Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Aus Jim Sinclair´s MineSet von gestern:


    Monty Guild gives the Community a Heads Up


    Dear Jim:


    I am forwarding Yardeni’s comments about oil prices staying high, and Greenspan’s theory along the same lines. If correct, they could impact the gold price positively, as money will continue to find a home in commodities instead of paper. I guess the Fed funds will go to 41/2 or 5%.
    It seems to me that now with so many amateurs in the market (ever since the internet bubble) that the market does not discount the future as far in advance as it once did.


    I am buying gold and energy on dips. It is October and as usual people are scared and throwing a lot of good situations away too cheaply. ;)

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Sinclair zur derzeitigen Situation:


    TIC Boosts the US Dollar


    The net foreign capital flow into the US surprised traders as they read the headlines and listened to the "just thrilled" talking heads. The predominant element in this increase was not purchases of US Treasuries by foreign central banks or investors but rather investment in corporate US debt issues. That is not a source that can be counted on or has ever financed a nation’s deficits. Even so, the glee was uncontrollable.

    The real test is at what point US dollar interest rate attraction becomes offset by the growing realization of increased inflation.
    It is getting harder every day for the Fed spinners to keep the public convinced that the USA is enjoying business growth in a non- inflationary world. There will come a point when increased rates lose their dollar-positive impact as the fall in the dollar's buying power overcomes rate attraction.


    The Federal Reserve continues to do its “HAWK TALK” which in itself is a means of creating plausible denial when the economic sins of the past come back to haunt us all. Now Chairman Greenspan is concerned about inflation and the high level of energy as per the article below.


    This is only the first and in fact a modest wave of the inflation that is coming down the road directly at us. The real impact is not a product of energy alone but has a super inflation engine called Bernanke’s Electronic Mayhem Money Printing Press- made in Japan of course. The Fed Chairman has performed magnificently as a creator while the Fed governors were left behind as benign spectators as the train wreck of US finances switched into high gear in 2000.


    There is a point at which the increased cost of money will create Refco-like problems all across the COT board. Nothing so far spoken of is the cause of a one week meltdown of a multi-billion dollar commodity, currency and over-the-counter derivative operator only 60 days old in the public sense. That then is the limit of rates in terms of dollar attraction. Rates will rise higher than expectations but inflation will be the real shocker. This is nothing more than what was experienced in the 1970 debacle but the order of magnitude of dislocations will be so much higher this time around.


    The market will inform us of the point at which inflation becomes a greater influence on the dollar than the interest rate differential between the dollar and other currencies. That shift might have even been today as the dollar bolted on a misinterpretation of the TIC report. We shall see. You have the tools to see if you are willing to use them.

    Der Rückschlag beträgt zur Zeit ziemlich genau 1%.

    Es kommt nicht darauf an, die Zukunft vorauszusagen, sondern darauf auf die Zukunft vorbereitet zu sein. - Perikles

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Zu der Bewertung von Gold und des Fiat - Dollar meinte schon


    Albert Einstein (1879-1955), deutscher Physiker ;)


    "Es gibt zwei Dinge die unendlich sind:
    1.) Das Universum und
    2.) Die Dummheit der Menschen, wobei ich beim Universum meine Zweifel habe."


    Entschuldige,Dich so zitieren zu lassen :]


    Grüsse

    Wäre schön, besitze nämlich längst noch nicht genug Gold.

    Es kommt nicht darauf an, die Zukunft vorauszusagen, sondern darauf auf die Zukunft vorbereitet zu sein. - Perikles

    • Offizieller Beitrag

    Fallender $ bei stark fallendem Gold.
    Wer schlechtes dabei denkt....... :]


    "Funds selling Gold".
    Meine Meinung zu diesen Lemmingen hab ich so oft gesagt.

    Great day :rolleyes:


    Hi Bill:


    Another great day for gold!. Whenever Gold takes a dive like this, which usually coincides with something "bad" like those CPI and PPI numbers recently released or the Refco collapse, I like to think the Gold market is feasting on Central Bank Gold. Let me explain.


    Contrary to what many might think, this is a Gold buyers market. The buyers are in control in the sense that they have unlimited funds (the Central Banks keep printing the stuff and throwing it in all directions) whereas the sellers, the Central Banks, are down to a few thousand tonnes. 10,000 tonnes of Gold at today's prices would cost $148 Billion (US trade deficit is $60 Billion per month). Global investors are sitting on Trillions of Dollars of unredeemable "assets". The buyers can storm the Central Banks with their fiat money but that would stop the selling. The only way to get Gold out of the Central Banks is to patiently wait, then probe to the upside, wait, probe some more until a Central Bank feed comes along like today.


    The only major worry for Gold owners would be a real increase in interest rates. The Fed has been increasing nominal rates but in real terms US rates are still falling. That is, US inflation is rising faster than the Fed is raising rates. US inflation must be more than 8% now, possibly double digits. So we are a long way from that point at which US interest rates would compensate a holder of US Dollar investments for current inflation. Whenever you have negative real rates it makes sense to hoard Gold. And not only Gold...copper, oil, land, art, coins, antique rugs and rare stamps. By coincidence at 5PM this afternoon one of the great treasures of US stamp collecting will be auctioned. see http://www.siegelauctions.com/2005/901/y9011.htm.


    The inverted Jenny Plate Block is estimated to sell for between $2.5 and $3.5 Million. In the running to buy this block is Bill Gross (he already owns 3 other inverted Jenny blocks), Managing Director of Pimco (the world's leading fixed income managers). Bill Gross has an interesting theory about philately which may explain why he has invested such a fortune in rare stamps:
    http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/L…O/2005/IO+August+2005.htm


    As I write the HUI is sitting at 221 with Gold closed at $463.30. Back in March 2004 with Gold at $395 the HUI was at 222. The strange behaviour of the Gold shares over the few months can only be explained by official manipulation. This manipulation is ongoing and has conditioned Gold investors to mistrust any rally (by pressing the sell button) in the same way that DOW or NASDAQ investors disregard any slump (by seeing a buying opportunity). What the manipulators have done is take the excitement away from the Gold shares. They know in advance when Gold will run (and buy the shares) and they know in advance when it will be hit (and sell the shares). But this is only one game within a much deeper game. The manipulators of Gold (see above) do not control Gold. What they control is LIMITED Gold hoards in Central Banks. These hoards are being sold off at an increasing rate. As long as they are willing to sell this Gold at such a HUGE discount to its true value, the Buyers who really control things will wait patiently for the next feed.
    Same with Gold shares where Gold in the ground is now sometimes cheaper than it was in 2001. When this game ends is not predictable. Only one Central Bank has to break ranks and start buying Gold or only one large holder of fiat money assets has to break ranks and demand Gold for the whole thing to end.


    Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener

    2 Mal editiert, zuletzt von Aladin ()

    Gold+Silver
    Nell Sloane's daily comments
    Wednesday Oct 19



    GOLD: Apparently the combination of a soaring Dollar and slumping oil prices has prompted a number of longs to take profits around the globe overnight. With the world equity markets also in a moderate slide again this morning, we can understand the failure in gold, as the potential for slower growth ahead probably means a reduced chance of inflation and a reduction in physical gold demand expectations. Apparently the market is a little disappointed with Indian demand into the key festival season and that might have been the result of moderately higher gold prices, as Indian gold prices have on average held about $50 an ounce above the prior year's pre-festival levels. On the other hand, a rising Indian currency should have served to offset part of that flat price increase. In the end, the market is confronted with a number of negatives and as we suggested early this week, this market was also overextended technically. While many traders expect buyers to surface on a decline in prices, it would not be surprising to see a correction to $467 but fresh longs probably have to risk positions to at least $460 basis the December contract. Certainly the rising Dollar undermines gold but the main overriding force in the bull market is the expectation of inflation and physical buying and that prospect rises and falls with the forward look on the economy! Therefore, we suspect that gold will bottom, once equity prices show signs of recovering.


    SILVER: The silver market is also tracking lower overnight but there would seem to be little support on the charts until $7.695. In the event that gold falls into a full technical correction, it is possible that December silver will fall to even lower support of $7.64. As we suggested last week, the silver market might be a little more vulnerable to a slower economy than the rest of the metals and therefore we can't rule out a slide to $7.60 in the coming sessions. Trend line support off the 2 month old up trend channel is seen at $7.62 to and at $7.65 on Thursday. With open interest sky high from the last two months gains, one has to think that upcoming corrections will prompt a noted increase in price volatility. Traders beware.

    Zitat

    Original von CARLOS


    Ich habe übrigens vor 3 Wochen 20 % meiner Krügerrand in Silber geswitcht. Zu Kursen, die ganz nah am Tageskurs sind. Aufschlag Silber 1,2 %, Abschlag Gold 1,1 %. Und das alles ganz offiziell in Luxemburg bei der KBL-Bank.


    Gruß CARLOS


    Hallo Carlos,


    kannst Du sagen, was aktuell 1 KG Silber bei der KBL kostet. Würde das gerne mit Proaurum vergleichen.


    Danke!

    Puuh, das heute kam aber noch schneller mein "Bauchgefühl" befürchtete.


    Habe im Moment auf meinem Spickzettel
    für Gold:
    460/461
    454/455
    433/436


    Für HUI:
    215
    206 (ca. 200 DMA)
    und heute irgendwo gelesen:
    PO von 194..200


    ich warte jetzt erstmal ein
    paar Tage und schaue mal.


    455 beim Gold und unter 215 beim HUI
    wären für mich ausreichend, um 5% erneut
    zu positionieren.


    Mit weiterem werde ich abwarten, bis ca.
    9. November, zum saisonalen November-Tief.
    Liegt auch zwischen Neumond, Nov. 2 und
    Vollmond, Nov. 16.



    p.s. habe heute ein Paar Kommentare gelesen,
    die den heutigen Tag auf das Refco-Geschehen schoben.
    Absolutely Bullshit. Refco hätte nach oben ausgeschlagen, was
    natürlich noch kommen kann.


    Germoney

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    Ist das ganz links eine umgekehrte S-K-S Formation innerhalb
    der grossen, normalen S-K-S Formation?


    Wenn, wenn der USD die 92,50 nach oben knacken würde,
    dann könnten wir zum Jahresschluss folgendes Szenario
    haben. Steigender Dollar + steigender Goldpreis.
    Sollte dann insbesondere für die Rand-notierten PM-Firmen
    ein guter Hebel sein.


    Klingt das jetzt nicht vollkommen blöde?? Dollar-Bullish??




    Jaah, aber:


    - wenn im Moment einigen von den ganz dicken Banksters das
    Hinterteil auf Grundeis geht, und sie einige ihrer Dollar-Ausleihungen,
    insbesondere an die Hedge-Fonds-Community zurück haben wollen, kann sich
    das durchaus Dollar-stärkend auswirken.
    - oder wie jemand, der dies viel besser als ich es erklären kann, es kürzlich
    ausdrückte:
    --Schulden in einer Währung sind wie ein Shorten der Währung.
    --Werden die Schulden beglichen, kommt es zur Eindeckung, Stärkung der Währung.


    Germoney

    Bilder

    As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are doing,
    because there are almost sure to be too many people doing the same thing.
    William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882)

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von germoney ()

    Hallo,


    ich stehe natürlich nicht ständig in Kontakt mit der KBL. Da der Silberkurs mom. starken Schwankungen ausgesetzt ist, ist das natürlich immer vom Tageskurs zur jeweiligen Uhrzeit abhängig. Leider stellt die KBL die Kurse nicht Online zur Verfügung.


    Momentan (UZ 6,60 $) würde das Kilo ca. 237,- € (incl. MWSt.) kosten. Jedenfalls weit unter den Preisen von Pro Aurum.


    Unter dieser Nummer kannst du dich tagesaktuell aber auch selber informieren:


    Internationale Vorwahl für das Großherzogtum Luxemburg: + 352
    Auskünfte KBL
    Tel: 4797-2020 - Fax: 4797-73911


    Gruß Carlos

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A