bull market.

Under the Washington Agreement for next year only 250 tons of the 500 tons allowed for sale have been spoken for, unless France or Germany decide to sell the yearly sales will be 50% of the allotment.

The World Gold Fantasy Council is considering launching a gold-backed bond.

The WGC Chairman, Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining says, “there will probably be less central bank selling going forward, especially from Europe.” He noted that every 100 tons of additional demand for gold equates to a rise of about $10.00 an ounce in the gold price during a bull market. He believes gold will hit $525.00 an ounce by early next year.

http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1128520871.php

Here we go again, expect the unexpected ! :))